Indonesia Company Update

23 March 2021 Communications | Media

Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) Buy (Maintained)

Double Catalysts Coming Up; Reiterate BUY Target Price (Return): IDR1,640 (+55%) Price: IDR1,055 Market Cap: USD1,102m Avg Daily Turnover (IDR/USD) 54,111m/3.84m

 Reiterate BUY, IDR1,640 TP, 55% upside with c.7% FY21F yield. With Analysts the announcement of Media Nusantara Citra’s 4Q20 and 1Q21 results ahead, we believe there may be a potential double catalyst for its share Ghibran Al Imran price. Its 4Q20 numbers will reflect the repayment of debts, so the overhang +6221 5093 9842 for investors should be over. For 1Q21, its audience share broke its record, [email protected] with an average prime-time share of 51.4%. This implies a very strong advertising (ad) allocation, and outstanding results for the quarter. Christopher Andre Benas  Long-awaited debt repayment should be seen in its books soon. The company’s IDR1.5trn deleveraging programme was completed in 4Q20. It +6221 5093 9847 [email protected] paid c.IDR900bn by 3Q20, and the remainder should be repaid and

reflected in its 4Q20 books. When executed, the company may book lower Share Performance (%) interest expenses by up to 25-30% next year. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m  Margin normalisation in 4Q20F. Margins contracted in 2Q20-3Q20 as ad Absolute (7.5) (0.5) (10.6) 43.5 19.9 spending fell, and MNCN incurred a one-off opex for new initiatives related Relative (12.9) (1.2) (15.2) 15.8 (30.3) to partnerships with Facebook, TikTok, and E-TV Mall. Management said margins will normalise in 4Q20F. GPM should rebound to 63%, from 61% 52-wk Price low/high (IDR) 705 – 1,270

in 3Q20, while the EBITDA margin is expected to climb back up to 44%. As revenue is recovering, FY21 margins should improve further. Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) Price Close Relative to Composite Index (RHS)  Strong TV revenue in 1Q21, driven by record-breaking audience share. 1,340 127

MNCN’s prime-time audience shares in January and February were at 1,240 117

record-breaking 51-52% levels. This was due to a strong performance by 1,140 107 RCTI – driven by the hit drama series, Ikatan Cinta – which enjoyed an 8- day streak of recording a >40% share. The high audience share should 1,040 97 translate to strong TV ad revenue in 1Q21. YTD, TV ad revenue has grown 940 87 11% YoY, even though it did not increase advertising rates. This should 840 77

pave the way for a recovery in ad revenue, driven by pent-up demand in ad 740 67

spending after fast-moving consumer goods companies went on a cost- 640 57

saving spree during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Average

Jul-20 Jul-20

Apr-20 Apr-20 Oct-20 Oct-20

Jun-20 Jan-21 Jan-21

Mar-20 Feb-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Dec-20 Nov-20 Nov-20

Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 May-20 occupancy rates (broadcast slots) of TV advertising are expected to rise 5- May-20 10ppt in FY21, to 80-85%. Source: Bloomberg

 Content revenue may grow rapidly. When large-scale social distancing measures were in effect, MNCN still produced over 9,000 hours of content. This year, the company targets to produce 21,000-22,000 hours of content. It is also negotiating with various over-the-top platforms to sell its content, and targets 50% YoY growth in net content revenue this year.  BUY this laggard, as catalysts loom ahead. MNCN’s share price has lagged behind other media stocks, as investors were waiting for an update on the repayment of its debts. As the repayment was made in 4Q20, the overhang on the stock should be over and its share price should increase ahead. It should also book strong 1Q21 results. MNCN is trading at just 6x P/E, which provides a good entry point, in view of the catalysts ahead.

Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover (IDRb) 7,444 8,353 8,064 9,252 9,940 Recurring net profit (IDRb) 1,531 2,233 1,973 2,578 2,720 Recurring net profit growth (%) 5.4 45.8 (11.7) 30.7 5.5 Recurring P/E (x) 9.84 6.74 7.64 5.84 5.54 P/B (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 P/CF (x) 49.22 na 15.22 22.23 17.49 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.4 7.4 6.5 8.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.10 3.25 3.11 2.42 2.08 Return on average equity (%) 16.2 20.8 16.2 19.1 18.1 InterestNet debt cover to equity (x) (%) 7.77 34.2 7.47 29.1 6.98 22.4 10.94 16.6 11.49 12.3

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)

Media Nusantara Citra Company Update

23 March 2021 Communications | Media

Financial Exhibits

Asia Financial summary (IDR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Indonesia Recurring EPS 107.27 156.44 138.18 180.56 190.52 Communications DPS 14.66 15.00 78.22 69.09 90.28 Media Nusantara Citra BVPS 691.07 814.63 890.70 1,002.17 1,102.41 MNCN IJ Return on average equity (%) 16.2 20.8 16.2 19.1 18.1 Buy Valuation metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 9.84 6.74 7.64 5.84 5.54 12x P/E P/B (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 FCF Yield (%) (3.0) (9.2) 2.6 0.5 1.7 Key drivers Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.4 7.4 6.5 8.6 i. Higher volume of ad spending, due to pent-up EV/EBITDA (x) 4.10 3.25 3.11 2.42 2.08 demand; EV/EBIT (x) 4.76 3.70 3.63 2.80 2.42 ii. Bigger market share in ad allocation, due to its

strong audience share; iii. Lower interest expense post debt repayments. Income statement (IDRb) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover 7,444 8,353 8,064 9,252 9,940 Key risks Gross profit 4,619 5,323 5,162 5,924 6,349 i. Decrease in the volume of its advertising EBITDA 3,177 3,713 3,540 4,140 4,368 spending; Depreciation and amortisation (437) (454) (507) (561) (610) ii. Legal risks; Operating profit 2,740 3,259 3,034 3,580 3,758 iii. Regulatory risk regarding a migration to digital Net interest (323) (412) (410) (301) (301) TV; iv. A change in regulations affecting licensing fees. Pre-tax profit 2,104 2,939 2,724 3,386 3,572 Taxation (498) (587) (627) (677) (714) Company Profile Reported net profit 1,531 2,233 1,973 2,578 2,720 Media Nusantara Citra is an integrated media company Recurring net profit 1,531 2,233 1,973 2,578 2,720 with businesses including FTA TV, content production, newspaper, radio stations, magazines, online portals, Cash flow (IDRb) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F and an over-the-top streaming platform. Change in w orking capital (773) (630) 239 (608) (496)

Cash flow from operations 306 (124) 990 678 861

Capex (763) (1,259) (600) (600) (600)

Cash flow from investing activities (763) (1,259) (600) (600) (600) Dividends paid (209) (214) (1,117) (986) (1,289) Cash flow from financing activities 709 37 (225) (29) (173) Cash at beginning of period 469 720 631 894 1,209 Net change in cash 251 (1,346) 165 49 88

Ending balance cash 720 (626) 795 942 1,297

Balance sheet (IDRb) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total cash and equivalents 987 885 1,394 1,709 2,082 Total investments 6,443 7,552 8,152 8,752 9,352 Total assets 16,340 17,836 18,971 20,535 22,030 Short-term debt 1,387 1,656 1,656 1,656 1,656 Total long-term debt 3,241 2,877 2,813 2,613 2,513 Total liabilities 5,697 5,311 5,234 5,076 5,001 Total equity 10,642 12,526 13,737 15,459 17,028 Total liabilities & equity 16,340 17,836 18,971 20,535 22,030

Key metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Revenue grow th (%) 5.5 12.2 (3.5) 14.7 7.4 Recurrent EPS grow th (%) 5.4 45.8 (11.7) 30.7 5.5 Gross margin (%) 62.0 63.7 64.0 64.0 63.9 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 42.7 44.5 43.9 44.8 43.9 Net profit margin (%) 20.6 26.7 24.5 27.9 27.4 Dividend payout ratio (%) 13.7 9.6 56.6 38.3 47.4 Capex/sales (%) 10.3 15.1 7.4 6.5 6.0 Interest cover (x) 7.77 7.47 6.98 10.94 11.49

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)

Media Nusantara Citra Indonesia Company Update

23 March 2021 Communications | Media

Figure 1: Prime-time group audience share according to Figure 2: All-time group audience share according to broadcaster (6pm-10.59pm) broadcaster (2am-10.59pm) (%) Prime-time Audience Share (%) All-time Audience Share

55 50 52.1 50 45 44.0 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 28.4 26.9 25 25 20 20 15 15 12.9 12.2 10 10 10 5 8.7

SCMA MNCN Trans VIVA

SCMA MNCN Trans VIVA

Source: Nielsen, Company data, RHB Source: Nielsen, Company data, RHB

Figure 3: Breakdown of YTD audience share according to broadcaster All-Time SCMA MNCN Trans VIVA Prime-Time SCMA MNCN Trans VIVA Jan-19 31.8 33.9 14.6 16.4 Jan-19 32.0 37.7 13.4 13.8 Feb-19 31.5 35.3 14.6 15.4 Feb-19 33.2 37.3 13.8 12.6 Mar-19 31.5 34.5 14.7 15.8 Mar-19 33.7 36.5 13.2 13.0 Apr-19 30.0 35.5 14.4 16.1 Apr-19 31.3 37.3 13.4 14.1 May-19 31.4 34.4 13.7 16.3 May-19 32.7 35.4 12.6 14.9 Jun-19 31.1 32.3 15.2 17.1 Jun-19 30.4 32.9 15.1 17.3 Jul-19 30.2 33.8 16.2 16.2 Jul-19 29.4 36.2 14.5 16.4 Aug-19 31.7 33.2 16.3 14.9 Aug-19 31.7 36.2 14.9 13.4 Sep-19 30.3 33.1 18.5 14.0 Sep-19 30.0 35.8 17.8 11.7 Oct-19 30.8 32.8 18.4 13.8 Oct-19 29.8 35.6 17.3 12.8 Nov-19 31.6 33.9 18.0 13.0 Nov-19 30.1 35.8 17.7 12.8 Dec-19 32.4 33.9 16.5 13.4 Dec-19 32.5 35.8 16.4 11.6 Avg-2019 31.2 33.9 15.9 15.2 Avg-2019 31.4 36.0 15.0 13.7

Jan-20 35.5 32.3 15.5 13.0 Jan-20 36.8 32.0 14.5 13.2 Feb-20 34.5 33.2 15.7 13.4 Feb-20 36.4 33.1 13.9 13.4 Mar-20 32.7 32.7 15.7 14.8 Mar-20 33.4 31.9 15.1 15.3 Apr-20 30.0 34.6 15.9 14.7 Apr-20 29.7 34.7 17.0 14.2 May-20 30.0 36.9 16.8 12.6 May-20 29.8 37.8 17.5 11.2 Jul-20 31.2 35.0 16.8 13.8 Jul-20 32.9 35.3 14.1 14.8 Aug-20 33.1 33.6 16.5 13.8 Aug-20 33.2 33.6 13.9 16.4 Sep-20 33.3 32.3 16.9 14.5 Sep-20 33.5 33 14.4 16.2 Oct-20 31.5 33.0 17.5 15.0 Oct-20 32.6 34 15.4 14.9 Nov-20 30.6 36.8 16.3 13.5 Nov-20 28.8 42.8 13.6 12.2 Dec-20 28.5 40.4 14.9 13.2 Dec-20 24.7 48.9 11 12.4 Avg-2020 31.9 34.6 16.2 13.8 Avg-2020 32.0 36.1 14.6 14.0

Jan-21 28.1 42.4 13.0 12.2 Jan-21 25.5 50.7 9.3 10.5 Feb-21 28.4 44.0 12.9 12.2 Feb-21 26.9 52.1 8.7 10 Avg-2021 28.3 43.2 13.0 12.2 Avg-2021 26.2 51.4 9.0 10.3

Avg-2M20 35.0 32.8 15.6 13.2 Avg-2M20 36.6 32.6 14.2 13.3 Avg-2M21 28.3 43.2 13.0 12.2 Avg-2M21 26.2 51.4 9.0 10.3 YoY (ppt) (6.8) 10.5 (2.7) (1.0) YoY (ppt) (10.4) 18.9 (5.2) (3.1)

Source: Nielsen, Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)

Media Nusantara Citra Indonesia Company Update

23 March 2021 Communications | Media

Figure 4: MNCN’s P/E band

Source: Bloomberg, RHB

Recommendation Chart

Date Recommendation Target Price Price Price Close 2020-09-07 Buy 1,640 860 2,520 Recommendations & Target Price Source: RHB, Bloomberg 2,320 na 1,640 1,640 2,120 1,920 1,720 1,520 1,320 1,120 920 720 520 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Mar-16 Jun-17 Oct-18 Jan-20

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)

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RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve positions in the securities and/or capital market products (including but not limited to on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research shares, warrants, and/or derivatives), trade or otherwise effect transactions for its own analysts in this report. account or the account of its customers or perform and/or solicit investment, advisory 4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have or other services from any of the subject company(ies) covered in this research report. and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this While the RHBIB Group will ensure that there are sufficient information barriers and report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest. internal controls in place where necessary, to prevent/manage any conflicts of interest 5. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts, or person associated or to ensure the independence of this report, investors should also be aware that such connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the conflict of interest may exist in view of the investment banking activities undertaken by securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective the RHBIB Group as mentioned above and should exercise their own judgement investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report. before making any investment decisions. 6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report In Singapore, investment research activities are conducted under RHB Bank Berhad or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts. (Singapore branch), and the disclaimers above similarly apply. Analyst Certification Malaysia The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that: Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research conflict disclosures – Mar 2021 (1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market and to the best of our knowledge, RHBIB hereby declares that: products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for: 1. RHBIB does not have a financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report. Analyst Company 2. RHBIB is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the - - subject company(ies) covered in this report.

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(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

KUALA LUMPUR JAKARTA RHB Investment Bank Bhd PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 - SCBD Jalan Tun Razak Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53 Kuala Lumpur 50400 Jakarta 12190 Malaysia Indonesia Tel : +603 9280 8888 Tel : +6221 509 39 888 Fax : +603 9200 2216 Fax : +6221 509 39 777

BANGKOK SINGAPORE RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch) 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 90 Cecil Street 98, North Sathorn Road, Silom #04-00 RHB Bank Building Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Singapore 069531 Thailand Tel: +66 2088 9999 Fax :+66 2088 9799

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