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Sun Zizheng ANALYSIS of IMPACT of INTEREST RATE

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Sun Zizheng ANALYSIS of IMPACT of INTEREST RATE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS STATE EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION "SCHOOL OF BUSINESS OF BELARUSIAN STATE UNIVERSITY" Chair of Innovative Management Sun Zizheng ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF INTEREST RATE LIBERALIZATION ON CHINA’S COMMERCIAL BANKS Master`s thesis specialty 1-26 80 04 "Management" (profile "Financial Management") Supervisor: Darakhovich Siarhei Admitted to Master’s thesis defense on "___" ____________ 2021 Head of Chair of Innovative Management Ph.D., Associate professor __________ Alena A. Poddubskaya Minsk, 2021 CONTENTS GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WORK .................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR UNDERSTANDING THE CONCEPT OF INTEREST RATE LIBERALISATION ............................................. 6 1.1 Definition of the interest rate and its different types .......................................... 6 1.1.1 Definition of the interest rate ........................................................................ 6 1.1.2 Types of interest rates ................................................................................... 6 1.2 The Importance and content of interest rate liberalization ................................. 8 1.2.1 Importance of interest rate liberalization ...................................................... 8 1.2.2 The content of interest rate liberalization ..................................................... 9 1.3 International experience of interest rate liberalization...................................... 11 1.4 The development and current situation of interest rate liberalization in China 14 1.4.1 Obstacles of China's Interest Rate Liberalization Reform .......................... 16 CHAPTER 2 ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S BANKING SYSTEM ............................... 18 2.1 China’s banking system and the People’s Bank of China ................................ 18 2.2 Big Four Banks.................................................................................................. 21 2.3 State-owned, joint-stock, and city commercial banks ...................................... 23 2.4 The role of Chinese commercial banks in the banking sector .......................... 24 2.5 Foreign banks .................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3 ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF INTEREST RATE LIBERALIZATION ON CHINA’S COMMERCIAL BANK ..................................................................... 29 3.1 The influence mechanism of the liberalization of interest rate on commercial banks ............................................................................................................................ 29 3.2 Specific impacts on banks of different sizes ..................................................... 32 3.3 The impact of interest rate liberalization on new products, new business and margin structure in commercial banks ........................................................................ 33 3.4 Analysis of impact of interest rate liberalization on China’s commercial banks ..................................................................................................................................... 34 3.5 Countermeasures in the context of interest rate liberalization .......................... 40 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................... 44 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 46 APPENDIX ................................................................................................................. 49 2 GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WORK Master's thesis on the topic: 51 pages, 2 figure, 6 tables, 40 sources. Keywords: COMMERCIAL BANK; INTEREST RATE LIBERALIZATION; INTERMEDIATE BUSINESS. The object of the research: commercial banks as the most important element of the Chinese banking sector. The subject of the research: internationalization of the commercial banks in China in the context of interest rate liberalization. Aim of my research is to reveal the impact of interest rate liberalization on China’s commercial banks. Research objectives: 1. To consider the concept of interest rate liberalization; 2. To analyze the development and current situation of interest rate liberalization in China; 3. To reveal negative and positive impacts of interest rate liberalization on the development and current situation of interest rate liberalization in China; 4. To consider countermeasures in the context of interest rate liberalization 3 INTRODUCTION For all countries or regions, interest rate liberalization is of great significance to the economy, and this reform will have a huge impact on the whole financial market. Financial liberalization can bring many benefits. Since capital and risk can be better priced, liberalization can improve investment allocation and efficiency. Banks that are more efficient and better at assessing risks will gain a larger market share. Credit support to sectors with poor financial services in the past will also increase. The range of financial products will be expanded, and enterprises and households will be able to better manage risks and obtain opportunities for diversified asset selection. However, if the timing of implementation is not ripe, financial liberalization may also expose the weaknesses of the financial sector, damage the termination of activities and cause economic fluctuations. The liberalization of interest rates refers to the process in which various economic entities in a market economy independently determine the level and structure of interest rates. In essence, it is a process in which the market mechanism gradually plays a role in determining interest rates, thereby continuously optimizing capital flow and allocation. In China, the liberalization of interest rates is an important part of the reform of the socialist economic system. Opening up the interest rate transmission mechanism and integrating the dual-track interest rate determination mechanism is the main task of my country's interest rate liberalization.Embarking on interest rate liberalization reforms nearly two decades ago, China has made significant progress in the past few years, but has yet to take the final and most critical step: removing deposit rate ceilings in order to reach full interest rate liberalization. China’s policymakers have adopted a cautious approach towards the timing and sequencing of the liberalization to minimize disruptions to the stability of the financial system. Despite the slow pace of reform, policymakers have placed a high priority on liberalizing interest rates. Market participants anticipate full liberalization within the next decade to improve the allocation of financial resources and facilitate the rebalancing of the Chinese economy. As for commercial banks, similarly no matter which country or region, it is also an important member of the financial system. It directly participates in the entire market economic activities and connects the implementation path of monetary policy. It is a very important financial institution, and it has great influence on any economic system. Significantly, it is very important for controlling the development process of the market economy, the flow of social capital, and the implementation of relevant national economic policies. Many scholars try to study the effects of reformation from the perspective of buyer sides. Regarding the impact of interest rate liberalization on commercial banks, 4 three scholars, Ba Shusong, Yan Min, and Wang Yuexiang(2013) gave a very specific and thorough analysis and explanation in the "Analysis of the Impact of my country’s Interest Rate Liberalization on Commercial Banks". They concluded that the profit model depending on high interest margin cannot be sustained, in which circumstance capital pressure is increasing and pricing power needs to be enhanced.[1] Jin Lingling, Zhu Yuanqian and Ba Shusong(2012), in the “International Experience and Enlightenment from the Impact of Interest Rate Liberalization on Commercial Banks”, mentioned the changes of global interest rates and the spread of deposits and loans, and analyzed the trend of the spread of deposits and loans. It can be concluded that interest rate liberalization will affects the deposits-loans surplus of banks, and this profit model is unsustainable, indicating that a new profit model is needed.[3] In reference to foreign experience, Xiao Xinrong and Wu Yonggang(2011) published the "Impact of American Interest Rate Liberalization Reform on the Banking Industry". It can be concluded that for China’s late start, the experience of foreign developed economies is of great significance to the development of China’s interest rate liberalization.[2] Regarding risks and problems, in the "Challenges and Responses to Commercial Banks from the Liberalization of Interest Rates", Li Hongjin(2015) analyzed the problems faced by commercial banks such as the reduction of deposit-loan margins and the pricing power of commercial banks due to the liberalization of interest rates, and believed that loan interest rates would rise However, the deposit-loan gap will still shrink, and interest rate fluctuations will increase credit risk and liquidity risk.[7] To sum up, there are different opinions on the topic of the impact of interest rate liberalization
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