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Vedanta Ltd (SESGOA) | 105 Target : | 100 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : -5% Domestic Zinc Business Leads Beat…

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Vedanta Ltd (SESGOA) | 105 Target : | 100 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : -5% Domestic Zinc Business Leads Beat… Result Update October 28, 2015 Rating matrix Rating : Hold Vedanta Ltd (SESGOA) | 105 Target : | 100 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : -5% Domestic zinc business leads beat…. • Vedanta reported a healthy set of Q2FY16 numbers wherein the What’s Changed? topline and EBITDA came in higher than our estimates. A better-than- Target Changed from | 95 to | 100 expected performance during the quarter was primarily driven by the EPS FY16E Changed from | 12.8 to | 13.0 robust performance delivered by HZL EPS FY17E Changed from | 19.4 to | 20.0 • The topline for the quarter came in at | 16560.9 crore (down 15.3% Rating Unchanged YoY and 2.7% QoQ) higher than our estimate of | 15272.5 crore Quarterly Performance • EBITDA for the quarter came in at | 3999.8 crore (down 36.8% YoY Q2FY16 Q2FY15 YoY (%) Q1FY16 QoQ (%) but up 0.2% QoQ), better than our estimate of | 3710.5 crore. The Revenue 16,560.9 19,549.4 -15.3 17,016.9 -2.7 EBITDA margin came in at 24.2% (our estimate: 24.3%) EBITDA 3,999.8 6,326.9 -36.8 3,992.0 0.2 • During the quarter, the company reported an exchange gain to the EBITDA (%) 24.2 32.4 -821 bps 23.5 69 bps tune of | 494 crore. Hence, the subsequent PAT for the period was at Rep.PAT 974.0 1,619.3 -39.8 866.0 12.5 | 974 crore (our estimate: | 521 crore) Muted aluminium prices to limit benefits of cost rationalisation… Key Financials (|Crore) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E During Q2FY16, due to lower power costs and alumina cost, Balco’s Net Sales 65733 73364 71864 80085 aluminium CoP sequentially declined by US$112/tonne (from EBITDA (Core) 20360 22045 18191 21941 US$1837/tonne in Q1FY16 to US$1725/tonne in Q2FY16). The company Adj Net Profit (Attrib) 6466 5873 3859 5938 has guided for a further cost reduction of ~US$200/tonne in Balco. Adj EPS (|) 21.8 19.8 13.0 20.0 During the quarter, VAL’s aluminium CoP stayed flattish sequentially. z Going forward, aluminium’s CoP is likely to move downwards in the Valuation summary backdrop of declining alumina prices. Even though the cost saving FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E initiatives augur well, we believe cost rationalisation will have limited PE (x) 4.8 5.3 8.1 5.2 benefit as LME has further declined to US$1450/tonne during end- Target PE (x) 4.6 5.0 7.7 5.0 October 2015 (Q2FY16 LME aluminium average was at US$1591/tonne). EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 4.5 5.3 4.1 P/BV (x) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 Re-emphasises cost saving target; cuts capex guidance RoNW (%) 8.9 10.9 6.9 9.9 The management re-emphasised the US$1.3 billion cost savings RoCE (%) 8.8 11.3 8.5 10.8 programme over the next four years. This was broken down into production cost (US$800 million) & marketing expenses (US$ 500 million). Stock data Of this, US$147 million has been achieved in H1FY16 with a similar Particular Amount quantum (US$150 million) set to be achieved in H2FY16 as well. Vedanta Market Capitalisation | 30540 Crore has also optimised its capital expenditure for returns at lower commodity Debt (FY15) (Actual - A) | 77752 Crore price assumptions by reducing FY16 capex guidance by 30% to US$700 Cash, Liquid Invests (FY15) (A) | 46212 Crore million from US$1 billion earlier. FY17 capex stands at US$1 billion. EV | 62080 Crore 52 week H/L 264/77 Weakness in commodity prices weighs; maintain HOLD… Equity capital | 296.5 Crore The healthy performance from HZL aided Vedanta’s Q2FY16 Face value | 1 performance. HZL reported a healthy Q2FY16 performance on the back of better-than-expected sales volumes and lower-than-expected cost of Price performance (%) production (CoP). The copper business also reported a stable Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M performance wherein the smelter operated at high capacity utilisation Hindustan Zinc 11.1 -2.9 -5.1 -3.4 while Tc/Rc and acid realisations remained strong. During the quarter, Sesa-Sterlite 9.7 -20.8 -48.8 -57.9 while healthy cost saving measures were also taken in Vedanta’s Hindalco Ind 19.6 -21.9 -34.9 -42.8 aluminium businesses, a sharp drop in LME and premiums is adversely impacting its financial and operational performance. A muted PLF (32% in Research Analyst Q2FY16) in Jharsuguda 2400 MW power plant also remains an area of Dewang Sanghavi concern. We have a positive view on the company’s domestic zinc [email protected] business (HZL) on account of strong underlying fundamentals. However, we have a cautious view on the company due to the huge debt pile and a skewed EBITDA profile. Over the short to medium term horizon, the current scenario of muted commodity prices is likely to weigh on the financial performance of the company. We value the company using SOTP valuation and arrive at a target price of | 100. We have a HOLD recommendation on the stock. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis Q2FY16 Q2FY16E Q2FY15 YoY (%) Q1FY16 QoQ (%) Comments Topline came in better than our estimate on the back of better- Revenue 16,560.9 15,272.6 19,549.4 -15.3 17,016.9 -2.7 than-expected sales volume Other Income 721.1 982.8 686.1 5.1 893.4 NM Other income came in lower than our estimate Raw Material Expense 5,947.7 5,275.5 6,646.2 -10.5 5,642.0 5.4 Employee Expense 719.2 720.5 728.8 -1.3 708.8 1.5 Employee expense came in line with our estimate Power & Fuel 2,245.1 1,983.4 2,110.6 6.4 2,756.5 -18.6 Other operating Expenses 3,649.1 3,582.7 3,736.9 -2.4 3,917.5 -6.9 EBITDA 3,999.8 3,710.5 6,326.9 -36.8 3,992.0 0.2 EBITDA came in higher than our estimate EBITDA Margin (%) 24.2 24.3 32.4 -821 bps 23.5 69 bps EBITDA margin came in higher than our estimate Depreciation 1,660.2 1,760.4 2,003.3 -17.1 1,717.5 -3.3 Depreciation expense came in lower than our estimate Interest 1,418.1 1,391.7 1,471.6 -3.6 1,357.8 4.4 Interest expense came in marginally higher than our estimate Exchange gain 494.0 0.0 -169.7 -391.1 254.6 94.0 The company reported exchange gain during the quarter PBT 2,136.6 1,541.1 3,707.8 -42.4 2,064.7 LP Tax Outgo 204.0 308.2 560.1 -63.6 352.5 -42.1 PAT 1,932.6 1,232.8 3,147.7 -38.6 1,712.2 LP Minority Interest & others 958.6 711.8 1,528.5 -37.3 846.3 13.3 Attributable PAT 974.0 521.0 1,619.3 -39.8 866.0 LP Reported PAT came in higher than our estimate Key Metrics HZL, Zinc Sales (tonne) 217,000 195,463 142,000 52.8 180,000 20.6 Zinc (India) sales volume came in higher than our estimates HZL, Lead Sales (tonne) 40,000 32,372 32,000 25.0 29,000 37.9 Lead (India) sales volume came in higher than our estimates Zinc international production volume came in lower than our Zinc Int, Zinc-lead production (tonne) 63,000 65,000 79,000 -20.3 70,000 -10.0 estimate Copper Production (tonne) 94,000 95,000 66,000 42.4 98,000 -4.1 Copper production came broadly in line with our estimae Aluminium Production (tonne) 233,000 225,000 203,000 14.8 232,000 0.4 Aluminium production broadly came in line with our estimate Eletricity Sales (million units) 2,718 2,750 2,599 4.6 3,070 -11.5 Electricity sales came broadly in line with our estimate Change in estimates FY16E FY17E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 71597 72244 0.9 77453 80503 3.9 Revised estimate upwards EBITDA 17491 18191 4.0 18872 21941 16.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 24.4 25.2 80 bps 24.4 27.3 290 bps PAT 3793 3859 1.7 5750 5938 3.3 EPS (|) 12.8 13.0 1.8 19.4 20.0 3.3 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E HZL, Zinc Sales (tonne) 800368 818885 769505 802425 Upward revised estimate due to better than expected sales volume of Q2FY16 HZL, Lead Sales (tonne) 139906 157250 124875 133200 Upward revised estimate due to better than expected sales volume of Q2FY16 Silver sales(kgs) 379713 440300 362600 372960 Upward revised estimate due to better than expected sales volume of Q2FY16 Copper Production (tonne) 372600 372600 372600 372600 Maintained estimates Aluminium Production (tonne) 900000 962500 900000 962500 Maintained estimates Eletricity Sales (million units) 14338 15316 14338 15316 Maintained estimates LME Zinc (US$/tonne) 1900 1900 1800 1800 Upward revised estimate LME Lead (US$/tonne) 1750 1750 1700 1700 Upward revised estimate LME Aluminium (US$/tonne) 1700 1850 1750 1850 Maintained FY17E estimates LME Copper (US$/tonne) 5750 6000 5750 6000 Maintained estimates USD:INR 63.5 63.5 63.0 63.0 Marginally upward revised Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Company Analysis Hindustan Zinc (HZL) • HZL reported a healthy set of Q2FY16 numbers wherein the topline, EBITDA and PAT came in higher than our estimates.
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