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A Political Risk Analysis of Botswana

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A Political Risk Analysis of Botswana A Political Risk Analysis of Botswana By Tertius M Jacobs 2012075418 Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS WITH SPECIALISATION IN POLITICAL SCIENCE in the DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL STUDIES AND GOVERNANCE FACULTY OF HUMANITIES UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE POLS 8900 Supervisor: Prof. TG Neethling BLOEMFONTEIN 2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To my family and I, this dissertation means much more than a master’s degree. It represents the final product of a University education that, at times, felt unobtainable. Throughout my years of study, there have been a plethora of obstacles that could have deprived me of this degree. However, with each obstacle I had to face, I never had to face them alone. In the first instance, I would like to show my greatest appreciation and admiration to my supervisor, Professor Theo Neethling, for supporting me throughout my honours and master’s degree. For going beyond what is expected of a supervisor and providing advice and support during trying times, I am truly grateful and honoured to have been his student. All my life there has been a group of people that have stood by me and did their utmost to support me, this group is my family. I especially want to thank my parents for their endless love and support and for always believing that we will one day reach this accomplishment. However, my family is not limited to the bloodline we share and therefore I would also like to thank those individuals outside my nuclear family who helped provide me with stepping stones that helped me scale this metaphorical mountain. I would also like to thank my wife who had to endure a multitude of troubles with me, even before being wed. She has been the ray of light that has kept me going in times when the world became too much and the final chapter too far away. Lastly, this dissertation is also the result of a lot of prayer. Therefore, I thank the Lord my Saviour for all those that have supported me, for the talents I am blessed with, and for giving me the strength to accomplish this feat despite unforgiving waters. Tertius Mynhardt Jacobs DECLARATION I, Tertius Mynhardt Jacobs, declare that the Master’s Degree research thesis that I herewith submit for the Master’s Degree qualification Specialising in Political Science at the University of the Free State is my independent work, that I have acknowledged all my sources and that I have not previously submitted it for a qualification at another institution of higher education. I further declare that I am aware that the copyright is vested in the University of the Free State. I also declare that all royalties as regards intellectual property that was developed during the course of and/or in connection with the study at the University of the Free State, will accrue to the University. Signature: _______________________ Date: 12 October 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................ ii DECLARATION .......................................................................................................... iii Table of Abbreviations ............................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1 : General introduction and orientation .................................................... 1 1.1 Problem statement and research question ....................................................... 3 1.2 Aim of the study ............................................................................................... 5 1.3 Significance of the study .................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 Political risk analysis .................................................................................... 7 1.3.2 Political risk indicators ................................................................................. 8 1.3.3 Case study: Botswana ................................................................................. 8 1.4 Methodology and outline of political risk indicators .......................................... 8 1.5 Literature review ............................................................................................ 11 1.5.1 Political risk analysis: Conceptual orientation ............................................ 11 1.5.2 A model for political risk analysis ............................................................... 12 1.5.3 Case study: Botswana ............................................................................... 12 1.6 Research outline ............................................................................................ 13 1.7 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER 2 : Concept and framework of political risk analysis ............................... 15 2.1 Defining key terminology ................................................................................ 16 2.1.1 Uncertainty and risk ................................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Political risk and country risk ...................................................................... 18 2.1.3 Political risk analysis .................................................................................. 19 2.2 Theoretical framework .................................................................................... 21 2.2.1 Obstacles to developing theory in political risk .......................................... 21 2.2.2 Theoretical framework: The theories of problem-solving, decision-making and rational choice ................................................................................................... 22 iv 2.3 Framework for analysis .................................................................................. 24 2.3.1 Venter’s (1999) synthesised model ............................................................ 24 2.3.2 Political Risk Indicators .............................................................................. 31 2.4 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 40 CHAPTER 3 : Contextualising the case of Botswana ............................................... 41 3.1 The geophysical and demographical features of Botswana ........................... 42 3.2 Background information ................................................................................. 43 3.2.1 Economy .................................................................................................... 43 3.2.2 Industry ...................................................................................................... 45 3.2.3 Politics ....................................................................................................... 46 3.3 Physical infrastructure .................................................................................... 47 3.4 Botswana’s rise to “success”: The historical context ...................................... 52 3.4.1 The pre-colonial era ................................................................................... 52 3.4.2 Colonial era ................................................................................................ 54 3.4.3 Post-colonial presidential leadership ......................................................... 56 3.5 Government structure .................................................................................... 63 3.6 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 64 CHAPTER 4 : Political risk analysis of Botswana ..................................................... 66 4.1 Political indicators .......................................................................................... 66 4.1.1 Bad neighbours .......................................................................................... 67 4.1.2 Radical religious forces .............................................................................. 68 4.1.3 Authoritarianism ......................................................................................... 72 4.1.4 Staleness, uncertain leadership succession .............................................. 75 4.1.5 War, armed insurrection, and non-constitutional changes ......................... 78 4.2 Sociopolitical indicators .................................................................................. 81 4.2.1 Ethnic/religious/racial tensions ................................................................... 82 4.2.2 Societal conflict .......................................................................................... 84 v 4.2.3 Social conditions and population dynamics ............................................... 86 4.3 Politico-economic indicators ........................................................................... 93 4.3.1 Preservation of resources .......................................................................... 93 4.3.2 Vulnerability spread ................................................................................. 102 4.3.3 Macro-economic circumstances of the host state .................................... 106 4.4 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................. 109 CHAPTER 5 : Summary, evaluation and conclusion .............................................. 111 5.1 Summary .....................................................................................................
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