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The Power-Balance Collapse in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Causes and Scenarios Going Forward

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The Power-Balance Collapse in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Causes and Scenarios Going Forward The Power-Balance Collapse in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Causes and Scenarios Going Forward 1 From the publication series of KCCRC 28 Kurdistan conflict and Crisis Research Center The Power-Balance Collapse in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Causes and Scenarios Going Forward Researcher at KCCRC From the publication series of KCCRC 28 2 Kurdistan conflict and Crisis Research Center All Rights Reserved for: Kurdistan Conflict and Crisis Research Center www.kurdistanc.com [email protected] facebook.com/kurdistanccrc 053 - 318 2929 @KCCRC1 September 2020 3 The Power-Balance Collapse in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Causes and Scenarios Going Forward Farhad Hassan Abdullah has not been able to achieve any significant advancements for the Abstract Kurds in spite of their nationalist The consequences of the Kurdistan projects (such as the independence Regional Government parliamentary referendum), something the majority election that took place on the in society fundamentally criticise. 30th September 2018 created an Furthermore, it is argued that if imbalance of power in the Kurdistan a genuinely democratic election Region of Iraq to an extent that even is held, then Iraqi Kurdistan’s the party with the most votes in the dominant political parties (especially election (the Kurdistan Democratic the Kurdistan Democratic Party) Party) cannot form a government will find themselves as minorities in alone or in a coalition with smaller any future parliament. It is for this parties. Nevertheless, the Kurdistan reason that this article will look into Democratic Party has been able the question, what are the causes of to save face by pushing forward a the Power-Balance collapse in the political and party discourse that Kurdistan Region of Iraq? Also, argues that the results of the elections what impact will the new power and the imbalance of power that it arrangement have on the future of presented are a natural democratic the Iraqi Kurdish political process? occurrence that demonstrates the democratic development and awareness of Kurdish society. The Introduction party also argues that the result In the first Iraqi Kurdish is, in fact, a reward for them as it parliamentary election in 1992, the reflects the success of the Kurdistan Kurdistan Democratic Party and Democratic Party’s history in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan struggling for the democratisation divided the seats in the Kurdish and freedom of Kurdistan. However, parliaments between themselves in neither of the arguments put forward a 50%: 50% division (1). Sixteen by the Kurdistan Democratic Party years later, in the fifth Kurdish can be accepted as the cause of this parliamentary election of 2018 (2), new political reality in Kurdistan the Kurdistan Democratic Party as the Kurdistan Democratic Party 4 has become the biggest party in the role of its leading party the the Kurdish parliament; however, Kurdistan Democratic Party, which it must be noted that this is with is responsible for Kurdistan’s failure 45 seats, a loss of five seats since of administration and governance 1992. In contrast, the Patriotic and the wasting of Kurdistan’s Union of Kurdistan has lost 21 seats independence referendum since 1992. It is important to note negotiating pressure card against the that in parliamentary democracies administration in Baghdad, would political party influence and almost certainly have returned a strength is subject to change on a devastating electoral result for the regular basis. In those democratic Kurdistan Democratic Party and systems that are recognised as two- would have seen other parties in party political systems it is noted the Kurdistan Region takeover its that different factors affect the governance. However, what was parliamentary status of the political noteworthy in the 2018 Kurdish parties. For example, in the United poll was that the results gave the Kingdom and the United States, Kurdistan Democratic Party 45 seats the two leading parties in each in the Kurdish parliament. Many have dominated their respective observers argued that the result governance for decades and seemed to be pre-arranged as the even centuries, with each parties head of the Kurdistan Democratic influence and status in constant Party faction in the Kurdistan flux. To explain this another way, Parliament, Hemin Hawrami, it has never been witnessed in before the election explained that neither of these democracies (or the Kurdistan Democratic Party any similar democracy) that after expected 45 seats or more from the a government’s primary policy poll. In his personal social media fails then that governing party is page, the leader stated “three days rewarded with re-election. In the before the election we forecasted United States, after the Afghanistan that the Kurdistan Democratic and Iraq Wars of the early 2000s, Party would win 45 seats in the the Republican party faced electoral election, and the election allowed defeat after its program of borrowing us to achieve this”(4). While it to fund those conflicts compounded is standard practice and highly the severity of the global banking rational for political parties to collapse of 2008 for the United estimate their expected vote share States (3). Therefore, a fair and before an election, the results of transparent democratic election such estimation are dependent that evaluated the Kurdistan upon the political parties conduct Regional Government’s conduct in in the previous government and the the previous four years, especially extent to which they party fulfilled 5 its original election promises. the Iraqi Federal Government which Therefore, it is right to question required close cooperation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s the Kurdish parties and the division conduct in government since 2014, of Iraqi Federal Government posts and how many of its election between the two primary Kurdish promises it has fulfilled. Other parties (Kurdistan Democratic than its political and administrative Party and the Patriotic Union of failure, the party has also failed in Kurdistan), who at that point were its national project to reunite the legitimately the representatives of Iraqi Kurdish territories as the the Kurdish people in Baghdad. Kurdish government lost control of Their legitimacy to represent the the majority of the Iraqi disputed Kurdish people was reaffirmed in territories to the Iraqi state due to the first Iraqi elections after the its ill-informed decision to hold the collapse of Saddam Hussain, which Kurdish independence referendum. saw Jalal Talabani, the then head Hence, it is clear that the election of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan process in the Kurdistan Region is become the President of Iraq and the not a clean and fair process. The leader of the Kurdistan Democratic achievement of 45 seats (and 11 Party Massoud Barzan become the quota seats) by a political party that President of Iraqi Kurdistan. This is responsible for the majority of was followed in 2007 with a strategic the failures in the governance of the agreement between both parties to Kurdistan Region of Iraq is highly divide the political and governance questionable and puts the entire posts in Iraqi Kurdistan between democratic process in the Kurdistan themselves equally (5). Region into question. After Jalal Talabani became President of Iraq, he focused on solving the internal problems of Iraq, The end of one-sided politics in the the Shia-Sunni rivalry in the country Iraqi Kurdistan: causes and the ongoing issues between Erbil and Baghdad. At the same The emergence of one-sided politics time, the Kurdistan Democratic in Iraqi Kurdistan can, for the most Party and in particular Massoud part, be traced back to the 2003 and Barzani strengthened its hold on the liberation of Iraq from the Iraqi the offices of the government of the Ba’athist government. Following Kurdistan Region of Iraq. What is the liberation, the Kurdish political more, during this period, as a result parties came together to form of the absence of its leader Jalal a united administration in the Talabani, the Patriotic of Kurdistan Kurdistan Region of Iraq. This was descended into strong infighting and followed by Kurdish participation in a perpetual state of internal rivalries. 6 The problems within the Patriotic that pushed for the formation of Union of Kurdistan came to a head a preferred constitutional political in 2009 when its former deputy system and a specific manner in leader Nawshirwan Mustafa Amin the division of Iraqi finances and left the party to form his own rival centralised power. It was this political party called Gorran, taking backdrop that paved the way for a large number of PUK leaders and the strategic political agreement members with him. Gorran enjoyed between the two parties that divided active political status in the Kurdish the political posts in Erbil and political system until the 2018 Baghdad equally between them. Kurdish parliamentary elections The deal saw the Patriotic Union (6). The causes of this collapse in of Kurdistan focus on establishing a the one-sided Kurdish political Kurdish friendly governing system order is as follows: in Baghdad while the Kurdistan Democratic Party accumulated 1) The strategic political agreement power in the Kurdistan Region of between the Kurdistan Democratic Iraq, which ultimately worked to serve the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Party in the end and has created Kurdistan: an imbalance of power in Iraqi The Kurdistan Democratic Party Kurdistan. This imbalance of power and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan allowed the Kurdistan Democratic had worked closely with the United Party to use the last four years to States forces in Iraq during the expel the Gorran Movement›s 2003 Iraq war and onwards. The ministers from government, award two parties offered much assistance power over both Peshmerga and to the Americans in their efforts Interior ministries to a single to recapture the Iraqi disputed individual. The party was also able territories.
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