The Big Chill: bud dormancy and cold hardiness in Jason P. Londo Department of Agriculture: Grape Genetics Research Unit, Geneva, NY Northern Webinar 12/8/2015 • How does winter temperature influence grapevines?

• What is cold hardiness? What is dormancy?

• How do climate and genetics interact? Can we plan/breed for the future? vinifera

V. vinifera ssp. sylvestris

Adapted to a Mediterranean Climate

Cool/mild winters, warm dry summers

Varieties with greatest “hardiness” survive until ~-22/-25 °C Vitis riparia

Adapted to cold, harsh winters…

Survives temperatures until -35/-40 °C

But also cool, mild winters. Vitis aestivalis Wild Grapevine

Vitis rupestris Vitis riparia Vitis cinerea

Vitis vulpina Vitis amurensis – East Asia

California and the West Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

http://chesapeakeclimate.org/ blog/study-va-md-vineyards- dead-by-2050/

Europe

http://wineeconomist.com/category/climate-change/ Warmer Winters

Changes in Temperature Patterns

Changes in Precipitation Patterns Polar Vortex!!

Natural Occurrence, but more frequent

NOAA www.news.discovery.com Environmental stress physiology and genetics

• Tissue differences; bud, phloem, , cambium • Genetic, physiological and mechanical defenses • Impacts early, mid, and late season.

Dormancy

Fall Winter Spring Budburst Cold extremes Frost Frost

www.extension.org Dormancy

Growth and Bud Development Auxin, Cytokinin, Goffinet 2004 Giberrelin Paradormancy Hormonal

Photoperiod changes cold

Goffinet 2004 Molecular- Endodormancy Metabolic

??? Goffinet 2004 Ecodormancy Environmental Warmth Growing Degree Days Growth resumes Acclimation, Dormancy, Midwinter Bud Hardiness, and Deacclimation

Endodormancy Ecodormancy

Maximum Hardiness Acclimation Deacclimation Lethal Temperature Lethal Midwinter freezing, the difference between non-lethal and lethal freezing

Goffinet 2004

http://ilc.royalsaskmuseum.ca/ilc1/pages/12c /13f/pf13fp2p1.htm Ice which forms between cells is not typically lethal ~-5 °C

If temperatures continue to drop, ice may form inside the cell, or damage from dehydration becomes irreversible Midwinter freezing, the difference between non-lethal and lethal freezing

Goffinet 2004

http://ilc.royalsaskmuseum.ca/ilc1/pages/12c /13f/pf13fp2p1.htm

Mills et al 2006 Midwinter freezing, the difference between non-lethal and lethal freezing

LT50 = -21 C°

Lethal Freezing Non-Lethal Freezing

Temperature Mills et al 2006 Winters are not created equal. 2012-2013 Mild/Cool Winter No Freeze Damage

2013-2014 Cold Punctuated Winter Extensive Damage

2014-2015 Cold Sustained Winter Patchy Damage Species are also, not created equal. Average LT50 Mid December-February

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 aestivalis -24.96 -26.02 -25.63 amurensis -23.05 -27.97 -27.81 cinerea -26.00 -25.74 -25.89 hybrid -25.04 -25.55 -25.99 Different species have labrusca -24.71 -26.81 -26.50 different ability riparia -25.42 -28.91 -28.72 rupestris -25.58 -27.63 -26.95 vulpina -24.79 -26.12 -26.17

Winter conditions change how “hardy” any variety can be Species are also, not created equal. Average LT50 Mid December-February

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 aestivalis -24.96 -26.02 -25.63 amurensis -23.05 -27.97 -27.81 cinerea -26.00 -25.74 -25.89 hybrid -25.04 -25.55 -25.99 labrusca -24.71 -26.81 -26.50 riparia -25.42 -28.91 -28.72 rupestris -25.58 -27.63 -26.95 vulpina -24.79 -26.12 -26.17 Tracking Bud Survival

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 7-Nov 7-Dec 6-Jan 5-Feb 7-Mar 6-Apr 12-Nov 12-Dec 11-Jan 10-Feb 12-Mar 11-Apr 12-Nov 12-Dec 11-Jan 10-Feb 12-Mar 15.00 15.00 15.00

10.00 10.00 10.00

5.00 5.00 5.00

° 0.00 0.00 0.00

-5.00 -5.00 -5.00

-10.00 -10.00 -10.00

-15.00 -15.00 -15.00

-20.00 -20.00 -20.00

Temperature C Temperature -25.00 -25.00 -25.00

-30.00 -30.00 -30.00

-35.00 -35.00 -35.00

• The type of winter determines the extent of bud cold hardiness Vitis riparia Vitis amurensis Vitis hybrid Tracking Bud Survival

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 7-Nov 7-Dec 6-Jan 5-Feb 7-Mar 6-Apr 12-Nov 12-Dec 11-Jan 10-Feb 12-Mar 11-Apr 12-Nov 12-Dec 11-Jan 10-Feb 12-Mar 15.00 15.00 15.00

10.00 10.00 10.00

5.00 5.00 5.00

° 0.00 0.00 0.00

-5.00 -5.00 -5.00

-10.00 -10.00 -10.00

-15.00 -15.00 -15.00

-20.00 -20.00 -20.00

Temperature C Temperature -25.00 -25.00 -25.00

-30.00 -30.00 -30.00

-35.00 -35.00 -35.00

• The type of winter determines the extent of bud cold hardiness Vitis riparia Vitis amurensis • Buds do not gain maximum hardiness unless the winter conditions are severe. Vitis hybrid • Assessing bud cold hardiness using LTE is location AND year dependent. Cold hardiness variation in V. riparia

2013-2014 2014-2015

23-Oct 22-Nov 22-Dec 21-Jan 20-Feb 22-Mar 21-Apr 18-Oct 17-Nov 17-Dec 16-Jan 15-Feb 17-Mar 16-Apr 20 20 • 43 different genotypes of

10 10 V. riparia

° 0 0 • Over 10°C range of variation at any point in -10 -10 the winter

-20 -20 Temperature C Temperature • Varieties of both Northern

-30 -30 and Southern riparia are very winter hardy (in NY)

-40 -40

Varieties ≤ -32°C ; Montreal, Montana, Varieties ≤ -32°C ; , , Ontario, Ontario, Illinois Minnesota, , Illinois, Kansas, , Iowa, Breaking Dormancy

• Buds require a specific number of hours of cool (not cold) temperatures = Chilling Hours

• Once enough chilling hours have occurred, buds are ready to grow, but require heat to do so = Heating Hours

• Different species and different cultivars have different Chilling Hours, and different Heating hours Chilling hours • Buds measure length of winter Cold winters, mostly below 0 C° • Start tracking temperature below ~7 C° Low chilling hours • Stop tracking temperature below freezing.

Cool winters moderated by the Great Lakes and Atlantic Ocean High chilling hours

Variable winters Fluctuating chilling hours

Brent Wilson, www.gardenality.com 2012-2013 Chilling hours are different based on 1800 1600 geography, due to climate differences 1400 1200 New York Chilling hours accumulate between 0-7 °C 1000 800 600 Temperatures above 7 °C may “rewind” the clock South Dakota

Chilling Hours 400 200 Temperatures below 0 °C are essentially 0 “invisible” and the clock does not advance -200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

2013-2014 1800 1600 1400 Missouri 1200 1000 New York 800 600 400

Chilling Hours South Dakota 200 0 -200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May 2012-2013 1800 Chilling hours are different based on 1600 Missouri geography, due to climate differences 1400 1200 New York NY 1300 1000 SD 900 800 South Dakota MO 1500 600 400 Warm/Mild Winter 200 Higher Chilling Hours 0 -200 Winter warming will tend to increase 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May chilling hours in northern growing regions

2013-2014 1800 1600 1400 Missouri NY 1100 1200 SD 800 1000 New York MO 1200 800 600 South Dakota Cold Winter 400 Lower Chilling Hours 200 0 -200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May Why would a mild vs. cold winter matter? Chilling Hours in Geneva NY

Mild/Cool Winter Utah Chilling Hours Oct 1-Apr 30 1800 1600 1400 Cold 1200 Punctuated 1000 Winter 800 600 400 200 Cold Sustained 0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Winter -200 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Chilling Hours in Geneva NY

Warm/Mild Winters are dangerous as Early Budburst 2012 Utah Chilling Hours Oct 1-Apr 30 are “super-chilled” and will Followed by frost event 1800 burst early/faster in spring. 1600 1400 1200 Late Budburst 1000 2013/2014 No major frost 800 event 600 400 200 0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 -200 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Chilling hours = 750 Chilling hours Riesling = Synchronous

50% Budburst at 4 wks

Cabernet Sauvignon = Not Synchronous Chilling hours = 750 Chilling hours Riesling = Synchronous

50% Budburst at 4 wks

Increased chilling hours results in super-optimal chilling of vines, tighter flowering time, but more rapid spring budburst. Cabernet Sauvignon = Not Synchronous Conserved response to chilling in wild grape

All species need chilling to synchronize budburst

Different species (genotypes) have different chilling Southern requirements.

High chill-Slow We can select specific germplasm to breed for these different traits Moderate

Northern Low chill-Rapid

Chilling Hours Conserved response to chilling in wild grape

All species need chilling to synchronize budburst

Different species (genotypes) have different chilling Southern requirements.

We can select specific germplasm to breed for these different traits

It is possible to “over-chill” or provide “super-optimal chilling”. Northern This makes buds more synchronous and break bud faster.

Chilling Hours Variation in response to chilling and 60 super-optimal chilling within 43 wild grape genotypes of V. riparia 50

If wild riparia is used in breeding 40 programs for cold hardy Hybrid grapes, it may be beneficial to select Southern southern material to avoid 30 inadvertently breeding for rapid budburst 20

Days needed for Budburst needed for Days Northern

Another alternative may be to breed 10 with non-riparia species, but hardiness needs to be tested in Northern Plains 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Hours of chilling at 4 C° What does this mean for grape production and for new cultivars?

2012-2013 1800 Chilling hours determines budburst 1600 synchronicity, and budburst speed

1400

1200

1000 Need to use low chill varieties for the

800 Northern growing regions for budburst and synchronous flowering. 600

400

200 However, these varieties are also the most at risk of super-optimal chilling and frost, 0 particularly in the Midwest and Northeast. -200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

Missouri New York South Dakota What does this mean for grape production and for new cultivars?

2012-2013 1800

1600

1400 Chilling Hour Requirements Missouri/New York

1200 Cabernet Sauvignon Synchronized

1000 Concord Synchronized and over-chilled

800 Cabernet Franc, Riesling Synchronized and over-chilled 600 Marechel Foch Synchronized and over-chilled 400

200

0

-200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

Missouri New York South Dakota What does this mean for grape production and for new cultivars?

2012-2013 1800

1600

1400 Chilling Hour Requirements South Dakota

1200 Cabernet Sauvignon Desynchronized

1000 Concord Synchronized if late spring

800 Cabernet Franc, Riesling Synchronized 600 Marechel Foch Synchronized and over-chilled 400

200

0

-200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

Missouri New York South Dakota What does this mean for grape production and for new cultivars? V. riparia based hybrids are likely to also be at risk to spring frost due to low chill phenotypes. 2012-2013 1800 ? ? St. Croix? Others? 1600

1400

1200 Cabernet Sauvignon

1000 Concord Vitis riparia chilling 800 Cabernet Franc, Riesling 600 Marechel Foch 400

200

0

-200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

Missouri New York South Dakota What does this mean for grape production and for new cultivars? However, lots of variation in chilling hours if you use additional wild species in breeding programs. 2012-2013 1800 Breeding for a warmer, but less stable, future…. Range of wild Vitis chilling 1600

1400

1200 Cabernet Sauvignon

1000 Concord Vitis riparia chilling 800 Cabernet Franc, Riesling 600 Marechel Foch 400

200

0

-200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

Missouri New York South Dakota Projected effect of 2 °C increase in hourly temperature on Chilling hours in New York and South Dakota Projected minimum temperature increase by 2070

2000

1800

1600 New York

1400

1200

1000 South Dakota

800

600

400 http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/modelcombo.htm

200

0

-200 1-Oct 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr Projected effect of 2 °C increase in hourly temperature on Chilling hours in New York and South Dakota

2000

1800

1600 New York

1400

1200

1000 South Dakota

800

600

400

200

0

-200 1-Oct 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr Projected effect of 2 °C increase in hourly temperature on Chilling hours in New York and South Dakota

2000 New York + 2 °C 1800 New York has delayed chilling in Fall,

1600 but increased chilling by spring

1400

1200 South Dakota + 2 °C

1000 South Dakota has little effect in Fall, but increased chilling by spring 800

600

400

200

0

-200 1-Oct 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr Projected effect of 2 °C increase in hourly temperature on Chilling hours in New York and South Dakota

2000 New York + 2 °C 1800 407.5 hours more

1600

1400

1200 South Dakota + 2 °C 249 hours more 1000

800

600

400 For every 100 hours of chilling, can 200 predict an increased budburst rate of ~1.3 0 days, or 31 hours.

-200 1-Oct 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr Projected effect of 2 °C increase in hourly temperature on Chilling hours in New York and South Dakota

2000 New York + 2 °C 1800 average of 5.17 days faster

1600

1400

1200 South Dakota + 2 °C average of 3.2 days faster 1000

800

600

400 For every 100 hours of chilling, can 200 predict an increased budburst rate of ~1.3

0 days, or 31 hours.

-200 1-Oct 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr Predicted Warm 2015-2016 Winter Looking Ahead…. Conclusions

• Winter extremes are more likely to happen with a warmer pole and weakened trade wind system, so bud hardiness must be retained for acute cold. Not foolproof

• Warmer winters may over-chill grapevines in Northern growing regions, increasing risk for frost event damage.

http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/hortnews/2012/4-18/grapes.html Conclusions

• Acclimation, midwinter hardiness, dormancy, and budburst are complex phenotypes in grape and differences are driven by both genetics, and geography/climate.

• Need to select for both midwinter survival, and Endodormancy Ecodormancy chilling hour phenotypes based on climate. Conclusions

• Maximal hardiness is determined by the type of winter

• This means damage from severe midwinter cold events are very difficult to prevent.

• Cultivar choice helps, but is not possible to prevent all damage. All wild species have potential in breeding. Conclusions

• Chilling hours and dormancy level along with spring temperatures determines frost risk. This risk is different based on geography.

2012-2013 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 18-Sep 7-Nov 27-Dec 15-Feb 6-Apr 26-May

Missouri New York South Dakota Conclusions • Climate change is projected to result in warmer, northern winters. This will increase chilling hour accumulation, leading to super-optimal chilling of all varieties.

• Hybrid varieties with low chill pedigrees may be at higher risk to frost damage due to the combination of genetics and climate changes.

2000 1800 1600 V. riparia and V. amurensis based hybrids at highest risk, but must 1400 1200 be evaluated at multiple locations 1000 800 600 Breeding programs shouldn’t be afraid of trying southern species. 400 200 0 -200 1-Oct 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr

2012-2013 NY 2012-2013 Warm NY 2012-2013 SD 2012-2013 Warm SD Questions?

USDA Cornell

Kathleen Deys Alisson Kovaleski Jacquelyn Lillis Bruce Reisch Nancy Consolie Bill Wilsey Bill Srmack Tim Martinson John Keeton Chrislyn Particka Bob Martens Beth Takacs Greg Noden Steve Luce Lynn Johnson

Anne Fennell - SDSU Michela Centinari – Penn State