EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE Department of Political and Social Sciences THE CONTEMPORARY IRISH PARTY: CAMPAIGN AND ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT David M. Farrell Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the Degree of Doctor of the European University Institute Examining jury: Prof. Jean Blondel (European University Institute) Prof. Michael Laver (supervisor - Trinity College Dublin) Prof. Feter Mair (University of Leiden) Prof. Wolfgang Müller (University of Vienna) Prof. Richard Sinnoit (co-supervisor - University College Dublin) Florence, November 1993 30001006323820 © EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE Department of Political and Social Sciences LIB 329.0209 415 FAR THE £6NTEMPORARY IRISH PARTY: CAMPAIGN AND ORGAfit^AtlONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT David M. Farrell Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the Degree of Doctor of the European University Institute Examining jury: Prof. Jean Blondel (European University Institute) Prof. Michael Laver (supervisor - Trinity College Dublin) Prof. Peter Mair (University of Leiden) Prof. Wolfgang Muller (University of Vienna) Prof. Richard Sinnott (co-supervisor - University College Dublin) Florence, November 1993 EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE Department of Political and Social Sciences THE CONTEMPORARY IRISH PARTY: CAMPAIGN AND ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT David M. Farrell Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the Degree of Doctor of the European University Institute Florence, November 1993 For my parents 1 CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures iii Acknowledgements v 1. Introduction: The Study of Irish Party Organisational Change 1 1.1. The Electoral Environment 4 1.2. The Irish Party System 7 1.3. Parties in Decline? 14 1.4. Outline of the Thesis 29 2. The New Media? 33 2.1. Changing Styles of Media Coverage 34 2.2. Media Coverage of Elections in Ireland 47 2.3. Explanations for Media Coverage 70 2.4. Conclusion 83 3. The New Voters? 85 3.1. Volatility and the Availability of Voters 86 3.2. Are Irish Voters more Volatile? 98 3.3. Conclusion 109 4. Contemporary Election Campaigning in a Comparative Perspective 111 4.1. Preparation and Planning 113 4.2. Consultants, Agencies, the Technology of Communications 118 4.3. The Use of Market Research 123 4.4. Conclusion 128 5. Irish Election Campaigning in the 1950s-1970s 131 5.1. Election Campaign Styles, 1950s-1960s 134 5.2. Case Study: Ireland 1977, A Campaign of Contrasts 153 5.3. Conclusion 165 6. The Fine Gael Campaign of 1981: A Case Study 168 6.1. Campaign Preparations 169 6.2. The Use of Agencies 177 6.3. Market Research 179 6.4. Conclusion 196 ii 7. Irish Election Campaigning in the 1980s-1990s 198 7.1. The Use of Agencies and Consultants 201 7.2. The Use of Market Research by Irish Parties 209 7.3. Conclusion 215 8. The Consequences for Party Organisations of a Changed Environment 216 8.1. Staffing 218 8.2. Party Membership 227 8.3. Party Structures 241 8.4. Party Finance 253 8.5. Conclusion 273 9. Conclusion: The Contemporary Irish Party 276 9.1. Changing Media and Voters 277 9.2. Changing Party Campaigns 278 9.3. The Implications for Party Organisations 280 9.4. Party Vulnerability: The Implications of the Irish Case 285 9.5. Party Adaptation and Irish Democracy 289 Appendix A 292 Appendix B 293 v Bibliography 296 ill LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES 1.1. The Irish 1992 Election: Votes and Seats 10 1.2. Panebianco’s Model of Party Change 22 2.1. Newspaper Coverage of the 1976 US Presidential Election 37 2.2. ‘Game’ Coverage in the 1979 European Parliament Elections 40 2.3. Average Total Percentage of Newspaper given to all Election Coverage 49 2.4. Percentage Themes Presented in the Irish Media, 1979 European Parliament Elections 51 2.5. Newspaper Coverage of Irish Elections, 1973 and 1989: ‘Game’ versus ‘Substance’ 55 2.6. Media Coverage Styles, 1989: Week-by-Week Breakdowns 58 2.7. Newspaper Coverage of Irish Elections, 1973 and 1989: Extent of Coverage 63 2.8. Newspaper Coverage of Irish Elections, 1973 and 1989: Types of Articles 68 2.9. The Proportion of Irish Homes with Access to Television 78 3.1. Electoral Volatility in Western Europe, 1948-1977 87 3.2. Aggregate Electoral Volatility in Western Europe, 1960-1983 89 3.3. Mair’s Index of Party Identification, 1978-1981 93 3.4. Aggregate Volatility in Ireland, 1948-1992: The Pedersen Index 101 4.1. The Contemporary Election Campaign: A Summary 127 5.1. Fine Gael Campaign Plans, 1954 and 1963 135 6.1. Percentage Agreeing or Disagreeing with the Statement: ‘The People of this country will have to make sacrifices to get over the country’s problems’. 183 7.1. Estimated Campaign Expenditure (£s), by Party: Constant Prices 200 7.2. Fine Gael Campaign Expenditure, 1966 Presidential Campaign and 1981 General Election: Percentage Breakdowns 203 7.3. Party Expenditure on Advertising, 1987-1992 206 . 7.4. Market Research by Irish Parties, 1969-1989 211 8.1. Number of Paid Staff by Party (five-year averages) 219 8.2. Party Indebtedness in the 1990s (Estimates) 256 8.3. Total State Subvention to Irish Parties (£s) 265 8.4. State Funding as a Proportion of Total Party Income 270 8.5. Allocation Rules for the Oireachtas Grant in 1987 (£s) 272 FIGURES 2.1. Game Coverage Throughout the 1989 Campaign 60 2.2. Game Coverage Trends in 1989: Moving Average 61 2.3. Newspaper Coverage of the Irish 1973 Campaign 65 2.4. Newspaper Coverage of the Irish 1989 Campaign 66 3.1. Causes of Electoral Change 96 8.1. Party Expenditure on Salaries 221 8.2. Party Membership 229 8.3. Party Membership Income 232 8.4. Party Branches 234 8.5. Organisational Structure of Fine Gael, 1970 239 8.6. Organisational Structure of Fine Gael, 1990 240 8.7. Party Income 254 8.8. State Subvention to Irish Parties (Constant Prices) 268 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis has been long in the brewing. In having followed a peripatetic route from Florence to Dublin to Manchester to Cardiff and back to Manchester, countless debts have been accumulated. Not least among them has been the great debt of gratitude I owe to the various computer support staff who have assisted in the transformation of this thesis from its original Prime version, through a VAX editor and onto the PC package, WordPerfect 5.0. It has ultimately ended up on Wordperfect 5.1. There is not enough space to thank individually all the people who have helped me at different stages in the writing of this thesis. The campaign strategists (listed in appendix B) were all courteous, patient and encouraging sources. The headquarters’ staff of the political parties could not have been more helpful in providing data where possible and in answering my endless queries. The library staff at the European University Institute, University College Dublin, University of Wales Cardiff, University of Manchester, and the National Library of Ireland have at different stages assisted in inevitable book and article searches. Among the academic colleagues I must single out are (for various reasons, not all strictly academic!): in a blur of different places, Peter Mair; in Florence. Stefano Bartolini and Ian Budge; in Dublin, Michael Gallagher, Tom Garvin, Michael Marsh, and the late John Whyte; in Cardiff, Rob Robinson; in Manchester: Simon Bulmer, Martin Burch, Peter Humphreys, Geoff Roberts, Maurice Wright and especially Mick Moran who commented on an earlier draft. I want to record a special thanks to Shaun Bowler, University of California, Riverside who, between beers and over the email has stirred not a few ideas. By agreement, I must also mention the other two retrogrades from the ‘via Puccinotti gang’, Martin Wortmann and Jan van der Harst. Finally, there are a number people who have been crucial in seeing this thesis to its completion. My two supervisors Michael Laver and Richard Sinnott have patiently and expeditiously guided me through countless drafts. Special thanks are reserved here for James McBride who, in the closing months, was a vital email conduit to Richard Sinnott! Arlene McCarthy's energy and sense of humour has sustained me during the writing of this. My parents. Brian and Marie-Therese. through their respective academic and practitioning pursuits, have been responsible for starting my interest in electoral politics in the first place, and have bullied, cajoled and supported me throughout the researching and writing of this thesis. Despite the best efforts of all of them, whatever blemishes remain in the following are entirely my own. DMF 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION: THE STUDY OF IRISH PARTY ORGANISATIONAL CHANGE Political parties in Ireland have changed a lot in recent years. Thirty years ago or so it might have been correct to say of Irish parties that they were predominantly local, volunteer machines, lacking any kind of centralised structures. For instance, writing in the late 1950s, Basil Chubb (1959, p. 195) noted of the two largest parties that ‘[they] have some sort of organisation over virtually the whole country’, which, he added, tended to be ‘vestigial between elections’. Such a description is no longer valid. The contemporary Irish party which campaigned in the most recent 1992 general election is a very different creature to its predecessor which campaigned in 1957. It has a far more developed organisation: it is better staffed and resourced; it makes use of marketing specialists and their techniques to plan a national strategy. This thesis seeks to explore the nature of party organisational change in Ireland; the factors which have influenced it; and its consequences. The central 2 argument is that to understand fully how party organisations have changed, we need to first understand the context in which this change has occurred.