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Vulnerability Assessment of Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and Its Influence Watersheds

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Vulnerability Assessment of Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and Its Influence Watersheds Baseline Assessment: Vulnerability Assessment of Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its Influence Watersheds Philippines Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program 22 June 2015 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics International Inc. The Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience Program is funded by the USAID, Contract No. AID-492-C-13-00002 and implemented by Chemonics International in association with: Fauna and Flora International (FFI) Haribon Foundation World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Vulnerability Assessment of Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its Influence Watersheds Philippines Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program Implemented with: Department of Environment and Natural Resources Other National Government Agencies Local Government Units and Agencies Supported by: United States Agency for International Development Contract No.: AID-492-C-13-00002 Managed by: Chemonics International Inc. in partnership with Fauna & Flora International (FFI) Haribon Foundation World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) 22 June 2015 CONTENTS List of Figures ............................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................ iii List of Plates ................................................................................................................. iv Acronyms ...................................................................................................................... v Rationale ...................................................................................................................... vii The Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its Influence Watersheds ....................... 1 The Climate Profile ........................................................................................................ 4 Baseline climate ..................................................................................................... 4 Climate scenario for Bukidnon Province in 2020 and 2050 .................................... 6 Assessment Framework and Methodology ................................................................. 9 Data Collection....................................................................................................... 9 Vulnerability Assessment ....................................................................................... 9 Hazards Assessment ........................................................................................... 11 Flood Hazard Assessment .................................................................................. 11 Drought Hazard Assessment .............................................................................. 12 Landslide Hazard Assessment ............................................................................ 14 Land Capability Classification .............................................................................. 15 Generation of Soil Erosion Potential ................................................................... 17 Rainfall Factor (R) ............................................................................................... 17 Soil Erodibility Factor (K) ..................................................................................... 17 Slope length and slope gradient factor (LS) ........................................................ 18 Creation of Soil Loss Tolerance .......................................................................... 19 Determination of Soil Erosion Index .................................................................... 19 Generation of Land Capability Classification ....................................................... 20 Validation ............................................................................................................. 21 Findings ....................................................................................................................... 23 Hazards Assessment ........................................................................................... 23 Flood Hazard Assessment .................................................................................. 23 Drought Hazard Assessment .............................................................................. 38 Landslide Hazard Assessment ............................................................................ 54 Land Capability Classification .............................................................................. 68 Protection Areas .................................................................................................. 68 Key Biodiversity Areas ......................................................................................... 68 Stream Buffer Areas ............................................................................................ 69 Production Areas ................................................................................................. 70 Multiple Use Zone ................................................................................................ 70 Limited Production Zone ...................................................................................... 70 Unlimited Production Zone .................................................................................. 71 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MT. KITANGLAD RANGE NATURAL PARK | i Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 74 Recommendation ........................................................................................................ 75 References ................................................................................................................... 76 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Location of the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 3 Figure 2. Record of tropical cyclones that passed through the region covering the influence watersheds during the period 1948 - 2009 (PAGASA) ............................... 5 Figure 3. Monthly rainfall based on CNCM3 model for 2020s and 2050s periods in Bukidnon Province ...................................................................................................... 7 Figure 4. Framework of the vulnerability assessment ............................................................. 10 Figure 5. Framework for erosion-based land capability classification system ......................... 16 Figure 6. Location of site visited for validation and assessment ............................................. 22 Figure 7. Flood vulnerability based on CNCM3 model observed scenario in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ................................... 33 Figure 8. Flood vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A1B scenario for the 2020s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 34 Figure 9. Flood vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A1B scenario for the 2050s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 35 Figure 10. Flood vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A2 scenario for the 2020s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 36 Figure 11. Flood vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A2 scenario for the 2050s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 37 Figure 12. Standardized precipitation index based on CNCM3 A1B scenario .......................... 40 Figure 13. Standardized precipitation index based on CNCM3 A2 scenario............................. 41 Figure 14. Drought vulnerability based on CNCM3 model observed scenario in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ................................... 49 Figure 15. Drought vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A1B scenario for the 2020s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 50 Figure 16. Drought vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A1B scenario for the 2050s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 51 Figure 17. Drought vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A2 scenario for the 2020s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 52 Figure 18. Drought vulnerability based on CNCM3 model with A2 scenario for the 2050s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ....... 53 Figure 19. Rain-Induced landslide based on CNCM3 model observed scenario in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds ................................... 63 Figure 20. Rain-Induced landslide based on CNCM3 model with A1B scenario for the 2020s period in the Mt. Kitanglad Range Natural Park and its influence watersheds................................................................................................................ 64 Figure 21. Rain-Induced landslide based on CNCM3 model with A1B scenario for
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