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Applying Climate Change Information to Hydrologic and Coastal Design of Transportation Infrastructure NCHRP Project 15‐61 Applying Climate Change Information to Hydrologic and Coastal Design of Transportation Infrastructure Final Report PREPARED FOR THE NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Roger Kilgore, Kilgore Consulting and Management, Denver, CO Wilbert O. Thomas, Jr., Michael Baker International, Cary, NC Scott Douglass and Bret Webb, South Coast Engineers, Fairhope, AL Katharine Hayhoe and Anne Stoner, Atmos Research and Consulting, Lubbock, TX Jennifer M. Jacobs, Jennifer M. Jacobs and Associates, Portsmouth, NH David B. Thompson, Thompson Hydrologics, Carson City, NV George R. Herrmann, Desert Sky Engineering and Hydrology, Lubbock, TX Ellen Douglas, Fremont, NH Chris Anderson, SkyDoc, LLC, Ames, IA March 22, 2019 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING AND MEDICINE PRIVILEGED DOCUMENT This document, not released for publication, is furnished only for review to members of or participants in the work of CRP. This document is to be regarded as fully privileged, and dissemination of the information included herein must be approved by CRP. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, and was conducted in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. DISCLAIMER This is an uncorrected draft as submitted by the contractor. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied herein are those of the contractor. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the Academies, or the program sponsors. Applying Climate Change Information to Hydrologic and Coastal Design of Transportation Infrastructure Final Report PREPARED FOR THE NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Roger Kilgore, Kilgore Consulting and Management, Denver, CO Wilbert O. Thomas, Jr., Michael Baker International, Cary, NC Scott Douglass and Bret Webb, South Coast Engineers, Fairhope, AL Katharine Hayhoe and Anne Stoner, Atmos Research and Consulting, Lubbock, TX Jennifer M. Jacobs, Jennifer M. Jacobs and Associates, Portsmouth, NH David B. Thompson, Thompson Hydrologics, Carson City, NV George R. Herrmann, Desert Sky Engineering and Hydrology, Lubbock, TX Ellen Douglas, Fremont, NH Chris Anderson, SkyDoc, LLC, Ames, IA March 22, 2019 Table of Contents CHAPTER 1. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Problem Statement .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Research Objectives and Scope ....................................................................................................... 1 1.3. What Does it Mean to Design for Climate Change? ....................................................................... 2 CHAPTER 2. RESEARCH APPROACH .................................................................................................... 1 2.1. Work Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 1 2.1.1 Phase I: Literature Review and Opportunities Assessment .................................................... 1 2.1.2 Phase II: Implementation of Study Scope ............................................................................... 1 2.2. Literature Review Summary ............................................................................................................ 2 CHAPTER 3. DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORKS .............................................................................. 1 3.1. Traditional (Top-Down) Framework ............................................................................................... 2 3.1.1 Inland Hydrology .................................................................................................................... 3 3.1.2 Coastal Applications ............................................................................................................... 3 3.2. Threshold (Bottom-Up) Framework ................................................................................................ 4 3.3. Selecting a Decision-Making Framework ....................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 4. CLIMATE MODELING OUTPUTS FOR HYDROLOGIC DESIGN ................................. 1 4.1. Terminology .................................................................................................................................... 2 4.1.1 Climate Extremes in Climate Science ..................................................................................... 2 4.1.2 Climate Extremes in Engineering ........................................................................................... 3 4.1.3 Comparing Extremes in Climate Science and Hydrologic Engineering ................................. 4 4.1.4 Detecting and Projecting Changes in Extremes ...................................................................... 5 4.2. Suitability of Climate Model Outputs ............................................................................................. 7 4.2.1 Objectives ............................................................................................................................... 7 4.2.2 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 7 4.2.3 Actionable Climate Projections for No-Regrets Hydrological Analyses ................................ 9 4.2.4 Observations ......................................................................................................................... 11 4.2.5 Climate Information: Trends and Projections ....................................................................... 14 4.2.6 Sources of Uncertainty in Future Projections ....................................................................... 19 4.2.7 Global Climate Models ......................................................................................................... 24 4.2.8 Global Climate Projections ................................................................................................... 31 4.2.9 High-Resolution Climate Projections ................................................................................... 32 4.2.10 Evaluating Climate Projections for Specific Applications .................................................. 37 4.3. Guidance for Selecting Climate Modeling Outputs ...................................................................... 39 4.3.1 Selection of Climate Inputs by Level of Analysis ................................................................ 40 4.3.2 Model Selection .................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.3 Future Scenarios – Description and Guidance ...................................................................... 47 4.4. Incorporating New High-Resolution Climate Projections into Guidance ..................................... 51 4.4.1 Future Advances in Climate Modeling ................................................................................. 52 4.4.2 WMO Climatological Standard Normal Updates and Guidance .......................................... 55 CHAPTER 5. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ADAPTATION OF PROJECTED PRECIPITATION FOR RAINFALL/RUNOFF MODELING ............................................................................................ 1 5.1. Projected 24-Hour Precipitation ...................................................................................................... 2 5.1.1. Method ................................................................................................................................... 2 5.1.2. Example ................................................................................................................................. 8 5.1.3. Applicability and Limitations .............................................................................................. 14 i 5.1.4. Discussion and Other Resources .......................................................................................... 15 5.2. Sub-Daily Precipitation/IDF Curves ............................................................................................. 21 5.2.1. General Description of IDF Relations ................................................................................. 21 5.2.2. Sub-Daily Precipitation from the Climate Science Community .......................................... 25 5.2.3. Sub-Daily Precipitation and Development of IDF Curves .................................................. 29 5.2.4. Adaptation of the Simonovic Approach to the United States .............................................. 40 5.3. Spatial Scale Compatibility ........................................................................................................... 47 5.3.1. Background and Development ............................................................................................. 48 5.3.2. Identification of Projected Point Precipitation Data ............................................................ 50 5.3.3. Application of an Areal Reduction Factor ..........................................................................
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