Exclusive: SAS raid pictures issue 201 | december 2012 december 201 | issue

www.prospect-magazine.co.uk december 2012 | £4.50 The best is yet the best is yet to come to yet is best the to come bill emmott

Shadow over Europe ANTONY BEEVOR Incompetent Cameron DOUGLAS CARSWELL Hollande’s blindness CHRISTINE OCKRENT China’s new chief JON HUNTSMAN Mythic Kate Moss JOY LO DICO

vs fiction p prize ISSN 1359-5024 ritchett 12

9 771359 502057

Our fund managers’ most useful tool No. 8: A briefcase

Over the past year, we interviewed the management of hundreds of listed companies across the UK.

Dunedin Income Growth Investment Trust Stocks and Shares ISA and Share Plan

No matter how well-known a company is, there’s no The trust is available through the Share Plan, tax-efficient substitute for getting to know it on your own terms. ISA or ISA transfer. So when we are selecting leading UK companies for No recommendation is made, positive or otherwise, Dunedin Income Growth – we go and scrutinise every regarding the ISA or Share Plan. The value of tax benefits company ourselves. We interview the management, talk depends on individual circumstances and the favourable to its competitors and take the time to determine if tax treatment for ISAs may not be maintained. this is really the sort of company we are looking for. If you have any doubts about the suitability of any We seek companies with talented people, a powerful investment for your needs, please consult an independent business and a commitment to shareholders. Also financial adviser. companies that can deliver strong and rising dividends – not just today, but well into the future. Request a brochure: 0500 00 40 00 Do remember that the value of shares and the income www.invtrusts.co.uk from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount invested. So if you are looking to the UK stock market for a healthy income, leave the legwork to us – and Dunedin Income Growth.

Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1YG, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Telephone calls may be recorded. Please quote DIGIT PM 02

1112 Prospect Mag DIGIT PM 02.indd 1 05/11/2012 15:53 prospect december 2012 3 Foreword Reinventing America 2 Bloomsbury Place, London wc1a 2qa Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive Bronwen Maddox Editor at large David Goodhart Deputy editor James Elwes This was the election that showed the world—and Americans Politics editor James Macintyre Books editor David Wolf themselves—the scale of the changes now reshaping the Creative director David Killen Production editor Jessica Abrahams United States. Huge demographic shifts, even if long Online editor Daniel Cohen Editorial assistants Tom Bailey, Musab foreseen, took on hard numerical form at the ballot box and Younis, Annalies Winny began to recolour the political map. America’s first black Publishing President & co-founder Derek Coombs president was re-elected because more of its people than Publisher David Hanger ever are Hispanic, and more of them young. Circulation marketing director Jamie Wren Digital marketing: Tim De La Salle These changes are good for the United States, and reason Director of sales Iain Adams 020 7255 1934 Advertising sales manager to argue that reports of its decline are premature (see Bill Dan Jefferson 020 7255 1934 Finance manager Pauline Joy Emmott, p28). The stark division into red and blue states Editorial advisory board which has paralysed national politics for more than a decade is shattering under David Cannadine, Clive Cowdery, AC Grayling, Peter Hall, John Kay, Peter Kellner, the force of shifts in the population (seeP eter Kellner, p33). That is one answer Nader Mousavizadeh, Toby Mundy, Robin to fears that Washington gridlock is making it impossible for any president to Niblett, Jean Seaton Associate editors govern the world’s richest country and its most powerful advocate of democracy. Hephzibah Anderson, Tom Chatfield, America has one of the youngest populations of any in the industrialised world, James Crabtree, Andy Davis, Edward Docx, David Edmonds, Sam Knight, Ian Irvine, a huge advantage as its economy comes out of recession (see Google’s new Sam Leith, Emran Mian, Elizabeth Pisani, Wendell Steavenson, James Woodall “wearable computers” for one example of innovation, p58). Meanwhile, the surge Contributing editors in ethnic populations is forcing it to be more open to the world. Philip Ball, Anthony Dworkin, Josef Joffe, Anatole Kaletsky, Michael Lind, Joy Lo Any party which does not recognise that is dead. The single sentence that Dico, Erik Tarloff most hurt Mitt Romney’s campaign was not about firing workers, or looking Annual subscription rates UK £49; Student £27 through “binders full of women,” although those remarks have earned him extra Europe £55; Student £32.50 Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 lines in the history books—and incredulous volumes on the internet. It was in Prospect Subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, the primaries, when he mused that children of illegal immigrants might consider Kent Science Park, Sittingbourne, me9 8gu Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 “self-deportation.” Fax 01795 414 555 Email [email protected] True, America is still deeply divided. Not only do many Republicans hate Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe Cheques payable to Prospect Publishing President Barack Obama—really hate him—but many Democrats competed Ltd. Subscription refunds must be made in during the campaign to pronounce how disappointed they were in him. writing to Prospect within four weeks of a new order or renewal, and are subject to an Sometimes it seemed like a race to see which candidate was least disliked. administration charge of £15. No refunds are paid on quarterly subscriptions. Neither said much about how to cut the looming budget deficits, or healthcare for the elderly, the US’s greatest vulnerability, and the impetus for predictions The views represented in this magazine are not necessarily those of Prospect Publishing of its decline (see Jon Huntsman on the chance to rewrite relations with China, Ltd. Best endeavours have been taken in all cases to represent faithfully the views of all p16). Nor was either keen on bailing out the eurozone or rescuing Syria—the real contributors and interviewees. The publisher accepts no responsibility for errors, “pivot” in the US’s focus is towards its own problems, away from those of others. omissions or the consequences thereof. All the same, America’s strengths are clear, at least in comparison with Newstrade distribution Comag Specialist, Tavistock Road, others. As Antony Beevor writes (p36), Europe, gripped by a financial crisis West Drayton, ub7 7qe, Tel: 01895 433716 that threatens its hold on democracy, is still in the shadow of the second world Images Cover image: KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/Rex war. Christine Ockrent (p17) argues that Fran�ois Hollande fails to understand Features how France is losing its place in Europe. Japan, as Andy Davis reports (p50), is Cartoons by: Grizelda, PC Vey, Pete Dredge, Naf, Joseph Farris, Roger Latham, Paul becoming a place where many people cannot afford to leave their parents’ home Wood, Bob. or marry—a warning for China, as well as Europe. ISSN: 13595024 Huge internal change now gives Obama the chance to begin to solve the country’s greatest problems at home. If it is more inward looking as a result, that is the price of reinvention on the grand scale. TAILOR-MADE TRAVEL Luxury leather goods and accessories hand crafted in the United Kingdom

Canvas and Leather Bags for the Elegant Traveller www.ettinger.co.uk Tel: +44 (0)20 8877 1616

Ettinger Map Ad Prospect 275x210.indd 1 8/10/12 3:55 PM prospect december 2012 5 Contents December 2012

This month Features Arts & Books 8 If I ruled the world edwina currie 28 The best is yet to come 70 The shrinking screen 10 Recommends American decline is overstated Last chance saloon for film. stephanie zacharek 12 Diary bill emmott

14 Letters Thank Fox for that How not to campaign peter kellner Opinions 16 China’s ambitious new chief jon huntsman

73 From Plato to the credit crunch A flawed history of political thought. mark mazower

75 Cultural hallucination Kate Moss, blank slate. joy lo dico 36 Europe’s long shadow 17 Hollande’s Brussels problem Could the eurozone reject democracy? christine ockrent antony beevor 18 Wealthy pensioners paul johnson 18 Incompetent Cameron douglas carswell 76 The year in film plus stephen collins’s cartoon strip. francine stock 19 Aid is a poor answer to poverty 77 The year in books ian birrell sam leith 20 The UN’s own goal on schools clare lockhart 22 The complacent 1980s BBC Fiction tom carver 44 Hanging by a thread 80 Singing dumb 23 Universities reborn The politically savvy SAS martina devlin martin rees Exclusive pictures james elwes Winner of the 2012 VS Pritchett Memorial Prize, supported by Prospect Life 46 Saving Mrs Smith The NHS needs competition. 62 In praise of the cliché philip collins Thinking inside the box. Endgames hephzibah anderson 50 Generation J 84 The generalist 64 Watches Japan’s Parasite Singles. didymus andy davis Tell more than the time. 84 Enigmas & puzzles stephen bayley 54 Let them learn English ian stewart 66 Whisky India’s language wars hurt the poor. 85 The Prospect List What’s in a name? zareer masani Our pick of events alice lascelles 58 Reality is not enough 88 The way we were 68 Investment Google’s goggles. Terrible Christmases. Food is bad for you. christine rosen ian irvine andy davis

The App If you’re a subscriber, get our app FREE at www. prospectmagazine.co.uk/apps. If you’re not, you can buy single Applestore issues, a subscription or back issues. Download the app at the Appstore or Android Store—search for “Prospect Magazine.”

Android Store

10 prospect December 2012 Prospect recommends Five things to do this month

good idea to reverse his fortunes. Theatre When his best friend Billy, an actor and part-time dognapper, steps in In the Republic of Happiness to help by stealing a dog belonging Royal Court, 6th December to 19th to a vicious LA gangster, Marty January is up to his neck in “material” for Martin Crimp is a lurking play- his screenplay, usefully entitled wright. His characters lurk in the “Seven Psychopaths.” margins of misery. And his repu- Bringing a playwright’s ear tation lurks in the wings of expect- to the dialogue and an ironist’s ancy, even after all these years. A point of view to the plot, McDon- play such as Attempts on Her Life agh is sufficiently steeped in (1997), which challenged conven- popular movie culture for him tions of theatrical form and narra- to warrant the accolade of the tive, has become a modern classic Thinking Man’s Tarantino. Con- in Europe and a touchstone text in sequently the baggage brought to contemporary theatre studies. the screen by the likes of Woody Crimp’s latest is a dystopian Harrelson, Sam Rockwell and triptych for Christmas with an Christopher Walken is more of unseasonal twist. In the first part, a help than a hindrance. A black a family gathering is interrupted comedy with industrial quanti- by a sudden arrival; in the second, Colin Farrell, Christopher Walken and Sam Rockwell in Seven Psychopaths ties of gore, Seven Psychopaths there’s a reality TV take on our might lack the roguish charm runaway confessional culture; and scape of contemporary Amer- velopment, will present more than of In Bruges but it still manages then, in the third, the characters’ ica—will be screened to the live 200 pieces, some which have not to mix together different genres identities become fluid and things accompaniment of Glass’s score. been on show for over 30 years. with insolent flair. get very strange. Ascetic restraint collides with Taken together, they will illus- Neil Norman Crimp is an expert in the inse- the sensuous textures of voices trate 600 years of thinking about curities of modern speech, with and both natural and synthesised how we sit, eat, store and sleep. his own special line in taut atmos- instruments to create an immer- They include major works of pheres and ensemble patterns. sive sonic wonderland. decorative art: a medieval cas- Podcast He’s a genuine experimentalist, On the Saturday, 15th Decem- ket from northern Europe show- Social Science Bites sometimes infuriatingly obtuse, ber, the Philip Glass Ensemble— ing scenes from Tristan and Isolde; Available on iTunes now but always fascinating. He should the best specialist exponents of a painted corner cupboard made The format is simple: short inter- be well served, not only by direc- the composer’s work—will take by Chippendale for the legendary views with academics about a tor Dominic Cooke and mesmeric the lead in a concert that assem- 18th century actor David Garrick; subject in the social sciences. designer Miriam Buether, but also bles a collage of Glass’s music. a 300-year-old Mexican bureau- From Robert Shiller on behav- by a top cast including the emerg- The phasing, echoing patterns of bookcase covered in mother of ioural economics and Richard ing star of our subsidised stage, Music in 12 Parts, will sit alongside pearl. Heroes of modernism such Sennett on co-operation, to less Michelle Terry. the popular Glassworks, excerpts as Frank Lloyd Wright, Eileen familiar thinkers such as Avner Michael Coveney from chamber opera The Photog- Gray, Marcel Breuer and the de-Shalit on whether some cit- rapher and Glass’s soundtrack to Eames brothers are represented, ies have a distinct “spirit,” Social 1998 film The Truman Show. It’s a as well as less easily characterisa- Science Bites is an accessible programme that makes clear the ble geniuses, such as Italian Carlo introduction to a field that tack- Classical astonishing debt we owe to Glass. Mollino, whose Arabesque table les some of the biggest issues Philip Glass at 75 Without him our contemporary was partly inspired by a surrealist of our time. While some inter- Barbican, 14th to 15th December electronica, dance music, film drawing of a woman’s back. viewees are more engaging than America’s legendary minimal- and even computer game sound- Emma Crichton-Miller others, the questions remain ist composer turned 75 this year, tracks would sound very different. intelligent and pleasingly scepti- and the Barbican is marking the Alexandra Coghlan cal, often pre-empting one’s own occasion with a mini(malist) fes- “but what about?” objections. tival, giving us a rare oppor- Film More than a series of individ- tunity to look back over four Art Seven Psychopaths ually interesting episodes, these decades of experimental music- On release from 7th December podcasts add up to an enquiry making. The venue already Opening of the Dr Susan Weber Martin McDonagh’s latest film, into the nature of social science brought us Glass and Wilson’s Gallery for furniture Seven Psychopaths, is the follow- itself. What connects fields as opera-meditation Einstein on the V&A, from 1st December up to his cult hitmen-on-holi- diverse as anthropology, econom- Beach back in May, and now it’s the Up in an airy attic, beside the day comedy, In Bruges. Set in LA, ics and sociology, and in what turn of the composer’s music for restored ceramics galleries, the this begins like the kind of movie- sense is the subject really a sci- film and small ensemble. Victoria & Albert Museum will about-movies favoured by Char- ence? For the beginnings of an On 14th December, Godfrey this December open its first gal- lie Kaufman before swerving into answer, start with one of the best Reggio’s cult classic Koyaan- lery dedicated solely to furniture. genre territory like a truck whose episodes so far: the interview with isqatsi—a cinematic “tone poem” The Dr Susan Weber Gallery, part brakes have failed. Colin Farrell is genial polymath Rom Harré. whose visual music is the land- of the museum’s ambitious rede- Marty, a screenwriter who needs a David Wolf 107811_gbr_smb_nov_3b_4c_pcp_fp210x275_prospect_magazine_pr.ind107811_gbr_smb_noov_3b_4c_pcp_fp2100x2275_prospectt_magazine_pr.indd 1 11/5/1211/5/12 33:00:00 PMPM 12 prospect december 2012 Diary

Picking Cameron’s pollster In fact Why is there so much shadow box- ing over whether Lynton Crosby, According to the London lost property the Australian political operative, office, 87,356 umbrellas were lost will run the 2015 Tory general on the underground in 1934, when election campaign? In talking to records began. Last year, the figure journalists, David Cameron could was 7,798. not have been clearer about his en- London Review of Books, 27th thusiasm to co-opt Boris Johnson’s September election strategist. But there is one sticking point: whether Lynton’s The first fatality as a result of a car company will carry out the politi- accident was recorded on 31st cal polling for the campaign. August 1869 in Ireland. Election strategists make their History Today, 14th September money by commissioning cam- paign polling from their own com- In Japan, which has the world’s panies, and Lynton’s firm, Crosby second highest adoption rate, most Textor, might expect to do this. But of the country’s 80,000 annual that could put the prime minister adoptions are of adult men in their 20s and 30s, so they can take over in conflict with AndrewC ooper, his “The middle ground ain’t big enough for the both of us” director of political strategy. Coo- family businesses. per joined Downing Street from When the bank takes over from the Bletchley book gets the donor an e- BBC, 19th September Populus, a bespoke polling compa- Financial Services Authority in reg- book. £250 gets an e-book, a hard- ny which does the numbers for the ulating UK banks in April, he said, back, a tour of Bletchley Park, and On 18th April 1930, the BBC Tories at the moment. He is widely there will no longer be a tedious sausages and mash in Hut 4, where reported: “There is no news today,” expected to return before the next load of “box ticking” foisted upon Enigma codes were decrypted. and played piano music instead. election to repeat his 2010 election the City. This suggests a big change Forbes, 18th April role. Will bringing in Lynton cause in style, and even implies criticism No laughs, we’re Labour heartache in Team Cameron? of Adair Turner, FSA chief, and a Babies learn to see in 3D four rival for the top job. Unknown to many even in Labour, months after being born. Tears over childcare Ed Miliband has not one but two New Scientist, 20th June From Barak to Barack stand-up comedians as advisers. There could be Westminister tan- One is well known: Ayesha Haz- In 2009, ER departments at trums over childcare policy. Liz During Ehud Barak’s packed trip arika, a longtime Labour aide, now hospitals in America treated 97,908 Truss, the new Tory minister in to London just before the US elec- works for Harriet Harman but is trampoline-related injuries. charge of the brief, has long sup- tion, Israeli officials were audibly “borrowed” to come up with jokes American Academy of Pediatrics, ported radical deregulation, such anxious about President Barack and attack lines for PMQs. James 24th September as allowing childminders to care for Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia Morris, the Labour pollster who five children not three, and remov- and detachment from the Arab works for US-based Stan Green- A letter to Winston Churchill from ing the requirement for monitoring Spring. Now that the US elections berg, is less well-known but also has British admiral Lord Fisher may by Ofsted. Nick Clegg has declared are past, they are also braced for comedy pedigree—he was presi- contain the first recorded use of the that childcare provision is a prior- new EU criticism of Israel’s build- dent of the Cambridge Footlights, acronym OMG. ity, but is nervous of the gibe that ing on the West Bank and in East the university troupe. Sometimes New York Magazine, 7th August the coalition is backing “factory Jerusalem. Indeed, Alastair Burt, the pair are thrown together and farms” for babies. There are signs minister for the Middle East, is- told to come up with gags. Unkind Recruiters believe it is easier to place that Truss, one of the brightest of sued a sharp rebuke to the lat- souls might ask why the Labour a candidate who has a criminal the 2010 intake, may be soften- est Israeli announcement while leader doesn’t get bigger laughs. record than someone who has been ing her position, after talks with Obama’s victory speech was still unemployed for more than two years, her EU counterparts. But Labour playing across the world’s screens. Prospect at the border a survey showed. will home in on any tensions; Ed The Huffington Post, 18th Miliband wants to promote his Publishing enigma Raymond Tallis, the philosopher, September own package for the “squeezed An account of the wartime code- reports that his son Ben, working middle” as a key election issue. breakers of Bletchley Park is one of on a PhD, recently visited a Polish the latest offerings from Unbound, border detention centre at Prze- Bankers out of the box which funds books through crowd- mysl and was intrigued to see Pros- sourcing, and is attracting atten- pect in the guards’ reading room. Talking to the British Bankers’ As- tion amid the upheaval in publish- sociation, an influential group (if ing. Unbound, set up by, among The indefinable Letwin understandably defensive these others, John Mitchinson and Justin Oliver Letwin, asked to define the days), Paul Tucker made some Pollard, creators of the BBC show “Big Society” at a November meet- provocative remarks given that QI, enables authors to solicit cash ing of the Mile End Group, replied, he is a front runner to be the next online. If enough is raised, the book “can you define art in a sentence? “Whose body do you see yourself governor of the Bank of England. goes ahead. A £10 pledge to the Or Great Britain?” getting rid of in five years?”

14 prospect december 2012 Letters

Fight for survival tales could, but they might well lobby of the 1950s and 60s. I don’t areas, there was a swing to La- open people’s minds to heretofore think anyone disputes the link be- bour. This can and must be done I greatly enjoyed Robert Fry’s unimagined possibilities. tween smoking, heart disease and again. piece on the future of the special Daniel Dennett, professor of cancer. Jeremy Corbyn, Labour MP for forces (“Survival of the fittest,” philosophy at Tufts University Nigel Price Islington North November). It was a balanced and Cardiff authoritative piece that I agree The drugs debate I was a lifelong (61 years) Labour with. The article on drugs policy voter but did not vote for the party As we emerge from the 9/11 I agree with the argument by Peter provoked intense debate. See in 2010. The reason was articles wars, how special forces adapt in Lilley and Peter Hitchens that the www.prospectmagazine.co.uk exactly like Peter Kellner’s. The this slimmed-down and techni- use of drugs is more a moral than Labour party needs to believe in cally remote battlespace will be a health issue (“Drugs haze,” No- something and stick to it. If it is key not only to their survival but vember). Indeed, it was my pursu- The courageous choice a party that will say anything and also to their position in the inter- ing this line of reasoning that got sway any way to get votes then it national strategic framework that me sacked as chair of the Advisory Comparing EP Thompson with is not a party of principle. Lack will follow. Special forces are ex- Council on the Misuse of Drugs. Eric Hobsbawm (“A British inter- of principle has turned people panding to fight for their slice of My position was then, and is nationalist,” November), Ramach- against politics and politicians. the decreasing defence budget but now, that the focus on the health andra Guha says that in “moral” Richard Sage it is vital that they remain a strate- harms of cannabis and ecstasy, and terms Thompson was “the more Via the Prospect website gic asset, targeted enough not to the exaggeration of those harms, courageous man” because he left abandon the pursuit of excellence was a smokescreen as much to the Communist party over Hunga- The green solution that has enabled them to adapt avoid the moral debate as to jus- ry and Hobsbawm didn’t. Thomp- and survive both tactically and tify harsher penalties for political son was right to quit. But surely the Dieter Helm argues that gas has an politically in the past. They must benefit. T he reason politicians will mark of courage was staying in the important role to play in the UK’s resist the temptation to become a not engage in the moral debate is party and taking the shit, not leav- future (“The great gas debate,” Oc- one-stop convenience store with clear—they will lose it. ing to a chorus of approbation from tober), but he ignores biogas. lower quality products; they must The UK finances itself in part the liberal intelligentsia? Biogas from anaerobic diges- remain a sharply honed tool. through selling highly dangerous David Lipsey, House of Lords tion delivers the benefits of shale Andy McNab, former SAS drugs, alcohol and tobacco. To gas without the environmental sergeant and author of “Red deny people the choice of using a Labour’s wrong turn problems. It has the potential to Notice” safer alternative intoxicant such as deliver more than 10 per cent of cannabis is so morally wrong that In 1997, 13.5m people voted La- the UK’s domestic gas, creating Unimagined possibilities the debate would be lost before it bour to get rid of the Tories; 13 35,000 jobs. This is similar to re- has begun. years of new Labour leadership got cent estimates for shale gas, but as Over the years, Oliver Sacks has David Nutt, chair, Independent this figure down to 8.6m in 2010 it is renewable it can be produced published a series of fascinating Scientific Committee on Drugs (“Labour’s lost votes,” November). forever. studies of strange and wonderful Along the way, we had the con- Anaerobic digestion isn’t just a neuropsychological phenomena Whether drug use is seen as im- tracting out of public services, pri- source of renewable gas. The pro- (“Adventures on the edge of con- moral is a matter of opinion. The vatisation of some jobs and massive cess treats food and other organic sciousness,” November). None of issue of what to do about drug use PFI contracts in health and educa- waste, cutting methane emissions these are peer reviewed scientific is much easier, however. The aim tion, all of which significantly an- from landfill and farms. Critical case studies and some of them of drug policy is “drug control.” gered large numbers of Labour nutrients within this waste are also have been severely criticised by re- This can only mean control of the supporters. We had the war in Af- recycled back to the land. searchers for misrepresenting the trade; how and where drugs are ghanistan, the cosying up to Bush, Charlotte Morton, chief executive, phenomena described, but I think sold, and other measures, such as and the dishonesty and deception the Anaerobic Digestion and Biogas we do better to leave Sacks’s exag- a minimum age. Prohibition makes surrounding the Iraq war. Association gerations and oversimplifications any such controls illegal. Instead, Peter Kellner declares that the unchallenged, since they make it tries to control what we do with 20th-century contest between the Hairy situation such good stories and help to swell specific substances in the privacy ideologies of socialism and capi- the ranks of eager investigators. of our own homes. Such a policy is talism is over. The millions across In response to Sam Leith’s article Some of these will be disap- never going to work. Europe out of work because of the (“In defence of the smiley,” No- pointed to discover in their own There are two options: control, bankrupt economic ideologies of vember), when something I write research that things are more which means legalisation, or the the European central bank and could be taken as an insult, a mock, complicated than they had been anarchy of prohibition. the parallel policies of our own gov- a heresy, or an invitation to pistols led to expect, but so what? We Derek Williams ernment, mean there is every rel- at dawn, I am glad to have an easy can advise our students to keep Via the Prospect website evance to discussing why financial graphic at hand to make clear that the salt shaker handy when read- institutions are more powerful than I’m “just kidding”. So I add my (:-)> ing Sacks’s poetic accounts, and I read Peter Lilley’s article about the manufacturing industry, envi- (I have a beard.) count on them to supplement Peter Hitchens’s new book with ronmental lobbies or social causes. Ted Reynolds their reading with the rigorous concern. He is wrong to say it’s not The way back for Labour has Via the Prospect website scientific papers they never would an issue of health when there are to be leadership on social justice, have sought out otherwise. Such plenty of scientific studies to show equality and opportunity. In some Have your say: Email letters@ stories couldn’t have metaphysical it is exactly that. He adopts the parts of the country in 2010 where prospect-magazine.co.uk. More at: implications, any more than fairy same stance as the pro-smoking there had been progress in these www.prospectmagazine.co.uk THE MORTAL SEA MANY SUBTLE AGE OF FRACTURE FLORENCE AND Fishing the Atlantic in CHANNELS DANIEL T. RODGERS BAGHDAD the Age of Sail In Praise of Potential “It’s hard to think of a work of Renaissance Art and W. JEFFREY BOLSTER Literature American intellectual history, Arab Science DANIEL LEVIN BECKER HANS BELTING “Chasing the currents leading written in the last quarter to today’s serious fish- “Many Subtle Channels is a of a century, that is more “Belting at his best writes stock depletion . . . Bolster memoir of [Levin Becker’s] likely to remain permanently with an infectious, ingenious braids marine biology association with the Oulipo influential.” intellectual excitement.” into a narrative driven by . . . a self-selecting (or divinely —Michael O’Brien, —Julian Bell, Times Literary Supplement London Review of Books courageous chancers, such selected) group of people for as fifteenth-century John whom language is a network Paper / Belknap 978-0-674-06436-2 / £14.95 “[A] lively and erudite book.” Cabot and unnamed hordes of puzzles, hidden messages

—Alexander Marr, of fishermen to argue that the and delightful accidents.” Times Literary Supplement —Lauren Elkin, precautionary approach is key Belknap / 978-0-674-05004-4 Times Literary Supplement to heading of collapse.” £25.00 —Nature 978-0-674-06577-2 / £19.95 Belknap / 978-0-674-04765-5 £22.95

HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS | www.hup.harvard.edu | blog: harvardpress.typepad.com | tel: +44 (0) 20 3463 2350 16 prospect december 2012 Opinions China’s new chief 16 France’s Europe problem 17 Wealthy pensioners 18 Incompetent Cameron 18 Stop giving aid to India 19 The UN’s own goal on primary education 20 Why the BBC looked the other way 22 Universities reborn 23

politics—a pretty tough business. He’s Jon Huntsman worked the party—and the “princeling” class (the influential descendants of senior Com- New leaders, new chance munist party officials). He is 59, confident, personable—and humble and serene in his As China’s new president takes power, the US has a approach to problem solving, in the Confu- rare rare window to redraw the relationship cian tradition. In all my interaction with him, when he was vice-president, he was engaging and on top of his brief. On 8th November, as the 18th Party Congress property rights. He will also have a little more operational gathered in Beijing to anoint a new president, What will he do? It will take him six flexibility than Hu Jintao has had, as the China entered a new era. The past three and months to a year to consolidate power. But he Politiburo Standing Committee will proba- a half decades have been defined by the influ- has reform in his DNA; he has been exposed bly shrink from nine members to seven. Hu ence of Deng Xiaoping. Deng, who came to to the most economically forward- had few allies, was very hemmed-in and had power in 1978, opened up the diplomatic door looking parts of China, in Fujian to rule by consensus. between China and the world—and the eco- and Zhejiang provinces and in Xi’s instincts will be to preserve the nomic door, too. A generation ago, China Shanghai. I’ve seen over the party. But that will mean giving more had an economy about the size of Argen- last five years that he’s a very flexibility, on the internet for a start. tina’s; by 2020, judged by sheer output, it adept operator in the rough China is not yet at boiling point— could have the largest in the world. But Deng and tumble of 212 degrees Fahrenheit, as we say in also emphasised the primacy of the Commu- h i g h - l eve l the US—but it is pretty damn close. nist party; there was no other competition for C h i n e s e I look out at 600m to 700m internet domestic policy making. users, and 90m bloggers, some We are now entering the Xi Jinping era. with an audience of 100m, As I saw during my time as US ambassador making hard-hitting com- to China between 2009 and 2011, Xi faces ments about corruption. a very different list of issues to his prede- You’ve got to imagine cessors—and he will have to tackle them that there’s a lot of dis- immediately. He will have to address the content building. reality of China’s role on the world stage, Xi understands including the need for it to deal directly that. China is with the United States. He will have to going to have to confront head-on the fact that China is recognise that less open than in years past. For 10 years, the internet is a there has been very little movement— tool for communica- indeed, there has been backsliding on tion, for education, and so far, human rights and civil society. Mean- they haven’t. while, China has become more asser- Xi is taking power at a point of slow- tive in the region, with the growth ing economic growth. The figure that of its military spending and its China declares for growth in 2012 is claims to disputed islands. bound to be over 7 per cent; Hu couldn’t He will also have to confront turn over power with a number less than the rise of powerful special eco- seven. But next year the Chinese leader- nomic interests. He is one of the few ship will face the reality that their four tril- people in China who can deal with lion yuan ($640bn) economic stimulus went the state-owned enterprises, which partly on “roads to nowhere.” Non-perform- have been able to write their own script ing loans will begin to show up in the banks, for the past 10 years; he will have to get both the state banks and the underground tough on their abuse of intellectual lenders known as “black banks,” which pre- fer to work on projects with the princelings. Deft footwork: Xi Jinping kicks a The balance sheet is strong enough for them ball during a visit to Dublin’s Croke to muddle through the next few years, but

Park Stadium in February they’re aware of the fragility. r Moi d REUTERS/Davi © prospect december 2012 opinions 17

The things that would break the party in founding mother of the Union, the home- the EU has been the completion of the sin- the long term are low growth, inflation, and land of Monnet, Schumann and Delors, gle market. The Germans are preoccupied economic uncertainty. So, in regional affairs, and its second largest economy? Nothing with the primary role of their parliament, while Xi will remind the party that sover- is possible in Europe without France, Hol- with which Merkel has skilfully governed eignty is still a guiding principle, there will lande declared. True. But nothing is possi- throughout the crisis. But the French still be red lines that they won’t cross. There is no ble in France without Europe either—and believe in the supremacy of the state. economic gain from entering a conflict over Europe’s capital today is Berlin. For half a century, as European uni- the Spratly Islands (in the South China sea, New to Brussels, with no government fication progressed, the French felt con- claimed by China). experience but a background in party poli- vinced that the EU would turn out like a The Obama administration has kept up a ticking, Hollande claimed victory after his larger France, with a semi-protected inter- good, consistent level of engagement. But the first European summit in June. Supported nal market, strong regulation and a consol- Chinese read our economic weakness here at by Mario Monti, the prime minister of Italy, idated welfare system. Paradoxically the home as something they can use at the nego- he ensured that a chapter about economic push towards a more intergovernmental tiating table, and we need to repair that. The growth was added to the fiscal compact approach has led Paris into isolation. Not US-China relationship is now of global signif- imposed by Merkel. Lionel Jospin, France’s one single member state shares a belief in icance; it isn’t an ordinary bilateral relation- last socialist prime minister, had similarly the towering role of the state in driving the ship. The only way to manage it is directly been granted an addendum to the Lisbon economy. France has been losing the ide- between the heads of state. treaty, without any concrete results. Such ological battle in Brussels, as well as key But all kinds of commercial and cultural is the French obsession with semantics that positions within its bureaucracy. ties are helpful. My wife and I are both Chi- they tend to think the problem is somehow It could have been Britain’s silent vic- nese speakers, and our daughter, now 13, solved once the proper wording is forged. tory, a revenge over the integrationist, whom we adopted from China, was well Five months later, an appraisal of Hol- French-driven machinery London has known through the Chinese media when we lande’s performance came from a fellow always dreaded: a Union with 27 members, were living there, along with our six other socialist in Berlin. Basking in the success of where national interests were traded in the children, another of whom we adopted from his “Agenda 2010”—reforms that cost him Council, not subject to communal goals set India. It was helpful, as a bridge, in putting his job but which account for the current up by the Commission. But the euro cri- across a positive story about relations strength of the German economy—Gerhard sis, unfolding spasmodically under Ber- between the US and China. Schröder, the former chancellor, did not lin’s short-term guidance, has changed the The good news is that we have a rare mince his words. The French must come to course of events and dramatically altered opening to redraw the relationship between terms with reality, he told me recently at the the power balance within the union. Euro- our countries. They have a new leader, and Berggruen conference on governance. So far, zone states are bound together by a new we have a re-elected president. We haven’t the wrong signals have been sent and soon process, which aims to correct its original updated the relationship since the 1979 Tai- the financial markets will pass judgment. flaws: the central bank will act like one; a wan Relations Act. We’ve now got two or The French economy is in trouble. common monetary policy will lead to co- three years to do that. Unemployment is growing, as is the trade ordinated economic policies, a banking Jon Huntsman was US ambassador to China from deficit; the car industry is on the verge of union and, sooner or later, fiscal harmoni- 2009 to 2011, governor of Utah, and a candidate collapse; and confidence is low. But the sation. Britain is out of the process, its iso- for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 government’s policies correspond to a pre- lation not all that splendid. It is difficult to crisis ideological package rather than a see how British interests in the City and in realistic assessment of the situation: retire- the single market could not be impacted by ment at 60; no change to the 35-hour work- increased eurozone integration. ing week; no reduction to business rates or London is drifting away, Paris is out of improvement of labour flexibility; massive focus and Berlin leads Europe. For its own fiscal reform hitting the rich and middle comfort, as well as vested European inter- class without any incentives to stimulate ests, Germany doesn’t want to stand alone. consumption. As a Brussels expert told me, But it is getting used to it. For Europe’s and these reforms amount to “too many small France’s sake, Hollande better get his act Christine Ockrent steps in the wrong direction.” together. However, the target of a public deficit of Christine Ockrent is a journalist and writer Blind in Brussels 3 per cent of GDP by 2013 and the ratifi- based in Paris cation of the fiscal treaty in spite of reluc- France’s EU problem tance within the parliamentary majority are promising signs. As to the structural A few hours after taking office on 15thM ay, reforms that Berlin wants, the government the French president François Hollande insists they should be considered over the rushed to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, next five years—the duration of Hollande’s the German chancellor. He had not yet mandate—and not in the short term. Con- appointed a prime minister, but there was fronted with a daunting new report, the no time to waste. For all the parochialism government has just announced a battery of the French presidential campaign, dur- of measures, including a VAT increase for ing which both candidates debated only 2014 and a reduction of charges on busi- domestic issues, Europe could not wait. ness—a mellow version of the report’s During his campaign, Hollande prom- recommendations. ised he would never surrender to Berlin; At the heart of the matter lie the deep he would twist Merkel’s arm and rene- cultural differences within the European gotiate the fiscal austerity pact to which Union. The British are obsessed with mar- Sarkozy had agreed. Isn’t France the kets: indeed their main rationale for being in “That’s OK—my ringtone is a hacking cough.” 18 opinions prospect december 2012

pension is subject to the “triple lock,” rising There is further unfairness in current gener- by whichever is highest of the consumer price ations of workers supporting generous occu- index, average earnings and 2.5 per cent. pational and state provision for retirees when Third, and most importantly, those cur- they cannot expect similar support. rently in their 60s are probably enjoying Finally, there is a danger of expectations the high tide of occupational pension provi- becoming misaligned with reality. The fact sion. Most have some income—sometimes is that most people under the age of 50 will Paul Johnson substantial amounts—from a final salary have to work through a large part of their 60s scheme. Future generations, other than if their own pensions are going to be adequate Wealthy pensioners those employed in the public sector, will not and if the whole pension system is going to be enjoy such good fortune. sustainable. With the majority of recent gen- Unfairness is growing But does any of this matter? Indeed, is it erations retiring well before 65 we need to not a cause for celebration that within two learn fast that their experience should not be Recent research suggesting that around generations we have moved from a situation a guide to our own expectations. a million people over the age of 65 live in close to mass poverty among British pension- Paul Johnson is director of the Institute for households with wealth of more than £1m ers to one in which an increasing number are Fiscal Studies again raises the question of whether Britain very comfortable? has a problem of intergenerational inequity. It should be no surprise that those in Do older generations have, and are they eat- their 60s are, on average, wealthier than ing, too much of the national cake? any other group. They have had a lifetime As a group they are better off, relative to to build up assets, and only after retirement those of working age, than ever before. Pen- will they start to run them down. Some con- sioner incomes are at a record high compared cerns about intergenerational equity seem with average incomes and continue to rise. misplaced. After all, these assets will largely This reflects three major policy decisions. be passed down to the next generation. But First, the last Labour government spent there are reasons for concern. Douglas Carswell billions increasing means-tested benefits for Even though the current stock of housing the poorest pensioners. Pensioner poverty will eventually move down the generations, Bad government has fallen to historically low levels as a result. many younger people will be locked out of In contrast with its policy on poorer working the property market for longer than before; Incompetence rules age families, the current government is not a reflection of grossly inadequate rates of clawing back any of that additional spending. house building. It could have been so different. A Conserv- Second, the universal and contributory In addition, the assets that this genera- ative-Liberal Democrat coalition not only elements of state provision are better for this tion holds are not shared equally. The ben- ought to have worked—it could have been generation of retirees than for earlier, and efits to subsequent generations from having transformative. By fusing together Conserv- potentially for later, ones. Some are benefit- had wealthy parents or grandparents will be ative ideas about the free market with the ing from the state additional pension, which large, as will the costs of being born into a less Lib Dem tradition of political radicalism, will fall for those retiring in the future. All wealthy family. The concentration of wealth the government could have become a water- have benefited from winter fuel payments in this generation is likely to lead to inequal- shed administration. But it has been noth- and other universal bonuses, and the basic ity in the next, and lower social mobility. ing of the sort. prospect december 2012 opinions 19

The lack of anything new has been most power was devolved away from Whitehall? mering it received following Mukherjee’s obvious when it comes to economic policy. It seems to have gone out. If anything, the comments, has indicated that the current Far from trying anything bold or different, “Sir Humphreys” who run the civil service tranche of aid to India—£1.6bn over eight we have ended up with Continuity Brown, the now have more say over public policy now years, ending in 2015—will be the last. As macroeconomic setting virtually unchanged than ever before. the government reacts to voters’ concern from when Gordon was at the helm. During It is, I would argue, not only the con- and seeks to boost the effectiveness of aid, it the five years of this parliament the govern- straints of coalition that explain the lack is also scaling back handouts to other thriv- ment will borrow more than Gordon Brown of radicalism. It is also the influence of the ing middle-income countries such as Indo- managed in 13 years. Just like under Brown, Whitehall machine. nesia and Vietnam. the treasury has looked to monetary stimulus Where ministers came to office with a This might seem to make sense. Poor to produce growth, but ignored supply-side clear sense of what they wanted to change, people live in poor places, right? But stud- reform. “Unfunded” tax cuts continue to be and an idea of how to make it happen, they ies by Andy Sumner, an increasingly influ- ruled out, yet “unfunded” borrowing never have sometimes managed to get their way. ential economist at King’s College, London, seems to be. Others have found themselves frustrated by show the flaw in this approach. He reveals Just as the treasury remains impregna- a mandarinate adept at playing the coalition that, while two decades ago 93 per cent of ble to new ideas, Whitehall assumptions partners off against each other. the world’s poorest people lived in the poor- about Europe—and Britain’s role in it— Too often, ministers have acted as est nations, three-quarters now live in mid- remain unchanged. While the eurozone departmental spokesmen, ready to defend a dle-income countries. lurches from one bailout to the next, gov- status quo that does not work and drift along Partly, this reflects astonishing growth in ernment policy has been about how to per- with Whitehall’s ingrained assumptions. the developing world. Almost 30 countries petuate the problem rather than extricate Douglas Carswell is Conservative MP for have gained middle-income status this cen- ourselves from it. While the non-western Clacton author of “The End of Politics and the tury, with Zambia and Ghana among the world grows rapidly, the finest minds in gov- Birth of iDemocracy” (Biteback) latest success stories. Yet for all the stellar ernment are fixated on remaining part of a growth enjoyed by a country such as India, bankrupt, stagnant club. according to Sumner’s findings it remains Instead of change, too often the coalition home to more than one-third of the world’s has ended up perpetuating the status quo. most impoverished citizens. Another study We can’t go on like this, you might think. found more poor people living in eight of But thus far, we have. its 28 states than in the 26 poorest African Nothing is ever entirely black and white. countries combined. There are some transformational changes As the number of poor countries dwin- being made. Michael Gove has driven dles, the ideas behind western aid policies through bold reforms that will reshape edu- Ian Birrell look increasingly outdated. A more perti- cation. Iain Duncan Smith’s work may lift nent indicator than India’s space programme millions out of dependency. Francis Maude’s is that, while it was home to just two dollar- initiatives on open data are magnificent. Target inequality billionaires in the mid-1990s, it now has 46, But far from making politicians more in Aid is a poor answer to poverty many relying on government connections to tune with what the public wants, in 2011, the amass their fortunes. Their combined net coalition gave the people a referendum on Should Britain give aid to India? For a hefty worth is equal to roughly 10 per cent of the the alternate vote system, a variety of elec- majority of people in this country, the answer country’s GDP—the same share of national toral reform that very few outside Westmin- is clear: it is absurd to keep handing our wealth as the 424 billionaires in the US. ster wanted. money to one of the world’s biggest econo- The richest of these is the energy tycoon The idea of open primaries, whereby mies. India is a fast-growing, middle-income Mukesh Ambani, whose 27-storey, billion- candidates to become MP would be chosen nation rich enough to lavish money ($1.3bn dollar home in Mumbai stands as a towering locally, rather than being imposed from out- by next year) on a space programme and to symbol of inequality in India. Contrast this side, and which would have made MPs prop- have its own aid agency with a budget worth brash modernist palace dominating that erly answerable to the electorate, has been $11.3bn over the next five years. wondrous city’s skyline with the thousands quietly dropped. The proposal for a mecha- So India has become the prime battle- of people living on the pavements below, nism to allow the recall of MPs has been so ground in the dispute over whether Britain unable to afford even a shanty home.O ne in mangled that if it goes ahead it will actually should spend rising amounts on aid while five of the 13m Mumbaikars live below the strengthen, rather than weaken, the execu- enduring austerity at home. This booming poverty line. tive’s control over parliament. nation remains the biggest recipient of bilat- It is a similar story in other middle- Despite all the lip service paid to local- eral development assistance. The row, which income countries. After the United States, ism by the government, what has actually erupted yet again in October during a House China has the world’s highest number of changed? Local councils have even less con- of Lords debate, was fuelled by Pranab ultra-rich people—those with assets of more trol over their finances than they did pre- Mukherjee, now India’s president, who has than $50m—with 4700 living there. Yet for viously. The Lib Dems might have long dismissed foreign assistance as “peanuts.” all China’s success in lifting millions out of campaigned against the council tax, but What India demonstrates so clearly is poverty, it remains home to about one in there has been no serious consideration how the aid debate has been mugged by eco- seven of the world’s poor. given to the alternatives. It is also not clear nomic reality, wrong-footing both sides. Crit- As Sumner pointed out in two impor- whether changes to the planning system will ics are wrong to argue there is no point giving tant papers this year, if most of the world’s actually give local people more control over money to wealthier nations; it is no longer the poor live in countries with the capacity and local decisions, or achieve the opposite. case that the world’s poor are found in the wealth to tackle extreme poverty, eradica- As for the Protection of Freedoms Act, it poorest nations. But supporters are wrong to tion becomes largely a domestic issue rather appears to want to ban things. focus on foreign intervention to end poverty; than an international one. It is a question What about the so-called “bonfire of the the issue is now domestic inequality. of internal inequality rather than external quangos,” which was supposed to ensure The coalition, responding to the ham- aid, relying on political settlements rather 20 opinions prospect december 2012 than foreign salvation. This is especially true of countries such as India where the richest people are taking a bigger share of national wealth while the poor end up with even less. Foreign aid simply fuels corruption, funds repression and allows inequality to continue. If this is the case, why do western govern- ments continue to insist on providing it? Aid is driven, in part, by western salvation fanta- sies and by the desire of politicians to appear compassionate. But an out-of-control aid industry is beginning to cause more harm than good, preventing other countries from working out their own solutions. Foreign aid demeans the recipient nation when that nation has the financial capabilities to solve its own problems. Inequality is moving up the political agenda across the world. In the west, there is justified concern over bonus-chasing bank- ers and plutocrats who plunder profits while cutting wages for workers. In the develop- ing world, the issues are even more stark. But we need to recognise the pace of change on the planet. If we really want to help the world’s poor, we could liberalise immigration controls and tackle issues such as tax eva- sion and corruption with far tougher action against money-laundering and all those in our own countries who assist the corruption. We can do the most good by abandoning an antiquated way of talking about aid. Ian Birrell was formerly deputy editor of the Inde- pendent and a speech writer for David Cameron

Clare Lockhart The MDGs were launched in 2000, aim- mary education relative to other levels. More ing to eliminate global poverty by 2015 recent studies covering Indonesia, Brazil, The UN’s own goal through eight goals, from health to the Malaysia and others show that growth is cor- An obsession with primary environment. Their record is mixed. Sup- related instead to secondary and tertiary porters point to their success in building education, especially once a critical thresh- education has backfired a consensus, in galvanising attention and old in primary education is met. resources, and in achieving significant The emphasis on primary education likely Since the launch of the UN’s Millennium gains. Critics point to their failure to have had an unintended effect: it diverted focus Development Goals (MDGs) over a dec- met any single goal completely; dozens of and resources away from secondary and ter- ade ago, education gurus, ministers and countries have made almost no progress; tiary education as well as vocational training. aid officials have worked to get every child and most gains are attributable to the rise The goal, that began as an objective, became in the world into primary school. This focus of India and China. a planning tool and even a restriction, pre- has come at a price. The neglect of second- Universal primary education is the goal venting resources reaching children over 11. ary and vocational training has translated closest to being met: approximately 88 per Countries including South Sudan, Kenya, into millions of people unequipped to par- cent of school age children in developing Liberia and Tanzania were encouraged to ticipate in the work force. As a consequence, countries were in primary school in 2010, up curb funding of secondary and vocational young peoples’ expectations do not match from 81 per cent in 1999, and only 70m chil- training in order to focus on meeting the economic reality, leaving them marginalised dren remain out of primary school. Interna- MDGs. I witnessed a meeting in Afghanistan and unemployed, and societies without the tional aid commitments to basic education where major donors told the government that human capital necessary to sustain their own grew from $2.1bn in 2002 to $4.2bn in 2007. until every last child was in primary school, development. This has created a gap in the The rationale was driven by analysis—now no child should go to secondary school. They global agenda. With the MDGs’ term expir- contested—based on 1967 data that sug- insisted on the secondary and post-second- ing, a revised approach is urgently needed. gested higher returns on investment for pri- ary budget being eliminated. Extraordinary © AFP/Getty Images gap”: without secondary tertiary and edu sionforAfrica, have pointed“capacity ato and 48 per cent in cation, as compared with 43 per centcent inof the population were in tertiary edu Hundreds of studies, including the neers, accountants, project managers. and their next generation of doctors,training? First, nurses,countries engihave not prepared ment away secondary from vocational and and in ofthe population were in secondary school, 28per cent and in comes as no surprise. In vocational training2010, education andondary in Uganda only young adults. Languishing enrolmentto inwhat sec prospects face them reachas theteenagers age of 11 aand huge question looms as few thousand girls in 2001. As these2011, children more than 2m of them girls, up fromchildren a in primary school in Afghanistanprogress has beenby made with more than 8m prospect december 2012 december prospect Whatwere the effects of skewing invest T anzania, E T ritrea and M hailand. ozambique25 per cent C had only 2 per C ommis P eru ------agers and young people without prospects of lower pay. relegates subservient to them positions on ancedeniessalarylocalato employees, or cost a hundredfold. to perform the same tasks can multiply thatthousand dollars, deploying an NG neer’s salary in a developing countryassistance is a few to fill skills gaps. A nurse or engi at secondary and vocational levels.tions, requires large numbers to countriesbethe growing witheducated young popula ing primary education services, especiallythe in generation beyond them. damagingshortfallais teachersof totrain culturalandfinancial systems. cation a country cannot run its health, agri can create a damaging “capacity gap” Afghanistan. A focus on primary education Classes at the Behzad Gallery, Herat, T S econd, vast sums were spent on external hird, high unemployment, leaving teen opinion M oreover, external assist s E ven maintain P articularly O worker ------25-30 per cent. per 25-30 youthreachedtheamonghadratesment opportunity in the decades to economic come. and services public support to nextgenerations skillswiththetheyneed experts to craft and an development leaders agenda for for time equipping the is the education sectors for the 21st century. Now imperativerethinktheirtoan undernow l i the in bly have faced riots and revolutions, employment realitiesmost to nota policyeducation align and youth their in invest to failing ula to industrialtoula needs. tance education and orienting their curric with reforms such as lifelong learning, dis S Finland, tion and training with employment such as that have enjoyed success at aligning tionalsystemseducaevery in country. present challenges that are straining educa tion of increasingly global economic sectors technologicalchangetransformatheand to the developing world. to meet its needs. industry and building a governmentworkforce and of landscape futureequipped the become pro-active,shift toto anticipating the power of new technologies. and apprenticeship schemes and leveraging tions, private sector investment in training partnerships with universities and founda systems,but schoolpublic ministriesand on only not rest shouldimplementation each context.each of challenges specific the to respond to ingtheeducation policieseachcountry of t dvlpetl gna o educa for tionisrequired. agenda developmental a at debatedinthe months ahead, fresha look the to regime successor the As foundations for such a balanced approach. inclusion? imperatives of stability, economics and civil educationtrainingandpolicy balance the can how And needs? these meet to skills countryequip itsnext generation with the public, private and civic sectors? How can a society needs to develop and strengthen its ingcertain questions: what arethe skills a policies. training and education developing to approach anced theofprimary sector. callforbala isaIt expense the at education higher and ary entrepreneurs to create jobs at scale. thatpost-basic education was essential for S ingcountries with youthful demographics. economic growth. as well stabilityas national and cohesion productive employment, is an issue for social State Effectiveness Clare Lockhart is director of the Institute for naoe andingapore tudies of several countries have concluded T T T hese policy challenges are not confined he i i nt cl t epn second expand to call a not is his MD S weden,Abu M G framework failed to set the set frameworkto failedG iddle T he work of innovationworkofhe and S C T uh oe ae adapting are Korea outh ountries everywhereountriesare hereal work isin updat T E his is acute in develop s wee unemploy where ast D T T C i rqie ask requires his habi, he acceleration of ountriesthat are P C olicy needs osta C MD ountries s is Gs R ica, 21 ------22 opinions prospect december 2012

“Test Card F”: during the 1980s the BBC investigated the politics of its employees, but chose to ignore other behaviour

more Establishment than that. Once you got inside the high security fence of the Estab- lishment, you could do what you liked. As a young journalist, I was sent to report on the Jeffrey Archer trial of 1987, when he sued the Daily Star for claiming he had paid off a prostitute, Monica Coghlan. The Archers owned the house of the first world war poet Rupert Brooke and when I arrived to try to get an interview, instead of having to yell my questions through a locked gate as I was expecting, I was confronted by the bizarre sight of Mary Archer serving cham- pagne from a silver tray to journalists stand- ing awkwardly on their lawn. No one had any tough questions for the “fragrant” Mary after that. And who can forget the judge’s injunc- tion to the jury about Jeffrey: “Is he in need of cold, unloving, rubber-insulated sex in a seedy hotel round about quarter to one on a Tuesday morning after an evening at the Caprice?”, as if any member of the Estab-

© Pho t oE d i / A la m y © lishment could stoop so low. Archer won the case and was awarded £500,000 damages. It treated like natural obstacles, which you took 14 years for the truth to come out that needed to navigate around as a pre-pubes- he had lied to judge and jury. It seems that cent boy like driving a car around road the tabloids had heard the rumours about works. We complained about them, but they Savile for years; he allegedly blackmailed were seen as an irritating fact of life. them by saying that if they wrote about the Remember, the adults of the 1970s were rumours, it would destroy his charity, and the children of the 1960s. They were still did they want to be responsible for closing coming to terms with straightforward sex Stoke Mandeville hospital? But a big part Tom Carver between consenting adults in all its forms; of why they didn’t report on him was that when it came to deviant sexual behaviour, he was a member of the Establishment and Awed by authority they were completely at sea. They didn’t untouchable. No wonder Jimmy Savile got understand the pathology of sexual deviancy Having spent 20 years at the BBC, I can and didn’t even condemn it as criminal. They see how the organisation never investigated away with it handled it crudely, excuse the pun, by giving Savile. I’m sure that whenever rumours people caricature titles like “dirty old men,” about Savile’s activities reached the ears of How did “Jim’ll fix it” get away with it for so and telling us children to just “stay away.” the bosses, they dismissed them as vicious long? That’s what everyone wants to know. They had no guidelines for what was appro- innuendo. The BBC of the 80s was a highly There are 400 “lines of enquiry,” as the priate or inappropriate. The police wanted hierarchical, deferential organisation run by police describe potential victims in their nothing to do with it, only intervening if it upper middle-class, middle-aged men who bloodless prose, spanning 40 years. Isn’t it was causing a public disturbance, such as weren’t about to launch an investigation into amazing that no one reported him? the time a flasher tried to assault girls com- the sex life of their biggest children’s televi- Actually, I don’t find it surprising. I am ing out of our public library. If you were sion star. They were much more concerned a child of the 1970s and I grew up watch- someone like Jimmy Savile, fondling under- about weeding out the politically “unreli- ing Jim’ll Fix It. I also grew up with dirty old age girls in the privacy of your own caravan, able.” After all, when I first joined the BBC men. Lechers, as they were known, were an then the law wasn’t interested. in 1986, a “security liaison officer” inB road- occupational hazard for an 11-year-old boy The second reason for such a moral fail- casting House was still “vetting” the back- in 1972. There were the “dirty old men” that ure was that in the 70s and 80s, Britain was ground of every new trainee. The officer hung around the public toilet in my local still in awe of members of the Establish- would stamp the image of a Christmas tree town. There were the flashers. There was ment. For all the talk of social unrest, with on the file of any employee who was sus- “Butch” Armstrong, the history master at the miners rioting in the streets, if you were pected of “subversive” behaviour and passed my public school. It wasn’t as if we didn’t part of the Establishment you were cloaked it along to the authorities. What a tragedy know about dirty old men; my parents would in a sanctifying omertà. It was very difficult that the officer didn’t do the same for the files occasionally warn me to stay away from to get the courts and the police to investigate of sexual deviants like Savile who did much them, and guessing who was a dirty old man a “figure of authority,” and Jimmy Savile more damage to the lives of others than the and who wasn’t was a rich source of specula- was a figure of authority, his eccentric track- occasional reader of the Daily Worker. tion among my friends and I. suits and white Rolls-Royces notwithstand- Tom Carver is a former BBC foreign What was odd, looking back, is that no ing. After all, he was friends with the royal correspondent and the author of a memoir of one did anything about them. They were family and the prime minister; you can’t get his father, “Where the Hell Have You Been?” prospect december 2012 opinions 23

olds who have been unlucky in their school- tem is, and other online learning organisa- ing can’t gain admission to the highest-qual- tions do not offer this. Indeed, the OU was ity courses—and, more disquietingly, they ranked fourth for student satisfaction in the have no second chance. We can’t wait until UK’s most recent National Student Survey. high-quality teaching at school is available Britains’s higher education system has across the full geographical and social spec- undergone welcome expansion since the trum. That will take years. So we quickly 1960s, but it is still too homogeneous and Martin Rees need a system that is less compartmental- inflexible. A traditional honours degree ised, with more alternative routes and more isn’t appropriate for 40 per cent of school transfers between institutions. Some 71 per leavers; indeed, I think it’s too specialised Education for all cent of OU students are studying while in for almost all students. There needs to be a The Open University is the future employment, and four out of five FTSE 100 more diverse ecology, from informal learn- companies have sponsored their staff on ing using credits to a traditional degree, According to Martin Bean, the Open Uni- OU courses. In Australia, students are able and indeed a blurring between higher and versity’s vice-chancellor, now is the “web to move around within institutions as their further education. moment” for higher education. It is indeed. expectations and needs change. We need a The OU can play a special role, enabling The Open University (OU) has vastly more similar system here, giving students flexibil- people of any age and background to boost potential in the current era of the internet ity when their situation alters. their higher education. Now that we are liv- and smartphone than it did when it began. The OU has been a pathfinder. Its well- ing longer, in a faster-changing environment, The internet offers scope for “distance tested model of distance learning, supple- the importance of mature students, part- learning” that would have been inconceiv- mented by a network of local tutors, dates time courses and distance learning will grow. able to earlier generations. A new acronym back to 1971. It was the brainchild of the Distance learning cannot replace the has gained prominence: MOOCs, or “mas- great social entrepreneur Michael Young cultural and communal experience found sive online open courses,” which now have a and is the most durable legacy of two Labour at the better universities. But it may erode potentially global reach. Two high-level pro- politicians, Jennie Lee and Harold Wilson. demand for the traditional mass univer- moters of such MOOCs are Coursera, set up But now it can hugely expand its impact, in sity, like many on mainland Europe and by Stanford academics, and EdX, an online the UK and worldwide, by seizing the oppor- in India, where students are offered little collaboration between MIT and Harvard. tunities offered by new technology, in con- more than a passive role as part of a large A report published in October, entitled junction with its wealth of experience. audience in lectures (generally of mediocre “University Challenge: How Higher Educa- Unlike most of the newer providers of quality) with minimal feedback. The OU tion Can Advance Social Mobility,” by Alan distance learning, the OU enables students offers flexibility and variety in the narrow Milburn, chair of the independent social to work towards a recognised qualification. world of higher education. mobility and child poverty commission, Students have also consistently emphasised Martin Rees is emeritus professor of cosmology highlighted the depressing fact that 18 year how crucial the university’s mentoring sys- and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge ADVERTISING FEATURE SOLAR POWER TURNS UP THE HEAT ON OIL DURING THE NEXT DECADE SOLAR POWER COULD COMPETE ON PRICE AND PERFORMANCE AGAINST THE TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES. THE KEY TO ITS SUSTAINED SUCCESS WILL BE DEVELOPING WAYS OF STORING THE SUN’S ENERGY - SOME ANSWERS ARE ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT

olar power already seems old emerge in everything from micro- They will also be cheaper. The hat. The dominant narrative devices to major power stations. price of PV modules is falling and is that we are in the cheap Think of the possible implications. they are already 75 per cent lower mass production phase of an The power structures of ‘big oil’ in price than they were three years Sestablished technology, that panel replaced not by ‘peak oil’, but ago. China’s low-cost production production will be dominated by perhaps post oil, or rather a world in has given the world a taste of the China, while trade disputes will which oil is no longer so dominant? potential of cheap solar systems. continue to make the headlines. It is hard to imagine a future where The second major driver of Think again: radical technology civilisation remains dependent on the step change is revolutionary may be about to increase sunlight fossil fuels – continually wrestling new technologies. conversion efficiency from theoretical with their environmental impact Solar cell technology patent limits of around 33 per cent to upwards and ultimately finite supply. activities have grown substantially, of 87 per cent. Such an increase Progress with solar power providing us with insight into suggests that over the next decade or has been slower than many may disruption ahead. Advances in next so, solar power will be able to compete have expected, but we may have generation Solar PV technologies with traditional forms of energy on reached a tipping point. such as black silicon, organic PV solar price and performance at peak periods. Based on recent predictions, cells and multi-junction cells bring Yet solar alone will not be sufficient installations of solar photovoltaic (PV) the promise of increased efficiency to meet growing power demand. systems are on course to increase and/or further decreases in costs The future will require diverse 50-fold by 2020 compared with of production. Then there is also integrated systems combining multiple 2005. Global installed capacity now quantum dot technology, which technologies, such as prototype exceeds 65 gigawatts (GW). By 2020 promises to boost energy conversion systems in Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City, this is predicted to reach 600 GW. efficiency and cut manufacturing costs. or closer at home with “EcoIsland” on the Isle of Wight illustrate. This heterogeneous energy The increasing number of multi-junction solar cells patents future will rely on the convergence of recent technology advances 300 2500 in wind, wave, hydrogen, super 265

capacitors and other diverse forms 250 of energy capture and storage. 229 228 2000

Yet this is not simply a technology 200 story: systems designers and 1500 integrators in both the public and 150 138 private sectors must rise to the 116 challenge of delivering not just 104 1000 100 82 efficiency, but also resilience. 71 66 65 63

Number of patent documents 500 50 39

32 number of patent documents Cumulative Beyond oil 26 29 30 29 29 30 25 26 20 23 24 23 18 24 18 23 Within ten years, we may well 15 begin to see cheap, abundant, 0 0

universal, low carbon power 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre-1982 Source: Cambridge IP Research 2012 Of these technologies, the one “Solar power will not as a central technology in a number with the most significant near-term of national energy strategies, while impact is multi-junction solar cells. be able to deliver potentially revolutionary new types of Even so, solar will not deliver all of the answers batteries, some using graphene convert all the answers on its own. After thermal energy of ions into electricity. all, the sun only shines for part on its own” Advances in energy storage not of the day in many parts of the only promise to support the wider world and cloud cover can reduce and off-grid areas and balance use of renewable energy sources, energy capture levels for weeks. short-term fluctuations in voltage. but also create new business Innovation across the energy storage models – allowing renewables to Solar’s silver bullet? sector is gaining momentum. be ‘banked’ and delivered when Advanced energy storage technology Compressed air energy storage, demand, along with the price, rises. has the potential to transform for instance, has the potential to be The widespread application of not just solar, but all intermittent the lowest-cost mass energy store some of these technologies is still a renewable power sources. It will available. Hydrogen storage, which long-term proposition. Yet molten salt, enable integration with the modern involves compressed hydrogen gas for instance, is already enabling utility grid, support greater use in remote in high-pressure tanks, is emerging level deployment of concentrated > ADVERTISING FEATURE

solar power by providing a source of ways to produce a multiplier effect. 1,000 businesses. Meanwhile, the cheap large-scale energy storage. In As these technologies evolve, the EcoIsland project on the Isle of Wight a more compact form, molten salt signs point to a heterogeneous energy aims to make the entire island carbon technology also offers an effective future where a variety of renewable neutral and energy independent solution for battery storage. Following energy sources including wind, wave, by 2020. recent breakthroughs (see case solar and others, are used in parallel As solar is able to compete study), new molten salt batteries and in a range of different applications. on price and performance at off- are on track to become viable for Examples of heterogeneous peak, as well as on-peak times, widespread use in electric vehicles renewable ‘ecosystems’ are already its longer-term transformative sooner than once imagined possible. up and running. The most famous potential will become apparent. example is Masdar City. In parallel, emerging forms of “The EcoIsland project Masdar, a subsidiary of Mubadala energy storage such as molten salt are Development Company, is a UAE- providing the means to realise the full on the Isle of Wight based alternative power company that impact of these advances in both grid aims to make the entire began work in 2006, constructing a level and small-scale applications. fully sustainable, zero-carbon, zero- When integrated with other island carbon neutral” waste ecology outside of Abu Dhabi. renewable energy sources, the When fully operational, Masdar potential for entirely new low-cost, While the pairing of molten City will utilise a mix of solar PV, efficient and very disruptive energy salt technology and concentrated wind, hydrogen and geothermal solutions may quickly emerge. solar holds great potential as a for 40,000 people and more than We may begin to see system-wide future grid-level energy source, it is only part of the picture. Hydrogen storage and other technologies are advancing in parallel - some vying for common market space - others integrated in novel innovation, where the impact of multiple technologies and business MOLTEN SALT: A CASE STUDY models is far more than the sum of the parts. In a world recently dominated by fears of systemic failure, Molten salt, a mixture of 60 per cent sodium nitrate and 40 per cent systemic innovation has received potassium nitrate, might not evoke the same sense of wonder as graphene - far less attention than it should. the world’s thinnest, strongest, most conductive new material. Many questions surround the Yet molten salt can provide an effective solution for storing thermal energy precise shape this newly integrated when used as part of a large-scale concentrated solar installation. SolarReserve, energy future will take - but the for example, is building a 110 MW concentrated solar facility in Nevada (the direction of travel seems clear. Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project) that will generate electricity 24 hours a day. However, there are many 9WMRKXLMWETTVSEGLWSPEVIRIVK]MWVI¾IGXIHSRXSELIEXI\GLERKIVSV possible near-term implications VIGIMZIVQSYRXIHSRXSTSJEGIRXVEPXS[IVMRE½IPHSJWYRXVEGOMRKQMVVSVWSV and long-term scenarios. heliostats. Molten salt is pumped through the tower where it is heated and then WIRXXSEXLIVQEPWXSVEKIXEROYRXMPIPIGXVMGMX]MWVIUYMVIH8LIQSPXIRWEPXMWXLIR “Underlying factors directed to a steam generator that drives a turbine, producing electricity. The QSPXIRWEPXVIXYVRWXSEGSSPIHWXSVEKIXEROFIJSVIMXMWWIRXMRXSXLIXS[IVXSFI continue to drive VILIEXIHVIWXEVXMRKXLIG]GPI8LITVSGIWWMWKVIIRERHLMKLP]IRIVK]IJ½GMIRX growth in demand for ;MRXIV+VIIR6IWIEVGLLEZITVIHMGXIHXLEXXLIQEVOIXWJSVQSPXIRWEPXXLIVQEP storage and concentrated solar power technology will reach $13.6bn by 2016. conventional sources” Besides its application in large-scale concentrated solar installations, molten The emergence of gas as a WEPXEPWSLSPHWKVIEXTVSQMWIJSVIRIVK]WXSVEKIMRXLIJSVQSJLMKLP]IJ½GMIRX major factor, fracking technologies rechargeable batteries. and the growing recognition that Molten salt batteries have been around for long time - often being deployed in a US$70 a barrel oil price makes military and industrial settings. Despite their effectiveness, they have been limited more marginal reserves viable. It MRXLIMVETTPMGEXMSRWF]XLILMKLXIQTIVEXYVIWVIUYMVIHXSOIITXLIQSPXIRWEPX underlines the deep complexity and from solidifying (up to 700 degrees centigrade). uncertainty in world energy markets. While energy efficiency continues Lower temperatures to improve rapidly in domestic, Sumitomo Corporation, in a project with Kyoto University, recently announced a industrial and transport sectors, rechargeable molten salt battery that operates at lower temperatures. underlying demographic and economic The new battery would cost about 10 per cent as much as lithium ion factors continue to drive growth in batteries and could allow an electric vehicle to travel twice as far. The company demand for conventional sources. LSTIWXSFVMRKMXXSQEVOIXMR8LIRI[FEXXIV]GSYPHFIHITPS]IHMR This suggests incremental, rather TVMZEXIZILMGPIWMRHYWXVMEPIUYMTQIRXERHEWEQIERWSJIRIVK]WXSVEKIMRLSQIW than rapid and disruptive change. and commercial buildings. On the other hand, the cumulative Now imagine incorporating next generation multi-junction solar cells into impact of solar, storage and other these applications. By considering these technologies together, we can begin to renewable technologies, together see the scale of their potential impact. with ‘smart’ systems integration, may create a sustained shock. This may ultimately accelerate 1SPXIRWEPXTEXIRX½PMRKW the transition of oil and gas export economies such as Russia and the Middle East away from fossil Other Asian Patents 0.5% fuel dependency and improve US Australia and New Zealand 0.1% and Chinese security. Masdar is WIPO 16.5% an illustration of a new model. US PTO 37.8% The cleantech story has begun but Canada 1.4% we are still in its early chapters. The European Patents (EPO & National) 15.3% strands coming together today may Russia 0.4% provide us with a genuine first glimpse Central and South America 0.1% China 6.5% of our energy future - and a new way Japan 18.2% of life for generations to come.

Commissioned by Coutts from Peter Kingsley, PJR 2012 Source: CambridgeIP research, 2012 28 prospect december 2012 Features The best is yet to come 28 Thank Fox for that 33 Long shadow over Europe 36 SAS: the Iranian embassy siege 44 The NHS needs competition 46 Japan’s parasite singles 50 Let them learn English 54 Google’s goggles: augmented reality 58 The American century is not over Talk of decline is overstated, as Obama’s second term will show bill emmott

t took some chutzpah for Barack Obama to repeat in his If you take Obama’s victory speech literally, he was promising victory speech one of Ronald Reagan’s favourite lines, that to prove that narrative wrong, even if he didn’t quite follow Rea- for America “the best is yet to come.” It took even more gan by saying it was “morning in America.” There are as usual to reprise some of his own old lines about bipartisanship, good grounds for cynicism. For a start, it is a mistake to take poli- about uniting rather than dividing, after such a bitter pres- ticians’ speeches too literally. Moreover, an odd feature of a presi- Iidential election campaign in which he himself led the way in the dential system, especially in our personality-focused age, is that it use of negative, demonising tactics. Admittedly, he had beaten ascribes vast power to a single man, egging him on to claim to be Mitt Romney more cleanly than most pundits expected, and his able to change the course of an entire nation, and yet simultane- Republican foes had had a disappointing night in Senate races ously cripples that power through the checks and balances of the too, so a bit of over-optimism is understandable. Yet it is perfectly US constitution. However good election night was for his Dem- possible that he could be right. ocratic party compared with once-dire expectations, it still left It doesn’t look that way to the 23m Americans who are unem- Congress gridlocked, with the House of Representatives firmly in ployed, nor to the hundreds of millions in the “squeezed middle” Republican hands and the Senate held by the Democrats. who have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in recent years Nevertheless, here’s a prediction: President Obama’s second while the rich—and especially the super-rich—have been accru- term will be a period during which the narrative of inexorable ing new private jets and luxury homes. Nor will it feel that way if, American decline is at the very least called into serious question. sometime during President Obama’s second term, China over- At best, however, that narrative will be shown to have been a pro- takes America as the world’s biggest economy, which it might well found misunderstanding of the true state of the world. For the do on measures that adjust economic output according to domes- American century is not over. tic purchasing power. If this prediction proves correct, it will not be because of That moment would be purely symbolic and of no underly- one man, nor one political institution. That is impossible in the ing economic importance. But symbols do matter, both to inter- American political system, and is also not the way a decentral- national credibility and to domestic confidence. Slower Chinese ised, fairly free-market place like the United States works. Nor growth, or faster American growth, might defer the day into the will it solely be because of actions by or in America. Even so, it will first term of the next president, but nonetheless it will most likely require some leadership from the White House. happen, quite soon, and when it does the moment will be pored Two numbers will now dominate American politics just as they over by journalists and analysts all around the world. For it fits have obsessed financial markets and corporate leaders for more a convenient and simple narrative: that America is in decline, than a year. The numbers are, first, the country’s $11.4 trillion accompanied by the rest of the west which it leads. The Ameri- public debt, which amounts to more than $36,000 per American can century, proclaimed by the founder of Time magazine, Henry citizen. Then second, the looming expiry in January of tax cuts Luce, in 1941, is considered over, almost three decades early. and concessions originally set in place by President George W Bush and extended by President Obama. Combined with spend- Bill Emmott is the former editor of The Economist ing cuts that were agreed as part of last year’s deal between prospect december 2012 the american century is not over 29 i m ages gett y © Obama’s second term could see “America’s domestic difficulties become smaller and its economy stronger” 30 prospect december 2012

Congress and the White House to increase the borrowing limit, this threatens to cause a sudden downturn amounting to about 4 per cent of US GDP, plunging the country back into recession. America would go over what everyone is calling “a fiscal cliff.” There isn’t much time to avoid that cliff. The deal to do so needs to be done not by the newly elected Congress but by the old one, in what Americans call a “lame-duck session.” Fears that the deal might not be done; that America has become paralysed through its polarisation, or that methods used to avoid this fiscal crisis could anyway be damaging to companies, appear to have caused a substantial pause in business investment while boards wait to see what happens. The US economy has not been doing badly by European standards: its recent annualised growth rate of about 2 per cent would place it easily at the top of western European growth rankings. Its unemployment rate of 7.9 per cent of the workforce places it well below the eurozone’s 11.6 per cent and on level peg- ging with Britain. But it has been doing badly by its own historic standards: at this point during the recovery from a recession, it has previously grown at annual rates of 3-4 per cent. A main reason is that this is not a “normal” recession or recov- ery, akin to those over the past 40 years with which it is often compared. It is a recovery following a huge financial crash, one which followed a bubble of private credit and debt. The private sector is only gradually adjusting to that crash. Households have been cutting back debt and rebuilding their savings, while com- panies have become newly aware of the dangers posed by exces- sive leverage. So neither household consumption nor business nificant trends in the American economy.O ne is the energy rev- investment was ever likely to rebound enthusiastically from the olution that is well under way, as new techniques for both shale post-Lehman shock recession. gas and oil extraction have produced tumbling domestic natural That is true also of Britain and of parts of Europe. As on this gas prices and a boom in US production of both oil and gas. This side of the Atlantic the picture is made more complicated by the promises not just direct economic benefits from all the energy huge and worrying rise in public debts that was necessary to avert investment, but also indirect benefits from having some of the complete economic collapse when private demand slumped. world’s lowest energy costs. The second is the continued flow of Even so, in America’s usually flexible, dust-yourself-off-and-start- technological innovation occurring in Silicon Valley and across again form of capitalism, there seems to have been something the nation, in fields from information technology to bio-engi- more going on beyond simply a lengthy adjustment following the neering. Together, despite all the challenges of debt and finan- financial crisis. It is that political uncertainty about the election, cial adjustment, these mean that America’s economy has a better and especially concerning the fiscal cliff, has been making corpo- chance of surprising on the upside than the downside—which rate boards even more cautious, even more desirous of hoarding cannot be said of Europe, Japan or indeed China or India. their cash, than would otherwise have been the case. So will the fear-reducing deal be done? That is the question This is not just a matter of uncertainty caused by competing obsessing Washington. For the past two years, since the 2010 policy prescriptions by Democrats and Republicans. Businesses mid-term Congressional elections brought a Republican surge have been concluding that the range of economic outcomes and control of the House of Representatives, America has looked they face is unusually wide and risky. While politicians and ide- ungovernable. Yet for it to continue to be so following Obama’s ologues argue about the potentially inflationary consequences victory and the Republicans’ disappointing night requires a of the Federal Reserve Board’s “quantitative easing,” or print- pretty extreme view of how politicians on both sides might react ing money by buying Treasury bonds and other assets, corpo- to the results. While you can never entirely rule out the possibil- rate boards have been worrying more about the danger of a new ity that politicians might miscalculate, stepping so close to the slump and the deflation that could result from it. When prices cliff edge that it crumbles and then America tumbles over, such are falling, you don’t want to be left holding debt, for its burden suicidal tactics do not look likely. For it is going to be in no one’s rises the more deflation takes hold. In such circumstances, cash political interest to play cliff-edge chicken. is king. Politics remains bitter and polarised. President Obama would The economic prize that could come from removing this fear be making a serious mistake if he were to think that armed with a would be substantial. A successful political deal in Congress that new mandate and faced by depressed Republican opponents, life prevents a drastic fiscal contraction, and thus the new deflation- is suddenly going to be easy. His opponents still want to ruin his ary slump that businesses fear, promises to unleash a wave of presidency, if they possibly can. But they are not going to want new business investment. The deal wouldn’t eliminate fear alto- the blame for ruining America at the same time. And their elec- gether, of course: doubts about the eurozone’s survival would toral perspective will now be one that casts forward two years, to make sure of that. But it could have a big impact, nevertheless. the mid-term congressional elections in 2014, not two months to That bright opportunity needs to be added to two other sig- the tax-cut expiry. prospect december 2012 the american century is not over 31 ages Im P ict u res /G ett y L ife & T i m e © u re , feat press / re x sipa © EPA/BRIAN BLANCO, © BLANCO, EPA/BRIAN ©

So some sort of deal is most likely to be done, a combina- Far left: Ronald Reagan achieved tax reform in his second term tion of renewed tax concessions and preserved spending pro- despite a gridlocked Congress; centre, Iran has felt the pressure of grammes. No doubt it won’t be either pretty or inspiring, but it sanctions, levied by the Obama administration. Right, Mayor will be a deal. To save face and keep their options open for the Castro of San Antonio, a Democrat. Hispanic votes will help decide real fight to come, Republicans in Congress will insist that no future elections actual tax rates are raised by the deal, even if ways are found to raise tax revenues a little, and that small businesses are not hit more entrepreneurial than other countries. hard by any Democrat insistence on shifting the burden of taxa- The deal to ease the problem of illegal immigrants and to tion away from the middle class and on to the rich. But the point smooth a process of legal immigration now disastrously strewn is that both sides know that the real fight over those issues will be with barriers should be easier because of the demographic real- better held during the new session of Congress. ity of the Republicans’ 2012 disappointment: they failed to win Next year will be what politicos in America call a “work year”, support of Hispanics, the biggest recent immigrant group and implying that election years like 2012 and 2014 are not times one often presumed to be of a naturally conservative disposition. when things can be done. It is also Barack Obama’s only real Party strategists will immediately be trying to work out how to chance during his second term of achieving a further legislative win more Latino votes in both 2014 and 2016, perhaps in the legacy. The chief potential components of that legacy are more latter case even with a Hispanic presidential candidate, Marco long-term fiscal reform and immigration reform. Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants who is now the junior sena- The real fight ahead is over that fiscal reform. The last time tor for Florida. America achieved a major tax reform was in Ronald Reagan’s An America that, even within just that “work year” of 2013, second term, in 1986, when he too had won re-election and yet had achieved some sort of fiscal reform, however clunky, that faced a gridlocked Congress, with the House then in Democratic had passed immigration reform, and that thanks to a revival in hands. Tax reforms are never easy. But 1986 shows how deals business investment was motoring along at annual GDP growth can be done when both sides feel they have something to gain. rates of around 3 per cent would start to turn heads and change Having fumbled his chance during his first term, by sidestepping minds, all over the world. Perceptions swing quickly in interna- the conclusions reached by the bipartisan fiscal reform group he tional politics, just as they do in financial markets. himself had set up, the Simpson-Bowles Commission, Obama Such a swing in perceptions would begin to cause a rethink will now have a second chance to make such a deal. of all the fashionable assumptions about American decline. Immigration reform ought to be easier. It too is fundamental This has happened plenty of times before. In the 1970s, when to the country’s long-term future. The overhang of debt and of the defeat in Vietnam and urban riots led many to count Amer- future spending commitments casts a shadow over the govern- ica out, or in the 1980s, when despite Reagan’s sunny optimism ment’s solvency. Deadlock and political panic over immigration, books and treatises about American decline and what was then which has persisted for much of the time since the 9/11 attacks seen as inevitable Japanese supremacy continued until Japan’s eleven years ago, casts a shadow over the country’s long-term financial bubble burst in 1990. vibrancy. Immigrants have always kept America younger and This is about to happen again. Yet at each point when the 32 prospect december 2012

to engage with Iran, to close Guantanamo Bay and to withdraw gracefully from Iraq and Afghanistan were made to look fool- ish by messy political realities. His biggest success was to rebuild America’s position in east and southeast Asia, convincing weary allies and even old foes like Vietnam that they needed an engaged United States in order to counter-balance an increasingly asser- tive China. Beyond that, he essentially continued the more mul- tilateral, conciliatory approach used by George W Bush in his second term, but benefited from a friendlier and more trusting reception around the world. The reception may remain friendly, but the world itself will not. Three places look likely to make life especially uncomfort- able for President Obama, even if he does benefit from revived American credibility. The trickiest, as so often, is Iran, whose nuclear programme the Obama administration has so far prin- cipally—and quite successfully, in a limited sense—confronted with economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. The limited sense is that the sanctions have weakened Iran’s economy and puts its regime under greater pressure. But it has not ended or even slowed down the nuclear programme. Which is why Isra- el’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has sought pledges of military action. And why President Obama may soon be forced to choose between unfeasible military strikes and an unaccept- able rift with Israel. The most unpredictable and potentially most awkward is the trouble-strewn territory of the “war on terror” conducted by both presidents Bush and Obama. Post-withdrawal collapse in Afghanistan, increased levels of seriousness and capabilities among Al Qaeda-linked terror groups in Africa and Pakistan, and an increased international push-back against Obama’s pro- lific use of drone attacks could all put America back on the spot, with no good options available. The most dangerous, though, is China, and especially its ter- ritorial confrontations with Japan in the East China sea, and with the Philippines, Vietnam and others in the South China sea, both of great strategic importance to the Chinese. It is most dan- gerous not because China really promises to seek a conflict with the United States, but because even the threat of one between what are now the world’s two superpowers could have dramatic economic consequences. The hope must be that China’s new leadership, being finalised

y Im ages AFP/G ett y © and announced only days after America’s presidential vote, will President Obama: strong at home—but abroad? seek to defuse and defer these disputes. But the continued swirl of domestic controversy about corruption in the Communist swing in perceptions has occurred, the world has by then become party leadership and power struggles between factions means a more complicated place. Cold War simplicities and the sharp that the new Chinese leaders might be under more pressure, division between first world and third world are both long gone. and be less confident of their positions, than previous genera- What Fareed Zakaria, then Newsweek International editor, called tions. Sabre-rattling against the old enemy, Japan, might then “the rise of the rest” in his 2008 book The Post-American World look tempting. And that would put America in a mightily dif- has shifted the global balance of power.B ut that is thanks, essen- ficult position, given its obligations to Japan under the defence tially, to American ideas of market-based capitalism spreading and security treaty between the two countries. economic development in Asia, Africa and Latin America. And Second terms often favour foreign policy, for presidents are now the Arab uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Bah- by then short on domestic political capital and long on desires to rain are changing it once again. strut the world’s stage and establish a legacy as a statesman. For There was never, of course, a golden age of American hegem- Barack Obama, whose 2008 election victory was followed hotly ony when leadership was simple and the US could easily get by the strange gift of a Nobel peace prize before he had done its way. And there certainly isn’t now. America may well be less anything for peace, the prospects are different. His second term ungovernable than it looks, but the world is arguably more could see America’s domestic difficulties become smaller and ungovernable than any of us would like it to be. its economy stronger, confirming his country’s status as still the In his first term, President Obama discovered quickly that world’s only leader. But actually exerting that leadership in a way lofty aspirations to achieve reconciliation with theM uslim world, that justifies his Nobel is going to be uncommonly difficult. prospect december 2012 tthank fox for that 33 Thank Fox for that The traditional Republican base is now too small—the party must forge a new one peter kellner

arack Obama has many people to thank for his moderate Americans. They chained themselves to the views victory over Mitt Romney. They include his fam- of a shrinking minority of Americans: white voters on the con- ily, his White House and Democratic party col- servative far right. In so doing, they alienated themselves from leagues, his financial backers and the activists in the very people who might otherwise have voted to get rid of swing states who mobilised his voters. But there Obama: people struggling to make ends meet, worried about Bis someone else to whom he owes a special debt of gratitude: the future and fearful that they might be unable to access good Rupert Murdoch. And if things stay as they are, Obama’s Dem- schools and healthcare for their family. ocratic successors will have cause to bless Murdoch, too. You The basic numbers make this clear. White voters opted for read that right. I do mean Murdoch, the creator of Fox News, Romney over Obama by a massive 17m margin. But non-white the TV channel that tried to poison the minds of American voters preferred Obama by an even more massive margin of voters against the president; that created a platform for Tea 20m. In particular, the president won a higher share of the Party politicians; that seriously tried to persuade viewers that growing Hispanic vote. Compared with 2008, he won 4m fewer Obamacare was tantamount to socialist tyranny; that climate white votes and 2m fewer black votes—but 2m more Hispanic change is a myth. By extending its influence over theR epubli- votes. In 2004 George W Bush won 44 per cent of the Hispanic can party, it killed the party’s chances of ousting Obama. vote. This year Romney won only 28 per cent. The Republi- We can see this from YouGov’s campaign polls and the exit cans must reverse this trend; otherwise future elections will be poll conducted by Edison Research for the Associated Press even harder to win, as the total Hispanic electorate is growing and the television networks. In essence, the Republicans found at roughly half a million a year. If the different racial groups themselves on the wrong side both of long-term trends in the vote in precisely the same proportions in 2016, Obama’s suc- country’s demography, and the values of tens of millions of cessor as Democratic candidate will win the electoral college by a near landslide. Peter Kellner is president of YouGov, the pollster A Republican party that wanted to win back Hispanic

US election How gender, race and ideology divide America Narrow appeal of the Tea Party The economy, stupid Millions who voted for Obama Romney Percentage who consider themselves Which issue is considered the most White men Black men as part of the Tea Party movement important, % 15 5 All Americans The economy 26 1 14

White women Black women 43 20 8 26 <0.5

White TOTAL Hispanic men Men 17 Health care 13 35 4 Women 12 Social security 9 52 2 Budget deŠcit 9 Liberals Hispanic women Under 65 13 Gay rights 4 26 6 Over 65 28 Education 4 3 2 White 18 Abortion 4 Moderates Other non-white ethnic groups Hispanic 8 Taxes 4 27 4 Black 3 Environment 3 21 2 Immigration 3 Liberals 1 Conservatives Non-white TOTAL Medicare 2 Moderates 3 7 27 Terrorism 2 Conservatives The war in 35 7 34 Afghanistan 1 34 thank fox for that prospect december 2012

Why, then, are the Republicans charging down an electoral US population projections Million 500 blind alley? Trotsky would have understood the process. It is a classic example of entryism. A small group captures a slightly larger organisation, and then seeks to exploit the power of that 2008 national 400 projections organisation to run an even larger institution. It’s what Brit- ain’s far left tried to do in the 1980s: take over local Labour party committees, and then use the authority of those com- 300 mittees to control local councils. The Tea Party is, in effect, the White, non-Hispanic Republicans’ Militant Tendency. 200 Indeed, the parallel goes further. In the 1980s, Labour not only had to fight far left lunacy; it also had to overcome adverse Hispanic Black Asian demographic trends. Working-class numbers were contract- 100 ing, while the middle classes were growing. Class-based pol- itics delivered occasional big victories (such as in 1945 and 1966), but were a sure route to defeat by the 1980s. By the 0 time Labour suffered its fourth consecutive defeat in 1992, the 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 question many asked was, can Labour ever win again? Source: U.S. Census Bureau Tony Blair delivered the answer five years later, not just The Hispanic population of the US will rise from 50m in 2010 to through personality and political outlook. He also persuaded 132m in 2050. The white, non-Hispanic population will increase by the party to change itself and so appeal to middle-class voters. only 3m In 2016 the Republicans will need their equivalent. A large part of Mitt Romney’s problem is that his party voters would, above all, abandon its hard line on immigration. denied him the chance to break out of its crumbling citadel. It would also drop any thoughts of cutting welfare, restricting In himself, he is not rabidly right-wing. Indeed, he used the abortions and repealing Obamacare. In short, it would do the TV debates with some skill to present himself as a consensual exact opposite of what the Tea Party proposes. leader. His trouble was that too many Americans regarded his If demographic trends provide one stark challenge to the apparent moderation as only skin-deep. They had seen him tack Republicans, underlying values across the racial spectrum to the right to win his party’s nomination, then revert to the cen- provide another. America contains millions of right-wing vot- tre when he took on Obama. As a result, while most moderates ers, but they are still a minority. Just one-third describe them- thought Obama said what he believed, two-thirds of them criti- selves as “conservative” and, of these, fewer than half regard cised Romney for saying “what he thinks people want to hear.” themselves as part of the Tea Party movement. It is true that The formula for future Republican success, then, is clear. It only one in four Americans describe themselves as “liberal,” must address the concerns of Hispanic voters on jobs, welfare a label that many in the US spit out as a term of abuse. But and immigration, stop offending women with its opposition four in ten describe themselves as “moderate” and 6m more of to abortion, cease frightening elderly voters with its threat to them voted for Obama than Romney. repeal Obamacare, and persuade moderate Americans that it Again, the polling evidence explains why. Obama’s record, is sincere in its wish to pursue bipartisan politics in Congress. much derided by his critics, helped him significantly in the Easy to state, but hard to do. two biggest swing states­—Ohio (because of federal support for car companies) and Florida (Obamacare). In contrast, parts of the Tea Party agenda alienated key voters. For exam- ple, in Ohio, two out of three voters think abortion should be allowed all or most of the time. Elsewhere, state referen- dums uncovered widespread support for gay marriage and legalising cannabis. An openly lesbian Democrat won the hotly contested Senate seat in Wisconsin. It’s not just that most Americans think that Fox News and the Tea Party are addressing the wrong issues—tens of millions actually disa- gree with what they propose. As a result, the Republican party is becoming a tainted brand. At local level, its politicians can overcome this with personal appeal. That’s why the party has retained control of the House of Representatives. But nationally, moderate voters feel the party has become too rigid and right-wing. Recently YouGov asked Americans whether members of Congress should “stand up for their principles” or “compromise to get something done.” Conservatives divided three-to-two in favour of principle, but a large majority of moderates, like liberals, preferred compromise. What’s more, moderates blame Repub- licans more than Democrats for the increasing polarisation of Congress. THE SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT COMPANY

SAINTS AIMS TO BE A CORE INVESTMENT FOR PRIVATE INVESTORS SEEKING INCOME.

A duo for the duration. The fund aims to deliver dividend growth by pursuing income from diverse sources, so it currently invests in equities, bonds, property and forestry. It targets a level of annual income growth ahead of LQÀDWLRQDQGSD\VRXWDGLYLGHQGUHJXODUO\HYHU\TXDUWHU

On top of this, the Scottish American Investment Company also seeks to team up income with capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of high quality companies on a global basis, each selected for their potential to offer sustainable earnings growth well into the future. It’s a relationship designed to mature over the long term.

The Scottish American Investment Company is an investment trust managed by Baillie Gifford and is available through our Share Plan and ISA.

Please remember, your investment can be affected by changing stock market conditions and by currency exchange rates. The value of your investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount invested.

For investment that aims to provide dual rewards over the long term, call 0800 027 0133 or visit www.saints-it.com

Baillie Gifford – long-term investment partners

Your call may be recorded for training or monitoring purposes. Baillie Gifford Savings Management Limited (BGSM) is the manager of the Baillie Gifford Investment Trust Share Plan and Investment Trust ISA and is wholly owned by Baillie Gifford & Co, which is the manager and secretary of the Scottish American Investment Company P.L.C. Your personal data is held and used by BGSM in accordance with data protection legislation. We may use your information to send you information about Baillie Gifford products, funds or special offers and to contact you for business research purposes. We will only disclose your information to other companies within the Baillie Gifford group and to agents appointed by us for these purposes. You can withdraw your consent to receiving further marketing communications from us and to being contacted for business research purposes at any time. You also have the right to review and amend your data at any time. E © Pictorial Press Ltd/Alamy neseit started in 1937, with the it commencedinit 36 Antony Beevor is a historian and author of “The Second World War” Europe’s long shadow began in Junethatyear.inbegan the war started in Americans, For different. so are memories and world war. very country has its own perspective on the second P olandin T his is not surprising when experiences S eptember1939. D S ecember 1941; for ino-Japanesewar, and many Will a continent turn its back on democracy? M ost E uropeansbelieve B ut fortheut R ussians, it antony beevor C hi - pied. It was a conglomeration of many different conflicts, con war, especially affecting those countries which had beenoccu between the major powers, but it was also an international civil the collapse of the 1914 to 1945, or even from the torians extend the conflict further, arguing that it lasted from Franco’s nationalist rising to overthrow the in S T pain are still convinced that it began in 1936 with General he second world war was a monstrousworldstate-on-statewarseconda warwas he S oviet empire in 1989. R ussian prospect december 2012 december prospect R evolution in 1917 until R epublic. S ome his - - - prospect december 2012 europe’s long shadow 37

The destruction of Nuremberg during the second world war

when counting the war dead, we could add to these figures all the victims of famine and illness brought on by malnutrition. It is almost impossible to distinguish between categories of suffering. When we dwell on the enormity of the second world war and its victims, we try to absorb all those statistics of national and ethnic tragedy. But, as a result, there is a tendency to overlook the way the war changed even the survivors’ lives in ways impos- sible to predict. In June 1944, a young Asian soldier surrendered to Ameri- can paratroopers in the Allied invasion of Normandy. Although his captors believed he was Japanese, he was in fact Korean. His name was Yang Kyoungjong. In 1938, at the age of 18, Yang had been forcibly conscripted by the Japanese into the Kwantung army in Manchuria. A year later, he was captured by the Red army after theB attle of Khal- khin-Gol and sent to a labour camp. In 1942, the Soviet mil- itary authorities drafted him, along with thousands of other prisoners, into their forces. He was soon taken prisoner by the German army at the Battle of Kharkov in Ukraine, and by 1944 he was wearing German uniform. He was sent to France to serve with an Ostbataillon supposedly boosting the strength of the Atlantic Wall at the base of the Cotentin peninsula, inland from Utah Beach. After time in a prison camp in Britain, he went to the United States where he said nothing of his past. He settled there and finally died in Illinois in 1992. In a war which killed so many millions of people and stretched around the globe, this reluctant veteran of the Japa- nese, Soviet and German armies had been comparatively for- tunate. Yet Yang remains perhaps the most striking illustration of the helplessness of most ordinary mortals in the face of what appeared to be overwhelming historical forces. Experiences can mark a whole life. Earlier this year, I heard from a German friend that her sister’s father-in-law had died. His last words were: “I can hear the cracking of the ice,” the result of an intense childhood memory of East Prussia in Janu- ary 1945, when his mother took her children across the ice of the Frisches Haff to escape from theR ed Army. The ice began crack- ing all around, with many civilians falling through it to freeze and drown. Many aspects are not as they appear on the surface, as I have stituting the first truly global war. learned over the years. I remember as a young officer in Ger- Although the Germans and the Japanese did not coordinate many based next to Belsen concentration camp, being horrified their strategies, events in the Pacific and inE urope affected each by a memorial to the French Jews who had died there. It stated: other. But for those fighting it, they could have been wars fought “Aux Juifs français qui sont morts pour la gloire et la patrie.” I on different planets. On 9th May 1945, when US Marines were found the idea of French Jews dying for glory and the fatherland still fighting onO kinawa and they heard the news of the German quite grotesque. Many years later I mentioned this to the French surrender in Europe, their reaction was “So what?” historian Henry Rousso. He replied: “I entirely understand your The memory of the second world war hangs over Europe, an reaction, but you are completely wrong. It was the French Jews inescapable and irresistible point of reference. Historical par- themselves who insisted after the war that memorials to their allels are usually misleading and dangerous. The threat of eco- dead should have exactly the same wording as those of all the nomic collapse now is not the same as the threat of Nazism and French. This was because they would never forgive Vichy for hav- war. But the current crisis still poses a threat to parliamentary ing tried to take away their French citizenship.” democracy in Europe. It may awaken the nationalist monsters It is important to understand the continuing, confused fas- which the European ideal had tried to consign to history. cination with the second world war. For most of us, the great Today it is very hard to appreciate the huge historical forces unspoken question is how would we have behaved in the face of that killed some 60m to 70m people, or even more. Chinese danger and when forced to make major moral choices. historians now claim that more than 40m of their countrymen But the war also fascinates many of the young because died, double the number that had been assumed earlier. And we now live in a post-military society; a health and 38 europe’s long shadow prospect december 2012 safety environment almost devoid of personal risk and and the media the second world war remains the dominant ref- moral decisions. Those brought up in this new civilian age are erence point for conflicts and crises. therefore intrigued by those very personal questions: How Some three months before the beginning of the 2003 Iraq would I have measured up? Would I have survived? And even: war, the Financial Times asked me to write an article on why would I have shot or mistreated civilians and prisoners? the Battle of Baghdad would be another Stalingrad. I tried to History, which used to be written in collective terms—the explain that history never repeats itself, but another half dozen history of a country, an army or a political movement—has newspapers had exactly the same idea. Wars and crises are by itself become more personal, with much greater emphasis on definition unpredictable and this encourages a tendency to the individual. This change of attitude can be traced back to look backwards for comparisons rather than forwards. the as yet unanalysed revolution of the late-1980s and early- There is an interesting paradox here: that the British media, 1990s; that is, the combination of geopolitical change with which so enjoyed depicting our army as stiffly traditional and the end of the Cold War; the communications revolution, with old fashioned, revealed how utterly out of date they were in the invention of the internet; the economic upheaval, with Big their own ideas of warfare. Newspaper editors felt compelled Bang and the spread of globalisation; the decline of collective to draw parallels with something which they knew, and which or tribal loyalties—with both the trade unions in Britain and their readers recognised. the traditional officer class disintegrating at the same time; a Politicians have their own particular blind spot. They tend growing scepticism about authority and all the other anti-hier- to forget before every conflict that war, rather like social engi- archical changes, leading to a much less deferential society; neering, has a troubled history of producing consequences very and the emphasis on the individual, whether Margaret Thatch- different to what was originally intended. It is the law of unin- er’s championship of the family over the state or John Major’s tended consequences writ large. And nobody is worse than pol- rhetoric of citizenship. It will take historians many years before iticians in making grandiose historical parallels, trying to put they can assess whether all these changes coming together were themselves on pedestals along with Churchill or Roosevelt. The purely coincidental or whether they were inextricably linked. effect on strategy can be disastrous. Due to the rise of individualism in the late 1980s and 1990s, One could argue that the whole of the so-called “war on ter- expectations of historical writing soon followed a similar route. ror” was misdirected by the way that George W Bush imme- A new generation, which had shrugged off the ideals of collec- diately compared the 9/11 attacks to Pearl Harbour. This tive loyalty, suddenly wanted to know about the experiences resurrected the mentality of state-on-state warfare, when in and suffering of ordinary people, caught up in huge events and fact the threat from al Qaeda was an international security with no control over their own fate. issue. The neo-conservatives in the department of defence— But the key point is that, still after 70 years, for politicians Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith—all com- pared Saddam Hussein to Hitler when, if anything, he was like Left, youth unemployment rates across the EU; centre, refugees a poor man’s Stalin. Tony Blair did the same, forgetting how flee the Franco regime during the Spanish civil war; right, Greek Anthony Eden at the time of Suez compared Nasser to Hitler. anti-austerity protesters during German chancellor Angela The second world war had indeed become the dominant refer- Merkel’s visit to Athens in October ence point for almost all subsequent conflicts.

Youth unemployment in the EU (Unemployed people, including those in education or training, between the ages of 15 and 24 inclusive)

Germany 8.3 Netherlands 8.5 Austria 8.7 Malta 14.0 Denmark 14.3 Slovenia 16.4 Belgium 17.5 Czech Republic 18.3 Finland 19.9 United Kingdom 22.0 France 22.7 Sweden 22.8 Romania 24.8 Estonia 25.1 Hungary 26.7 Cyprus 26.8 Poland 26.9 Latvia 27.4 Bulgaria 28.2 Ireland 30.5 Italy 30.5 Slovakia 33.8 Portugal 34.1 Lithuania 34.3 Spain 48.9 Greece 49.3

SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION (4TH QUARTER 2011) prospect december 2012 europe’s long shadow 39

President John F Kennedy, who had been against interven- dor in Madrid, pointed out how remarkable it was that despite tion in Vietnam before he came to power, was turned round the terrifying levels of youth unemployment in Spain, there had by the journalist Joseph Alsop and realpolitik professors who been an astonishingly low level of social disorder. The demon- became White House advisers. They persuaded him that fail- strations of the “Indignados,” the young Spaniards who have ure to intervene in Vietnam would be as dangerous as the pol- taken to the streets to protest against austerity measures and icy of appeasing Hitler, which his father Joseph Kennedy had unemployment, have been passionate but not violent. His theory strongly supported when US ambassador in London. It was an is that the memory of the horrors of the Spanish civil war is act- embarrassment that had always haunted the young president. ing like a nuclear threat in the background. He may well be right. Greece also suffered from a civil war, and although there have hy are historical parallels so dangerous when been a considerable amount of violent protests in Athens, folk considering the present European crisis? A few memory is likely to hold the country back from outright conflict. months ago, a leading figure inB ritain asked me Surprisingly little has been said in the newspapers about one to come up with second world war parallels for a of the main weights on the Greek national budget: the totally Wspeech he was making, to underline the seriousness of the situa- disproportionate spending on their armed forces, swollen by tion. I sympathised with his frustration but begged him to avoid the bogeyman figure ofT urkey. One foreign minister revealed any comparison with the second world war. It was bound to be in private earlier this year that the Greek armed forces have misunderstood or twisted. bought so many Leopard tanks that they can hardly fit them But there is one parallel which might be valid. The general all in along the strip of frontier facing Turkey. The Greek gov- public as a whole is as badly informed today about the dangers ernment must be afraid of cutting the defence budget back facing the eurozone as the populations of Britain and France as much as is needed through fear of another coup. In fact, were in the late summer of 1938 during the Czechoslovak cri- according to the editor-in-chief of Politiken in Denmark, a sen- sis. The poet WH Auden called that period “a low, dishonest ior Greek official privately warned that their army is ready to decade.” Politicians have to sell hope. No Cassandra ever won take over at any moment, but senior officers have no idea how an election. Churchill, who had been dismissed as a war mon- to run the economy. Presumably they also know that a military ger, only came to power after the crisis had broken in all its fury. takeover would automatically force Greece’s ejection from the When my book on the Spanish civil war was published in EU as well as the euro. 2005, journalists in Madrid asked me in all seriousness whether What are the dangers and threats to parliamentary democ- it could ever happen again. I replied that thank goodness the racy in Europe? Can the fundamental contradictions in the same conditions simply did not exist. The vicious circle of fear euro project be overcome? The dynamic of the moment seems between right and left, which had originated in the extreme to be that political integration must be drastically acceler- cruelty by both sides in the Russian civil war, did not exist. ated to make up for the flagrant paradoxes that existed from But some things have begun to change alarmingly since then. the euro’s very foundation and were scandalously ignored. We again face the danger of a world depression and we are begin- The same foreign minister argued to me last autumn that the ning to see mass unemployment in some countries, especially in economic situation was so grave that Europe must adopt a southern Europe. Last year, Giles Paxman, the British ambassa- presidential system with direct elections. That idea is now euters, getty images getty Behrakis/ R euters, annis Y © 40 europe’s long shadow prospect december 2012 becoming general currency in top European circles. Economic and political control would be drastically centralised with vir- tually no accountability. This would be nothing less than an elective dictatorship bringing with it the threat of nationalism, the very thing the European project intended to avoid. In Greece, there is already a bitter hatred of the Troika: the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund. The ECB and German politi- cians are depicted as Nazis, imposing another occupation on Greece. At one point it looked as if German tourists would be too afraid to go to Greece this summer, and no Greek politi- cian from Pasok or New Democracy dared walk openly on the streets of Athens. Political fragmentation has already begun there, with Golden Dawn on the extreme right and Syriza on the left led by Alexis Tsipras. Tsipras was quoted as saying to the EU that, “if you sink us we will take you down with us.” But at the last moment, the pro-European New Democracy just managed to prevail over Syriza in the elections on 17th June to form a coalition. In other countries we are also seeing the decline of centrist parties with the accompanying rise of extremists or alterna- tive groups. In Italy, the Five Star party of the comedian Beppe Grillo swept past all the traditional parties in local elections and is now expected to take 12 per cent of the vote in national elections. In Germany, recent poll estimates gave the Pirate Party 10 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Greens, even if this was not quite confirmed in the North Rhine-Westphalia elec- tion. Is this development similar to the 1930s, where countries with systems of proportional representation found themselves vulnerable to political polarisation and disorder? Is the whole European project doomed to achieve the opposite of what it set out to achieve? Will the European centralising ideology, and kets no longer exist to punish over-spending. This defiance now the need proclaimed by some leaders to exert a quasi-dic- of cause and effect is slightly reminiscent of that bankrupt tatorship over the eurozone, exacerbate the militant national- France after the Liberation in 1944 when the Parisian intel- ism that it sought to make redundant? The former head of the ligentsia convinced themselves that progressive ideas would European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, even argued in triumph over the “filthy money” of the capitalist system. And a speech on 17th May that eurozone states should be able to that in turn was a curious echo of the Grandmaison doctrine declare fellow members bankrupt, and take over their tax and on the eve of the first world war, which stated that French élan spending policy. Germany is in the unenviable position of being in a bayonet charge could somehow overcome heavy artillery. the only country with the clout to take on such a role, and there If Europe starts to suffer from copycat riots—rather asB rit- are already too many insults about a Fourth Reich in Europe. ain experienced last year—they are likely to start in France The argument that it was European unification which pre- where the culture of protest and the battle cry of “Aux barri- vented another war on the continent was always a completely cades!” lie deep in the national subconscious. Whether faced false one. It is simply a question of governance. Democracies do with farmers dumping cabbages in the Champs Elysées or pro- not fight each other.T he key question is therefore the inverse: testers taking to the streets, French governments have usu- will a dramatic increase in the democratic deficit lead to ally caved in rapidly. But no longer will they be able to borrow unrest and even conflict as Europe “tears itself apart,” in the more money to buy off the demonstrators. controversial phrase of the governor of the Bank of England? France always wanted a United Europe in order to counter- The euro crisis has been a train crash in very slow motion, balance the power of the United States. Fiscal union with the accompanied by several years of political and economic denial. euro was politically driven, with the consequences we now know The ideology of European unity has been such an article of only too well. At the time, politicians knew Greece had flattered faith that it has prevented its political establishment from its figures and that the country had used complex financial tech- understanding the harsh reality of a wider world. Those argu- niques to lower its debt-to-GDP ratio. The country’s application ing for a relaxation of austerity, such as the new French gov- to join was waved through nonetheless, as political objectives ernment, are trying to wish into being their ideal international took precedence. Even the Germans, who knew that Greece’s order. One of Hollande’s ministers, Arnaud Montebourg, even figures were fabricated, let them through, but whether a linger- calls for “de-globalisation,” as if clocks can be turned back, ing sense of guilt over the terrible wartime occupation of Greece with tariff barriers reintroduced. Globalisation and the inter- played a part, we cannot tell. In any case, Greece, with its sud- net go hand in hand. den demands for huge compensation, is certainly trying to push The left in France dreams of a world in which the bond mar- that button rather too late in the day. prospect december 2012 europe’s long shadow 41

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, with Fran�ois Hollande, the French president, in Berlin in May

in the euro policy elite still hope that loose monetary policy and higher inflation rates will provide an escape hatch. But addressing fiscal issues through monetary means generally doesn’t work, and it does nothing to improve the competitive- ness of the struggling euro-area periphery.”

he closer the possibility of a euro disintegration comes, the more vicious the downward spiral is likely to be. Investors pull out, companies make sure that they keep no deposits in the zone, and citizens in TGreece, Italy and Spain withdraw their euros, which risks a run on local banks. Those who can will move their money out- side their country even more than they are at the moment. The “bank-jog” of withdrawals in Spain and Greece may turn into a full sprint, and that is regarded as the most dangerous poten- tial trigger of a mass panic. Most of the money taken out has gone to Germany, but astonishingly, the German public is only now just waking up to the dangers that their economy has been taken hostage as a result. The central banks of the stronger economies, especially the Bundesbank, have a huge “counterparty” risk to Greece, Italy and Spain from the way that the payments system in the eurozone works. Under this—the “Target2” system—one con- sequence of businesses and households taking their money out of the bank accounts of deficit countries is that the Ger- man central bank ends up lending corresponding sums to the central banks of those countries. This is because Target2 makes the Bundesbank balance all deposits received from, say, Greece with an equivalent loan to the Greek central bank. The Curiously, American neo-conservatives also favoured a cen- liability for Germany is mounting vertiginously. This July, the tralised Europe. This was partly because they felt that it would German central bank already had €750bn of claims on other make Europe more like them—they cannot resist remaking the central banks, equivalent to more than a third of German world in their own image—but more immediately they hoped GDP. These are euros owed to the Bundesbank by the cen- that a stabilisation of the eurozone would avert global eco- tral banks of the economies where there has been the greatest nomic catastrophe. One of George W Bush’s speech writers capital flight, namely those of Greece, Italy and Spain. Spain said a few months ago at a private party that a stadium should alone accounted for €450bn. I dread to think what the true fig- be hired so that British eurosceptics could all get together and ure is now as the withdrawal of euros gathers pace in the south. beat their breasts and shout “We were right! We were right! We If the euro becomes cheaper because the popular revolt knew it couldn’t work!” and then they could start to think how against austerity prods the ECB into printing money, it still to solve the problem. He did not add that perhaps the reverse will not solve Europe’s deeper problems. “Depreciation,” should also be organised, with eurodreamers made to chant: Boone and Johnson added, “amounts to a nontransparent way “We were wrong! We were wrong!” and then they should start for the Germans to bear more of the costs of the failed euro to consider alternatives to the federal super-state. They should experiment as their purchasing power falls, but investors will perhaps remember that both in war and in peace, reinforcing still prefer Germany to Greece. It also increases the risk that failure through obstinacy has always tended to turn a crisis European and international investors may simply lose confi- into a catastrophe. dence in the euro, leading to mayhem in the area’s leveraged Thinking in American business circles has not necessarily financial markets.” followed the neo-conservative prescription, especially as the Attempting to cope with the short term dangers, with- crisis deepened. Peter Boone and Simon Johnson of the Peter- out any guarantee of success, may well lead to an acceler- son Institute for International Economics, wrote on Bloomb- ated decline of Europe in the longer term when faced with the erg earlier this year: “One potential way forward would be to challenges from the east. The need for the centralisation of create a European-level fiscal union that assumes all national political and economic power in the EU and the ECB to force debt, much like what Alexander Hamilton did as first US sec- countries, banks and companies to adhere to rigid new regu- retary of the Treasury. That isn’t going to happen in mod- lations, tantamount to war socialism, will make them incapa- ern Europe. Why would German taxpayers and savers agree ble of competing with Asian economies. And as the value of to pay for the good times previously enjoyed in Greece, Italy the euro is forced down, we will probably see China and India / R euters AGENCY

A or Spain? Who could even ask them to do so? As a result, all buying more European companies. We have been here before

© BP © eyes are turning to the European Central Bank, because some a generation ago when Japan began an aggressive takeover 42 prospect december 2012 policy, and the country has since experienced a long period of way. The threat of war and the threat of economic collapse are stagnation [see p50]. But surely it was the lack of flexibility very different, because the former tends to unite while the latter in the Japanese business model, combined with a social rigidity, divides. The truth then about the menace of Nazi Germany might which led that country into this. China and India are not Japan, have braced public attitudes far better for the struggle ahead. But even if China is now suddenly suffering the problems of an age- the terrible paradox today is that if governments are now sud- ing population. denly honest about the real scope of the threat, the effect is likely Just because we in the west have enjoyed a rising standard of to hasten and worsen the disaster. living over several centuries, we are deluding ourselves if we try to believe that has somehow become an inalienable human right. erhaps the only consolation is that we are living in an ide- Christine Lagarde’s controversial interview earlier this year, in ological vacuum. Europe is not torn between the Man- which she said she had more sympathy with sub-Saharan Africa ichaean false alternatives of Stalinism and Nazism as it and which caused such fury in Greece, was probably also a veiled was in the 1930s. But both socialism and now capital- warning that parts of Europe may soon face conditions akin to Pism also appear to have failed. Socialism because it depends on those of the third world. Europe is also much more vulnerable to state spending and now all states have to cut back. And capitalism what one might call the moral crisis of capitalism. That sense of is in crisis, partly because of the self-destructive volatility which entitlement, of materialistic human rights in social security that Marx identified, but also because the poor are getting poorer for has grown over the years, has produced an angry disbelief at any the first time, and thus do not have the means to spend to create suggestion that this cannot continue and that government spend- growth. Capitalism has also entered a downward cycle because ing needs to be cut. At the same time, European populations are incestuously corrupt dealing in financial centres is now alienating reacting against another integral part of the change. In the past, the very mass of the middle class on whom stock markets depend. capitalism has always been able to justify its inherent inequalities Some claim that capitalism always manages to reinvent itself, but on the grounds that, however wide the gap, at least the poor were this time it looks unlikely. slightly better off.T hat is patently no longer the case. Protesters, such as the Occupy movement, may rage against This is the other aspect of the hidden revolution, which we are the greed of bankers, but if one cannot disinvent the internet and not yet prepared to discuss openly, because the consequences are roll back globalisation, where can countries expect to go? Autar- so socially toxic. With the communications and globalisation rev- chy—that attempt at national self-sufficiency—can only be the olution which I mentioned earlier, we have passed a tipping point. solution of a dictator, whether of the left or the right. It seldom The wages of the semi-skilled and unskilled stagnate or are driven worked in the past and it is even harder to see it working today. In down in a world economy that searches ruthlessly for the lowest an inventive, fast-moving world, inflexibility is fatal. And nothing wage costs. Automation on the shop floor is now the main driver could be more inflexible than the euro system, as we have seen. in increasing industrial productivity, so fewer and fewer skilled Over the last few months, in Spain especially, there has been a workers are needed. But at the upper levels of the management terrible sense emerging that it cannot recover within the euro. hierarchy, productivity increases are achieved by recruiting inter- The Spanish will just be ground down and down, with more and nationally from a small pool of the brightest and the best. In a more useless sacrifices, as further rounds of cuts, accompanied world of instant communication, decision-making is increasingly by further rounds of bailout borrowing, destroy any hope for the concentrated. This is one of the reasons why salaries and bonuses future. This is what risks creating the bitterness and national have increased exponentially at the very top. resentments which encourages people to listen to demagogues And yet it is not so long since the New Economics Foundation, and turn their backs on democracy. a left-wing think tank inB ritain, wanted the working week to be cut to 21 hours to help ease unemployment, reduce stress and improve family life. People would earn less, the foundation admit- ted, but “they would have more time to carry out worthy tasks.” Others still argue that job-sharing would reduce unemployment. But, crudely put, it is always going to be far more cost-effective to squeeze one good lemon thoroughly than several partially. Can Europe afford to bring in the social luxury of job-sharing when faced with the strong winds of competition from the east? Another favoured idea is the Tobin tax to deter short term cur- rency transactions. We should all support this so-called Robin Hood tax if it could be imposed effectively on a world-wide basis, but a partial version covering just Europe would constitute eco- nomic self-mutilation. Like water moving downhill, money finds a way around obstacles or sweeps them away. Fewer and fewer inter- national bankers now believe that the euro system can survive. Most think that it is just a question of when it will unravel, at least in part. But because the opportunities for a reasonably controlled dismantling of the system have been rejected due to ideological obstinacy, the collapse when it comes is likely to be horrendous, and not just for those within the eurozone. Even the historical parallel about the public’s ignorance dur- “23 per cent is owned by China, 16 per cent by Saudi Arabia, 13 per ing the Munich crisis of 1938 is misleading in a very important cent by Dubai, 46 per cent by my bank and 2 per cent by me”

44 prospect december 2012 Hanging by a thread As defence cuts threaten the future of special forces, exclusive images reveal how the Iranian embassy siege, which brought the SAS worldwide fame, could have gone badly wrong james elwes all pictures © p. winner p. © pictures all

Last month’s article on the future of special forces by Bob Podesta: During [General Peter] de la Billière’s time [direc- Robert Fry, former Deputy Commanding General in Iraq tor, SAS 1979-1983], there was a lot of talk about what the task of (“Who will fight the next wars?”), led to an approach from the regiment was. They decided to build the anti-terrorism team. two former members of the Special Air Service (SAS). [On the 5th May raid] There was no build-up towards it. This Their recollections of storming the Iranian embassy in was something that happened suddenly and the regiment was London on 5th May, 1980, the event that brought fame ready to go. We were lucky to have an ex-regiment guy stationed to the British army’s most secretive unit, show that the in the police in London and he gave us the nod that something was assault did not go as smoothly as politicians later claimed. happening at the embassy. Suddenly the team was stood to. So do their photographs, published here for the first time We were all taken aback by the public reaction. The regiment in the media. But they echo one of Fry’s points—that operated in great secrecy and it was after the embassy siege that it forces’ awareness of their political value is a weapon in really came into the public eye. their fight for survival. Pete Winner: It was the massacre at the Munich Olympics of Bob Podesta, 25 years in the SAS, trained the team that the early 1970s that was the main trigger to get the hijack team broke the siege. Pete Winner, 18 years in the SAS, was one going [seen in planning room, opposite, top]. That is just prior of its members. Both names are pseudonyms. to getting the codeword “ROADACCIDENT” [opposite, second from top]. Success is maximum entry points attacked simultane- Pete Winner and Bob Podesta spoke to James Elwes, deputy editor, Prospect ously. Everyone else was moving into final assault positions, ready prospect december 2012 Hanging by a thread 45 to abseil down the back of the building. At the same time, the guys at the front were getting ready to blow the windows out and another team was moving in to take out their entry point. That is just prior to the diversionary charge going off when we blew in the glass dome in the light well. Then these guys were abseiling down the back of the building. You can see the red team guys coming down the back of the building [third image from top]. Their objective was to enter the second floor, where we knew the hostages were, to make for the terrorist stronghold and neutralise the threat. Things started to go wrong. You can see a guy whose abseil equipment jammed and he is swinging in the flames [main image, left.] That was the leader of the red team, a Fijian guy, who carried too much ammo. It caused the abseil harness to jam. This was 30 odd years ago and the equipment wasn’t that good. The guy was badly burned because he didn’t have flameproof overalls. We told them we should have flameproof overalls and we were told to use the bog standard black overalls. The guy suf- fered because of it. We had lost the element of surprise. Can you see that one guy with his gas mask burned off? M[ ain picture, figure on left with face uncovered]T ommy Palmer—you can use his name as he died in Northern Ireland [8th February 1983, aged 31. Car overturned in Lurgan during an operation.] He is looking in to see the terrorist, who had soaked the carpets and curtains with petrol, and they were on fire. He got a bead on the terrorist with his MP5. He got a “click”: a dead man’s stoppage. Gun jammed. Tommy chased the terrorist, Hassan, down the cor- ridor. Hassan was fishing for a grenade. Tommy caught up with him, got him by the scruff of the neck and gave him the good news. A round in the back of the head and killed him instantly. The plan was the “deliberate action,” a well-planned approach: a “stand by, stand by—go” and everyone attacks simultaneously. But one of the abseilers put his foot through a window and the head terrorist heard the noise and he said to the head negotiator that he could hear suspicious noises. Then the commander Hector gave the “Go go go,” which is the code for an “immediate action” rather than “deliberate action.” An “immediate action” is pretty hairy: got to go in fast and hit them like an express train. We were on a sticky wicket then. The guy hooked up on his abseil harness—it was all avoidable. We recommended using lad- ders, but they wanted abseiling because it was much more glam- orous. We nearly paid a real price for that. It could have blown the thing wide open. When my team—blue team—ran out the back of number 14 [next door] we could see all this happening; the chaos on the second floor balcony. We couldn’t use a charge to blow in the back door because the blast would have sent shrapnel up to the guys on the balcony. So we had to use a sledge hammer—another problem area that held up the speed of entry. The only part that went smooth was when they blew the glass dome in that led to the second floor, we had two teams climb down. Their objective was to completely ignore anything they saw, hos- tages, terrorists or whatever and run straight up the stairs to the third and fourth floor. No “blue-on-blue,” [friendly fire incident] that’s what we were worried about then. They then took out the third and fourth floor and that went smoothly. Politicians are wafflers, talk a good fight.B ut when it comes to it, they need a force like the SAS. That’s why special forces will get on for the foreseeable future. The politicians love a guaranteed success. That’s why Maggie loved us. After the siege we had an open cheque book. It resurrected her career. When she committed us to that and it was a success, afterwards she could do no wrong. 46 prospect december 2012 Saving Mrs Smith The NHS needs competition—but may not get it philip collins

he shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, is a great objective will, in turn, require many providers and effective com- fan of Everton football club and no mean player him- petition between them. Far from being opposing sides, integration self. In a distant age I shared a pitch with him as two and competition run together. But, at the moment, those who are of the early members of Demon Eyes, the Labour demanding that the NHS simply integrates, as if by magic, are party football team. So I have weekly evidence that having the better of the argument. TBurnham absolutely understands that competition and collabo- Stripped of the professional vernacular, what does integra- ration are not incompatible. He is well aware that the competi- tion actually mean? Someone with an illness will often go through tion from the other team spurred ours to acts of collaboration in many NHS institutions. Not every medical professional will be the quest to win the league (which we did, seeing as you’re ask- located at the same place, nor even have the same employer. The ing). The Demon Eyes team did not fragment as we competed. result, from the point of view of the patient, can be a time-con- Indeed, it was the very act of competition that brought us to a suming mess. A properly integrated NHS would obviate the need peak of integration. for all this to-ing and fro-ing. If a single body could guide the Burnham might reflect on this lesson in his current post before patient through the maze, the “pathway,” to lapse into the jargon, a false argument traps him into a position from which there is it would be so much easier to navigate. There is also resilient evi- no escape. There is no seminar on healthcare at the moment in dence that integration improves the quality of specialist services which learned people do not talk about the need to integrate the such as cardiac, cancer and stroke care. National Health Service. If the rise of chronic diseases is not to Put like that, it is hard to be opposed to greater integration in consume all the money available, it is said, the fragmented NHS the NHS. The aggregate case is unanswerable, too. The Office will need to come together. This move, the argument goes on, will for National Statistics has projected that the 14.5m people aged require the tempering of previous moves towards competition, 60 and over will have grown to 16.4m by 2020. Within this group, which is intrinsically inimical to co-operation. there will be an increase in the oldest of the old. Many more people The implied conflict is a false one. The NHS is a fragmented institution already and any attempt to integrate its many services Andy Burnham leads a protest from the centre is bound to fail. There are great virtues to a more against the proposed changes to integrated NHS but that goal can only be achieved if services are the NHS in March integrated around individuals, not around the system. That

Philip Collins is a writer for The Times prospect december 2012 saving mrs smith 47 will end up living alone and there will be an increased requirement of care trusts by the King’s Fund in 2005 concluded that struc- for carers. The NHS is not structured to deal with this pattern of tural integration had not really done anything to bring teams need. It is currently set up as an episodic care service in an era together. “The New NHS,” a white paper published in 2000, when illness is no longer episodic. Long-term conditions such as was another attempt to wish integrated care into being. Noth- diabetes, asthma and dementia account for 75 per cent of NHS ing much came of it. spending, and all of these require integrated services. It was for all these reasons that the NHS Confederation, in a You might well be wondering why such an evidently good and recent international survey of health systems, suggested that inte- necessary reform has not already happened. There are two main gration that is mainly focused on bringing organisations together ways in which integration can run through the current labyrinth is not likely to produce better care and may not even produce any of NHS structures. Existing bodies can merge, to combine func- significant integration at all. Economies of scope and scale, they tions and make the system simpler. Or a temporary team can be argued, took a long time to realise, if they ever appeared at all. brought together by the relevant authority and contracts drafted Professional demarcations and turf wars were always a problem. with incentives for them all to work together. The NHS Confederation’s conclusion was clear: “Many attempts Hereby hangs the first difficulty. An integrated system at integration have started at the organisational level. A more prof- demands that somebody (or some body) is in charge. There are itable approach might be to start at the level of the frontline team only three candidates for the vital job of prime mover. A hospital and the patient journey and then consider the most appropriate can extend its reach, the general practitioner (GP) can take on a organisational form to deliver the required level of integration.” co-ordinating function, or some new agency can be invented to The case for pessimism on integration looks well founded. take on the task. You do not need to know much about the history As Walter Leutz, an associate professor at the Schneider Insti- of the fragmented NHS to know that there is no natural body of tute for Health Policy at Brandeis University, has written of the leaders to whom all the other professionals are happy to bow. The attempts to manage change by policy fiat: “You can integrate real story about the NHS is that fragmentation was written into its some of the services for all of the people, all of the services for origins. When, in 1948, NHS hospitals were nationalised, the con- some of the people, but you can’t integrate all of the services for sultants becoming salaried staff in hospitals that were owned by all of the people.” the state. Primary care, meanwhile, was established in GP services But politicians and professionals are insufficiently sensi- that were constituted as private franchises. tive to the fact that system integration does not work. That is because this argument is the cover for a more profound dispute t is not just that nobody is in charge and the NHS is consti- about change in the NHS. To counter-pose integration (good) tuted, a bit like the United States, to make it impossible for with fragmentation (bad) is an effective way for conservatives, anyone to take control. The very task of integration is colos- such as the British Medical Association, to fight off reform. sal anyway. In any given health authority, for example, it The argument was succinctly put in a paper from the Royal Iwill require the coming together of roughly 1000 people, spread College of GPs in response to the government’s latest reforms: across 15 professional cultures, to produce an integrated mental “The bill seeks both competition and better integration, which can health service. More than four-fifths of the services required to be seen as mutually exclusive; it is difficult to see how competition keep frail elderly people out of hospital are not, strictly speaking, rules could be framed to deliver both of these objectives. The fear health services. Even those services that fall within the fold of the is that it will no longer be possible to deliver integrated services in NHS are provided by a range of different people. We are asking practice, especially where integration relies on close collaboration the system to overcome the separation of budgets, the institu- between different providers and commissioners, and could be seen tional chasm between primary and secondary care and different as anti-competitive.” streams of information and data. What prospect that this com- The idea of integration has thus become a code word in which plex array of organisations will be integrated by the mere desire a covert argument is taking place. The fear encoded within it, that it should happen? however, is misplaced. Integration by national bureaucracy is a Despite the inherent fragmentation of the NHS, politicians hopeless endeavour. The only possible way in which integration and professionals continue to entertain the fond hope that they can feasibly develop, as it has been with the development of pol- can engineer integration from the centre in Whitehall. The Health icy for “problem families,” is if it is wrapped around the individ- and Wellbeing Boards, which were created by the 2012 Health and ual patient. That insight leads, in turn, to another. The best ally of Social Care Act, are the latest incarnation of the myth of integra- integration is competition. tion from the centre. The mission of these new, sinister-sounding, The best example of how integration has to take place around boards is, as always, to bring together the relevant teams so that an individual comes from Torbay and, in particular, the case of care magically becomes seamless. Mrs Smith. Peter Thistlethwaite’s paper for the King’s Fund is The hubris of yet another attempt is not lessened by the exam- required reading for anyone interested in the argument about ple of Gordon Brown’s government, which was the last to try integration. Torbay council had a poor reputation for the qual- this method with the introduction of Integrated Care Organisa- ity of its services. Over the years it had tried every method handed tions (ICOs). A recent evaluation of the pilots by the health care down from the central government to improve its offer to the local research body NuffieldT rust was not, however, encouraging: “The citizens, all to little avail. summary results of our work showed that… there was no evidence It only changed when Mrs Smith came along. Mrs Smith was that these sites were reducing the level of emergency hospital care. an 80-year-old resident. When the chief executive analysed the Overall, secondary hospital care costs for patients were not any journey Mrs Smith had to take through the various institutions of lower than expected.” Torbay’s health and social care landscape, he was horrified. She This is a repeat of what happened in the 1990s in the struc- had to endure numerous different assessments, repeating her

© John Giles/PA Wire Giles/PA John © tural mergers between health and care services. An evaluation story over and again. It could sometimes take days for relevant 48 saving mrs smith prospect december 2012 information to be relayed from one body to another. Mrs Smith around patients, not around the system. That objective will, in was well known in the local community and her plight resonated turn, require many providers and effective competition between with the staff.S he soon became a metaphor for a new way of work- them. Far from being opposing sides, integration and competi- ing, in which the professionals sought to fit around the needs of the tion run together. patient, rather than the other way round. This is confirmed by a report from theC o-operation and Com- There is just one other thing about Mrs Smith. She is ficti- petition Panel, an advisory panel to the department of health, tious. She was made up by Torbay officials to demonstrate how which investigated hospitals that were undergoing mergers their world worked for real people. Yet Mrs Smith was instantly between May 2011 and May 2012. In each case the trust was com- recognisable. She is, unfortunately, an archetype. Ever since Max peting with at least one rival to attract referrals. This led to direct Weber’s pioneering work on bureaucracy, we have known that one competition for patients based on reputation. It was clear that of the drawbacks of large systems is that individuals tend to get those hospital trusts that were subject to competition were more lost. Once Torbay decided to keep Mrs Smith in mind at all times, innovative in attracting referrals. But most interesting of all for they tore their bureaucracy up. current purposes is that the hospitals all understood that those Budgets were pooled to pay for new intermediate care serv- things that mattered to GPs were an important determinant of ices. Newly integrated care teams suddenly worked well with GPs whether they would secure patients. The competition, therefore, to help older people live independently in the community. Some was encouraging integration between the two usually separate team members were charged expressly with bringing together the parts of the NHS. many things that Mrs Smith needed. It is not just in football matches that co-operation and com- The revolution has been a thorough success. The use of costly petition can be seen in tandem. The best health systems, such as hospital beds has been reduced. Emergency hospital admissions Kaiser Permanente in Oakland, California, have a similar model. for those aged over 65, which is a major and unnecessary burden Each person or employer who contracts for their health care with on the NHS, have almost been eliminated. Transfers between Kaiser could just as well go somewhere else. It is a highly plural institutions are now expedited. The use of residential and nursing and competitive market. However, Kaiser’s main selling point is homes has fallen and there has been a lot more reliance on home its co-operative approach. care services. All told, the Mr and Mrs Smiths of Torbay are in bet- This marriage is a common feature of all modern supply ter health and more likely to be where they want to be, which is at chains. There are rivals to supply any consumer good, such as a home rather than in hospital, than they have been in many years. loaf of bread. The retailers then compete to sell it. But think of Approval from the official system has followed as theC are Quality the co-operation that must have taken place in order for the ingre- Commission has given Torbay excellent ratings. dients of that loaf of bread to come together in a bakery. Adam The example shows that integration works if it revolves Smith famously said that it is not out of the goodness of his heart around a patient. But the lesson goes deeper than that: inte- that the baker will bake you bread. His incentive is the sale. But gration works even better if that patient is in charge of the proc- in order to carry out that sale he needs an integrated process that ess. When patients take up the option of a direct payment or a produces an edible loaf. personal budget, they have the capacity to direct the care they In June 2011, on the Andrew Marr Show, Clare Gerada, chair of need. The system is forced to integrate because the sovereign the Royal College of GPs, had an illuminating exchange with patient makes it so. Stephen Dorrell, chair of the House of Commons health select There are already 338,000 personal budget holders in social committee. They agreed that integration of disparate services was care, spending £1 in every £7 spent by councils, and the idea has vital but disagreed entirely on how that should come about. now been extended to the NHS. The system works by making the Gerada demanded command and control; Dorrell thought that money available to the patient. On condition that a plan is agreed competition was the midwife of integration. They were having the with professionals, the patient is then free to purchase whatever argument that, in the desperate search for efficiencies as the they need to alleviate their condition, even if that involves stray- money runs out, will dominate the next phase of the NHS. It is ing beyond the existing providers and even beyond conventional very important that Dorrell wins the argument but, ranged health care goods. against the most impressive set of trade unions in British history, Some of the personal health budget pilot sites have brought it is far from likely that he will. together the referral, assessment, budget setting, planning and monitoring of personal budgets without many of the complexities of structural integration between the NHS and local authorities. Clearly, in order for an individual to genuinely get what they need, there has to be a multiplicity of providers. There is no point giving a Mrs Smith control of the budget and then prescribing exactly what she is permitted to purchase. The existence of individual con- trol, modified and negotiated in all cases with medical profession- als, implies a range of providers. It implies, in other words, a degree of competition. It is a myth that integration and competition are in terminal conflict. Indeed, the opposite is the case. The only way that integration can suc- cessfully be achieved is by organising services around individuals and the only way that can be achieved is by increasing the compe- tition in the system. There are great virtues to a more integrated NHS but that goal can only be achieved if services are integrated “I can’t get the figures to lie any more than they already are” The perfect gift

Treat a friend this Christmas Save 29% Don’t leave it until the last minute. Take advantage of our fantastic gi subscription offers and treat a friend or relative to a year of Prospect

This offer is valid until 6th December so order now. Save even more! Buy a second subscription and save 34%, buy a third and save 39%

First gi subscription: UK £34.99, Europe £44.99, ROW £48.99, US $74.99 Second gi subscription: UK £29.99, Europe £39.99, ROW £44.99, US $66.99 Third gi subscription: UK £24.99, Europe £36.99, ROW £39.99, US $60.99

To order Call 0844 249 0486 or +44(0)1795 414 957 If ordering from the US or Canada call 1-800-428-3003 or visit www.prospectmagazine.co.uk quote offer code CTC12P when you order

6XEVB$GB'HFLQGG  50 prospect december 2012 Generation J In Japan, many people will retire without having left their parents’ homes or marrying. Is that Europe’s fate—and China’s? andy davis

t was an uncomfortable moment when the train north from the level now common in western Europe. Wealth and ambition in Tokyo pulled into Fukushima, a city now synonymous with quality and aesthetics are all around you, from the way a formal catastrophic nuclear accident; after a brief stop, we headed dinner is presented to the feats of robotic design that the engineers further north to the region overwhelmed by the tsunami at Honda proudly show off. Asimo, their world-famous humanoid on 11th March, 2011, which left 16,000 confirmed dead, and unveiled in 2000, is now a highly-developed machine that can run Inearly 3000 missing. and kick a football; it is astonishing to see a robot unscrew the top From where I stood in the town of Otsuchi, you couldn’t see the of a bottle and pour the liquid perfectly into a paper cup without sea, and yet cars crushed by the 10 metre high wave lay in piles, crushing it or letting it slip as its weight increases. next to a mangled fire engine. Across the valley floor sat the con- While Japan, with its robots, microchips and skyscrapers crete bases of houses, shops and offices, destroyed by the water clad in neon lights, has long offered visitors a vision of tomorrow, and then bulldozed. Kazuyuki Usuzawa, a 28-year-old guide another reason to go there today is to catch a glimpse of a darker who lost his fiancée that day, explained that some had perished future. In the 1980s, Japan was riding high, the second largest because they remained behind after the initial earthquake, trying economy in the world, so much that bookstalls were full of pre- to find family members and neighbours. A large group of old peo- dictions it would soon overtake America. Tokyo had the most ple had gathered in a temple, which was swept away. Usuzawa told expensive land prices on the planet—in 1989, at prime locations visitors: “When you go back, embrace the people you love and tell in the Ginza district of Tokyo, a square metre of land was traded them.” But he also gave a different message.T hose that had sur- for as much as $215,000; Van Gogh’s Sunflowers sold to a Japa- vived, including some 200 children in school, had got out in time nese buyer for $39.9m in March 1987. But when the bubble burst, because they followed a very simple instruction: run for your life to sending property values and the stock market plummeting, Japan high ground and forget everyone around you. The authorities had plunged into a predicament from which its leaders have been una- concluded that this should be standard practice in future and that ble to find an escape. the advice should be much more forcefully given. Government debt has rocketed from 60 per cent of annual eco- If Japan became a society where everyone saves himself first, nomic output in the early 1990s to 230 per cent today. The number that would mark a profound change. There is no question that the of people who are of working age is shrinking—and so, then, are tsunami and nuclear meltdown at Fukushima were a shock to the tax revenues; there simply will not be enough working-age peo- nation, although some argue that they also reawakened the post- ple in future to support their elders on current levels of pension war resilience and drive that made Japan the world’s industrial income. Already, almost a quarter of the population is over 65; giant. But many say that for all the visible damage of the natural by 2025 they are expected to make up just under 30 per cent, and disaster, the deeper shock to Japan has come from 20 years of eco- by 2050, perhaps 36 per cent. You can see unfolding in Japan nomic paralysis—its “two lost decades”—which have shaken Japa- the spreading realisation among younger people that they will nese society into a different form; changing the kind of jobs people not enjoy the same security and support that their parents have do, how they do them, and even altering relations within families. enjoyed—with some startling and visible results. Japan faces three problems at once: painfully slow economic Munetomo Ando, an associate professor of economics at Nihon growth, rising government debt, and an ageing population. University, says that, at the moment, about two thirds of the work- There are clear warnings here for the developed world, where force is permanently and securely employed; these are the classic many countries share those problems—for Europe, obviously, Japanese company men (as a rule), who work their whole career at for America to some extent, and for Asian countries, includ- the same firm, climbing the ladder of seniority towards retirement ing China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. And and a good pension. The 35 per cent who are temporary workers Japan’s inability to escape from its economic stagnation means have minimal job security, few workplace benefits, and far inferior that an even greater crisis is still to come. “The situation is not pensions. Yet they have virtually no prospect of switching to the sustainable,” many acknowledge, or as Kohei Otuska from the other tribe. The end of university is the single best shot at landing a ruling Democratic Party of Japan puts it: “The deficit and debt secure, permanent job. Fail at that hiring round and your chances is something like an earthquake. It may come tomorrow or in 10 of success later are vanishingly small. Even moving from a perma- years, but it is coming.” nent job at one company to one at another is rare. For a visitor to Tokyo, it is hard to see how anyone could Ando’s figures suggest that about a decade from now, the describe such a wealthy and well-groomed country as being so fun- number of temporary workers will be as great as those in perma- damentally flawed. If this is an economy that is collapsing, it seems nent work—a growing contingent of Japanese effectively excluded to be going down in enviable style. Unemployment is about half from secure employment for life. As Yamada Masahiro, a profes- sor of sociology at Chuo University, puts it: “If you are outside the Andy Davis is an associate editor of Prospect system you have no guarantees, no protection, no opportunities.” prospect december 2012 Generation j 51 © TWPho t o/Corbis © Tokyo’s Akihabara electronics district: will young Japanese be able to afford their own homes and families?

One consequence of this is that Japan will soon become a soci- is because people want to create the traditional family but men ety in which significant numbers of people retire without ever hav- are unable to provide sufficient income,”M r Masahiro says. “The ing left their parents’ home. The proportion of unmarried 35-44 women stay with their parents and forever wait for their prince.” year olds living with their parents has almost tripled since 1990 to Even with Japan’s great strength as an industrial exporter, and 16 per cent and continues to rise. Some, says Masahiro, withdraw a population happy to put their savings into government bonds, it from the world of work entirely and rely on their parents’ earn- has struggled to counter the financial effects of this demographic ings or pension to support the household. “There have been cases trend. Sales tax is due to rise in two stages over the next couple in which some people have not reported their parents’ deaths and of years, but analysts do not project that this would be enough to have continued to live illegally on their pension income.” bridge the huge annual gap between the government’s spending Others earn enough from temporary jobs to finance their life- and its income. style—while remaining in their parents’ home—but they don’t Looking back over the two lost decades, what Japan might have earn enough to marry, given that traditional expectations of mar- done differently is, unsurprisingly, a theme of much debate. Per- riage have not yielded to economic pressure. Masahiro, who has haps they might have tried even more aggressive monetary easing coined the unflattering term “parasite singles” for working-age by the central bank, although the country was a pioneer of “quan- Japanese who are unmarried and living with their parents, says titative easing”—printing money, when interest rates could not be that almost 70 per cent of Japanese women insist their future hus- lowered any further. Might the government have raised the retire- band should earn at least ¥4m per year (£31,200). Only a quarter ment age? What if it had done more to encourage larger families? of unmarried men actually clear this hurdle. Or even encouraged large-scale immigration of foreign work- Yet polling shows that growing numbers of people aspire to ers? But these all represent significant social changes, not least have a traditional family life and the alternatives remain socially the notion of immigration, which remains politically toxic, even marginal: only one in 50 children is born out of wedlock and rates though many analysts argue that a supply of cheap foreign child- of cohabitation are similarly low. This unbridgeable gulf between care would enable far more of Japan’s highly educated women to expectations and economic reality has led to a crisis in what go out to work. Masahiro calls “couple formation,” while the population, starved Throughout the crisis, Japan’s political system has seemed of children, steadily shrinks. “The declining birthrate in Japan incapable of producing a government that could provide a 52 generation j prospect december 2012

solution. Since 2006, there have been six prime ministers. There population between now and 2050—and this at a time when the must be another general election before the summer of 2013; country is taking on growing liabilities to help secure the future many think this will result in a three-way grand coalition between of the euro project. The dangers of allowing debt to spiral just as the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the Liberal Democratic a country’s demographic outlook starts to darken are nowhere Party that dominated Japanese politics throughout its long dec- more powerfully illustrated than in Japan. ades of growth, and the People’s New Party, the junior partners in Less obviously, Japan’s example is a warning to much of Asia; the present DPJ-led coalition. Toru Hashimoto, the charismatic to China and Singapore above all, as those superstars of the world and populist mayor of Osaka, has recently announced the launch economy suddenly wake up to find that their workers are becom- of the Japan Restoration Party, which is exciting both interest and ing pensioners. Over the coming two decades, workforces across anxiety. Hashism, one person called it. But few seem to think this Asia will start to shrink, in some cases very rapidly, including would make much difference. those in Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. When There is surely no chance that Japan can grow its way out of their workforce is a smaller proportion of their population, it will its problems. Even if the birthrate picked up, having more chil- check their rate of growth. As Asia is currently the fastest growing dren is anything but a quick solution; for the first 20 years of their part of the global economy, that will have consequences for us all. lives or so, children simply swell the number of people relying on One lesson from Japan is that the intractable worsening of a the taxes paid by the working population. So a moment of crisis country’s finances is not an event but a process.P rogress towards appears inevitable—a point when Japan, finally, cannot meet its financial default happens so slowly that it’s almost impossible to obligations to pay state pensions, or to pay the debt holders who see, but it produces, over a decade or two, enormous and troubling have lent it so much. social change. Some of Japan’s problems are peculiarly Japanese, such A second lesson is that democratic politics may ultimately be as the gulf between conditions for permanent and temporary unable to deliver the scale of change required to confront the prob- workers, resistance to immigration, and the barely changing lem, until crisis arrives. Democratic governments must get elected expectations of marriage. Japan’s critics argue that its predica- and older people in Japan, as elsewhere, are much more likely to ment reflects a failure to adapt socially as much as a misjudge- vote than the young. Successive governments come and go safe ment of economic policy. But others argue that its instinct for in the knowledge that the moment of crisis did not occur on their social cohesion has been its strength in containing the great watch, while the country progresses steadily towards that point. strains of 20 years of stagnation—a strength not shared by many Third, when the actual default comes for Japan, and the of the other countries now facing similar problems. When my moment arrives when it can no longer pay its debts, its powerful interpreter rendered the English phrase “the canary in the coal- sense of social cohesion could enable it to tolerate the huge redis- mine,” she brought forth a knowing murmur from the room. tribution of wealth that will occur as the living standards of the “Japan is the front-runner for every economic problem,” a sen- older generation come under intolerable pressure and are forced ior official remarked. down. But no one should underestimate the strains that this places

© shiho fukada shiho © European countries, with their ageing populations, high lev- on a society, least of all Europe, where immense social pressures els of debt and, now, recession, face the same challenges. The are building up. number of Britons turning 65 this year reached a record of Japan forces us to ask whether our societies are strong, stable 726,000, a rise of 30 per cent over 2011, according to the and flexible enough to cope with the huge change that we are Office for National Statistics, as the children born in the undergoing—and with crisis, if it comes. When the pain 1947 baby boom reach retirement age. Ger- has to be shared out in Europe, we may find the sort of many, today the rock on which social cohesion and solidarity still evident in Japan is Europe’s hopes rest, faces a dra- in dangerously short supply closer matic decline in its working-age to home.

People queue to sleep inside a labour centre in Kamagasaki, a slum in Osaka NFC Business Benefits Advert (April):Layout 1 19/04/2012 14:32 Page 1

Support The National Forest Meet corporate, environmental and social responsibility objectives by supporting The National Forest. Efficient, Effective, Ethical Contact: Lynne Richards T: 01283 551211 E: [email protected] W: www.nationalforest.org 54 prospect december 2012 Let them learn English In India’s language wars, the poorest are deprived of the lessons that are the key to success zareer masani © getty images getty © An English class at Rajyakaiya School in Narlai village, Rajasthan, northern India

erched high up in an ugly Delhi tower block is a shrine Underlying such rituals is a growing conviction among India’s to the newest deity in India’s teeming pantheon—the most disadvantaged communities that the English language could Goddess of English. She has been invented by Chandra be their salvation from poverty and social exclusion. Bhan Prasad, a Dalit activist (from a caste formerly India, unlike China, has no truly national language of its own. known as Untouchables). His apartment is crammed Hindi, the central government’s official language, is an artificial, Pwith icons of the growing cult of worship he has founded. 20th century construct created by purging Hindustani, the collo- The goddess herself blazes forth from one wall in the lurid quial language of the north, of most of its Islam-derived Persian colours of a bazaar poster (see overleaf). Modelled on the Statue and Arabic words. Now, 65 years after independence, Hindi is still of Liberty, she is pictured against a map of India, wearing a sari a little spoken officialese one grapples with on government forms. and an English straw hat, standing on a computer and holding Even colloquial Hindustani, the language of Bollywood films, is aloft a giant pink pen. Beside the goddess hangs a portrait of spoken by no more than 40 per cent of the population. The rest her unlikely messiah, Thomas Babington Macaulay, the British of the subcontinent speaks hundreds of mother tongues, with 22 Whig historian and statesman who brought English education regional languages recognised in the Indian constitution, several to India in the 1830s. with their own script. Every year on 25th October, Chandra Bhan and his loyal band Amid this Babel, English remains the only lingua franca in of devotees gather here to celebrate Macaulay’s birthday as Eng- which Indians can communicate across their vast subcontinent. lish Day with a hymn of praise to the new deity: “Oh Devi Ma, After half a century of trying to replace it with Hindi, in 2007 please let us learn English! Even the dogs understand English.” the Congress party-led central government finally swung round to embrace the goal of English teaching in all primary schools. Zareer Masani is the author of “Macaulay: Pioneer of India’s Modernisation” (Random House India). His documentary “The Goddess of But populist politicians from both the left and far right still con- English” will air on 28th November on BBC Radio 4 demn English as the language of a privileged elite and campaign prospect december 2012 let them learn english 55 to replace it with regional vernaculars. At the forefront of India’s language wars are fascistic parties like the Shiv Sena, which Teach yourself Hinglish renamed Bombay Mumbai, and its even more militant breakaway Hinglish English faction, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (Army for Regenera- Himalayan blunder Huge mistake tion of Maharashtra State), whose storm-troopers go around forc- Cent per cent 100% ing shopkeepers to replace their English signs with Marathi, the Charge-sheeted arrested regional majority language. There are objections from more mod- Badmash Naughty erate quarters, too. In September, The Hindu, an influential news- Glassy In need of a drink paper, ran a passionate plea from a professor of English at Delhi Son stroke Nepotism (in Bangalore) University, complaining that both English and Hindi are “killer Gone for a six Something got ruined languages,” stifling India’s “healthy linguistic diversity.” Eve teasing Sexual harassment In India language has long been a potent banner around which Out of station Out of town to mobilise new forms of regional and national identity. When Tell me… How can I help you? the Congress party won independence for India in 1947, its plan To pass out To graduate to make Hindi the national language soon foundered on violent, To go for a toss To go haywire regionalist opposition, including anti-Hindi riots in the south. By Timepass Leisure activity lacking purpose the end of the 1950s, an uneasy compromise emerged. The bound- What’s your good name? What is your name? aries of India’s states were re-drawn on largely linguistic lines; Shoebite Blister most of them adopted the vernaculars of their regional majorities Goggles Sunglasses as their official language, andE nglish was retained indefinitely as Acting pricey Playing hard to get the bridging language of central government. Half a century on, English remains overwhelmingly the lan- guage of higher education, national media, the upper judiciary Macaulay’s children include, whether they like it or not, prom- and bureaucracy and corporate business. India claims to be the inent academics like Ashish Nandy, who champion the cause of world’s second largest (and some say largest) English-speaking regional vernaculars but still use English as their language of country. The figures vary enormously, but the most reliable is choice in their professional lives. According to Chandra Bhan, the around 10 per cent or 125m people. With projections that India’s Dalit activist, there is an element of hypocrisy here. “The under- middle class will continue to grow rapidly to 525m by 2025, most class has realised that the few who knew English controlled India’s of that huge number will have at least a smattering of English. academies, mass media, stock exchanges and all that,” he says. But it’s sobering to remember that only a minuscule number— “Those who are already in that elite now want to close the door on just 226,000—claim English as their mother tongue and feel us.” He mischievously points out that Ashish Nandy even speaks entirely at home in it. English to his dog Rockie. Opponents of English argue that it will always be limited to a Most of the political hostility to English now comes from minority. “Even among the Dalits, it will only create a small elite,” extreme regional chauvinists who condemn it as a Trojan horse says Ashish Nandy, a leading sociologist at the Centre for Devel- of globalisation, trampling on local identities. But here, too, there opment Studies in Delhi. “It will just be a privilegentsia.” He main- are double standards. The Thackeray political dynasty, who lead tains that students learn best in their own mother tongues and Marathi chauvinism in Bombay (despite their peculiarly angli- that only the vernacular languages can help the vast majority of cised surname), have no compunctions about sending their own Indians to access the global knowledge economy. Regional lan- children to English-medium schools. guages like Tamil and Bengali, he argues, with their long history That may be because of the inescapable economic reality that and millions of native speakers, could be just as viable as Chinese English is a vital passport to white-collar jobs and social mobil- or Japanese in bringing science and technology to the masses. ity. The gap between English haves and have-nots has created In the language wars of 21st century India, there are loud ech- what economists now identify as two distinct and separate labour oes of the 19th century battles that Macaulay fought against his markets in India. “Even if you flunk your school finals, if you can Orientalist opponents, who wanted to revive classical Indian lan- speak decent English, today you can get a nice job,” says Jerry guages like Sanskrit instead of importing English. Though less Rao, a Mumbai-based businessman and journalist. “But even if well known in the land of his birth, Macaulay is still a controver- you have a masters degree and your English is poor, you’re likely to sial figure in India today. Nationalists have traditionally accused end up in a labour market where salaries are significantly lower.” him of colonising Indian minds to create, as he put it himself, “a The importance of English has grown in proportion to India’s class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom service industries, which now account for as much as 55 per cent we govern; a class of persons Indian in blood and colour, but Eng- of GDP, and the economic message has finally got through to the lish in taste, in opinions, in morals and in intellect.” That angli- country’s political class. Most state governments are now respond- cised elite is still derisively labelled as “Macaulay’s children.” ing to strong public demand for English as the medium of instruc- Macaulay would have been proud of the enormous impact that tion in schools. A dramatic example this summer was the state this tiny class of colonial intermediaries has had in the century and of Karnataka, led by Hindu nationalists, which allowed 350 state a half since he fathered them. For all his racist dismissal of India’s schools to start offering English-medium classes, an increase of classical heritage, he was the first to foresee that theE nglish lan- 290 on the previous year. guage carried within it the seeds of the Empire’s own destruction. Take up at vernacular state schools has been falling, as India’s Western-educated Indians, he predicted, would inevitably absorb poor scrape together the funds to send their children to more liberal political values and end up demanding democracy and expensive, English-medium schools in the private sector. Most independence. aspirational of all are the so-called “convent schools” founded 56 let them learn english prospect december 2012

by various Christian missionaries. My own family’s domestic serv- widely divergent standards, and the only common denominator is ants in Bombay (yes, well-to-do Indians still have them) are a good what is sometimes derisively called “Hinglish.” Nissim Ezekiel, a example of the lure of English for those who can least afford it. poet from Mumbai’s now extinct Jewish community, captured its Our maid spends a third of her monthly salary to send her six-year- peculiar cadences in his poem “The Patriot”: old boy, Joel, to St Theresa’s, run by Catholic priests. Some months ago, when I visited the school to see if she was “I am standing for peace and non-violence, getting her money’s worth, it soon became clear that most of the Why world is fighting, fighting? children had little grasp of their medium of instruction. Why all people of world are not following Mahatma Gandhi? As I listened in on morning assembly, they recited the school I am simply not understanding. prayer parrot-fashion in a sing-song which was hard to identify Ancient Indian wisdom is 100 per cent correct, as English. Later, an English literature class consisted of I should say even 200 per cent correct.” children standing up in turn and reading mechanically from an Indian version of Mills & Boon. Their teacher To the Western ear, what makes Hinglish especially quaint is may have been indulging her own literary tastes, but its love of the continuous tense and the way it dispenses with arti- their parents would not have approved. cles like “the” and “a”, which don’t exist in Indian languages. My own favourite example is “Mother serious” (Mother is very ill), a hen I met the school’s principal, aptly handy excuse for skiving off work. My parents’ genera- named Father Goodwill, I asked why lit- tion would have dismissed all this as Babu English or tle Joel could barely speak a few words of the language of clerks. But Hinglish has become an English after a year at the school and how authentically Indian hybrid with a vibrant literature Whe could possibly study other subjects in a foreign lan- of its own. Its expressive synthesis of English with guage. The answer was fatalistic: most of the children Indian vernaculars makes it the medium of choice here were from vernacular homes where no English was for best-selling authors like Chetan Bhagat, who are spoken; but in another 50 years’ time better English would hugely popular with India’s new middle class. trickle down through the generations and India’s class “The new Indian elite is a very diverse, first hierarchy. generation elite,” says novelist Namita I couldn’t help wondering if Joel, and many thousands Devidayal, “and they don’t have that old like him, would be better off going to vernacular-medium snobbery about the Queen’s English. One schools and learning English as a second or foreign lan- finds a growing ease in recreating the language guage. A few days later, I visited a Marathi-medium school to suit one’s culture, which is a very hodgepodge where volunteers run classes in spoken English. The culture, and one that’s also comfortable in its own project’s organiser, Nilambari Rao, was convinced that they dysfunctionality.” were getting far better results than at many schools with the The trouble with Hinglish and “broken” Eng- more aspirational English-medium label. “On the low sal- lish is that they can cause mayhem when clear aries they get,” she explained, “the teachers themselves at and precise communication is required, whether many of these schools don’t speak good English. And since on a simple taxi ride or in more serious situations. the children are first generation learners, there’s no way India’s notoriously slow and inefficient law courts their learning of the language can be reinforced out- are a good example, with vernacular-speaking side the class. That’s a major problem in learning any judges having to produce rulings in English, foreign language, and English for them is a foreign based on oral evidence translated from a vari- language.” ety of local dialects by Hinglish-speaking clerks. Teaching English to upwardly mobile job-seekers “The higher judiciary speak relatively good Eng- has become one of India’s fastest growing industries. lish,” says Mihir Gheewala, a leading criminal One of the largest of these new language schools is a lawyer. “But quite often, when they hear a case national chain called VETA. When I visited one branch on appeal, they can’t understand the evidence in a crowded Mumbai business district, I met enthu- recorded by judges lower down whose Eng- siastic, young white-collar workers who were will- lish is poor.” ing to pay as much as half their monthly salary to Given its regional diversity and global attend an evening class in spoken English. But I The Goddess of English, from a poster ambitions, India clearly needs to embrace doubt they were getting their money’s worth, with for Chandra Prasad’s campaign a trilingual education system that turns out no audio-visual teaching aids and teachers whose people who are fluent in at least two Indian own English was far from fluent. Training centres like VETA languages plus English. For a country with a long history of lin- churn out people whose English may be barely comprehensible, guistic pluralism and assimilation, that should be an achievable as many of us discover when we speak to Indian call-centres. goal. But good, standardised English teaching, like the rest of the With most Indian employers complaining about a shortage of country’s creaking and overstretched infrastructure, urgently skilled English-speakers, that could have serious consequences for needs better regulation and new investment. Macaulay’s mes- the economy as a whole. Skilled labour has been India’s primary sage about English as the global language of modernity and Prasad C h a n dra bh o f comparative advantage during the so-called economic miracle of innovation seems as relevant today as ever before. But his Indian the last two decades. English, both as a skill in its own right and a children will need to work much harder to stay ahead of eager fast track to other skills, is now considered crucial by policy plan- new cohorts of English-speakers around the world from China

image C o urtesy image ners; but the jungle of unregulated English teaching is producing to Poland. PT Prospect Ad 7AW_1 11/09/2012 11:00 Page 1

Mandela’s Dream - A Political Tour - Jan 20-27, 2013 Almost two decades on from the end of apartheid, South Africa remains a success story. It is a multi-racial democracy and a regional power. But after 18 years in office, the party that fought so hard for change is failing to meet the needs of its supporters. Ordinary South Africans lack basic services, unemployment is high, and leading members of the ANC stand accused of corruption. This January, on an unprecedented tour, we examine where the “rainbow nation” is headed, and ask whether it can keep Mandela’s dream alive. Contact us at [email protected] or call 0843 289 2349

T: 0843 289 2349 www.politicaltours.com

A revolutionary concept for travellers passionate about politics and current affairs

Photo © Thys Dullart 58 prospect december 2012 Reality is not enough Will we demolish the distinction between our physical and virtual lives? christine rosen

uring New York Fashion Week this autumn, ing sites. Promoters of augmented reality technology want to Google co-founder Sergey Brin formed an make these interventions more sophisticated, seamless, ubiq- unlikely partnership with clothing designer uitous, and profitable. Diane von Furstenberg to promote an accessory Until now, augmented reality has been most popular in the with a difference: Google Glass, a prototype for world of video games. Millions of people worldwide have par- Dthe company’s first wearable computer. At the von Furstenberg ticipated in Geocaching games, outdoor treasure hunts where show, lithe models strutted down the runway wearing the futur- players register online, obtain coordinates from their host web- istic Glass, which resembles a sleek visor and includes a tiny site, and then use a GPS-enabled mobile phone to locate caches display screen over the right eye. This allows the wearer to take hidden in the “real world” by other players in the area. After pictures and videos, send emails, and browse the internet using finding the cache and returning it to voice-activated commands. Google is invested in the idea that its hiding place you are encouraged to the smartphone will eventually give way to the wearable com- make the physical experience digital by puter, just as the basic mobile phones of the 1980s and 1990s posting photos and comments about led to today’s smartphones. your treasure hunt on the Geocaching Although it is several years away from making Glass availa- website. ble to the public, the project indicates Google’s enthusiasm for A US game developer, Will Wright, an idea that has been quietly growing in the technology com- who pioneered simulation video games— munity for several years: augmented reality. Broadly speaking, one of his earliest and most popular augmented reality describes the myriad ways in which digital games, SimCity, allows players to cre- data—in the form of video, sound, graphics or text—can be ate virtual towns by making decisions layered over real-world settings using screen-based devices to about building roads, raising taxes, and make daily life more efficient and exciting. the like—is now hoping to bring out If you own a smartphone you have already taken a small a new game, HiveMind, which draws step into the world of augmented reality. If you get lost, the on the principles of augmented real- phone’s map and internal Global Positioning System (GPS) can ity. Although the project is currently on offer a real-time route home, tracking your movements along hold, Wright has said he plans to use the way. Smartphones can also provide information about our data mining—the analysis of large quan- surroundings by retrieving data based on images taken with tities of data to identify patterns—and the camera; iPhone users can download the Wikitude app, for example, which allows them to point their phone at a physical object to retrieve digital information about it. Direct it towards a restaurant and Wikitude will summon recent reviews; aim it at a mountain range and it will display the name and elevation of the peak you are admiring. Similarly, online shoppers can use software such as Virtual InteractiveP odium and Fits.Me to create virtual fitting rooms in their homes. Users can “try on” simulations of clothing from online retailers through motion- sensitive video game consoles like Microsoft’s Xbox Kinect. As for wearable computers, it isn’t far-fetched to assume that we will eventually accept the idea into our everyday lives. Although most of us don’t yet wear our smartphones, we are usually within a few feet of them and have come to rely on their extrasensory capacities to make life easier. Our phones ensure that our digital and physical worlds are inextricably tied: digital information helps us live in the physical world and we incorpo- rate our physical experiences into our digital lives by uploading images and text to Facebook, Twitter, and other social network- © craig hunter/ hunter research & technology llc technology & research hunter hunter/ craig © Christine Rosen is a Bernard L Schwartz Fellow at the New America Foundation prospect december 2012 reality is not enough 59

GPS software to personalise and track individual players. The e have always used technology to augment real- game will incorporate aspects of the player’s real life into the vir- ity. The first pair of eyeglasses augmented real- tual world of HiveMind. ity for their wearer, to great effect. In the 18th “It is about how we make reality more interesting to you,” century, devotees of pastoral landscapes carried Wright recently told the technology website VentureBeat. “We Waround the Claude Glass, named after the painterC laude Lor- learn about you and your routines and incorporate that into a rain. The tinted piece of glass, according to historian Leo Marx, form of game play... The user becomes the game.” transformed the landscape viewed through it “into a provisional Evident in all this software is a major shift in our understand- work of art, framed and suffused by a golden tone like that of ing of the virtual and the real. Speaking at a humanities festival in the master’s paintings.” Today’s smartphone users, through Chicago, Illinois, last year, science fiction author William Gibson, applications such as Instagram, apply sepia tones to their pho- who coined the term “cyberspace,” said, “Look at the Victorians. tographs to achieve a faux-vintage appearance—an urge to man- For some reason they had a need to deny that sex existed. When ufacture nostalgic beauty not unlike the one that motivated we’re the Victorians, I think that people will say, ‘For some reason wielders of the Claude Glass centuries earlier. they had a need to distinguish between what they thought of as Thus far our tweaking of reality is viewed as harmless the real and the virtual.’” Proponents of augmented reality envi- improvement; our augmentations merely a diversion from the sion a future where the virtual and the real are so enmeshed and grittier or inconvenient aspects of existence. Everyday human the technology we use to negotiate these realms so unnoticeable experience is often inefficient, frustrating, and dull. Why not that we no longer talk about being “online” or “offline.” AsS ergey use technology to enhance it, make it more seamless and con- Brin recently told the Wall Street Journal in an interview about venient—even fun? In the near future, for example, if you are Google Glass, “The notion of seamlessly having access to your dig- wearing a Google Glass-style device and you pass your favour- ital world without disrupting the real ite coffee shop, a coupon might appear on your display screen, world is very important.” For many along with a recent tweet from a friend about the pumpkin soy technologists it is this very dualism— latte she enjoyed there earlier in the day. When a computer the digital versus the real—that aug- can “see” what you see it can intervene to offer you things you mented reality seeks to abolish. might not have realised you needed or wanted; the designers of computer algorithms can learn more about your tastes and habits and so, over time, refine their offerings in a kind of manufactured ser- endipity feedback loop. Yet a world of aug- mented reality raises both practical and philosophi- cal challenges. There is the mundane but real chal- lenge of information over- load. Augmenting reality means adding even more information to a daily expe- rience already pinging, buzz- ing and humming with data. Even without augmented reality glasses, pedestrians and drivers in New York City have become so distracted by their technological devices that city officials, borrowing an idea from London, have painted the word “LOOK” on the pedestrian crossings of one hundred of the city’s most dangerous intersec- tions. Adding to the data stream might increase stress and distraction for a great many people; British come- dian Tom Scott recently par- Left, Theodolite shows users geographical data about their location, top, an augmented reality odied our likely future in toy by Visionaries 777, currently a prototype, and, above, the Acrossair app highlights the a short video that ostensi-

nearest tube stations bly shows a Google Glass 777 visionaries lasorne/ frantz centre: acrossair, right: © 60 reality is not enough prospect december 2012

wearer becoming so confused by the bombardment of ads on his The science & technology section returns next month tiny screen that he walks straight into a pole. This technology raises new possibilities for real-time markets the wearable computer will act literally as a “sixth sense,” using as advertisers vie for our attention on a moment-by-moment basis. sensors and computational power to divine, in real time, our Google makes its revenue from advertisements, after all, and needs and desires. Creating an algorithm that predicts a perfect Google Glass would be an extraordinarily efficient way of deliver- shopping experience is one thing, but crafting one that encour- ing them straight to the consumer. Our daily behaviour already ages human empathy is quite another. generates a vast amount of data: our spending habits, medical A world that embraces augmented reality is one in which we conditions, the toll roads we drive on, our use of public trans- place a great deal of trust in the designers of our technology and port, the movies, books, and music we have downloaded. Because in the ethos of the engineers that fuel them. Those engineers are augmented reality technology is designed by others—usually excellent at solving practical challenges and making life more private businesses—to gather information about us through our efficient and convenient, but they are not necessarily the best eth- use of it, the need for greater transparency about the kinds of ical guides; they create extraordinary means for us to do many data collected and how that data is used will only increase. things, but they are not in the business of crafting meaningful Augmented reality devices could feasibly record every single ends. In the pursuit of the perfect algorithm, we risk forgetting thing you do and see, raising obvious privacy concerns—and mak- that there are other, ineffable things not likely to benefit from the ing the current reach of CCTV cameras appear quaint by com- augmenting eye of the engineer—a stranger’s questioning glance, parison. Who would be comfortable using a public restroom full a quiet moment in the middle of the teeming city, a snippet of of people wearing Google Glass visors? How would our assump- overheard conversation on the bus. These things are impossible tions about behaviour in public places and our trust of others to quantify because their value is entirely unique change in a world where everything for each of us. Incapable of standardisation or you say or do can be recorded and replication, they are nevertheless the human uploaded to the internet by moments that comprise our daily experi- your fellow citizens? If our ence, and not all of them need augmenta- use of smartphones in pub- tion to be appreciated. lic is any guide—the con- We are still some years away from the stant distractions, the thoroughly augmented world envisioned private conversations by technology entrepreneurs and theorists. we now hear all around The hyperbole of its creators notwithstand- us, the filming and ing, you are unlikely to see someone wearing photographing of prac- Google Glass on a street cor- tically anything—we will ner any time soon. This have numerous prob- is why it is an opportune lems to solve in years time to think about to come. how we might want to Paradoxically, live with such tech- augmented reality nology once it gains technology also mass acceptance. has the poten- The screens we look tial to block at now might well things that become the glass people don’t we look through want to see—an constantly in the ugly building, for future. Whether example, or a homeless or not what we see person on the street. That on the other side could undermine social is distorted, dark- cohesion. If we each live ened, clear, or in our own augmented cracked, depends reality, connected to in part on deci-

eatures F eatures our existing network of sions we make friends and family, how today. As we move will our attitude about towards an era of R ex A gency/ engaging with strangers augmented reality,

arrell in public spaces change? we ought to start F Some theorists have sug- asking ourselves

© Billy Billy © gested that in the future, what technology is for, what we want it to Diane von Furstenberg do for us, and how we and Sergey Brin model the want to live with it in Google Glass the future. The best Christmas Ham you’ve ever tasted... or your money back Plus... FREE Next-Day Delivery & FREE Honey & Mustard Ham Glaze It just wouldn’t be Christmas without By Appointment to Her Majesty The Queen a Dukeshill Ham. Ham Manufacturer “ Sarah Hollingsworth Dukeshill Ham Company Ltd ”

Serving Suggestion Have you ever eaten real old-fashioned Wiltshire Ham? Not the slimy, tasteless, so-called ham you so often find on supermarket shelves, but the genuine article, succulent and packed with authentic flavours. We cure our hams by hand using only traditional methods which put taste and texture before yield and economy. That’s why our hams, produced only from outdoor-bred British pigs, are selected by the fi nest Food Halls in London. Available on the bone or with most of the bone removed for easier carving. For many years our most popular ham, the Wiltshire is cured by WILTSHIRE HAM immersion in brine for several days, which gives it a wonderfully moist (but never wet!) texture. The addition of Unsmoked - On-the Bone unrefi ned brown sugar to the traditional recipe adds a subtle sweetness to this mild and delicious ham. Large (min 5.7kg) £73 Order within 14 days to receive FREE next-day delivery Small (min 4.8kg) £65 and your FREE jar of Honey & Mustard Ham Glaze! Half (min 2.6kg) £43 To be sure of receiving your cooked and ready-to-eat ham in time for Christmas, please call today and choose your delivery date or send the coupon below. Please mention ref. PS1. Don’t forget our money-back guarantee; if you don’t agree that our Wiltshire Ham is the best you’ve ever eaten, we will gladly give you your money back.

By Appointment to DUKESHILL 0845 3700 129 Her Majesty The Queen Ham Manufacturer The Traditional Ham Company www.dukeshillham.co.uk Dukeshill Ham Company Ltd  Please send me the best Wiltshire Ham I’ve ever tasted. Size (please tick box) Large £73 † Small £65 † Half £43 †. YES Please smoke my Ham (tick box) † +£4. Please remove the bone from my Ham (tick box) † +£3. Deliver by / / Last delivery date for Christmas 21st Dec. I enclose a cheque made out to Dukeshill Ham Company Ltd for £ Title Name or please charge my credit/debit card. Card type Address Card Number Valid Expiry Issue Security from date no. code Postcode Telephone If you do not wish us to pass your details on to other companies please tick this box † We deliver to UK addresses only. Post orders to: FREEPOST DUKESHILL, Lodge Park, Hortonwood 30, Telford TF1 7ET. We deliver next-day to most of the UK. We do not deliver Sat - Mon. Our last delivery date for Christmas is 21st Dec. *£15 surcharge applies to non-UK Mainland addresses. Dukeshill Ham Company Ltd. Lodge Park, Hortonwood 30, Telford TF1 7ET. Reg. in England 2016732 PS1 62 prospect december 2012 Life Two cheers for clichés 62 The social maze of watch-wearing 64 Whisky: what’s in a name? 66 Investment: troubles with food 68

In praise of the cliché to cliché coinage (it was referred to as “the K-word” by the chair of a literature prize I once helped judge). But as I delved further into the book and At the end of the day, sometimes you’ve just got to think my blush faded, I discovered a new respect inside the box, says Hephzibah Anderson for certain clichés. I began to appreciate their sturdy truthfulness and comforting ancientness. You’d guess correctly that the In the past week, I have taken a rain up with the scientifically wobbly con- poisoned chalice is Shakespearean (Mac- check, stared down the elephant in the cept of corporate DNA. The inclusion of beth, Act I, Scene vii), but I had no idea room, and been my own worst enemy in Kafkaesque proves that artsier types are that “better late than never,” a phrase I more ways than one. not immune use almost daily, was first inscribed by an I am not proud. As Nigel Fountain, ancient Greek, the historian and rhet- author of a new book Clichés: Avoid Them orician Dionysius of Halicarnas- Like the Plague (Michael O’Mara), would sus. No surprise that one of the tell me, I am guilty of repetition, banality first mentions of “thinking and confirmation of the expected. outside the box” occurred In my defence, it’s been a week of in an aviation trade maga- extremes. Or do I mean two halves? It zine in the 1970s, but “cut began in New York City just in time to the chase” originated for Hurricane Sandy and ended with as just that: a direction a very, very long train ride down to in the screenplay for the Florida to meet Bubbles, Michael 1930 film Show Girl in Jackson’s chimpanzee companion of Hollywood. the 1980s. Midway through, I found Some clichés have myself on a late night call with a writer faded into obscurity. friend. He was taking things a day at a Back in the 1940s, for time, I was going back to the drawing instance, “castles in board. Then we heard ourselves. Did it Spain” was a charm- make us only more clichéd that we were ing stand-in for “fond fretting so much about using them? imagining.” Perhaps the Are there some clichés that are simply eurozone crisis will lend unavoidable? it fresh currency. The word itself originates in mid- Unintentionally, Foun- 19th century France, where printers tain’s book shows how the would assemble time-saving blocks evolution of clichés has sped from the most commonly used word up. “Whatever” has an entry combinations. Fountain hews to that even though it’s already broad definition, and his A-Z of shame over, really. Likewise, worry- embraces buzz-words and bromides as ing about “work-life balance” well as adages, truisms and idioms. From seems like something from a “affluent society” to “zero-sum game” far more affluent era. By con- they are all, he argues, either redun- trast, Twitter, digital memes dant, vacuous or overused to the point of and the 24-hour news cycle can meaninglessness. coin a cliché overnight, it seems. Many seem to be derived from the In that context, LOL (which in sporting world, which has moved the goal the 1960s stood for “little old posts, given us the level playing field, and lady”), OMG and ROFL fairly “run with” plenty. Politicians have creak with age. engaged in dirty tricks and spent Blue-sky thinking: Not all clichés, you might more time with their families, banality or say, are created equal. “At the i mages.com/corb s

© while MBA holders have come ancient wisdom? end of the day,” which Gift Membership for Christmas An enriching experience that will last all year

Members see all Order today Just £55 (£44 by Direct Debit) exhibitions free britishmuseum.org/membership

4864_BMF_ChristmasMembership_Ad_Prospect_Mag Proof2.indd 1 01/11/2012 16:15 64 LIFE prospect december 2012 has justly been voted the most hated cli- ché, is little more than a verbal tic. “All things being equal” is another. Strip them from a sentence and its sense remains unchanged. Attempt the same with an apposite cliché and you might find you’re missing more than succinct wis- dom. You’ve lost a bit of history because, far from being vacuous, the most endur- ing clichés tether you to generations of human experience. “Squaring the circle,” for instance, is a challenge first alluded to in English in a sermon by John Donne, but it dates back still further, to an ancient Greek geometer named Hippocrates of Chios. Language is constantly renewing itself—combinations of words don’t stick around without good reason. And despite the fixity of those printers’ text blocks, cli- chés themselves can be infinitely more pli- ant than their literal-minded critics. Their adaptability ensures their survival—true, not everyone knows exactly what a draw- ing board looks like these days, yet we all recognise what it feels like to find our- selves back at one. Camaraderie resonates in the well- chosen cliché, with its implicit acknowl- edgement that there is, after all, nothing new under the sun. That doesn’t excuse us from the never-ending task of finding new ways of capturing our experience in language, but at the end of the day, some- times only a cliché will do. Hephzibah Anderson is an associate editor of Prospect

watch is a permissible form of jewellery. Montres Rolex SA in Bienne in 1920. A There are three ways to go. Each is German watchmaker who had become a expressive of a spiritual state. To Argos London entrepreneur, Wilsdorf cleverly for a £9.99 Casio F-91W, the very basic anticipated the emerging global luxury quartz digital which has been on sale market. The name “Rolex” was chosen since 1991. This was, in a gesture which because it was pronouncable in all territo- Watches seemed calculated to denounce the crass ries… except, perhaps, Japan and China. materialism of his fellow gold-plated Like Omega, Breitling, TAG Heuer Stephen Bayley Saudis, a model favoured by Osama bin and latterly Panerai, Rolex makes a very They tell more than the time Laden and has, accordingly, acquired a specific appeal to the professions, often grisly cult status. of a rather butch kind. You may have no What you really, really need is a dual By way of contrast, you could visit a intention of travelling underwater, but function pusher and tourbillon cage Parisian boutique called Chronopassion a Rolex Submariner nicely suggests a rotating at high angular velocity. Prob- at 271 rue Saint-Honoré in the swish first state of masculine preparedeness for any ably with a black ceramic and carbon arrondissement. Here, in what is possi- adventure. Omega goes into space, Brei- nano-fibre baseplate. The answer to the bly the world’s most extreme watch shop, tling sells aeronautic-porn, Ulysse Nardin old question “what time is it?” may be they will be pleased to sell you a Hublot makes you an ocean-racer, TAG Heuer is merely hours and minutes, but the ques- Minute Repeater—and you must note its Steve McQueen and if you choose a Pan- tion “What’s that watch?” demands a very high titanium content—for €292,400. erai, you may wish to project a winning more complex response. Involved in the Chronopassion’s proprietor says, “Each suggestion that your career path included answer are all the subtleties of our rela- object in the boutique window must cap- service in Mussolini’s marina militare. tionship with technology and culture. tivate, entertain, drive people crazy, even In any civilisation that rises above sub- Apart from sunglasses, there is no if it appears to be totally useless.” John sistence, you find what Thorstein Veblen mood-altering equipment more effective Ruskin, where are you today? called “conspicuous consumption.” Or, than a wristwatch. Apart from a supercar, But there is a middle path, the one as Bernard Berenson put it, “taste begins there is no clearer indication of wealth, favoured by so many of us. This is to when hunger is satisfied.” These classic psychological disorder and social ambi- choose a classic steel wristwatch of wristwatches satisfied a need for imagery, i mages tion, the latter mainly misplaced. For men upper-moderate cost, the category Hans a sort of status Esperanto reaching across

who disdain necklaces and piercings, the Wilsdorf created when he established language and culture barriers, for a new corb i s © prospect december 2012 LIFE 65

Left, a watchmaker—the man’s jeweller—at work in by hand-assembled mechanics in the 21st Ontario, Canada. Below, Steve McQueen wearing his century!” TAG Heuer. Bottom, the Hublot Minute Repeater Several new watchmakers have given watch, available for €292,400. themselves the same brief: “Aston- ish me!” In 1995, Urwerk was founded by Felix and Thomas Baumgartner, in partnership with designer Martin Frei. By common consent, Urwerk has taken the language of watch design to its most remote extremes. Claiming both a sense of tradition (the “Ur” refers to the Sumer- ian capital where timekeeping began) and a commitment to expressive essentials, Urwerk re-conceptualises the display of time. There are no hands or dials; instead, cylinders—reminiscent of the speedom- eter on a 1957 De Soto—scroll a linear countdown. Attached to your alligator strap is a case of tantalum, a heavy metal which is resistant to all but the most fero- cious acids. Another example, Richard Mille, was founded in 2001. The corporate mission is to have a “strong artistic and archi- tectural dimension.” The house motif is thus revelatory architectural windows or picture frames, offering visual access to the excessive mechanics behind the face. First, the question of size. Then there is Greubel Forsey, founded in While almost all other tech- 2004 and declared to be not simple watch- nology in the world is getting makers, but inventeurs horlogers. Their smaller, watches are getting big- unique selling point is EWT, or Experi- ger. Absurdly so. At the recent mental Watch Technology. So far from Baselworld fair, where watch keeping things simple, Greubel Forsey’s addicts feed their habit, a Swiss technology makes a virtue of demented insider said he saw no limit to complexity. the enlargement process. Once, And the pinnacle of all these brands is a slim wristwatch was a token Hautlence, created in Neuchatel in 2004. of sophistication, whereas right The limited edition HL2 (€224,000) now it seems that only the lift- incorporates a tiny chain which rotates ing potential of the human fore- the mobile bridge through 60 degrees arm restricts growth. every hour to compensate for gravity, a class of consumers and world travellers Second, the matter of complexity. The refinement not enjoyed byB in Laden’s all- in the mid-19th and early 20th centuries. pioneering industrial designer Peter Beh- plastic digital. It’s an abused term, but a Rolex is truly a rens said, “we have no alternative, but to Significantly, the advanced art watch “design classic.” make life more simple and less compli- tends to use conventional technology, However, in response to customers dis- cated.” A new movement—for once that is even if it is contorted into baroque elab- satisfied with the functional perfection exactly the correct term—of watch design- orations. To the hyper-consumer, there is and aesthetic neutrality of a steel self- ers disagrees. Christoph Behling, a Lon- something lowering, perhaps, about the winding Oyster Perpetual, watch design don-based, German-educated designer electronic, even if the first quartz watch, has experienced a very quick revolution. who has created modern classics for TAG created by Canada’s Bell Labs in 1927, This has not been inspired by new tech- Heuer, explains the psychology of extreme is in fact as antique as Rolex. And in the nology, but rather by a new hyper-con- complication. fields of social modelling and cultural sumer; the sort who might spend £80m “I love and wear classic watches and competition, where the art watch plays on a Knightsbridge apartment for their chronometers [a watch that meets cer- its role, the spin properties of the cesium fourth home. tain standards of precision], but I have atom which give atomic clocks an accu- Now that the great majority has access also designed a 10,000th of a second racy true to a few billionths of a second a to a reliable and inexpensive digital time mechanical stopwatch. Absurd? Yes! Not year can be left on the bench. source, a small minority seeks the excep- least because your finger can only time Instead, what’s really, really needed tional. Thus, the “art watch,” if that’s up to one fiftieth of a second maximum. is self-lubricating beryllium, a sapphire what we can call it, is a refutation of func- Besides, you can get much more accurate crystal lens and a case made of exotic tion and a wilful embracing of complexity. electronic chronographs. But trust me, if rare earths all wrapped in a look-at-me- To the semantics of excess are added an you have this in your hand, you will have because-I-am-rich design. There is, none- enslavement to ostentatious redundancy. an exceptional experience. Press start theless, something touching about this The art watch may not be for the aestheti- and the blue hand disappears in a blur profession of faith in fine materials and cally fastidious, but it has taken creativity with a high-pitched sound that is abso- mechanical movements. To moan about into a new time zone. lutely mesmerising. And this is achieved redundancy, waste and ostentation in 66 LIFE prospect december 2012 the art watch is as pointless as complain- must, by law, refer to the youngest whisky effect of ageing in different types of sherry ing that a Ferrari 458 Italia Spyder is in the bottle, be it a blend or a single malt cask. unsuitable for the majority of school-runs. (as even single malts contain a mixture of But the 1824 Series, which replaces According to Christoph Behling, ages, unless they are single cask malts)— the younger Macallan age statements, “watches are our immortal, perfect, alter has traditionally played a huge role in con- has proven controversial. This is partly ego products. They can dive deeper, fly sumers’ perception of quality. According because colour is not always a reliable higher, drive faster and tick longer than to research by Chivas Bros, the whisky- cue in Scotch whisky, as many producers, their owners. As with all great design, they making arm of Pernod Ricard UK, 89 per entirely legally, add a little flavourless car- lift our spirits beyond function and need.” cent of us actively look for an age state- amel to their whiskies to ensure a consist- Yes. Maybe. That thing on your wrist is ment when buying whisky, and 93 per cent ent appearance. While Macallan does not not telling the time. It is saying, in a most of us believe that older equals better. use caramel, does their emphasis on the haunting way, volat irreparabile tempus. With global sales of Scotch now at significance of colour set the consumer up Stephen Bayley is a design critic and a record high, however, aged whisky for a fall? the author of “Ugly: The Aesthetics of stocks have become increasingly scarce. Not a bit of it, says Ken Grier, director Everything” (Goodman Fiell) Stretched whisky-makers have been of malts at the Edrington Group, owner of forced to draw on younger stocks to main- Macallan. He argues that the 1824 Series tain supply. The problem is that most simply “throw[s] off the shackles of arbi- consumers would be prejudiced against trary age,” allowing for a “more flexible buying a single malt with an age state- vatting of casks chosen for their colour ment under ten years old. So what’s the and the character delivered, whenever solution? For a growing number of distill- they are ‘ready’ or ‘ripe’.” ers, the answer has been to drop that age Grier’s use of the ripening metaphor Whisky statement altogether. brings us back rather neatly to the profes- Alice Lascelles The result is the no-age-statement, or sor’s research into the significance of col- NAS, whisky. But while they’re good for our: “Colour certainly has a much bigger What’s in a name? the producer, what about the uninitiated influence than people think,” saysS pence. consumer? How is a whisky buyer sup- “People often taste what they see. Red Professor Charles Spence spends a lot of posed to navigate their way around the in particular is a very powerful cue for time thinking about the noise made by off-licence shelf without the signposts sweeter, because we think of fruits ripen- crisp packets. This is because the Oxford offered by age statements? It’s a market- ing and our brains have learned that. We University academic is a specialist in ing conundrum that has forced whisky have internalised it and brands piggyback crossmodal research, a field of experimen- brands to seek out a whole new set of qual- on that.’ tal psychology concerned with the way our ity cues to seduce us. You probably won’t be surprised to senses interact to shape our perception of In the case of the new 1824 Series from hear that the tactile qualities of the pack- the world. According to Spence’s research, Speyside distiller Macallan, that cue is aging also play a part in our perception of the sound of a rustling crisp packet can colour. Named Gold, Amber, Sienna and quality. “Our research has shown that as make the contents seem up to 5 per cent Ruby to reflect their respective hues, the the bottle gets heavier. your expectation crispier. four NAS malts in the 1824 Series have of quality increases,” he says. ‘The weight “All these external factors—the words been designed to showcase the correlates with what on the label, the packaging, the weight, price you expect to the name, the sound of the packaging pay.” being opened—are very One NAS whisky important to our expe- that successfully rience of a product,” took this on board he says. “There is start- was Johnnie Walker ing to be a real change Blue Label, which in the industry, as peo- relaunched last ple realise packaging year featuring is not just about stor- a heavier base, age and about shelf light blue glass life—it’s actually and a more con- integral to the con- spicuous gold sumers’ experience e m b o s s i n g . and it’s increasingly Sealed with an becoming a key old-school cork part of new product closure, it’s a development.” seriously pleas- One industry urable bottle that is having to to handle, and give some serious a fine match thought to these for the classy liquid external factors is within. that of Scotch malt “Of course, the old whisky, particu- whiskies like Johnnie larly in relation to Walker were normally simply age statements. That named after their founders, but number on the bottle—which now naming is a much more You Click We Deliver_Prospect Full Page 04/10/2012 14:58 Page 1

Tanners Reds To give you a flavou own-label reds: the Rhôner of th Valleye superb Red provenanc is Perrins, whose e of our Châ mad is world-renowned.teau de Bea e by the No Minimum Order! ucastel Châ Our Clare teauneuf-du-P t is ape brated C made by the Sichels w hâteau P ho pa Ang almer and rt-own the cele- ludet. own the Free Express Delivery wonderfu And the latest add l Château Red, prod ition to the uc stabl ed for us by the cha e is the Tanners Dou exciting ps fr available for orders operation in P om Duorum - the ro ortugal. most Find Out M of £90 or more* ore > * Terms and conditions apply Find Out More >

You Click, We Deliver...... over 1,000 painstakingly selected wines direct to your door. It’s so easy with Harpers’ Best Top Merchant of the Year 2012.

tanners-wines.co.uk Independent family shippers of estate wines 68 LIFE prospect december 2012 strategic process for everything from can- increases. cer treatments to chocolate bars,” adds To control these risks, farmers became Spence, bringing us to the question of the earliest adopters of financial deriva- provenance. This has become an increas- tives. These were contracts that allowed ingly powerful factor in the naming of them to sell their future production at a food and drink in recent years. Investment fixed price in order to have greater cer- For island malts in particular, elemen- Andy Davis tainty about what their income would be. tal imagery is a recurrent cue: Talisker 57 If you are a farmer, it reduces the risk of [degrees] North, a wild and woolly malt Don’t put your money where bankruptcy. But if you are investing in named after the distillery’s latitude on your mouth is agriculture, perhaps via an exchange- the Isle of Skye; the powerful, peaty Ard- traded product, it greatly increases the beg Corryvreckan, a nod to the treach- For those prepared to put aside consid- risk since you will have to buy futures erous Corryvreckan Strait nearby; and erations of waistline and wallet in order contracts—effectively a commitment to Bowmore Tempest, a maelstrom of smoke to enjoy Christmas dining to the full, we buy or sell at a fixed price on a fixed date and spice from the wave-battered shores should raise a special toast. Not only is in the future—rather than actual bush- of Islay are all NAS malts which have their resolve to indulge a welcome change els of wheat. Understanding how futures replaced the age statement with a power- from the caution and anxiety that has are priced is the preserve of the profes- ful sense of place. gripped the British consumer for so long, sionals, and so investing in food amounts but they’re doing so at the end of a year to an opportunity to buy a financial when global food prices have climbed, product that most people will not fully “Brain scans show often to multi-year highs. understand. Food prices have been increasing for Finally, and perhaps most importantly, that pleasure is much of 2012 and in the coming decades food markets are strongly cyclical. High actually increased this will be spurred on by a rapidly rising prices in all commodity markets tend to world population, many of whom will be encourage the entry of new producers, when products are growing wealthier and therefore eating although in most cases it takes a long time more meat. This in turn increases demand for the supply of wood pulp or iron ore to packaged in a for grain, which is used as animal feed. come into line with demand. Growers can For this reason, some investors are putting react much more quickly to high food certain way” money into agriculture, farming equip- prices by cultivating more land or chang- ment and food production in order to ing the mix of crops, so prices can swing The very sound of the name can also profit from a long-term global trend.P eri- violently from one year to the next. influence the quality of our experience, odic spikes in food prices reinforce their This brings us back to another of the says Spence. High noises tend to be asso- appetite for so-called “soft commodities.” big dangers investors face. In a market ciated with sweet, pleasant flavours, and Some people, myself included, don’t as cyclical as this one, you can be pretty low noises with more unpleasant ones, a buy this. It’s worth thinking about food sure that by the time you’re reading that correlation which he believes derives from and agricultural commodities as an food prices are high, the smart money has the fact that an infant’s tongue goes out investment—but mainly because these already been made. These headlines rep- and up in response to a sugar, and out and markets offer outstanding illustrations of resent a classic opportunity to buy high in down in response to bitter flavours. the various types of risk that investors end the hope of selling higher. Leaving aside “Satisfaction is also increased by up taking. any moral scruples you might have about speech sounds that are congruent with For a start, agricultural markets are profiting from a rise in the price of basic texture,” he adds. An obscure and lengthy loaded with political and regulatory risk foodstuffs, if your success depends upon name helps us to perceive a satisfyingly because food is the ultimate strategic the arrival of a greater fool, the risk is that rich and complex flavour. asset. Such is the sensitivity of almost it might be you. A NAS whisky which could fit the every government to rising food costs Andy Davis is an associate editor of Prospect bill in this instance would be Aberlour (especially since the Arab Spring) that A’bunadh (pronounced a-boo-nah), a they will intervene to secure supplies or cask-strength, small-batch, heavily sher- move prices without a second thought. ried malt from Speyside, which is as This usually happens when prices are delightfully complex and idiosyncratic as already rising and amplifies the swings it is hard to pronounce. in the market: when world grain supplies “But it’s not simply the case that peo- looked tight this summer due to short- ple are being fooled by these external fac- falls in the US, there were fears that Rus- tors into thinking they are having a better sia would try to limit exports to ensure its experience,” insists Spence. “Using brain own needs were met. All markets are sub- scanning techniques we can see they actu- ject to political risk, but few so nakedly as ally are having a better experience, as the food. region which registers pleasure shows Second, agricultural markets are unu- increased activity. sually exposed to huge and unpredicta- “It’s a bit shocking at first, but really ble events: droughts, flooding, pests and all it means is that value isn’t necessarily disease. The increasing vagaries of the where you think it is. Quality is as much weather in recent years offer a power- about what gives you the best experience ful reminder of the financial risks that as the actual liquid that’s in the bottle.” farmers have been taking for centuries, Alice Lascelles is bars and spirits editor of and extreme weather events have played “If it’s OK for you to walk about with a Imbibe. Her website is alicelascelles.com their part in some of the recent food price week’s growth it’s OK for me!” 48$57(5/<0$*$=,1(‡,668(12‡$87801 &DXWLRQLQDFULVLV 52'1(<+2%621 /RQJWHUPDUJXPHQWV

IRURZQLQJPLQHV 7KHKLJK ELENA CLARICI 6&,3,210,1,1*$1'5(6285&(6)81' 'RQ¶WJHWFDXJKWRXW

SULFHRI E\FXUUHQFLHV JOHN HARDY 6$;2%$1. VDIHW\ &RUSRUDWHERQGV JONATHAN RUFFER HGJLQJRXWHTXLWLHV" $1'<'$9,6 35263(&7

3XEOLVKHGE\

LQSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK /RQGRQ6WRFN([FKDQJH

/RQGRQ6WRFN([FKDQJHLV )HDWXULQJDUWLFOHVIURPOHDGLQJ FROODERUDWLQJZLWK3URVSHFWWR ¿QDQFLDOFRPPHQWDWRUVRQWKH EULQJ\RX3ULYDWH,QYHVWRU² ODWHVWGHYHORSPHQWVWUHQGVDQG WKHQHZHPDJD]LQHGHOLYHULQJ FKDOOHQJHV3ULYDWH,QYHVWRULV LQVLJKWLQWR¿QDQFLDOPDUNHWV HVVHQWLDOUHDGLQJIRUWKRVHZKR  QHHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQ¿QDQFLDO PDUNHWVDQGWUDGLQJ

3XEOLVKHGE\ 3ULYDWH,QYHVWRULVDIUHHSXEOLFDWLRQ 7RYLHZWKHODWHVWLVVXHYLVLW ,QSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK ZZZORQGRQVWRFNH[FKDQJHFRPPDJD]LQH /RQGRQ6WRFN([FKDQJH 70 prospect december 2012 Arts & books Does film have a future?70 Political philosophy 73 Kate Moss: blank slate 75 The year in film 76 The year in books 77

The shrinking screen If film is to survive, we must stop lamenting the loss of a golden era, says Stephanie Zacharek

Film After Film: Or, What Became of 21st have time to read all 600 pages of The Big Century Cinema? Screen before cinema actually dies. Thom- by J Hoberman (Verso, £16.99) son has written nearly 20 books on movies and the motion picture business; the most The Big Screen: The Story of the Movies famous among them is probably A Bio- and What They Did to Us graphical History of Film. In his prologue by David Thomson (Allen Lane, £25) to The Big Screen he promises more than just “Méliès to Melancholia”; he’s going The movies are dying. Big films are stomp- for the whole shebang, from “Muybridge ing out small. Marketing, not quality, is to Facebook.” the only route to box office success. As one Thomson’s book isn’t strictly about the observer puts it, “If the advertising for a movies. It’s about the way we have wel- movie doesn’t build up an overwhelming comed screens of all sorts into our lives desire to be part of the event, people just since the 19th century, for better or worse. don’t go.” He observes that while at one time screens That observation is correct. But it was were “as large as buildings,” now “they written not in 2012, as comic book films may be thumbnail size—yet they are vast like The Avengers and The Dark Knight in their ubiquity and their constant use.” Rises invade our screens, but in 1974, by And for a movie lover, Thomson is strik- the critic Pauline Kael in an essay with the ingly wary of the way screens can hypno- brazenly optimistic title, “The Future of tise us into forgetting the world beyond Movies.” Two decades later, in the mid- the screen: “They make a taunting offer of 1990s, Susan Sontag weighed in with a reality, but I wonder if that isn’t a way of more dismal diagnosis of the state of cin- keeping us out of it.” ema. Movies had come to exist, said Son- Thomson is imaginative and energised tag, chiefly as commodities that could be when he’s speaking of film’s past, when shrunk to fit inside our homes, as opposed he’s parsing the distinction between the to larger-than-life dreamscapes projected romantic visions of FW Murnau’s Sunrise on a screen. and Jean Vigo’s L’Atalante, or weighing the Any book about cinema’s past is a book inseparable hubris and genius of Orson ture. Thomson’s piece offered more of the about an artform that has, against the Welles, or revelling in the magisterial cheerful ennui that’s found in his book. odds, been advancing into the future for breadth of Francis Ford Coppola’s first After listing recent “humane pictures” quite a while now. That’s certainly true of two Godfather movies. But when it comes that he felt told absorbing stories about both The Big Screen and Film After Film. to the present and future of film—or, human lives—movies like Debra Granik’s The first, by critic and film historian more specifically, the present and future Winter’s Bone, Paul Thomas Anderson’s David Thomson, is a chronicle of movies of our life with these screens of all sizes— There Will Be Blood and Asghar Farha- and movie culture since the beginning— the tone changes. Thomson affects an air di’s A Separation—he continued, “You see “The Story of the Movies and What They of pessimistic jauntiness, like a know-it- how positive I am being, even if sometimes Did to Us,” as its subtitle boldly declares. all uncle who will never really come out seeing the best new movies, and the old, is The second book is a collection of essays and say, “It’s all over, kids!” even though, a little like eating caviar while watching written by the former Village Voice film if you read between the lines, that’s what TV footage of the latest famine in Darfur, critic J Hoberman during the past dec- he seems to believe. Pandora, or wherever.” ade, a personal overview of the first 10 A recent issue of the New Republic By contrast, Denby—who has recently years of 21st century cinema. Both books featured dual essays by Thomson and published a book called simply, Do the offer hints of what the future might hold David Denby, a film critic for the New Movies Have a Future?—is more openly for movies and the view isn’t always pretty. Yorker, both gloomily assessing the cur- pessimistic. And if his tone also carries The good news is that you’ll probably rent state of cinema and movie-going cul- more than a whiff of the old man on the prospect december 2012 arts & books 71 © FORA FILM/HERMITAGE BRIDGE STUDIO/THE KOBAL COLLECTION KOBAL STUDIO/THE BRIDGE FILM/HERMITAGE FORA © porch in his rocking chair, lamenting the screens about the size of a cigarette pack. Alexander Sokurov’s Russian Ark, “the greatness of bygone days, his argument at Both Denby and Thomson are trou- ultimate trip, a post-2001 space odyssey.” least seems to spring from a genuine sense bled, with good reason, by this devel- of frustration and despair. In his New opment—the shrinking size of screens all-consuming? Republic essay, he writes, “I’m made crazy seems to encourage the shrinking of our There is, of course, another side to the by the way the business structure of mov- collective imagination. In cities every- tragedy of the shrinking screen, which ies is now constricting the art of movies. I where—certainly in New York, where I Thomson and Denby rightly acknowledge. don’t understand why more people are not live—the subways are increasingly dot- New mediums for film have increased the made crazy by the same thing.” ted with young men (there are women, chances that a director’s work will reach Denby notes that in the 1930s, “roughly too, but not quite so many) who rush to its audience. In places where smaller inde- 80m people went to the movies every their seats and immediately fix their pendent or foreign films are unlikely to week, with weekly attendance peaking at attention on a smartphone, onto which play in cinemas, film lovers can now watch 90m in 1930 and again in the mid-1940s.” they’ve downloaded some television show almost anything at home, via DVD or the Now, he says, “about 30m people go, in a or movie. They may look up, briefly, if a internet. Other types of screens are also population two and a half times the size of pretty girl happens to be standing nearby. energising film culture in the 21st century. the population of the 1930s.” That means But I’ve also seen these men miss beau- There’s a world of readers (and bloggers) more and more of us are watching mov- ties of near-supermodel proportions. How online who use social media as a way of ies at home, or on the go, sometimes on could a screen so small have become so connecting through movies. It’s not the 72 arts & books prospect december 2012 same as drifting into a coffee shop with atively small club whose members have pressure—is bracing, as well as quietly friends, circa 1968, to dissect the latest always, thankfully, found their way to one hopeful. He calls Alexander Sokurov’s Godard or Truffaut, but in a world of dis- another. Any hope the movies have for the 2002 Russian Ark, a tour through 33 rooms connection, any connection is better than future lies in the survival of that compact, of the Hermitage museum in St Peters- none. passionate band of outsiders. Our cul- burg unfolding in a single 96-minute The harder reality, however, is that tural memory will survive with them; it tracking shot, “the ultimate trip, a post- none of these beneficial developments will have to. 2001 space odyssey.” He captures the spe- can keep the movies from dying, in the And that’s where a book like J Hober- cific sense of loneliness and dislocation, sense that Denby and Thomson use the man’s Film After Film comes in. Nowhere at once modern and timeless, of Taiwan- word. The only hope is to believe that does Hoberman—who was the senior film ese director Tsai Ming-liang’s 2002 Good- along with the glacial death of movies as critic for the Village Voice from 1988 to bye, Dragon Inn. He finds the real meat in we know them, there will be some sort of 2012—speak overtly about the death of sprawling, fascinating messes like Richard gradual rebirth. And most important of movies, but that doesn’t mean he’s una- Kelly’s Southland Tales and David Lynch’s all, we need to remember that eulogis- ware of the hovering spectre. His opening Inland Empire, both from 2006. ing the movies is an older person’s—or, salvo is a brief, methodical treatise trac- The weekly critic—as Hoberman, rather, an older critic’s—game. It would ing influential French film critic André Denby and Thomson all are—is the guy in be truly horrifying if critics in their 20s Bazin’s theory of “Total Cinema”—that the trenches, fielding the hits and misses and 30s, people who are open to watch- the savants of the filmworld aim to mimic as they come. It can be exhilarating work, ing all kinds of movies—The Avengers, reality as closely as possible—to its unan- and it can be heartbreaking. But if you sure, but also pictures made by the likes ticipated outcome: the development of do it right, what you’ve come up with, at of Hou Hsaio-hsien and Terrence Malick, computer-generated imagery (CGI). the end of a year or a decade or a quar- filmmakers who work outside big-budget “Bazin had imagined cinema as the objec- ter-century of writing regularly, is a diary Hollywood—began to write these end-of- tive ‘recreation of the world,’” Hoberman of the culture, a narrative that tracks the an-era laments. writes. “Yet digital image-making pre- ups and downs of movies against the ever- You could argue that film critics don’t cludes the necessity of having the world, changing backdrop of the wider world. matter much, that almost no “real” peo- or even a really existing subject, before Anyone who truly loves movies must ple read criticism anymore. In the past, the camera—let alone the need for a also desire to see the ways in which they 30 or 40 years ago, even casual moviego- camera.” change along with the world, and the ways ers would probably have had some sense If that’s not a riff on the “end of cin- they themselves change the world. That’s of what critics like Rex Reed, Roger Ebert ema,” I don’t know what is. Yet Hober- a frightening proposition; we’re not always and Pauline Kael were thinking. Even so, man’s tone is anything but pessimistic. going to like what we see. But if cinema is the reading and writing of criticism, that The final third of Film After Film—a col- to survive, we have to keep watching. specific act of caring very deeply, has lection of Hoberman’s pieces, all written Stephanie Zacharek is a film critic for NPR always been the province of a strange, rel- under the typical critic’s weekly deadline and the LA Times

Understanding our world and ourselves

Royal Society Winton Prize for Science Books 2012 Award Ceremony 26 November 2012, 6.30pm The Royal Society, 6 – 9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG Join us at this award ceremony to celebrate the shortlist of the 2012 Royal Society Winton Prize for Science Books. Actor and comedian Ben Miller will host the evening, discussing the shortlisted books with the judges and authors. Free admission – no ticket or advance booking required. Doors open at 6pm. Seats will be allocated on a first-come-first-served basis. For more information visit royalsociety.org/events prospect december 2012 arts & books 73 From Plato to the financial crisis In a time of international uncertainty, we should return to first principles.B ut Alan Ryan’s new history of political thought sticks too closely to the traditional liberal script, says Mark Mazower

On Politics: A New History of Political domestic and international institutional cri- particular, and his impatience with some of Philosophy sis is also one which pushes students back to its recent intellectual and political excesses. By Alan Ryan, (Allen Lane, £50) first principles. In short, the book conveys the exhilaration Which brings us to On Politics, an engag- of being taught by an unusually worldly col- About a century ago, leading Anglo-Ameri- ing and smart survey of major political lege tutor, serious and irreverent, unafraid of can universities transformed their teaching. thinkers from Herodotus to the era of globali- argument but demanding intellectual rigour Their new role, as they saw it, was to act as sation. Its author, Alan Ryan, is an authority from the reader in turn. nurseries of a democratic citizenry, and of its on JS Mill and John Dewey but as this book The tenor and style of the authorial voice elite in particular. What most of these insti- testifies, his range is much wider. He has been is one of the book’s great strengths. But the tutions thought they needed was not more teaching political thought for a long time but familiarity of its cast of characters is another scientific and technical specialisation—this preserves an enviable verve and freshness in matter. In 1937 the American academic horribly Teutonic approach, they felt, ended his writing, as readers of his pieces in the New George Sabine published his pioneering His- up breeding smart cattle fodder for the Kai- York Review of Books in particular will know. tory of Political Theory. At the very moment ser—but rather a return to the ancients, link- On Politics is very much an expression of the when in Europe liberalism and democracy ing them in new ways to the problems of Great Books pedagogic tradition. It is an seemed to be on the way out, he presented modern democratic life. illustration of its manifold strengths and its a story which began with Plato and Aristo- To ensure that successive generations limitations as well. tle, moving through the political thought of of students understood the responsibilities First, there is the style and manner of medieval Christianity before reaching Mach- that awaited the thinking citizen, universi- Ryan’s own thinking. He has described what iavelli, Hobbes, Locke and the challenges ties established new “Great Books” courses. he does as a mixture of conceptual analy- from Marxism and fascism. Appearing more Their aim was to introduce the young to the sis and critique, a conversation with immor- than 70 years later, Ryan’s cast-list has hardly accumulated wisdom of canonical texts of tals who are also historical figures and must changed. Book 1 takes us from the ancient liberal thought. Thus emerged “the West- be treated as such. He comes from a gener- Greeks to Machiavelli; book 2 from Hobbes ern tradition.” This had a narrative arc all its ation—at odds with the to “the world afterM arx.” True, Ryan singles own. Typically it kicked off with a Greek vic- modern pseudo-sci- out American thought at greater length than tory against the Persians and ended up with entification of the Sabine chose to, and goes into more detail the Greeks’ modern English-speaking heirs, academic study of on mid-19th century liberalism. But in every whether in Oxford or New Haven, dishing it politics—which important respect, the canon appears not to to the Huns, and later the Nazis, whilst keep- regarded both have shifted at all. There are Habsburgs but ing other threats such as the Soviets at bay. a philosophi- no Habermas, as much Nixon as Nietzsche— In the 1970s, this approach came under cal training and a and not much of either. French thought is fire. “Western civ” was decried for Euro- background in his- conspicuous by its absence. centrism and purged from many under- tory as essential to The sheer staying power of the idea of an graduate curricula. But as in clothes, any engagement with Anglo-American liberal tradition in politi- so in intellectual fashion: if you wait the thinkers of the past, cal thought across the 20th and early 21st long enough the pendulum usu- and which (and this too can no centuries is itself a historical conundrum of ally swings back. Today, univer- longer be taken for granted) some interest. Does it point to an intellectual sities that gave up their Great regarded ideas themselves as ossification in some of the world’s most dis- Books courses a generation important. A powerful his- tinguished Anglophone universities? Or is it ago are looking for ways of torical sense runs through an optical illusion—a product of Ryan’s own restoring them. This is On Politics, and the figures predilections and interests? A bit of both per- not because they wish it discusses are admirably haps: I certainly do not think we can attribute to turn out a new gen- contextualised. Their rough it solely to the intrinsic superiority of these eration of impe- edges are preserved—Ryan’s particular texts and authors. To my mind, the rial proconsuls. love for Mill and admiration merits of studying Plato, Aquinas or Hobbes Nor, in an era for de Tocqueville licence some are clear. What is less defensible, however, is of globalisa- telling criticisms of their blind the idea that a liberal tradition can survive tion, are they stu- spots and weaknesses. that does not engage seriously with its chal- pid enough to think Far from being of merely anti- lengers and does not at least acknowledge, there is much mile- quarian interest, through Ryan in a changing world, the existence of paral- age in uncritically these thinkers speak directly to lel traditions that have tackled similar and reaffirming Western the present. There is no jargon, a often identical problems in strikingly differ- superiority. Rather, lot of good sense and the reader ent ways.

images political philoso- is treated throughout as an intel- The basic intellectual problem is this: phy is popular again; ligent being. Political asides on once you have defined the central issue of gett y

© a time of sweeping the present enliven the analysis, politics as the preservation of liberty within a reflecting Ryan’s deep familiar- political community, absolutism, fascism and JS Mill is one of Alan Ryan’s ity with both sides of the (north- religious fundamentalism can easily present favourite thinkers ern) Atlantic, his love of the USA in themselves as phenomena of essentially 74 arts & books prospect december 2012

animates the rest of the book, these range loosely across contemporary Anglo-Amer- ican theories of democracy, to the return of religion, terrorism and the supposed decline of secularism. A final grab-bag chapter on world government and the problems of inter- national life feels aimless and out of date. This faltering ending is probably an insep- arable part of the story liberalism tells itself about itself. The period following the first world war, when the notion of a “liberal tra- dition” of political thought was brought into being, was also a time when these ideas were most severely challenged. The best its defenders could hope for, with their Great Books courses, was a reminder of certain civic virtues. They could not deliver the kind of holistic theory of political life that thinkers from Plato to Herbert Spencer had aspired to. Since the 1920s, liberals have had to beat off, or come to terms with, the rise of power- , I nc ./S uper S tock P ictures , v er ful alternative ideologies, while the rise of the

© C ul © USA posed challenges of its own for liberal President Woodrow Wilson promised a world made safe for democracy, but fell far short theorists. Woodrow Wilson promised a world made safe for democracy, but fell far short of negative interest. Yet fascism, for example, in. Islam plays its usual walk-on part as a this. Roosevelt and Truman achieved more, produced, in the writings of Carl Schmitt, a helpful bridge between the ancient Greeks but only by reaffirming a much more hard- theorist of considerable power who provided and the medieval Scholastics, but it is not nosed version of liberalism that triggered a searing critique of parliamentary democ- really allowed any autonomous intellectual a firestorm of anti-Americanism across the racy. His definition of politics saw liberty as activity of its own, at least until the mid-20th third world. And the rise of a different and a distraction and revolved instead around century, when it is regarded as fuelling a kind more potent kind of liberalism in the form of the friend/foe distinction. One may disa- of radical over-reaction to Western imperial- post-1980s financial globalisation poses even gree with this, but one has to take it seriously. ism. One does not have to chase the impos- more difficult questions for proponents of the Yet Ryan’s treatment of fascism and Nazism sible chimera of a history of global political kind of civic solidarity which Ryan advocates. remains trapped within an older historiogra- thought to feel that something very impor- If the book ends with a whimper not a phy that sees the most important thing about tant is being traduced here. After all, it was bang, it would be a shame if this blinded us these movements as their irrationalism. precisely among the theologians, Christian to the many virtues of the earlier part of the Today most historians would regard their and Muslim alike, that key themes in Ryan’s story as Ryan tells it here. Anyone interested challenge to interwar liberalism as much account—the limits of state power, the rela- in political thought will relish the wit, intelli- more serious than this “irrationalism thesis” tionship between the laws of nature and the gence and brio with which he conveys what acknowledges. And as a result it seems down- laws of men—were most deeply explored. makes these thinkers special and useful. In right odd to have a history of political thought It is not that one expects a full account of an era when more people than ever seem to that does not engage more fully with some of Islamic philosophy and political theory; be searching for alternatives to politics—in Schmitt’s ideas. this is after all not an encyclopaedia. But markets, technocratic expertise or perhaps If the mid-century challenge to liberal surely an authoritative history owes its read- in a flight inwards and away from pub- political thought is not given the weight it ers a less dismissive treatment of such mat- lic engagement—this book reminds us why deserves—perhaps reflecting a kind of com- ters? Why mention minor figures likeS ayyid political thinking should remain an essential placency: Ryan’s great predecessor, Sabine, Qutb unless one is going to devote a serious part of our education and our lives. could not afford to be so sure of the out- amount of space to the major ones from al- Mark Mazower is a professor of history at Columbia come—the book’s treatment of religion is Farabi to Muhammad Abduh? University and the author of “Governing the World: equally lacking. Cobbling together a “western The truth is that the task of constructing a the History of an Idea” (Allen Lane) tradition” in political thought always posed western tradition of liberal political thought the problem of how one navigated the Dark always had an ambivalent quality. There was Ages between the Greeks and the humanists, the positive mission of producing democratic and what in particular one did with writers of citizens. But there was the negative task of the church. Ryan oscillates between regard- defending the very idea of democracy from ing the appeal to faith as entirely anti-polit- its enemies. This ambivalence runs through ical—he contrasts the Greeks to the Jews the great 19th century icons—above all de of the Old Testament, “a people who did Tocqueville and Mill—who in some ways their best to have no politics”—and, by con- form the crux of this book. It helps explain trast, acknowledging that the centuries from the familiar paradox of locating the origins of Augustine to Machiavelli cannot plausibly political thought in the mind of the arch anti- be regarded as an intellectual black hole for democrat Plato, and above all it helps explain political thought. But once the humanists the more scattershot quality that creeps into emerge in the 15th and 16th centuries, the On Politics as the 20th century advances. The church is largely forgotten. final chapters are a kind of mélange. Lack- “It’s not funny peculiar or funny ha ha; As for other faiths, they hardly get a look ing the unifying focus on a single thinker that it’s funny New Yorker” prospect december 2012 arts & books 75 Cultural hallucination How has Kate Moss maintained her iconic status for two decades? asks Joy lo Dico

Put Kate Moss in a parka jacket by the was designing. Soon after- put her on its cover in 1994 (photographs swings on a council estate, fag in hand on a wards she was chosen for a second by Juergen Teller, strapline: “The Life of grey English day, and the chances are no- campaign, this time for Calvin Klein’s per- a Modern Icon”), Moss’s then-boyfriend one would give her a second glance. This fume Obsession, and suddenly the teen- Johnny Depp trashed a New York hotel is the paradox of Moss. She has graced a ager from Croydon was the model du jour. room in which the couple were staying. thousand magazine covers, walked miles of As the dishevelled cool of grunge and In 2002, when Burberry plastered Mario catwalk and hangs beside Princess Diana Britpop overturned the super-styled aes- Testino photographs of Moss looking lively and Angelina Jolie in the gallery of the thetic of the 1980s, Moss became a poster and elegant across billboards, she was also modern icon. Catch her off guard, though, girl for the era. But her knack for chan- to be found lying on a bed for a fleshy and as the paparazzi regularly do, and Moss nelling the zeitgeist also got her into trou- saggy-bellied portrait by Lucian Freud. is average-looking, mooching around like ble. A 1993 Vogue shoot with Corinne Day She knows her errancy provokes desire. another lost generation slacker from Brit- caused a storm, showing images of a tiny When her friend Nick Grimshaw recently ain’s suburbs. How did someone so normal Moss wearing pants and a top against the started his job as a Radio 1 DJ, he said that become such a myth? backdrop of a grubby flat. At the time, Moss had advised him to just not turn up Some of the answers can be found in a cheap heroin was flooding intoB ritain and some days. “People love that,” she told him. new book, Kate: The Kate Moss Book, from Moss, with her gaunt “They don’t know what to expect.” US art house publisher Rizzoli. It’s a mem- face and low rent liv- In the end, Moss has two faces. One oir of sorts, a coffee table book with photo- ing, was charged is the guardian of the fashion industry, graphs selected by the model herself. She with promoting exemplified at AlexanderM cQueen’s show is technically the author, but the book is an aura of chic in Paris in 2006. A hologram of Moss in carefully choreographed and edited by a around it. a billowing dress was projected onto the team of creatives, including the influential Moss’s career stage at the end of a show that resur- art director Fabien Baron. could have been rected her image after a scandal a few Moss’s career famously began in an air- destroyed by the months earlier. “Kate Moss is a cultural port. Sarah Doukas, a pushy young agent, “heroin chic” tag, hallucination who we have all agreed to was at New York’s JFK to catch a late plane although she says create,” as sculptor Marc Quinn has said. back to London. The 14-year-old Kate was she has never taken Her other face is the one familiar also hanging around the terminal, smoking it. But her defining from the tabloids and gossip mag- even then, waiting for the same flight on quality was that she was azines, blemished and bleary- her way back from a holiday in the Baha- “natural,” and with that eyed after a night out. Such mas with her father, a travel agent. Doukas came imperfection. shots continue, by acci- saw something in Moss and approached Just after Vogue dent, the spirit of Day her on the plane about modelling. “You’re a more closely than the freak,” was the toothy Moss’s first thought. spirit of Testino, In the late 1980s, Naomi Campbell and because they docu- Linda Evangelista bestrode the catwalks. ment her humanity. Moss was something different—a beauti- Her body is her pro- ful but skinny 14 year old, who, at just over fession, but Moss 5’6”, was tiny for a model. Doukas used has treated it with the oddity, teaming Moss up with Corinne negligence. She Day, a photographer who preferred real- lights up another ism to the glare of the studio lights. She cigarette, downs and Moss went for a day trip to the unfash- another beer, ionable English seaside of Camber Sands. throws herself delib- The pictures, of Kate wrinkling her nose erately out of perfec- while grinning at the camera or running tion. Her smartest along the sands using a sunhat to hide her move has been to naked childlike body, had the immediacy make imperfection of polaroid snaps. The photographs ran her signature. in 1990 in the edgy fashion and culture Joy Lo Dico is a magazine The Face. contributing editor of Something about the photographs Prospect caught the imagination of Harper’s Bazaar creative director Fab- ien Baron—maybe it was Moss’s blitheness— and he picked her for the

images Calvin Klein jeans cam- gett y

© paign he 76 arts & books prospect december 2012

The year in film This year’s best movies explored masculinity, old age, and even geology and philosophy, says Francine Stock

In what was probably the most impres- production, unlike the re-booted Amazing more mature figures were exceeding their sive grandstanding speech of the cinema Spider-Man, in which the 3D was elegantly usual limited share of the action. The Best year, at the close of the gangster film Kill- integrated. Yet for all the artistry, did it add Exotic Marigold Hotel took $134m world- ing Them Softly, Brad Pitt declared that anything to the story? wide from a modest $10m budget, con- America was not a country, it was a busi- There was a mini-rebellion against the firming what The King’s Speech had hinted ness. This portrait of failed capitalism at extra dimension this year. James Watkins, at: cinema is not just for the under-25s. In the dawn of the Obama era may not have British director of the stylish The Woman fact, the generation most likely to pay for been 2012’s most popular film—too on-the- in Black, said he would have walked away a ticket, as opposed to watching a film on nose for some critics; too esoteric for some if producers had insisted on 3D. Gary a small screen from phone to laptop to audiences—but it was distinctive. While Ross did not consider it appropriate for TV, might well be baby-boomers. Cinema openly referring to mobster movies from his massive box office success, The Hun- attendance by over-50s has doubled in the Scorsese to Peter Yates, Andrew Dominik’s past 15 years. So, be prepared for more sil- film was bold and contemporary: it didn’t “Cinema attendance by ver-haired protagonists in 2013, with the murmur its message, it shouted. over-50s has doubled in forthcoming Quartet, Hyde Park on Hud- But film in 2012 also looked back at its son and Song for Marion between them own history. There was the success of The the past 15 years. Be boasting lead performances from Maggie Artist—a black and white French film prepared for more Smith, Tom Courtenay, Vanessa Redgrave with (almost) no dialogue which took five and Terence Stamp, as well as youngster Oscars and seven BAFTA awards. It also silver-haired Bill Murray, 62. These grey-pound fea- made back its $15m budget eight times over. protagonists in 2013” tures often present a lovingly positive view Then at Cannes the most heated debate sur- of age; Michael Haneke—with Amour, his rounded Leos Carax’s gloriously deranged ger Games, a pastiche of earlier films from Palme d’Or-winning portrait of the inevita- Holy Motors, which put one spookily gifted Rollerball to Battle Royale. Neither Christo- ble conclusion of lifelong devotion, starring actor, Denis Lavant, in a series of predica- pher Nolan for his final Batman film, The French New Wave octogenarians Jean- ments and personae inspired by a century Dark Knight Rises, nor Sam Mendes for Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva of film from silent comedy to the latest dig- the latest Bond, Skyfall, wanted to mess —could be counted on to snuff out the can- ital movie-making. with it. At present 3D does not yet serve dlelit glow. A degree of retrospection even domi- filmmakers or audiences properly. We may, Without 3D, cinema this year still proved nated the blockbusters. Avengers Assem- as in the early days of colour, still be waiting immersive. An intense subjectivity suf- ble rounded up the old Marvel superheroes for the proper technology. fused the melodramatic but magnificent to take $1.5bn, making it the third highest Both Batman and Bond, incidentally, Rust and Bone, with Marion Cotillard as grossing film of all time, after Avatar and celebrated the middle-aged male’s pow- a young woman recovering from a freak Titanic. Avengers was fitted with D3 in post- ers of recuperation. And, elsewhere, even accident who develops a relationship with prospect december 2012 arts & books 77

a taciturn young father; it was there too in pressed—although perhaps cinema is now Top films in 2012 includedKilling Them the queasy Martha Marcy May Marlene, unfairly compared to long-form TV drama, Softly (far left), Shame with Carey Mulligan shot from the confused perspective of a girl such as Homeland, where a character can (centre), and Holy Motors (above) newly escaped from a religious cult. twist on the end of a hook for weeks. Masculinity was also the subject of Documentaries about the quest for iden- Béla Tarr’s The Turin Horse, which he almost-too-close scrutiny. With Shame, art- tity proved popular, whether biopics such declared would be his last movie. ist-director Steve McQueen confirmed he’s as Marley or Searching for Sugar Man, New ways of making films emerged, unable to compose an awkward shot, even or films likeThe Imposter, about a French- whether through crowdfunding on the if the theme of “sex addiction” and aliena- man who successfully convinced an Ameri- internet or a community project supported tion was not quite the contemporary taboo can family that he was their missing son. by money from a non-profit foundation, the film’s publicity claimed R( emember the Cinema can still come close to nailing like Benh Zeitlin’s Beasts of the Southern Mike Nichols filmCarnal Knowledge? Or any the ineffable: it was nowhere more ambi- Wild. Most poignant, though was This is riff onDon Juan?). Paul Thomas Anderson’s tious than Chilean director Patricio Guz- Not a Film by Iranian director Jafar Pan- long-awaited The Master mesmerised or man’s Nostalgia for the Light, which ahi. Confined under house arrest in Tehran infuriated audiences by focusing less on the reached simultaneously to the heavens and banned from working, he employed dig- parallels between the cult at its centre and and the earth’s core, binding together geol- ital camera, iPhone and a friend or two to Scientology, and more on a claustrophobic ogy, astronomy, philosophy and politics. It make... what? Documentary, drama, absurd- evocation of charisma, patriarchy and the was occasionally matched in scope by dra- ist comedy and thriller—a film for the times. yearning to belong. Some critics argued that mas like Faust from Russia, Turkey’s Once Francine Stock is a broadcaster and author of the film’s narrative was patchy or too com- Upon a Time in Anatolia and Hungarian “In Glorious Technicolor” (Chatto and Windus) The year in books Erotic fantasies, boastful autobiographies, science fiction bust-ups and troublesome judges—it’s been an eventful year for literature, says Sam Leith

The first thing that any review of the year began as an online pash-note to the Twi- Dickens’s early life and the growth of his in books needs to do is acknowledge its own light series of teen vampire novels); the tri- imagination, Becoming Dickens (Har- irrelevance. 2012 belonged to Fifty Shades umph of the e-book (publishers reasoned vard). Claire Tomalin brought her cus- of Grey (Arrow), an S&M fantasy trilogy that people will read smut in public if oth- tomary narrative brio to a full biography by EL James that was sneered at by critics ers can’t see what they’re reading); and, in in Charles Dickens: A Life (Viking). The for its prose. It has now sold so many cop- more Eeyorish quarters, The End Of Civi- bicentennial of another great Victorian, ies that every British household now has lisation As We Know It. Robert Browning, sadly, didn’t get the one for each bedroom and an e-text for the Still, the year began with the bicen- same marquee treatment. It should have. commute. tennial of James’s ancestor in popular- All in all, non-fiction was strong, as Publishing-wise, the book was held to ity, Charles Dickens. There was a spate witnessed by a cracking longlist for the signify: a breakthrough for female erot- of good books. Most original and exciting Samuel Johnson Prize. One of my favour- ica; the mainstreaming of “fanfiction” (it was Robert Douglas-Fairhurst’s account of ite books of the year—Sue Prideaux’s 78 arts & books prospect december 2012 extraordinarily interesting life of barmy, miah Sullivan. From how Axl Rose dances, as has become traditional, of “snub- brilliant Strindberg: A Life (Yale)—was to what it’s like being in bed with a nona- bing” Ian McEwan’s cleverly metafic- on there. As were Robert Macfarlane’s genarian former editor of the Sewanee tional spy novel Sweet Tooth (Jonathan meditative and writerly account of the life Review, JJS sure has range. Cape), Martin Amis’s knockabout under- pedestrian, The Old Ways (Hamish Ham- The best row of the year centred on the class comedy Lionel Asbo: State of Eng- ilton), and Craig Brown’s enjoyable and shortlist for a prize. For once, it wasn’t Man land (Jonathan Cape) and Zadie Smith’s sneakingly poignant daisy-chain of true- Booker. It was the Arthur C Clarke Awards tale of interconnected London lives, NW life celebrity encounters, One On One (4th for science fiction. Christopher Priest (Hamish Hamilton), by not choosing Estate). (who didn’t make the shortlist) delivered a them for the shortlist. They didn’t “snub” Also in non-fiction, I enjoyedP aul Hen- broadside against what he called a “dread- Hilary Mantel, of course, whose Bring Up drickson’s exhaustive and sometimes man- ful shortlist put together by a set of judges The Bodies (4th Estate), sequel to previ- nered yet weirdly brilliant excavation of who were not fit for purpose.” Of Sherri ous winner Wolf Hall, was ultimately vic- Ernest Hemingway’s life through the story S Tepper’s shortlisted The Waters Ris- torious. Overall, the shortlist was a good of the “she” he loved best: his cabin cruiser ing (Gollancz), he exclaimed: “For fuck’s one, avoiding the charges of “dumbing Pilar. It was called, straightforwardly sake, it is a quest saga and it has a talk- down,” that plagued last year’s selections enough, Hemingway’s Boat (Bodley ing horse.” Another shortlistee, Charles and highlighting books from independ- Head). The first full biography of David Stross, he described as writing “like an ent publishers. As the review-aggregating Foster Wallace—DT Max’s Every Love internet puppy... You wait nervously for website The Omnivore also noted, a third Story Is A Ghost Story (Granta)—was a the unattractive exhaustion which will lead of the shortlisted authors are former her- clear-eyed, penetrating and well-written to a piss-soaked carpet.” Stross, by way of oin addicts, which makes one nostalgic for account that will be essential to fans. Tom response, started selling puppy T-shirts on the days when writers were alcoholics (see Williams’s Raymond Chandler biography, his website. In the event, Jane Rogers’s The above). A Mysterious Something In The Light Testament of Jessie Lamb (Canongate)— JK Rowling published her first novel (Aurum), was smashing, too. Certainly, the only shortlisted book Priest thought for adults, The Casual Vacancy (Little, by the end, its subject was completely half-decent—won. Brown). It had two cheers or so from the smashed. As it now strikes me, that’s three The Man Booker judges were accused, critics—which is a good sign considering alcoholics in a row. Let’s move on. what critics are like. Fear and loathing in There were literary autobiographies, an English market town: Joanna Trol- too: notably Edna O’Brien’s memoir lope territory by way of Irvine Welsh Country Girl (Faber), Paul Auster’s (whose Trainspotting prequel Skagboys Winter Journal (Faber) (Jonathan Cape), was very good too). and Salman Rushdie’s Given the space, here, to account of life under that press some enthusiasms, I Fatwa, Joseph Anton shall. Shalom Auslander’s first (Jonathan Cape). Only novel Hope: A Tragedy (Pica- the first was told, as is dor)—which tells the story of a traditional in this sort of man who finds an elderly Anne thing, in the first person; Frank living in his attic—was Auster used the second one of the funniest things I read and Rushdie the third. all year, and funny with Perhaps this marks a new intent. Nicola Barker’s trend—“Je est un autre,” as chaotic yarn about free- Rimbaud said, and all that. lance beauticians, pubic The more cynical have seen tattooists and boorish it less as a literary stratagem professional golfers, than a stalking-horse The Yips (4th Estate), for self-praise: both the was quite unlike any boys were ticked off by novel on those subjects reviewers for boasting. I’ve read before. And Among the books Chris Ware’s graphic novel of essays or sort-of- Building Stories (Jonathan essays I read with Cape)—presented as a big admiration were box of 14 comics of all shapes Thinking the Twen- and sizes—was so bleak, observ- tieth Century (Wil- ant and meticulously crafted that it liam Heinemann)—a merits that usually empty old word: wide-ranging, erudite and politically masterpiece. penetrating series of, basically, clever Now, if you’ll forgive me, I have a conversations between the late Tony novel inspired by Fifty Shades of Grey Judt and his friend and fellow historian to write. Thanks to Philip Hensher’s Timothy Snyder. You can’t read it without delightful-looking book The Missing feeling your brain refreshed. At the other Ink: The Lost Art of Handwriting, end of the scale—slangy, reported, in the and Why It Still Matters (Macmillan), moment—was Pulphead: Dispatches from which has just arrived, I may do so with pen the Other Side of America (Vintage), a and ink. collection of smart and fizzy magazine Sam Leith is the author of “You Talkin’ To Me? pieces from the American writer John Jere- Rhetoric from Aristotle to Obama” +++++ ‘A marvel. It blew me away’ The Times ++++ Financial Times, Guardian, Independent, Metro, Sunday Express, Sunday Times, Time Out

‘Fiona Shaw... a bravura performance.’ Independent

BEST AVAILABLE SEATS FOR £29.50

Last chance to see Fiona Shaw play free-spirited artist Galactia in Howard Barker’s Scenes from an Execution. Commissioned to paint a canvas celebrating a naval victory, Galactia creates instead a scene of war-torn carnage, alienates the authorities and faces incarceration. To book your tickets visit nationaltheatre.org.uk/execution enter ‘Prospect’ before selecting your seats online or quote when

calling 020 7452 3000. Photo (Fiona Shaw) by Jason Bell Offer valid for performances between 23 November and 9 December.

Final performances ends 9 December Supported by 


t
nationaltheatre.org.uk South Bank, London SE1 9PX Media Partner Waterloo, Southwark, Embankment

Scenes_ProspectMag_200x275.indd 1 08/11/2012 12:00 80 prospect december 2012 Fiction Martina Devlin Winner of the 2012 VS Pritchett Memorial Prize, supported by Prospect

Martina Devlin is the author of several celebrate and preserve the tradition of novels including Ship of Dreams, inspired the short story. The judges noted the by a family connection to the Titanic story’s “confidence and simplicity, saying disaster. Her first published short story most by saying least.” Devlin says it was won a Hennessy Literary Prize. She has shaped by “a tragedy in my mother’s been shortlisted twice for the Irish Book family in rural 1930s Ireland. The death Awards and was the 2011 National of a child is always difficult for relatives to Newspapers of Ireland columnist of the come to terms with—but when another year. This story, “Singing Dumb,” won child in the family witnesses it, and feels the 2012 VS Pritchett Memorial Prize, an award a sense of responsibility for what happened, the founded by the Royal Society of Literature in 1999 to tragedy is compounded.”

Singing Dumb

rs Nash is in a hurry coming through our door. down. Mrs Nash is gone. Even Baby Bridie is gone. My big sister “The guards are on their way!” She drops onto Josie must have taken her out. Me and Josie share a bed—her feet a chair, fanning herself with her hands. “It’s the are always freezing. pair from Doon barracks. They were in Con Sul- “Off you go now, Ned,” says Mama. Ned wants to stay and livan’s shop asking for your house. I slipped out watch. theM back, ahead of them.” The guards are standing by the door, wearing clips on their Mama looks upset. She puts Baby Bridie in the pram, and takes trousers. One has silver Vs on his sleeve. He winks at me but I look off her apron.B rakes squeal outside. I peek through the window: away. I know they have come to put me in jail. I wonder where their two men in navy uniforms, caps down low on their heads, lean handcuffs are.M ama is by the dresser. I go to her, wanting her to their bikes against the hedge. hold my hand, but she’s twisting hers together. I’m hoping she can They have come to take me away. I’ve been expecting them. But make everything right. But when I look at her face, I see she can’t. I run toward the kitchen table and hide under it. “Isn’t she the grand girl, Mrs Tobin,” says the guard with the Mama bends down between the table legs. “Kitty, come out of silver Vs. He has a silver chain, too, above his belt buckle—it goes there at once. Wash your face and hands in the basin of water in round a button and into a lumpy pocket on the front of his jacket. my room. Quick as lightning, now.” He rubs the chain, and I see the top of his big finger is missing. It I do as I’m told, but I stay upstairs. Ned is sent to fetch me. has no nail. Probably, the handcuffs are on the end of that chain. “Mama wants to know what’s keeping you. We’re all to go out- “What age would she be, seven?” side and play, except you. The guards want to talk to you. You’re “Only barely, Sergeant O’Mahony,” says Mama. “She’s just a lit- in trouble.” tle girl. She had her seventh birthday the week before it happened, I long to crawl under Mama and Dada’s big bed, in among the on Peter and Paul’s Day.” spiders. They scare me—but not as much as what’s downstairs. I’m surprised to hear Mama call me a little girl. She’s always But I know there’s no use, the guards will only reach in with their telling me what a big girl I am. long arms and pull me out. Maybe I could sneak out through the “June 29th, the feast of Saints Peter and Paul,” says the other window and climb down the drainpipe. Then I could hide in the guard. I know him—he’s Guard Carmody. “I had a sister born that shed till the guards leave. day. Pauline died back when we were childer. Not a day passes but “Better do what Mama says. Don’t worry. When they lock you I think of her.” up, I’ll help you escape,” Ned promises. I feel dizzy, like the time Ned and me tried to see who could last Only the guards and Mama are in the kitchen when we go the longest looking at the sun. “I’d love to take the weight off my feet,” says the guard with no © Martina Devlin fingernail. prospect december 2012 Fiction 81 © david young david ©

“I’m forgetting my manners, sergeant. Sit down, both of you, the pocket on his jacket—the one the chain goes into, where the and I’ll wet the tea,” says Mama. handcuffs must be. I’m beaten. I sit on the stool next to him. “Nothing for us, Mrs Tobin, we’re only after our dinner in the For a while, they talk about somebody called Jack Coughlan barracks.” from Pallasgreen, whose barn burned down. All at once, they “A cup in your hand, itself.” stop pretending. The sergeant wipes his mouth with a hankie, and “We don’t want to put you to any trouble.” makes a sign to the other guard. Guard Carmody takes out a black “No trouble at all, Sergeant O’Mahony.” notebook and pencil. Probably, it’s the book for keeping lists of “Well, maybe a mouthful to wet our whistles.” bold children. Mama lifts the brown china teapot with a blue stripe off the “We want you to tell us what you saw that day, Kitty,” says shelf. It’s kept for special visitors—we have our tea from the tin Guard Carmody. pot. She takes the sharp knife nobody is allowed to touch, and cuts I look at his boots. They are shinier than Dada’s. into a cake of soda bread. Mama bakes every day except Sunday. “Was the motorcar going very fast?” Guard Carmody watches me while he eats. Once, he told me off I keep looking at his boots. Mostly, Dada has mud on his. for throwing stones at Ryan’s goat. I’m worried he recognises me “Was there any other traffic on the road?” now, and thinks I was always bad. I only wanted to get past that I wish Dada and his boots weren’t at work. goat—I was afraid he’d poke me with his horns if I went too close. “Did the motorcar try to stop when the driver saw Joseph?” Guard Carmody asked for my name that day, and said he’d write it My big brother Patrick goes to the pictures in Tipperary. He down in the bold children’s book. told us when gangsters say nothing, they call it singing dumb. I “Sit over here, Kitty.” The other guard, the sergeant, pats the think about that, while the guard keeps on at me. You sing when stool next to him. If I sit there it makes it easy for him to put hand- you’re happy. But I’m not happy—I should be in jail. It’s the best cuffs on me. I back away towards the door, lying open into the yard. place for a wicked girl like me. Outside, my brothers and sisters are skipping. Except I wouldn’t like being locked up in the dark. I’d be scared Mrs Brown, she lives by the seashore, she has children three and four, of monsters and ghosts. The eldest one is twenty-four so she’s getting married to a tinker, tai- “Was the motorcar wobbling all over the road?” lor, soldier, sailor… I sing dumb. If I run off, nobody can put me in jail. I could live in the old “Tell Guard Carmody what you remember, Kitty,” says Mama. cabin beyond the Fiddler’s Stone, and Ned would steal food for me. A lump comes into my throat and I can’t swallow. The sergeant takes off his cap. It leaves a red ring on his fore- Telling hurts. Like remembering. head. Whistling, he stands up, walks past me, and closes the door. The sergeant coughs. “I have an idea. Why don’t you and The line of buttons down his front flashes in the sunshine. He taps Guard Carmody have another drop of tea, Mrs Tobin, while 82 Fiction prospect december 2012

Kitty and I take the air?” lane, I heard my name. Two girls from school were waving at me I know it’s all over now: he’s going to lock me up and I’ll never from the far side of the road. ‘You wait here, Joseph,’ I said, and see Mama or Dada again. I don’t even know where jail is. It might went across to them. be in Tipperary, or it might be in Timbuctoo. That’s what Dada “While we were talking, Mrs Houston let her geese out, and calls faraway places. “Sure it might as well be Timbuctoo,” he says. Joseph thought they were chasing him. I looked round when I I kick over the stool as I run to Mama and hold her round the heard them, but I couldn’t go to him because a motorcar was com- middle—she smells like Baby Bridie. Mama fixes the ribbon in my ing up from the village. ‘Stay there, Joseph!’ I shouted. But his face plait, before pushing me towards the sergeant. And it’s no good was all screwed up, and he came racing out. Trying to come to me. hoping for a miracle any more. “The motorcar caught him and tossed him high up into the air. He swings me onto the bar of his bike. “Hold tight to the han- As soon as it went past, I ran over and knelt down beside him. His dlebars. We don’t want you falling off.” eyes were open, but he didn’t move or talk. Why doesn’t he lock me on? I sing dumb about that, as well. “There was blood on his head. It was dripping through his hair, Ned, Josie and the others stop skipping and shout something and falling onto his dress. It used to be my dress. as he pedals past, but I can’t hear them. My ears are full of a ring- “Mama rushed down the lane towards us. She had flour on her ing noise. Ned says prisoners eat bread with worms in it—I should hands and her forehead. I said her name but she didn’t listen. She have brought a piece of Mama’s soda cake with me. pushed me away from Joseph and sat down on the road beside Outside Con Sullivan’s shop in the village, the sergeant hops off him. Then she picked him up in her arms and started rocking. and lifts me down. He sets his hand with the missing finger-top on “A doctor came and pulled Mama away from Joseph. She was my shoulder, and moves me towards the door. Inside, the wooden crying and didn’t want to let go, but he made her. Joseph’s head counter is too high to see over. flopped down when she wasn’t holding it. He had a pink crease on While I wait to find out what the sergeant means to do, I look at his cheek where Mama held him against her apron. Sore looking. the poster on the wall. I can read it, I’m good at reading, but I don’t After that, I never saw my brother again.” understand what it means. Con Sullivan brought it back from Chi- “Did the driver say anything?” cago, when he came home to take over his granny’s shop. Chicago’s “He told Mama Joseph dashed out in front of him. He said in America. Patrick says he’s going there on a ship when he saves he couldn’t help hitting him. Mama just looked at the driver and up the money, and he’ll be a millionaire in jig-speed. didn’t say anything back. Joseph did run out. That man didn’t kill On the poster, a lady with painted red lips is smiling and hold- my brother—I did. Mama said so. When she had him in her arms, ing a cigarette. It says: “Women prefer Marlboros. That is why so in the middle of the road, she said: ‘My beautiful baby boy. You many packets of Marlboros ride in limousines, attend bridge par- were meant to be minding him.’” ties, and nestle in handbags.” I don’t know why Americans have I open my eyes. We’re back at the house, where Mama is parties on bridges. It seems a funny place. waiting. “Now, Kitty, pick some sweets.” I forget I’m not supposed to “What’s that on your leg, Kitty?” she asks. look right at these guards who’re going to punish me. My mouth I look down. While I was telling the sergeant my story, I made drops open, and I stare at the sergeant. He lifts me onto the a fist of my hand and squeezed the chocolate till it burst out of wooden counter, his buttons cold against my bare leg. the wrapper and melted down my front. All the chocolate is gone. This time I’m not singing dumb. I’m too surprised to talk. Only the paper is left. It’s dark blue, like Joseph’s dress that used “What does this young lady like?” he asks Con Sullivan. to be mine. “In my experience, Sergeant O’Mahony, ladies usually go for “You need a bath, child-dear,” says Mama. “I’ll put some water chocolate.” on to heat.” “Grand, so.” The sergeant pats my head. “We’ll be back tomorrow for Kitty Con Sullivan pokes about under the counter, where he keeps to sign a statement, Mrs Tobin.” things to sell. He gives a bar of chocolate to the sergeant, who puts She doesn’t say anything—she’s singing dumb, too. it in my hand. I don’t know why he does that. I look at it, before All at once, I know Mama wants the guards to go away as much reaching it back. as I do. We stand at the door and watch them climb on their bikes. “No, you keep it, Kitty. It’s for you.” “The sergeant has no nail on his big finger,” I tell her. The hand with the missing finger-bit pats the pocket on his Mama looks at me, and nods. front. The sergeant pulls out the chain—it has a whistle on the end, not handcuffs!—then a pipe and, last of all, two shillings. M“ ight as well get some tobacco while I’m here.” “St Bruno, isn’t it?” Sitting on the counter, I’m up close to the missing finger-bit. It’s not so bad, except a pink crease runs across the top. Sore looking. Back outside, the sergeant lifts me up on the bike again. As he pedals, I tell him what he wants to hear—not because of the choc- olate, but because I can’t keep it inside any longer. Singing dumb is too hard. I close my eyes while he leans down. Listening. “My brother was scared of the geese—he’d cry when they hissed and flapped their wings. He was only three. I was going out to play, and Joseph wanted to tag along. I said no, but Mama said I had to bring him. ‘Don’t go near the road,’ Mama called after us. In the “No luggage” " !# ! 

oin Professor Ted Marmor (Yale University), Professor Anthony King (Essex) and other expert speakers as they go ‘under Jthe microscope’ to revisit the US election. What were the key issues that framed the US Presidential campaign and what impact did they have on the outcome?

!!   !! !!  followed by a reception.

 registration required.   
   !

Charing Cross, Piccadilly 10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AH

 KEdDWKZZzWh>/^,/E'ʹKEdDWKZZzZ/E'



=HUR%RRNV²&RQWHPSRUDU\FXOWXUHKDVHOLPLQDWHGWKHFRQFHSWDQGSXEOLFILJXUHRIWKHLQWHOOHFWXDO$FUHWLQRXVDQWLLQWHOOHFWXDOLVPSUHVLGHVFKHHUOHGE\KDFNVLQWKH SD\RIPXOWLQDWLRQDOFRUSRUDWLRQVZKRUHDVVXUHWKHLUERUHGUHDGHUVWKDWWKHUHLVQRQHHGWRURXVHWKHPVHOYHVIURPWKHLUVWXSRU=HUR%RRNVNQRZVWKDWDQRWKHUNLQGRI GLVFRXUVH²LQWHOOHFWXDOZLWKRXWEHLQJDFDGHPLFSRSXODUZLWKRXWEHLQJSRSXOLVW²LVQRWRQO\SRVVLEOHLWLVDOUHDG\IORXULVKLQJ=HURLVFRQYLQFHGWKDWLQWKHXQWKLQNLQJ EODQGO\FRQVHQVXDOFXOWXUHLQZKLFKZHOLYHFULWLFDODQGHQJDJHGWKHRUHWLFDOUHIOHFWLRQLVPRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQHYHUEHIRUHZZZ]HURERRNVQHW

,II%RRNV²LVLQWHUHVWHGLQLGHDVDQGUHDVRQLQJ,WSXEOLVKHVPDWHULDORQVFLHQFHSKLORVRSK\DQGODZ,II%RRNVDLPVWRZRUNZLWKDXWKRUVDQGWLWOHVWKDWDXJPHQWRXU XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHKXPDQFRQGLWLRQVRFLHW\DQGFLYLOLVDWLRQDQGWKHZRUOGRUXQLYHUVHLQZKLFKZHOLYHZZZLIIERRNVFRP

1HZDXWKRUVFDQVXEPLWZRUNYLDRXUZHEVLWHVE\XVLQJWKH¶*HW3XEOLVKHG·WDE$OOLPSULQWVDUHSDUWRI-RKQ+XQW3XEOLVKLQJ/WG



BSURVBGHFLQGG  84

The generalist by Didymus Enigmas & puzzles

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Persephone Polymath’s party Ian Stewart Primrose Polymath had arranged a birthday party 12 13 for her daughter, Persephone, and several of her 14 friends. Each received the same quantity of sweets

15 16 and, after everyone had left, Primrose picked up the discarded wrappers. She found 25 gnoshibar wrappers, 39 frootyloopy wrappers and 51 chocolollo 17 18 wrappers. “That’s strange,” she said. “They should all be here. Did the cat pick some up and—” 19 20 “No, mummy,” said Persephone. ‘We all ate all 21 22 our sweets and left the wrappers for recycling just 23 24 25 like you said—except for Maisie Johnson. You must

26 remember, she felt sick and her daddy had to come and take her home early.” 27 28 “Oh, yes,” said Primrose. ‘And she took away the 29 30 few sweets she hadn’t already pigg—I mean, eaten.”

31 32 33 She paused. “Do you remember how many that was?” “It was at most one of each type of bar,” said 34 35 Primrose. “Maybe none of some of them.”

36 37 How many of Persephone’s friends were there at the party? (Persephone herself is not a friend.)

38 39

Last month’s answer ACROSS 34 Classical name for Wales (7) by Ronan O’Rahilly which 1 The overlapping of two heads 35 Minister of Transport who first broadcast on Easter This, or its rotation through on a coin (8) opened the first section of Saturday 1964 (5,8) 60 degrees, which is the same as its left-right reflection. 5 Digital technological the M1 (6,7) 10 From the very start (2,6) entertainment (8,4) 36 Olympic competitors 11 Large-sized drawing- paper, 12 Small metal container (8) performing two fewer 23˝ by 28˝(8) disciplines than Jessica 14 Lancelot Brown, William 13 A kept mistress of a man of Ennis (12) society (4-8) Kent and Humphrey Repton 37 In the process of being (9,9) 15 Faint constellation in the filmed (2,6) northern hemisphere, close 20 1991 film about Colonel How to enter to Ursa Major (5,8) 38 Popular potato-topped meat Jason Halsey, a USAF pilot, dish (9,3) and which featured the 16 French dramatist who wrote SR-71 Blackbird spy plane The generalist prize Antigone and Médée (7) 39 David Copperfield’s aunt who lived in Dover (8) (5,8) One winner receives a copy of a new 17 A ladies’ man (7) 21 Bullfighter who sticks darts verse translation of Dante’s The Divine 18 The making of Beau Nash with streamers into the neck Comedy (Alma Classics, hardback, £20), (13) DOWN of a bull (12) 1 Manager of the Republic of complete with Gustave Doré’s 19th 19 Terminus of the Light 22 Offshore nature reserve in Ireland football team from century illustrations. Railway from Welshpool the eastern Bass Strait (6,6) 1986 to 1996 (4,8) (8,10) 25 The key of Chopin’s nocturne 2 Cocktail that’s not with it! Enigmas & puzzles prize 23 Lieblich gedackt, stopped used in Polanski’s filmThe (3,3,6) diapason and voix céleste Pianist (1-5,5) The winner receives a copy of (5,5) 3 Revel bands of the devotees of 26 Indian spin-bowler, Guesstimation 2.0 by Lawrence Weinstein Dionysus (7) 24 Render a bomb harmless or Chandrasekhar’s partner, (Princeton University Press, £13.95), inoperative (10) 4 His aunt is Rose and his half- who is the only Indian to take which looks at how to estimate anything brother is Monks (6,5) more than 1500 first-class 27 Shepton Dash or Fernville quickly and accurately using plausible wickets (6,4) Lord Digby in a paint advert 6 Superiors’ written instructions assumptions and basic arithmetic. (3,7,8) to subordinates (10) 28 An Aussie nag (9) 31 Flowering plant of the 7 Religious movement founded 29 Acquires property by long genus Paphiopedilum – for by the followers of Hugh possession and enjoyment (8) Cinderella? (7,6) Bourne and William Clowes 30 Decoration of glittering Rules at Mow Cop (9,9) Send your solution to [email protected] or 32 Instrumental composition particles on a dress (8) of a vague and dreamy 8 A stanza or short hymn (9) 33 The general slope of a Crossword/Enigmas, Prospect, 2 Bloomsbury Place, London, character (7) 9 Offshore station founded mountain (7) WC1A 2QA. Include your email and postal address for prize administration. All entries must be received by 2nd December. Winners will be announced in our January issue. Last month’s solutions Solutions across: 1 Tityre-tu 5 Carillonneur 13 Frances Hodgson Burnett 14 Edward Elgar 15 Larghetto 16 Les Halles 17 Centillions 18 Ash 19 Set fair 20 Shelf-life 22 Kewpie doll 25 Melanerpes 30 Gee-string 33 Last month’s winners Ezekiel 35 Imp 36 Interrelate 37 Goes after 38 Trade wind 39 Chemin de fer 40It was a Lover and his Lass The generalist: Edward Telesford, Hove 41 Listlessness 42 Belleek Enigmas & puzzles: Cath Brown, Birmingham Solutions down: 1 Tufnell Park 2 That Was The Week That Was 3 Ricercars 4 Tessellated 6 Apgar score 7 Isoclines 8 Libertine 9 Northcliffe 10 Electronic point of sale 11 Retroussé 12 Coggeshall 21 Hel 23 Intercensal 24 Oon 26 Evergreens 27 Abide With Me 28 Supergrass 29 Zener cards 30 Grist-mill 31 Icefields 32 Guard’s van 34 Llandysul Download a PDF of this page at www.prospectmagazine.co.uk The Prospect list Inspiring young minds! Our pick of the best public talks AQUILA Children’s Magazine is ideal for boys and events in December and girls who want to know the whys and wherefores of everything.

Monday 3rd University of Edinburgh, Teviot, Bristo “How does a lava lamp work?” “Was there really a Navigation, Astronomy and Square, 6pm, free, 0131 651 3683, www. curse on Tutankhamun’s tomb?” The magazine starts Time-Keeping eid.ed.ac.uk its young readers on the right track and feeds their Arnold Wolfendale, academic The Charles Dickens Phenomenon interest with factual articles, puzzles and fun-activities Durham University, Calman Learning Andrew Mangham, academic Centre, South Rd, 6:15pm, free, 0191 University of Reading, Palmer that are designed to ignite children’s enthusiasm and 334 2000, www.dur.ac.uk Building, Whiteknights Campus, Pepper creativity. Lane, 8pm, free, 0118 378 4313, www. Tuesday 4th reading.ac.uk Every monthly issue of AQUILA has a Replacing the Nation: South new topic. There’s no celebrity gossip Great Africa’s Passive Revolution? Thursday 13th or advertorial; instead, children gift for Gillian Hart, academic Why was the Atlantic Slave Trade can deepen their interest and 8-12 year London School of Economics, New so big? Academic Building, Kingsway, WC2, David Richardson, academic understanding of the world around olds 6:30pm, free, 020 7405 7686, www.lse. University of Hull, WISE, Oriel them. Says Editor Jackie Berry, “We never ac.uk Chambers, High Street, 4:30pm, free, talk down to our readers, and they love to 0148 230 5176, www.hull.ac.uk Wednesday 5th Portraits of Writers: Bidisha on Iris be part of a magazine that takes them seriously.” Mind the Gap: Politics, Economics Murdoch Research suggests that one in fi ve primary-aged and Technological Change Bidisha, writer and critic Ian Goldin, former vice president of National Portrait Gallery, Ondaatje children fi nds school work too simple, so it is reassuring the World Bank Wing Theatre, St Martin’s Place, WC2, to know that AQUILA Magazine, which is recommended University of Warwick (further details 7pm, £5, 020 7306 0055, www.npg.org. by educational specialists, will provide challenges for provided on booking), 6pm, free, 0247 uk our brightest children. You will not fi nd AQUILA at the 652 3523, www.warwick.ac.uk Alan Turing and the Enigma Saturday 15th newsagents; it is only available by subscription. Machine Journalism, Churnalism and Media James Grime, lecturer Bias “Thank you for looking University of Hertfordshire, Lindop Stephen Law, academic, Ben Building, College Lane, Hatfield, 7pm, Goldacre, journalist, Rich Peppiatt, after my son’s brain!” free, 0170 728 4004, www.iop.org media commentator, Michael Light from the Middle East: Marshall, media campaigner, and www.aquila.co.uk • 01323 431313 photography Greg Philo, academic Marta Weiss, curator Conway Hall, Red Lion Square, WC1, Victoria & Albert Museum, Lydia and 11am, £10, 020 7405 1818, www. Manfred Gorvy lecture theatre, conwayhall.org.uk Cromwell Rd, SW7, 1pm, free, 020 7942 2000, www.vam.ac.uk Tuesday 18th De-mystifying the Chinese Thursday 6th Economy Is it Rational to be Moral? Justin Lin, former chief economist of Jonathan Way, lecturer the World Bank, and Danny Quah, University of Southampton, John academic Hansard Gallery, Highfield Campus, London School of Economics, Old University Rd, 1pm, free, 0238 059 Building, Kingsway, WC2, 6:45pm, 7261, www.southampton.ac.uk free, 020 7405 7686, www.lse.ac.uk TalkScience@Christmas TalkScience series’ Christmas quiz Wednesday 19th British Library, Euston Rd, NW1, 6pm, Incoming: Learning to Love the £10, 0843 208 1144, www.bl.uk Meteorite Ted Nield, science writer Friday 7th The Geological Society, Burlington House Bad Pharma Piccadilly, W1, 3pm and 6pm, free, 020 Ben Goldacre, journalist 7434 9944, www.geolsoc.org.uk Southbank Centre, Purcell Room, Belvedere Rd, SE1, 7:45pm, £10, 020 7960 4200, www.southbankcentre.co.uk The list is expanding online. For regular updates, visit Monday 10th www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ Under the Microscope: the US listings Presidential Election Revisited Anthony King, Theodore Marmor, To place events in the list Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke, t: 020 7255 1344, f: 020 7255 1279 academics [email protected] British Academy, Carlton House Send January events by 2nd December Terrace, SW1, 6pm, free, 020 7969 5200, www.britac.ac.uk To attend events Always confirm details in advance and Wednesday 12th reserve a place if necessary. Prices Madness, Genius and the Origin of listed are standard; there may be the Brain concessions Seth Grant, academic Menton,  Côte d’Azur Financial assistance PLQVIURP1LFH 3UHWW\WZR for writers EHGURRPKRXVHVOHHSVIRXU:HOO HTXLSSHGNLWFKHQDQGODUJHVLWWLQJ *UDQWVDQG3HQVLRQVDUH URRP6HWLQJURXQGVRI ·VWRZQ YLOOD3RRO&KDUPLQJFRXUW\DUGZLWK DYDLODEOHWRSXEOLVKHG OHPRQWUHHVDQGYLHZVRI WKH%D\RI 0HQWRQDQGROGWRZQPLQXWH DXWKRUVRI VHYHUDOZRUNV ZDONWRFRYHUHGPDUNHWEHDFKHVDQGEXVDQGWUDLQVWDWLRQ2II VWUHHW ZKRDUHLQILQDQFLDO SDUNLQJDYDLODEOH%RRNLQJQRZIRU GLIILFXOWLHVGXHWRSHUVRQDO 7HO(PDLOSDWWLHEDUZLFN#JPDLOFRP ZZZPHQWRQVHMRXUFRP RUSURIHVVLRQDOVHWEDFNV $SSOLFDWLRQVDUH 2·'RQRJKXH FRQVLGHUHGLQFRQILGHQFH %RRNV E\WKH*HQHUDO&RPPLWWHH :DQWHGWREX\ HYHU\PRQWK 3+,/2623+<  62&,$/6&,(1&(%22.6 )RUIXUWKHUGHWDLOVSOHDVHFRQWDFW )DLUSULFHVSDLG (LOHHQ*XQQ :LOOWUDYHOWRYLHZEX\ *HQHUDO6HFUHWDU\ GDWLQJJURZQXSV A 3ULYDWHFRQVXOWDWLRQVDQGGDWLQJ 7KH5R\DO/LWHUDU\)XQG 2·'RQRJKXH%RRNV LQWURGXFWLRQVIRUWKHGLVFHUQLQJ +D\RQ:\H -RKQVRQ·V&RXUW RYHU·VZLWKQRXSSHUDJHOLPLW  /RQGRQ(&$($ /RQGRQ+RPH&RXQWLHV6RXWK RGRQRJKXHERRNV#]HQFRXN 7HO &RDVW (DVW$QJOLD 3OHDVHFDOO'DYLGZKRLVWKH )RULQIRUPDWLRQDERXWDGYHUWLV HJXQQUOI#JOREDOQHWFRXN ¶0DWFKPDNHU([WUDRUGLQDU\· LQJFRQWDFW'DQ-HIIHUVRQ RQRU GDQ#SURVSHFWPDJD]LQHFRXN ZZZGDWLQJJURZQXSVFRXN  Who will cherish your pets, care for your home, baffle the burglars and reduce your insurance premium? ZZZUOIRUJXN 7KH5R\DO/LWHUDU\)XQG ® 5HJLVWHUHG&KDULW\QR

24 hr brochure line 01296 630730 or www.homesitters.co.uk We stay when you’re away :(%8<$1'6(// C. L. Hawley /$1*8$*(%22.6 Academic books bought and sold )25(,*1&(/7,& Literary Criticism, History, (1*/,6+ Politics etc. Browse and buy )URPOLEUDULHVWRVLQJOHLWHPV online or contact us with 0DULMDQD'ZRUVNL%RRNV books for sale. 3UHVWHLJQH3RZ\V /'/$8. www.clhawley.co.uk Tel: 01756 792380 7HO   LQIR#GZRUVNLERRNVFRP ZZZGZRUVNLERRNVFRP

BSURVBGHFLQGG  Latest Titles from Zed Books

Pb ISBN 9781780323251 £16.99 Pb ISBN 9781780320250 £14.99 www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ the-fate-of-sudan anti-porn

Pb ISBN 9781848135574 £14.99 www.zedbooks.co.uk/ paperback/the-end-of-conceit

Pb ISBN 9781848139664 £12.99 Pb ISBN 9781780320069 £18.99 www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ africa-and-the-war-on-drugs reclaiming-public-ownership

Zed Books 7 Cynthia Street, London N1 9JF Tel: 020 7837 4014 [email protected] www.zedbooks.co.uk 88 prospect december 2012 The way we were Terrible Christmases Extracts from memoirs and diaries, chosen by Ian Irvine

Christmas Day, 1940. Harold pair of cooks. A rancid stuffing with Nicolson writes in his diary: turkey, bottled chipolatas and another “The gloomiest Christmas Day brown sauce with bits of turkey liver that I have yet spent. I get up floating in it. The Christmas pud- early and have little work to do ding was good, but the brandy but- [at the Ministry of Informa- ter was made with sham cream. Then, tion]. Finish reading the memo- after tea, the present giving.The Awk- randa on local organisations with ward Age from Peter, a Henry James which I have been supplied. Have he gave me ten years ago, although I talk with Hall about the reorgan- didn’t tell him so. From Ian some sexy isation of our propaganda among black pants with black lace and a hid- minor nationalities in the USA. eous beige galoshes bag... Lunched alone at Antoine’s and “We left at six and broke down on read a book of Pitt’s war speeches. the hill—out of petrol. We both got Hear the King on the wireless. out of the car and walked off in sep- Pick Raymond [Mortimer, liter- arate directions, me taking a short- ary editor of the New Statesman] cut so that I reached the garage first. up at the Ritz Bar where I meet I cried all the way to Eric Wood. Felt Puffin Asquith [film director] and everything was miserable.” Terence Rattigan [playwright]. “After that I have a nice dinner Steven Berkoff writes about Christ- with Raymond at Prunier. I then mas 1982 in his autobiography: go back to the Ministry, where “Christmas reached its nadir this year. there is a party downstairs fol- I had travelled much of the world, play- lowed by a film. ing Hamlet in Paris, directing Kafka in “Poor old London is begin- LA, winning awards for Greek, also in ning to look very drab. Paris is LA, making Octopussy in England. So so young and gay that she could then why not celebrate a great Christ- stand a little battering. But Lon- mas with all my champions and world- don is charwoman among capi- touring colleagues? Instead, I let the tals, and when her teeth begin to glumps get to me and went into the fall out she looks ill indeed.” Barbara Skelton poses for a modelling photo in the 1940s hypnotic state which had conditioned me for years: this is the gloomy sea- Evelyn Waugh recounts a frightful ate a week ago. My mother gave me a copy son and verily ye shall be ultra misera- Christmas Day, 1946: “Drove to midnight of Diary of a Nobody. But for these I have ble. This is the Christmas of your deprived Mass at Nympsfield very slowly on frozen had no presents though I have given many. youth, the time when you watched the world roads with Teresa, Bron and Vera [two of I should like to think that from the 29th enjoy itself, but ye shall not since ye are an his children and the nurserymaid] in the October [the day after his birthday] onward outcast. back of the car. The little church was pain- friends in all parts of the country were “I took myself to my sister’s house in fully crowded. We sat behind a dozen insub- thinking ‘What can we give him for Christ- Bristol, a ghastly hole that looked as if the ordinate little boys who coughed and stole mas?’ and hunting shops and embroidering plague had decimated it; the one place and wrangled. The chairs were packed and continuing to find me unique and delec- to go was the Wimpy Bar, even on Boxing so close that it was impossible to kneel table presents. But it is not so.” Day, when you needed to escape from the straight. family for a few hours. Britain does invent “Drove home very slowly and did not get Christmas, 1953. Barbara Skelton, mar- perfect horrors that seem to suit it so well. to bed until 2.30am. Laura [his wife] has ried to the critic Cyril Connolly, writes I strolled aimlessly round the docks and imprudently sent Saunders and Kitty for in her journal: “Arrive at the [Ian] Flem- returned to the house, where my relation- holidays so that she and Deakin are grossly ings in good time for lunch. A large gather- ship with my sister was becoming more and overworked. I made a fair show of genial- ing of three generations... Since doing the more strained and the evil telly continued to ity throughout the day, though the specta- Atticus column [the diary of The Sunday spew out its numbing waves. cle of a litter of shoddy toys and half-eaten Times], Ian seems to have become a very “I was glad to have someone at least to sweets sickened me. Everything is so badly dried-up and red-veined plain family man. visit, a table to sit at and someone to talk made nowadays that none of the children’s Has lost any semblance of glamour or good to, but during that holiday I was inspired to presents seemed to work. Luncheon was looks, a bottlenecked figure with a large write Christmas out of my being for all time. cold and poorly cooked. A ghastly day. I bum. Very bad manners—by that I mean a I wrote Harry’s Christmas, which details the spent what leisure I had in comparing the heap of something is plonked on one’s plate journey of a lonely man in the days leading Diary of a Nobody with its serialised version so that it trickles over the side. Atmosphere up to Christmas… The play was never shown, in Punch. hearty. We are offered a Bloody Mary. We which is a great shame as I believe it is a very

© getty images getty © “Laura gave me a pot of caviar which I had been told about their wonderful new powerful antidote to Christmas.” Couldn’t get into Hurtwood! Left it too late, poor lamb! What a shame! Hurtwood was the Sixth Form of her dreams, the best in the world for the Performing and Creative arts and brilliant academically, too. How she longed to be part of that cosy, inspiring community... but alas, too late... too late.

So don’t delay – contact me now – or scream for the rest of your life! Cosmo Jackson T: 01483 279000 E: [email protected] www.hurtwoodhouse.com