Swelling Oceans: Planning for Sea Level Rise

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise

Westley Owers

Bachelor of Town Planning

Faculty of the Built Environment

University of New South Wales

November 2006

Abstract

Emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over the last hundreds of years have placed us in a precarious position, in that we have forced change upon one of the world’s most important systems: climate. This climate change will have devastating impacts around the world. Of all the impacts of human induced climate change, it is sea level rise that is regarded as the most certain. Sea level is expected to rise in a best case scenario of one metre by the year 2100. However, there is still uncertainty surrounding how the environment will react to greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore a sea level rise of up to six metres above current levels by the year 2100 cannot be ruled out. As sea level rises it will bring with it debilitating impacts such as inundation of coastal areas, increased coastal erosion and an increased flooding of inland areas in storm surge occurrences. The scope and magnitude of this environmental issue is such that these impacts will seriously alter human settlement and fragile ecosystems in nations throughout the world. The only way of reducing the impacts of this environmental issue is for government to prepare coastal policy and legislation to address this issue now. The extent at which the impacts of sea level rise are experienced at a local, state and national level within nations will be a direct result of the adaptive response that governments implement to address this environmental issue. Sea level rise needs to be addressed now so we can ensure the preservation of the coastline for future generations.

Table of contents

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Waves at our doorsteps 2

1.2 Problem Statement and Objectives 3

Research Statement 3

Research Objectives 4

1.3 Theoretical context 4

Scientific sea level rise 5

Coastal planning and policy 5

1.4 Limitations 6

1.5 Methodology 7

Discourse analysis 7

In-depth interviews 7

1.6 Summary of Chapters 8

Chapter 2: Unchartered waters 8

Chapter 3: Impacts of sea level rise 8

Chapter 4: Planning for sea level rise 9

Chapter 5: Broken bridges over troubled waters 9

Chapter 6: Recommendations, Conclusion 10

Chapter 2: Uncharted waters

2.1 Introduction 12

2.2 Definition of sea level and its measurement 12

2.3 Causes of natural sea level fluctuations 14

2.4 Sea level fluctuations throughout the earth’s history 16 ii

2.5 Unchartered waters: Current projections of future sea level rise 19

2.6 Conclusion 23

Chapter 3: Impacts of sea level rise

3.1 Introduction 25

3.2 General impacts of sea level rise 25

Inundation 25

Storm surge flooding 26

Erosion 27

3.3 Vulnerable ecosystems 27

Beaches 27

Wetlands 28

Coral reefs 30

3.4 Impacts of sea level rise on human settlement 31

General Impacts on human settlement 31

Vulnerable nations 32

The Netherlands 33

Bangladesh 35

Australia 36

3.5 Conclusion 38

Chapter 4: Planning for sea level rise

4.1 Introduction 40

4.2 Human responses to sea level rise 40

4.3 A question of scale 42

4.4 Intergovernmental and international coastal planning & management 42

4.5 National coastal planning within Australia 43

iii 4.6 Coastal planning and management in New South Wales 44

4.7 Conclusion 54

Chapter 5: Broken bridges over troubled waters

5.1 Introduction 56

5.2 Issues in the NSW system and policy 56

Existing knowledge 56

Responsibility 58

Guiding documents 60

Legislative enforcement 62

Funding 63

5.3 Conclusion 64

Chapter 6: Recommendations Conclusion

6.1 Introduction 66

6.2 Recommendations 66

Existing knowledge 67

Responsibility 67

Guiding documents 68

Legislative enforcement 70

Funding 70

6.2 Conclusion 71

Bibliography 74

iv Figures Figure 1: Tide gauge stations that have been operating continuously for more than 30 years. 14

Figure 2: Outline of Australia and the islands to the north about 18,000 years ago prior to the Later Quaternary 17 marine transgression.

Figure 3: Walsh’s estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth century (in cm) 18

Figure 4: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth 18 century.

Figure 5: Unmitigated and stabilisation scenarios for global mean rise in sea level including effects of climate 20 sensitivity.

Figure 6: The IPCC’s reasons for uncertainty. 21

Figure 7: Satellite images of the break-up of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002. 22

Figure 8: Inundation. a) normal scenario, b) sea level rises, wetland retreats converting dry land to wetland and 25 wetland to open water.

Figure 9: The contribution of storm surges exacerbating sea levels on the coast. 26

Figure 10: Beach erosion under a rising sea level: the Brunn Rule. 28

Figure 11: The accumulation of peat has protected sea level rise from inundating wetlands in the past. This process 29 will not be able to keep up with accelerated sea level rise in the future.

Figure 12: Socio-economic impacts of sea level rise. 31

Figure 13: The coastal floodplain, including different levels of sea water flooding in storm surge occurrences. 32

Figure 14: Netherlands sea level rise scenarios. 34

Figure 15: Land at risk in Bangladesh from a 1m sea level rise. 35

Figure 16: Australian sea level rise scenarios. 37

Figure 17: Sydney after 6m sea level rise (under the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet). 38

Figure 18: Wave energy dispersal a) without the presence of a hard sea defence, b) with the presence of a hard sea 41 defence (sea wall).

Figure 19: Objective and actions of the National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management in 44 relation to planning and management of climate change in Australia.

Figure 20: Acts, policies, strategies, manuals and guidelines relating to coastal planning and management in NSW 45 and their interrelationships.

Figure 21: Definition of the coastal zone in the Coastal Protection Act 1979. 47

Figure 22: Strategic Actions in Part B of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 aimed at addressing the impacts of climate 49 change.

Figure 23: Aims of SEPP 71. 50

Figure 24: Regional Strategies actions to manage and plan the coastal zone. 52

Figure 25: Climate change associated with the coastline considered the primary responsibility of local government. 53 v Appendices

Appendix A: Interviewees Curriculum Vitae

Appendix B: Interview questions

Appendix C: University of New South Wales FBE Ethics Approval

Abbreviations

ALGA Australian Local Government Association CP Act Coastal Protection Act 1979 CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisations DCP Development Control Plan EP & A Act Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 GCM Geographic Climate Modellings GMSL Global mean sea level ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management LEP Local Environmental Plan LMSL Local mean sea level Major Projects SEPP State Environmental Planning Policy (Major Projects) 2005 Minister NSW Minister of Planning NCAICZM National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management NSW New South Wales SASAP South Asian Seas Action Plan SCCG Sydney Coastal Council Group SEPP State Environmental Planning Policy SEPP 14 State Environmental Planning Policy No. 14 - Coastal Wetlands SEPP 71 State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71- Coastal Protection WAIS West Antarctic Ice Sheet

There have been a number of people who supported me throughout the preparation of this thesis including my family and Peri Muddle and to them I am eternally thankful.

Thank you to my interviewees Angus Gordon and Brett Whitworth whose insights helped shape this thesis.

Also a special thank you must also be extended to Kirk Osborne and Erik Jimenez.

vii

Introduction

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 1

1.1 Waves at our doorsteps

For hundreds of years humans have released greenhouse gases into the atmosphere without any concern for the effects that this would have on the future. We have now been forced into an age of enlightenment, understanding that our current actions are resulting in dramatic changes to our climate. This climate change is like no other that has been experienced before in the history of the earth; with the atmosphere expected to warm at an accelerated rate for a long time into the future. What was previously thought to be a natural process of warming has now been revealed as human induced climate change known as global warming.

The impacts of global warming are of a global scale and include changes such as increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters including drought, cyclones, tsunamis and bushfire and altering of the global currents effecting the world’s largest ecosystem-the ocean. The impacts have the potential to devastate farming land, cities, infrastructure and natural ecosystems prompting the displacement of thousands of people throughout the nations of the world.

Of all the impacts of human induced climate change “accelerated sea level rise is regarded as the most certain” (Douglas et al, 183:2001). Our past greenhouse emissions have ensured that sea level rise is inevitable and that it will rise for hundreds of years into the future. Even if we were to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions now this process would not be stopped immediately, due to the nature of the natural processes within the ocean. Initially, sea level will rise from glaciers and ice sheet melting as a response to an increased temperature in the atmosphere. Soon the consistent temperature increase in the atmosphere will be directly reflected through a heating of the oceans’ waters, forcing it to expand and dramatically increase sea level in the process.

At present best estimates indicate that there could be up to one metre sea level rise by the year 2100. However these estimates are uncertain in that it is not sure how the Antarctic will react to increases in the atmosphere. Therefore, the worst case scenario foreseen at the moment would result in a sea level rise of up to six metres above

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 2 current levels. This rising of the sea will bring with it impacts resulting in the direct inundation of some areas, increased coastal erosion, and coastal flooding penetrating further inland in storm occurrences. Not all nations will be directly affected by these impacts however sea level rise will indirectly impact on the global community devastating human settlement and natural ecosystems.

The only way that governments can protect their nations from the debilitating impacts of sea level rise will be through rigid policy and legislation. This legislation will need to include adaptive responses to sea level rise, as our actions have determined that this issue cannot be halted through mitigation measures in the near future. An adequate adaptive response to policy will ensure minimum disruption to human settlements and natural ecosystems as sea level rises in the near future.

This thesis addresses the environmental global issue of sea level rise illustrating the predicted rise in the near future and highlighting the associated impacts that could potential to be witnessed in nations throughout the world. This thesis takes a particular focus on the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) to show the policies and legislation that have been prepared and whether or not these will protect the coastal zone 1 from the impacts of a rising sea level. Finally, this thesis ends with key recommendations that are made to the NSW government to strengthen their policy in relation to the accelerated sea level rise that will be experienced in the near future.

1.2 Problem Statement and Objectives

Research Statement

This thesis identifies the omissions that exist between current coastal planning policy in NSW and what is required to protect human life, infrastructure and natural ecosystems from the impacts of an accelerated sea level rise resulting from human induced climate change.

1 This thesis uses the definition of the coastal zone included in the Coastal Protection Act 1979 and reproduced in Figure 21 below.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 3 Research Objectives

The research objectives of this thesis include: Gain an understanding of the history of natural sea level rise to contrast with the changes that will be experienced from accelerated sea level rise in the near future; Provide an accurate depiction of the expected rises in sea level as presented by informed scientists to further influence planning policy; Identify the following to inform policy-making to accurately address an accelerated sea level rise: o specific causes of sea level rise; o impacts of sea level rise; o areas that are vulnerable to sea level rise within both the natural and built environment; and o past and present human responses to sea level. Identify the interactions between current planning legislation, policy, plans and strategies relating to the NSW coastal zone; Identify current planning legislation, policy, plans and strategies that attempt to address the impacts of accelerated sea level rise; Identify key omissions in planning legislation, policy, plans and strategies aimed at protecting the NSW coastal zone in light of the impacts of sea level rise; and Provide key recommendations to inform the future creation of NSW coastal planning policy to address the impacts of rising sea level on the natural and built environments.

1.3 Theoretical context

The investigation of planning for sea level rise comprises of scientific theory based on modelling and research into past occurrences of sea level rise. This thesis also includes an investigation into planning policy, legislation and plans that exist as an adaptive response to current issues experienced by coastal areas. The ideal way to adequately plan and manage the impacts of a rising sea level is to have planning legislation, policy and plans informed by scientific theory. This is not always the case which will be discussed later in this thesis.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 4 These two important concepts that provide the subject of this thesis are discussed in further detail below.

Scientific sea level rise

The scientific community has been responsible for identifying that our global climate is dramatically warming, and ascertaining the impacts this will have on sea level rise. There have been slightly differing opinions within the scientific community regarding the level at which sea the level will rise in the future. Notwithstanding this, scientists have formed a consensus agreeing that there will be above ordinary rises to sea level by 2050 and that this will increase for centuries to come.

Regardless of the discrepancies between opinions on expected sea level rise scientists provide us with valuable information on the impacts this will bring to our coastline. These impacts have been generally based on past sea level rise (e.g. measured through tide gauges) and laboratory modelling.

Although scientific information for sea level rise cannot provide us with a complete picture of the rate at which sea level will increase, and therefore the intensity of the impacts, it should be taken seriously. There will always be an element of uncertainty in this science but this uncertainty will substantially reduce as technology advances and scientific knowledge increases into the future (as discussed in Chapter 2 of this thesis).

Coastal planning and policy

The second theoretical context that will be utilised to prepare this thesis involves two main areas: that of coastal researchers’ commentaries on planning responses to sea level rise, and the actual coastal planning legislation, policy and plans developed by planners.

There are a number of key researchers in studying the planning response to sea level rise including Walsh, McInnes and Church in Australia, and Titus, Bird, and Nicholls internationally. Each of these researchers has a clear understanding of the science behind relative sea level rise and the responses that are evident in planning for sea level rise. Specific planning responses to sea level rise range from minor management such as building sea walls to complex development principles for land use and built form. These are discussed later in the thesis.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 5

The thesis also draws on existing coastal legislation and policy that has been developed in Australia and internationally. The thesis will particularly focus on coastal legislation and policy that has been developed in NSW such as State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71-Coastal Protection , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and the NSW Coastline Management Manual .

The scope of NSW planning legislation and policy in addressing the impacts of a rising sea level varies as is discussed later in this thesis. It is this legislation and policies that will determine the intensity at which sea level rise impacts the NSW coastal zone.

1.4 Limitations

The context of this thesis is not only limited to identifying the impacts of a rising sea level brought about by climate change but also natural sea level rises expected without human intervention. This is suitable as the calculation of sea level rise brought about by global warming generally includes sea level rise that is brought about naturally, without human intervention. However, it should be noted that natural contributions will be almost negligible in comparison to human induced contributions.

This thesis takes a precautionary approach to the understanding of sea level rise brought about by climate change. Therefore this thesis recognises that there is still some scientific uncertainty surrounding the exact amount that sea level will rise but aims at providing the best approach to planning and management for this issue with the existing knowledge available.

The nature of the ocean through its processes is such that sea level rise brought about by climate change will continue into the future for hundreds of years to come. Even if all emissions where to cease to be released into the atmosphere sea level would still rise. This thesis therefore takes an adaptive, rather than a mitigating approach to this issue.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 6

1.5 Methodology

The methodology of this thesis involves both a detailed investigation of existing literature and legislation and more practical and active research through the undertaking of in depth interviews with informed professionals who have experience in current planning legislation and policy and the scope of impacts of a rising sea level.

Discourse analysis

Planning for accelerated sea level rise involves an in-depth analysis of a wide range of literature relating to such topics as climate change, sea level rise, impacts of sea level rise, and planning response including specific policy and general coastal legislation in NSW. To provide a just and informed understanding of the issue, literature relating to the above topics has been researched and analysed extensively .

In depth interviews

In depth face-to-face interviews have been undertaken to further supplement information from literature and provide specific answers to questions that arise regarding scientific knowledge and informing NSW planning legislation and policy.

The interviewees have been identified through scientific literature, planning policy, key seminars, media and professional contacts. Each has been selected because of their knowledge in expected levels of sea level rise and its impacts or their contribution to coastal planning policy or both. The interviewees include: Angus Gordon- Chief Executive Officer of Pittwater Council; and Brett Whitworth- Acting Director, Regional Coordination of Regional and Rural Planning at the Department of Planning.

A brief Curriculum Vitae of each interviewee is included at Appendix A . Interview questions have been created specifically for these interviews in relation to the topics investigated in this thesis (refer to Appendix B ). Interviewees have been sourced and given their consent to the interviews in accordance with the University of New South Wales FBE Ethics Board requirements (refer to Appendix C ).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 7

1.6 Summary of Chapters

This report comprises six chapters, each important in providing an understanding of planning for the impacts of an accelerated sea level rise. A brief summary of these chapters is provided below.

Chapter 2: Uncharted waters

Global sea level has over the history of our earth fluctuated naturally (with a slight lag) in accordance with temperature changes in the earth’s atmosphere. Thermal expansion, glaciations and other factors have been responsible for past global sea levels dramatically above and below that experienced today. Earth’s environment has previously been dominated by processes brought about by natural interactions between the planet’s spheres. We are now entering an era where natural factors of sea level fluctuation will be strongly influenced by human actions as a result of global warming. There is still some controversy as to whether our actions have already influenced sea level sea rises over the last century. However, the future is abundantly clear, in that our actions are instrumental in the expected dramatic and continual sea level rises in the not too distant future.

Chapter 3: Impacts of sea level rise

The predicted rises in sea level will be experienced through a number of impacts, including the inundation of coastal areas, increased likelihood of flooding in storm surge occurrences and substantial increases to the erosion of coastlines. These impacts will be enough to adversely affect many ecosystems including beaches, coastal wetlands and coral reefs. In some areas these ecosystems will be forced to reduce in size and in others they will be lost completely. These ecosystem losses will inturn impact on human settlement reducing natural defence against rising sea level in periods of storm surge. The degree at which the predicted sea level rise is expected to have on nations varies, with some noticeably more vulnerable to this environment issue than others. Even conservative sea level rise predictions will devastate some nations, resulting in the loss of land and displacement of many people.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 8 Chapter 4: Planning for sea level rise

Sea level rise is inevitable and therefore adaptive measures will be imperative to the future of planning and management of the coastal zone. Planning for sea level rise is underpinned by the decision of whether to surrender land to the sea or install hard structures to hold back the sea. It is the social and economic issues raised by these planning responses that form planning policy within nations throughout the world. This environmental issue has global status and therefore should be implemented in all levels of government around the world. Within Australia the management and planning of the coastal zone is guided by individual state government legislation, policies and strategies. In Australia it is the state governments that are responsible for the preparation of legislation, policies and strategies to address the impacts of sea level rise. It is therefore the strength of the state government’s policies and plans that will determine the extent at which sea level rise will impact on ecosystems and human settlement at a national, state and local level within the Australian context.

Chapter 5: Broken bridges over troubled waters

The Australia Government has devolved power to the state government to manage and plan for the impacts of sea level rise. It is state government legislation, policy and plans that should guide investigations, development assessment and also policy making to address the impacts of sea level rise at a local level. The current legislation and policy prepared by the NSW government is insufficient in providing suitable guidance for local government to plan and manage the impacts of a rising sea level. Issues and misconception surround NSW governments’ legislation and policies including existing knowledge, responsibility, guiding documents, legislative enforcement and the provision of funding for local government. The reliance of the federal and local government on the state government to accurately develop a suitable planning response to protect human settlement and ecosystems from the impacts of sea level rise means that these issues will have an impact on all levels of government and the country of Australia as a whole.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 9 Chapter 6: Recommendations, Conclusion

The impacts of sea level rise will soon threaten the coastal zone. It is the development of appropriate responses at a state level that will guide the planning and management of the coastal zone under this environmental issue. Only through rigid state policy that is enforced through law will planners within local government be able to determine areas vulnerable to sea level rise and ensure the protection of both human settlement and fragile ecosystems.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 10

Uncharted waters

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 11

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Definitions and measurements of sea level

Mean sea level can be measured at both a global and local scale. Local ‘mean sea level’ (LMSL) is defined as “the height of the sea with respect to a benchmark, averaged over a period of time, such as a month or a year, long enough that fluctuations caused by waves and tides are largely removed” (Wikipedia Website 2006). LMSL takes into account the tectonic movements of the earth’s crust, atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local ocean temperature changes that may result in different mean sea levels between localities.

The other and more commonly used measure of sea level at a global scale is known as global mean sea level (GMSL) and is influenced by ‘eustatic changes’. Eustatic change or eustasy is defined as “the world wide sea level regime and its fluctuations, caused by absolute changes in the quantity of sea water” (Warrick et al 1993:107). The key factors that influence GMSL are thermal expansion and glaciations which are discussed below in further detail.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 12 GMSL is commonly used by academics as a broad measurement of sea level rise to highlight the issue on a world-wide scale. However, LMSL provides a more accurate measurement of sea level at a local scale and therefore allows a greater understanding of specific impacts region and localities.

There are a number of ways that sea level can be measured. Measurement of sea level in the earths history has been based on scientific research into sediment core samples (in wetlands), ice sheets and geological surveys (Gehrels et al 2005). The natural environment has many indicators that can be used to ascertain historic sea levels. For example, contours on ice sheets can be read to determine the age of that ice (and therefore calculate sea level) the same way tree rings on a tree stump can be read to determine the age of a tree (Gore 2006).

Recent fluctuations of both LMSL and GMSL have been measured with the use of tidal gauges. Tidal gauges have been instrumental in determining sea level fluctuations in the recent past but this system is not without its flaws. In particular, the location of the tidal gauges results in an inaccurate depiction of sea level rise in oceans around the globe. This is due to the uneven distribution of the 229 tidal gauges in 21 locations around the world (refer to Figure 1), with only 6 located in the southern hemisphere (Bird 1993). As a result of this, tide gauges are generally more accurate at determining local fluctuations in sea level. Tidal gauges are now generally regarded as back-up indicators to determine sea level fluctuations as satellite imagery covers more and more of the globe and reveals greater depths of data.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 13

Figure 1: Tide gauge stations that have been operating continuously for more than 30 years with the number referring to the amount of tide gauges within a certain grid. Source: Bird 1993:31

Predictions of future sea level fluctuations are generally based on satellite imaging and provided through computer climate modelling, normally Geographic Climate Modellings (GMCs) (Walsh et al 2004). These GCMs contain many interactions and approximations, some of which are not totally understood. “Nevertheless they are the best available tools for the prediction of climate change and their skill at representing climate system continues to improve” (Walsh et al 2004:590).

2.3 Causes of natural sea level fluctuations

Sea level, throughout the earth’s history has fluctuated in accordance with temperature changes in the atmosphere. It is through natural process of climate change in the past that current mean sea levels have been determined. Natural sea level fluctuations have been predominately influenced by two main natural factors: glaciations and thermal expansion of the ocean. Both concepts are defined and discussed below.

Glaciations refer to the process of the accumulation of ice on land to form glaciers (Strahler and Strahler 1999). Glaciers are created by a build up of snow which, when on land, freezes into ice and accumulates. Glaciers at any scale are frozen water reservoirs storing water that would have otherwise run-off land and flown into rivers

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 14 and the ocean. The state of a glacier is determined by the surrounding temperature of the earth’s atmosphere. For example, if temperatures are high then glaciers will be melting, and if temperatures are low then glaciers will be accumulating. This is a simplistic example provides a general understanding of the intimate relationship between glaciers and the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere.

The accumulation and ablation of glaciers, as a result of temperature changes throughout the earth’s history has influenced global sea level fluctuations with sea level falling in periods of accumulation (i.e. with less water running off into the ocean) and rising in periods of ablation (i.e. through an increase of water being released into the ocean). In periods of low temperature glaciers have dominated the earth’s surface. These periods are known as Ice Ages.

Glaciation is an important process in influencing sea levels around the world however its influence is minor in comparison to another process; thermal expansion of the oceans. Walsh et al states that “thermal expansion is the most important component of global sea level rise” (2004:588). Thermal expansion refers to the heating of the ocean’s water as a result of increases of temperature in the atmosphere. When the water heats it expands, increasing the overall volume of the ocean and therefore raising global sea level. The massive size of the ocean and the volume of water contained within means that sea level fluctuations from thermal expansion will be experienced at a delay from temperature changes in the atmosphere. This delay is known as a ‘thermal lag’ and is said to be in the order of around 30 years 2 (Walsh et al 2004, Flannery 2005).

Both glaciation and thermal expansion have been important in determining sea fluctuations throughout the earth’s history. Each process and therefore the level of sea level resulting from it, is critically dependent on the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere. The intimate relationship between the earth’s atmosphere and the sea levels has been evident throughout time “with ocean levels always fluctuating with changes in global temperatures” (Titus 1990:1).

2 This timeframe (30 years) refers to the absorption of heat from the atmosphere into the ocean, not the entire warming of the ocean which takes about 1000 years or more. This period of 30 years is when serious impacts of sea level rise due to temperature changes will start to be experienced (Flannery 2005).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 15

In addition to glaciation (ablution and accumulation) and thermal expansion there are other more minor factors that have been responsible for fluctuations in sea level. These additional factors for sea level fluctuation include the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets (melting and accumulation of ground ice), surface and ground water storage, and global tectonic effects (Walsh et al 2004). The input of these factors is considered relatively minor in comparison to the process of thermal expansion and glaciation.

2.4 Sea level fluctuations throughout the earth’s history

Fluctuations in sea level are intimately linked to fluctuations in global temperature, with changes in temperature impacting on glaciers and the thermal expansion of the ocean. This relationship has been witnessed throughout the earth’s history.

An example of this relationship is shown in the period that proceeded the last Ice Age, approximately 120,000 years ago the global average temperature was slightly warmer than that of today. This resulted in a global sea level five to six metres higher than it is today (Houghton 2004). This is in contrast to 18,000 years ago where the world was in an Ice Age (hence temperatures where substantially colder than today) resulting in a sea level of approximately 120 metres lower than the current level.

Sea level fluctuations have been a key factor in the formation and separation of continents and islands over the earth’s history. This was illustrated clearly between 18,000 - 12,000 years ago when sea level rise was so significant that it separated Tasmania and Papua New Guinea from the Australian mainland as shown in Figure 2 (Bird 1993). This dramatic rise in sea level was a direct result of a periodical increase in temperature by 5 C.̊ This temperature rise is known as “the fastest rise recorded in recent earth history” (Flannery 2005).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 16

Figure 2: Outline of Australia and the islands to the north about 18,000 years ago prior to the Later Quaternary marine transgression. Source: Bird 1993:129

After the dramatic sea level rise commencing at the end of the last Ice Age (18,000 years ago), sea level rise has been relatively consistent. For the past 6,000 years sea level has consistently risen 5 to 10 metres to reach current global sea levels (Aubrey & Emery 1993). The average rate of sea level rise has been between 0.14–0.1cm/year. This period of consistent sea level rise has been a result of the earth’s atmospheric temperature remaining relatively stable in this period.

In the last century, the sea level has risen 10 to 25 centimetres (i.e. an average of 0.1- 0.25cm/year) (Titus 1990). An estimate of the contribution that each factor of sea level fluctuation (discussed above) has on current global sea level in the past century is shown in Figure 3 and 4. These figures reinforce the dominance of both thermal expansion and glaciers as key factors in the fluctuation of sea level.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 17 Component Low Medium High Thermal expansion 3 5 7 Glaciers/small ice caps 2 3 4 Surface water and ground water -11 -3.5 4 (terrestrial) storage (not climate change) Greenland ice sheet (20th 0 0.5 1 century) Antarctic ice sheet (20th -2 -1 0 century) Ice sheets-adjustments since 0 2.5 5 last Ice Age Other 0 0.3 0.5 Total -8 7 22 Observed 10 15 20 Figure 3: Walsh et al’s estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth century (in cm) Source: Walsh et al 2004:589

Figure 4: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth century (in cm). Source: IPCC 2001:200

In particular, these figures show that thermal expansion has been the highest contributor to sea level rise, with glaciers and ice caps also having significant contributions. Together, thermal expansion and glaciers and ice caps resulted in a positive increase in sea level of 4 centimetres by the year 1990. This is in contrast to the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet which is relatively minor, and the

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 18 contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet which has reduced sea level and somewhat offset rises from other sources as shown in both figures.

Scientific information is inconclusive at the moment to whether sea level rises over the last century have been as a result of natural or human induced climate change (i.e. brought about by global warming). For example, studies were undertaken by Woodworth, Gornitz, Solow and Douglas separately to determine whether sea level rise has been a result of natural or human induced influences. From these studies “no author found conclusive evidence of a global acceleration of sea level, especially compared to what is predicted to accompany future global warming” (Douglas 2001:61).

2.5 Uncharted waters: Current projections of future sea level rise

Regardless of the controversy surrounding the more recent rises in sea level, it is abundantly clear that future sea level rise will be a direct result of human actions. The future of sea level rise is therefore characterised by human influences which will accelerate natural processes such as the ablation of glaciers and the thermal expansion of the ocean. As a result, sea level will rise dramatically over the next few hundred years in comparison to historical rises that have been experienced over tens of thousands of years.

Projections of future rise to the GMSL are currently provided in ranges. This is a result of the uncertainty which arises from an incomplete understanding of both the effects of greenhouse gases on the environment and also the extent to which these greenhouse gas emissions will continue in the future. This is considered reasonable in that we are entering an era of ‘uncharted waters’ with no past models of sea level rise influenced by greenhouse gas emissions to this extent to benchmark against. Initiatives such as the Kyoto protocol which may or may not result in reductions to greenhouse gas emissions in the future are also unknown impacts (Oberthur and Ott 1999).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 19 It is this uncertainty that results in sea level projections being shown in high, middle and low scenarios based on future green house gas emissions and climate sensitivity. Nicholls and Lowe (2006) have developed a graph that provides an estimate of the three ranges of future sea level rise in accordance with climate sensitivity ( Figure 5). This figure illustrates substantial ranges in results. For example unmitigated emissions will result in a sea level rise of approximately 25cm in low climate sensitivity and in excess of 110cm in high climate sensitivity by the year 2100.

Figure 5: Unmitigated and stabilisation scenarios for global mean rise in sea level including effects of climate sensitivity. In each ‘triplet of lines’, unmitigated emissions is the highest; with the two other lines based on minor mitigation and extreme mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Source: Nichols and Lowe 2006:197

Another important element of Figure 5 is that we can see a distinct increase in sea level rise in all scenarios from the year 2050. This is important as it is seen as the turning point in sea level rise. At this time the thermal lag of the ocean will begin to catch up with temperature increases in the earth’s atmosphere; therefore the rate of sea level rise will accelerate through increased thermal expansion (Walsh et al 2004).

Notwithstanding the high variability between expected emissions and climate sensitivity, one estimate for rises in sea level has generally been adopted by scholars and scientists- that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is an international organisation established by the United Nations Environmental Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation in

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 20 1988 to “assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation” (IPCC Website 2006). The global nature of this organisation, its impartiality, and the depth of research undertaken is the reason that its predictions for sea level rise are regarded as the most accurate in the world.

The most current IPCC report released in 2001 estimates that sea level will rise in the order of 9-88cm by the year 2100 (IPCC 2001). However, this range like all future predictions includes a level of uncertainty as discussed above (refer to Figure 6). It is anticipated that this uncertainty will greatly reduce in the future as technology becomes increasingly advanced in predicting climate change scenarios and we get closer to the year of the estimates. However it is important to realise like all future predictions whether it be in science, technology, government and so on, uncertainty about the future can never be reduced to zero (i.e. what Wildavsky calls the principle of irreducible uncertainty’) (Barnett 2001:981).

“There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding of:

sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, which affect predictions of future concentrations, clouds, which strongly influence the magnitude of climate - change, oceans, which influence the timing and patterns of climate change, polar ice-sheets, which affect predictions of sea level rise.

These processes are already partially understood, and we are confident that the scientific uncertainties can be reduced by further research, However, the complexity of the system means that we cannot rule out surprises”. Figure 6: The IPCC’s reasons for uncertainty Source: Houghton 2004:217

Although the IPCC’s estimate of a maximum of around one metre sea level rise is regarded as the most precise and accurate projection for future sea level rise, it should be noted that it does not incorporate all aspects of potential sea level rise in the future (as indicated in Figure 6 ). For example, this estimate “does not embrace

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 21 the full range of changes in the major ice sheets, particularly the maritime West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) which contains enough water to raise global sea level by up to 6m” (Nicholls and Lowe 2006:197).

In addition to this, the figure does not include the likelihood of the melting of floating ice shelves which, although not directly adding to sea level rise, clears the way for glaciers to retreat directly into the ocean. The melting of these ice shelves is relatively uncertain and can happen rapidly as has already been shown in the 1600 square kilometres of the Larson A ice shelf which suddenly disintegrated in 39 days during 1994-95 and more recently the 3245 square kilometres of the Larson B ice shelf which disintegrated in 41 days in 2002 (refer to Figure 7) (Pittcock 2005).

Figure 7: Satellite images of the break-up of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 with the left image as appeared on 31 January 2002 and the right image as appeared on 5 March 2002. Source: Pittcock 2005:98

Within the estimates of sea level rise there is still a relative element of uncertainty. However the IPCC range provides a suitable level which should be used as a precautionary principle to influence planning and management of the coastal zone. Generally the IPCC measurement should be used as best case scenario to inform planning and management of the coastal zone with an absolute worst case scenario being evident in the collapse of the WAIS.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 22

2.6 Conclusion

Humans have placed themselves in a precarious position forcing natural factors to dramatically increase and raise sea level in the future. At this point our past actions are irreversible meaning that sea level rise is inevitable. The exact magnitude of this could range from 1 to 6 metres in the next 100 years based on our further emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the way in which the world’s climate system reacts. If this issue is ignored due to uncertainty, then there will be serious impacts resulting in the possible destruction of natural ecosystems, disruption of human settlement and loss of human life.

Chapter 3 of this thesis builds on our understanding of the expected sea level rise, identifying impacts that this could have on ecosystems and human settlement.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 23

Impacts of sea level rise

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 24

3.1 Introduction

3.2 General impacts of sea level rise

Inundation

Inundation is the most obvious impact of sea level rise and refers to the permanent submergence of low lying land on the coast (Warrick et al 1993). Inundation will result in the “conversion of dry land to wetland and the conversion of wetlands to open water” (Titus 1990:2). For example, consider a bay with a tide range of 1 metre and an area of dry land that is currently 75 centimetres above sea level, i.e. 25 cm above high water mark. If the sea rose 25 centimetres overnight the land would be flooded at high tide and therefore converted into wetland, while a 125 centimetres rise would convert it to open water (Titus 1990) (refer to Figure 8).

a) b)

Figure 8: Inundation. a) normal scenario, b) sea level rises, wetland retreats converting dry land to wetland and wetland to open water. Source: Author 2006

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 25

Figure 8 shows the response of wetlands to inundation which is to retreat inland. As sea level rises more land area will become inundated forcing wetlands to retreat inland, hence converting dry land into wetlands. This wetland retreat will impact on human activities and development. Figure 8 provides a simplistic example of how inundation reduces dry land and therefore impacts on human settlement.

Storm surge flooding

The term storm surge refers to “elevated sea levels resulting from extreme atmospheric winds and low pressure” (McInnes et al 2003:vi). Storm surges are encountered in storms and extreme storm events such as cyclones and typhoons. Storm surges result in the temporary flooding of coastal areas. Figure 9 shows how storm surges further exacerbate sea levels on the coast. Therefore, a rising sea level will further the risk of flooding of coastal areas in storm periods providing a “higher base upon which storm surges can build” which will increase the temporary flooding of coastal areas and erosion of the beach profile (Titus 1990:4).

Figure 9: The contribution of Storm surges exacerbating sea levels on the coast Source: Mc Innes et al 2003:2

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 26 Erosion

Erosion refers to the “physical removal of material by waves and currents from the beach profile” (Douglas et al 2001:89). An increase in sea level would permit waves, in normal conditions and especially in storm surges, to reach the upper part of beaches increasing the transportation of sand away from the beach and ultimately reducing the size of sand dunes (Titus et al 1991). This reduction of the beach profile would allow for waves to penetrate further into the coastal zone threatening both ecosystems and human settlement.

The impacts of erosion beneath a rising sea are generally calculated at a local scale. This is because individual beaches have differing features and morphologies that have an impact on the rate at which they will be susceptible to erosion. This has been noted further by Swift, suggesting that coastlines respond to sea level rise in a variety of ways depending on sand grain size, wave conditions and sediment supply (1976).

3.3 Vulnerable ecosystems

Beaches

The impacts of sea level rise will be most evident at the beach as this is the interface between the ocean and the land. The main impacts of a rising sea level on the beach 3 will be inundation, but more importantly, erosion.

The calculation of the loss of material from the beach profile, as a result of a rising sea level on coastal erosion is illustrated in most scientific literature through the use of the ‘Brunn Rule’, created by Peter Brunn in 1962 (Kont et al 2003). The Brunn Rule is based on a “balancing of sediment in the on and offshore direction in response to sea level rise” (Douglas et al 2001:190). Under the Brunn Rule the beach profile reaches a new equilibrium through shifts landward and upward resulting in both an erosion of the beach and nearshore area and the deposit of sediment on the lower part of the beach profile as shown in Figure 10 .

3 Beach refers to the thick, wedge-shaped accumulation of sand, gravel, or cobbles in the zone of breaking waves (Strahler and Strahler 1999).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 27 Figure 10 shows the Brunn Rule which states: “that a sea level rise will lead to erosion of the beach and removal of a volume of sand (v1) seaward to be deposited (v2) in such a way as to restore the initial traverse profile landward of D, the other boundary of nearshore sand deposits. The coastline will retreat (R) until stability is restored after the sea level rise comes to an end. The coastline thus recedes further than it would if submergence were not accompanied by erosion“(Bird 1993:57). This beach erosion is a result of waves crashing higher on the beach profile (in normal conditions and storm surges) and not caused purely through inundation of the beach by sea level rises .

Figure 10 : Beach erosion under a rising sea level: the Brunn Rule Source: Bird 1993:57

Notwithstanding the importance of the Brunn Rule it has been seen by some authors as outdated and too simplistic to accurately determine beach erosion under sea level increases. For example Cooper and Pilkey state that the “Brunn Rule is a ‘one model fits all’ approach, which is unsuitable for a highly complex sedimentary environment such as the nearshore zone [in which it is used] “(2004:161). The Brunn Rule should therefore be used as a more simplistic approach to calculating the retreat of beaches through erosion under rising sea levels, and can be used as a framework for computer modelling of erosion losses to the beach profile when sea level rises (Hennecke 2004).

Wetlands

Coastal wetlands include saltmarshes, mangroves and intertidal areas located between the highest tide of the year and mean sea level (Titus 1991). Wetlands provide habitats for an abundance of flora and fauna which are specifically adapted to the natural conditions, such as the salinity that this ecosystem provides. This ecosystem will be threatened under an accelerated sea level rise through temporary flooding by storm surges and permanent flooding or inundation.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 28

Wetlands are at serious risk from an accelerated sea level rise in the future as “their location is intimately linked to sea level” (Nichols et al 1999:75). This intimate link is through the collection of sediment which allows wetlands to produce peat, enabling them to stay just above sea level. Figure 11 illustrates this process over thousands of years. As shown in Figure 11 and highlighted by most authors, it is expected that wetlands’ ability to remain above sea level could not keep pace with a significant acceleration in sea level rise (Kearny & Stevenson 1991).

Figure 11 : The accumulation of peat has protected sea level rise from inundating wetlands in the past. This process will not be able to keep up with accelerated sea level rise in the future. Source: Douglas et al 2001:215

The expected rises in sea level and wetlands’ inability to remain above sea level will result in inundation of many wetland ecosystems. This inundation will result in the loss of delicate wetland ecosystems with plant life physically drowning and animal species (particularly fish) forced to retreat upstream or perish due to increased salinity levels. It is therefore anticipated that there will be a substantial loss of wetland ecosystems under projected future sea level rises.

Another problem for the survival of wetlands under a projected sea level rise is based on human disturbance. Wetlands will naturally retreat inland as sea level rises (as shown in Figure 11 , above). In some areas “direct losses of coastal wetland due to sea level rise can be offset by inland wetland migration (upland conversion to wetland)” (Nichols et al 1999:75). However, past and present development has reduced the

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 29 extent to which wetlands can migrate inland. This means that the inland migration of wetlands in many areas will not be possible, resulting in a loss of the wetlands ecosystem under rising sea levels.

The loss of wetlands will have wide reaching impacts on the environment. Nicholls et al state that loss in wetlands will impact on other sectors and functions including food production (loss of nursery area for fisheries), flood and storm protection (storm surges penetrating further inland), waste treatment and nutrient recycling, and as a habitat for wildlife (1999). With the current rate of wetland loss, at rate of 0.5 to 1.5 % per year due to human activities (such as shoreline protection, blocking of sediment sources, land reclamation, aquiculture development and oil, gas and water extraction) it is clear that these ecosystems are in danger (Houghton 2004). The future rises to sea level are expected to seriously increase this rate and therefore devastate the wetland ecosystems.

Coral reefs

Coral reefs are an important ecosystem in terms of their biodiversity and also their value to humans for tourism purposes. As stated by Flannery: “of all the ocean’s ecosystems, none is more diverse nor more replete with beauty of colour and form and none is more endangered by climate change” (2005:104). It is anticipated that projected accelerations in sea level rise will inundate coral reefs resulting in substantial losses around the globe.

Corals’ survival is dependent on varying levels of sunlight-depending on the species of coral. Therefore, a key survival adaptation of coral has been to grow upwards as sea level rises. This has been apparent throughout the earths history with sea level rises reflected through vertical coral growth. The survival of coral reefs depends on the rate at which sea level rises: with a slow rise stimulating the growth of coral and an accelerating sea level rise leading to the drowning and death of some corals; and hence the collapse of the entire reef ecosystem (Bird 1993).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 30

3.4 Impacts of sea level rise on human settlement

General Impacts on human settlement

The environmental impacts of a rising sea level on ecosystems will result in a range of socio-economic effects on humans which have been identified by McLean and Tsyban (2001) and shown in Figure 12 . The most serious and obvious of these impacts (shown in Figure 12 ) is the increased flood risk and potential loss of life. Pittcock states that even for the “more modest sea level rises expected by 2100 under the IPCC 2001 report scenarios (refer to Chapter 2 ), 50 to 100 million people may be subject to coastal flooding” (2005:128). This will have direct impacts on development in the coastal zone. The planning of coastal communities has generally been based on the likelihood of flooding, in that coastal zones that are less flood prone will contain more housing than those that are highly susceptible to consistent flooding.

increased loss of property

increased loss of coastal habitats

increased flood risk and potential loss of life damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure loss of renewable and subsistence resources loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions loss of non-monetary cultural resources and values impacts on agriculture and aquaculture and through decline in soil and water quality

Figure 12 : Socio-economic impacts of sea level rise Source: McLean and Tsyban 2001:345

Figure 13 provides a representation of the standard storm surge flooding model that is used in planning throughout the world (Nicholls 1999). We can see that there are zones based on the likelihood of an area to flood in relation to storm surges, i.e. once/per year to once/1000 years. This figure also shows a sea wall that has been constructed to protect against the one in 10 year flood occurrence. Responses to sea level rise such as this sea wall are discussed in further detail in Chapter 4 of this thesis.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 31

Sea level rises expected in the near future will dramatically raise this flood level increasing the likelihood of storm surge flooding for each zone. This will have varying impacts on nations depending on the location of housing and infrastructure and also the topography and morphology of the coastline. These individual impacts are discussed below in further detail.

Figure 13 : The coastal floodplain, including different levels of sea water flooding in storm surge occurrences. Source: Nicholls 1999:72.

Vulnerable nations

The impacts that sea level rise will have vary around the world, with some nations being at extreme risk as a result of their geographical features (e.g. Bangladesh, Thailand, Australia and the Netherlands). This will result in mass evacuations and substantial loss of human life in these countries.

The IPCC has developed a vulnerability assessment for nations regarding the impacts of climate change (2001). From this assessment, nations that are likely to be most vulnerable 4 under sea level rises can be identified. The vulnerability of a nation to sea level rise depends upon the geomorphology, environmental dynamics of a particular coastline, and the ability of the nation to adapt (Hebert and Taplin 2006). Vulnerable nations identified by the IPCC include: the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Islands in the Pacific (such as the Maldives and Tuvalu), Thailand, China and Australia. Although these nations have been identified as particularly vulnerable, the impacts of sea level

4 Here vulnerability refers to the topography and environmental features of a nation that make it susceptible to sea level rises. This vulnerability does not take into account existing or proposed defences that have been constructed in the nation. These defences will be discussed in Chapter 4 of this thesis.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 32 rise will also have a substantial impact on other nations. These impacts will be felt directly through flooding, erosion and cliff recession. The global nature of society also ensures that the affects of global sea level rise although not directly affecting a nation, may still effect other countries as a result of impacts felt in other vulnerable nations (e.g. through international trade).

A selection of these vulnerable nations and the impacts they might experience are discussed below. The impacts of sea level rise on vulnerable nations once again promotes the importance of sea level rise as an environmental issue of global scale.

The Netherlands The Netherlands is one of the most vulnerable nations to sea level rise with a coastline of over 450 kilometres long and the majority of the land area already below sea level (CIA Fact Book 2006). This location below sea level is a result of coastal subsidence which is a continuing characteristic of the Netherlands coastal areas (Bird 1993). The impacts of a rising sea level on the Netherlands will be through direct inundation of a substantial proportion of the nation (as shown in Figure 14 ) which will be further compounded by storm surge impacts. Figure 14 shows the potential devastating impacts on the Netherlands with around 20% (i.e. above 6700 sqm) of the total land mass (33,883 sqm) including the capital Amsterdam inundated under a 1m sea level rise.

In addition to this it is noted that should the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, prompting a six metre sea level rise (as discussed in Chapter 2 of this thesis), the Netherlands would be further inundated with even more dramatic loss of land containing both built and natural environments.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 33

current

1m sea level rise

6m sea level rise Figure 14 : Netherlands sea level rise scenarios. Source: Google Earth 2006

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 34

Bangladesh Bangladesh is regarded as the most vulnerable country in the world to sea level rise as a result of direct inundation of a high proportion of its 133,910sqm of land mass (Douglas et al 2001). Within this nation at least 16 million people live on the flood prone delta areas to the south of Bangladesh (as shown in Figure 15 ).

Figure 15 : Land at risk in Bangladesh from a 1m sea level rise. Source: Douglas et al 2001:201

A one metre rise in sea level will result in the inundation of the majority of the southern portion of Bangladesh as shown in Figure 15 . Douglas et al states that this could result in the inundation of 16% of the land currently used for rice production displacing 16 million people in the process (2001). In the likelihood of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting this displacement would increase as further areas are inundated.

There is however other more pressing issues for Bangladesh under sea level rise predictions, that of storm surge flooding and coastal erosion. The nation already experiences significant impacts from storm surges brought about by constant cyclones attacking the Bay of Bengal (refer to Figure 15 ). Ali states that “the country’s low and

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 35 flat terrain is easily flooded by amplified surge waters, thus converting the coastal land area into a vast sea” (1999: 112). Any rise in sea level is expected to provide a higher base on which storm surges can build upon resulting in an increase of the area flooded and therefore displacing people and posing a greater risk to life.

In addition to this Bangladesh is also currently highly susceptible to coastal erosion as a result of a constant barrage of waves on the coastline in storm surge conditions and heavy discharges into the sea from the nations’ river systems (Ali 1999). The amount of coastal erosion has been linked to sea level rise with an average recession of about 87 times that of sea level rise (i.e. recession of 0.87cm occurs per 1cm of sea level rise). The impact of a 1m sea level rise will therefore result in substantial recession of beaches in Bangladesh in the order of 87m.

Australia Australia is the world largest island with a total land mass of 7.6 million square kilometres (CIA Fact Book 2006). The Australian coastline stretches over 25,000 kilometres with varying coastal ecosystems such as sandy beaches, coral reefs and mangrove wetlands. Of the 20.2 million people who live in Australia 85% live in the coastal zone (i.e. within one kilometre from the ocean) (Walsh et al 2004).

The topography of Australia which is generally above sea level (except for parts of South Australia such as Lake Eyre) means that a sea level rise of one metre will directly inundate only a few areas along the coastline as shown in Figure 16 . The major impacts of a one metre sea level rise in Australia will be felt through coastal erosion and a rising of the mean high tide mark on which storm surges can build upon (McInnes et al 2003). Both these processes will further exacerbate existing problems of coastal development including housing and infrastructure fronting the foreshore areas. Areas of concern include many parts of Sydney and the Queensland city of Cairns (which is already flood prone and subject to annual cyclones) (Mc Innes et al 2003).

The level of inundation may seem minor in a one metre sea level rise scenario for Australia but should the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt there would be devastating impacts compounding erosion and storm surge issues with direct inundation of major

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 36 cities and populated coastlines. Figure 17 shows the impacts of a six metre sea level rise on the Sydney CBD. Here we can see a direct inundation of coastal areas and foreshore areas located along the Parramatta River. Particular suburbs and the Sydney International Airport would be permanently submerged.

Although only small areas of Australia will be directly inundated by an expected sea level rise of 1m storm surge impacts and resulting increased erosion ensure that this issue will need to be addressed in the near future. Like Bangladesh, Australia has an extremely high level of coastal erosion in relation to sea level rise and therefore is under serious threat from this environmental issue. The CSIRO highlights this, stating that for every one metre of sea level rise, the Australian coast will erode by around 50 to 100 metres (2003).

current

1m sea level rise Figure 16 : Australian sea level rise scenarios. Source: Google Earth 2006

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 37

Figure 17 : Sydney after 6m sea level rise (under the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet). Source: Flannery 2006:4

3.5 Conclusion

The impact of a rising sea level will soon be upon us, resulting in a reduction of and or complete loss of coastal ecosystems. The rise in sea level will both temporarily and permanently flood coastal areas destroying coastal development and, in the process, displacing hundreds of thousands of people around the world. No nation will be spared the effects of this environmental issue. Our only hope is to acknowledge the potential impacts and plan accordingly to protect both ecosystems and communities.

Chapter 4 of this thesis identifies and discusses current planning legislation and policy that have been created by the NSW government to protect the coastal zone. This chapter also makes specific reference to elements within planning policy developed to address the impacts of a rising sea level.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 38

Planning for sea level rise

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 39

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Human responses to sea level rise

Planning and management responses to sea level rise in the past have been underpinned by one “fundamental question; whether to retreat or hold back the sea” (Titus 1990:10) . These responses have varying advantages and disadvantages in terms of damage to ecosystems and socio-economic impacts on communities.

‘Retreat’ as a response to sea level rise relates to the surrendering of land to the sea as sea level rises. This response has traditionally been restricted to undeveloped coastal areas containing little infrastructure. However, as the impacts of a rising sea level become more severe, it is anticipated that this response will be employed in a number of regions around the world. In most cases retreat will be engineered to gradually surrender properties to the sea reducing the social impacts associated with the loss of property.

The other response to sea level rise is to protect coastal development through the erection of hard structures such as sea walls, dykes and groynes along the coastline. The advantage of protection is that it “does not require major institutional changes

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 40 regarding land use” (Walsh et al 2002:36). The issue of erecting sea walls is that it is beneficial to property as it provides protection from the sea however this is at the detriment of the environment. This is because hard sea defences deflect wave energy back out to sea and in the process displace this energy increasing erosion of the sea floor (refer to Figure 18 ). This alters natural coastal processes resulting in a steeper slope of the beach (shown in Figure 18 ) and eventually leading to an undermining of the sea wall prompting further repair and even replacement (Titus 1991).

a) b)

Figure 18 : Wave energy dispersal a) without the presence of a hard sea defence, b) with the presence of a hard sea defence (sea wall). The arrow in b) shows the refraction of the wave energy subsequent to impacting the sea wall. Source: Author 2006

The economic decision of whether to retreat or defend land is generally based on whether “the cost of the coastline exceeds the values of the structures that are threatened by erosion and submergence” (Bird 1993:125). However, in practice, this economic equation is not always used as a result of the deep attachment that communities have to their land. The decision making process of whether to retreat or protect will require an understanding of both the impacts of sea level rise and the community attachment to nearby land.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 41

4.3 A question of scale

The planning and management of the impacts of a rising sea level must be undertaken through a cooperative approach by all levels of government. The role of the federal and state government in planning for sea level rise is normally reserved strictly to that of a facilitator in support of local government. This is because local government is the only level that can accurately develop strategies “to deal with sea level rise because of the very heterogeneous nature of the coastline” (Walsh et al 2004:593). However this is not to say that federal and state government are not instrumental in planning and managing the impacts of sea level rise. Depending on the structure of the nations government it is either the state and or the federal government which provides the guidance for planning at a local level. Therefore the extent at which planning for sea level rise will be successful at a local level is underpinned by the extent at which it has been considered a state and or federal level.

The following sections of this Chapter identify the policy that has been developed by the key guiding level of government in Bangladesh (the federal government) and more importantly within Australia, the state (NSW the context of this thesis) in the support of local planning and management of the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone.

4.4 Intergovernmental and international coastal planning & management

Planning for sea level rise is still in quite early stages around the world with concerned nations either implementing and preparing plans that specifically relate to their nation or taking a coordinated approach and developing intergovernmental agreements or plans between a number of concerned nations.

An example of both of these levels of coastal planning and management is evident in Bangladesh. With the impacts of sea level rise expected to devastate some 16% of Bangladesh’s crop land and displace some 13 million people the national government has entered an intergovernmental agreement known as the South Asian Seas Action Plan ( SASAP ). The SASAP came into force in February of 1997 and includes, in addition to Bangladesh, Republic of India, Republic of Maldives, Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka (United Nations

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 42 Environmental Program Website 2006). The aims of this document are to establish a cooperative approach between nations to establish a system of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). It is anticipated that the cooperative nations will be able to prosper from other nations’ investigations and ensure that actions at a national level benefit the entire cooperative.

The framework provided in the SASAP for ICZM has allowed Bangladesh to develop specific coastal policy to addresses impacts that are relevant to the nation. The key policies that guide coastal planning and management in Bangladesh are the Coastal Zone Policy 2005 and the Draft Coastal Development Strategy . These policies contain specific planning and management initiatives including the decision to relocate communities or construct defences in response to rising sea levels in certain coastal zones. This policy provides direction for the development of more specific policies at a regional level and promotes studies into the specific impacts of sea level rise at a local level.

The SASAP has had a beneficial impact on its member countries with most nations either already prepared or currently preparing ICZMs. We can see that Bangladesh in particular has prepared a ICZM as discussed above which can be directly credited to the structure and framework pioneered by the SASAP . Both the Coastal Zone Policy 2005 and the Draft Coastal Development Strategy are in early stages and therefore their success in coastal management and planning will be determined in the future.

4.5 National coastal planning within Australia

Coastal planning in Australia at a national scale like Bangladesh is based on a framework that promotes a cooperative approach between states. The Australian Government’s Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council released the National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management ( NCAICZM ) in early 2006. The NCAICZM have been prepared to directly address the continued environmental decline of the Australia coastal zone identified in The State of the Environment Report 2001 (Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council 2006). The document makes specific reference to the importance of addressing the impacts of

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 43 climate change, in particular sea level rise. The NCAICZM provides a number of actions to gain a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the coastal zone as shown in Figure 19 .

Objective: Improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on the coastal zone Actions to implement the objective Identify international best practice and national research and response priorities for understanding potential climate change impacts in the coastal zone. Build a national ‘picture’ of coastal zone areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts to better understand risks and interactions with other stresses in the coastal zone. Undertake modelling, in line with state and territory priorities, at regional scale to inform coastal zone management, in response to climate change scenarios, on issues such as: Sea level rise and foreshore change, Estuary and wetland response (including salt marsh), Wave, cyclone, fire and flood intensity and frequency, Structural responses (coastal infrastructure), and Change to distribution and lifecycles of affected species and ecological communities.

Figure 19 : Objective and actions of the National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management in relation to planning and management of climate change in Australia. Source: National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management 2006:38

This Management Plan aims at providing a national approach to planning for the impacts of climate change on the coastal zone. The success of this policy therefore is based on the cooperation of state governments of Australia in providing accurate information to the federal government where it can be tallied and condensed into a national cooperative approach to planning for the impacts of climate change and in particular sea level rise.

4.6 Planning and management in NSW

Coastal planning and management within NSW is guided by a number of interrelated Acts, policies, strategies, manuals and guidelines (an outline of these policies and their interrelationships is shown in Figure 20 ). The most important documents in terms of guiding planning and management of the coastal zone are the Coastal Protection Act 1979 , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and State Environmental Planning Policy No 71- Coastal Protection ( SEPP 71 ). It is these policies and legislation which all other coastal management and planning documents in NSW are based. The legislation, policies and strategies aimed at protecting the coastal zone have been developed by a number of

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 44 agencies including the Department of Planning, the Department of Environment and Heritage and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group. This legislation, policies and strategies are the guiding force in the determination of the design of the coastal zone in NSW at all levels of government.

Environmental Planning Coastal Protection Act 1979 & Assessment Act 1979

Local Government Act 1993

SEPP 71- NSW Coastal Policy

Coastal Protection 1997

Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW SEPP 14- Coastal Wetlands

SEPP (Major NSW Coastline Projects) Management Manual

Sydney Regional NSW Coastal Coastline Management Hazard Strategy Policy Regional Strategies

Figure 20 : Acts, policies, strategies, manuals and guidelines relating to coastal planning and management in NSW and their interrelationships. Source: Author 2006

Coastal planning and management in Sydney is generally carried out in isolation from the rest of the state as a result of the high density of population and housing built within the coastal zone and differing natural hazards in this area.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 45 The primary legislation for Coastal Planning in NSW is both the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 ( EP & A Act ) and the Coastal Protection Act 1979 (CP Act ). The EP & A Act is responsible for guiding all development in NSW including the creation and implementation of environmental planning instruments development assessment. The EP & A Act was recently amended on the 16 July 2005 to include Part 3A which relates to the development of major infrastructure and other projects. This Part of the EP & A Act delineates the Minister as the consent authority in certain projects, which can include coastal development applications in certain areas. The definition of whether a project is to be included in Part 3A is determined by this Part and also through other State Environmental Planning Policies (SEPPs) such as the State Environmental Planning Policy (Major Projects) 2005 which is discussed in further detail below.

The CP Act operates in isolation from the EP & A Act . The CP Act has a more ecological function than that of the EP & A Act aiming at the protection and enhancement of “ecosystems, ecological process and biological diversity” in the coastal zone (NSW Parliament 1979:Clause 3). Clause 4 and 4A of the CP Act provides the definition of the coastal zone 5 (refer to Figure 21 ) and maps outlining the coastal zone. This definition is incorporated in coastal planning policies and strategies such as the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 , State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71- Coastal Protection and the Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy.

The CP Act provides direction to the supervision of the coastal zone (Clause 38) which is based on the likelihood of a development proposal to adversely impact on the ecology of the coastal zone. If the proposal is likely to adversely impact on the coastal zone the CP Act stipulates that it must be assessed in concurrence with the Minister. This clause aims at providing further safeguard to degradation of the coastal zone assuming that, in the relevant circumstance the State (Minister) will further scrutinise Councils’ assessment of development within the coastal zone.

5 The coastal zone has subsequently been extended through a planning circular on 18 November 2005(NSW Government 2005). The coastal zone has been extended to include another 13 local government areas in relation to the implementation of NSW Coastal Policy 1997 , SEPP 71 and the Coastal Design Guidelines.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 46 The coastal zone means: the area of land and the waters that lie between the western boundary of the coastal zone (as shown on the maps outlining the coastal zone) and the landward boundary of the coastal waters of the State, and the seabed (if any) and the subsoil beneath, and the airspace above, the areas referred to above. The coastal waters of the State extend, generally, to 3 nautical miles from the coastline of the State. the determination of the western boundary of the area to be included in the coastal zone is: o the boundary is to be generally one kilometre landward of the western boundary of the coastal waters of the State, o the boundary is to be generally one kilometre landward around any bay, estuary, coastal lake or lagoon, o the boundary is to follow the length of any coastal river inland generally at a distance of one kilometre from each bank of the river: • to one kilometre beyond the limit of any recognised mangroves on or associated with the river, or • if there are no such recognised mangroves—to one kilometre beyond the tidal limit of the river, • the boundary is to be shown to the nearest cadastral boundary or easily recognisable physical boundary (determined in consultation with relevant councils) Figure 21 : Definition of Coastal Zone in the Coastal Protection Act 1979 Source: Coastal Protection Act 1979: Clause 4 & 4A

Another one of the primary functions of the CP Act in relation to coastal planning in NSW is Clause 55B which prompts the need for local Councils, which have areas within the coastal zone, to prepare Management Plans if directed by the Minister. The Management Plans can be cooperative between Council areas (i.e. cover a number of Council areas) and are to be prepared in accordance with the NSW Coastline Management Manual as stipulated in Section 733 of the Local Government Act 1993 .

The EP & A Act and CP Act do not provide any specific objectives or guidelines in relation to climate change and the impacts of sea level rise. The Acts merely set out direction for the creation of planning policies plans and to aid decision making to plan and manage the coastal zone of NSW. State and Local Government are therefore responsible to prepare policies in accordance with these Acts.

The NSW Coastline Management Manual was prepared in 1990 by the Australian Government’s Department of Heritage to provide a framework for the implementation of plan making for local governments (in accordance with Clause 55B of the CP Act ).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 47 Included in this Manual is the NSW Coastline Hazard Policy that aims to “reduce the impact of coastal hazards on individual owners and occupiers, and to reduce private and public losses relating from natural coastal forces” (1990:2). This document urges the NSW State Government to ‘lead by example’ to allow for integration by local government. The Policy also identifies the responsibility of the state governments to provide funding to local government to implement the aims of this Policy.

The key policy for the planning and management of the coastal zone is the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 . The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 was prepared by the NSW Coastal Council to provide a “new direction for coastal zone management, planning and conservation in NSW” (1997:8). In particular the role of the policy is to provide a ‘framework’ for the co-ordinated management of the coastal zones’ unique physical, ecological, cultural and economic attributes. This framework is to be implemented by state government (through plans and policies), local government (through the Local Government Act 1993 ) and also community groups (such as Coastcare and Landcare). The Policy includes a number of initiatives to further guide coastal management such as the prohibition of canal estate developments, sand mining and development on the dune foreshore area.

The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 attempts to directly address the impacts of climate change in particular sea level rise with the implementation of the ‘precautionary principle’ (NSW Government 1997). The precautionary principle is based on a risk adverse approach to decision making. The policy states that “where there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty is not to be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental degradation” (NSW Government 1997:17). The Policy promotes the precautionary principle to be integrated into decision and plan making. Part B of the NSW Coastal Policy1997 , which outlines the implementation of the policy includes specific actions for further research into the potential threat of climate change on coastlines as shown in Figure 22 . Figure 22 also shows the responsible agency for each strategic aim which includes both government agencies and privately funded corporations.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 48 Objective: To recognise and consider the potential of climate change in the planning and management of coastal development Strategic Aim Responsibility Studies on the influence of climate change for Environmental Protection Agency coastal areas will continue to be undertaken in association with the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. Appropriate planning mechanisms will be Local Councils considered for incorporating sea level change Department of Lands, Water and scenarios set by the IPCC. Conservation (now department of Department of Natural Resources) Department of Urban Affairs and Planning (now Department of Planning) The sea level monitoring station installed at Port Port Kembla Kembla Harbour will be used to monitor changes Port Corporation in the sea level as a result of changes in climate as part of the national sea monitoring program. Figure 22 : Strategic Actions in Part B of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change. Source: NSW Government 1997:42

State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71- Coastal Protection (SEPP 71 ) was gazetted on the 1st November 2002 under the EP & A Act to provide a legislative framework in which the NSW Coastal Planning Policy 1997 could be implemented (refer to Figure 23 ). The aims of SEPP 71 , shown in Figure 23 are therefore generally in line with that of the NSW Coastal Planning Policy 1997 . The SEPP (in Clause 8) provides matters for consideration relating to access to the foreshore, amenity of the foreshore area, conservation of flora and fauna, impacts of coastal hazards on development and development on coastal hazards, the maintenance and protection of heritage and water quality. These matters are to be taken into account when assessing development on the coastal zone.

A key element of SEPP 71 is the determination of ‘significant coastal development’ based on built form and location of the site to be developed. The SEPP states that if a development proposal is considered significant coastal development under Clause 9 it cannot be granted consent by Councils without the consent of the Minister and or the Director General of the Department of Planning. This means that the impacts of certain developments are more thoroughly determined by two parties (Minister/Director General and Council). Also included in this SEPP (in Clause 20) is the need for the creation of a masterplan (now referred to as a development control plan 6) for sites that are covered by this policy.

6 As amended in the EP & A Act on 25 July 2005.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 49

SEPP 71- aims: “to protect and manage the natural, cultural, recreational and economic attributes of the New South Wales coast, and to protect and improve existing public access to and along coastal foreshores to the extent that this is compatible with the natural attributes of the coastal foreshore, and to ensure that new opportunities for public access to and along coastal foreshores are identified and realised to the extent that this is compatible with the natural attributes of the coastal foreshore, and to protect and preserve Aboriginal cultural heritage, and Aboriginal places, values, customs, beliefs and traditional knowledge, and to ensure that the visual amenity of the coast is protected, and to protect and preserve beach environments and beach amenity, and to protect and preserve native coastal vegetation, and to protect and preserve the marine environment of New South Wales, and to protect and preserve rock platforms, and to manage the coastal zone in accordance with the principles of ecologically sustainable development (within the meaning of section 6 (2) of the Protection of the Environment Administration Act 1991), and to ensure that the type, bulk, scale and size of development is appropriate for the location and protects and improves the natural scenic quality of the surrounding area, and to encourage a strategic approach to coastal management.

This Policy aims to further the implementation of the Government’s coastal policy.” Figure 23 : Aims of SEPP 71 Source: NSW Government 2002: Clause 2.

The importance of SEPP 71 , in relation to coastal planning has somewhat been reduced with the gazetting of the Major Projects SEPP on 25 April 2005 and the amendment of the EP & A Act to include Part 3A (discussed above). Prior to the gazettal of the Major Projects SEPP , Clause 10 of SEPP 71 was repealed relating to development within ‘sensitive coastal locations’. The Major Projects SEPP now takes on the function defining sensitive coastal development that would previously have to be referred to the Minister of Planning for assessment. SEPP 71 has effectively been stripped of one of its key functions which substantially reduced the importance of this SEPP in the protection of the coastal zone.

The Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW is another document that was created by NSW government. This document was created in 2003 and has been developed to provide the further implementation of both the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 . The Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW provides specific guidelines for the

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 50 development of the coastal zone including the identification of the desired future character of certain coastal areas. The Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW includes guidance to reduce the development of properties that are affected by coastal processes and sea level rise. Part B of the Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW includes certain development principles in particular to guide the footprints of buildings and protection of natural coastal edges. The implementation of the Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW is delegated to the responsibility of local governments that contain parts of the coastal zone within NSW.

In addition to these policies the NSW Government has also developed State Environmental Planning Policy No. 14- Coastal Wetlands (SEPP 14). The involvement of SEPP 14 in coastal planning is minor in that it only relates to the development of certain wetland areas that have not already been listed as National Parks in the National Parks and Wildlife Act 1974 . This SEPP directs development applications pertaining to areas that contain important wetland ecosystems to the NSW Minister of Planning (Clause 6) for assessment.

The documents listed above are currently quite important in the management and planning of the coastal zone however, the future of planning and management of the coastal zone is said to be through the recently released regional strategies prepared by the NSW Government (Whitworth 2006). The NSW Department of Planning has either prepared, or is in the process of preparing a number of regional strategies for coastal areas including the Sydney Greater Metropolitan, Hunter, Central Coast, Illawarra, South Coast and North Coast Regions of New South Wales. Whitworth states that these policies will provide the framework to ensure that the impacts of sea level rise are addressed at a local government level (2006). Each of these strategies identifies the ‘natural hazards’ of the region including the impacts of climate change and sea level rise. These regional strategies make reference to the importance of the CP Act , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 , SEPP 71 and the NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990 in planning for the impacts of sea level rise and climate change. The regional strategies also include actions that are aimed at protecting coastlines from the impacts of climate change and sea level rise as shown in Figure 24 .

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 51 Actions (to protect the coastal zone from ‘natural hazards’) Councils shall undertake flood investigations that consider risks associated with climate change and prepare Floodplain Risk Management Plans. Draft LEPs must be consistent with Flood Risk Management Plans. LEPs shall make provision for adequate setbacks in areas of coastal erosion risk and ocean based inundation in accordance with Coastal Zone Management Plans Until Risk Management Plans are made by Councils and Coastal Zone Management Plans by the Minister for Natural Resources, councils cannot zone land or approve new development in potential hazard areas in isolation, unless assessed within a risk assessment framework adopted by council Zoning of land for future development within the catchments of coastal lakes (as defined in Schedule 1 of SEPP 71 ) must consider a Coastal Lake Sustainability Assessment. Figure 24 : Regional Strategies actions to manage and plan the coastal zone. Source: Department of Planning 2006: Various Strategies

Coastal planning and management in Sydney as a result of the extent to which the coastal zone has been developed and the population density contained in local government areas, has up until recently 7 been carried out under a different policy known as Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy . Although the coastal zone has been extended, this policy is still the primary coastal planning and management strategy for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (i.e. from Newcastle to Wollongong). This strategy was released by the Sydney Coastal Council Group (SCCG) and the Regional Steering Committee in 1998 to promote the “implementation of sustainable coastal planning and management practices that will ultimately protect and conserve terrestrial and marine ecosystems” (Sydney Coastal Councils Group and Regional Steering Committee 1998:5).

The Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy has similar goals to that of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 in that it promotes that the coordination of an integrated approach to coastal planning to facilitate sustainable coastal development. This strategy identifies several key responsibilities for local government in relation to climate change impacts and coastal development (Hebert and Taplin 2006). These are shown in Figure 25 . This strategy although developed on a regional scale is important to the coastal planning and management of NSW in that it relates to the states capital city, Sydney which is where the majority of coastal development and coastal population is located.

7 The coastal zone was recently extended to include some local government areas within Sydney (NSW Government 2005).

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 52 Climate change Planning Mechanisms Level of Priority Consideration of physical, ecology processes and Essential natural hazards when assessing Development Applications Incorporation sea level change scenarios set by Highly desirable IPCC Vulnerability assessment for Sydney’s entire Highly desirable coastline Development of greenhouse policies, planning and Essential building codes Assessment of existing seawalls and other Highly desirable protective structures Figure 25 : Climate change associated with the coastline considered the primary responsibility of local government. Source: Hebert and Taplin2006:38

Another plan that is relevant to planning and managing the impacts of sea level rise is the NSW Greenhouse Plan which has been recently released in 2005 by the newly established NSW Greenhouse Office. The purpose of the plan is to identify studies that should be undertaken to determine the specific impacts brought about by climate change and integrate them into the planning systems. This Plan although primarily aimed at identifying mitigation measures to reduce climate change (through greenhouse gas emissions) also aims to adapt to the impacts of climate change with a specific reference to coastal impacts. The Plan currently identifies funding for these studies into 2009, indicating that these studies may not be available for some time to come.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 53

4.7 Conclusion

Together this legislation, policies, plans and strategies discussed in this thesis are responsible for guiding coastal planning in NSW. These policies and strategies are responsible for not only guiding planning at a state level but also, and more importantly acting as guiding documents for the development assessment and policy making (including LEPs, DCPs and Coastal Management Plans) for coastal planning and management at a local government level. It is imperative that these state documents guide policy making and development assessment at the local level because this is the level where the impacts of sea level rise can be most accurately addressed as a result of the varying characteristics of the coastal zone.

It is unreasonable to assume that the NSW government can plan and manage the entire coastal zone in NSW because of the size of this area and the differing nature of the NSW coastline. Therefore is it is the responsibility of the state government to provide guiding documents that equip local governments with the knowledge, tools and data required to undertake individual coastal investigations to determine thier vulnerability to sea level rise (Australian Local Government Association 2005). These coastal investigations will inform policy making and decision making at a local government level and therefore contribute to minimising the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zones of NSW. Only when the state provides sufficient guiding documents will the impacts of sea level rise be addressed at a local government level.

Chapter 5 of this thesis builds on the planning of the coastal zone in NSW discussed above. Chapter 5 addresses the omissions or ‘gaps’ that exist in the current planning legislation of the coastal zone and the NSW planning system that result in a limited response to the impacts of sea level rise (highlighted in Chapter 3 of this thesis) at a local government level.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 54

Broken bridges over troubled waters

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 55

5.1 Introduction

This chapter of the thesis critiques both the planning documents, discussed in Chapter 4 and the NSW planning system, in their provision of guidance to address the impacts of sea level rise (discussed in Chapter 3 ) at a state and local level. This chapter also provides the basis for the recommendations to better plan and manage the impacts of sea level within NSW contained in Chapter 6 . Chapter 6 of this thesis should therefore be read in conjunction with this chapter.

5.2 Issues in the NSW system and policy

Existing knowledge

There seem to be misconceptions surrounding the information available to determine the impacts of planning for sea level rise and therefore provide a suitable planning response to this issue. The existing knowledge that has been developed on this issue is at the moment sufficient to provide a more structured response to sea level rise through NSW planning policy. However, there is still a lack of controls and direction within NSW planning policy which seems to imply the opposite: that there is not a great amount of knowledge available on managing and planning the impacts of sea level rise. Most of the planning documents

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 56 discussed in Chapter 4 indicate that a wide number of studies need to undertaken before a response to sea level rise can be undertaken. Yet, it is clear at the moment that there is an abundance of existing knowledge available to inform state policy, and therefore provide a suitable planning response to sea level rise in the short term. Planning for sea level rise in the long term however, still requires more investigation to determine the impacts of sea level rise at a local government level.

Hebert and Taplin reiterate this misconception of a lack of existing knowledge, stating “the greatest limiting factor regarding the ability of planning for coastal climate change is the lack of available information and, therefore the ability to accurately predict the impacts of future sea level rise” (2006:36). This is true to some extent: it is clear that there is a lack of information in some local government areas on the impacts of sea level rise, which results from a combination of a lack of guiding policy and funding from the NSW government (discussed below). However, at a national and state level there is an abundance of information that has already been developed with the potential to inform and guide planning for sea level rise.

There are a number of key authors who have pioneered studies on the impacts of sea level rise on human settlement and ecosystems and appropriate planning responses. These authors include Titus (1990, 1991) and Nichols (1999, 2002) in the United States of America, Bird (1993) in the United Kingdom and McInnes and Walsh (2002, 2003 and 2004) in Australia. In addition to these individual organisations such as the Australian Institute of Engineers and the CSIRO have undertaken research and subsequently presented guidelines for planning for the impacts of sea level rise within Australia and NSW (Gordon 2006).

Another important factor in terms of the existing knowledge for planning and managing the impacts of sea level rise is past experience. The impacts of sea level rise have been felt around the globe since the onset of human occupation. As has been identified throughout this thesis- we are not looking at a new phenomenon but merely an acceleration of an existing process. This means there should be, within state and local government, a basic understanding of what areas are vulnerable to sea level rise. Thus, it is clear that the NSW government has yet another (in addition to existing literature) firm base on which to develop a suitable planning response to the impacts of a rising sea level.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 57 Of the key coastal legislation and policy aimed at guiding the planning and management of the coastal zone (discussed in Chapter 4 and shown in Figure 20 , above) almost half promote the need for further investigation into the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise. These policies include the CP Act , Coastal Policy 1997 , NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990, Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy and the NSW Greenhouse Plan . It is interesting that in the face of existing knowledge, the majority of information that is aimed at guiding coastal planning is more concerned with undertaking further studies rather than utilising existing information. Gordon suggests that this current information could be used to provide interim controls to guide planning of the coastal zone (2006). This would be sufficient for planning in the short term; prior to the undertaking of further investigations at a local level to inform future planning controls for the impacts of a rising sea level.

Moreover a certain irony exists in the fact that all these policies and plans seek further investigation to determine the impacts of a rising sea level, when this information has been available to them for over 15 years in one of their own documents: the NSW Coastal Management Manual. The NSW Coastal Management Manual contains a detailed list and explanation of the impacts of planning for sea level rise. Notwithstanding this, the information is neither converted into controls in this document- or any other coastal planning policy or legislation released by the NSW Government.

The lack of planning controls in NSW coastal planning and management legislation seems to imply that there is not enough information available to inform the creation of these controls. It is clear, in light of existing literature and past experiences that there is a solid base on which the NSW government can better plan for the impacts of a rising sea level. As put simply by Gordon the “NSW government has the information but is doing nothing with it” (2006).

Responsibility

As has been discussed in Chapter 4 of this thesis, the responsibility of the state or federal government, depending on the governmental structure is to provide guidance to the planning for sea level rise at a local level. This is because of the heterogeneous nature of the coastal zone.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 58 The structure of the Australian Government is such in that the state is the ‘middle man’ between federal and local planning and therefore holds the responsibility for guiding planning for sea level rise throughout the nation (Gordon 2006). At present this responsibility is not being recognised by the NSW government; shown through its legislation, policy and actions as discussed further below.

Australia consists of a central government (the Commonwealth or Australian Government) and eight self-governing states and territories (the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, the Northern Territory, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia). The self governance of states within Australia means that individual states are therefore responsible for the development of planning legislation and policy. In the Australian system, the Commonwealth Government is seen as a coordinator of state legislation to inform the preparation of national planning and management legislation and policy. This is clearly shown in the national coastal planning document NCAICZM which aims at providing an integrated approach between states and territories in Australia to plan and manage the coastal zone (Natural Resources Ministerial Council 2006). The state governments have further importance in that they are responsible for preparing policy and legislation which legislates and guides planning at a local government level, as stated by the Australian Local Government Association (ALGA) “local councils in NSW translate state planning and management policies and legislation into local actions” (2006:1). Therefore the state government, in this case NSW is charged with the responsibility of guiding planning for sea level rise within Australia.

The strength of local and federal government legislation and policy to address the impacts of a rising sea level is therefore intimately linked to the strength of legislation and policy making at a state level. There is no other level of government that is in the strategic position that the state holds- therefore has the capability to influence planning for sea level rise to such an extent.

In my opinion the NSW state government does not realise its own significance as responsible for planning and management of the coastal zone in light of the predicted rises in sea level. This lack of responsibility is shown through the NSW Governments’ policy and legislative response to the impacts of sea level rise. The NSW government overall has developed a number of coastal planning policies and plans but all seem to fail to consider a

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 59 depth of analysis that is sufficient for guiding the planning and management of the impacts of sea level rise at a local government level.

Guiding documents

It is now clear there is a sufficient amount of knowledge that is available to inform NSW legislation and policy. It is also evident that the NSW government holds an important position in that it informs both federal and local legislation and policy. Notwithstanding this, the guiding documents released by the state government seem to lack the scope and direction that is required to ensure that the local government has sufficient tools, knowledge and data to make certain that the coastal zone will be protected against the impacts of a rising sea.

As was indicated in Chapter 4 , there are three key guiding documents in the planning and management of the coastal zone in NSW: the CP Act ; NSW Coastal Policy 1997; and SEPP 71 .

This section of the thesis will discuss the validity of these documents and their other NSW state documents in ensuring that the impacts of sea level rise are appropriately addressed at a local government level.

Of the three guiding documents released by the NSW government the CP Act , in combination with its companion document ( NSW Coastal Management Manual ) is the most valid and provides the best legislative approach to the implementation of a plan to address the impacts of sea level rise at a local level. The key attribute of the CP Act , in planning for the impacts of sea level rise, is the requirement for the preparation of a Coastal Management Plan at a local level if directed by the Minister. The CP Act’s importance in planning and managing the impacts of sea level rise however, is through another document; the NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990 and within it the NSW Coastline Hazard Policy . This Manual follows on from the CP Act and provides the next step; guiding the development of a Coastal Management Plan at a local level. This Manual proves to be one of the most important documents in defining the impacts of sea level rise on the NSW coastal zone. The Manual however, does not entirely provide guidance to local council, in that it fails to provide “defined management responses for each particular impact” to sea level rise (Hebert and Taplin 2006:39). Therefore, the CP Act is in conjunction with the NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990 highlights the issue of planning for sea level rise, yet falls short in providing

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 60 specific instruction which would help local government to address the impacts of a rising sea level.

The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 also contains some important information to guide planning for the impacts of sea level rise but ultimately is let down by its implementation of actions to address this issue. As highlighted in Chapter 4 , the policy attempts to directly address the impacts of sea level rise through the implementation of the ‘precautionary principle’. The significance of the implementation of the ‘precautionary principle’ has been supported and pioneered internationally since the Rio Declaration at the Earth Summit in June 1992, which was one of the first international meetings to validate the need to address climate change (Houghton 2004). The implementation of this document however (discussed in Part B), does not further enforce the ‘precautionary principle’ and therefore we are left with three actions (refer to Figure 22 , above), two of which prompt further investigation and one which prompts the consideration of “planning mechanisms to meet the sea level change scenarios set by the IPCC” (NSW Government 1997:48). Once again we are left with another key document that provides only a loose guidance of planning for the impacts of sea level rise at a local level.

The third guiding document is SEPP 71 which would appear to further the important information contained within the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 in that it has been developed to “further the implementation of the Government’s coastal policy [ NSW Coastal Policy 1997 ]” (2002: Clause 2). However, Whitworth states that this is in fact not the case and that “SEPP 71 was never designed to be the governments’ response to climate change” (2006). Further to this, any potential that the SEPP had in protecting against the impacts of sea level rise has been removed with the gazetting of the Major Projects SEPP (refer to Chapter 4 for further detail). SEPP 71 is therefore a planning instrument that, although promoting ‘coastal protection’, contains no relevance to the impacts of sea level rise and has now been made redundant by a subsequent planning instrument.

In combination, the CP Act , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 as a package, prepared by the NSW government to protect the coastal zone are insufficient in that they do not adequately address one of the greatest issues in the future; the impact of a rising sea level. These documents collectively highlight some of the impacts of sea level rise but provide no

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 61 specific controls to address the impacts of a rising sea level. The NSW government has placed a substantial amount of faith in these documents to protect the NSW coastal zone.

The limited scope and lack of implementing controls contained within these guiding documents is even more disconcerting because these policies are the key guiding documents in which all other documents reference and are based (as shown in Figure 20 , above). If these key guiding documents ( CP Act , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 ) are not sufficiently addressing the issue of sea level rise, and other planning documents are referencing these documents, then there is potential for this issue to be overlooked by policy in the future. The state’s inability to provide suitable guidance through ‘guiding documentation’ means that many areas vulnerable to sea level rise have the potential to experience serious impacts on both natural ecosystems and human settlement in the future.

Legislative enforcement

Of the entire range of documents released by the NSW government to manage and plan the coastal zone only CP Act and SEPP 71 have any legislative force. Unlike other documents, discussed above, the controls and directions contained within the CP Act and SEPP 71 have to be implemented within local government development assessment and policy making. This means that local government is required by law to enforce the controls and directions contained within these documents.

As has been highlighted above, SEPP 71 contains limited (if any) scope to address the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone. This means that the only policy released by the NSW government that has the potential to reduce the impacts of sea level rise with any legislative force is the CP Act . This is a concerning situation with the legislative powers of the state being reduced exclusively to the development of coastal management plans guided by a document ( NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990 ) that is void of any specific planning response to sea level rise (as discussed above).

This also means that the NSW Government is relying on an Act that was created in 1979 prior to the understanding of future climate changes-to ensure that climate change is addressed at a local level (Gordon 2006). Of further concern is that the Act draws upon a

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 62 document (NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990) that is over 15 years old and has not since creation been updated to include any recent scientific information on sea level rise.

Local government within NSW is therefore faced with only one strict requirement to ensure that the impacts of sea level rise are addressed (i.e. the development of a Coastal Management Plan). Thus, the protection of the coastal zone against sea level rise is based on the level at which local government is willing to address this issue.

Funding

Another key issue evident in the NSW government system is a lack of funding provided to the local government from the NSW Government to carry out investigations and ascertain suitable responses to a rising sea level (Hebert and Taplin 2006). The inaccuracies of the NSW Government’s coastal planning legislation and policies aside; it is clear the successful implementation of planning for sea level rise at a local level requires substantial financial support from the NSW Government. If the NSW government does not provide suitable funding to investigate this issue then it seems to reduce the importance of the need for it to be addressed by local government.

The NSW Coastal Management Manual points out that state government is to provide financial assistance to local governments at a ratio of 1:1 (i.e. 1 state: 1 council) to implement Coastal Management Plans (NSW Government 1990). The ALGA has identified that “the flow of funding to councils undertaking coastal projects has fallen significantly” (2005:14). Hence, some local government areas that need to undertake studies to inform legislation and plans, to address sea level rise may be hindered from doing so through a lack of appropriate funding.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 63

5.3 Conclusion

The NSW government has developed Acts, policies, plans and strategies relating to the coastal zone. Some of these policies have made minor contributions to planning for the impacts of sea level rise. However, the contributions made by a limited number of policies are overshadowed by an overall insufficiency to provide legislation and plans that specifically address the impacts associated with this environmental issue.

The omissions within the NSW Government’s legislation, policy and strategies and the NSW planning system, have the potential to hinder local government’s undertaking of investigations, development assessment and policy making in regards to the coastal zone. Until the NSW Government provides more detail through their guiding documents and resolves the issues surrounding the implementation of legislation, policy and strategies, planning for sea level rise will be seriously limited in NSW and the greater Australian context. These issues have the potential to result in serious impacts on natural ecosystems and human settlement under predicted sea level rise.

Chapter 6 of this thesis furthers the discussion in this chapter by providing recommendations to the NSW State Government to improve planning for the impacts of sea level rise. Chapter 6 also provides a conclusion to the core themes discussed in this thesis.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 64

Recommendations Conclusion

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 65

6.1 Introduction

The first section of this chapter provides recommendations to strengthen NSW planning legislation and policy and the NSW planning system in providing adequate adaptive responses to sea level rise in the future. This section of the chapter should be read in conjunction with Chapter 5 which provides the justification for these recommendations.

The second section of this chapter provides a conclusion highlighting the key themes and issues raised throughout this thesis.

6.2 Recommendations

Chapter 5 has provided a key insight into the omissions or ‘gaps’ that are evident in NSW planning policy and the NSW planning system. These omissions or ‘gaps’ have the potential to hinder the development of a suitable response to planning and managing the impacts of sea level rise in the future. The following is a list of recommendations that follow on from the discussion in Chapter 5 . These recommendations are specifically aimed at the NSW government as they are ultimately responsible for the protection of the coastal zone in the future.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 66 Existing knowledge

Issue There is sufficient knowledge on the impacts of sea level rise highlighted through literature and agency studies that can be used in the short term to inform planning and management of the impacts of sea level rise.

Recommendation Existing knowledge and past experience should be used, in the short term, to make interim controls in state policy which appropriately guide development and policy making at a local level to address the impacts of sea level rise.

Issue There appears to be a lack of information available to specifically determine which areas within local government will be vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and therefore guide planning and management of the coastal zone in the long term.

Recommendation The NSW government through policy should guide the planning and management of the impacts of sea level rise in the long term fostering further investigations at a local level in consideration of this base of existing knowledge and past experience.

Responsibility

Issue The NSW government is not appropriately meeting its responsibility to the federal government and local government in protecting the coastal zone from the impacts of sea level rise.

Recommendation The NSW government needs to prepare appropriate policy that recognises its responsibility in guiding local government and informing the federal government on responses to protect the coastal zone.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 67 Guiding documents

Issue As part of the NSW Coastal Management Manual , the CP Act is the only one of the three guiding documents that provides any indication of the impacts associated with sea level rise, yet does not include any adaptive responses.

Recommendation The NSW government needs to prescribe a number of valid responses that can be undertaken by local government to adapt to the impacts of a rising sea level.

Explanation These adaptive responses to sea level rise could be included within the NSW Coastal Management Manual the use of which at a local government level is enforced by law through the CP Act . An alternative would be to create a new state document in which these adaptive responses could be highlighted to local government.

Issue The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 discusses the importance of the ‘precautionary principle’ but does not provide sufficient actions in which it can be implemented.

Recommendation NSW government policy must provide sufficient actions or controls in legislation or policy to support the use of the ‘precautionary principle’ in local coastal planning and management.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 68 Issue None of the three guiding documents ( CP Act , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 ) include sufficient detail to appropriately guide planning for sea level rise at a local level.

Recommendation The NSW government either needs to strengthen these existing documents with the inclusion of controls or provide another document which does so and is equivalent to or greater in status to the CP Act, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 .

Issue Existing guiding documents ( CP Act , NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 ) do not include sufficient detail to appropriately guide planning for sea level rise at a local level however they are referenced by other planning policies, plans, manuals and strategies.

Recommendation The NSW government should either strengthen existing guiding documents to provide controls to address the impacts of sea level rise, or ensure that documents referencing them or based on them, include their own measures to ensure the impacts of sea level rise are addressed in development assessment and policy making.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 69 Legislative enforcement

Issue The only one of the three guiding documents released by the NSW government to protect the coastal zone against sea level rise that is enforceable by law is the CP Act , which is outdated and provides only limited insight into the impacts of a rising sea level.

Recommendation The NSW government should provide more legislative force to existing documentation such as the NSW Coastal Policy or as an alternative update the CP Act through the NSW Coastal Management Manual discussed above.

Funding

Issue The NSW government has been reducing the amount of funding to local government to undertake coastal projects, therefore reducing the importance of planning and managing the impacts of a rising sea level.

Recommendation Further funding should be provided to local governments by the NSW government to undertake coastal projects in particular relating to the vulnerability of their coastal zone to the impacts of a rising sea level.

Explanation At a minimum, funding should be provided by the NSW government in accordance with the NSW Coastal Management Manual (i.e. at a ratio of 1 state: 1 local government). This would highlight the importance of addressing the impacts of sea level rise, allowing local government further investigate areas vulnerable to this environmental issue. This recommendation would facilitate for the knowledge recommendation discussed above.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 70 It is hoped that the NSW government will carry out these recommendations ensuring both it and local government provide suitable adaptive response to sea level rise in the future.

6.2 Conclusion

Of all the impacts caused by global warming, “accelerated sea level rise is regarded as the most certain” (Douglas et al, 183:2001). Sea level will rise in the near future and for hundreds of year to come. The most accurate and popular prediction indicates that sea level will be one metre above the current levels by the year 2100. However, this prediction can be regarded as conservative, as there is still a high level of uncertainty surrounding how much the atmosphere will heat and therefore how quickly the glaciers and ice sheets around the world will melt. Thus, it can therefore not be ruled out that the world may not experience up to a six metre sea level rise by the year 2100.

Sea level rise will continue to be monitored through long term tidal gauges and satellite images to try and determine patterns and reduce the uncertainty surrounding this issue. In addition, advanced computer modelling will be used ascertain the way in which the environment will react to greenhouse gas emissions- inturn more accurately predicting the expected sea level rise.

Sea level will rise in the future through the same natural processes that have caused historical sea level fluctuations. The only difference between sea level rise in the past and the future is that projected sea level will rise at an accelerated rate as a direct result of human intervention into the earth’s natural processes. It is expected that initial sea level rises will be through the melting of glaciers with a significant contribution from the Antarctic. However, as atmospheric temperatures are consistently above average, oceans around the world will begin to warm resulting in thermal expansion which will dramatically raise sea levels around the globe. The massive amount of water contained within the ocean means that once the process of thermal expansion begins it will take a significant and consistent period of atmospheric cooling to stop its momentum.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 71 This rise in sea level will bring with it a number of general impacts that will have detrimental effects on both natural ecosystems and human settlement. Sea level rise will result in the direct inundation of areas, allowing storm surge flooding to penetrate further inland and undermine the coastal zone through increased erosion. These impacts will place further stress on already fragile ecosystems including beaches, wetlands and coral reefs prompting them to either adapt or perish. The devastation of these ecosystems and consequently the loss of natural buffers, will mean that human settlement will be more susceptible to a rising sea level. Some nations will not be greatly affected from the sea level rise whilst others will be highly vulnerable, with a potential for a substantial loss of land area and human life.

At this point in time our actions in the past have ensured that sea level rise in the near future cannot be avoided. Therefore the governments of nations that are vulnerable to sea level rise need to establish suitable adaptive responses to address this issue now. Governments around the world have already taken an integrated approach through the development of intergovernmental policies to address rising sea levels. Some governments with regions that are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise have built upon intergovernmental strategies through the development of more specific strategies to address the impacts expected within their nation. However, the development of suitable responses to adapt to sea level rise has not been undertaken by governments within some vulnerable nations.

Within Australia the state government is responsible for informing the federal government; and providing guidance to local government, in relation to the protection of the coastal zone. This is no more apparent than in NSW, where the government has created a number of documents, guided by three in particular, each containing separate qualities that attribute to a protection of the coastal zone against hazards. Some of these documents include sections to directly address the impacts of a rising sea level, however there are some omissions or gaps in NSW policy and the NSW planning system that result in an unsuitable planning and management of the coastal zone. Issues relating to recognition of existing knowledge and past experience, acceptance of the states strategic responsibility, limited scope in guiding coastal documents, legislative enforcement of these documents and inappropriate funding, collectively hinder the response to the impacts of a rising sea level in NSW. The NSW

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 72 government needs to ensure that any issues surrounding coastal planning are addressed, so that sea level rise does not adversely affect natural ecosystems and human settlement within the vulnerable nation of Australia.

Only through suitable policy and legislation can responses be developed to adapt to accelerated sea level rise in the future. Governments have a responsibility to future generations to begin to address this issue now before nations, states and localities are faced with irreversible impacts on both natural ecosystems and human settlement in the near future. It is only hoped that this environmental issue can be addressed before it is too late.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 73

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Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 79 Interviewees Curriculum Vitae

Brett Whitworth Curriculum Vitae

Personal details Brett Christopher Whitworth.

Acting Director Regional Coordination Unit Rural and Regional Planning Department of Planning (02) 9228 6111 wk, 0419 401 825 mob

Education

1995 to 1999: Masters of Natural Resources Law and Policy, through the Centre for Natural Resources Law and Policy. Courses completed; Natural resources law, Local Government Law, Resources Decision Making, Water Law and Law of Land and Nature Conservation, University of Wollongong.

1987 to 1991: Bachelor of Science (Class 2, Division I honours) majoring in Applied Economic Geography, University of New South Wales.

Professional History

Department of Planning March 2006 to current: Regional Coordination Branch, Rural and Regional Planning Division.

Sutherland Shire Council July 2005 to March 2006: Senior Environmental Planner, Environmental Planning Unit.

Whitworth Consulting July 2004 to July 2005: Principal of Whitworth Consulting, planning and policy consultants.

State Government Departments of Planning (various forms) • October 2002 to June 2004: Regional Planning Manager, Illawarra and South Coast • February 2004 to April 2004: Secondment to the BASIX Team to provide regulatory advice for the implementation of BASIX (2 days per week) • August 2003 to October 2003: Secondment to the Regulation Review – Local Development Taskforce Secretariat (2 days per week) • June 2002 to September 2002: Acting Executive Policy Director for Sue Holliday (Director- General of Planning NSW) • May 1997 to June 2002: Policy and Reform Branch, Planning and Building System Division. Part of the management team responsible for the development and now the implementation of the Integrated Development Assessment Reforms. Have been responsible for the liaison and negotiation with councils and State agencies over the implementation of the integrated development assessment reforms. I have held a number of positions in the Branch: o Environmental Planner (May 1997 – February 1999)

1 o Senior Planner (February 1999 – April 2000) o Acting Assistant Director (April 2000 – August 2000) o Assistant Director (August 2000 – June 2002 ) o Acting Director (29 May 2001 – 20 July 2001) • November 1996 to April 1997: Environmental Planner, Southern and Western Regions Branch. • December 1995 to November 1996: Special Projects Officer in the Illawarra Branch. Responsible for the coordination of the Better Cities projects in West Dapto (Sustainable Growth Management Framework) and Campbelltown (Urban Revitalisation of Housing Estates), the assessment of major development proposals - Port Kembla Copper Smelter and 800 lot coastal subdivision at Culburra and Planning Officer to the Illawarra Regional Subcommittee of the Metropolitan Strategy Committee. • July 1995 to September 1995: Technical Assistant to the Director (G Kibble), seconded to the Executive Unit of the Department. • October 1993 to November 1996: Assistant Environmental Planner, Illawarra/Macarthur Regional Office. Variously Area Officer for Wollongong City Council, Campbelltown City Council and Shoalhaven City Council, as well as assisting in the release of the Illawarra Urban Development Program.

Coastal Planning Experience

Regional Strategic Planning • Coordination of the roll out of regional strategies, in particular the finalisation of the Illawarra Regional Strategy, the Mid North Coast Regional Strategy and the Lower Hunter Regional Strategy • Management of a consistent approach on natural resource and coastal adaptation issues in Regional Strategies: o Requiring councils to prepare combination of estuary management, coastal zone management and floodplain risk management plans to deal with sea-level change and coastal zone impacts o Combination of biodiversity protection measures through regional conservation plans, and protection of SEPP 14 and 26 areas o Implementation of Healthy Rivers Commission inquiry into coastal lakes • Initial preparation of a regional planning strategy for the Illawarra and South Coast, including profile studies (Headline Planning issues, Economic and Demographic profile, social profile, housing supply and demand, environmental sustainability issues, retail centres review, employment lands strategy and agricultural diversification) and stakeholder engagement • Coordination of the implementation of coastal management principles to be implemented through planning instruments at the local and regional level, as well as structures for the Narooma, Bermagui and Snug Cove masterplans. • Review of environmental planning instruments applying to coastal region, including State Environmental Planning Policies (71, 14 and 26), Regional Environmental Plans and Local Environmental Plans.

2 Major Development Assessment • Major projects assessed include; the Port Kembla Copper Smelter, an 800 lot subdivision in the sensitive catchment of Lake Wollumboola at Culburra, the $400M Tin Mill proposal at BHP Wollongong, and the extension of the Wongawilli Waste Emplacement at Wollongong.

Strategic Planning – Sutherland Shire Council • Statutory planning functions o LEP and DCP process – implementation and review of Sutherland consolidated LEP and DCP o Development advice and customer service relating to SEPP 71 issues – notably pre- DA discussions for DA at Cronulla (first metro DA determined under SEPP 71) • Coordination of the introduction of new planning controls, particularly the introduction of SEPP 71 in the Sutherland Shire o Mapping of coastal zone and sensitive coastal locations o Identification of revised development assessment procedures o Review of key development applications in the coastal zone.

Strategic Planning and Development Assessment – Whitworth Consulting • Growth Management Strategy for Shoalhaven City Council o Review of issues papers o Development of strategy – background paper and succinct issues paper and spatial strategy o Project management of process • Manage and prepare the development application for a State Significant SEPP 71 Coastal Development involving a residential subdivision and townhouse development of 85 lots at Coffs Harbour • Presentation on SEPP 71 and coastal development issues to NEERG and Planning Institute of Australia Seminars

Angus Gordon Curriculum Vitae

Personal details Angus Donald Gordon

46 Taiyul Road (H) North Narrabeen NSW 2101 9913 8064 (T/F)

Education

1969 B.E. (Civil), The University of New South Wales, 1972 M.Eng.Sc. (Water and Coastal), The University of New South Wales 1985 Executive Development Course, Institute of Administration, 1987 Management of Research and Development, Inst. of Administration,

Professional History

1996-2005 Chief Executive Officer, Pittwater Council 1995-1996 Business Development Manager, AWT EnSight 1994-1995 Manager, Private Sector Infrastructure, Public Works 1993-1994 Manager, CEO Executive Support, Public Works 1986-1993 Director, AWACS Pty Ltd., Manager Manly Hydraulics Laboratory 1977-1986 Inspecting Engineer, Public Works 1977 Antarctic Division 1976-1977 Supervising Engineer, Public Works 1973-1975 Project Engineer, Manly Hydraulic Laboratory 1972-1973 Water and Sewerage Design Engineer, Shoalhaven Shire Council 1972 Lecturer, Civil Engineering, Uni of NSW 1970-1972 Project Engineer Water Research Laboratory, Uni of NSW 1966-1970 Full Time Civil Engineering Degree 1964-1966 Commercial Management Trainee Qantas Airways

Coastal Planning Experience

Engineering Byron Bay (NSW) - 1977-1979, 2000 Tweed Heads (NSW) - 1983-1989 New Brighton (NSW) - 1977-1979 Warringah Shire - 1982-1984 Tathra (NSW) - 1980 Cronulla (NSW) - 1977-Present Hawks Nest (NSW) - 1982-1984 Sydney (NSW) - 1989 NSW Coastal Zone Management Policy - 1977-1986

4 Jerudong (Brunei) - 1992, 1993 Jakarta (Indonesia) 1994

Estuary, River and Wetlands Management Forster/Tuncurry (NSW) - 1979-1980 Dee Why (NSW) - 1977-1982 Warriewood (NSW) 1979-Present South West Rocks (NSW) - 1985 Lake Burrill (NSW) - 1972 Shuwalkh (Kuwait) - 1990 Shoalhaven (NSW) 1973-Present Jakarta (Indonesia) - 1994-1995 Dubai (UAE) – 1995

Sediment Transport-Coastal process studies, sand movement onshore/offshore, longshore and beach erosion Newcastle Bight (NSW) - 1974-1977 Hawks Nest (NSW) - 1982 Wamberal (NSW) - 1978, 1984 Cronulla (NSW) - 1977-Present Byron Bay (NSW) - 1977, 1978 Carama Inlet (NSW) - 1989 Tathra (NSW) - 1980 Fly Point (NSW) - 1989 Broken Bay (NSW) - 1981 Tweed Heads (NSW) - 1989 Burnie (Tas) - 1981 Somers (VIC) - 1991 Hawks Nest (NSW) - 1982 Belmont (NSW) - 1991 Sydney Shelf (NSW) - 1979 Jerudong (Brunei) - 1991

Wave Climate Studies Bombo (NSW) - 1970 Pilot Bay (Tas) - 1971

Sand Bypassing Studies Tweed Heads (NSW) - 1989, 1990 Shoalhaven (NSW) - 1974 Kempsey (NSW) - 1973 Narrabeen (NSW) - 1987 Woden Valley (ACT) - 1975 Manning (NSW) - 1989

Shelf Currents Studies Various Studies on NSW Shelf (Tweed, Coffs, Gosford, Sydney, Illawarra)

Outfall Monitoring/Studies Sydney (North Head/Bondi/Malabar) (NSW) - 1987-1993 Illawarra (NSW) – 1991 Hong Kong - 1995

Climatic Change Various research studies on Climatic change Input; sea level; coastal erosion; flooding) 1980-Present Marina Studies Southport Yacht Club (Qld) - 1991 Royal Prince Alfred YC (NSW) 1992, 1993

Interview questions

Interview Questions-Brett Whitworth

Preliminary Questions

1. Could you please provide me with a brief outline of your professional qualifications and experience in regards to coastal planning? 2. How long where you at local government? 3. How long have you been at state government?

State Legislation/Policy -aimed at planning experience

4. What do you see as the key issues facing the NSW Coastline: a. Now? b. And looking into the future? 5. In coastal planning what level of government do you see as being most instrumental? (In terms of providing framework etc?) 6. You have been instrumental in the development of SEPP 71-Coastal Protection. What type of studies where undertaken in preparation for the development of this policy? 7. Where any of these studies specifically relating to the impacts of sea level rise? 8. To what extent did the Australian and local government provide input into SEPP 71 ? 9. One of the actions to meet the objectives of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 is to consider appropriate planning mechanisms for incorporating sea level change scenarios into coastal policy. SEPP 71 has been created to “further the implementation of the Government’s coastal policy”. What sections of this SEPP do you see as carrying out this function? 10. Do you think the repeal of Clause 10 into the Major Projects SEPP has reduced the importance of SEPP 71 in planning for the coastal zone? 11. Do you believe that SEPP 71 is missing anything in relation to coastal planning and more specifically in planning for sea level rise? 12. You worked in local government after the release of SEPP 71 . How did this SEPP influence coastal planning in your local government area? 13. Was there any opportunity for SEPP 71 to contain more specific guidelines to coastal planning and management such as a document like the Australian standards or to be integrated through an LEP template?

Interview Questions-Angus Gordon

Preliminary Questions

14. Could you please provide me with a brief outline of your professional qualifications and experience? 15. How long where you at local government? 16. What experiences/qualifications do you think you hold that particularly add to your knowledge of climate change and more specifically the impacts of sea level rise?

Impacts of sea level rise -aimed at science experience

17. There is a constant debate about whether or not we are currently experiencing the impacts of climate change in particular through past sea level rises. Where do you stand on this debate? 18. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that sea level will rise by 88cm-1m by the year 2100. There are said to be substantial impacts felt around the world as a result of this in terms of erosion, inundation and storm surge flooding. a. How vulnerable do you think Aust/NSW is to the impacts of sea level rise? b. What do you think the most significant impacts will be? c. Where are the most vulnerable areas? Examples?

State Legislation/Policy -aimed at planning experience

19. In planning for the impacts of sea level rise what level of government do you see as being most instrumental? (In terms of providing guidance etc?) 20. In your opinion has the State government undertaken sufficient studies to determine the specific impacts of sea level rise in NSW? 21. Ignoring whether or not we are experiencing impacts of climate change at the moment. Do you think that current State legislation/policy is accurately protecting the coastal zone (both ecosystems and development) from hazards (eg erosion, storm surge flooding)? 22. Now taking into account that there will be severe impacts on the coastline brought about by sea level rise in the near future. Do you think that current State legislation/policy is accurately protecting the coastal zone (both ecosystems and development) from projected hazards (eg erosion, storm surge flooding)? 23. You have previously mentioned some faults in SEPP 71-Coastal Protection in the past in that it is insufficient in protecting our coastlines from the impacts of sea level rise. Can you provide more detail on this? 24. So what do you see as the key oversights in NSW planning coastal policy in regards to coastal protection from the impacts of sea level rise? i.e. what needs to be included? What could be done better?

Local Government Experience

25. You have had experience as a senior manager in a local government area located within the coastal zone. Do you think the State govt. provided you appropriate tools, knowledge, framework and funding to allow you to carry out studies into the impacts of sea level rise on your LGA? 26. What studies where undertaken in your local government area to determine the vulnerability to the impacts of sea level rise? 27. What state policies provided you with the most guidance in regards to planning and management of the coastline in light of the impacts of sea level rise?

UNSW FBE Ethics Approval