Exclusive: SAS raid pictures issue 201 | december 2012 www.prospect-magazine.co.uk december 2012 | £4.50 The best is yet the best is yet to come to come bill emmott Shadow over Europe ANTONY BEEVOR Incompetent Cameron DOUGLAS CARSWELL Hollande’s blindness CHRISTINE OCKRENT China’s new chief JON HUNTSMAN Mythic Kate Moss JOY LO DICO vs fiction p prize ISSN 1359-5024 ritchett 12 9 771359 502057 Our fund managers’ most useful tool No. 8: A briefcase Over the past year, we interviewed the management of hundreds of listed companies across the UK. Dunedin Income Growth Investment Trust Stocks and Shares ISA and Share Plan No matter how well-known a company is, there’s no The trust is available through the Share Plan, tax-efficient substitute for getting to know it on your own terms. ISA or ISA transfer. So when we are selecting leading UK companies for No recommendation is made, positive or otherwise, Dunedin Income Growth – we go and scrutinise every regarding the ISA or Share Plan. 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Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1YG, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Telephone calls may be recorded. Please quote DIGIT PM 02 1112 Prospect Mag DIGIT PM 02.indd 1 05/11/2012 15:53 prospect december 2012 3 Foreword Reinventing America 2 bloomsbury place, London wc1a 2qa Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive bronwen maddox Editor at large david Goodhart Deputy editor James elwes this was the election that showed the world—and Americans Politics editor James macintyre Books editor david Wolf themselves—the scale of the changes now reshaping the Creative director david Killen Production editor Jessica Abrahams United states. Huge demographic shifts, even if long Online editor daniel cohen Editorial assistants tom bailey, musab foreseen, took on hard numerical form at the ballot box and Younis, Annalies Winny began to recolour the political map. America’s first black Publishing President & co-founder derek coombs president was re-elected because more of its people than Publisher david Hanger ever are Hispanic, and more of them young. Circulation marketing director Jamie Wren Digital marketing: tim de La salle these changes are good for the United states, and reason Director of sales Iain Adams 020 7255 1934 Advertising sales manager to argue that reports of its decline are premature (see bill dan Jefferson 020 7255 1934 Finance manager pauline Joy emmott, p28). the stark division into red and blue states Editorial advisory board which has paralysed national politics for more than a decade is shattering under david cannadine, clive cowdery, Ac Grayling, peter Hall, John Kay, peter Kellner, the force of shifts in the population (seep eter Kellner, p33). that is one answer Nader mousavizadeh, toby mundy, robin to fears that Washington gridlock is making it impossible for any president to Niblett, Jean seaton Associate editors govern the world’s richest country and its most powerful advocate of democracy. Hephzibah Anderson, tom chatfield, America has one of the youngest populations of any in the industrialised world, James crabtree, Andy davis, edward docx, david edmonds, sam Knight, Ian Irvine, a huge advantage as its economy comes out of recession (see Google’s new sam Leith, emran mian, elizabeth pisani, Wendell steavenson, James Woodall “wearable computers” for one example of innovation, p58). meanwhile, the surge Contributing editors in ethnic populations is forcing it to be more open to the world. philip ball, Anthony dworkin, Josef Joffe, Anatole Kaletsky, michael Lind, Joy Lo Any party which does not recognise that is dead. the single sentence that dico, erik tarloff most hurt mitt romney’s campaign was not about firing workers, or looking Annual subscription rates UK £49; Student £27 through “binders full of women,” although those remarks have earned him extra Europe £55; Student £32.50 Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 lines in the history books—and incredulous volumes on the internet. It was in prospect subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, the primaries, when he mused that children of illegal immigrants might consider Kent science park, sittingbourne, me9 8gu Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 “self-deportation.” Fax 01795 414 555 Email [email protected] true, America is still deeply divided. Not only do many republicans hate Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe cheques payable to prospect publishing president barack obama—really hate him—but many democrats competed Ltd. subscription refunds must be made in during the campaign to pronounce how disappointed they were in him. writing to prospect within four weeks of a new order or renewal, and are subject to an sometimes it seemed like a race to see which candidate was least disliked. administration charge of £15. No refunds are paid on quarterly subscriptions. Neither said much about how to cut the looming budget deficits, or healthcare for the elderly, the Us’s greatest vulnerability, and the impetus for predictions the views represented in this magazine are not necessarily those of prospect publishing of its decline (see Jon Huntsman on the chance to rewrite relations with china, Ltd. best endeavours have been taken in all cases to represent faithfully the views of all p16). Nor was either keen on bailing out the eurozone or rescuing syria—the real contributors and interviewees. the publisher accepts no responsibility for errors, “pivot” in the Us’s focus is towards its own problems, away from those of others. omissions or the consequences thereof. All the same, America’s strengths are clear, at least in comparison with Newstrade distribution comag specialist, tavistock road, others. As Antony beevor writes (p36), europe, gripped by a financial crisis West drayton, ub7 7qe, tel: 01895 433716 that threatens its hold on democracy, is still in the shadow of the second world Images Cover image: KeystoneUsA-ZUmA/rex war. christine ockrent (p17) argues that Fran�ois Hollande fails to understand Features how France is losing its place in europe. Japan, as Andy davis reports (p50), is Cartoons by: Grizelda, PC Vey, pete dredge, Naf, Joseph Farris, roger Latham, paul becoming a place where many people cannot afford to leave their parents’ home Wood, bob. or marry—a warning for china, as well as europe. ISSN: 13595024 Huge internal change now gives obama the chance to begin to solve the country’s greatest problems at home. If it is more inward looking as a result, that is the price of reinvention on the grand scale. TAILOR-MADE TRAVEL Luxury leather goods and accessories hand crafted in the United Kingdom Canvas and Leather Bags for the Elegant Traveller www.ettinger.co.uk Tel: +44 (0)20 8877 1616 Ettinger Map Ad Prospect 275x210.indd 1 8/10/12 3:55 PM Prospect deCeMber 2012 5 Contents December 2012 This month Features Arts & Books 8 If I ruled the world edwina currie 28 The best is yet to come 70 The shrinking screen 10 Recommends American decline is overstated Last chance saloon for film. stephanie zacharek 12 Diary bill emmott 14 Letters Thank Fox for that How not to campaign peter kellner Opinions 16 China’s ambitious new chief jon huntsman 73 From Plato to the credit crunch A flawed history of political thought. mark mazower 75 Cultural hallucination Kate Moss, blank slate. joy lo dico 36 Europe’s long shadow 17 Hollande’s Brussels problem Could the eurozone reject democracy? christine ockrent antony beevor 18 Wealthy pensioners paul johnson 18 Incompetent Cameron douglas carswell 76 The year in film plus stephen collins’s cartoon strip. francine stock 19 Aid is a poor answer to poverty 77 The year in books ian birrell sam leith 20 The UN’s own goal on schools clare lockhart 22 The complacent 1980s BBC Fiction tom carver 44 Hanging by a thread 80 Singing dumb 23 Universities reborn The politically savvy SAS martina devlin martin rees Exclusive pictures james elwes Winner of the 2012 VS Pritchett Memorial Prize, supported by Prospect Life 46 Saving Mrs Smith The NHS needs competition. 62 In praise of the cliché philip collins Thinking inside the box. Endgames hephzibah anderson 50 Generation J 84 The generalist 64 Watches Japan’s Parasite Singles. didymus andy davis Tell more than the time. 84 Enigmas & puzzles stephen bayley 54 Let them learn English ian stewart 66 Whisky India’s language wars hurt the poor. 85 The Prospect List What’s in a name? zareer masani Our pick of events alice lascelles 58 Reality is not enough 88 The way we were 68 Investment Google’s goggles.