Climate Change Vulnerability in Bangladesh and Position of DSK

Climate Change Vulnerability in Bangladesh [Strategic Position of DSK/DCA in the field of climate change adaptation initiatives in Bangladesh]

A.K.M. Mamunur Rashid

[2009]

[ T YPE THE COMPANY ADDRESS ] Climate Change Vulnerability in Bangladesh: Strategic Position of DSK/DCA in the field of climate change adaptation initiatives in Bangladesh

Published by the Dustha Shastha Kendra (DSK) Authors: A.K.M. Mamunur Rashid, Dibalok Singha and Hasina Imam

Layout: Cover photo: Cyclone SIDR 2007 in Bangladesh First edition, May 2009 © DSK 2009 Published By: Dustha Shansta Kendra(DSK) and Dan Church Aid (DCA) Phone: + Fax: dsk@

CONTENTS

1. Bangladesh 3 2. Bangladesh in a Changing Climate 5 3. The concept of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) 8 4. Climate Change Adaptation Status in Bangladesh 10 5. Road to the Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh 5.1 Climate Change Hotspots in Bangladesh 5.2 Typology of social and livelihood groups vulnerable to climate change impact within each hotspot 5.3 Typology of vulnerability profile for selected agro-ecological zones and climate hazards 5.4 Typology and examples of adaptive responses 5.5 Cost of Inaction and Cost of Adaptation 5.6 Climate Change Adaptation initiatives in Bangladesh 5.7 Targeted CCA activities 5.8 DSK’s Position in Climate Change in Bangladesh

Annex

A. Climate Change: DSK’s Key Position and Action Points

Climate change is a major threat to sustainable growth and development in Bangladesh, and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals: urgent action is needed. Although Bangladesh is the country least responsible for climate change, it is particularly vulnerable to the effects, including reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, the increased incidence of both flooding and drought, spreading disease and an increased risk of conflict over scarce land and water resources. Support from development partners is needed to help Bangladesh cope with these effects. Action on a broader range of issues is also needed - by the wider international community, by multilateral and bilateral development agencies, and by Bangladesh government. It is important that Bangladesh should speak with a strong unified voice in future international negotiations, and that this voice should be heard.

1. Strong commitments to reducing carbon emissions will be essential in the successor to the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. The next stage in this process will be the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. We call for ambitious and binding commitments on reducing global emissions, including incentives for key developing countries to cut emissions, together with recognition of Bangladesh’s legitimate development needs.

2. Bangladesh has a legitimate need to increase its energy supply . It is in the wider global interest that Bangladesh should be able to develop clean energy sources. There is enormous potential for this, including through the development of Bangladesh’s huge hydro-power potential. We call for the full implementation of the Clean Energy and Development Investment Framework being developed by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and for a review of progress at the World Bank’s subsequent annual meetings. We also call for an intensified effort to encourage more private sector investment in renewable energies and energy efficiency and for agreement on specific measures to promote this both in the G8 and more widely.

3. Even if global carbon emissions were reduced tomorrow, Bangladesh would still be faced with the massive challenge of adapting to climate change . A 15-year Strategy ‘Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008’ has been developed jointly by the Ministry of Environment and Forest and Planning Commission. The estimated budget for the 15 year strategy is around US$ 5 billion. In spite of earlier international commitments, and strong support from DFID, EC, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, this strategy is not fully funded. We call for the current financing gap to be closed within the next 12 months and for development partners to systematically integrate adaptation issues into their policies, and in particular to provide more support to enable Bangladesh to respond to the effects of Climate Change.

4. The protection of forests is essential for reducing emissions from deforestation . Bangladesh’s forests do not make major contribution to protecting the global climate, but play very important contribution for environmental protection of Bangladesh. We call for the global and national action to protect the forests of Bangladesh and acknowledgement of the contribution of these forests to climate protection as a global public good . We will also continue our support for the Sundarbans Reserved Forest Conservation Initiative . We will support the development of new mechanisms to encourage and reward efforts to avoid deforestation .

5. Current carbon finance mechanisms are not delivering enough resources . More are needed. The Clean Development Mechanism, or purchasing emission reductions from projects in developing countries, has so far bypassed Africa. The Adaptation Fund, resourced by a 2% tax on CDM projects, could provide significant funds for adaptation, but has yet to do so. We call for a review of the design and operation of carbon finance mechanisms, in order to generate additional resources for Bangladesh, at the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change meeting in December 2009 in Copenhagen.

6. Climate change needs to be seen not only as an environmental concern but as a growing threat to sustainable development and poverty reduction in Bangladesh . We welcome the increased attention that this is now receiving in Bangladesh as well as globally. We call for the full integration of climate change issues into economic planning and management at both national and regional levels, and for this to be reflected in Poverty Reduction Strategies or their equivalents, and national budgets.

7. Much more resources are needed for climate risk management in Bangladesh . Only a tiny portion (less than 1%) of official development assistance (ODA) and concessional lending is specifically directed to adaptation. The Adaptation Fund, resourced by a 2% tax on clean development mechanism transactions (CDM) is a new source of funding for adaptation distinct from ODA. The CDM, a project- based mechanism designed to promote investment in projects that reduced or sequestered emissions of green house gases in developing countries, has the potential to provide funds to those countries but has not delivered for Bangladesh. Government of Bangladesh and Development partners must review carbon finance mechanisms to make them more easily accessible to Bangladesh for climate adaptation and to help Bangladesh meet its energy requirements while moving to cleaner energy. This must be accompanied by efforts to raise awareness about the potential benefits of CDM in helping Bangladesh develop new sectors such as renewable energy, and support by external partners for capacity development to elaborate and certify CDM projects. Decisions on the policies, programmes and eligibility procedures concerning the Adaptation Fund must be expedited to provide additional resources required by Bangladesh for climate adaptation. Access to the Global Environment Facility must be simplified and funding be made more readily available to small projects. The Government of Bangladesh must be prepared to evaluate the various carbon finance options in preparation for a more pro-active role at the next UNFCCC meeting in Copenhagen December 2009.

8. DSK takes stand beside the most vulnerable, extreme poor and marginalized peoples in building their capacity to adapt to climate change impacts in Bangladesh . DSK observe that often most vulnerable, extreme poor and marginalized people cannot control over the political decisions of adaptation. They are often seen as recipient and passive and therefore, their concerns and issues of adaptation are always undermined by the minority political, bureaucratic and intellectual elite. DSK will build capacity of most vulnerable, extreme poor and marginalized people in a way that they can raise their own concern and issues for climate change adaptation, particularly in design, implementation and monitoring process. DSK will build vulnerable peoples’ organization and facilitate collective effort of the extreme poor and marginal farmer households in climate change adaptation. DSK will initially concentrate its effort in Cyclone, Tidal Flood, Salinity, Water logging, Flood, and Flash Flood areas located in Coastal, Haor, flood plains and urban areas in Bangladesh.

9. DSK will work with other national and international stakeholders in the areas of agricultural and livelihood adaptation of poor, marginal farmers and extreme poor household in Bangladesh . DSK strongly believes that agriculture is the main livelihood of almost 60% people in this country. Due to climate change and negative impact of globalization, Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is extremely 5

vulnerable. Jute was the main cash crop for Bangladesh, and now it has become one of the minor crops in agriculture sector, we have lost many local varieties of rice and other agriculture species due to market economy and global environmental change. DSK believes that Bangladesh’s agriculture sector in general and specifically some extinctive agriculture prides (i.e. jute) need to revitalize with adequate secondary and tertiary sectoral support including agriculture based processing industries and international trades. DSK wants to build the capacity of different stakeholders and organize campaign for adaptive and regenerative agriculture in Bangladesh. The regenerative agriculture predominantly crop agriculture focus, however, DSK takes stand beside the position of both marginal peasants and marginal fisher folk. Therefore, our advocacy effort in agriculture sector will pursue for a right balance between crop agriculture and fisheries sector development for the greater interest for the country.

10. DSK advocates nationally and internationally to protect the rights and interest of most vulnerable, extreme poor and marginal people in relation to climate risk management . The citizen of Bangladesh has almost zero contribution to the green house gas emissions in global atmosphere in comparison to other countries. The suffering of the inhabitants of Bangladesh is worst among other countries in the world. This is an unjust, injustice and human right violation of the inhabitants of Bangladesh. DSK will advocate nationally and internationally for poor people benefits in designing and implementing any climate change projects or large scale trust fund. We want to take a stand that all the funding mechanism and implementation mechanism should directly benefit the climate change victim.

B. Analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability in Bangladesh

1. Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a low-lying, riverine country which is formed at the confluence of the Ganges (Padma), Brahmaputra (Jamuna), Meghna as well as their distributaries and tributaries (Rashid, 1991). It stretches latitudinally between 20˚34´ north and 26˚38´ north, and longitudinally 88˚01´ east and 92˚41´ east (BBS, 2006). The area of the country is 147,570 square km which consists mostly of low and flat land with a large coastline of 710 kilometers of the Bay of Bengal (ibid). The country is bounded by West Bengal (India) on the west, Assam and Meghalaya (India) on the north, and Assam, Tripura and Mizoram on the north-east and Mayanmar on the south-east and the Bay of Bengal on the south (Rashid, 1991).

There are 124.35 million people in Bangladesh where density of population is 843 (Census, 2001, BBS- 2006). Most of the people live in the rural areas which is 28.80 million in number (Banglapedia). On the other hand, urbanization is growing fast in the country. The population of the urban area is 94.34 million (ibid). Annual growth rate of the population is 1.47% (BBS, 2006). Per capita income of the people is 418 US dollar (ibid).

Bangladesh is almost a flat and fertile land except the hilly regions in the north-east, some areas of high lands in the north and north-western part (Rashid, 1991). Physiographically Bangladesh can be divided broadly into 3 regions, floodplain area, Pleistocene terrace, and tertiary hills (Final report, 2005, National Adaptation Programme for Action-NAPA). Each of these regions has distinct characteristic of its own. The floodplain covers 80% of the total area of Bangladesh, which consist of almost flat lands and depressions (back swamps or old channels). Floodplain areas are located in the north-western, central, south-central and north-eastern regions which are the most hazard prone areas of the country. Elevation of the tidal floodplains from sea level is less than 1 meter, 1 meter to 3 meters on the main rivers and estuarine floodplains. Pleistocene terrace covers 8% (ibid) of the area which consists of two major uplifted blocks, known as Madhupur (in the central Bangladesh) and Barind tracts in the northwest. Elevation of the Pleistocene terrace is more than 15m above MSL (mean sea level). The tertiary hill covers 12% of the country which occupy the Chittagong hills in the south-east, and the low hills and hillocks of Sylhet in the north-east. Elevation of the tertiary hill is more than 300m above MSL.

Bangladesh is a country of Tropic of Cancer which has a tropical monsoon climate characterized by heavy seasonal rainfall, moderately warm temperatures and high humidity. Regional climatic differences in this flat country are minor. In this country, three seasons are generally recognized: a hot, humid summer from March to June; a cool, rainy monsoon season from June to October; and a cool, dry winter from October to March. January is the coolest month of the year. The average temperature of the country ranges from 7.2 0C to 12.8 0C during winter and 23.9 0C to 31.1 0C during summer (BBS, 2006). The climate of the country is one of the wettest in the world. Average rainfall of the country is 203 cm (BBS, 2006). Most rainfall (80% of the total) occurs in the monsoon (June-September). The average relative humidity for the whole year of the country ranges from 78.1% at Cox's Bazar to 70.5% at Pabna (Banglapedia). March and April are the least humid months of the country, lowest relative humidity 57% and June-September is the highest humidity months, highest relative humidity over 80% (ibid).

There are three main categories of soils in Bangladesh: the old alluvial soils, the recent alluvial soils, and the hill soils (Rashid, 1991). The fertile recent alluvial soils found mainly in flood prone areas which are 7

usually pale brown, sandy, and chalky clays and loams. The old alluvial soils in the Barind and Madhupur jungles are dark brown (reddish) clays and loams. They are sticky during the rainy season and hard during the dry. The hill soils are generally permeable and can support dense forest growth.

Bangladesh is an agricultural country. 22% of the GDP and 48.1% of the labor force (BBS, 2006) are involved in agriculture. The production of agriculture is not satisfactory level because of the traditional farming system, inadequate supply of quality seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and similar other inputs, as well as lack of proper irrigation facilities. Beside these various natural calamities like flood, drought, salinity, etc also substantially affect agricultural productivity in the country.

Bangladesh is divided into 30 major agro-ecological zones (AEZ) according to physiography, soil types, land types by inundation and agro-climatology of the country (FAO, 1988). These ecological zones resemble homogeneity in agricultural and ecological features. It is being extensively used for agricultural production planning in Bangladesh as well as playing an important role in agricultural planning, technology transfer and designing specific bio-physical resource utilization programmes.

Bangladesh is called a land of rivers. Most of the land of the country is intersected by three major rivers including their tributaries, more than 310 (BBS, 2006) in number. The rivers are not evenly distributed. The rivers increase in numbers and size from the northwest of the northern region to the southeast of the southern region. The total length of all rivers, steams, creeks and channel is 24,140 km (ibid) which crisscross the country. Principal rivers of the country are Padma, Brahmputra, Jamuna, Surma, Kushiyara, Meghna, Karnafuli, Madhumati, Rupsha, Pashur, Feni etc. Usually the rivers flow south and serve as the main source of water for irrigation. These rivers are used water ways for commercial transportation. The rivers also provide sweet water fish. A large number of people are engaged in the fishing sector. On the other hand, these rivers are the source of river bank erosion and floods which are the main hazard of the country.

There are about 1.3 million ponds covering about 1,47,000 ha (Banglapedia) in Bangladesh. There are about 10,000 haors, baors and beels (ibid). Ponds are the reservoir of water which provides sweet water fish. These also use as the source of irrigation. Haors, baors and beels provide sweet water fish. In rainy season, these are the cause of flood of the area.

2. Bangladesh in a Changing Climate

IPCC report (4th assessment report, 2007) includes observed changes in natural and managed system. A set of observed effects due to changes in the cryosphere are found. Effects of changes in the cryosphere have been documented in relation to cryospheric components (mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets and ice shelves, snow cover, sea ice, ocean freshening, circulation and ecosystems, lake and river ice etc).

The observed effects of cryosphere reduction include modification of river regimes due to enhanced glacial melt, snowmelt advance and enhanced winter base flow; and disappearance of surface lakes in thawing permafrost; decrease in potential travel days of vehicles over frozen roads in the Arctic; enhanced potential for glacier hazards and slope instability due to mechanical weakening driven by ice and permafrost melting; regional ocean freshening; sea-level rise due to glacier and ice sheet shrinkage; biotic colonisation and faunal changes in deglaciated terrain; changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems affected by lake-ice and sea-ice reduction; changes in livelihoods; reduced tourism activities related to skiing, ice climbing and scenic activities in cryospheric areas affected by degradation; and increased ease of ship transportation in the Arctic.

Assessment of average temperature and precipitation over Bangladesh has been done using a new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN based upon over a dozen recent GCMs. The results obtained by Agrawala et al. (2003) for changes in temperature have been adopted by The National Adaptation Programme for Action (NAPA) for Bangladesh. But the results of Agrawala et al. regarding changes in precipitation were modified. Identified changes are as follows-

Table 1: Scenarios provided in NAPA document

Temperature change (°C) mean Rainfall change (%) mean Sea Level Rise (cm) Year Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA 2030 1.0 1.1 0.8 5 - 2 6 14 2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 - 5 8 32 2100 2.4 2.7 1.9 10 - 10 12 88 Source: NAPA, 2005

A scenario of sea-level rise has also been presented in The NAPA document. However there were no evidences presented in the document in support of the data. Eventually the upper values of the IPCC SLR Scenario was adopted for developing the scenarios for 2050 and 2100, while the curve was extrapolated for developing the 2030 SLR scenario (NAPA, 2007).

Using a number of GCMs including Canadian Climate Centre Model (CCCM), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory equilibrium model (GFDL), and 1% transient model of GFDL (i.e., GF01), a model-driven climate change scenario was generated:

Table 2: Outputs of GCM exercise using GFD 01 transient model

Year Average Temperature Temperature increase Average Precipitation Precipitation Increase

W M Ave W M Ave W M Ave W M Ave (oC) (oC) Mm/month Mm/Month 1990 19.9 28.7 25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 418 179 0 0 0 2030 21.4 29.4 27.0 1.3 0.7 1.3 18 465 189 +6 47 10 2075 22.0 30.4 28.3 2.1 1.7 2.6 00 530 207 -12 112 28 Source: Ahmed, 2006

Another model-driven climate change scenario was generated based on ensemble technique which is applicable for Bangladesh:

Table 3: GCM projections for changes in temperature and precipitation for Bangladesh

Temperature change (°C) mean Rainfall change (%) mean Year (standard deviation) (standard deviation) Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA Baseline average +4.7 1.0 (0.11) 1.1 (0.18) 0.8 (0.16) 3.8 (2.30) -1.2 (12.56) 2030 (3.17) +6.8 2050 1.4 (0.16) 1.6 (0.26) 1.1 (0.23) +5.6 (3.33) -1.7 (18.15) (4.58) +11.8 2100 2.4 (0.28) 2.7 (0.46) 1.9 (0.40) +9.7 (5.8) -3.0 (31.6) (7.97) Source: Ahmed, 2006

Projected temperature rise according to the Bangladesh Country Study for the U.S. Country Studies Program was 1.3°C by 2030 (over mid-20th century levels) and 2.6°C by 2070. However, this projection was made using an older version of the Geographical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) transient model (Manabe et al., 1991). This is slightly higher than the projection made in Table 1 and may reflect lower climate sensitivity in more recent climate models. Nonetheless, the central findings are coherent with the analysis presented above: the report estimated that winter warming would be greater than summer warming. Also according to the estimation in the study, there would be little change in winter precipitation and enhancement in precipitation during the monsoon (Ahmed and Alam, 1999).

The above projections of climate parameters may be concluded that the country will be highly susceptible to: (a) increased flooding, both in terms of extent and frequency; (b) increased moisture stress during dry periods leading to increased drought susceptibility in terms of both intensity and frequency; and (c) increased salinity intrusion during the low flow conditions.

These changes in the physical system of the country will directly affect a number of major productive systems that include (a) crop agriculture, (b) livestock production, (c) aquaculture and fish production, (d) coastal shrimp production, and (e) forest and vegetation and (f) livelihoods of poor and marginal households. Due to changes in temperature and humidity, human health will also be affected. The high susceptibility to water-based natural hazards will affect settlement of the population and also physical immobile infrastructure. Based on secondary sources, the following sub-sections provide brief understanding on anticipated impacts of climate change on bio-physical aspects of the country.

The following are key likely impacts due to climate change extracted from different impact predictions for Bangladesh.

• Heat stress will increase and summer duration would be longer. Huge pressures on basic facilities and existing support services (water, sanitation and health). • Inadequate water supply and health facilities for the poor within the hotspots. Decrease ground water supply, deteriorate water quality, reduce recharge of ground water, and reduce water availability for rain fed-agriculture. • Rainfall erratic and untimely. • Increase social and mental health stress, food security, safe drinking water problem, insecure shelters, and unsafe health condition. • Loss of forestation and degradation of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity. The composition of Geographic distribution of ecosystems will change as individual species respond to new conditions due climate change. • Sea level rise and salinity intrusion in the coastal zone. Small islands are extremely vulnerable. Thousands of people are displacing from coastal and islands community. Possible more sea level rise will dislocate millions from their livelihoods and displace them from settlements. • Huge damages of livelihood resources, livestock and live support systems by climatic extremes (Floods, erosion, cyclones etc.) enhance mass migration. • Damages of infrastructures and poor housing and phenomenal growth in human settlements and communication. • Over 35 millions will be climate refugees in Bangladesh by 2050. This will induce internal and external migration. Drought prone areas in Bangladesh in Rajshahi region. It facing many challenges in Agriculture, commerce and forestry sector. • Cyclone and Salinity affected Coastal Zones of Bangladesh Flood affected People Poor/Climate Refugees are on move to main Cities in Bangladesh from different Climate Hotspots • Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) would be unsuccessful within the hotspots and economic and all development process will face various obstacles and GDP is not being achieved. • Increase some infectious vectors disease such as malaria and Schistosomiasis and nuisance attack. • Forced migration and social conflicts increasing gradually from hotspots to safer zones. Unplanned urbanization and growing slums in the big cities rapidly.

3. The concept of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)

Adaptation refers both to the process of adapting and to the condition of being adapted. The term has specific interpretations in particular disciplines. In ecology, for example, adaptation refers to changes by which an organism or species becomes fitted to its environment (Lawrence, 1995; Abercrombie et al., 1997); whereas in the social sciences, adaptation refers to adjustments by individuals and the collective behavior of socioeconomic systems (Denevan, 1983; Hardesty, 1983).

The act of adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts is known as Adaptation. This term refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate. Adjustments are done to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or activities to climatic change and variability. Adaptation has two-fold importance in the climate change issue—one relating to the assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities, the other to the development and evaluation of response options.

Adaptation actions and strategies complement mitigation. Mitigation is the process of reducing the likelihood of adverse conditions. On the other hand, adaptation can be viewed as reducing the severity of many impacts if adverse conditions prevail. The process of adaptation reduces the level of damages that might have otherwise occurred. However, adaptation is a risk-management strategy that is not free of cost or foolproof, and the worthiness of any specific actions must therefore carefully weigh the expected value of the avoided damages against the real costs of implementing the adaptation strategy.

Adaptation management process depend on many factors, including who or what adapts, what they adapt to, how they adapt, what resources are used and how, and ,many others theme(IPCC,1998). Human societies have shown endearing capacity for adapting to different climates and environmental changes throughout the ages. As evidenced by the widespread and climatically diverse location of human settlements throughout the world, humans have learned how to thrive in a wide variety of climate regimes, ranging from cold to hot and from humid to dry. The proof of an inherent desire and capacity to adapt can be seen from the resilience and flexibility exhibited in the patterns of human settlements.

Success of adaptation depends critically on the availability of necessary resources, not only financial and natural resources, but also knowledge, technical capability, and institutional resources. The types and levels of required resources, in turn, depend fundamentally on the nature and abruptness of the actual or anticipated environmental change and the range of considered responses. Adaptation processes are highly complex and dynamic, often entailing many feedbacks and dependencies on existing local and temporal conditions. The uncertainties introduced by the complexity, scale, and limited experience with respect to anthropogenic climate change explain the limited level of applied research conducted thus far on adaptation, the reliance on mechanistic assumptions, and the widespread use of scenarios and historical analogues. In addition, many social, economic, technological and environmental trends will

critically shape the future ability of societal systems to adapt to climate change. While such factors as increased population and wealth will likely increase the potential level of material assets that are exposed to the risks of climate change, greater wealth and improved technology also extend the resources and perhaps the capabilities to adapt to climate change.

Typology of adaptation

Adaptations have various forms. Adaptation types (i.e., how adaptation occurs) have been differentiated according to numerous attributes (Carter et al., 1994; Stakhiv, 1994; Bijlsma et al., 1996; Smithers and Smit, 1997; UNEP, 1998; Leary, 1999; Bryant et al., 2000; Reilly and Schimmelpfennig, 2000). Commonly used distinctions are purposefulness and timing. Autonomous or spontaneous adaptations are considered to be those that take place—invariably in reactive response (after initial impacts are manifest) to climatic stimuli—as a matter of course, without the directed intervention of a public agency. Estimates of these autonomous adaptations are now used in impact and vulnerability assessment. Planned adaptations can be either reactive or anticipatory (undertaken before impacts are apparent). Adaptations can be short or long term, localized or widespread, and they can serve various functions and take numerous forms.

General Differentiating Examples of Terms Used Concept or Attribute Autonomous Planned Spontaneous Purposeful Automatic Intentional Purposefulness Natural Policy Passive Active Strategic

Anticipatory Responsive Timing Proactive Reactive Ex ante Ex post

Short term Long term Tactical Strategic Temporal Scope Instantaneous Cumulative Contingency Routine

Spatial Scope Localized Widespread

Retreat - Accommodate - Protect Function/Effects Prevent - Tolerate - Spread - Change - Restore

Structural - Legal - Institutional - Regulatory - Financial – Form Technological

Performance Cost - Effectiveness - Efficiency - Implement ability - Equity

Bases for characterizing and differentiating adaptation to climate change (Smit et al., 1999).

4. Climate Change Adaptation Status in Bangladesh

In 2002, CARE Bangladesh implemented Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change (RVCC) project as the first climate change adaptation project at community project in southwest region of Bangladesh. The project piloted several adaptation strategies and options in the context of salinity, flood, waterlogging and drought.

In 2005, National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) was introduced by the Government, where following regional consultations, NAPA suggested range of adaptation strategies for Bangladesh. By collating available information from literature and through four regional consultations, the NAPA document highlighted a few adaptation measures and prioritized them. The following are the adaptation measures which have received endorsement of the Government of Bangladesh through NAPA exercise. It is important to note that the proposed adaptation measures are primarily based on existing coping mechanisms and practices, as well as ‘needs based suggestions’ forwarded by national experts in relevant field/sector.

Intervention Type Measures

• Promoting adaptation to coastal crop agriculture to combat salinization through maize production under Wet Bed No tillage Method and Sorjan systems of cropping in tidally flooded agro-ecosystem. • Adaptation to agriculture systems in areas prone to enhanced flash flooding – North East and Central Region through no-tillage potato cultivation under water hyacinth mulch in wet sown condition, and Vegetable Cultivation on Floating Bed. • Promoting adaptation to coastal fisheries through culture of salt tolerant fish especially in coastal areas of Bangladesh. • Adaptation to fisheries in areas prone to enhanced flooding in North East and Central Region through adaptive and diversified fish culture practices. • Construction of flood shelter, and information and assistance centre to cope with enhanced recurrent floods in major floodplains. • Reduction of Climate Change Hazards through Coastal afforestation with community focus. • Providing drinking water to coastal communities to combat enhanced salinity due to sea level rise. • Enhancing resilience of urban infrastructure and industries to impacts of climate change including floods and cyclone.

Facilitating Type Measures

• Capacity building for integrating Climate Change in planning, designing of infrastructure, conflict management and landwater zoning for water management institutions. • Exploring options for insurance and other emergency preparedness measures to cope with enhanced climatic disasters (e. g. flood, cyclones and drought). • Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change into policies and programmes in different sectors (focusing on disaster management, water, agriculture, health and industry). • Inclusion of climate change issues in curriculum at secondary and tertiary educational institution.

• Climate change and adaptation information dissemination to vulnerable community to raise awareness. • Promotion of research on drought, flood and saline tolerant varieties of crops to facilitate adaptation in future. • Development of eco-specific adaptive knowledge (including indigenous knowledge) on adaptation to climate variability to enhance adaptive capacity for future climate change.

There are several community based adaptation projects are undertaken in Bangladesh by Practical Action, ActionAid, Area Development Organization, Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies, Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme, FAO, IUCN, Prodipan, Nabolok, RDRS and some other NGOs. Government of Bangladesh is currently formulating a long term climate change strategy in Bangladesh after rejecting the climate change strategy formulated in 2008.

5. Road to the Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh

5.1 Climate Change Hotspots in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a small country with a land area of 145,600 KM2 and population more than 140 million. There are some places which are in more dangerous condition due to the impacts of climate change. These are called climate change hotspots. It examines the potential caring penalty of climate change within the next 20 to 30 years. Climate change is taking place at a rapid rate outstripping many worst- case predictions. Climate-related disaster events are having an impact on more communities around the globe. Humanitarian organizations have realized that climate change does not mean ‘business as usual’. The extent, nature and patterns of natural hazards and disasters are changing and very likely will continue to do so.

Climate change hotspots in Bangladesh are determined based on the following considerations: hazard exposures, impact on biodiversity and conservation of marine and coastal resources, impact on life, livelihood and wellbeing of inhabitants of the areas. The degree of vulnerability of human health, water, agriculture and commercial forestry sector is also considered in identifying hotspots. The major climate change hotspots in Bangladesh are as follows:

• Cyclone-risk hotspots start from Bay of Bengal and damage crop, vegetation and lead to floods and storm surges. It includes the Coastal districts located in the southern area of the country. Cyclones and tidal surges attacked Bangladesh in 1991, 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2007.

• Flood-risk hotspots were identified in Middle and Northern-Eastern part of Bangladesh. Recent severe floods: 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007. Floods in Bangladesh in 2007 occur two times prolonged causing 40% crop loss, outbreak of diarrhea diseases and severe food insecurity.

• Drought-risk hotspots in Bangladesh are mainly located in Northern-West region which includes Rajshahi, Kurigram, Nilphamary, Rangpur and Dinajpur districts. Bothe extent and severity of drought has increased and the consequences are Poverty, food insecurity and hunger.

• Salinity risk hotspots are located mainly in coastal districts which have a vast network of rivers and a large number of islands. Salinity intrusion started from the lower-upper area of coastal region to nearest upholds.

5.2 Typology of social and livelihood groups vulnerable to climate change impact within each hotspot

Global climate change is likely to affect everyone on the Earth to some degree, whether in the form of social, psychological, economic or environmental change, or a combination of these. Some people will invariably be more affected than others. Typically these will be the poorest people and the most vulnerable communities who may have little information about impending hazards and are often the least able to rebuild their lives and livelihoods after having suffered a setback. The sea level rising and losing of Land in Bangladesh are the Social Dimensions of Climate Impacts. Increasing conflicts over 16

scarce resources and livelihood of billions of poor is threatened. The poor and vulnerable people of Bangladesh living in different hotspots are already facing various natural disasters such as sea level rise, salinity, cyclone, storm surge, flood, flash flood, river bank erosion and droughts. The scenario development workshop identified following social and vulnerable groups in each hotspots.

• Small/Marginal farmer, landless, fisherman • Wage laborer, agricultural laborer, ethnic minority • Petty business and large business man • Disable, old person and widow • Poor, specially-woman and children • Poor orphan, ultra poor and beggar man

In addition to the abovementioned social and vulnerable groups, the following social and vulnerable groups are specifically vulnerable in particular hotspots.

Flood Hotspots - Char dwellers - Livestock traders and small scale milk producers - School going children

Flash Flood Hotspots - Small and medium Farmers

Cyclone/Sea Level Rise/Salinity Hotspots - Sundarban Resource Users - Fisher Folk - Sweetwater fish cultivators - Small and Medium farmers - Women and children involved in potable water collection - Shrimp fry collectors - Shrimp farmers

Drought Hotspots - Santal, Oraon, Mahato and other ethnic minorities - Agri-labourers - Small and marginal farmers - Pond fish cultivators

5.3 Typology of vulnerability profile for selected agro-ecological zones and climate hazards

Analyzing the BBS data, existing hazard information available in disaster management bureau and participatory scenario development workshop, vulnerability of different agro-ecological zone is determined. This analysis is importantly done due agriculture prominent economy of Bangladesh.

Table 4: Vulnerability of different agro-ecological from different hazard.

AEZ AEZ Zone Area (Sq. Km) Population Climatic Hazards/ Likely Exposure to Climate Change No. 17

Flood Drought Erosion Cyclone Salinity Very severe, Old Himalayan Piedmont 01 3796 2532670 Severe and Plain moderate Erosion 02 Active Tista Floodplain 1062 1024610 Severe prone Tista Meander Floodplain 9351 8684660 03 moderate

04 Karatoya-Bangali Floodplain 2369 2750890 moderate moderate Moderate 05 Lower Atrai Basin 828 672850 and low Lower Purnarbhaba 06 132 104530 Floodplain Active Brahmaputra-Jamuna Erosion 07 2537 2663930 Severe Moderate Floodplain prone Young Brahmaputra and 08 5597 9138700 Low Moderate Jamuna Floodplain Erosion 09 Old Brahmaputra Floodplain 7057 7772380 Low Prone Erosion 10 Active Ganges Floodplain 2529 3045890 Severe Prone Severe and 11 High Ganges River Floodplain 13068 11253960 Low Moderate Erosion 12 Low Ganges River Floodplain 7676 7609750 Moderate Moderate Prone Very Severe, High Ganges Tidal Floodplain Erosion Salinity 13 14846 9848950 Severe Severe and Risk and (including Sundarbans) Prone Prone Moderate Risk 14 Gopalganj-Khulna Bils 2208 1709670 Moderate 15 Arial Bil 150 411330 Middle Meghna River Erosion 16 1277 1959790 Moderate Floodplain Prone Lower Meghna River 17 820 1125560 Moderate Floodplain Young Meghna Estuarine Erosion High risk Salinity 18 5834 5563110 Severe Floodplain prone and Risk prone Old Meghna Estuarine Moderate 19 7624 9917680 Floodplain and Low Eastern Surma-Kusiyara Erosion 20 4421 3035900 Moderate Floodplain Prone Moderate 21 Sylhet Basin 4456 3020580 and Low Northern and Eastern 22 Piedmont 4139 3420670 Severe Plain Erosion High Salinity 23 Chittagong Coastal Plain 3289 4438460 Moderate Prone Risk Prone 24 St. Martin's Coral Island 4 3340 High risk 25 High Barind Tract 1558 1294180 Very severe Very severe 26 Level Barind Tract 4944 4283530 and Severe 27 North-eastern Barind Tract 1036 1008220 28 Madhupur Tract 4162 7512850 Severe 29 Northern and Eastern Hills 18503 6975020 30 Akhaura Terrace 112 144080

Analysis based on enumerated census data (BBS, 2003), Draft National Disaster Management Plan (2008) and Participatory Scenario development workshop conducted under the present study.

5.4 Typology and examples of adaptive responses

The scenario development workshops and secondary review of literatures suggested the following adaptation options and practices in different climate change hotspots.

FLOOD PRONE REGIONS Typology of adaptation Adaptation option Purposefulness Timing Resilient Housing Flood Resilient Housing Structure Autonomous Anticipatory, Proactive Structure Raising Plinth of the House Spontaneous Anticipatory, Proactive Flood Resilient Crop Storage Autonomous Anticipatory, Proactive Food Preservation Spontaneous Anticipatory, Proactive Homestead Gardening Spontaneous Proactive, Reactive Adapting with Food China Autonomous Anticipatory Insecurity Maize spontaneous Anticipatory Kaon Autonomous Anticipatory Felon Autonomous Anticipatory Pera Autonomous Anticipatory Adapting with Water Protecting Fresh Drinking Water Through Autonomous Proactive Scarcity Raising Tubewell’s Plinth Adapting with Energy Traditional Ways of Preservation of Fuels Spontaneous Proactive, Re active Use and Efficiency Seed storage Autonomous Proactive Alternative Livelihood – Mushuri Kalai Autonomous Anticipatory, proactive Organic Manure Spontaneous Proactive Duck Rearing Spontaneous Proactive, Reactive Optimizing Production Peanut Plantation Spontaneous Proactive Proviso Sugar Cane Autonomous Proactive Banana Spontaneous Proactive Bhenda – A Medicinal Plant Spontaneous Proactive Conservation of Tall Grasses (Kashban) Autonomous Anticipatory Adapting and Autonomous, Constructions of Protection Embankment Proactive Community Resilience Planned

FLASH FLOOD PRONE REGIONS Adaptation typology Adaptation Purposefulness Timing Protecting Homestead and Embankments Resilient Housing Autonomous Proactive in the Haor Regions Structure Housing pattern of Hilly Area Spontaneous Proactive Optimizing Production Adapting in Wetla nds – Harvesting Plants Spontaneous Proactive Proviso Duck Rearing Spontaneous Proactive, Re active Harvesting Firewood from Flash Floods Spontaneous Reactive Murta Cultivation and Weaving Shitol Pati Autonomous Proactive , Re active Manufacturing Cane Fur niture in Autonomous Proactive , Re active Shunamgonj 19

Seeds Storage Autonomous Proactive Protection Embankment Autonomous Proactive Community Resilience Bridge over Troubled Water Autonomous Reactive

WATER LOGGED REGIONS Adaptation typology Adaptation option Purposefulness Timing Proactive, Hazard Resilient Crop Storage Autonomous Adapting with food Anticipatory insecurity Proactive, Food Preservation Autonomous Anticipatory Adapting with energy Traditional Ways of Preservation of Fuels Spontaneous Proactive, reactive use and efficiency Proactive, Floating Agriculture Autonomous Anticipatory Organic Manure Spontaneous Proactive Optimizing production Fish Collection Spontaneous reactive proviso and adapting Proactive, The Kandi Method Autonomous Anticipatory Proactive, Reed Mat Weaving Autonomous Anticipatory Adapting and Cohesion and Cooperation in Dewatering Autonomous reactive community resilience Proactive, Integrating Farming Autonomous Anticipatory, reactive

SALINITY PRONE REGIONS Adaptation typology Adaptation option purposefulness Timing Striving for Food Proactive, Kewra Autonomous Security Anticipatory Proactive, Rain Water Harvesting Autonomous Anticipatory Proactive, Preserving Fresh Drinking Water in Spontaneous Anticipatory, Adapting with water Coastal Zones Reactive scarcity Sourcing and Harvesting Drinking Water – Autonomous Proactive, Reactive Ring Well Pond Water Conservation for Drinking Autonomous Proactive, Reactive purpose Adapting with energy Traditional Ways of Preservation of Fuels Spontaneous Proactive, Reactive use and efficiency Shrimp Cultivation Autonomous Anticipatory Reed Mat Weaving Autonomous Reactive Prawn Renu Autonomous Reactive Optimizing production Crab Aquaculture Autonomous Anticipatory proviso and adapting Anticipatory, Salted lives and Silted Livelihood: Golpata Autonomous Reactive Anticipatory, Salt Cultivation Autonomous Reactive

CYCLONE PRONE REGIONS Adaptation Typology Adaptation option Purposefulness Timing Anticipatory, Resilient Housing Structure and Adapting Autonomous proactive

DROUGHT PRONE REGIONS Adaptation Typology Adaptation option Purposefulness Timing Resilient Housing The Mud House in Weather Extremities Spontaneous Proactive Structure and Adapting The Rakkha Gola Autonomous Proactive Adapting with Food Homestead Gardening Spontaneous Proactive Insecurity Maize Spontaneous Proactive Heat Tolerant Rice Cultivation Autonomous Proactive Dealing with Drinking in Dry Days Spontaneous Reactive Adapting with water Conservation of Surface Water Autonomous Reactive scarcity Mini Ponds, Many Lessons Autonomous Reactive Adapting with energy Traditional Ways of Preservation of Fuels Spontaneous Reactive, Proactive use and efficiency Nurturing the Natural Dewdrops Spontaneous Reactive Mango Cultivation Autonomous Reactive Lakkha as Alternative Livelihood Autonomous Reactive Optimizing production Apel Kul Cultivation in the Drylands Autonomous Reactive proviso Organic Manure Spontaneous Proactive Seeds Storages Autonomous Reactive Duck Rearing Spontaneous Proactive

5.5 Cost of Inaction and Cost of Adaptation

The economic effects of climate change are, namely, the “costs of inaction” and the “costs of adaptation”. 'Inaction' is defined as the counterfactual or reference from which the costs and benefits of different policy or actions can be evaluated. Strictly speaking the 'costs of inaction' can reflect many different possible future reference scenarios, but in practice, the term is usually taken to represent the future baseline without mitigation (and planned adaptation).

The costs of inaction are often expressed as the social cost of climate change, or the social cost of carbon. Even within these definitions there are different ways that the costs of inaction can be expressed, depending on assumptions on the given baseline, scenario, the level of adaptation (whether included or excluded), and whether these costs refer to total or average costs, or marginal costs.

Adaption, too, has a cost, e.g. as in IPCC (2001), the 'Cost of planning, preparing for, facilitating and implementing adaptation measures, including transition costs'. This is countered by the benefits of adaptation (IPCC) as 'the avoided damage cost or the accrued benefits following the adoption and the implementation of adaptation measures'. If, net of adaptation costs, the negative consequences induced

by climatic stimulus are reduced, or its positive consequences are enhanced, there are benefits from adaptation. If not, then this potentially leads to mal-adaptation.

Adaptation (autonomous or planned) will reduce the baseline costs of inaction, even without mitigation policy. Adaptation also can reduce down the residual costs of inaction after mitigation policy has been introduced, e.g. reducing the impacts of climate change even if, say, the 2 °C target is achieved. In both cases there are economic benefits from adaptation as it reduces the economic costs that would otherwise occur from climate change. Furthermore, it is possible to consider the interaction between the costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation in a purely economic framework, where along with the residual costs of inaction (see equation above), all three can be considered potential partial substitutes, e.g. where further action on mitigation reduces the need to adapt, and vice versa. Thus it is possible to frame a trade-off between adaptation and mitigation as part of an optimal economic decision on how best to react to climate change.

Three participatory scenario development workshops are conducted in three hotspots (Satkhira, for salinity, Barguna for sea level rise and cyclone, and Naogaon for drought contexts) to estimate cost of inaction and cost of adaptation at local level.

The scenario workshops identified the follow scenario for cost of inaction and cost of adaptation in the context of climate change impacts in a particular sub-district.

Table 5: Summary Results of the scenario development workshops in three climate change hotspots in Bangladesh

Climate Change Typology of Social and livelihood District Upazila The element at climate risk Cost of inaction Adaptation options Cost of Adaptation Vulnerability groups Context

100% of agricultural land and 80% crop 230,00,00,000 P/A Coastal Embankment 100,00,00,000 Small scale shrimp farmers 75% of shrimp farms 1000,00,00,000 P/A Killa and high raise grass field 3,00,00,000 Small and marginal crop farmers 95% livestock 6,00,00,000 P/A Alternative and adaptive fisheries 10,00,00,000 Women and children collect drinking water 80% trees and plants 6,00,00,000 P/A Adaptive plantation 1,00,00,000 Sundarban Resource users Salinity and 95% drinking water sources 1,00,00,000 P/A + Alternative Livelihoods 75,00,00,000 Satkhira Assasuni Fishermen in Sea/River Sea Level Rise 85% livelihood 100,00,00,000 P/A Health Education and facilities 10,00,00,000 Agri-labourers 80% Rabi crops 50,00,00,000 P/A Rain water harvesters and PSF 25,00,00,000 Day labourers 50% fish catch in river 90,00,00,000 P/A Saline tolerant tree plantation (SF) 50,00,000 Women become widowed by tiger attack 65% health 9,00,00,000 P/A Coastal aforestation 3,00,00,000 Small and medium scale fish traders 55% household income (non-formal) 50,00,00,000 P/A Non-formal enterpreneurship at HH 50,00,00,000

70% of Agricultural land and crop 160,61,00,000 P/A Marginal Farmers 80% Livestock 3,00,00,000 P/A Coastal Embankment 100,00,00,000 Middle Peasants 90% Freshwater fisheries 7,00,00,000 P/A Killa and high raise grass field 5,00,00,000 Fish Farmers 75% Trees and Plants 2,00,00,000 P/A Alternative and adaptive fisheries 7,00,00,000 Sea Level Rise Fisher Folk 95% Rabi Crops 15,00,00,000 P/A Barguna Amtali Adaptive plantation 50,00,000 and Cyclone Potters 65% Fish Catch in Sea/River 11,00,00,000 P/A Alternative Livelihoods 50,00,00,000 Women headed HH 100% Non-saline soil/mud 50,00,000 P/A Health Education and facilities 10,00,00,000 Children of poor income HH 60% Health 5,00,00,000 P/A + Disability friendly rural infrastructure 50,00,000 Disable people in poor income HH 85% Mobility of PWD 10,00,000 P/A 65% Income 20,00,00,000 P/A

10% Aman 9,54,45,000 P/A Establish deep tubewell 3,00,00,000 Midium and Marginal Farmers 20% Boro 12,41,10,000 P/A Excavation of medium pond 50,00,000 Agri-labourers 40% Aus 6,07,82,400 P/A Digging canel connecting to Punarvaba river 100,00,00,000 Ethnic Minorities ( Santal, Mal Paharia, 40% Wheat 2,56,59,200 P/A Eshtablish Health Complex 60,00,000 Oraon ) 5% Masturd 26,77,500 P/A Droughts Naogaon Porsha Digging Ring-well 4,50,00,000 Landless 60% Mango 8,82,00,000 P/A Livestock- sheep, goat, cow rearing 1,50,00,000 Women headed households 10% Health 70,00,000 P/A Training on tailoring and machine 2,75,00,000 Disable people in poor income HH 20% Livestock 1,50,00,000 P/A Training on livestock farming 5,00,00,000 Children in poor income HH 40% Income 14,23,65,000 P/A Homestead gardening 2,00,00,000 15% Fish 1,55,25,000 P/A

5.6 Climate Change Adaptation initiatives in Bangladesh

This section will be completed after the survey of institutions working in climate change field.

5.7 Targeted CCA activities

DSK and its development partner DCA can engaze into the following adaptation strategies and activities based on the relative advantage of the organizations

A. Research on Livelihood Adaptation (agriculture, water sanitation and livelihood) of the extreme poor and vulnerable people identified in each hotspots B. Scale up the good livelihood adaptation (agriculture, water sanitation and livelihood) practices of the poor and vulnerable people in each hotspots C. Empower the local government and other local non-state actors in poor friendly climate change adaptation strategies D. Build adaptive capacity of poor and vulnerable people to cope with long term climate change impact E. Whole of community awareness and all institutions inclusive adaptation campaign at local level F. Grass root level policy advocacy for mainstreaming adaptation strategies into national, sectoral and district investment portfolio G. Establish and facilitate grassroot academy for climate change adaptation for most disadvantaged people in Bangladesh. H. Local, National and International level advocacy for ‘pro-poor friendly adaptation policies across the world’, where rights of the climate victims of Bangladesh should be uplifted and rights of climate refugee will be matured for policy action at UNFCC and post Denmark framework

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