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Renewable Energy in Europe — 2020 Recent Growth and Knock-On Effects

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Renewable Energy in Europe — 2020 Recent Growth and Knock-On Effects Eionet Report - ETC/CME 7/2020 - December 2020 Renewable energy in Europe — 2020 Recent growth and knock-on effects Authors: Merce Almuni (VITO), Tom Dauwe (VITO), Ils Moorkens (VITO), Risto Juhana Saarikivi (CHMI) and Mihai Tomescu (EEA) ETC/CME consortium partners: AETHER, Interprofessional Technical Centre for Studies on Air Pollution (CITEPA), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Energy and Environmental Studies and Software Development (EMISIA), Institute for Applied Ecology (ÖKO-INSTITUT), ÖKO-RECHERCHE, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Environment Agency Austria (UBA), Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency, the European Topic Centre on Climate change mitigation and energy nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency or the Topic Centre is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. Copyright notice © European Topic Centre on Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (2020) Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). European Topic Centre on Climate change mitigation and energy Boeretang 200 B-2400 Mol, Belgium Tel.: +32 14 33 59 77 Email: [email protected] Contents 1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Background: international and European context ........................................................................ 6 1.2 About this report ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.2.1 Geographical scope.............................................................................................................. 9 1.2.2 Data sources and methodologies ........................................................................................ 9 2 Developments in renewable energy sources in Europe ......................................................................... 13 2.1 Recent progress in deployment of renewable energy sources ................................................... 13 2.1.1 Renewable energy shares at the EU level and in individual Member States .................... 13 2.1.2 Renewable electricity capacities per capita and per unit of gross domestic product ....... 15 2.2 Contributions of renewable energy sources by energy market sector and technology ............. 17 2.2.1 Contribution of renewable energy sources to various energy market sectors in Member States ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………17 2.2.2 Renewable electricity ........................................................................................................ 19 2.2.3 Renewable heating and cooling......................................................................................... 29 2.2.4 Renewable transport fuels ................................................................................................ 34 2.3 Flexibility as a solution for variable renewable energy sources .................................................. 37 2.3.1 Consequences of high penetration of wind and solar energy ........................................... 37 2.3.2 The need and costs of flexibility ........................................................................................ 38 2.3.3 Policy developments to foster flexibility ........................................................................... 40 2.3.4 How to provide flexibility? ................................................................................................. 41 2.3.5 Incentives for flexibility...................................................................................................... 42 3 Impacts on fossil fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutant emissions ............... 44 3.1 Avoided fossil fuel use ................................................................................................................. 45 3.1.1 Effects at the EU level ........................................................................................................ 45 3.1.2 Effects at the Member State level ..................................................................................... 46 3.2 Gross avoided greenhouse gas emissions ................................................................................... 48 3.2.1 Effects at the EU level ........................................................................................................ 48 3.2.2 Effects at Member State level ........................................................................................... 50 3.3 Statistical impacts of renewable energy sources on primary energy consumption ................... 52 3.3.1 Effects at EU level .............................................................................................................. 52 3.3.2 Effects at Member State level ........................................................................................... 53 3.4 Gross effect on air pollutant emissions ....................................................................................... 54 3.4.1 Effects at EU level .............................................................................................................. 54 3.4.2 Effects at Member State level ........................................................................................... 56 3.5 Indirect effects by renewable energy technology ....................................................................... 61 3.6 Country specific CO2 emission factors ........................................................................................ 65 4 EU developments in renewable energy sources in a global perspective ............................................... 68 4.1 Renewable electricity capacities by region and main source ..................................................... 69 4.1.1 Renewable electricity development by region .................................................................. 69 4.1.2 Wind and solar photovoltaic capacity deployment ........................................................... 75 4.2 Renewable energy investments .................................................................................................. 79 4.2.1 Share in global renewable energy investments................................................................. 80 4.2.2 Growth in renewable energy investments ........................................................................ 80 4.2.3 Total new investments by technology ............................................................................... 83 4.3 Renewable energy employment ................................................................................................. 85 5 Glossary and abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 87 6 References .............................................................................................................................................. 90 Annex 1 Effects of renewable energy on GHG emissions and energy consumption ............................ 94 Annex 2 Effects of renewable energy on air pollutant emissions ......................................................... 96 Annex 3 Methodology and data sources for calculating approximated RES shares ............................. 98 Annex 4 Discussion of main 2018/2019 changes by sector and country ............................................ 101 Annex 5 Methodology for the construction of country specific CO2 emission factors ...................... 109 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the European Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Climate change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME). The ETC/CME is a consortium of European institutes assisting the EEA to support European Union (EU) policy in the field of air pollution and climate change mitigation. Ils Moorkens (ETC/CME) and Mihai Tomescu (EEA) ensured the coordination of this report. The authors were, in alphabetical order, Merce Almuni (Vito), Tom Dauwe (Vito), Ils Moorkens (Vito), Risto Juhana Saarikivi (CHMI) and Mihai Tomescu (EEA). Javier Esparrago (EEA) reviewed the report. The project coordinators would like to thank Adrian Whiteman, from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), for his cooperation and for the global data sets concerning renewable energy. We also wish to thank Eurostat for allowing us to use the SHARES questionnaire templates to calculate and compile the early renewable energy sources estimates (2019 RES proxies). We are also grateful to Dr Wolfgang Schöpp and to Dr Janusz Cofala (IIASA) for the provision of the detailed GAINS data and for their help in understanding the data. The EEA and the ETC/CME would like to thank the national focal points and experts of the EEA member countries for their cooperation and support during the preparation of this report. The EEA and the ETC/CME also acknowledges the comments and suggestions received from experts from the European Commission and its Joint Research Centre
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