#4 BULLETIN 11 May 2021 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis ISSN 2707-1952
MONTHLY REPORT ON FOOD PRICE TRENDS
KEY MESSAGES CONTENTS INTERNATIONAL CEREAL PRICES...... 2 ↗↗International cereal prices followed mixed trends in April. Prices DOMESTIC PRICE WARNINGS...... 3 of maize increased mostly on tightening supplies, but those WEST AFRICA...... 5 of wheat remained steady due to generally adequate export SOUTHERN AFRICA...... 7 availabilities. By contrast, international prices of barley and EAST AFRICA...... 9 EAST ASIA...... 11 sorghum fell slightly, while those of rice declined further on CIS - ASIA AND EUROPE...... 13 currency movements and slow trading activities. CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...... 15 SOUTH AMERICA...... 16 ↗↗In East Africa, prices of coarse grains in the Sudan and South Sudan remained at near-record to record levels, underpinned by insufficient supplies and severe macro-economic difficulties, including local currency weakness sustaining food inflation. Prices of cereals were at high levels also in Ethiopia, mainly due to the continuous depreciation of the country’s currency, which increased transportation and production costs. ↗↗In West Africa, supply chain bottlenecks and difficult macro‑economic conditions amplified the seasonal increases in the prices of coarse grains in Nigeria and sustained them well above their year-earlier levels, particularly in the northeast region where persistent conflict exacerbated the economic challenges. The year-on-year food inflation reached a nearly 16-year high of 23 percent in March 2021.
Domestic price warnings Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]
Argentina | Food items
Brazil | Cereals
Nigeria | Coarse grains
South Sudan | Staple foods
Sudan | Staple foods
Zimbabwe | Food items
Warnings are only included if latest available price data is not older than two months. Source: GIEWS, modified to comply with UN map, 2021.
GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture INTERNATIONAL CEREAL PRICES
Mixed price trends for major cereals in April; quotations for maize resumed an increasing trend, while those for wheat held steady and for rice fell further Following a short respite in March, international prices of maize resumed became increasingly more competitive relative to maize. In the United States their upward trend in April with the benchmark US maize (No.2, Yellow, of America, concerns over crop conditions, a weaker dollar and buying f.o.b.) price rising by 8.0 percent month on month, up almost 83 percent interest from China (mainland) boosted the benchmark US wheat (No. 2, year on year. Tightening supplies, continued strong demand and HRW) price up 2.5 percent in April. By contrast, despite the strong increases lower‑than‑expected planting intentions reported for 2021 production in at the end of the month, slower sales at the start of the month kept wheat the United States of America, contributed to the renewed firmness in these export prices in the Russian Federation (milling, offer, f.o.b. deep‑sea ports), quotations. Prices of maize in Argentina (Up River, f.o.b.) also increased, Ukraine (milling, offer, f.o.b) and the European Union (France, grade 1) lower by 7.4 percent month on month, as harvest progress lagged behind last month on month by 7.4, 7.6 and 2.3 percent, respectively. year’s pace. Unfavourable crop conditions pushed up maize values in Brazil The FAO All Rice Price Index (2014–2016=100) averaged 110.5 points in (Paranaguà, feed) by 5.7 percent, where, in addition, elevated domestic April 2021, down 2.9 percent from March and 3.6 percent below its year‑earlier prices instigated the suspension of maize import duties until the end of level. Trading activities remained slow during April, with persistent logistical 2021. By contrast, prices of barley and sorghum fell slightly in April, by constraints and freight costs continuing to hinder fresh deals. Harvest progress 1.2 percent and 1.6 percent respectively, though they remained 26.8 and in Viet Nam, India and Thailand also contributed to price declines, as did 86.5 percent, respectively, above their values one year ago. currency depreciations in India and Thailand. As a result, prices in April eased International prices of wheat were nearly unchanged from March and across all Asian origins. Declines were steepest in Thailand and Viet Nam, remained around 17 percent higher than their April 2020 values. While which saw export offers fall to five, if not, six-month lows. Declines were more adequate export supplies on top of slow trade activity earlier in the month contained in India, where downward pressure was partly offset by a still good kept prices under downward pressure, the month ended with a strong pace of shipments and a strong start to the “Rabi” procurement campaign. rally in prices, largely driven by crop condition concerns in several major By contrast, in the United States of America, public domestic procurement producers and increased demand from the feed sectors as prices of wheat for food assistance programmes provided support to long grain quotations. International maize prices
US Dollar per tonne Latest Price Percent Change Apr-21 1M 3M 1Y 280 United States of America (Gulf), 260 265.79 8.0 14.2 82.7 Maize (US No. 2, Yellow) 240 220 Black Sea, Maize (feed) 267.50 1.6 5.1 52.6 200 Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, 180 253.50 7.4 -1.4 63.0 f.o.b.) 160 140 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Ukraine, Maize (offer, f.o.b.) 271.60 2.2 6.8 52.8
Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council; APK-Inform Agency International wheat prices
US Dollar per tonne Latest Price Percent Change Apr-21 1M 3M 1Y 300 United States of America (Gulf), 281.25 2.5 -3.5 21.2 280 Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter) 260 European Union (France), 273.00 -2.3 -5.0 22.1 240 Wheat (grade 1)
220 Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, 255.00 -7.4 -10.1 12.3 200 offer, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)
180 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Ukraine, Wheat (milling, offer, f.o.b.) 253.40 -7.6 -10.5 12.5
Source(s): International Grains Council; APK-Inform Agency International rice prices
US Dollar per tonne Latest Price Percent Change Apr-21 1M 3M 1Y 650 600 Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B) 514.25 -5.8 -8.7 -11.7 550 500 Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken) 464.00 -3.5 -4.4 10.5 450
400 India, Rice (25% broken) 369.00 -2.6 -0.8 -0.6 350 300 United States of America, 560.80 1.3 0.3 -11.9 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%) Source(s): Thai Rice Exporters Association; FAO rice price update
For more information visit the FPMA website here
2 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 DOMESTIC PRICE WARNINGS
Countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food
Argentina | Food items Retail food prices on the rise in March Growth Rate (%) The inflation rate forfood items and non-alcoholic beverages continued its Same period to 03/21 increasing trends in March, as prices of dairy products, eggs, cooking oil, meat, average vegetables, tubers and beans registered high monthly increases, more than offsetting the declines in prices of fruits. Food prices increased despite the price 3 months 2.2 2.4 ceiling programme put in place, amid a difficult macro-economic situation, including the sustained weakening of the local currency. As of March 2021, the Argentinian 12 months 1.4 0.4 peso had lost nearly 45 percent of its value compared to 12 months earlier. The programme, first introduced in March 2020 to curb rising prices amid the COVID-19 Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Argentina, Greater Buenos Aires, Retail, Beef meat pandemic, has had its maximum price levels revised upwards twice since then in view of the increasing inflation and was extended until 15 May 2021.
Brazil | Cereals Prices of maize and wheat continued to increase in April and remained at Growth Rate (%) high levels Same period to 04/21 Prices of yellow maize increased in April for the third consecutive month, average underpinned by concerns over the impact of dry conditions on the main crop yields. The upward trends in the international market provided additional pressure and 3 months 7.9 4.8 kept domestic maize prices well above their year-earlier levels. Similarly, prices of wheat continued to increase in April reflecting low seasonal availabilities, coupled 12 months 3.8 1.0 with elevated prices of wheat in Argentina, the country’s main supplier. Prices are
Compound growth rate in real terms. expected to remain at high levels until the start of the 2021 harvest in August. Refers to: Brazil, Mato Grosso, Wholesale, Maize (yellow) Regarding rice, the 2021 harvest is nearing completion and prices declined in April as lower demand from the milling industry more than offset the slow sales by farmers. In April 2021, prices of rice were more than 70 percent higher year on year in the key producing state of Rio Grande Do Sul, following the sustained increases in 2020 on account of the strong domestic and international demand.
Nigeria | Coarse grains Prices of coarse grains at well above year-earlier values Growth Rate (%) Prices of locally produced coarse grains generally increased in March, partly as a Same period result of seasonal upward pressure, exacerbated by strong market demand due to to 03/21 average substantial and localized production shortfalls, particularly in many rural markets where the high transport costs constrain supplementing market availabilities by 3 months 7.9 2.6 imported commodities. Difficult macro-economic conditions, particularly declining foreign exchange reserves, the weak value of the Naira (national currency) and
12 months 3.9 -0.5 high transportation costs, accelerated price increases. Prices were well above their year-earlier values across several monitored markets, reaching over 100 percent Compound growth rate in real terms. in Dawanau market in Kano State for maize. The annual inflation rate continued Refers to: Nigeria, Lagos, Wholesale, Maize (white) to increase for the 19th consecutive month, raising from 17.33 percent in February 2021 to 18.17 percent in March 2021 (the highest since January 2017). The year on year food inflation reached a nearly 16-year high at 22.95 percent in March 2021. In addition, the value of the Naira continued to depreciate by about 17 and 28 percent, respectively, on the formal and parallel markets between March 2020 and March 2021, leading to further pressure on the economy and already poorly performing markets. In northern parts of the country, prices of cereals in March were at exceptionally high levels, mainly due to the lingering impact of the prolonged conflict.
Price warning level: High Moderate For more information visit the FPMA website here
11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 3 DOMESTIC PRICE WARNINGS cont’d
South Sudan | Staple foods Food prices remained firm in April at exceptionally high levels due to the Growth Rate (%) continuous depreciation of the local currency Same period to 04/21 In the capital, Juba, prices of maize, sorghum, cassava, groundnuts and imported average wheat remained firm in April. Nominal food prices were at exceptionally high levels, with those of sorghum and maize more than two times the already high year-earlier 3 months -2.9 -1.8 values and more than 50 times those in July 2015, before the currency collapse. Underlying the high food prices are the continuously difficult macro-economic 12 months 6.1 -0.3 situation, related to low foreign currency reserves, and the continued depreciation
Compound growth rate in real terms. of the country’s currency. In addition, in the past year, COVID-19-related disruptions Refers to: South Sudan, Juba, Retail, Maize (white) to the local markets and trade, already adversely affected by the lingering impact of the prolonged conflict, provided further support.
Sudan | Staple foods Prices of staple foods at very high levels in April despite some declines Growth Rate (%) Prices of locally grown sorghum and millet decreased in April as the devaluation Same period to 04/21 of the Sudanese Pound from SDG 55/USD to SDG 375/USD in late February average (FPMA Food Policy) substantially reduced the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates. This resulted in an increase in transactions of 3 months -12.4 3.1 foreign currency in commercial banks and easing inflationary pressures. Despite the recent declines, prices in April were exceptionally high, about two times the 12 months -6.9 0.7 already elevated year-earlier levels, mainly due to the weakness of the local currency. Prices of cereals began to follow a sustained increasing trend in late Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Sudan, El Gedarif, Wholesale, Sorghum (Feterita) 2017 due to the difficult macro-economic situation, coupled with fuel shortages and high prices of agricultural inputs inflating production and transportation costs. In 2020, disruptions to marketing and trading activities related to the measures implemented to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and to widespread floods, provided further upward pressure on prices.
Zimbabwe | Food items Food price increases slowed further, but prices remained well above Growth Rate (%) year‑earlier levels Same period to 04/21 The official monthly food inflation rate was estimated at 1.7 percent in April, down average from 2.5 percent in March and significantly below last year’s peak of 38 percent. The continued slowdown is largely attributable to the persisting stability of the official 3 months n.a n.a exchange rate since the last quarter of 2020, following the introduction of an auction trading system, which has helped to contain imported inflationary pressure. 12 months n.a n.a Additionally, the substantial quantities of grain imports this year, mostly from South Africa, have helped stabilize domestic supplies and ease supply pressure on prices. Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: imbabwe, arare, Retail, Food items Despite the lower monthly growth rates, food prices remained at significantly high levels and the yearly food inflation rate was estimated at 217 percent in April. The elevated levels generally relate to the effects of a weak currency and rapid growth in money supply. Looking further ahead, harvesting of the 2021 cereal crops is underway and the country is forecast to register a substantial output this year. The increased domestic availabilities of grains are expected to exert downward pressure on prices in the second and third quarters of the year.
Price warning level: High Moderate For more information visit the FPMA website here
4 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 WEST AFRICA
Prices of coarse grains increased seasonally in most countries In most countries of the subregion, prices of domestically produced coarse markets, underpinned by tight domestic supplies and insecurity, hampering grains further strengthened in April and were significantly higher than a year normal market functioning. Prices across the country remained significantly earlier. The elevated price levels remained underpinned by the unceasing above their levels a year earlier due to difficult macro‑economic conditions depreciation of many national currencies bolstering high inflation rates, including high transportation and production costs. measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 as well as steady demand for stock replenishment by traders and humanitarian agencies amidst In coastal countries, prices of maize in Ghana remained relatively stable in localized production shortfalls in October–December 2020 harvests. In April but above their year-earlier values, with above-average institutional addition, persistent civil insecurity continued to disrupt market activities and purchases contributing to the higher year-on-year levels. In Togo, prices trade flows, leading to significant price increases in regions experiencing of maize strengthened in most markets in April, supported by institutional conflict, including Lake Chad Basin, Liptako-Gourma Region, Tibesti Region, purchases to replenish stocks. Similarly, in Benin, strong demand stemming northeastern, northwestern and central Nigeria. from restocking activities by traders and institutional bodies underpinned prices of maize in March. Prices were overall higher year on year supported In Burkina Faso and Niger, the 2020 average cereal harvest provided by below-average market supplies caused by market and trade disruptions adequate supplies for the ongoing marketing year. However, seasonal trends related to COVID-19 restrictive measures. in prices of coarse grains, strengthening for the second consecutive month in April, were exacerbated by sustained demand from households and In Nigeria, prices of locally produced cereals continued to increase in March institutions coupled with localized but persistent insecurity. Prices of imported and were well above their year-earlier levels. The annual inflation rate rice remained overall stable. In Mali, prices of coarse grains remained stable increased for the 19th consecutive month, reaching 18.17 percent (the highest in most markets in April mainly reflecting adequate domestic availabilities. since January 2017), while the year-on-year food inflation hit nearly a 16-year However, price spikes were recorded in northern and central parts of the country peak at 22.95 percent in March. High inflation rates are stemming from the due to insecurity, which led to localized market disruptions. Overall, prices stagnating macro-economic environment, particularly the weak value of the remained well above their year-earlier values across the country supported Naira (national currency) and high transport costs related to high fuel prices. by supply concerns stemming from the flood-induced localized production Additional support to prices is being provided by strong market demand shortfalls in 2020. In Senegal, prices of coarse grains remained stable for the amidst substantial and localized production shortfalls, particularly in many second consecutive month in March mainly due to good domestic supplies rural markets where high transport costs constrain the supplementing of and a steady flow of imports. Prices of cereals were well above their levels a market availabilities by imported commodities. Prices were reported to have year earlier due to COVID‑19‑related restrictions hindering market activities. spiked further in some areas of the northeast due to the high levels of conflict, In Chad, prices of coarse grains continued to increase in March in several leading to significant disruptions to trade flows. Wholesale prices of millet and sorghum in Burkina Faso
CFA Fran BCEA per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M uagadougou, Millet (lo al) . . . . uagadougou, Sorghum (lo al) . . . . dougou, Sorghum (lo al) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr ori, Millet (lo al) . . . .
Sour e(s): Afri ue erte
Wholesale prices of millet and sorghum in the Niger
CFA Fran BCEA per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Niamey, Millet (lo al) . . . . Niamey, Sorghum (lo al) . . . . inder, Sorghum (lo al) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr inder, Millet (lo al) . . . .
Sour e(s): Afri ue erte
For more information visit the FPMA website here
11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 5 WEST AFRICA cont’d
Wholesale prices of millet and sorghum in Mali
CFA Fran BCEA per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Bama o, Millet (lo al) . . . .
Bama o, Sorghum (lo al) . . . . S gou, Millet (lo al) . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr ayes, Sorghum (lo al) . . . .
Sour e(s): Afri ue erte
Retail prices of millet in Senegal
CFA Fran BCEA per g Latest ri e er ent Change Mar M M a ar, Millet . . . .
Saint Louis, Millet . . . .
Louga, Millet . . . .
Mar Jun Sep e Mar Jun Sep e Mar Matam, Millet . . . .
Sour e(s): Agen e Nationale de la Statisti ue et la mographie (ANS )
Retail prices of maize in Benin
CFA Fran BCEA per g Latest ri e er ent Change Mar M M Natitingou, Maize . . . . Cotonou, Maize . . . .
ara ou, Maize . . . . Mar Jun Sep e Mar Jun Sep e Mar
Sour e(s): nstitut National de la Statisti ue et de l Analyse onomi ue ( NSAE)
Wholesale prices of white maize in Nigeria
Naira per g Latest ri e er ent Change Mar M M ano, Maize (white) . . . . Maiduguri, Maize (white) . . . . Lagos, Maize (white) . . . . Mar Jun Sep e Mar Jun Sep e Mar badan, Maize (white) . . . .
Sour e(s): FEWSNE
For more information visit the FPMA website here
6 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 SOUTHERN AFRICA
Prices of maize declined or remained stable in April amid bumper production expectations Prices of maize were stable or declined in April amid the start of the prompted by excellent harvest expectations, with a near-record maize main harvest period, with most countries expected to register large output forecast in 2021. The recent price declines have also helped push cereal outturns in 2021. Prices were also generally lower on a yearly maize grain prices lower on a yearly level and ease overall inflation basis, helping to partly mitigate the adverse economic effects of the rates, given the large weight of foods, and particularly cereals, in the COVID-19 containment measures on households’ incomes, particularly consumer price index. Prices of maize grain in Malawi declined in April for non‑agricultural households. against a backdrop of a forecast record maize crop that is currently being harvested. In Madagascar, prices of rice, the country’s principal food In South Africa, wholesale prices of maize remained unchanged on a staple, generally increased in March, prior to the main harvest period, monthly basis in April; upward pressure from the international market and were about 8 percent higher on a yearly basis. and a weakening of the national currency were countered by favourable domestic supply expectations, anchored on the forecast of a near‑record In Zimbabwe, the monthly food inflation rate continued to fall in maize output in 2021, keeping price levels stable. In the import‑dependent April when it was estimated at 1.7 percent compared to 2.5 percent in countries, Botswana and Namibia, which import the bulk of their grain March, significantly lower than the peak of 38 percent in July 2020. The supply from South Africa, prices of maize meal were mostly stable in slowdown is largely attributable to a more stable official exchange rate March compared to the preceding month, with both countries also since the fourth quarter of 2020, while large import quantities of maize expected to gather ample harvests this year. Pest outbreaks and adverse (the principal food staple) have helped to shore up domestic availabilities weather in parts could cause localized production shortfalls and possible and ease supply pressure on prices. Domestic cereal production is also price hikes in the affected areas, however, expectations of more than forecast to rebound significantly in 2021 following the weather-reduced adequate national supplies are likely to have an overall dampening effect levels of the previous two years and the improved supply situation is on food inflation in 2021. In Zambia, prices of maize grain fell slightly in anticipated to help further contain inflationary pressure for the remainder April for a second consecutive month. The early seasonal declines were of the year.
Wholesale prices of maize in South Africa
Rand per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M
Randfontein, Maize (white) . . . .
Randfontein, Maize (yellow) . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): SAFE Agri ultural rodu ts i ision
Retail prices of maize meal in Botswana
ula per g Latest ri e er ent Change Mar M M . . National a erage, Maize meal . . . . . . . . . . . Mar Jun Sep e Mar Jun Sep e Mar
Sour e(s): Statisti s Botswana
For more information visit the FPMA website here
11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 7 SOUTHERN AFRICA cont’d
Retail prices of maize meal in Namibia
Namibia ollar per g Latest ri e er ent Change Mar M M
Windhoe , Maize meal . . . .
Swa opmund, Maize meal . . . .
t iwarongo, Maize meal . . . .
Mar Jun Sep e Mar Jun Sep e Mar Gobabis, Maize meal . . . .
Sour e(s): Namibia Statisti s Agen y
Retail prices of maize in Zambia
wa ha per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M National A erage, Maize (white) . . . . National A erage, Brea fast maize meal . . . . National A erage, White roller maize . . . . meal Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Central Statisti al ffi e
Retail prices of maize in Malawi
wa ha per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Mzuzu, Maize . . . .
Nsan e, Maize . . . . Liwonde, Maize . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr National A erage, Maize . . . .
Sour e(s): Ministry of Agri ulture and Food Se urity F R
For more information visit the FPMA website here
8 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 EAST AFRICA
Prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in April; exceptionally high levels persist in the Sudan and South Sudan Prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in April. Prices remained conflict and a weak currency. In Uganda, prices of maize unseasonably at exceptionally high levels in South Sudan and the Sudan, reinforced by declined in April, for the second consecutive month, due to reduced exports insufficient supplies and severe macro-economic difficulties, including local to Kenya, its main export destination, which introduced in March enhanced currency weakness underpinning food inflation. Prices of cereals were at food safety standards to control mycotoxin levels. April prices were well high levels also in Ethiopia, mainly due to the continuous depreciation of below their year-earlier levels also due to the lingering impact of the the country’s currency, which has resulted in increased transportation and measures implemented in 2020 to contain the spread of COVID-19, which production costs. By contrast, prices were below their year-earlier levels in constrained livelihood opportunities and resulted in declining purchasing Uganda, Kenya and the United Republic of Tanzania, reflecting adequate power weakening domestic demand. In Kenya, prices of maize increased in market supplies following above-average 2020 cereal outputs. In addition, April, with seasonal patterns compounded by reduced imports from Uganda. a slow economic recovery after the gradual phasing out since mid-2020 However, prices remained below or around their year-earlier values due to of several measures introduced in early 2020 to contain the spread of adequate domestic availabilities from the above-average 2020 “long-rains” COVID-19, continues to weaken demand, exerting downward pressure main harvest, accounting for the bulk of the aggregate cereal production, on prices. which concluded in early 2021 and estimated at 10–15 percent above average. In the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize followed In the Sudan, prices of sorghum and millet decreased in April as a marked mixed trends in April and were below their levels a year earlier in most devaluation of the Sudanese Pound in late February substantially reduced monitored markets. In Ethiopia, prices of locally produced maize moderately the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates, resulting in increased in March in the capital, Addis Ababa, following seasonal patterns, an increase of foreign currency transactions in commercial banks and easing while prices of wheat, partly imported, increased more substantially. Overall, inflationary pressures. Despite the recent declines, prices in April remained cereal prices in March were well above their year-earlier levels, mainly due to exceptionally high, about twice their already elevated year-earlier levels, the continuous depreciation of the country’s currency, which has resulted in due to an overall difficult macro-economic situation and COVID-19-related increased transportation and production costs. In Somalia, prices of maize restrictive measures resulting in transportation bottlenecks. In South Sudan, seasonally increased in March, while prices of sorghum remained firm. Prices prices of maize and sorghum in the capital, Juba, remained firm in April were generally higher than one year earlier on account of a below-average at exceptionally high levels, due to the lingering impact of the prolonged 2020 cereal output due to erratic rains and locust attacks.
Wholesale prices of sorghum and millet in the Sudan
Sudanese ound per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M El Gedarif, Sorghum (Feterita) . . . . El beid, Millet . . . . El Gedarif, Millet . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr El beid, Sorghum (Feterita) . . . .
Sour e(s): Food Se urity information for A tion (S FS A)
Retail prices of maize and sorghum in South Sudan
South Sudanese ound per . g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Juba, Maize (white) . . . . Juba, Sorghum (Feterita) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Crop Li esto Mar et nformation System (CL M S)
For more information visit the FPMA website here
11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 9 EAST AFRICA cont’dc
Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda
ganda Shilling per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M ampala, Maize . . . .
Lira, Maize . . . . abale, Maize . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr Masindi, Maize . . . .
Sour e(s): Regional Agri ultural rade ntelligen e Networ
Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya
enyan Shilling per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Eldoret, Maize . . .
Na uru, Maize . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Regional Agri ultural rade ntelligen e Networ
Wholesale prices of maize in the United Republic of Tanzania
anzanian Shilling per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M ar es Salaam, Maize . . . .
ringa, Maize . . . . Arusha, Maize . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Regional Agri ultural rade ntelligen e Networ
Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia
Somali Shilling per g Latest ri e er ent Change Mar M M Mogadishu, Maize (white) . . . . Mar a, Maize (white) . . . .
Baidoa, Sorghum (red) . . . . Mar Jun Sep e Mar Jun Sep e Mar Mogadishu, Sorghum (red) . . . .
Sour e(s): Food Se urity Analysis nit
For more information visit the FPMA website here
10 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 EAST ASIA
Domestic prices of rice generally stable in April with exception of some main exporters where they decreased; those of wheat followed mixed trends Prices of rice were generally stable in April in most countries of the remained well above their year-earlier levels after continuous increases subregion, mostly reflecting good domestic availabilities. The main throughout 2020. exceptions to this trend were the key exporters, Viet Nam and Thailand, where prices decreased under pressure from the arrival As for wheat and wheat flour, prices followed mixed trends. In of freshly harvested supplies into the markets and subdued export China (mainland), they continued to increase at a slow pace in April, demand. Domestic prices of rice showed some signs of softening also ahead of the 2021 main season harvest and supported by steady demand in India, although only slightly, with the downward pressure from for food consumption and from the feed industry. Similarly, in Pakistan, the record 2020/21 secondary “Rabi” harvest, being mostly offset by ahead of the arrival of the above-average 2021 harvest into the markets, government procurement. Prices were stable in China (mainland) prices of wheat flour generally increased and were above their year‑earlier and Cambodia, amid adequate market availabilities. Similarly, prices levels. In India, wheat grain quotations remained generally stable changed little in Sri Lanka and the Philippines, reflecting bumper despite the ongoing record 2021 output, reflecting large government harvests, just completed or about to be completed. In Bangladesh, procurements at a higher price year on year. In the importer Sri Lanka, prices in Dhaka market were stable for the second consecutive month, wheat flour prices were generally stable and close to their year-earlier ahead of the 2021 main “Boro” harvest, estimated at a bumper level levels reflecting adequate imports, while they declined seasonally in and reflecting higher imports compared to last year in response to Bangladesh with the arrival of an above-average 2021 harvest, coupled government measures aimed to improve supplies. However, prices with record imports in previous months.
Wholesale prices of rice in Thailand
Baht per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Bang o , Ri e ( bro en) . . . . Bang o , Ri e ( bro en) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): epartment of nternal rade, Ministry of Commer e
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Sri Lanka
Sri Lan a Rupee per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M
Colombo, Ri e (white) . . . .
Colombo, Wheat (flour) . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): epartment of Census and Statisti s
For more information visit the FPMA website here
11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 EAST ASIA cont’d
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Bangladesh
a a per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M ha a, Ri e ( oarse BR Guti . . . . Sharna) ha a, Ri e (Medium) . . . .
ha a, Wheat (flour) . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): epartment of Agri ulture Mar eting ( AM), Bangladesh
Wholesale prices of wheat in China (mainland)
uan Renminbi per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M hengzhou, Wheat . . . . Linyi, Wheat . . . . National A erage, Wheat . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr Si iazhuang, Wheat . . . .
Sour e(s): CnAgri China Agri ulture Consultant
Retail prices of wheat flour in Pakistan
a istan Rupee per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M ara hi, Wheat (flour) . . . . Lahore, Wheat (flour) . . . . eshawar, Wheat (flour) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr Multan, Wheat (flour) . . . .
Sour e(s): a istan Bureau of Statisti s
Wholesale prices of wheat in India
ndian Rupee per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Mumbai . . . .
New elhi . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Ministry of Consumer Affairs
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12 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 CIS - ASIA AND EUROPE
Export prices of wheat declined in April due to weak demand, while domestic prices followed mixed trends but were mostly higher than a year earlier In the exporting countries of the subregion, export prices of milling Kyrgyzstan and most markets of Tajikistan in April. In Kyrgyzstan and wheat declined in April, mainly due to weak import demand. Prices fell Tajikistan, prices remained around the generally high levels reached after particularly in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where favourable rising between March and May 2020 in response to a spike in consumer production prospects for the 2021 winter wheat crop in the Black Sea demand triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also supported by region also exerted downward pressure on prices in the first half of the the depreciation of the local currencies. Prices continued to strengthen month. Despite some increases in the second half of the month, reflecting in Azerbaijan in March and in Georgia in April, in line with seasonal concerns over the production prospects in the United States of America, trends and supported by the introduction of taxes and a quota on wheat Canada and Europe amid unfavourable weather conditions, export exports in the Russian Federation, the main wheat supplier to the two quotations in these countries were down by over 7 percent month on countries. Prices were above their year-earlier levels, reflecting higher month, although still above their levels a year earlier. In Kazakhstan, Russian export quotations. export prices declined moderately in April, to levels slightly below those a year earlier. In the domestic markets, wholesale prices of milling With regard to potatoes, another staple food in the subregion, prices wheat remained overall stable in April in the Russian Federation, seasonally increased in most countries to levels above those a year while they declined in Ukraine, and remained above their year-earlier earlier. In the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, levels, particularly in Ukraine due to the harvest of a smaller output in prices increased in April to above year-earlier levels, and also in 2020. In Kazakhstan, domestic retail prices held steady or strengthened Belarus in March. In Tajikistan, prices strengthened in April but seasonally and were mostly above their values in April a year earlier. remained lower than a year earlier, and also in Azerbaijan in March. By contrast, in Georgia, prices of potatoes declined to levels In the importing countries of the subregion, prices of wheat flour remained below those in April 2020, following the harvest of a year on year stable and around their year-earlier levels in Belarus in March and in larger output.
Export prices of milling wheat in CIS countries
S ollar per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, . . . . offer, f.o.b., deep sea ports) raine, Wheat (milling, offer, f.o.b.) . . . .
aza hstan, Wheat (milling, d.a.p. . . . . Saryagash station)
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): A nform Agen y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan
Som per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Bish e , Wheat (flour, first grade) . . . . National A erage, Wheat (flour, first . . . . grade)
Bat en, Wheat (flour, first grade) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jalal Abad, Wheat (flour, first grade) . . . .
Sour e(s): National Statisti al Committee of the yrgyz Republi
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11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 13 CIS - ASIA AND EUROPE cont’d
Retail prices of wheat flour in Georgia
Lari per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M . . National A erage, Wheat (flour) . . . . . . . . . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): National Statisti s ffi e of Georgia
Retail prices of potatoes in the Russian Federation
Russian Ruble per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M National A erage, otatoes . . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Federal State Statisti s Ser i e
Retail prices of potatoes in Kyrgyzstan
Som per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Bish e , otatoes . . . . National A erage, otatoes . . . .
Naryn, otatoes . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jalal Abad, otatoes . . . .
Sour e(s): National Statisti al Committee of the yrgyz Republi
Retail prices of potatoes in Georgia
Lari per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M . . National A erage, otatoes . . . . . . . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): National Statisti s ffi e of Georgia
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14 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Prices of maize on the rise in line with seasonal trends but lower year on year In most countries of the subregion, land preparation or planting operations imports in the first quarter of 2021, combined with lower prices of its of the 2021 main season maize crop was ongoing following the start of major supplier, Nicaragua, continued to exert downward pressures. seasonal rains in April. Prices generally increased in line with seasonal By contrast, in Honduras, prices increased somewhat although they trends in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, but were more than were about 25 percent below their high levels a year earlier. Regarding 15 percent lower year on year, reflecting the good 2020 harvests. Prices black beans, prices strengthened in Guatemala, reflecting reduced also increased seasonally in Guatemala for the third consecutive month market supplies in line with the seasonal trends, exacerbated by higher and were marginally higher year on year. Similarly, prices increased in transportation costs, and were about 7 percent higher than a year earlier. most markets in Mexico with planting of the 2021 main season maize By contrast, prices of black beans decreased in Mexico, with increased crop ongoing and were overall above their year-earlier values on account market availabilities from the ongoing 2021 minor season harvest of elevated production costs due to a weakening of the local currency, expected to be slightly lower year on year. which lost about 8 percent of its value over the last 12 months. In the Caribbean, retail prices of black and red beans strengthened in With regard to beans, prices of red beans were considerably lower than the Dominican Republic, where the 2021 minor season planting was in April last year, when prices reached atypically high levels following the ongoing under dry weather conditions in April. Prices were higher than those upsurge in retail demand amid the COVID‑19 pandemic. However, prices a year earlier due to the reduced 2020 harvest. Prices of rice weakened with were above their levels two and three years ago, particularly in Honduras the start of the main season harvest, forecast at an above‑average level and Nicaragua, where the November hurricanes affected the 2020 second reflecting large plantings. InHaiti , prices of maize meal and black beans season harvest. In Nicaragua, the major producer and exporter of red were stable or increased seasonally in March, with the ongoing first season beans, prices continued to weaken in April 2021, although to a lesser planting. Prices of rice, mostly imported, increased by 6 percent month on extent than in the last two months, as the recently complete “Apante” month, following the weakening of the local currency. The ongoing civil season harvest improved market availabilities. Similarly, in El Salvador, unrest and insecurity have reportedly disrupted market activities, especially prices declined for the second consecutive month as year-on-year larger in urban areas, with negative effects on access to food.
Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America
S per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Guatemala, Guatemala City, Maize . . . . (white)
El Sal ador, San Sal ador, Maize (white) . . . .
onduras, egu igalpa, Maize (white) . . . .
Ni aragua, Managua (oriental), Maize . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr (white) Sour e(s): Ministerio de Agri ultura, Ganader a y Alimenta i n ire i n General de E onom a Agrope uaria, MAG S M A
Wholesale prices of beans in Central America
S per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M
onduras, egu igalpa, Beans (red) . . . .
Guatemala, Guatemala City, Beans . . . . (bla )
El Sal ador, San Sal ador, Beans (red) . . . .
Ni aragua, Managua (oriental), Beans . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr (red) Sour e(s): S M A Ministerio de Agri ultura, Ganader a y Alimenta i n ire i n General de E onom a Agrope uaria, MAG
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11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 15 SOUTH AMERICA
Prices of wheat and maize were higher year on year reflecting trends in the international market Prices of wheat generally increased in April and were above their be well above average due to the near record planted area, prices were year‑earlier levels. In Argentina, the major wheat producer of the more than double their values a year earlier in nominal terms, mainly subregion, prices increased due to strong demand from the domestic reflecting trends in the international market and sustained demand. milling industry and were about 40 percent higher than in April last year The high international prices contributed to the increase in domestic reflecting the year-on-year lower domestic output in 2020. Similarly, prices prices of maize in net importing countries, Colombia and Peru. By increased in Brazil reflecting seasonally low availabilities, coupled with contrast, in Uruguay, prices declined in April with the ongoing harvest the elevated prices of wheat in Argentina, the country’s main supplier. but remained more than 20 percent higher than a year earlier. The high Prices are expected to remain at high levels until the start of the 2021 price level reflects concerns over the impact of dry conditions in the last harvest in August. In Chile and Peru, prices continued to increase in April, quarter of 2020 on yields of the early-planted crops. In Chile, prices mainly reflecting higher import costs due to the increase in international also weakened seasonally but were about 25 percent higher year on prices of the grain. By contrast, prices weakened in Uruguay but were year reflecting the reduced output of the ongoing harvest as well as about 15 percent higher year on year reflecting sustained increases the high prices of imported maize. In Ecuador, prices of yellow maize during the last six months supported by large exports. In other importing generally decreased with the start of the 2021 main season harvest and countries, Colombia and Ecuador, prices held steady and were generally were near their levels in April 2020. around their year-earlier levels. Regarding rice, in Brazil, where the 2021 harvest is nearing completion, Prices of yellow maize were also overall higher year on year across the prices declined in April as lower demand from the milling industry subergion. In Brazil, prices continued to increase in April underpinned more than offset the slow sales by farmers but were well above their by concerns over the impact of dry conditions on the yields of the year‑earlier levels. In Uruguay, prices also weakened seasonally with main crop. The upward trends in the international market provided the commercialization of the 2021 crop, officially estimated at a slightly additional pressure on prices, which were well above their year-earlier above-average level reflecting excellent yields. Similarly, prices generally levels. In Argentina, after the short-lived stability, prices increased in weakened in Ecuador, Colombia and Peru, in line with seasonal trends April despite the ongoing 2021 harvest, which is progressing at a slower and were lower year on year reflecting ample carryover stocks from the pace due to wet conditions. While the 2021 production is expected to good 2020 harvests.
Wholesale prices of cereals in Argentina
Argentine eso per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Buenos Aires, Wheat . . . . Rosario, Maize (yellow) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Bolsa de Cereales
Wholesale prices of cereals in Brazil
Brazilian Real per g Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Rio Grande do Sul, Ri e (milled, fine . . . . long grain, type ) Mato Grosso, Maize (yellow) . . . .
aran , Wheat . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Companhia Na ional de Abaste imento (Conab)
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16 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 11 May 2021 SOUTH AMERICA cont’d
Wholesale prices of cereals in Chile
Chilean eso per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M National A erage, Wheat . . . .
National A erage, Maize (yellow) . . .
Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Cotrisa
Wholesale prices of cereals in Peru
Nue o Sol per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M Lima, Ri e (milled, superior) . . . . Lima, Maize (yellow) . . . . Lima, Wheat (flour) . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): Ministerio de Agri ultura y Riego
Wholesale prices of cereals in Uruguay
eso ruguayo per tonne Latest ri e er ent Change Apr M M National A erage, Ri e . . . . National A erage, Maize . . . .
National A erage, Wheat . . . . Apr Jul t Jan Apr Jul t Jan Apr
Sour e(s): nstituto Na ional de Estad sti a, i isi n Estad sti as E on mi as, epartamento de En uestas de A ti idad E on mi a, Se i n En uestas Estru turales de A ti idad E on mi a
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11 May 2021 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin 17 This bulletin was prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team of the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) in the Markets and Trade Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security.
This report is based on information available up to early May 2021, collected from various sources.
All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/home.
For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices. Enquiries may be directed to: GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team Markets and Trade - Economic and Social Development [email protected]
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Rome, Italy
The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) has set up a mailing list to disseminate its reports. To subscribe, submit the Registration Form on the following link: http://newsletters.fao.org/k/Fao/ trade_and_markets_english_giews_world.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISSN 2707-1952 [Print] ISSN 2707-1960 [Online] © FAO, 2021
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GIEWS FPMA Bulletin | 11 May 2021 CB4720EN/1/05.21