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Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment

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Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Marc Weeber (DairyNZ & Deltares) Joost van den Roovaart Erwin Meijers Neeltje Goorden Daniel Tollenaar David Burger (DairyNZ) 1210754-000 © Deltares, 2016 Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Marc Weeber (DairyNZ & Deltares) Joost van den Roovaart Erwin Meijers Neeltje Goorden Daniel Tollenaar David Burger (DairyNZ) 1210754-000 © Deltares, 2016 Title Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Client Project Reference Pages DairyNZ Limited 1210754-000 1210754-000-ZWS-0006 Keywords Hauraki Plains catchment, Catchment water quality model, nitrogen and phosphorus loading, Water Framework Directive Explorer, WFLOW, FEWS, New Zealand Summary In 2014 Deltares and DairyNZ developed and applied an integrated catchment hydrological-water quality modelling approach for the Waituna catchment in Southland, New Zealand. A distributed hydrological model (WFLOW) was combined with a spatially refined water quality model (WFD Explorer) to quantify farm and catchment scale total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loading to the Waituna Lagoon. This current study builds further on the Waituna Modelling Framework to test and apply the modelling approach to a much larger and more complex catchment, the Hauraki Plains catchment in Waikato, New Zealand (area 346,000 ha). The catchment represents a significant dairying region (53% of land area) and consists of the Waihou, Piako and Waitakaruru River sub- catchments, which discharge to the Firth of Thames. A marine spatial plan is currently being developed for the Firth and wider Hauraki Gulf Marine Reserve. This precedes a future catchment water quality limit setting process which will commence in the Hauraki Catchment from 2017. As part of this process a greater understanding of catchment load sources is required. The WFLOW hydrological model was set up on a daily time step and spatial resolution of 25 by 25 m. The water balance of the catchment is strongly influenced by spring flows and the limited knowledge available to spatially and temporally parameterise these sources influenced the overall performance of the hydrological model, especially for the Waihou and Waitoa catchments. Catchment water quality was simulated using the WFD-Explorer model. Nutrient load input to the model reflected sources related to specific agricultural land-uses, background loads and point sources. Different types of land-uses, and for farms even block types, were defined in the WFD Explorer as separate emission types. Nutrient losses for Dairy farms were based on 12 model farms with other land-use values acquired from the literature whilst point source estimates were derived from empirical data from literature sources. The results suggest that model performance is good for the simulation of periodic (approximately monthly) TN load and reasonable for annual TN load. When TN prediction is compared annually between rivers, model performance for the Piako is good but other rivers poor. For TP model performance was determined to be reasonable for periodic loads and good for annual loads. Between rivers model performance for TP was good downstream and poor upstream for the Piako River, reasonable for the Ohinemuri River, and poor for all other rivers. Poor model performance in some rivers can mostly be attributed to uncertainties in simulated flows. The model was assessed against RLoadest estimates estimated from continuous flow data and monthly measurements. Access to more temporally refined water quality data, especially over high flow periods, would help improve model performance. The calibrated model framework is considered fit for purpose to be used as a management screening tool to test the likely impact of various nutrient load scenarios in the Hauraki Plains catchment. The model also provides a first overall estimate of TN and TP loading from the entire Hauraki Plains catchment, including the large areas of land situated below the current monitoring locations, to the Firth of Thames. Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Title Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment Client Project Reference Pages DairyNZ Limited 1210754-000 1210754-000-ZWS-0006 This study represents a collaboration between DairyNZ and Deltares and has been funded by DairyNZ (model application) and the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs Knowledge and Innovation Program on Delta technology (model code development). Version Date Author Initials Review Initials Approval Initials 1 December Marc Weeber and Simon Groot Sacha de Rijk 2016 Joost vd Roovaart 2 January 2017 State final Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment 1210754-000-ZWS-0006, 26 january 2017, final Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Study approach 1 1.3 TKI Matching 2 1.4 Report outline 3 2 Modelling Framework 5 2.1 Requirements 5 2.2 Selected modelling approach 5 2.3 WFLOW hydrological model 6 2.4 FEWS platform environment 7 2.5 WFD Explorer model 9 2.5.1 WFD Explorer model set up tool 9 2.6 Delta Data Viewer 11 2.7 Final model workflows 11 3 Analysis of flows and loads based on existing monitoring data 13 3.1 Introduction 13 3.2 Data availability and approach 13 3.3 Flow analysis 16 3.4 Concentration analysis 16 3.5 Load analysis 18 3.5.1 RLoadest 18 3.5.2 Periodic loading distribution 20 4 Catchment hydrological model set up, calibration and results 21 4.1 Introduction 21 4.2 Model inputs 21 4.2.1 Digital elevation data and river network 21 4.2.2 Land-use type 23 4.2.3 Soil type classification 25 4.2.4 Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration 27 4.2.5 Natural springs 30 4.3 Model parameterisation 33 4.3.1 Model coefficients 33 4.3.2 Model spatial and temporal resolution 34 4.3.3 Integration into Delft-FEWS 34 4.4 Model calibration 35 4.4.1 Calibration approach 35 4.4.2 Default model performance 36 4.4.3 Model calibration 39 4.5 Final Hydrological model results 42 4.5.1 Model validation 42 4.5.2 Waihou River 43 4.5.3 Ohinemuri River 44 4.5.4 Waitoa River 44 4.5.5 Piako River 45 Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment i 1210754-000-ZWS-0006, 26 january 2017, final 5 Catchment water quality model set up 47 5.1 Introduction 47 5.2 Land-use categories 48 5.3 Coupling of WFLOW with WFD Explorer 50 5.3.1 River schematisation 50 5.3.2 Flow transformation 50 5.4 Nutrient sources from land-use 51 5.4.1 Loads Dairy land-use 51 5.4.2 Loads non-dairy land-use 54 5.4.3 Phosphorus load from erosion 54 5.5 Point sources 55 5.5.1 Point sources 55 5.5.2 Springs 55 5.6 Model setup tool 57 5.6.1 The model setup tool 57 5.6.2 Basins 58 5.6.3 River Network 58 5.6.4 Sources 58 5.7 Calibration of the nutrient model 58 5.7.1 Calibration approach mean annual load 58 5.7.2 Attenuation 59 5.8 Periodic and annual load distribution 62 5.8.1 Anthropogenic land-use calculation 64 5.8.2 Flow-Load relationships 66 5.8.3 Karangahake : Flow-load relationship TP 69 5.8.4 Final anthropogenic land-use scaling factors 69 5.9 Validation of final model set up 70 5.9.1 Validation approach 70 5.9.2 Validation of coupled flow model schematisation 70 5.9.3 Load validation 71 5.9.4 Validation of in-stream concentrations 75 5.10 Statistical evaluation of model performance 79 5.10.1 Statistical results 80 5.10.2 Cause of model offset 83 5.11 Total loads to the Hauraki Gulf 84 6 Application of model framework to evaluate possible management scenarios 85 6.1 Introduction 85 6.2 Possibilities for scenario calculations and implementation 85 6.3 Performed scenarios 86 6.4 Testing of scenario framework 86 6.5 Scenario results 86 7 Delta Data Viewer 87 7.1 Introduction 87 7.2 Accessibility and workflow 88 7.3 Applying mitigation scenarios 88 7.4 Calculation and results 89 8 Summary and conclusions 91 8.1 Summary 91 Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment ii 1210754-000-ZWS-0006, 26 january 2017, final 8.1.1 Modelling framework 91 8.1.2 WFLOW hydrological model 92 8.1.3 Water Quality Model WFD-Explorer 92 8.1.4 Recommendations WFD- Explorer Hauraki Plains model 94 8.2 Conclusions 95 9 Acknowledgement 97 10 Literature 99 Appendices A Description of the WFLOW distributed hydrological model A-1 A.1 Introduction A-1 A.2 Model structure A-1 A.3 The snow routine A-2 A.4 Potential Evaporation A-3 A.5 Interception A-3 A.6 Soil routine A-4 A.7 The runoff response routine A-6 B Running WFLOW in Delft-FEWS B-1 C Model Setup Tool C-2 C.1 Introduction C-2 C.2 Model setup tool results C-3 C.3 Tutorial C-4 C.4 Further documentation C-9 D Analysis of flows and load D-1 D.1 Difference between years for flow D-1 D.2 Difference between years for concentration D-3 D.3 Concentration and flow relation D-7 D.4 Load analysis D-11 D.5 Modelled loads (RLoadest) D-15 D.6 Modelled loads relation to flow (RLoadest) D-19 E Validation E-1 E.1 Flow validation E-1 E.2 RLoadest load calculation technique comparison E-7 E.3 Load validation E-8 E.4 Concentration validation E-13 E.5 Model performance E-15 E.6 Cause of annual model bias E-23 F Scenario results F-1 G Land-use categorisation G-1 H WFD-Explorer loads H-1 Development of a Water Quality Modelling Framework for the Hauraki Plains Catchment iii 1210754-000-ZWS-0006, 26 january 2017, final I Phosphorus load from erosion
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