Oaklins Food Ingredients Spot on Oct2019.Pdf
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Global trends and transactions in today’s food flavor industry SPOT ON | FOOD INGREDIENTS | OCTOBER 2019 FOOD FLAVOR AT A GLANCE (pg.2) “Studying shifts in society and consumer behavior A brief overview of the food flavor industry today which looks at key features including growth is key for companies that want to be successful. projection, customers and end markets, raw materials and the leading players worldwide. Those that can grasp these changes will certainly be able to take advantage of new opportunities SELECTED LISTED COMPANIES AND VALUATION TRENDS (pg.4) offered by the market.” A look at public companies in the food ingredients industry that have consistently outperformed the MICHELE MANETTI FTSE food producers index in recent times. This OAKLINSʼ FOOD INGREDIENTS SPECIALIST trend is expected to continue in the coming years. M&A ACTIVITY: RECENT PRIVATE TRANSACTIONS (pg.7) A focus on M&A private transactions in the food ingredients sector, with an analysis of the most relevant deals, the countries involved and transaction size ranges. MARKET OVERVIEW An ever-growing global population and new customer needs are factors that drive companies in the food & beverage industry towards consolidation. The food ingredient sector is also continuing to move in this direction, with M&A operations remaining buoyant in the first nine months of 2019. (CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE) Market overview FOOD FLAVOR AT A GLANCE Flavors market share by value (2016) Market size: The food flavors market Input costs: Raw materials typically was valued at US$12.94 billion in 2017; represent approximately 40% of flavor it is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% companiesʼ sales and fall into two 8% to reach US$17.10 billion by 2023. spheres: oil-based raw materials and 3% 19% 5% natural raw materials. While oil-based materials are widely available, the 5% Customer base: Flavors are typically market for natural raw materials has 6% sold to food and beverage producers some peculiarities. This is due mainly to 16% (e.g. Nestlé, Danone, Unilever, PepsiCo, their limited supply (some can only be 8% Mondelez, etc.). End markets include grown in certain regions and can also dairy, bakery, confectionery, savory, suffer from climatic/disease stress) and 8% 12% beverages and pharmaceuticals. the strong demand for such products 10% (as a result of an increased appetite for natural ingredients). As a consequence, Givaudan Main barriers to entry: These are wide- natural raw material prices can IFF ranging and include R&D critical mass, experience significant volatility. Firmenich inclusion on top customer core lists, Kerry regional dominance, global presence, Symrise access to raw materials, increased Small impact on COGS, a big influence Wild Flavors regulatory environment, ability to offer on end consumers: Food flavors Takasago Sensient full product traceability and, to a lesser represent a tiny proportion of the Mane Fils extent, integration with customer ERP end product COGS, usually 0.3–2%. T. Hasegawa systems. However, these ingredients exert Others significant influence on end consumer repurchase decisions. Source: DB OAKLINS – Spot On · Food Ingredients · October 2019 2 Market overview MEGATRENDS AFFECTING THE FLAVORS INDUSTRY Global megatrends and their main impacts on the flavors industry A growing …living longer and …in an increasingly customer more responsible interconnected base… lives... world IMPLICATIONS ͽ Growing population and wealth ͽ Aging population ͽ Interconnectivity and faster in high-growth markets ͽ Being overweight or obese exchange of information ͽ Shift from rural to urban areas more widespread ͽ Social media transports new ͽ Increased disposable incomes ͽ Consumers demanding trends faster and wider transparency IMPACTS ON FLAVORS SECTOR ͽ Rise in spending on processed ͽ Demand for tasty products ͽ Increased consumer and ready-made foods with with reduced fat, sugar and salt empowerment increase in disposable income content ͽ Reduced time-to-market for new ͽ Local and regional brands gaining ͽ Increased focus on organic, products relevance natural ingredients, natural flavors ͽ Increased demand for convenience food Source: Givaudan annual report OAKLINS – Spot On · Food Ingredients · October 2019 3 Selected listed companies Between February and September 2019, the average adjusted capitalization of the 38 companies listed below grew from US$4.849m to US$5.041m. In terms of multiples, in February 2019 the adjusted average of the EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales multiples of food ingredients (FI) listed companies stood at 13.5x and 2.2x respectively, while in September 2019 the EV/EBITDA and EV/ Sales market multiples of FI listed companies (adjusted average) were 13.1x and 2.3x. Market cap EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Company Country (US$m) (US$m) (US$m) Givaudan S.A. 25,705 4.8x 25.2x Associated British Foods plc 22,804 1.1x 8.9x McCormick & Company, Incorporated 21,232 4.7x 23.3x Koninklijke DSM N.V. 20,242 2.0x 12.6x Kerry Group plc 20,234 2.9x 20.4x Symrise AG 13,091 3.9x 19.4x International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. 12,831 3.7x 16.9x Novozymes A/S 12,132 5.8x 16.6x Solvay S.A. 10,902 1.2x 6.4x Chr. Hansen Holding A/S 11,061 9.2x 27.1x Ingredion Incorporated 5,476 1.3x 8.0x AAK AB (publ.) 4,817 1.7x 18.3x Tate & Lyle plc 4,318 1.3x 8.1x Glanbia plc 3,702 1.5x 13.3x Angel Yeast Co., Ltd. 3,246 3.6x 17.2x Sensient Technologies Corporation 2,915 2.6x 14.5x MeiHua Holdings Group Co., Ltd. 1,890 1.3x 6.1x Corbion N.V. 1,690 1.9x 13.7x OAKLINS – Spot On · Food Ingredients · October 2019 4 Selected listed companies Market cap EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Company Country (US$m) (US$m) (US$m) Robertet S.A. 1,715 2.9x 17.7x Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co., Ltd. 1,595 2.4x 9.0x AGRANA Beteiligungs-AG 1,152 0.6x 10.7x T. Hasegawa Co., Ltd. 806 1.4x 7.9x Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients Corp. 621 7.4x 51.8x ChenGuang Biotech Group Co., Ltd. 486 1.2x 14.7x Takasago International Corporation 504 0.6x 8.5x Nantong Acetic Acid Chemical Co., Ltd. 501 1.4x 10.2x Qianjiang Yongan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. 371 1.9x 10.6x Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co., Ltd. 367 0.7x 10.7x S H Kelkar and Company Limited 263 2.0x 11.5x EnWave Corporation 172 6.0x N/A Camlin Fine Sciences Ltd. 103 1.2x 13.0x Changmao Biochemical Engineering Company Limited 54 0.4x 2.3x Allied Biotech Corporation 55 2.2x 8.2x Vidhi Specialty Food Ingredients Limited 43 1.4x 6.8x Rolfes Holdings Limited 30 0.4x 7.6x Sojaprotein a.d. 22 0.9x N/A Dynemic Products Limited 19 1.0x 5.5x Vipul Organics Ltd. 14 1.2x 16.3x Adj. average (without max or min) 5,041 2.3x 13.1x Average 5,452 2.4x 13.9x Median 1,642 1.6x 12.1x Source: Capital IQ, Data in US$m as of 09/09/2019 OAKLINS – Spot On · Food Ingredients · October 2019 5 Valuation trends Oaklins’ food ingredients specialists have created a custom food ingredients index, composed of 38 selected listed companies active in the FI industry (see above section, Selected listed companies). Over the past three years, these FI companies have outperformed traditional food and beverage manufacturers, represented by the FTSE All-World Food Producers index – see the graph below. In addition, there are two further graphs, one referring to EV/Sales and the other to the EV/EBITDA multiple, which represent trends in the food ingredients sector during the last three years. Custom Food Ingredients index VS. FTSE All-World Food Producers index 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 30-Sep-16 31-Jan-17 31-May-17 30-Sep-17 31-Jan-18 31-May-18 30-Sep-18 31-Jan-19 31-May-19 10-Sep-19 FTSE All-World Food Producers Index Value FI Index Value EV/Sales Multiples – Food Ingredients index 2.50x 2.40x 2.30x FTSE All - World Index - Food FI - Index Dates Producers - Index Value Value 2.20x 30-Sep-16 0,00 0,00 2.10x 31-Oct-16 -3,51 -6,74 30-Nov-16 -6,29 -10,23 2.00x 30-Sep-16 31-Jan-17 31-Dec-1631-May-17 30-Sep-17 31-Jan-18 31-May-18 0,1830-Sep-18 -8,1731-Jan-19 31-May-19 10-Sep-19 31-Jan-17 -9,27 -8,49 28-Feb-17 -1,70 -5,18 EV/EBITDA Multiples – Food31-Mar-17 Ingredients index -1,27 -3,24 30-Apr-17 2,55 1,90 15.00x 31-May-17 7,48 5,03 30-Jun-17 3,88 4,07 14.00x 31-Jul-17 3,94 6,48 31-Aug-17 11,26 9,98 13.00x 30-Sep-17 FI - Inde 7,68 13,27 Dates Value 12.00x 31-Oct-17 10,94 16,24 30-Nov-17!"#$%&#'( )*)+ 4,55 17,11 !'#.-.#'( )*'" 11.00x 31-Dec-17 4,10 18,25 30-Sep-16 31-Jan-17 31-Jan-18!"#/31-May-1701#'( 30-Sep-17)*"" 31-Jan-18 31-May-18 -1,7430-Sep-18 19,4931-Jan-19 31-May-19 10-Sep-19 28-Feb-18!'#2%-#'( )*"3 -6,80 13,82 31-Mar-18!'#456#'7 )*"3 -12,89 12,55 Source: Capital IQ, Data in US$m as of 10/09/2019 30-Apr-18)8#9%:#'7 )*'( -6,28 13,20 OAKLINS – Spot On · Food Ingredients31-May-18!'#;5<#'7 · October 2019)*)" -2,69 12,15 6 30-Jun-18!"#=&<#'7 )*)> -1,64 12,51 31-Jul-18!'#;5?#'7 )*!! -8,08 13,63 31-Aug-18!"#4@6#'7 )*!) -11,01 13,26 30-Sep-18!'#4@A#'7 )*!+ -9,54 14,73 FI - Index Dates31-Oct-18!'#=@B#'7 )*!) Value -10,09 8,64 !"#$%&#'7 )*3) !"#$%&#'(30-Nov-18 ')*'+ -8,94 8,18 !'#.-.#'7 )*33 !'#.-31-Dec-18.#'( '!*'/ -19,23 0,83 !"#/01#'7 )*!) !"#031-Jan-1912#'( ''*3+ -10,05 6,57 !'#2%-#'7 )*!+ !'#4%-#'(28-Feb-19 '+*'3 -12,37 10,36 !'#456#'8 )*!( !'#567#'831-Mar-19 '+*+! -7,39 13,76 )8#9%:#'8 )*)+ +/#30-Apr-199%:#'8 '+*8" -2,00 17,39 !'#;5<#'8 )*)) !'#;631-May-19<#'8 '!*!' -6,75 14,06 !"#=&<#'8 )*)) !"#=&30-Jun-19<#'8 ')*"+ -6,67 17,83 !'#;5?#'8 )*'7 !'#;31-Jul-196>#'8 ')*+) -7,08 15,03 !"#4@6#'8 )*'> !"#5?7#'831-Aug-19 ')*'8 -11,00 10,86 !'#4@A#'8 )*)3 !'#5?@#'810-Sep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activity During the first nine months of 2019, 54 M&A transactions were closed involving targets active in the food ingredients industry with a 2014–2018 CAGR of 6.9%.