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Special Topic 2 Household Debt in China……………………………………………… 29 I Financial Stability Analysis Group of China Financial Stability Report 2019 PBC Chair ZHU Hexin Members LU Shuchun RUAN Jianhong SUN Guofeng WANG Jingwu WANG Xin WEN Xinxiang ZHOU Xuedong ZHU Jun ZOU Lan Steering Group ZHU Hexin WANG Zhaoxing LIANG Tao LI Chao ZOU Jiayi China Financial Stability Report 2019 Contributors to This Report Chief Editors WANG Jingwu HUANG Xiaolong TAO Ling YANG Liu MENG Hui Editors YANG Liu ZHANG Tiantian Authors Executive Summary: ZHANG Tiantian SUN Yinhao Chapter I: SUN Yinhao GAO Hong LIU Ke WANG Lei WANG Yifei YANG Ying Special Topic 1: WANG Wenjing LI Chaoyang Special Topic 2: MIAO Mengmeng CHEN Wei JI Lei Special Topic 3: GUO Minhui Chapter II: WANG Shaoqun XIE Fei LIANG Shuang LIU Yao LI Guan QIU Xia Special Topic 4: ZHOU Yuan Special Topic 5: WANG Shaoqun XIE Fei Special Topic 6: XU Yue LIANG Shuang Special Topic 7: ZHANG Rong Special Topic 8: ZHANG Zhe Special Topic 9: LU Yichen LIU Tong Special Topic 10: LIU Qin MIAO Mengmeng CHEN Wei JI Lei CHEN Pan Chapter III: LIU Tong WANG Shaoqun ZHAO Bingzhe CHEN Min WANG Wenjing ZHANG Xinyi SUN Yi FENG Lei CHEN Wentao ZHANG Xuan Special Topic 11: WEI Wei Special Topic 12: YAN Shen SHAN Duo Special Topic 13: HU Ping LIU Jie WU Wenguang ZHAO Shengjiang GAN Haonan Special Topic 14: ZHANG Weihua JIA Zhe China Financial Stability Report 2019 Special Topic 15: HU Haiqiong HUANG Jiansheng Special Topic 16: OUYANG Changmin ZHANG Wan Special Topic 17: ZHANG Xinning Appendix: LI Ziyan MAO Qizheng LI Bo ZHANG Zhe XIE Fei Other Contributors CHEN Shuang LIU Xiangdong LOU Dan JI Baolin JI Jun JU Shan MA Junwei QIAN Dongping SHEN Changye WANG Dabo WANG Zunzhou WU Xiang XIONG Ying XU Junping YU Mingxing ZHOU Yubo China Financial Stability Report 2019 ① Contributors to English Edition Chief Editors WANG Jingwu YANG Liu Editor ZHANG Tiantian Translators Executive Summary: MA Hui Chapter I: MA Hui Special Topic 1: MA Hui Special Topic 2: MIAO Mengmeng Special Topic 3: LIU Tong Chapter II: LU Leilei Special Topic 4: ZHAO Bingzhe Special Topic 5: FENG Lei Special Topic 6: CHEN Song Special Topic 7: CHEN Song Special Topic 8: FENG Lei Special Topic 9: LIU Tong Special Topic 10: CHEN Wei Chapter III: LIU Tong Special Topic 11: ZHANG Tiantian Special Topic 12: LU Leilei Special Topic 13: FENG Lei Special Topic 14: CHEN Song Special Topic 15: CHEN Wei Special Topic 16: LIU Qin Special Topic 17: ZHANG Tiantian Appendix: LI Ziyan Other Contributors HU Ping LIU Zheng SHEN Changye SUN Yinhao ① This English edition is an unofficial translation of the China Financial Stability Report 2019, which was published in December 2019. In case of any discrepancies, the Chinese version shall govern. Executive Summary Since the start of 2018, the Chinese economy and the financial development has faced increasing external challenges, as the global economic and political landscape underwent significant adjustment. Against this backdrop, the financial sector has always stuck to the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability and the requirement of promoting high- quality development, effectively implemented macroeconomic policies and strengthened financial services to the real economy by overcoming difficulties and working diligently. As a result, the financial order has improved, financial reform and opening-up has made progress, the critical battle against major financial risks has witnessed a good start, and therefore the financial sector contributed positively to the sustained and healthy development of the economy and social stability. In 2018, China’s GDP grew by 6.6 percent year on year, one of the top performers among the major economies. The employment kept stable, inflation remained generally modest, the balance of payments was in equilibrium, and the size of the foreign exchange reserves was basically stable. In the context of rising uncertainties in the global economic recovery, the steady performance of the Chinese economy is commendable, which not only lays a solid foundation for achieving the first centenary goal of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, but also remains an important force driving the global economic growth. Recognizing our achievements, we are also keenly aware that, affected by various factors at home and abroad, some accumulated deep-rooted problems in the Chinese economy have come to the fore, which might trigger financial risks easily and frequently, and increase economic difficulties. From a global standpoint, the probability of a global economic slowdown after a period of recovery has increased, unilateralism and trade protectionism have been on the rise worldwide, the financial markets are highly sensitive to developments of trade relations, and uncertainties of the global liquidity have gone up. On the domestic front, financial risks have evolved with new characteristics. New risks of problem institutions and illegal financial activities have been contained effectively, whereas the accumulated risks need to be further resolved. The financial markets are prone to external shocks, and the risks of exceptional market volatility cannot be ignored. To effectively prevent and dissolve risks, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have made important overall arrangements to win the critical battle against major financial risks, and have outlined the principles of “maintaining overall stability, proceeding in a coordinated manner, adopting differentiated policies, and addressing risks in a targeted and calibrated way”. In the past one year, the People’s Bank of China (PBC), under the leadership of the Financial Stability and Development Committee (FSDC) of the State Council, worked with other related government agencies and deployed differentiated policies to address in a well-targeted and timely manner key risks that threaten financial stability. It took active measures to gradually resolve persistent potential risks to achieve “slow release of air and soft landing”. In light of institutional deficiencies, the PBC continuously advanced regulatory reforms to overcome shortcomings. It also strengthened day-to-day risk monitoring and assessment and made plans to deal with various risks, such as “black swan” and “grey rhinoceros” events that might happen in the future. In the meantime, in the process of addressing and resolving risks, efforts were made to manage well the pace and intensity of policies, make preemptive adjustments and fine-tunings when appropriate, and avoid “risks arising from risk resolution”, so as to effectively ensure stable functioning of the financial markets and financial institutions. We have made headways in forestalling and addressing financial risks through a raft of intensive measures over the past year. Firstly, the macro leverage ratio has been put under control. Measures such as managing well monetary supply on the macro level, as well as promoting corporate deleveraging, curbing rapid growth of the leverage of the household sector and actively resolving implicit liabilities of local governments on the micro level have preliminarily contained the rapid growth momentum of the macro leverage ratio. Secondly, high-risk institutions were handled in a proper and orderly manner. The PBC decisively took over the Baoshang Bank in line with relevant laws and regulations to maximally protect the legitimate rights and interests of depositors and other clients, broke the expectation of implicit guarantee and strengthened market discipline. The timely takeover “stopped bleeding”, and averted further deterioration of risks. The process went smoothly, and there were no mass events such as a bank run. Thirdly, the financial order was forcefully rectified. Efforts were made to earnestly conduct the special campaign against risks of Internet finance, continue to severely crack down on illicit fund-raising activities, and steadily identify and rectify problems in various exchanges, so as to reduce existing risks in an appropriate and well-paced manner. Fourthly, risks of financial market volatility were addressed. Multiple policy instruments were deployed to increase liquidity supply to effectively smooth out short-term volatilities, and dissolve the partial and structural liquidity risks of small- and medium-sized banks. Measures were taken to deal with bond defaults in an orderly manner, and to steadily resolve risks associated with stock pledging. The PBC also effectively responded to shocks from cross-border capital flows and maintained the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level. Fifthly, regulatory shortcomings were addressed. New regulations governing asset management and the related details for implementation were introduced to rectify market chaos. As a result, shadow banking risks were well contained. The PBC improved the financial regulatory framework by announcing guidelines on regulation of systemically important financial institutions and developing the tentative measures for regulation of financial holding companies. In general, the rapid accumulation of financial risks over the past few years has been gradually released, and the explicit financial risks have been addressed in an orderly way. The financial markets have fared well, with an improved financial regulatory framework and no occurrence of systemic financial risks. Going forward, latent risks cannot be eliminated within a short period of time, as the sources of disruption and risks are increasing globally, and downward pressures are mounting on the domestic economy. Nevertheless, the Chinese economy remains resilient, with a high household savings
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