Implementation of Integration Problem for Baltic Energy Systems into Continental Europe Energy
Anatolijs Mahnitko1 , Professor Timur Kuznecovs2 , Dr.ing.sc. Leading specialist Tatjana Lomane1 , Asoc. Professor Jurijs Siliņēvičs2 , M.sc.ing Inga Zicmane1 , Professor 2 High Voltage Department, Darzciema Str. 86, 1 Riga Technical University, Riga, Latvia Riga, Latvia [email protected], [email protected] [email protected], [email protected] [email protected]
Abstract— With the restoration of the Baltic States economic independence was focused on strengthening and independence, they faced problems both of a political and developing the energy sector, which is the basis for the economic nature. First of all, these problems were caused by the development of all other sectors of the economy. need to strengthen the energy independence of the Baltic States, since historically its power systems worked in synchronous mode The energy sector of the Baltic States has undergone many with the United power system of Russia, depending on its mode significant changes over the past decade. In a relatively short of operation. It was the Baltic States ' desire to eliminate energy period, from the closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant, dependence on a single energy supplier that determined their which changed the balance of base capacity in the Baltic desire to integrate their transmission networks into the electrical region in a competitive market - from a large producer and system of continental Europe. The solution to this problem exporter of electricity, Lithuania has become the largest allows the Baltic States to strengthen their energy independence importer. Electricity generation in Estonia will not meet its and become a full participant in the electricity market of electricity needs in the near future. Latvia, in accordance with continental Europe. Aspects of integration of the Baltic power its base capacity, is able to make a correct and far-sighted systems with the power systems of continental Europe are decision, but it alone is not able to bear the increased pressure considered. There are made the analysis of the current state and of the base capacity deficit on its own shoulders. This problem development of the infrastructure for the Baltic States electric must be solved by all the Baltic States together. systems, the development of electricity trade between the Baltic States and continental Europe, the problems of shortage and The Baltic States need to think about how to compensate increase of base capacity in the region. The characteristics of the for the lack of basic capacity, which will affect both the energy and climate national plans published by the Baltic States electricity produced for a competitive market and the are given, which consider their intentions to develop renewable reliability of the region's electricity supply after the change in energy production for the period up to 2030, which provide for a 2025 of the synchronization zone of the Baltic countries ' significant increase in electricity production due to wind farms. power systems. The national energy and climate plans The possibilities of reducing the risks of power supply reliability published by the Baltic States for the period up to 2030 to consumers when there is insufficient balance of supply and provide for a significant increase in the share of electricity demand to maintain the power balance are considered. production from renewable energy resources. This means that Index Terms-- Electric networks, Integration, Synchronization, the Baltic energy systems should expect the development of Infrastructure, Electricity market the generating capacity using wind, solar and other distributed sources, and, consequently, the necessary increase in balancing power. The analysis of the aspects of integration of I. INTRODUCTION the Baltic power systems with the power systems of Historically, the Baltic power systems have operated in continental Europe and the convergence of the EU power synchronous mode with the United power system of Russia, markets is made on the basis of official sources published which in terms of electricity consumption is about 40 times recently [1 - 20 ]. greater than the Baltic power consumption. Parallel synchronous operation of the Baltic power systems with such II. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CURRENT a powerful unified power system of Russia provided reliable SITUATION IN THE BALTIC STATES power supply to consumers with high-quality electricity. The restoration of independence and the accession of the Baltic A. Electrisity production States to the European Union (EU) in 2004 set them a number In recent years, the structure of electricity production in of tasks for changes and reforms, both in political and the Baltic States has not changed rapidly, but there is clear a economic directions. Special attention in strengthening stable trend of increasing production from renewable energy
This research is funded by the Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Latvia, project “Innovative smart grid technologies and their optimization (INGRIDO)”, project No. VPP-EM-INFRA-2018/1-0006.l
978-1-7281-9510-0/20/$31.00 ©2020 IEEE resources and decreasing production from fossil energy to integrate the electricity markets of their countries into the resources. Electricity consumption was stable with a slight electricity market of the United Europe. In order to ensure upward trend. For example, over the past five years, electricity integration with the European power grid, the Baltic TSOs consumption in Estonia has increased by 7 % and in Latvia by have been considering various integration projects over the 2%. The data published in Lithuania for this period show a 26 past 10 years. The success of integration is the best evidenced % increase in consumption, and most of this increase in by the activity of the electricity market. So, for example, if in consumption since 2017 was created due to a change in the 2014 the available intersystem power reached 800 MW, then method of accounting for consumption, when consumption in 2018 this power on average reached the level of 1900 MW includes consumption of hydro accumulating power plant [4]. Baltic market participants have become more active in Kronio in pump mode. In recent years, the Baltic States have using European electricity markets. If in 2014 the volume of produced about 80 % of their electricity, of which about 60% electricity trade between the Baltic States and Europe was 3.5 is generated by burning fossil fuels (mainly coal and natural TWh, in 2018 it was approximately 8.7 TWh (Fig.2). gas), and 40% is generated from renewable energy resources (mainly hydro and wind). For 2017 and 2018 years, electricity Finland generation from renewable energy resources has reached its 1.55 TWh historically highest volumes (exceeding 10 TWh and 8 TWh, respectively). The specific weight of electricity production from renewable sources in the Baltic energy systems, as well as in the EU, is constantly increasing (Fig.1), what follows from official sources [8]. production consumption
3.52 TWh
70%
65%
60% Non-renewables
55% • production consumption 50% 2.44 TWh
45% Sweden
40% Renewables 2.71 TWh
Belorusia 35%
2.56 TWh Kaliningrad 30% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201 7 2018 2.94 TWh production consumption
Poland Figure 1. The specific weight of generated capacity from renewable and 0.91 TWh non renewable energy resources in the territory of ENTSO-E member countries.
B. Electrisity market Figure 2. Electricity generation, consumption and total commercial flows of electricity by the Baltic States in 2018. As is known [4], the total annual electricity consumption of all EU countries exceeds 3000 TWh. At the same time, the This indicates that, both in the case of a shortage and an total electricity consumption of the Scandinavian countries is excess of electricity, Baltic market participants had access to approximately 400 TWh per year. The total electricity a wide, diversified and competitive market in order to carry consumption of the Baltic States ranges from 25 TWh per out transactions at economically reasonable prices. One of the year. A visual comparison of the above electricity most important indicators of the level (degree) of integration consumption indicators shows that the Baltic power systems of the Baltic electricity market is the convergence with the are relatively small power systems. However, over the past prices of neighboring regions (Fig.3). This has been five years, electricity trade between the Baltic States and particularly evident since 2016, when the NordBalt Europe has grown by 250 %. Fig.2 shows the scheme of (Lithuania-Sweden) and LitPol (Lithuania –Poland) generation, consumption and commercial flows of electricity interconnections were put into operation. At this time, in the Baltic States. electricity prices have come closer, both for the Baltic States, Certain factors in small power systems, including and for the Baltic region and the Scandinavian countries in reliability of power supply, competition between producers, general. Back in 2014, the average spot price difference and power supply costs, are particularly dependent on between Latvia and Estonia was 12.5 EUR/MWh, and in opportunities for external interstate electricity trade. 2018 it decreased by more than five times and reached 2.3 Therefore, the main strategy of the Baltic transmission system EUR/MWh. A similar trend is also observed in the price operators (TSO) to ensure a stable and economically dynamics of the Baltic and Scandinavian markets. Back in affordable electricity supply to consumers for the long term is 2014, the average spot price difference in Latvia and Estonia
was 14.1 EUR/MWh, while in 2018 it decreased by more North-South direction and increased reliability of power than five times and reached 2.6 EUR/MWh (Fig. 2. and supply section between Estonia and Latvia, as well as the Fig.3.) [4]. The convergence of prices indicates increased infrastructure required for successful synchronization of the competition, since price equalization in the case of Baltic States electrical systems with the transmission competition is less dependent on the limitations of the networks of continental Europe. transmission system, which leads to an overall price reduction. D. Prospects for carbon power plants Historically, an important role in the Baltic energy sector have played thermal power plants that use oil shale as fuel extracted in Estonia. In recent years, shale power plants have produced approximately 9-10 TWh of electricity per year, or approximately half of the total generation in the Baltic States. It's power plants produced electricity independently of external energy supplies. However, the burning of shale is accompanied by a large amount of emissions into the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide CO2. In recent years, low and stable prices for CO2 emission quotas have contributed to stable electricity production from shale power plants. However, at the beginning of 2019, the price of quotas for CO2 emissions exceeded 20 EUR per ton, and in June reached 29 EUR. As a result, the production of electricity by shale power plants has significantly decreased, since the price of electricity produced by them has become uncompetitive in
the electricity market, which makes the operation of these Figure 3. Restrictions on power transmission at the Estonia-Latvia border power plants unprofitable. In July 2019, the national energy and the resulting difference in electricity prices on the Nord Pool exchange. company Eesti Energia reported that, for the first time in the company's history, on June 28, shale power stations did not C. Capacity of cross-system connections produce electricity for eight hours. If in January 2019, during the peak hours of consumption, electricity production by In the coming years, the capacity of cross-system Narva power plants reached 1900 MW, in June, generation connections between the Baltic States and European power fluctuated in the range of 50 – 200 MW. In the first 10 systems may be increased by another 50 %. Currently, the months of 2019, 517 GWh of electricity was produced in Baltic States have four DC interconnections with European Estonia, which is 41% less than in the same period of 2018. power systems with a total capacity of 2,200 MW (Fig.2). For the Baltic States in General, over the same period, the This is a direct current line in Lithuania connected to volume of electricity production decreased by 22 %. It should Poland by a double-chain 400 kV AC line, a communication be expected that, taking into account the EU's climate line between Lithuania and Sweden, and two communication protection policy and the expansion of electricity generation lines between Finland and Estonia. from renewable energy resources, the operation of shale power plants in Estonia should be stopped due to their This is a lot, if we take into account that the total average unprofitability of their modernization [4, 7]. consumption of the Baltic power systems is 2900 MW, and the winter maximum is approximately 4500 MW. Therefore, E. Production of regulated power the Baltic integration process will continue actively until 2025, when it is planned to complete the connection of the In recent years, the installed capacity of the Baltic power Baltic power systems to work synchronously with the plants has been relatively stable and currently exceeds 9000 transmission system of continental Europe and implement MW, which is approximately twice the maximum of the some other projects for the development of intersystem Baltic peak consumption. Over the past five years, the connections. On the border between Estonia and Latvia, two installed capacity of gas – fired power plants has decreased 330 kV transmission lines are being reconstructed and by 25 % (or approximately 1000 MW), mainly due to the strengthened, which run from the Valmiera substation (Latvia closure of gas units in Lithuania. In turn, a significant ) to Tartu and Tsirgulina (Estonia ). A third link is also being increase in production capacity was provided by the built between the Riga TPP-2 and Kilingi-Nemmi in Estonia commissioned wind and biomass plants (with a total installed (see Table.1), as a result of which the capacity of interstate capacity of approximately 600 MW), as well as the new 300 power lines on the Estonia - Latvia border will increase by MW capacity of the Auveres shale power plant (Estonia), about 600 MW [4]. These projects are necessary to increase commissioned in 2015 [8]. It is expected that the capacity of the transmission capacity of existing transmission lines large centralized power plants in the Baltic States will between Estonia and Latvia and will ensure the integration of continue to decrease in the coming years, mainly due to a the Baltic electricity markets with the common European reduction in the generation of uncompetitive old CHP units in electricity market. Will create a relatively strong transit Estonia and Lithuania. At the same time, thanks mainly to the corridor through the energy system of the Baltic States in the development of wind farms, it is expected that the total installed capacity for electricity generation in the Baltic
States will increase. Taking into account the national energy increase in demand for balancing power is due to the and climate plans published by the Baltic States [1-3], which introduction of electricity markets , when for the first time set out the intentions for the development of renewable there were increases in power fluctuations due to the electricity generation for the period up to 2030, it can be variability of power flows of interstate electricity trade. TSO concluded that the use of renewable energy resources in the could not influence the direction of power flows, since these Baltic States by 2030 will achieve electricity production of at flows were directed from regions with a low price for least 13 TWh per year , which is 5 TWh per year more than in electricity to a region with a higher price, which is naturally 2018 and corresponds to at least 40% of electricity explained by the principles of the market. consumption in the Baltic States. At the same time, it is expected that the new production capacity of generating TABLE I. ACTION PLAN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BALTIC sources will mostly be provided by the development of the TRANSMISSION NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE wind farm [1-3, 5-9, 14-18 ].
HVTL HVTL HVTL HVTL HVTL F. Reliable of power supply to consumers Ventspils Riga Latvia Valmera Valmera PSO regularly assess the reliability of the electrical - Tume- TPP-2 - - (Latvia)- (Latvia)- networks (systems) of the Baltic States and the adequacy of Imanta Riga Estoni Tartu Tsirgulin HPS a (Estonia) a power in the region. PSO considers various new development (Estonia) scenarios in order to have a real idea of how to balance power Year of 2019 2020 2020 2023 2024 generation and demand in the coming years, as well as assess Construc the risks of power supply reliability. According to PSO, the tion maximum load of the Baltic region can be covered by local Total 127 19 84 23 22 production capacity (without imports via intersystem Cost mill. connections from neighboring power systems) until 2020. EUR After 2020, the sufficient power supply capacity of the EU Co- 45 50 65 75 75 financin Baltic States will depend on imports from neighboring power g, ‰ systems. The capacity reserve suitable for covering the peak Length 213 13 176 49 49 load will be significantly reduced after 2025, when the Baltic of Line, transmission system is disconnected from the BRELL km (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) ring of power systems and begins to work synchronously with the power Over the past 6-8 years, when the rapid development of systems of continental Europe. In turn, after 2030, the wind and solar power plants began, TSO faced a second generation and import of power by the Baltic power systems increase in fluctuations in the power balance. We should will no longer be sufficient to cover the peak load of the expect that in the future, these fluctuations may become even normal regime of the Baltic States when the power deficit more acute if we take into account the prospects for the reaches 360 MW. PSO developed scenarios for the development of distributed sources of generated power (Fig. development of generated capacity for new resource 4) with an unpredictable mode of electricity production. development and balancing the deficit in the Baltic region, in order to ensure the reliability of electricity supply and not to deteriorate the quality. A more detailed (message ) PSO for 2018 can be found on the home page of JSC "AT" [19, 20].
III. MAIN DIRECTIONS FOR COMPLETINS THE INTEGRATION STRATEGY The main directions for implementing the process of integration of the Baltic power systems with the power systems of continental Europe can be considered the development of the infrastructure of the transmission electric networks (TSO) of the Baltic States and their sources of generating capacity. According to official information of JSC "AT" one of the evidence of completion of the preparatory work for the integration of Baltic power systems with Figure 4. Forecast of installed power generation capacity in Baltic States continental Europe power systems can be considered the implementation of measures for reconstruction The commissioning of a significant number of wind (modernization) and the development of infrastructure for the installations has significantly complicated the management of Baltic States electricity grids. The list of these activities is power systems due to the problems of forecasting the state of given in Table I [20]. Regarding power generation in the power systems associated with the unpredictability of Baltic power systems, it can be noted that the need to increase electricity production of newly appeared distributed energy it is caused primarily by the increased demand for sources. As a result, there was an increased need for maintaining the power balance in the power systems. The additional balancing power that could be used to control the
power system. At the same time, it should be taken into 5. The practical implementation of the national energy and account that the Baltic power transmission system is currently climate plans developed by the Baltic States, which consider integrated into the BRELL unified power system, where the the intention to develop electricity production from renewable frequency in the electric network is centrally regulated from energy resources for the period up to 2030 through the Russia. In connection with the Baltic plan to switch its expansion of wind farms, is possible only with the use of new transmission networks to synchronous operation with the technologies (smart grids, energy storage, consumption transmission networks of continental Europe by 2025 , the management, etc.). Without the use of these technologies and Baltic TSO will need to be able to independently participate sufficient reserves of generating capacity, the risks of a in frequency regulation both in normal conditions and in shortage of capacity for reliable power supply to consumers unforeseen cases after emergency shutdowns of large will increase, which will have a negative impact on the generators or intersystem power lines. Therefore, the Baltic electricity trading markets. TSO will have to contain the frequency regulation and balancing reserves, which provide for synchronous activity REFERENCES agreements with the TSO of continental Europe. In Table II [1] https://elering.ee./sites/default/files/attachments/Review_of_RES the information about the Baltic TSO's obligations after the _perspective_in_Baltic_countries_till_2030.pdf synchronization zone changes in 2025 is provided. [2] https://www.mkm.ee/sites/default/files/ndpes_2030_eng.pdf [3] https://vasab.org/wp-content/upload/2019/Baltic-LINes-2030- TABLE II. INDICATORS OF REQUIRED RESERVES FOR THE BALTIC TSO and-2050-Baltic-Sea-Energy-Scenarios.pdf AFTER SYNCHRONIZATION WITH CONTINENTAL EUROPE IN 2025 [4] G. Junghāns, A. Ļvovs, A. Silis, " Transnational trading capacity has significantly increased in the electricity transmission *Type Baltic Latvia Lithuania Estonia network," The magazine "Energy and the World, Nr. 1 (114), pp. of 30.-34., 2019. reserve FCR 30 MW 11 MW 12 MW 7 MW [5] G. Junghāns, I. Talvāne, " Clean energy package – how the electricity industry will change," The magazine "Energy and the aFFR 100 MW 23 MW 45 MW 32 MW World, Nr. 3 (116), pp. 14.-16., 2019. higher aFRR 100 MW 23 MW 45 MW 32 MW [6] A. Akermanis, "Winds will be! " The magazine "Energy and the lower World, Nr. 1 (114), pp. 54 - 57., 2019. mFRR 600 MW 148 MW 234 MW 218 MW [7] R. Nemiro, " The future of Latvian energy needs to be higher considered today.," The magazine "Energy and the World, Nr. 6 mFRR 600 MW 21 MW 300 MW 279 MW (119), pp. 18.-23., 2019. lower [8] G. Junghāns, A. Silis, " The risk of a shortage of electricity *FCR – freguency containment rezerve; aFFR – automated freguency supply capacity will increase in the future.," The magazine testaration rezerve; mFRR – manual freguency restaration rezerve. "Energy and the World, Nr. 6 (119), pp. 24.-27., 2019. [9] S. Ulreihs, H. V. Šifers, " Prospects for the development of IV. CONCLUTIONS electricity production in Europe.," The magazine "Energy and the World, Nr. 6 (119), pp. 28.-37., 2019. 1. In order to integrate with the power systems of [10] I. Stuklis, L. Jansons, "Integration of the Baltic region in the continental Europe, the Baltic countries have implemented energy systems of the European Union," The magazine "Energy many projects to develop the infrastructure of their electrical and the World, Nr. 4 (87), pp. 32.-35., 2014. systems (interstate electrical connections, modernization and [11] J. Grevstadis, " Norway is the most energy -rich country in the reconstruction of equipment for large power plants). Baltic and Scandinavian regions," The magazine "Energy and the World, Nr. 4 (87), pp. 42.-45., 2014. 2. The implementation of the Baltic TSO strategy to [12] G. Junghāns, L. Sadoviča, " Elasticity of consumption is ensure a stable and economically affordable electricity supply encouraged in the energy system," The magazine "Energy and to consumers in the long term is possible only if the Baltic the World, Nr. 2 (103), pp. 28.-32., 2017. electricity markets are integrated into the electricity market of [13] L. Jansons, " Support for green energy in Europe: how and continental Europe. why?," The magazine "Energy and the World, Nr. 3 (116), pp. 19.-25., 2019. 3. The Baltic States need to think about how to [14] Bompard, Ettore, et al. "Baltic power systems’ integration into compensate for the lack of basic capacity after the transition the EU market coupling under different desynchronization of the Baltic transmission networks to synchronous operation schemes: A comparative market analysis." Energies 11.8 (2018). with the power networks of continental Europe in 2025, [15] Radziukynas, Virginijus, et al. "Challenges for the Baltic Power System connecting synchronously to Continental European which is one of the strategic priorities of the EU energy Network." Electric Power Systems Research 140 (2016): 54-64. policy. [16] Directive (EU) 2018/2001 4. The main directions that can ensure sufficient power [17] Directive (EU) 2018/2002 supply capacity and maintain balance in the Baltic energy [18] Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 systems should be both the further development of generating [19] https://docstore.entsoe.eu/Documents/Publication/Position%20pa capacities and increased investment in the development of pers%20and%reports/ENTSOs%20- electric networks necessary to connect large amounts of %20Interlinkages%20Focus%20Study%20- %20Final%20report.pdf capacity from renewable energy sources. [20] https://www.ast.lv/lv/content/parvades-sistemas-operatora- novertejuma-zinojumi