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Eskom Mpumalanga Highveld Cumulative Scenario Planning Study

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Eskom Mpumalanga Highveld Cumulative Scenario Planning Study Project Done on Behalf of Eskom Holdings Limited ESKOM MPUMALANGA HIGHVELD CUMULATIVE SCENARIO PLANNING STUDY Air Pollution Compliance Assessment and Health Risk Analysis of Cumulative Operations of Current, RTS and Proposed Eskom Power Station Located within the Mpumalanga and Gauteng Provinces Report No.: APP/06/ESKOM-05 Rev 1.0 DATE: October 2006 Project Co-ordinator: Y. Scorgie Authors: Y. Scorgie R. Thomas Supporting Personnel: V. Jovic N. Krause G. Mkhatshwa (Eskom Holdings) Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd PO Box 5260 Halfway House 1685 Tel : +27 (11) 254 4929 Fax : +27 (11) 805 7010 e-mail : [email protected] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation to Tyrone Singleton, Gabi Mkhatshwa, Ebrahim Patel, Rod Hansen, Deidre Herbst, Neil Snow, John Keir, Ron Rorich, Christy Ross and Clive Turner from Eskom Holdings Limited for their assistance in obtaining the relevant data and providing support during the project. COPYRIGHT WARNING With very few exceptions, the copyright in all text and other matter (including the manner of presentation) is the exclusive property of Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd. It is a criminal offence to reproduce and/or use, without written consent, any matter, technical procedure and/or technique contained in this document. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Eskom Holdings Limits currently operates ten coal-fired power stations, in addition to which it plans to return to service three of its previously mothballed power stations and to commission a further four new coal-fired power stations in the short- to medium-term. Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Limited was appointed by Eskom to compile an air quality compliance assessment and health risk analysis study for current and future baseline operations and proposed future operations. The specific objectives of the study were as follows: • Determine the compliance of existing, return-to-service and proposed Eskom power stations with current and proposed South African and international ambient air quality limits, taking cumulative air pollutant concentrations due to other major sources into account (e.g. industry, household fuel burning, mining, vehicle exhaust emissions). • Quantify inhalation-related health risks occurring due to existing, return-to-service and proposed Eskom power stations, and compare such risks to risks predicted to arise due to other major sources. • Identify which of the existing, eligable Eskom power stations should be targeted for sulphur dioxide control measure implementation based on health risk considerations, and quantify the benefits of selected emission control scenarios in terms of improving compliance and reducing health risks. The individual and cumulative air quality impacts and health risks due to Mpumalanga and Gauteng based existing, RTS and proposed power stations are documented in this report. The impacts and risks due to Tutuka, Lethabo, Komati and Matimba power stations are also individually documented in a further four reports. TERMS OF REFERENCE The specific terms of reference of the Mpumalanga Highveld cumulative scenario planning study were as follows: • Review of adequacy of non-Eskom source and emissions data for the Mpumalanga Highveld and identification of significant information gaps and measures implementable to address such gaps. • Discussion of information gaps and measures to address gaps with Eskom personnel with a view to gaining consensus on the most efficient manner of filling critical gaps and increasing confidence in study outputs. • Update emissions inventory for the Mpumalanga Highveld airshed through improving information on source parameters and emission estimates for critical source groups. Eskom Mpumalanga Highveld Cumulative Scenario Planning Study: Air Pollution Compliance Assessment and Health Risk Analysis of Cumulative Opeations of Current, RTS and Proposed Eskom Power Station Located within the Mpumalanga and Gauteng Provinces Report No.: APP/06/ESKOM-05 Rev 1.0 Page i • Identification of emission reduction scenarios for Eskom power stations in close consultation with Eskom personnel, taking into account the age, technology and proximity of such to sensitive receptors. Obtain written agreement on source and emission data to be used in the atmospheric dispersion simulations. • Atmospheric dispersion modeling of the various emission reduction scenarios including and excluding other (non-Eskom) sources. • Compliance assessment including: - Evaluation of estimated/measured power station emissions based on local and international good practice (EC, IPPC, WB) emission limits - Evaluation of predicted ambient PM10, SO2 and NOx concentrations for various averaging periods based on local (SA, SANS) and international good practice (EC, UK, WB, WHO) air quality criteria. Magnitude, frequency, aerial extent and number of persons exposed to be quantified. • Health risk assessment, including: - Literature review and identification of most applicable dose-response functions. - Overlaying of predicted air pollution concentrations for each scenario over spatial population data and application of dose-response functions to determine the potential for health effects - Spatial representation of health impact potentials due to inhalation exposures to incremental and cumulative air pollutant concentrations (PM10, SO2, NO2) STUDY SCOPE AND EMISSION SCENARIOS CONSIDERED The study included the simulation and assessment of: • Eskom power station stack emissions including: current and future emissions of existing power stations, and estimated emissions from RTS and proposed future power stations. • Other sources, specifically fugitive dust emissions from Eskom ash dumps and open cast mining operations, household fuel burning releases, industrial emissions and vehicle tailpipe emissions. The extent and spatial location of atmospheric emissions from certain source types that contribute significantly to air pollution concentrations is certain parts, e.g. biomass burning and spontaneous combustion at collieries, could not be accurately quantified and were therefore omitted from the simulations. • Particulate, sulphur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen emissions and resultant air pollutant concentrations. Emissions of other gases which are released, including carbon monoxide, various metals and organics and greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane were not quantified. Eskom Mpumalanga Highveld Cumulative Scenario Planning Study: Air Pollution Compliance Assessment and Health Risk Analysis of Cumulative Opeations of Current, RTS and Proposed Eskom Power Station Located within the Mpumalanga and Gauteng Provinces Report No.: APP/06/ESKOM-05 Rev 1.0 Page ii A comprehensive health risk assessment comprises the quantification of actual exposure (e.g. through detailed personal monitoring and/or time-activity studies taking note of time spent indoors, outdoor, at work, in transit, etc.) and the quantification of all exposure pathways (viz. inhalation, ingestion, dermal contact). The health risk assessment undertaken as part of the current study deviated in terms of the following aspects: (a) Actual exposure was not quantified. Instead spatial population data from the 2001 census was used, with maximum exposures assumed in residential areas. (b) Only exposures due to inhalation were quantified through the application of applicable dose-response functions. This is considered acceptable given that inhalation is the predominant exposure pathway for the pollutants under investigation. The following emission scenarios were included in the cumulative compliance and health risks assessments: Eskom Sources Included: Other Sources Included: Sulphur Dioxide Controls in Place for Eskom Power Stations Current (2003) emissions None None from existing power stations Industry, open cast mining, ash None dumps, household fuel burning, vehicle exhaust Future (2009) emissions None None from existing power stations, Industry, open cast mining, ash None emissions from RTS and dumps, household fuel burning, 90% control for new stations proposed new stations vehicle exhaust 90% control for new stations and on Kendal, Lethabo, Majuba, Matla, Tutuka and Duvha 90% control on hew plants and Kendal, Lethabo and Majuba and 60% control on Matla, Duvha and Tutuka 90% control on new plants and Kendal, Lethabo and Majuba METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH Emissions inventories were established for Eskom power stations and for various other significant source types including vehicle tailpipe emissions, industrial emissions, fugitive releases from open cast mining operations and household fuel burning emissions. Atmospheric dispersion modelling was undertaken to determine ambient air pollutant concentrations occurring as a result of the estimated emissions. Dispersion models compute ambient concentrations as a function of source configurations, emission strengths and meteorological characteristics, thus providing a useful tool to ascertain the spatial and temporal patterns in the ground level concentrations arising from the emissions of various sources. The US Environmental Protection Agency approved CALPUFF modelling suite was selected for use in the current study, comprising the CALMET meteorological model, the CALPUFF dispersion model and the CALPOST result-processing module. CALPUFF is a regional Eskom Mpumalanga Highveld Cumulative Scenario Planning Study: Air Pollution Compliance Assessment and Health Risk Analysis of Cumulative Opeations of Current, RTS and Proposed Eskom
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