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Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 07 Jul 2021 08:45 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article J D Wetherspoon Trading better than our expectations Company Events with ND lower. FY22 sales in line with FY19 best estimate 07-Jul Vistry Group; Q221 Trading Update 08-Jul Grafton Group; Q221 Trading Update 888 Holdings Strong Q2 against tough comps leads to Persimmon; Q221 Trading Update Supermarket Income REIT; Q4 Ex div further upgrades 12-Jul Great Portland Estates; Ex Final Div 14-Jul Barratt Developments; Q421 Trading Update Rank Group Announces it has signed a new two year £25m RCF Redrow Expecting double digit upgrades to FY22 consensus Vistry Group HPI continues to “more than” offset CPI Great Portland Estates Pre-lettings progress at 70 Oxford Street UK Economic View Stamp duty pull-back takes steam out of housing market – Halifax HPI Economic Events Ireland 08-Jul CPI Jun21 United Kingdom 09-Jul Construction Output May21 GDP May21 Trade Balance May21 Industrial Production May21 Manufacturing Production May21 14-Jul CPI Jun21 PPI Jun21 Retail Price Index Jun21 ONS House Price May21 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap J D Wetherspoon Trading better than our expectations with ND lower. FY22 sales in line with FY19 best estimate JDW this morning released a pre-close for H1 to date. During the initial reopening period, Recommendation: Hold between 12 April and 16 May (outdoor only), 500 pubs or 58% of the estate was open and Closing Price: £12.39 LFL bar and food sales were down 49% compared to 2019. Between 17 May and 4 July, LFL sales were -14.6% (-8.1% before the European Champs and -21% during the tournament). Paul Ruddy +353 1 641 6024 It notes that 850 of the 860 Wetherspoon pubs are now open. At first glance and assuming [email protected] some recovery post the conclusion of the European championships, this implies H2 revenue c.10% ahead of our current forecast. Net debt was £865m on 4th of July and is expected to be c.£833m at the end of this financial year (July), which compares favourably to our estimate of £900m. It highlights that EBITDA covenants have been waived up to July 2021 and have been replaced by minimum liquidity requirements of £75m. It expects liquidity to be c.£253m at the end of the financial year. It intends to enter discussions with lenders regarding waivers for the next financial year. The group has opened two new pubs in H2, and has a pipeline of 18 new pubs and 57 extensions. With regard to outlook, it continues to expect to make a loss for the current year and reiterates that its current best estimate for FY22 is that sales will be in line with FY19, on the basis that restrictions are ended as the government intends. We currently forecast FY22 sales broadly in line with FY19 levels so it is reassuring to hear this remains its best estimates. Net Debt forecasts are a better than our forecasts also which is helpful. JDW trades on just below 10x FY23 EV/EBITDA. We continue to value the company on 11x FY23 EBITDA and discount by a year which gives a price target of 1370p and are positive on the prospects for the group through the recovery phase. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 07 Jul. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap 888 Holdings Strong Q2 against tough comps leads to further upgrades 888 released a post-close trading update this morning. Group revenue increased +19% Recommendation: Buy (+11% cc) in Q2 to $256m, resulting in growth of 39% for H1. B2C revenue grew by 21% Closing Price: £4.13 (+11% cc) in Q2 with B2B -7% (-15% cc). On outlook, management continues to be Gavin Kelleher cautious around the second half of the year given the potential for greater than normal +353-1-641 0423 seasonality in the summer post-COVID-19, tough YoY comps in Q4, and the previously [email protected] announced impact of regulatory and compliance changes. The statement notes how average daily revenues in the UK are down 20% since May 17th (when leisure reopened) versus the YTD period prior to that. Notwithstanding managements cautious outlook, it expects adjusted EBITDA to be slightly ahead of 2020, from flat YoY previously. The Group will report H1 results on September 1st. Casino continues to be the largest vertical, and grew by 13% in Q2 (+41% in H1). Sport delivered very strong growth YoY, growing by 94%, albeit against a soft comparative period in Q220. Sport grew by 76% in H1. Poker and bingo revenue were both lower YoY in Q2, which should not come as a surprise given the tough YoY comps. B2B revenue declined by - 7% in Q2, again against a tough YoY comp. Overall, this is another positive update from 888, with its third upgrade of FY21 displaying further evidence of the strong momentum in the business. At first glance, we expect to update our FY21 revenue by 4% and EBITDA by 3% on the back of today’s update. This comes on the back of 14% and 3% upgrades already delivered to FY21 EBITDA this year. We accept managements caution into H2 given the YoY headwinds, but it still feels like the bias to numbers remains to the upside. M&A and US optionality continue to be key themes for the investment case. On the M&A side, WMH is a deal that we think makes a lot of strategic sense for the Group, while the recently announced SI deal increases its chances of success in the US. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 07 Jul. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Rank Group Announces it has signed a new two year £25m RCF Rank has this morning announced that it has signed a new two year £25m Revolving Credit Recommendation: Buy Closing Price: £1.84 Facility (RCF) with Lloyd’s Bank. The new facility is subject to the same financial covenant waiver as its other bank facility agreements, including a quarterly minimum of £50m cash Gavin Kelleher and available facilities test. This RCF is in addition to the groups existing £55m RCF and the +353-1-641 0423 remaining £108.4m term loan. The facility provides the Group with additional liquidity and [email protected] the opportunity to accelerate investment in its transformation plan when it is confident that the Group is delivering sustainable positive cashflow. This is another incremental positive for Rank following last weeks trading update and confirmation of its £80m VAT refund claim. A key target for the Group since the onset of COVID has been maintaining sufficient liquidity. Given the positive early signs from its venues reopening and with lockdown restrictions significantly easing, the Group appears well placed from a liquidity perspective, particularly with the potential £80m VAT refund and now this RCF. We continue to like Rank as an attractive recovery play. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 07 Jul. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Redrow Expecting double digit upgrades to FY22 consensus Redrow issued an unscheduled FY21 trading update this morning. Since issuing interim Recommendation: Buy results in early February the sales market has remained strong. Excluding PRS reservations, Closing Price: £6.29 reservations per outlet per week for 2021 were 0.70 (2019 was 0.63) and the revenue per outlet per week was £288k (2019 was £246k). This high sales rate was achieved despite the Dudley Shanley +353-1-641 9174 changes to Help to Buy which fell to 13% of reservations in H2 (2020 was 50%). At the end [email protected] of FY21 the orderbook stood at £1.43bn, in line with June 2020 but up from £1.3bn at the end of December 2020. Overall, homes turnover in the regional business was ahead of expectations and Redrow completed the final phase of a London PRS scheme ahead of schedule adding £43m to turnover in 2021. As a result, Group turnover is expected to be £1.94bn (£1.92bn forecast) on legal completions of 5,620 (5,722 forecast). Redrow expects an operating margin in excess of 15.5% (16% forecast) suggesting operating profits will at least be £300m versus our forecast of £307m and consensus of £284m. Looking ahead to FY22, the sales market remains robust. Despite the early completion of the London PRS scheme mentioned above, Redrow expects Group revenue to be above £2bn (£2bn forecast). It also expects the operating margin to improve to c.18% (17.5% forecast) suggesting operating profit will be c.£360m versus our forecast of £358m and consensus of £326m. Elsewhere in the statement management note that cash at the end of FY21 was £160m which is a little ahead of our £135m forecast.