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Learning Objectives c hapter Introduction toFinancial pany’s performance. and describingacom- ing and useratiosinanalyz- cial statementnumbers tionships betweenfinan- analysis. of financial statement should beableto: After studyingthischapter,you 2 1 5 Understand therela- Explain thepurpose Statement Analysis and leveragecomponents. profitability, efficiency, be decomposedintoits how returnonequitycan DuPont frameworkand panies. years andbetweencom- financial statementsacross form comparisonof nancial statementstoper- 4 3 Understand the Use common-sizefi- analysis. tions offinancialstatement flow ratios. mation toevaluatecash 6 5
Understand thelimita- Use cashflowinfor- © 2003 Getty Images Getty 2003 © 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 203
chapter 5
In 1987, IBM was the most valuable company in the high schools throughout the country in their efforts to Setting the Stage world, worth an estimated $105.8 billion. By the end incorporate technology into the curriculum, and the of 1992, IBM had an estimated value of $28.8 billion. company has established scholarship programs to en- This decline in value can be traced to a strategic error courage minorities and women to pursue careers in com- made by IBM in the early 1980s. Prior to 1981, IBM was puter science and related technical fields. In addition, the major player in the computer market and was the Bill Gates and his wife Melinda have started a founda- primary provider of computers for government, univer- tion dedicated primarily to health and education. Thus sities, and businesses. At this time, believe it or not, far they have contributed several billion dollars to their virtually no computers were available at an affordable foundation. price for individuals. Then, in 1981, IBM introduced its personal computer (IBM PC), and it quickly established FYI: the standard by which other PCs would be measured. In fact, many people are of the opinion that However, IBM elected to leave the software develop- Microsoft has succeeded too well. Several of ment for PCs to other companies. Instead of develop- Microsoft’s competitors allege that Microsoft ing its own disk operating system (DOS), IBM elected is involved in monopolistic practices that to use a DOS developed by a small company located in stifle competition. Seattle—MICROSOFT.1 Microsoft was founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen.2 When they founded Microsoft, Gates and In terms of stock price, Microsoft’s per-share stock Allen envisioned that computers would eventually find price (adjusted for stock splits) has gone from $0.10 in their way into everyday life (contrary to IBM’s predic- 1986 to almost $26 in April of 2003 (see Exhibit 1). But tion in the 1950s when one IBM executive forecast the as the graph illustrates, Microsoft’s stock price is down total worldwide demand for computers to be about five). from its historic high of over $58 per share in 1999. An While IBM’s performance floundered in the mid- and analysis of Microsoft’s financial statements reveals some late-1980s, Microsoft demonstrated an amazing ability of the reasons for the declining stock price. That is the to become a major player in practically every aspect of topic of this chapter—an introduction to financial state- the computer software market—from operating systems ment analysis. With some basic analysis tools (called ra- to the Internet to networks to spreadsheets and word tios), we will be able to conduct some fundamental processors. analysis of a company’s financial statements. Our analy- With Microsoft’s many accomplishments comes the sis will provide us with insights as to a company’s per- question: “Just how successful is the company?” The formance and will help us identify areas of concern. Keep answer to that question depends on how you define in mind that this is merely an introduction to financial “success.” Measured in terms of number of employees, statement analysis. There are entire textbooks devoted Microsoft has grown from just 32 employees in 1981 to the analysis of financial statements. Our objective when IBM elected to use Microsoft’s DOS to 50,500 as here is to expose you to some of the basic tools to help of the June 30, 2002, fiscal year. In terms of social im- you start to understand what financial statements can pact, Microsoft and its employees donate millions of tell us about the operations of a business. To illustrate dollars each year to such charitable causes as Special the analysis techniques introduced in this chapter, we Olympics, Boys and Girls Clubs, and the United Negro will reference the financial statement of Microsoft in- College Fund. Microsoft also supports elementary and cluded in Appendix A.
1 The decision to have another company develop the software for its personal computer was not IBM’s only strate- gic error. At the same time, IBM decided to use another company’s microprocessors—the “brains” of the com- puter. As a result, another successful company was born—INTEL. IBM lost the opportunity to dominate the software market as well as the computer chip market. By September 2003, Microsoft, Intel, and IBM had mar- ket values exceeding $317 billion, $187 billion, and $158 billion, respectively. 2 Everybody knows Bill Gates, but few people know about Paul Allen. Allen was Microsoft’s head of research and new product development until 1983 when a serious illness caused him to leave the company. He now spends much of his time investing in technology companies and watching the Seattle Seahawks, a professional football team, and the Portland Trailblazers, a professional basketball team, both of which he owns. 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 204
204 Part 1 Financial Reporting and the Accounting Cycle
Exhibit 1: History of Microsoft’s Stock Price per Share
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
The Need for Financial Statement Analysis
1 Explain the purpose Consider the following questions related to financial statement information for MICROSOFT of financial statement in 2002: analysis. • Microsoft’s net income in 2002 was $7.829 billion. That seems like a lot, but does it rep- resent a large amount for a company the size of Microsoft? • Total assets for Microsoft at the end of 2002 were $67.646 billion. Given the volume of business that Microsoft does, is this amount of assets too much, too little, or just right? • By the end of 2002, Microsoft’s liabilities totaled $15.466 billion. Is this level of debt too much for Microsoft? The important point to recognize is that just having the financial statement numbers is not enough to answer the questions that financial statement users want answered. Without further analysis, the raw numbers themselves don’t tell much of a story. financial statement analy- Financial statement analysis involves the examination of both the relationships among sis The examination of both financial statement numbers and the trends in those numbers over time. One purpose of fi- the relationships among fi- nancial statement analysis is to use the past performance of a company to predict how it will nancial statement numbers and the trends in those num- do in the future. Another purpose is to evaluate the performance of a company with an eye bers over time. toward identifying problem areas. In sum, financial statement analysis is both diagnosis— identifying where a firm has problems—and prognosis—predicting how a firm will perform in the future. 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 205
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financial ratios Relationships Relationships between financial statement amounts are called financial ratios. Net in- between financial statement come divided by sales, for example, is a financial ratio called return on sales, which tells you amounts. how many pennies of profit a company makes on each dollar of sales. The return on sales for Microsoft is 27.6%, meaning that Microsoft makes 28 cents’ worth of profit for FYI: every dollar of product sold. There are hundreds of different financial ratios, each shedding light on a different aspect of the health of a company. Financial information is almost always com- Exhibit 2 illustrates how financial statement analysis fits into the decision pared to what was reported in the previous cycle of a company’s management. Notice that the preparation of the financial year. For example, when Microsoft publicly statements is just the starting point of the process. After the statements are announced on April 15, 2003, that its quar- prepared, they are analyzed using techniques akin to those to be introduced in terly revenues were $7.84 billion, the press this chapter. Analysis of the summary information in the financial statements release also stated that this amount repre- usually doesn’t provide detailed answers to management’s questions, but it does sented an 8% increase over the same period identify areas in which further data should be gathered. Decisions are then made in the prior year. and implemented, and the accounting system captures the results of these deci- sions so that a new set of financial statements can be prepared. The process then repeats itself. FYI: For external users of financial statements, such as investors and creditors, financial statement analysis plays the same role in the decision-making process. Financial statement analysis often points to Whereas management uses the analysis to help in making operating, investing, areas in which additional data must be gath- and financing decisions, investors and creditors analyze financial statements to ered, including details of significant transac- decide whether to invest in, or loan money to, a company. tions, market share information, competitors’ In analyzing a company’s financial statements, merely computing a list of plans, and customer demand forecasts. financial ratios is not enough. Most pieces of information are meaningful only when they can be compared with some benchmark. For example, knowing that Microsoft’s return on sales in 2002 was 27.6% tells you a little, but you can evaluate the ratio value much better if you know that Microsoft’s return on sales was 29.0% and 41.0% in 2001 and 2000, respectively. In short, the usefulness of financial ratios is greatly enhanced when they are compared with past values and with values for other firms in the same industry.
TO SUMMARIZE: Financial statement analysis lem areas. The informativeness of financial ratios is greatly is used to predict a company’s future profitability and cash enhanced when they are compared with past values and with flows from its past performance and to evaluate the perfor- values for other firms in the same industry. mance of a company with an eye toward identifying prob-
Exhibit 2: The Need for Financial Statement Analysis
Prepare Analyze Gather Make Implement Financial Financial Additional Decisions Decisions and statements statements information • Operating Observe • Investing Results • Financing 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 206
business environment
Market Efficiency: Can Finan- companies or about the economy in general is reflected almost cial Statement Analysis Help immediately in stock prices. One implication of market effi- You Win in the Stock Market? ciency is that because current stock prices reflect all available An efficient market is one in information, future movements in stock prices should be un- which information is reflected predictable. rapidly in prices. For example, It seems clear that capital markets in the United States if the real estate market in a are efficient in a general sense, but accumulated evidence sug- city is efficient, then news of an impending layoff at gests the existence of a number of puzzling “anomalies” in the a major employer in the city should result quickly in form of predictability in the pattern of stock returns. For ex- lower housing prices because of an anticipated de- ample, prices tend to continue to drift upward for weeks or crease in demand. The major stock exchanges in the months after favorable earnings news is released. In addition, United States often are considered to be efficient prices continue to climb for at least a year after a stock split markets in the sense that information about specific is announced.
Widely Used Financial Ratios
2 Understand the rela- Before diving into a comprehensive treatment of financial ratio analysis, we’ll first get our feet tionships between finan- wet with the most widely used ratios. Familiarity with financial ratios will allow you to hold cial statement numbers your own in most casual business conversations and will enable you to understand most ratios and use ratios in analyz- used in the popular business press. Data from Microsoft’s 2002 financial statements will be used ing and describing a com- to illustrate the ratio calculations. The data are displayed in Exhibit 3. pany’s performance. Debt Ratio Comparing the amount of liabilities with the amount of assets indicates the extent to which a company has borrowed money to leverage the owners’ investments and increase the size of the debt ratio A measure of company. One frequently used measure of leverage is the debt ratio, computed as total lia- leverage, computed by divid- bilities divided by total assets. An intuitive interpretation of the debt ratio is that it represents ing total liabilities by total the proportion of borrowed funds used to acquire the company’s assets. For Microsoft, the debt assets. ratio is computed as shown on the following page.
Exhibit 3: Selected Financial Data for Microsoft for 2002
Current assets ...... $ 48,576* Total assets ...... 67,646 Current liabilities ...... 12,744 Total liabilities ...... 15,466 Stockholders’ equity ...... 52,180 Sales ...... 28,365 Net income ...... 7,829 Market value of shares ...... 293,137
*All numbers are in millions of dollars. 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 207
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From an accounting standpoint, market efficiency relates able financial statements can be used to successfully forecast to the usefulness of so-called “fundamental analysis.” Funda- stock returns for the coming year. So contrary to what is ex- mental analysis is the practice of using financial data to cal- pected of an efficient stock market, it looks like you can use culate the underlying value of a firm and using this underlying publicly available accounting data to make money in the U.S. value to identify over- and underpriced stocks. The notion of stock market. fundamental analysis is in conflict with market efficiency, be- cause the analysis works only if current stock prices do not Sources: Jane A. Ou and Stephen H. Penman, “Fi- fully reflect all available accounting information. For this rea- nancial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Stock Returns,” Journal of Accounting and Econom- son, fundamental analysis frequently has been regarded with ics (November 1989): 295. skepticism by academics. However, some research has sug- Robert W. Holthausen and David F. Larcker, “The Pre- gested that accounting data may be useful in predicting fu- diction of Stock Returns Using Financial Statement ture stock returns. Ou and Penman and Holthausen and Larcker Information,” Journal of Accounting and Economics (June 1992): 373. demonstrate that financial ratios derived from publicly avail-
Total Liabilities $15,466 Debt Ratio: 22.9% Total Assets $67,646
In other words, Microsoft borrowed 22.9% of the money it needed to buy its assets. Caution Is 22.9% a good or bad debt ratio, or is it impossible to tell? If you are a The debt ratio is often confused with the banker thinking of lending money to Microsoft, you want Microsoft to have a debt-to-equity ratio and the asset-to-equity low debt ratio because a smaller amount of other liabilities increases your chances ratio. Each of these ratios is a measure of a of being repaid. If you are a Microsoft stockholder, you want a higher debt company’s leverage. However, each is ratio because you want the company to add borrowed funds to your investment computed slightly differently. Make sure dollars to expand the business. Thus, there is some happy middle ground where when discussing a leverage ratio, it is un- the debt ratio is not too high for creditors but not too low for investors. The derstood which one is being used. general rule of thumb across all industries is that debt ratios should be around 50%, but this benchmark varies widely from one industry to the next. By com- parison, APPLE COMPUTER’s 2002 debt ratio was 35.0%.
Current Ratio
liquidity A company’s ability An important concern about any company is its liquidity, or ability to pay its debts in the short to pay its debts in the short run. If a firm can’t meet its obligations in the short run, it may not survive to enjoy the long run. run. The most commonly used measure of liquidity is the current ratio, which is a compari- current ratio A measure of son of current assets (cash, receivables, and inventory) with current liabilities. Current ratio is the liquidity of a business; computed by dividing total current assets by total current liabilities. For Microsoft, the current equal to current assets di- ratio is computed as follows: vided by current liabilities. Current Assets $48,576 Current Ratio: 3.812 Current Liabilities $12,744
Historically, the rule of thumb has been that a current ratio below 2 suggests the possibil- ity of liquidity problems. However, advances in information technology have enabled compa- nies to be much more effective in minimizing the need to hold cash, inventories, and other 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 208
208 Part 1 Financial Reporting and the Accounting Cycle
Exhibit 4: Current Ratios for Selected U.S. Companies
2002 Coca-Cola 1.00 Delta Air Lines 0.60 Dow Chemical 1.32 McDonald's 0.71 Wal-Mart 0.93
current assets. As a result, current ratios for successful companies these days are frequently less than 1. Current ratios for selected U.S. companies are shown in Exhibit 4.
Return on Sales As mentioned earlier, Microsoft makes 27.6 cents of profit on each dollar of sales. This ratio return on sales A measure is called return on sales and, using Microsoft’s numbers, is computed as follows: of the amount of profit earned per dollar of sales, Net Income $7,829 Return on Sales: 27.6% computed by dividing net Sales $28,365 income by sales. As with all ratios, the return-on-sales value for Microsoft must be evaluated in light of the appropriate industry. For example, the 2001 return on sales for Microsoft was 29%. At the other end of the spectrum, return on sales in the supermarket industry is frequently between 1% and 2%. These values, because they come from outside Microsoft’s industry, do not really provide a useful benchmark against which Microsoft’s return on sales can be compared. A bet- ter comparison for Microsoft is the 2002 return-on-sales value for Apple Computer, which was 1.1%. So, it appears that return on sales for Microsoft was substantially above the industry av- erage in 2002; why this happened will be examined later in the chapter.
Asset Turnover Microsoft’s balance sheet reveals total assets of $67.646 billion. Are those assets being used ef- asset turnover A measure ficiently? A financial ratio that gives an overall measure of company efficiency is called asset of company efficiency, com- turnover and is computed as follows: puted by dividing sales by total assets. Sales $28,365 Asset Turnover: 0.42 Total Assets $67,646
Microsoft’s asset turnover ratio of 0.42 means that for each dollar of assets Microsoft is able to generate $0.42 in sales. The higher the asset turnover ratio, Caution the more efficient the company is at using its assets to generate sales. In evalu- ating Microsoft’s asset turnover, note that asset turnover for Apple Computer in The computed asset turnover ratio can be 2002 was 0.91, indicating that Microsoft was less efficient than its competitor misleading, as discussed in the concluding at using its assets to generate sales. section of this chapter, because not all eco- nomic assets are recorded as assets on the balance sheet. Thus, the denominator of the Return on Equity ratio can be understated, sometimes very significantly. What investors really want to know is not how many pennies of profit are earned on a dollar of sales or what the current ratio is—they want to know how much 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 209
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return on equity A measure profit they earn for each dollar they invest. This amount, called return on equity, is the overall of the amount of profit measure of the performance of a company. Return on equity for Microsoft is computed as follows: earned per dollar of invest- ment, computed by dividing Net Income $7,829 Return on Equity: 15.0% net income by equity. Stockholders’ Equity $52,180
Microsoft’s return on equity of 15% means that 15 cents of profit were earned for each dollar of stockholder investment in 2002. By comparison, Apple Computer’s return on equity in 2002 was 1.6%. Good companies typically have return on equity values between 15% and 25%. Return on equity is the fundamental measure of overall company performance and forms the basis of the DuPont framework discussed later on.
Price-Earnings Ratio If a company earned $100 this year, how much should I pay to buy that company? If I expect the company to make more in the future, I’d be willing to pay a higher price than if I expected the company to make less. Also, I’d probably be willing to pay a bit more for a stable company than for one that experiences wild swings in earnings. The relationship between the market price-earnings ratio A mea- value of a company and that company’s current earnings is measured by the price-earnings sure of growth potential, ratio, or PE ratio, and is computed by dividing the market value of the shares outstanding by earnings stability, and man- the company’s net income.3 Microsoft’s PE ratio at the end of 2002 was: agement capabilities; com- puted by dividing market Market Value of Shares $293,137 value of a company by net PE Ratio: 37.4 Net Income $7,829 income. In the United States, PE ratios typically range between 5 and 30. High PE ratios are associated with firms for which strong growth is predicted in the fu- ture. YAHOO, for example, has one of the highest PE ratios in the world, but it is not found on the list of companies with high net income. The reason Yahoo is valued so highly is that it is expected to continue to grow so rapidly in the future that its current income is small compared with what investors are expect- PE Ratios ing in the future. This expected future growth is reflected in Yahoo’s PE ratio of Net Work: 113. Sample PE ratios for several companies as of May 14, 2003, are included To see what each company’s latest PE ratio in Exhibit 5. is, go to http://finance.yahoo.com and enter A summary of the financial ratios discussed in this section is presented in the stock symbol for each company in Ex- hibit 5. A chart for each company will pro- Exhibit 6. vide interesting financial information about Note that the PE ratio is different from the other ratios in that it is not the the company’s stock price performance. ratio of two financial statement numbers. Instead, the PE ratio is a comparison of a financial statement number to a market value number. The large majority
Exhibit 5: Sample PE Ratios for Several U.S. Companies
Stock PE Company Name Symbol Ratio
Yahoo! Yhoo 112.9 Wal-Mart wmt 29.8 Berkshire Hathaway brka 22.2 Home Depot hd 19.2 Sears s 6.1
3 The PE ratio can be equivalently computed using per share amounts: PR ratio Market price per share/Earnings per share. 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 210
210 Part 1 Financial Reporting and the Accounting Cycle
Exhibit 6: Summary of Selected Financial Ratios
Total liabilities 1. Debt ratio Percentage of funds needed Total assets to purchase assets that were obtained through borrowing.
Current assets 2. Current ratio Measure of liquidity; number Current liabilities of times current assets could cover current liabilities.
Net income 3. Return on sales Number of pennies earned Sales during the year on each dollar of sales.
Sales 4. Asset turnover Number of dollars of sales Total assets during the year generated by each dollar of assets.
Net income 5. Return on equity (ROE) Number of pennies earned Stockholders’ equity during the year on each dollar invested.
Market value of shares 6. Price-earnings ratio (PE) Amount investors are willing to Net income pay for each dollar of earnings; indication of growth potential.
of financial ratios, however, are (1) a comparison of two amounts found in the same financial statement (such as return on sales, which compares two income statement amounts) or (2) a comparison of two amounts from different financial statements (such as asset turnover, which compares an income statement and a balance sheet amount). These two types of ratios are il- lustrated in Exhibit 7. In looking at Exhibit 7, you might justifiably conclude that the cash flow statement is com- pletely ignored when computing financial ratios. Unfortunately, that is often true. Relative to the other two primary financial statements, the statement of cash flows is relatively new (the balance sheet and the income statement have been a part of accounting since its invention— the statement of cash flows has only been required since 1988). As a result, ratios involving balance sheet and income statement accounts have been in existence for decades. Given the newness of the statement of cash flows, standardized ratios are still developing. The ENRON accounting scandal has highlighted the usefulness of ratios involving cash flow information (see Judgment 5-1 in the end-of-chapter material). To make sure you don’t fall victim to the oversight of ignoring cash flow ratios, we include a special section on cash flow ratios later in this chapter.
TO SUMMARIZE: Financial ratios result from return on equity, and price-earnings ratio. Each of these the relationship between two financial statement numbers. ratios provides information about a company’s past per- Some of the most common financial ratios are the debt formance. ratio, the current ratio, the return on sales, asset turnover, 66885_c05_202-253.qxd 11/13/03 7:39 PM Page 211
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Exhibit 7: Financial Ratios and the Relationships among the Financial Statements
ASSET TURNOVER:
Sales Statement of Total Assets Cash Flows
Operating Investing Financing
Balance Sheet Net Change in Cash Ending Beginning
Assets