COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL RETAIL | SINGAPORE | RESEARCH | H2 2018 | 1 MARCH 2019 Tricia Song Director and Head | Research | Singapore +65 6531 8536 RETAIL THERAPY
[email protected] Firming retail market fundamentals provide optimism for 2019 2018–23 Summary & H2 2018 Full Year 2019 Annual Average Recommendations > Any demand recovery is likely to be two- Singapore’s retail rents may have tiered, with higher demand for malls with sizable catchments and for ground-floor bottomed, even as near-term Demand retail space. -22,000 sq ft 1.56mn sq ft 669,000 sq ft vacancies remain elevated as brand new malls complete and compete. > Elevated new supply in 2018-2019 (est. 3.5% of stock) is well distributed across Singapore. > The government-backed Island-wide supply pipelines should taper off Supply 786,000 sq ft 1.35mn sq ft 569,000 sq ft remaking of Orchard Road over 2020-2023. may herald brighter Annual Average prospects for retailers and HOH/ YOY / Growth 2018–23 / landlords in 2019-2023. End H2 End 2019 End 2023 > We only cover ground floor rents. Ground- > Landlords should adopt a 2.0% 0.8% 1.0% digital-ready strategy, floor rents at Orchard Road and Regional Centres rose 1.4% and 0.4% respectively in diversified tenant mix, and 2018. We expect ground-floor rents to lead Rent SGD41.20* SGD41.55* SGD43.20* have adaptability for both recovery over 2018-2023. consumer and tenant needs. > Island-wide vacancy to improve in 2019- 1.2pp -0.5pp -0.3pp > Investors should seek strata- 2023 as front-loaded supply gets absorbed.