Representatives of 12 Private Operators (OP)
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POSCH & PARTNERS THE WORLD BANK / OECD CONSULTING ENGINEERS PSP IN MUNICIPAL WATER SERVICES INNSBRUCK, AUSTRIA IN THE ECA REGION 4.5 SESSION 5 4.5.1 Presentation of Survey and Interview Results, Part 1 (by Mr Fritz Schwaiger, Posch & Partners Consulting Engineers) 4.5.2 Presentation of Survey and Interview Results, Part 2 (by Mr Fritz Schwaiger, Posch & Partners Consulting Engineers) 72 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA OBJECTIVES OF STUDY Private Sector Participation (PSP) Role of large PS Western European operators, in Municipal Water Services donors and IFIs in municipal water services in ECA region in Central and Eastern Europe Role PS is ready to play if existing barriers were and Central Asia (ECA) removed Strategies of IFIs and Donors to maximise leverage of PS resources Part 1 4/24/2002 1 4/24/2002 2 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA APPROACH & TIME FRAME SELECTION OF INTERVIEW CANDIDATES Response to Questionnaires 30 25 • OECD & World Bank guidance 20 • Approached: 15 • 16 Operators 3 IFIs 10 • • 17 Bilateral donors 5 0 19.02.02 23.02.02 27.02.02 03.03.02 07.03.02 11.03.02 15.03.02 19.03.02 23.03.02 27.03.02 31.03.02 04.04.02 4/24/2002 3 4/24/2002 4 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA DATA BASE INTERNET RESEARCH Questionnaires Interviews • Country Profiles / Internet Research distributed response response • World Bank: fact sheets, country briefs, sector reports Operators 13 11 85% 6 • EBRD: investment profiles IFIs 3 3 100% 2 • BISNIS: U.S. Department of Commerce Donors 17 11 65% 5 • OECD: International Development Statistics Total 33 25 76% 13 • ADB: country profiles • EU: External relations 4/24/2002 5 4/24/2002 6 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA THE PRIVATE SECTOR´S VIEW 5 CEE EE LV RU 7 Balkan LT 1 Minor Asia PL CZ BY 3 Baltic “THE PRIVATE SECTOR´S VIEW” SK 4 EE&Russia SI • 11 Western European Operators (responded) HU 3 Caucasus HR • France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Austria BA RO MD UA 5 Central Asia KZ YU 28 Total • With mixed long-, medium- & short term operational AL BG experience KG GE UZ TR AM AZ TJ TM 4/24/2002 7 4/24/2002 8 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA COUNTRY CATEGORISATION BY PS (1) COUNTRY CATEGORISATION BY PS (2) IFI for IFI for No IFI regulatory IFI for finance & Too risky, help reform finance regulatory only Country n needed needed needed ref. need. Manag. C. No interest Categories: I II IIIa III-t IV V Central and Eastern Europe • (I) No IFI help needed Czech Republic 9 78% 0% 22% 0% 0% Hungary 9 56% 11% 22% 0% 11% • (II) IFI needed for regulatory reforms Slovenia 9 56% 0% 33% 0% 11% Poland 10 40% 20% 40% 0% 0% • (III) IFI needed for financing Slovakia 9 11% 11% 78% 0% 0% Romania 9 0% 11% 11% 67% 0% 11% • (IIIa) IFI needed for finance & regulatory reforms Balkans Croatia 10 10% 20% 20% 40% 0% 10% • (IV) Too risky, only management contracts Republic of Yugoslavia 10 0% 0% 30% 40% 10% 20% Bulgaria 10 10% 10% 10% 60% 0% 10% • (V) No interest Albania 10 0% 0% 20% 10% 40% 30% Bosnia and Herzegovina 80%0% 0% 75% 25% FYR of Macedonia 80%0% 0% 75% 25% Minor Asia • n = 8 ÷ 11 Turkey 12 17% 8% 33% 33% 0% 8% Colour code: < 25 % 25 - 50 % 50 - 60 % > 60 % 4/24/2002 9 4/24/2002 10 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA COUNTRY CATEGORISATION BY PS (3) RISK ASSESSMENT PER COUNTRY (1) IFI for IFI for No IFI regulatory IFI for finance & Too risky, help reform finance regulatory only Country n needed needed needed ref. need. Manag. C. No interest I II IIIa III-t IV V Risk assessment per country Baltic Estonia 9 11% 33% 22% 0% 33% (why was country put into relevant category) Latvia 9 11% 11% 11% 33% 0% 33% Lithuania 9 11% 11% 11% 33% 0% 33% Risk classification: Eastern Europe and Russia Russian Federation 11 0% 0% 27% 18% 27% 27% • (3) stands for: this is the main reason / risk Moldova 10 0% 0% 10% 40% 50% Belarus 11 0% 0% 9% 9% 45% 36% • (2) stands for: this is a main reason / risk Ukraine 13 0% 0% 15% 23% 46% 15% • (1) stands for: this is a reason / risk to some extent Caucasus Armenia 11 0% 0% 9% 9% 36% 45% • (0) stands for: no significant risk Georgia 11 0% 0% 9% 55% 36% Azerbaijan 9 0% 0% 11% 67% 22% Central Asia Kazakhstan 10 0% 0% 20% 50% 30% Uzbekistan 10 0% 0% 10% 60% 30% Turkmenistan 9 0% 0% 0% 44% 56% Kyrgyz Republic 9 0% 0% 0% 44% 56% Tajikistan4/24/2002 10 0% 0% 10% 30% 11 60% 4/24/2002 12 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA RISK ASSESSMENT PER COUNTRY (2) RISK ASSESSMENT PER COUNTRY (3) Low profit Strong War, civil Legislat. Macr o Political Recipient Country Operat- Water expec- compe- Financial disturb- Regula- does not Breach of economic Political inter- not inter- Low profit Strong War, civil Legislat. Macro Political Recipient ion risk tariffs low tations tition risk ance tory risk permit contract risk instability ference ested Other Country Operat- Wat er expec- compe- Financial disturb- Regula- does not Breach of economic Political inter- not inter- Poland 0,81,30,91,11,10,31,30,41,01,3 0,6 1,4 0,8 0,8 ion risk tariffs low tations tition risk ance tory risk permit contract risk instability ference ested Other Czech Republ i c 0,60,91,01,61,00,30,70,30,91,1 0,6 1,4 0,4 0,0 Romania 1,2 2,3 1,6 1,3 2,0 0,8 1,9 0,7 1,3 1,8 1,2 1,8 0,7 1,0 Estonia 1,30,70,71,31,00,31,70,31,02,0 0,7 1,3 0,0 0,0 Bulgaria 1,3 2,3 1,6 0,7 2,0 0,5 1,4 0,7 1,2 2,2 1,0 1,3 0,0 0,8 Latvia 1,30,70,71,31,00,32,00,31,02,0 0,7 1,7 0,3 0,0 Republic of Yugoslavia 1,0 2,3 1,7 0,6 2,3 1,8 2,0 1,0 1,7 2,2 1,8 1,8 0,0 1,5 Lithuania 1,30,70,71,31,00,32,00,31,02,0 0,7 1,7 0,3 0,0 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,8 2,0 1,5 0,5 2,2 2,4 2,0 1,3 2,0 2,2 2,0 2,0 0,3 0,0 Slovakia 0,72,01,51,11,40,41,60,71,31,3 0,9 1,4 0,4 0,0 FYR of Macedonia 2,0 2,0 1,3 0,3 2,2 2,5 2,0 1,0 2,0 2,3 2,3 2,0 0,3 0,0 Hungary 0,51,81,21,31,30,51,40,51,21,0 0,5 1,7 0,7 0,0 Albania 1,9 2,3 1,8 0,8 2,1 2,0 2,1 1,0 2,2 2,3 2,2 2,0 0,5 1,0 Slovenia 0,70,80,71,01,00,51,20,50,71,5 1,1 1,0 0,0 0,0 Croatia 1,12,01,31,01,71,31,70,91,42,0 1,3 1,4 0,0 0,8 Bel arus 2,0 2,2 1,6 0,8 2,0 1,6 2,2 1,6 1,8 2,3 1,6 2,3 0,8 0,0 Turkey 1,01,30,81,72,10,81,50,31,52,0 1,5 1,8 0,5 0,0 Ukrai ne 1,7 2,3 1,8 0,8 2,2 1,3 2,2 1,2 2,0 2,4 1,5 2,0 0,4 0,8 Russian Federation 1,51,71,21,01,50,81,51,51,71,9 0,8 1,6 0,3 0,8 Moldova 1,8 2,0 1,8 1,0 2,3 1,3 2,0 1,3 2,0 2,6 1,5 2,2 0,7 1,0 Azerbaijan 1,61,81,81,02,01,61,41,61,82,2 1,6 1,7 0,6 1,0 Geor gi a 2,0 1,8 1,7 0,6 2,0 1,8 2,0 1,0 2,0 2,3 1,8 2,2 0,8 1,0 Kazakhstan 1,81,51,50,82,01,52,01,42,02,3 1,6 2,0 0,8 1,3 Armenia 1,8 2,0 2,0 0,8 2,0 1,6 2,0 1,0 2,0 2,6 1,5 2,0 0,8 1,3 Uzbekistan 2,02,01,50,82,31,82,01,41,82,0 1,8 2,3 0,8 1,3 Turkmenistan 2,02,01,50,82,01,82,01,82,01,5 1,6 1,7 0,8 2,0 Kyrgyz Republic 2,02,01,80,82,01,82,01,81,82,3 1,6 2,3 0,8 0,7 Legend: (3) = this is the main reason/risk (2) this is a main reason/risk (1) this is a reason/risk (0) this is no significant reason/risk Tajikistan 2,02,01,50,82,02,32,01,82,02,0 2,0 2,3 0,8 1,3 Colour code: < 0,75 0,75 - 1,5 1,5 - 2,25 > 2,25 Legend: (3) = this is the main reason/risk (2) this is a main reason/risk (1) this is a reason/risk (0) this is no significant reason/risk Colour code: < 0,75 0,75 - 1,5 1,5 - 2,25 > 2,25 4/24/2002 13 4/24/2002 14 OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK OECD/OCDE THE WORLD BANK PSP IN EU-ACCESSION COUNTRIES PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ECA RISK SHARING / MITIGATION INTEREST IN MANAGEMENT CONTRACTS Interest in Management Contracts Risk sharing Operational risks: PS is ready to take (decreasing 30% consumption, continuous service, compliance with standards …) Political risks: (to be taken by those who can (partly) yes no influence) 70% n = 10 n = 10 Financial risks: (local finance; to be taken by those who can (partly) influence) Risk Mitigation National export guarantees (export element small) MIGA (expensive, not much experience by PS) 4/24/2002 15 4/24/2002 16 WHYPRIVATE INTERESTED SECTOR IN MANAGEMENTPARTICIPATION CONTR.