Macroeconomics Free

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Macroeconomics Free FREE MACROECONOMICS PDF Charles I. Jones | 640 pages | 01 Mar 2014 | WW Norton & Co | 9780393923919 | English | New York, United States What is Macroeconomics? Definition of Macroeconomics, Macroeconomics Meaning - The Economic Times MacroeconomicsMacroeconomics of the behaviour of a national or regional economy as a whole. It is concerned with understanding economy- wide events such as the total amount of goods and services produced, the Macroeconomics of unemploymentand the general behaviour of prices. Unlike microeconomics —which Macroeconomics how individual economic actors, such as consumers Macroeconomics firms, make decisions— macroeconomics concerns itself Macroeconomics the Macroeconomics outcomes of those decisions. For that reason, in addition to using the Macroeconomics of microeconomics, such as supply-and-demand analysis, macroeconomists also utilize aggregate measures such as gross domestic product GDPMacroeconomics ratesand the consumer price index CPI to study the large-scale repercussions of micro-level Macroeconomics. Although complex macroeconomic structures have been Macroeconomics of human societies since Macroeconomics times, the discipline Macroeconomics macroeconomics is relatively Macroeconomics. Until the s most economic analysis was focused on microeconomic phenomena and concentrated primarily on the study of individual consumers, firms and industries. Accordingly, such economists believed that economy-wide events such as rising unemployment and Macroeconomics are like natural phenomena and cannot be avoided. If left Macroeconomics, market forces would eventually correct such problems; moreover, any intervention by the government in the operation of free markets would be Macroeconomics at best and destructive at worst. The classical view of macroeconomics, which was popularized in the 19th century as laissez-fairewas shattered by the Great Depressionwhich began in the United States in and soon spread to Macroeconomics rest of the industrialized Western world. The sheer scale of the catastrophewhich lasted almost a decade and left Macroeconomics quarter of the U. The theoretical foundations for that change were laid in —36, when the British economist John Macroeconomics Keynes published his monumental work The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Keynes argued that most of the adverse effects of Macroeconomics Great Depression could have Macroeconomics avoided had governments acted to counter the depression by boosting spending through fiscal policy. Keynes thus ushered in a new era of macroeconomic thought that viewed the economy as something that the government should actively manage. In contrast Macroeconomics the hands-off approach of classical economists, the Keynesians argued that governments have a duty to combat recessions. Although the ups and downs of the business cycle cannot be completely avoided, they can be tamed by timely intervention. At times of economic crisis, the economy is crippled because Macroeconomics is almost no demand for anything. Keynesians argued that, because it controls tax revenues, the government has the means to generate demand simply Macroeconomics increasing spending on goods and services during such times of Macroeconomics. In the s the first challenge to the Keynesian school of Macroeconomics came from the monetarists, who were led by the influential University of Chicago economist Macroeconomics Friedman. Friedman Macroeconomics an alternative explanation of the Great Depression: he argued that what had started as a recession was turned into a prolonged depression because of the disastrous monetary policies followed by the Federal Reserve System the central Macroeconomics of the United States. If the Federal Reserve had started to increase the money supply Macroeconomics on, instead of doing just the opposite, the recession could have been effectively tamed before it got out of control. In contrast to the Keynesian strategy of boosting demand through fiscal policy, monetarists favoured controlled increases in the Macroeconomics supply as a means of fighting off recesssions. Beyond that, the government should Macroeconomics intervening in free markets and the rest of the economy, according to monetarists. Macroeconomics Article Media Additional Info. Article Contents. Print print Print. Table Of Contents. Facebook Twitter. Give Feedback External Websites. Let us know if you have suggestions to improve this article requires login. Macroeconomics Websites. Columbia University - Economics - Edmund S. Macroeconomics Article History. Get exclusive access to content from our First Edition with your subscription. Subscribe today. Load Next Page. Macroeconomics - Wikipedia Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that focuses on the behavior and decision-making of Macroeconomics economy as a whole. Economics is comprised of many specializations; however, the two broad sub-groupings for economics are microeconomics and macroeconomics. In this manner it Macroeconomics from the field of microeconomics, which evaluates the Macroeconomics of and relationships between individual economic agents. Macroeconomics: Macroeconomics Flow of the Economy : Macroeconomics simplifies the complexities of the trading Macroeconomics in an economy by distilling Macroeconomics to primary participants and tracing Macroeconomics circular Macroeconomics of activity between them. Macroeconomists study aggregated indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, and price indices to understand how the whole economy functions and develop Macroeconomics that explain the relationship between such factors as Macroeconomics income, output, consumption, unemployment, inflation, savings, investment, government spending, and international trade. These variables taken as a whole comprise a grouping of variables that are referred to as economic indicators. These indicators, which are classified as leading, lagging and coincident Macroeconomics to their predictive capability, in combination with one another provide economists with a directional attribution for the economy. While macroeconomics is a broad field of study, there are two areas of research that are especially well publicized in the media: the evaluation of the business cycle and the growth rate of the economy. As a result, macroeconomics tends to be widely cited in Macroeconomics related to government Macroeconomics in economic expansion and contraction, as well as, with respect to the evaluation of economic policy. Though macroeconomics encompasses a variety of concepts and variables, but Macroeconomics are three central topics for macroeconomic research on a national level: output, Macroeconomics, and inflation. Outside of macroeconomic theory, these topics are also extremely important to all economic agents including workers, consumers, and producers. There are three choices that market actors can make with their Macroeconomics. They can consume it by spending it on goods and services. For example, buying a Macroeconomics ticket is spending money on consumption. They Macroeconomics also invest money by lending it to a company or project with the Macroeconomics of getting back more money in the future. Finally, they can save it by putting it Macroeconomics a bank account or keeping cash under the bed. Savings is essentially deferred consumption or investment; it Macroeconomics intended for use in the future. In Macroeconomics to understand the effects of aggregate decisions of consumption, savings, and investment, we must look at aggregate demand AD. AD is the total Macroeconomics for final goods and services in the economy at a given time and price level. It specifies the Macroeconomics of goods and services that will be purchased at all possible price levels and is the demand for the gross domestic product of a country. It is often cited that the aggregate demand curve is downward sloping because at lower price levels a greater quantity is Macroeconomics. While this is correct at the microeconomic, single good level, Macroeconomics the aggregate level this is incorrect. The aggregate demand curve is downward sloping but in variation with microeconomics, this is as a result of three distinct effects: Macroeconomics wealth effect, the interest rate effect and the exchange-rate effect. Basically individuals will consume or purchase more when they feel wealthier or have Macroeconomics to inexpensive funding. The Macroeconomics effect is specifically related to the value of assets; market participants will adjust consumption in-line with their perception of the appreciation or depreciation of held assets a home; equity investments, etc. The interest rate effect has to do with access to inexpensive funding, which provides an incentive to increase current period expenditures; Macroeconomics the Macroeconomics effect has to do Macroeconomics expenditure decisions related to imports or foreign related expenditures, as the exchange rate is perceived to be favorable to the domestic currency, expenditures Macroeconomics foreign items or imports will increase. Aggregate demand met by the market is spending, be it on consumption, investment, or other categories. For the economy as a whole, aggregate Macroeconomics is greater than or equal Macroeconomics investment, Macroeconomics is Macroeconomics in the Macroeconomics of borrowed funds available as a result of savings. Through investment spending, savings influences aggregate demand. Furthermore, since consumption and investment are components of GDP but saving is not, increased savings
Recommended publications
  • GMU, EMU, and the Bundesbank: the Political Economy of Recent EMS-Crises
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Hefeker, Carsten Working Paper GMU, EMU, and the Bundesbank: The political economy of recent EMS-crises Diskussionsbeiträge - Serie II, No. 221 Provided in Cooperation with: Department of Economics, University of Konstanz Suggested Citation: Hefeker, Carsten (1994) : GMU, EMU, and the Bundesbank: The political economy of recent EMS-crises, Diskussionsbeiträge - Serie II, No. 221, Universität Konstanz, Sonderforschungsbereich 178 - Internationalisierung der Wirtschaft, Konstanz This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/101700 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen
    [Show full text]
  • Managing Economic Recession Through Effective Tax Collection: the Nigerian Experience
    International Research in Economics and Finance; Vol. 1, No. 1; December, 2017 ISSN 2529-8038 Published by July Press Managing Economic Recession through Effective Tax Collection: The Nigerian Experience D. O. Gbegi1, J. F. Adebisi2 & Bodunde Tosin3 1 Department of Accounting Finance, University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Nigeria 2 Director General, Nigerian College of Accountancy, Kwall, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria 3 Department of Accounting, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria Correspondence: D. O. Gbegi, Department of Accounting Finance, University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Nigeria. Received: December 9, 2017 Accepted: December 27, 2017 Online Published: December 31, 2017 doi:10.20849/iref.v1i1.274 URL: https://doi.org/10.20849/iref.v1i1.274 Abstract Economic recession has eaten deep into the economy to the extent that taxes generated cannot serve as a pivot upon which the economy could strive. This study examines how economic recession can be managed through effective tax collection. Secondary data was obtained from the CBN statistical bulletin between periods of 2003 to 2016. Regression technique was used in testing the data collected with the aid of E-VIEWS. The study revealed that taxes do not have significant positive effect on the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, Government Spending, Capacity Utilization and Money Supply. Thus, it implies that taxes in Nigeria are rather unfortunately underexploited, which is an indication of poor tax collection system. This study therefore concludes that, tax should be considered as the urgent and needful panacea to rescue the current economic illness that Nigeria is currently facing. This should be done by ensuring that relevant tax authorities have good tax collection system like effective tax data base, effective E-tax registration, effective E-tax payment and all tax payers should have tax identification number.
    [Show full text]
  • Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
    CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Research Papers in Economics KOÇ UNIVERSITY-TÜSİAD ECONOMIC RESEARCH FORUM WORKING PAPER SERIES MEASURING AND PREDICTING HETEROGENEOUS RECESSIONS Cem Çakmaklı Richard Paap Dick van Dijk Working Paper 1206 February 2012 KOÇ UNIVERSITY-TÜSİAD ECONOMIC RESEARCH FORUM Rumelifeneri Yolu 34450 Sarıyer/Istanbul Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions ∗ Cem C¸akmaklı y,1 Richard Paap z,2 Dick van Dijk x,2 1Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Amsterdam 2Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam October 2011 Abstract This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov- switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct reces- sion regimes, corresponding with `mild' and `severe' recessions. All downturns start with a mild decline in the level of economic activity. Contractions that develop into severe recessions mostly correspond with periods of substantial credit squeezes as suggested by the ‘financial accelerator' theory. Multivari- ate Markov-switching models that allow for phase shifts between the cyclical regimes of industrial production and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index confirm these findings. Keywords: Business cycle, phase shifts, regime-switching models, Bayesian analysis JEL Classification: C11, C32, C51, C52, E32 ∗We would like to thank Paolo Giordani, Mark Jensen, Gary Koop, John Maheu, Hashem Pesaran and Rodney Strachan for helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank conference participants at the 2nd Conference on Recent Developments in Macroeconomics (ZEW, Mannheim, June 2010), the Rimini Conference in Economics and Finance (RCEF'10; Rimini, June 2010) and seminar participants at the Tinbergen Institute and the Helsinki Center of Economic Research.
    [Show full text]
  • The Home Depot, Inc
    The Home Depot, Inc. Equity Valuation Manuel Nora Dissertation written under the supervision of Prof. José Carlos Tudela Martins Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of requirements for the MSc in Finance, at the Universidade Católica Portuguesa, June 14th. Manuel Nora 30 April 2020 Sector: Retail - Home Improvement The Home Depot, Inc. (HD.N) Buy Recommendation Buy recommendation: This study establishes a 12-month target price of $269.3, NYSE: HD; USD 221.6 Equity Valuation Equity exposing the investor to a potential positive return of 22% compared to the Price Target USD 263.9 ↑ 22% current price. The target price was achieved using the DCF-method (WACC Scenario Analysis approach) supported by an in-depth analysis of the sector, macroeconomic Current L Shape U Shape V Shape Price recovery recovery recovery perspectives and the company’s financial reality. $221.6 $229.6 $239.2 $263.9 Profile: Headquartered in United States, Home Depot is the world’s largest ↑6% ↑11% ↑22% home improvement retailer and the fourth-largest US retailer. The company Key Data operates also in Canada and Mexico. The company offers three major product Market Cap: $238.02 billion lines: Building Materials (37%), Décor (33%) and Hardline (30%). The 52-week high: $247.02 (20/02/2020) company’s main customers can be divided in two types, DIY and professional 52-week low: $152.15 (20/03/2020) # Shares Outstanding: 1.07 billion customers. Free Float: 99.87% Market Leadership: Home Depot is a market leader (51% market share) with One-year Indexed (Weekly) Performance 130% Lowe’s as its main rival (35% market share).
    [Show full text]
  • Universal Basic Education and Economic Recession: the Need for Entrepreneurship Education
    Vol. 7(1), pp. 1-5, March 2019 DOI: 10.14662/IJARER2019.010 International Journal of Copy © right 2019 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article Academic Research in ISSN: 2360-7866 Education and Review http://www.academicresearchjournals.org/IJARER/Index.htm Full Length Research Universal Basic Education and Economic Recession: The Need for Entrepreneurship Education 1Dr. Justina Lere Charles-Zalakoro and 2Beetseh, Kwaghga 1Department of Arts Education, Faculty of Education, Niger Delta University Wilberforce Island, Amassoma Bayelsa State. E-mail: [email protected] 2Library Department University of Agriculture Makurdi, PMB 2373 Benue State Nigeria. Corresponding author’s E-mail: [email protected]/[email protected] Accepted 17 March 2019 Entrepreneurship education is necessary especially in this era of economic instability in the country. In recent times, the foundation level of education has most been affected. The present economic situation in Nigeria has destabilized our UBE programme in achieving its policy. This instability has generated negative effects on the basic education system. Although education had been in crisis for many years, the situation has recently been made worse by recession. Much of the difficulty in the universal basic education lies in the fact that the sector is poorly funded. This paper discusses the characteristics and vision for basic education, factors that lead to economic recession, concept of economic recession and entrepreneurship education for economic recovery. Finally it was recommended that government efforts on entrepreneurship development should move from the drawing board of dailies to concrete and practical steps, which are physical and graphical among others. Keywords: Universal Basic Education, economic recession and entrepreneurship education.
    [Show full text]
  • Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
    TI 2011-154/4 Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions Cem Cakmakli1 Richard Paap2 Dick van Dijk2 1 Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam; 2 Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Tinbergen Institute. Tinbergen Institute is the graduate school and research institute in economics of Erasmus University Rotterdam, the University of Amsterdam and VU University Amsterdam. More TI discussion papers can be downloaded at http://www.tinbergen.nl Tinbergen Institute has two locations: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam Gustav Mahlerplein 117 1082 MS Amsterdam The Netherlands Tel.: +31(0)20 525 1600 Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam Burg. Oudlaan 50 3062 PA Rotterdam The Netherlands Tel.: +31(0)10 408 8900 Fax: +31(0)10 408 9031 Duisenberg school of finance is a collaboration of the Dutch financial sector and universities, with the ambition to support innovative research and offer top quality academic education in core areas of finance. DSF research papers can be downloaded at: http://www.dsf.nl/ Duisenberg school of finance Gustav Mahlerplein 117 1082 MS Amsterdam The Netherlands Tel.: +31(0)20 525 8579 Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions ∗ Cem C¸akmaklı y,1 Richard Paap z,2 Dick van Dijk x,2 1Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Amsterdam 2Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam October 2011 Abstract This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov- switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct reces- sion regimes, corresponding with `mild' and `severe' recessions. All downturns start with a mild decline in the level of economic activity.
    [Show full text]
  • Staatliche Verantwortung Und Staatliches Versagen in Der Coronakrise
    Staatliche Verantwortung und staatliches Versagen in der Coronakrise von Frank Bodmer Dr. Frank Bodmer ist Privatdozent an der Universität Basel www.frankbodmer.ch [email protected] ISBN 978-3-9525396-1-3 © Frank Bodmer Publiziert als pdf Zweite, korrigierte Fassung St.Gallen, 15.4.2021 Das vorliegende Dokument darf für nichtkommerzielle Zwecke und unter Beachtung der übli- chen Zitierregeln frei genutzt werden. Für kommerzielle Zwecke wird um Kontaktaufnahme gebeten. 3 Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Die Fehler im staatlichen Krisenmanagement ............................................... 5 1.1 Eine neue Art von Systemkrise ...................................................................... 6 1.2 Risiken des Handelns versus Risiken des Unterlassens ................................. 7 1.3 Zwang versus Selbstverantwortung ............................................................... 8 1.4 Zielkonflikte und fehlender Konsens ............................................................. 9 1.5 Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse als Basis für das Krisenmanagement? .................. 10 1.6 Ein neues Risikomanagement für Pandemien .............................................. 11 2 Die gesundheitliche Krise ............................................................................ 13 2.1 Gesundheitliche Aspekte von Covid-19 ...................................................... 13 2.2 Die Sterblichkeit ........................................................................................... 15 2.3 Fallzahlen und Todeszahlen im internationalen Vergleich
    [Show full text]
  • Ijmt Issn: 2249-1058
    March IJMT Volume 2, Issue 3 ISSN: 2249-1058 2012 __________________________________________________________ Global Recession and its Impact on Developing Economies Smt.S.Binduja* Dr.V.J.R.Emerlson Moses** __________________________________________________________ Introduction: In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending, often following an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation. Definition: In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was "two down consecutive quarters of GDP". In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months. In the United States,the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant * HOD & Assistant Professor of Economics, Sree Devi Kumari Women’s College, Kuzhithurai. ** Assistant Professor and Research Guide, PG & Research Department of Economics, Muthurangam Govt. Arts College, Vellore. A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed Refereed Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories Indexed & Listed at: Ulrich's Periodicals Directory ©, U.S.A., Open J-Gage, India as well as in Cabell’s Directories of Publishing Opportunities, U.S.A.
    [Show full text]
  • Update: Coronavirus and the Markets - What We’Re Watching
    May 15, 2020 Update: Coronavirus and the Markets - What We’re Watching Reopening – it’s all we are focused on these days and rightfully so, everyone is itching to get back to some semblance of normalcy after a few months of quarantined life. A new normal is inevitable – a new way of working, of dining, of shopping, of flying, of greeting each other – while it can be uncomfortable, in some ways it’s a good thing. It will force us to be creative, to be innovative and try new ways of living. Technology is a prime example of this – what would have taken us years to adopt and trust, we’ve had to implement and rely heavily on in a matter of weeks. It’s presented a more human side to our daily interactions as well. The virtual structure has created a more personal environment and helped us communicate differently. It took us out of the board room and into a more intimate environment with casual attire and dogs and kids in the background. Reopening may in some ways bring us back to where we were and in other ways change us permanently. Regardless of what life post COVID-19 looks like, reopening needs to be met with great caution. Scientists and government officials alike comment reopening too quickly could cause more harm than good. Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force testified in front of a Senate committee this week noting just that, unless states are equipped to handle a potential sudden surge in cases, they should strongly consider the speed at which they open.
    [Show full text]
  • Building Stand out Partnerships During a Recession
    Building Stand Out Partnerships During a Recession A historical look at how profit-purpose partnerships are impacted by recession…and how 2020 is different 2020 Profit-Purpose Partnerships Recession Report 1 ECONOMIC AND PHILANTHROPIC CORRELATION Historically, the state of the economy and the state of philanthropy are directly correlated. Both typically witness a decline in times of recession and reap a surge in fundraising in times of economic recovery. However, with the extreme rise of corporate citizenship over the past decade and the unprecedented circumstances of our recent recession, we wanted to answer two questions: 1. What’s the relationship between corporate giving and a recession? 2. What might be different about this recession from previous ones that would ignite different outcomes for profit-purpose partnerships? 2020 Profit-Purpose Partnerships Recession Report 2 STATE OF THE UNION 2020 Profit-Purpose Partnerships Recession Report 3 STATE OF THE UNION: THE ECONOMY ECONOMIC U.S. GDP growth will contract by INTEREST RATES OIL & GAS Worldwide crude oil prices will GROWTH average $41 a barrel for the second 6.5% in 2020 (declined by 5% in 1st half of 2020 and $50/b in 2021. quarter alone). It will rebound to a Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 5% growth rate in 2021 and 3.5% It lowered in 2022. the current fed CLIMATE CHANGE Source: Federal Open Market Committee, 06.10.20 funds rate to a range between Extreme weather caused by climate UNEMPLOYMENT INFLATION 0.0% and change is forcing farms, utilities, and 0.25%. Federal other companies to declare Reserve has Inflation will average 0.8% in restarted its bankruptcy.
    [Show full text]
  • Intro: MARKUS BRUNNERMEIER Twitter: @Markuseconomist Markus’ Intro
    Intro: MARKUS BRUNNERMEIER Twitter: @MarkusEconomist Markus’ intro ▪ Previous/future webinars ▪ Jeremy Stein Fed-Treasury Credit Programs ▪ John Cochrane Economics of reopening ▪ Speakers The 3 crises ▪ Health crisis ▪ Health contagion ▪ Gaining time Shut-down ▪ Economy crisis ▪ Supply (chains), demand (hoarding) ▪ Shutdown ▪ Financial crisis ▪ Liquidity, solvency contagion 5/18/2020 3 Health and economic crisis 5/18/2020 4 Friedman “plucking model” Log of GDP Holds reasonable well for US during 1960 - 2008 but not internationally (Dupraz, Nakamura, Steinsson 2019) time ▪ What if there can be bubbles building up and bursting? 5/18/2020 5 US GDP in log scale 2008-Break in - Level - slope 5/18/2020 6 US GDP in log scale Housing bubble No recession, but NASDAQ bubble Reduced growth 2008 Break in - Level - Slope 5/18/2020 7 Audacity of what slope? ▪ stylized 2008 Break in 2020 COVID - Level - Slope 5/18/2020 8 COVID speeds up existing trends? ▪ Long-term trend COVID shock ▪ Negative or positive trends (home-office, tele-medice, …) ▪ See Tyler Cowen’s YouTube video 5/18/2020 9 Shocks and amplification ▪ Pre-crisis buildup ▪ Nature of the initial economic shock ▪ Temporary vs. permanent (V, U, L-shaped) ▪ Supply vs. demand (1970s) ▪ Aggregate vs. idiosyncratic (finance) ▪ … ▪ Nature of amplification/feedback effects/spirals/non-linearities ▪ Risk-on to risk-off: Flight-to-safety ▪ Runs, spirals ▪ Multiple equilibria Permanent vs. temporary shock ▪ What’s optimal policy? ▪ Blanchard’s 2 phases of crises ▪ “Whatever it takes” phase ▪ “Oh my god,
    [Show full text]
  • Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick Working Paper Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions Working Paper, No. 1206 Provided in Cooperation with: Koç University - TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum, Istanbul Suggested Citation: Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick (2012) : Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions, Working Paper, No. 1206, Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF), Istanbul This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/108590 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative
    [Show full text]