Humanitarian dimension in Russian foreign policy towards its neighbors: the mass media

dr. Nerijus Maliukevičius University 16 March 2010, Washington D.C. Head of Pushkin Institute in Estonia AdAndre iKi Krasnog lazov “[][…] Language is a very important geopolitical factor, therefore we cannot ignore the continuous shrinking of the Russian-speaking space, which accelerates the cultural assimilation of Russian minorities and the dissolution of their organizations [… ]” Russian informational influence

• Russia exercises geopolitics of information in post soviet region – this assumes dominance in information sphere, control of media channels and use of techniques to influence public opinion. Russia and Baltic States

• Sticks vs. carrots? – “Positive agenda for Baltic-Russian relations”, Council for Foreign and Defence Policy (1997) – “...Russia doesn ’ t need to be loved by its neighbours...”, Modest Kolerov (2005) – Vyacheslav Nikonov and “Russian World” (2007) The strategy?

Plan for ideological pppgropaganda for Finland for 1987-89: – “First Channel” should be transmitted through cable. – Estonian Radio and TV should produce programmes in Finish and supply it free of charge to Finish media; – Joint company should be established to disseminate video p r oducti on ; – Work through NGO’s should be more active; – Work with yygouth through: • Pop music; • Cinema.

Competitive advantage

• Sizeable Russian ethnic minorities which are exploited by Russia: – sootechestveniki as dual loyalty issue. • Russian language use; • Russia’s media channels (TV, radio, and the press) can reach significant portions of Baltic societies. How often do you watch the following TV channels in search of news about ? (Lithuanians) 100% 2,2% 2,0% 3,0% 0,8% 1,0% 19%1,9% 25%2,5% 28%2,8% 10,3% 3% 4,7% 90% 15,3% 15,4% 6,1% 17,5% 80% 7,4%

70% 63,5% 23,5% Never

Once per month 60% or less Once per week 50% Several times per week Every day 40% 79,1% 78,9% 72,9% 6,9% 30% 52,6% 6% 71%7,1%

20% 12,4%

10%

10,2% 0%

LTV LNK TV3 BTV PBK How often do you watch the following TV channels in search of news about Lithuania? (Russians)

100%

90% 20,6% 20,6% 26,5% 25,0% 33,8% 80% 0,0% 0,0% 8,8% 0,0% 11,8% 1,5% 2,9% 70% Never 10,3% 2,9% 17,6% Once per month or 19,1% 60% less 19,1% 13,2% 8,8% Once per week 50% Several times per 88%8,8% week Every day 40%

30% 55,9% 9% 51,5% 51,5% 48,5% 41,2% 20%

10%

0% LTV LNK TV3 BTV PBK How often do you watch the following TV channels in search of news about Lithuania? (Polish) 100%

95%9,5% 11,9% 15,5% 90% 14,3% 1,2% 26,2% 3,6% 4,8% 4,8% 80% 3,6% 7,1%

8,3% 3,6% 20,2% 2,4% 70% Never 7,1% 25,0% Once per month 21,4% 4% 26,2% 2% 60% or less 16,7% Once per week

50% Several times per week

Every day 40%

65,5% 30% 54,8% 51,2% 47,6% 47,6% 20%

10%

0% LTV LNK TV3 BTV PBK Television channel audiences among Russian- langgguage viewers in Estonia in 2008

Daily Daily reach share PBK 59.3% 33.7%

RTR Planeta 38.9% 8.5%

NTV Mir 37.9% 8.2%

3+ 31.0% 8.1%

Estonian TV 10.5% 1.7% Estonian Russian-Language population’s confidence in the me dia in 2008 Did Estonia join voluntarily with Soviet Union in 1940 or was it occup ie d?

Non‐Estonians

56 60 50 43 40 32 30 ()(%) 30 20 10 0 2002 2005

voluntarily occupied Issues in the Baltic media environment

• Isolated Russian media environments in Latvia and Estonia (not so much in Lithuania); • Problem of free-riding: – the case o f “B alti c Me dia Alliance ”; – The Baltics – just a test ground before entering European market. Victor Yushchenko

• „The biggest threat to national security of Ukraine is information expansion of foreign states. This enables them to wage informational- psychological actions that seek to misinform and influence the pp[]ublic […]“ / at National Security and Defence Council, 2008 03 21 Inter 19,04 Ukraina 9,7 STB 9,9 1+1 8,19 ICTV 7,64 NChlNew Chanel 7367,36 Russian Mass Media ORT international 4,84 NTN 2,96 in Ukraine TET 1,92 K1 2,28 5th channel 1,34 NTV mir 1,29 Kino 0,7 Tonis 0870,87 UT-1 1,49 Ru Music 0,62 Tbi 0,85 Megasport 0,65 M1 0,78 Issues in Ukrainian media environment

• The topics: – Ukraine and NATO; – Status of Russian language in Ukraine; – Portraying Ukrainian center-right parties as ultra-nationalists or even fascists; – Pro-Russian slogans during the elections. • Problems in Crimea and Eastern regions In Moldova from which TV channel do you get information? IiMld’diitIssues in Moldova’s media environment • The paradox of “virtual neighbor” of Moldova – Russia instead of Ukraine; • The paradox of public opinion about political leaders – Putin and Medvedev instead of Moldova’ s political elite; • The problem of Transnistrian information space.

Questions