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Vjc Coverage- Hold VJC COVERAGE - HOLD Tuesday, August 01, 2017 ACBS Research Department www.acbs.com.vn 1 Tel: (+84) (28) 3823 4159 (ext: 354) Bloomberg: ACBS <GO> VJC Coverage - HOLD 1-Aug-17 Ms. Gigi Nguyen Binh Vietjet Aviation JSC (VJC VN) (+84 28) 3823 4159 - Ext: 250 [email protected] A tougher environment Company Update Vietjet is a privately-owned LCC, holding the 2nd position in the Vietnamese duopoly aviation market with 41.5% market share as of 2016. The company has 45 aircrafts as Recommendation HOLD of 2Q17 and plans to expand its fleet to 78 aircrafts by 2019. New routings will be HOSE: VJC added along with Vietjet’s fleet expansion and Vietnam’s new airports infrastructure. Transportation infrastructure The tourism industry is still growing in Vietnam and the country is ranked amongst the Current price (VND) 125,000 top 5 fastest growing aviation markets in terms of new air traffic with an expected Target price (VND) 137,700 12.3% YoY growth in passengers travelling by air for 2017. However, Vietjet currently Expected share price return 10.2% operates 38 domestic routes out of Vietnam total 41 routings. Thus we expect the Expected dividend yield 2.4% potential growth for the domestic market is limited and forecast a single digit revenue Expected total return 12.6% growth for that segment. The real growth of VJC would come from the international market. The company Stock performance (%) currently has 35 international routings as of 6M17 with 21 new routes added since the YTD 1M 3M 12M beginning of the year. We estimate that segment to generate a strong triple digit Absolute N.A. 0.1 -0.2 N.A. revenue growth of 270.3% YoY for 2017 and another 40.5% YoY in 2018. Relative N.A. -1.2 -10.5 N.A. Our estimate VJC RASK of USc3.7 and USc1.6 for the domestic and international Source: Bloomberg market respectively are the lowest amongst regional LCCs. This would give VJC plenty potential to grow. VJC also has a load factor of 88.2%, higher than its avg. peer. VND '000 '000 Price-Volume shares 160 3,000 Competition is getting intense with a new entrant AirAsia – the biggest LCC of 140 2,500 Malaysia. The first domestic flight within AirAsia Vietnam is expected for 2018. 120 Another local new entrant Vietstar is waiting for business licence. 100 2,000 The advantageous trend of jet fuel prices over the last 2 years with a record low in 80 1,500 Thousands Feb-2016 has boosted Vietjet’s profitability. A bounce back in jet fuel price is expected 60 1,000 40 as OPEC members agreed to reduce crude oil outputs. As fuel accounts for 25-30% of 20 500 VJC’s COGS, the company’s profitability will be hurt by an increase in jet fuel price. Our 0 0 calculation suggests VJC fuel efficiency to be 5.55 liters/100ASK, much higher than 02/17 04/17 06/17 the avg. peer of 2.43 liters/100ASK. The company need to have a better cost management in order to boost efficiency and profitability. VJC’s 2016 ROE and ROA of 72.6% and 15.5% are much higher than the avg. peer Ownership while company’s 2016 D/E of 85.7% is lower than its peers. Our DCF valuation derives Sunflower Sunny. Ltd. 28.57% a target price of VND137,700/sh for VJC, implying a 12.6% TSR including 2.4% Ms. Nguyen Thi Phuong 8.76% Thao (Vice-Chairwoman) dividend yield. Our cross-check valuation with a target P/E of 13.2x 2017 EPS of GIC 5.10% VND10,452/sh derive a fair value of VND137,965/sh, further reconfirms our DCF valuation. HOLD Stock Statistics 01-Aug-17 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Bloomberg code VJC VN Net Sales (VNDbn) 8,706.3 19,845.5 27,499.3 36,568.2 42,440.6 Growth (%) 129.7 127.9 38.6 33.0 16.1 108,000 – 52-week range (VND) 138,000 EBITDA ( VNDbn ) 592.0 1,610.7 3,258.0 4,237.0 4,928.8 Growth (%) 699.3 172.0 102.3 30.0 16.3 Shares O/S (m) 322.4 Net Profit ( VNDbn ) 360.4 1,170.3 2,495.6 3,172.0 3,560.1 Mkt cap (VND bn) 39,976 Growth (%) 1,020.0 224.7 113.3 27.1 12.2 Mkt cap (USD m) 1,756 EPS (bonus-adjusted, VND) 3,604 5,893 9,586 10,452 11,041 Foreign room left (%) 24.0 Growth (%) 695.3 63.5 62.7 9.0 5.6 Est. free float (m) 60.9 ROE (%) 45.9 75.2 72.6 46.7 35.1 ROIC (%) 13.8 28.3 31.4 28.2 27.3 3m avg daily vol (shrs) 335,718 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 3.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.7 VND/USD 22,725 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.5 17.6 10.9 9.4 8.8 Index: VNIndex / HNX 783.55/101.18 PER (x) 34.7 21.2 13.0 12.0 11.3 PBR (x) 10.4 8.4 7.9 4.6 3.5 DPS (VND) - - 1,000 3,000 3,000 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.4 ACBS Research Department www.acbs.com.vn 2 Tel: (+84) (28) 3823 4159 (ext: 354) Bloomberg: ACBS <GO> VJC Coverage - HOLD 1-Aug-17 Vietnam aviation market An duopolistic market The Vietnam aviation market is shared by 4 air carriers: Vietnam Airlines (HVN), Vietjet (VJC), Jetstar Pacific and Vasco. However, the market is somewhat of a duopoly with 2 players Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet holding 84.0% market share while Jetstar Pacific and Vasco are owned 70% and 100% by Vietnam Airlines. Vietnam aviation market share 14.2% 1.8% 41.5% Vietjet Vietnam Airline Jetstar Pacific VASCO 42.5% Source: CAAV Among the 5 fastest growing market With an expected GDP growth of 6.5% p.a. and a young population increasingly willing to travel, airlines in Vietnam are expected to be one of the fastest growing markets in South East Asia over the next 5 years. The increase of Vietnam’s middle-class and increasing discretionary income will drive the intra-Asian tourism flow. In addition to that, the airline industry is particularly important for Vietnam due to the length of the country. Data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) shows that travel spending in Vietnam reached VND356,088.8bn in 2016, a 5yr-CAGR of 7.7%. The WTTC also estimates total travel spending to grow by 7.4% YoY to reach VND382,578.0bn by 2017. By 2027, travel spending would reach VND682,620bn, growing by an avg. of 5.9% p.a. over the next decade. ACBS Research Department www.acbs.com.vn 3 Tel: (+84) (28) 3823 4159 (ext: 354) Bloomberg: ACBS <GO> VJC Coverage - HOLD 1-Aug-17 VND bn Travel spending in Vietnam 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - domestic travel spending (VND bn) international travel spending (VND bn) Source: World Travel & Tourism Council According to the Civil Aviation Administration of Vietnam (CAA), Vietnam’s annual air passenger traffic grew by a 5yr CAGR of 16.7% to reach 81mn in 2016, from which 57mn are domestic passengers. The Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) estimates up to 91mn passengers to travel by air in Vietnam by 2017 (+12.3% YoY), from which 70.3% will be domestic passengers (64mn). mn passenger Air traffic in Vietnam 100 91 90 81.0 80 70 63.1 60 50.8 50 44.3 37.4 35.7 40 31.4 30 20 10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: CAA, ACV In a press release in Oct 2016, The International Air Transport Association (IATA) ranked Vietnam the fifth fastest growing market in term of additional passengers per year over the next 20 years, adding 112mn new passengers to reach a total of 150mn by 2035. Vietnam is ranked behind China, the US, India and Indonesia. ACBS Research Department www.acbs.com.vn 4 Tel: (+84) (28) 3823 4159 (ext: 354) Bloomberg: ACBS <GO> VJC Coverage - HOLD 1-Aug-17 5 fastest growing aviation markets New passengers Total passengers by 2035 (mn) Country 2015-2035 period (mn) China 817 1,300 US 484 1,100 India 322 442 Indonesia 135 242 Vietnam 112 150 Source: IATA Data from IATA differs from numbers reported by the CAAV as it suggests Vietnam to have 38mn passengers travelling by air in 2015 while the CAAV reported 63.1mn in the same year. We note that the GSO (General Statistics Office) of Vietnam reported 31.1mn passengers in 2015. Fleet expansion to meet the increasing demand Vietnam has operated 150 aircrafts as of end 2016 (+10% YoY). The country total fleet would reach 218 aircrafts by 2020 according to airfleet on order and delivery schedule of the 4 players. Vietnam aviation fleet Current Additional aircrafts on Average age (years) Company fleet order Vietnam Airlines 97 6.2 33 Vietjet 45 3.1 193 Jetstar Pacific 14 6.2 10 Vasco 5 7.7 - Source: Vietnam Airlines, Vietjet, CAPA The national flag carrier Vietnam Airlines dominates the market with 42.5% share. The company operates 58 owned aircrafts and 39 leased aircrafts and plans to increase its fleet to 150 aircrafts by 2020.
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