DOCSLIB.ORG

WORKING PAPER Volume 2010 Number 349

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
WORKING PAPER Volume 2010 Number 349 WORKING PAPER Volume 2010 Number 349 Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion: What if Three-quarters of the World’s Poor Live in Middle-income Countries? Andy Sumner November 2010 About IDS The Institute of Development Studies is one of the world's leading charities for research, teaching and communications on international development. Founded in 1966, the Institute enjoys an international reputation based on the quality of its work and the rigour with which it applies academic skills to real world challenges. Its purpose is to understand and explain the world, and to try to change it – to influence as well as to inform. IDS hosts five dynamic research programmes, five popular postgraduate courses, and a family of world-class web-based knowledge services. These three spheres are integrated in a unique combination – as a development knowledge hub, IDS is connected into and is a convenor of networks throughout the world. The Institute is home to approximately 80 researchers, 50 knowledge services staff, 50 support staff and about 150 students at any one time. But the IDS community extends far beyond, encompassing an extensive network of partners, former staff and students across the development community worldwide. For further information on IDS publications and for a free catalogue, contact: IDS Communication Unit Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex Brighton BN1 9RE, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1273 915637 Fax: +44 (0) 1273 621202 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.ids.ac.uk/ids/bookshop IDS is a charitable company, limited by guarantee and registered in England (No. 877338). IDS WORKING PAPER 349 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion: What if Three-quarters of the World’s Poor Live in Middle-income Countries? Andy Sumner November 2010 Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex Brighton BN1 9RE UK 01 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion: What if Three-quarters of the World’s Poor Live in Middle-income Countries? Andy Sumner IDS Working Paper 349 First published by the Institute of Development Studies in November 2010 © Institute of Development Studies 2010 ISSN: 2040-0209 ISBN: 978 1 85864 953 6 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library. All rights reserved. Reproduction, copy, transmission, or translation of any part of this publication may be made only under the following conditions: • with the prior permission of the publisher; or • with a licence from the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd., 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE, UK, or from another national licensing agency; or • under the terms set out below. This publication is copyright, but may be reproduced by any method without fee for teaching or non-profit purposes, but not for resale. Formal permission is required for all such uses, but normally will be granted immediately. For copying in any other circumstances, or for re-use in other publications, or for translation or adaptation, prior written permission must be obtained from the publisher and a fee may be payable. Available from: Communication Unit Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex Brighton BN1 9RE, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1273 915637 Fax: +44 (0) 1273 621202 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.ids.ac.uk/ids/bookshop Typeset by Warwick Printing, Leamington Spa, UK. Printed by Nexus, Brighton, UK. IDS is a charitable company limited by guarantee and registered in England (No. 877338). 02 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion: What if Three-quarters of the World’s Poor Live in Middle-income Countries? Andy Sumner Summary This paper argues that the global poverty problem has changed because most of the world’s poor no longer live in low income countries (LICs). Previously, poverty was viewed as an LIC issue predominantly; nowadays such simplistic assumptions/ classifications are misleading because some large countries that graduated into the MIC category still have large numbers of poor people. In 1990, we estimate 93 per cent of the world’s poor lived in LICs; contrastingly in 2007–8 three quarters of the world’s poor approximately 1.3bn lived in middle-income countries (MICs) and about a quarter of the world’s poor, approximately 370mn people live in the remaining 39 low-income countries – largely in sub-Saharan Africa. This startling change over two decades implies a new ‘bottom billion’ who do not live in fragile and conflict-affected states, but in stable, middle-income countries. Such global patterns are evident across monetary, nutritional and multi-dimensional poverty measures. This paper argues the general pattern is robust enough to warrant further investigation and discussion. Keywords: poverty; inequality; MDGs. Andy Sumner is a cross-disciplinary Economist. He is a Fellow in the VPR team at IDS. His research relates to poverty and wellbeing, with particular reference to poverty concepts and indicators, child poverty and MDG/post-MDG debates. He is a council member of the Development Studies Association (DSA) and the UK representative to the European Association of Development Institutes (EADI) Executive Committee. [email protected], http://twitter.com/andypsumner 03 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 04 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 Contents Summary, keywords, author note 3 Executive summary 7 Acknowledgements 8 Acronyms 8 1Introduction 9 2Existing estimates of global poverty 9 3 Country classifications12 3.1 LICs and MICs 13 3.2 FCAs and non-FCAs 16 4 The global distribution of the worldʼs poor19 5 Conclusions and potential policy implications25 5.1 Global poverty estimates 25 5.2 A future research agenda 26 5.2.1 Revisiting and rethinking the country classifications and definitions 26 5.2.2The future of poverty reduction 27 5.3 The future of aid 29 Annexe 1 Country classifications 31 Annexe 2 Poverty estimates, 2007–8 35 Annexe 3 The post-2000 MICs40 References 41 05 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 Figures Figure 2.1 Where do the >$1.25/day poor live? 1990 10 Figure 2.2 Where do the >$1.25/day poor live? 2005 10 Figure 2.3 Where do the multi-dimensional poor live?11 Figure 2.4 Where do the chronic poor live?12 Figure 4.1 The global distribution of the worldʼs poor by country type, 1988–90 versus 2007–8 22 Figure 4.2 Global distribution of worldʼs poor by MPI, 2000–8 23 Figure A1 Cumulative poor, 1988–1990 vs 2007–8 39 Tables Table 2.1 The history of the US$1.25 International Poverty Line 9 Table 3.1 World Bank classifications thresholds 13 Table 3.2 Number of countries in each World Bank Category 14 Table 3.3 Countries graduating from LIC to MIC based n 2000–2008/9 data 15 Table 3.4 MIC countries that are IDA allocation threshold eligible 16 Table 3.5 Estimates of the percentage of the worldʼs poor in LIC, MIC and IDA allocation groups 16 Table 3.6 Estimates of the percentage of the worldʼs poor in FCAs by different definitions 18 Table 3.7 FCAs with more than 10 million poor people 18 Table 4.1 Summary estimates – global distribution of the worldʼ spoor by country type, 2007/8 20 Table 4.2 Estimates of the change in global distribution of worldʼs $1.25/ day poor 1988 versus 2007–8 20 Table 4.3 Global distribution of worldʼs poor by various measures, 2007–8 22 Table 4.4 Estimates of the change in global distribution of the worldʼs poor by millions of children not in primary school, 1998 versus 2007–8 23 Table 4.5 Estimates of the change in global distribution of the worldʼs poor by millions of children malnourished, 1988–90 versus 2007–8 24 Table 4.6 Estimates of the change in global distribution of the worldʼs poor by Multi-dimensional Poverty Index, 2000–8 25 Table 5.1 Data on reserves, ODA and structural indicators in the 27 new MICs versus other groups 28 Table 5.2 Selected large MICs and poor people, net ODA, aid dependency and forex reserves 29 Table A1 Key differences between FCAS lists 33 Table A2 Comparison of FCAS lists 34 Table A3 Poverty estimates by monetary, educational, nutritional and multi-dimensional poverty, 2007–8 35 Table A4 The 27 new MICs: key macroeconomic indicators 40 06 IDS WORKING PAPER 349 Executive summary If development is about poverty reduction, where the poor live is a crucial question. This paper seeks to add to the existing analysis of global poverty estimates by region by estimating the global distribution of the worldʼs poor by low-income country (LIC) and middle-income country (MIC) classification and by fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS). It is recognised that the endeavour of this paper is an inherently imprecise exercise but it is argued that the general pattern generated is robust enough to warrant further investigation and discussion. In the past poverty has been viewed as an LIC issue predominantly, nowadays such simplistic assumptions/classifications can be misleading because a number of the large countries that have graduated into the MIC category still have large number of poor people. The analysis presented can be summed up in three points as follows. First, thereʼs a new ʻbottom billionʼ living in the MICs: three-quarters of the worldʼs poor – or almost one billion poor people – now live in MICs. Indeed, about two-thirds of the worldʼs poor live in stable MICs. This isnʼt just about India and China as the percentage of global poverty accounted for by the MICs minus China and India has risen considerably from 7 per cent to 22 per cent.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • EADI Policy Paper Series GLOBAL POVERTY REDUCTION: the LAST
    EADI Policy Paper Series GLOBAL POVERTY REDUCTION: THE LAST 20 YEARS AND THE NEXT 20 YEARS Andy Sumner1 December 2012 1 Co-Director, King’s International Development Institute, King’s College London. Special thanks for research assistance to Ana-Maria Baban and Joan Okitoi. Executive Summary Progress in poverty reduction under the MDGs . At a global level, indicators for income poverty, gender and water in terms of reduction are ‘on track’ whereas nutrition, primary completion and child mortality are considered ‘off-track’ with maternal mortality being very ‘off-track’. The incidence of income poverty at $1.25 (MDG 1a) has fallen from 43 percent in 1990 to 22 percent in 2008 and is projected to fall to 16 percent in 2015 (according to Chen and Ravallion, 2012; World Bank, 2012:3). However, if China is removed, the total number of people under $1.25 has barely changed since 1990 while the number of people under the $2 poverty line has slightly increased. Changes in the nature of poverty and inequality . Over time global poverty is increasingly becoming a matter of domestic inequality because the majority of the world’s poor by income and multi-dimensional poverty measures now live in countries categorized by the World Bank as middle-income countries. It is important that the discussion of poverty in MICs does not distract from the reality that LICs typically have higher rates of poverty incidence. That said poverty rates in MICs remain surprisingly high given average income and income growth. This new ‘geography of poverty’ (the world’s poor do not live in the world’s poorest countries) raises questions about the usefulness of country classifications and about the types of economic growth that leads some countries to reduce the number of people in extreme poverty and other countries not to.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Poverty: Deprivation, Distribution and Development Since the Cold War by Andy Sumner
    Book Review: Global Poverty: Deprivation, Distribution and Development since the Cold War by Andy Sumner blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2017/03/06/book-review-global-poverty-deprivation-distribution-and- development-since-the-cold-war-by-andy-sumner/ 2017-3-6 In Global Poverty: Deprivation, Distribution and Development since the Cold War, Andy Sumner examines the persistence of poverty worldwide despite substantial economic growth, focusing particularly on its occurrence within Middle Income Countries (MICs). While the level of economic analysis may be less accessible to casual readers, this book offers a wealth of data for those considering how to ensure economic policymaking leads to more inclusive development, writes Hansley A. Juliano. Global Poverty: Deprivation, Distribution and Development since the Cold War. Andy Sumner. Oxford University Press. 2016. Find this book: According to the most recent Poverty Overview on the World Bank’s official website, ‘despite the progress made in reducing poverty, the number of people living in extreme poverty globally remains unacceptably high. And given global growth forecasts poverty reduction may not be fast enough to reach the target of ending extreme poverty by 2030.’ It has been argued both by news items and academic analyses that crippling global inequality and the failure of the global neoliberal economic platform have contributed to the resurgence of populist groups and right- wing political parties since the tailend of the 2008 global financial crisis. Golden Dawn in Greece, Front National in France, the triumph of the ‘Leave’ campaign in the United Kingdom as well as the gung-ho presidencies of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and Donald J.
    [Show full text]
  • CHILD POVERTY, EVIDENCE and POLICY Mainstreaming Children in International Development
    child_poverty_aw_pb_v1:Policy Press Cover 02/02/2011 14:25 Page 1 C H “This book is a significant and timely contribution to an improved I understanding of the neglected but all-too-important subject of child poverty L D and what to do about it. It is a 'must read' for researchers and policy makers interested in child poverty and evidence-based advocacy and public policy.” P O Dr Assefa Bequele, Director, African Child Policy Forum V E R “Jones and Sumner provide a sophisticated analysis of the multi-dimensional T interplay between evidence and policy on child poverty. The result is a Y , compelling account of why child poverty in developing countries needs to be E tackled by increasing children's visibility, voice and vision in both knowledge V I generation and policy processes. Academics and policy audiences alike will D find it invaluable.” E N Sandra Nutley, Professor of Public Management, University of Edinburgh C Business School E A This book concerns the opportunities and challenges involved in mainstreaming N knowledge generated by and about children into international development policy and D practice. It focuses on the ideas, networks and institutions that shape the development of P evidence about child poverty and wellbeing, and the use of such evidence in development O L policy debates. It also pays particular attention to the importance of power relations in I influencing the extent to which children's voices are heard and acted upon by international C Y development actors. The book weaves together theory, mixed methods approaches and case studies spanning a number of policy sectors and diverse developing country contexts • in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
    [Show full text]
  • Contexts, Politics and Processes for a Post-2015 Global Agreement on Development
    After 2015 Contexts, politics and processes for a post-2015 global agreement on development Claire Melamed 4 January 2012 Acknowledgements Thanks to Alex Evans, Andy Sumner and Bhumika Muchhala who contributed background papers, data and other information for this report. Thanks to Ruth Levine, Paul Rosenberg and other staff from the Hewlett Foundation for comments on an earlier draft, and to Chloe O’Gara for useful inputs throughout. Thanks to the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for funding this research. Overseas Development Institute Disclaimer: The views presented in this paper 111 Westminster Bridge Road are those of the author(s) and do not London SE1 7JD, UK necessarily represent the views of ODI or our partners. Tel: +44 (0)20 7922 0300 Fax: +44 (0)20 7922 0399 www.odi.org.uk After 2015 - Contexts, politics and processes for a post-2015 global agreement on development Contents Executive summary 1 1 How did we get here? A brief history of the MDGs 2 1.1 Strengths and weaknesses of the MDG framework 5 2 What’s the problem? Poverty in 2015 10 2.1 Summary of Progress on key MDGs, 1990-2015 10 2.2 MDG 1: Behind the global figures on incomes 13 2.3 MDGs 2-7: Behind the global figures on health, nutrition, education and sanitation 14 2.4 Inequalities in MDG achievement 16 2.5 MDG 8: progress on a global partnership for development 17 2.6 Have the MDGs made a difference to poverty? Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.7 New poverty problems since the 1990s 19 2.8 What will poverty look like in 2015? 25 2.9 New thinking about poverty since
    [Show full text]
  • The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed Since 1990?
    The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990? Peter Edward and Andy Sumner Abstract The interplay of between- and within-country inequality, the relative contribution of each to overall global inequality, and the implications this has for who benefits from recent global growth (and by how much), has become a significant avenue for economic research. However, drawing conclusions from the commonly used aggregate inequality indices such as the Gini and Theil makes it difficult to take a nuanced view of how global growth interacts with changing national and international inequality. In light of this we propose and justify an alternative approach based on four consumption “layers” identified by reference to the global consumption distribution. We consider how each layer of global society has fared since the end of the Cold War. JEL Codes: D63, I32 Keywords: poverty, inequality, economic development. Working Paper 341 www.cgdev.org September 2013 The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990? Peter Edward Newcastle University Business School Andy Sumner King’s International Development Institute, King’s College London Visiting Fellow Center for Global Development We would like to thank the following for comments on earlier drafts: Nora Lustig, Stephanie Seguino, Borge Wietzke, Martin Evans, Simon Maxwell, Owen Barder and Richard Manning. Peter Edward and Andy Sumner . 2013."The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990." CGD Working Paper 341. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. http://www.cgdev.org/publication/geography-inequality-where-and-how-much-has- income-distribution-changed-1990 Center for Global Development The Center for Global Development is an independent, nonprofit policy 1800 Massachusetts Ave., NW research organization dedicated to reducing global poverty and inequality Washington, DC 20036 and to making globalization work for the poor.
    [Show full text]
  • Download Transcript (Pdf)
    TRANSCRIPT OF DEVELOPMENT DRUMS [EPISODE 25 – GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES] Host: Owen Barder. Guests: Alex Evans and Malini Mehra Listen to the podcast: http://developmentdrums.org/415 Owen Barder Thanks for downloading Development Drums number 25. In this quarter century edition we are going to be talking about important long-term issues in development. My first guest is Alex Evans from the Center on International Cooperation at New York University. Alex runs CIC’s work on climate change, resource scarcity and global public goods. And he’s also one of the driving forces behind the Global Dashboard website on international issues. He recently finished a project with Chatham House on rising food prices. And was before that Special Adviser to Hillary Benn, then the UK Secretary of State for International Development. Alex, I can’t believe it’s taken us so long to get you on Development Drums. It’s great to have you. Alex Evans Hi, Owen, thanks for having me. Owen Barder And I’m even more thrilled to be joined by Malini Mehra. Malini is the founder of the Centre for Social Markets which works on sustainability and corporate responsibility in India and the Diaspora. Malini has worked on sustainability, on development, gender and human rights issues for two decades. And I’m sure many of you would have come across her either in the World Economic Forum, Young Global Leaders, as an Asia Society ‘Asia 21 Young Leader’ or as a CNN ‘Principal Voice’. Malini, it’s really great to have you on Development Drums. Malini Mehra Hello, and nice to be on it.
    [Show full text]
  • King's Research Portal
    King’s Research Portal DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2016-0021 Document Version Peer reviewed version Link to publication record in King's Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): Hoy, C., & Sumner, A. (Accepted/In press). Global Poverty and Inequality: Is there new capacity for redistribution in developing countries? Journal of Globalization and Development, 7(1), 117-157. https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd- 2016-0021 Citing this paper Please note that where the full-text provided on King's Research Portal is the Author Accepted Manuscript or Post-Print version this may differ from the final Published version. If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version for pagination, volume/issue, and date of publication details. And where the final published version is provided on the Research Portal, if citing you are again advised to check the publisher's website for any subsequent corrections. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognize and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. •Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research. •You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain •You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the Research Portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Inequality and Global Poverty Since the Cold War How Robust Is the Optimistic Narrative?
    Global Inequality and Global Poverty Since the Cold War How robust is the optimistic narrative? Peter Edward / Newcastle University Business School* Andy Sumner / King’s College, London** Global Challenges • Working Paper Series No. 1 • October 2016 his paper considers how the growth in global consumption since the end of the Cold War, has impacted on the co-evolution of global Tinequality and poverty. It is often suggested that this era of growth has led to a dramatic reduction in global poverty and to the emergence of both a new global middle class and a more equal world. We argue that this dominant and optimistic narrative on globalisation since the Cold War is considerably more methodologically fragile than it at first seems. Further, we suggest that this has implications for the UN goal to end global poverty by 2030. The fall in inequality is almost exclusively attributable to the effect that the rise of China has had on between- country inequality. Changes in global inequality across the rest of the world are much more modest. Much heralded falls in global poverty have raised the consumption of the poorest, but the extent to which that is the case depends on where one draws the global poverty line as at the lower end of the global distribution a change of just 10c can remove 100 million people from global poverty headcounts. If one takes instead the average poverty line for all countries (a more genuinely global poverty line) of $5 per day poverty headcounts have hardly changed since the Cold War. Meanwhile, the numbers living at risk of sliding back into poverty (between $1.90 * Peter Edward is a lecturer in International Business and $10 a day) grew by 1.6bn, compared to a rise Management at the Newcastle University Business of 1.1bn in the numbers living above this level, and School.
    [Show full text]
  • Transcript of Development Drums [Episode 24 – the New Bottom Billion]
    TRANSCRIPT OF DEVELOPMENT DRUMS [EPISODE 24 – THE NEW BOTTOM BILLION] Host: Owen Barder. Guests: Andy Sumner and Claire Melamed Listen to the podcast: http://developmentdrums.org/407 Owen Barder Thanks for downloading Development Drums No. 24. My name is Owen Barder in Addis Ababa. And today’s episode is about the bottom billion poorest people in the world. We’ll be talking about new research about where they live and discuss what this might mean for aid and development policy. We‘ve got two great guests today. The first is Claire Melamed, the Head of the Growth and Equity Programme at the Overseas Development Institute in London. Claire, welcome to Development Drums. Claire Melamed Thank you. Nice to be here. Owen Barder And my second guest is Andy Sumner, an economist at the Institute of Development Studies, who works on issues of poverty and inequality. Andy, welcome to Development Drums. Andy Sumner Hello. Owen Barder Andy, you’ve been in the news lately for your new paper Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion. And I’ll put a link to the paper on the Development Drums website so that listeners can read it for themselves. But I wonder if you can start us off with a brief summary of what you found? Andy Sumner Sure. We were looking at poverty trends over the last 20 years. We wanted to know where did poor people live and has it changed over the last 20 years? We found three things. The first is that there’s now about a billion poor people living in middle-income countries, and about 72% of the world’s poor.
    [Show full text]
  • Aid, Growth and Poverty
    Aid, Growth and Poverty Jonathan Glennie • Andy Sumner Aid, Growth and Poverty Jonathan Glennie Andy Sumner Visiting Fellow Reader in International Development King’s College London King’s College London London , UK London , UK ISBN 978-1-137-57271-4 ISBN 978-1-137-57272-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-57272-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016940950 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identifi ed as the author(s) of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub- lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.
    [Show full text]
  • The Political Economy of Inclusion: Reform Challenges in Indonesia Under Jokowi
    ASEASUK Conference 2016 SOAS, University of London 16-18 September 2016 The Political Economy of Inclusion: Reform Challenges in Indonesia under Jokowi Convenors: Andy Sumner and Lukas Schlogl, King‟s College, London Achieving inclusivity for the whole population by sharing the benefits of modernization, is a key economic and political challenge in contemporary Indonesia. It requires sustaining a path of economic growth that reaches vulnerable and marginal groups while, at the same time, protecting and managing decentralization and ensuring democratic participation. This must happen in a context of widespread informality, a growing lower-middle class, budget constraints, a slowing economy and unequal regional capacity. This panel addresses key challenges related to inclusive growth and participatory governance in Indonesia. It delivers an update and assessment of the current administration‟s social policy agenda, considers the impacts of decentralization on welfare, examines questions of access to social policy provision and explores Indonesia‟s recent struggle with defending direct local elections. Panel Chair: Diding Sakri (King‟s College London) 1. Inclusive Growth under Jokowi Arief Yusuf (Universitas Padjadjaran) and Andy Sumner (King’s College London) 2. Not enough money to go around: Jokowi’s inevitable dilemma over budget allocation Kyunghoon Kim (King’s College London) 3. Decentralisation and distribution: A multi-dimensional taxonomy of Indonesian districts Dharendra Wardhana (King’s College London) 4. Who saved Indonesia’s Direct Local Elections? Social media engagement in the context of the ‘Pilkada bill’ Lukas Schlogl (King’s College London) Abstracts 1. Inclusive Growth under Jokowi Arief Yusuf (Universitas Padjadjaran) and Andy Sumner (King’s College London) In this paper we discuss the distributional pattern of economic growth under Jokowi.
    [Show full text]
  • Fragile Progress? Global Monetary Poverty, 1981-2030 Andy Sumner
    Fragile Progress? Global Monetary Poverty, 1981-2030 Andy Sumner and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez 1 Paper prepared for the United Nations Virtual Inter-Agency Expert Group Meeting on the Implementation of the Third United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty, 24-27 May 2021 This version: 21 May 2021 Abstract: This paper reviews trends and patterns of global monetary poverty since 1981. We do the following: (i) discuss the limitations of the oft used extreme poverty line to assess global monetary poverty; (ii) examine trends in the level and composition of global poverty since 1981; and (iii) review studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty. Our core arguments are that: (i) the extreme poverty line has some serious question marks over it; (ii) the narrative of dramatic poverty reduction since the 1980s is, as a result, fragile; and (iii) the on-going COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath means greater attention is needed on (i) and (ii). 1 King’s College London. Correspondence to [email protected] and [email protected] 1 1. INTRODUCTION The first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-1) is to end poverty ‘in all its forms everywhere’ by 2030 (see for details, UNDESA, 2020). Target 1.1 uses the poverty indicator as the international poverty line developed by the World Bank, referred to as the ‘extreme poverty’ line which has been revised from $1.25 a day in 2005 PPP to $1.90 in 2011 PPP (see Ravallion et al., 1991, 2009; Ferreira et al., 2016 for history, methodology, and revisions; and for critique see below as well as Reddy and Lahoti, 2015).
    [Show full text]