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An Example for Advanced Model Calibration Using Pilot Points

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An Example for Advanced Model Calibration Using Pilot Points Environmental Modelling & Software 66 (2015) 78e86 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Environmental Modelling & Software journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsoft Tutorials as a flexible alternative to GUIs: An example for advanced model calibration using Pilot Points * Christian Moeck , Daniel Hunkeler, Philip Brunner Centre of Hydrogeology and Geothermics (CHYN), University of Neuchatel,^ 2000 Neuchatel,^ Switzerland article info abstract Article history: Environmental modelling software with graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are user friendly and help to Received 17 November 2014 focus on the aspects of modelling rather than on the technicality of the underlying code. This is a Received in revised form fundamental advantage compared to codes without a GUI, as the absence of a GUI can prohibit the 18 December 2014 widespread application of a software tool. However, there is a downside to GUIs, too. They commonly lag Accepted 21 December 2014 behind the newest software development. We argue that tutorials are a flexible but undervalued Available online 21 January 2015 alternative to GUIs, and are convinced that tutorials can help to make complex software accessible to an increased number of users. As an example to demonstrate our point, we have written a tutorial that Keywords: GUI illustrates the use of Pilot-Point based calibration made available through PEST in the HydroGeoSphere Tutorial modelling environment. We hope that this example will encourage the modelling community to develop Model calibration tutorials and make them available to the wider public. Pilot Points © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. HydroGeoSphere 1. Introduction software PEST (Doherty, 2010), that provides a large amount of calibration tools, including Pilot Points calibration. A range of hy- Many environmental modelling software packages such as drological models with a GUI (e.g. MODFLOW (Harbaugh, 2005), FEFLOW (Diersch, 2005), GMS or Visual Modflow (Guiguer and MT3DMS (Zheng, 1990), SEAWAT (Langevin et al., 2008), FEFLOW Franz, 1996) are equipped with graphical user interfaces (GUIs). (Diersch, 2005), MicroFEM (Hemker and de Boer, 2009) and RSM GUIs provide a user-friendly environment that helps to focus on the (South Florida Water Management District, 2005)) provide an aspects of modelling rather than on the technicality of the under- interface to make easy use of PEST capabilities within the modelling lying code (Seibert and Vis, 2012). For example, FEFLOW provides environment. Pilot Points calibration through PEST has been used all required functions to elaborate and post-process an entire, with all of these codes (e.g. Dausman et al., 2010, Doherty, 2003, georeferenced flow and transport model within a GUI. In principal, Wiese and Nutzmann, 2011). Other hydrological models such as no additional software such as text-editors or GIS packages for the PARFLOW (Ashby and Falgout, 1996), InHM (VanderKwaak and manipulation of spatial data are required in the process (Trefry and Loague, 2001), OpenGeoSys (Kolditz et al., 2012) or HydroGeo- Muffels, 2007). On the other hand, the absence of a GUI leaves it to Sphere (Therrien et al., 2010) do not have a GUI or do not support the user to resolve all the technical challenges related to running PEST or Pilot Points calibration in a GUI environment. The absence of the software. a GUI seems to preclude the application of the Pilot Points options Given the user-friendliness of models equipped with a GUI, available in PEST. In fact, we are not aware of a single published Pilot software without a GUI are in a strategic disadvantage, independent Points approach through PEST for a model without the GUI-support of their capabilities or level of sophistication. In fact, the absence of a for these functionalities. This example is in line with Yamamoto GUI might even prevent the wide-spread application of a code. A (2008) who states that software without GUIs limit and hurdle good illustrative example is the model independent calibration users to run sophisticated numerical simulation or calibration ap- proaches. Despite all advantages of GUIs, however, there are draw- backs. For example, the capabilities of GUIs often lag behind the software development of the underlying code. Also, GUIs often do * Corresponding author. Present address: Department of Water Resources and not provide an interface to all the available capabilities. Moreover, Drinking Water, Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland. GUIs are a potential source of bugs and invite inexperienced mod- E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Moeck). ellers to run simulations without having a clear understanding of http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.018 1364-8152/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. C. Moeck et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 66 (2015) 78e86 79 the underlying model concept. In addition, compatibly problems Sudicky and Huyakorn, 1991; Sudicky et al., 2010; Zheng and might occur if the operating system of the computer is changed or Gorelick, 2003). Virtually every hydrogeological investigation re- updated. Finally, the development of a GUI is expensive. quires estimates of hydraulic conductivity (Butler, 2005). However, A flexible alternative to GUIs are tutorials. Tutorials guide be- heterogeneity can typically not be investigated in all details. ginners on their first steps on model use (Heistermann et al., 2013) Nevertheless, model parameters must be provided to the employed and are part of a learning process. Compared to a GUI, tutorials are models and therefore, calibration is required. far less time-consuming to develop and can be rapidly adapted to During model calibration, parameters are adjusted until the changes and extensions of the software. However, despite the ad- model output fits historical field measurements (Moore and vantages, only a relatively small number of tutorials has been Doherty, 2006; 2005). The classical calibration approach is based published. For instance, Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rojas (2013) pro- on the principle of parsimony. It consists of subdividing the model vide a model-independent R (R Development Core Team, 2011) domain into zones of piecewise constancy of the hydraulic prop- package (hydroPSO) used for model calibration. For the package erties that are then calibrated. The strengths and weaknesses of this hydromad (Andrews et al., 2011), a modelling framework for water approach have been described by Hill and Tiedeman (2006) and are balance accounting and flow routing in spatially aggregated subject to an ongoing debate in the scientific community (Doherty, catchments, a tutorial as well as a web page are provided describing 2010, 2009, Doherty and Hunt, 2009; Hill, 2010). Pilot Points are an theory and model use (http://hydromad.catchment.org/). Kaser€ alternative to the zonation approach. Pilot Points introduce great et al. (2014) provided tutorials for the interpolation of channel flexibility to calibrate heterogeneous systems without neglecting cross-sectional data and the refinement of a mesh along a stream in expert knowledge (Doherty, 2003). Renard (2007) provided a brief areas of high topographic variability. history of Pilot Points methods, which was proposed first by de Despite these examples we believe that the value of tutorials is Marsily (1978). The method was further developed by de Marsily underestimated in the environmental modelling community. How- et al. (1984), Lavenue, et al. (1995) and Ramarao et al. (1995) and ever, tutorials have the potential to bring non-supported software has been implemented into the automatic parameter estimation without a GUI environment easily accesable to the wider community. software PEST (Doherty, 2010). To demonstrate our point, we have written a tutorial that illustrates Pilot Points have been combined with various numerical models the use of Pilot-Point based calibration made available through PEST of different conceptual complexity to simulate a wide range of in the HydroGeoSphere (HGS) modelling environment. Linking the environmental problems. For instance, Dausman et al. (2010) used Pilot Points method with HGS is especially important because HGS is SEAWAT (Langevin and Guo, 2006) to simulate the effect of variable a powerful state of the art tool used to reproduce many environ- density flow and transport and developed an optimization mental processes. As stated by Brunner and Simmons (2012), the approach for efficient data acquisition. MODFLOW (Harbaugh, model has been applied to a wide range of hydrological subjects such 2005) was used for an investigation of the potential error in pre- as groundwater e surface water interaction (Irvine et al., 2012; dictions made by highly parameterized models calibrated using Partington et al., 2012, 2013; Bartsch et al., 2014), flow in fractured regularized inversion (Tonkin et al., 2007). Herckenrath et al. (2011) rocks (Vujevic and Graf, 2012; Graf and Therrien, 2008), ground- used a “Null-Space-Monte-Carlo” approach to quantify predictive water response to climate change (Goderniaux et al., 2011, 2009) and uncertainty for a saltwater intrusion problem. The impact of Pilot hydrological processes at catchment scale (Li et al., 2008; Sciuto and Points positions on inversions results was investigated by Kowalsky Diekkrueger, 2010). Representation of spatial heterogeneity is highly et al. (2012) and the importance of intraborehole flow in solute important for all of the above mentioned application of HGS. Pilot transport
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