Revitalizing Contra Costa's Northern Waterfront
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Revitalizing Contra Costa’s Northern Waterfront How to be Competitive in the 21st Century Global Economy January 2014 “It’s long been a vision of mine to revitalize Contra Costa County’s Northern Waterfront. As a young man, working first at USS-POSCO and then at Dow Chemical, I gained a deep appreciation and understanding of how important Pittburg’s working waterfront is to the community. Likewise, I see the revitalization of the County’s Northern Waterfront as vital to anyone concerned with economic development in Contra Costa County.” “I want to bring together all the stakeholders on the County’s Northern Waterfront, from Hercules to Oakley. That includes private industries, the waterfront cities, public agencies, and community groups. I believe if we act as a regional group, we can wield more influence than if each of us tried to act alone. The Northern Waterfront is one of the County’s greatest economic assets, but underutilized. I want to change that.” –Supervisor Federal Glover, District V Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors April 2013 Revitalizing Contra Costa’s Northern Waterfront How to be Competitive in the 21st Century Global Economy Project Commissioned by the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors under the direction of the Contra Costa County Conservation and Development Department ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors Consultant Team Ad hoc Committee on the Northern Gary Craft, Craft Consulting Group Waterfront Economic Development Initiative Kevin Stichter, Craft Consulting Group Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District 5 Michael Fischer, Cambridge Systematics Supervisor Mary Nejedly Piepho, District 3 Monica Isabell, Cambridge Systematics Chiranjivi Bhamidipati, Cambridge Systematics Northern Waterfront Jim Cassio, Jim Cassio & Associates Work Group Eric Rehn, Kennedy Wilson Real Estate Rich Seithel, Contra Costa County Janet Fazio, Janet Fazio Advertising Patrick Roche, Contra Costa County Alexandra Endress, City of Pittsburg Prepared by Anna Gwyn Simpson, City of Martinez Craft Consulting Group Garrett Evans, City of Pittsburg In Association with Josh McMurray, City of Oakley Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Michelle Fitzer, City of Antioch January 2014 Mitch Austin, Consultant to the City of Martinez Robert Ramirez, City of Concord Steve Duran, City of Hercules Victor Carniglia, Consultant to the City of Antioch Stephen Baiter, Contra Costa Workforce Development Board Larry Jones, Contra Costa Workforce Development Board William Silva, Consultant to the City of Hercules Revitalizing Contra Costa’s Northern Waterfront, January 2014 v Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 7 The Northern Waterfront’s Historical Role ............................................................ 11 Existing Industrial Base ........................................................................................ 13 Emerging Opportunities ....................................................................................... 33 Challenges Ahead ................................................................................................ 39 Development Outlook for the Northern Waterfront .............................................. 45 Northern Waterfront’s Role in the 21st Century ................................................... 61 Target Industries and Clusters .............................................................................. 63 Recommended Policy Initiatives for Local Governments .................................... 67 Appendix .............................................................................................................. 75 Revitalizing Contra Costa’s Northern Waterfront, January 2014 | Table of Contents vii Figures Figure 1: Northern Waterfront Study Area .............................................................. 7 Figure 2: Industrial Activity Centers along the Northern Waterfront ..................... 13 Figure 3: Manufacturing Sector Employment Growth Trends in the Northern Waterfront 2001-2013 ......................................... 14 Figure 4: Growth/Decline of Manufacturing Subsectors in the Northern Waterfront 2001-2013 .............................................. 16 Figure 5: Manufacturing Subsectors in the Northern Waterfront Showing Competitive Strengths .......................................... 16 Figure 6: Where are the Major Vendors/Suppliers in Your Supply Chain Located? ................................................................................ 19 Figure 7: Where Are Your Major Markets Located? ............................................. 20 Figure 8: Connectivity of Northern Waterfront to Principal Transportation Corridors ....................................................................... 23 Figure 9: Parcel Sizes ........................................................................................... 28 Figure 10: Age of Structures ................................................................................ 28 Figure 11: East Bay/Walnut Creek Industrial Submarket ..................................... 29 Figure 12: Northern Waterfront Industrial Vacancy Rate Trends .......................... 30 Figure 13: Expansion Plans of Existing Manufacturing Firms in the Northern Waterfront .......................................................................... 33 Figure 14: Where are the Major Vendors/Suppliers in Your Supply Chain Located? ................................................................................ 36 Figure 15: Significant Barriers to Growth ............................................................. 39 Figure 16: Projected Manufacturing Job Growth 2013-2023 ............................... 45 Figure 17: Alternative Development Scenarios .................................................... 54 Figure 18: Net Absorption .................................................................................... 58 Figure A1: Suisun Bay Channel Dredging Plan .................................................... 93 Figure A2: Local Manufacturing Competitive Strengths Relative to the National Economy ........................................................................ 94 Figure A3: Outbound Commodities from the Bay Area FAF Zone, 2011 ..................................................................................... 95 Figure A4: Outbound Commodities from the Bay Area FAF Zone, 2035 ..................................................................................... 96 Figure A5: Survey Methodology ........................................................................... 97 Figure A6: Northern Waterfront Survey Questionnaire ......................................... 98 Figure A7: Survey Responses (Survey Monkey)................................................. 102 Figure A8: Industrial Site Selection Criteria ........................................................ 112 Revitalizing Contra Costa’s Northern Waterfront, January 2014 | Table of Contents Tables Table 1: Major Manufacturing Employers in the Northern Waterfront .................. 15 Table 2: Potential Industry Clusters ...................................................................... 18 Table 3: Northern Waterfront Arrivals by Port (2012) ............................................ 21 Table 4: Bay Area Region and Contra Costa County Economic Profiles, 2011 ....................................................................................... 27 Table 5: Industrial Parcels in the Northern Waterfront .......................................... 28 Table 6: Bay Area Industrial Real Estate Submarkets (in square feet) .................. 29 Table 7: Employment Growth Plans in County’s Advanced Manufacturing Subsectors 2013-2016 ................................................................. 46 Table 8: Projected Growth of Manufacturing Industries Along Northern Waterfront ................................................................................... 47 Table 9: Shift Share Analysis of Projected Manufacturing Sector Job Growth in Communities Along the Northern Waterfront ............................... 49 Table 10: Long-Term Manufacturing Employment Growth in Contra Costa County: 2010-2035 ........................................................................ 53 Table 11: Projection of Historical Employment Trends in the Northern Waterfront Over the Short and Long Term by Manufacturing Subsector ............. 55 Table 12: Estimated Utilization of Existing Industrial Space ................................ 57 Table 13: Estimated Space Demand for Mid-Range Development Scenarios ..... 59 Table 14: Vacant Industrial Parcels and Acreage in the Northern Waterfront ...... 60 Table 15: Acreage Requirement for Projected Manufacturing Sector Employment Growth ................................................................................. 60 Table 16: Target Industry Identification ................................................................. 64 Table 17: Business Attraction and Retention Targets ........................................... 65 Table A1: Manufacturing Employment Growth Assumptions ............................... 75 Table A2: Northern Waterfront Competitive Assessment Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats ........................................... 76 Table A3: Description of Port Facilities in the Northern Waterfront