Hindsight 40 Years On: an Interview with Baruch Fischhoff
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Acceptable Risk: a Conceptual Proposal
RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002) Volume 5 Number 1 Article 3 January 1994 Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal Baruch Fischhoff Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/risk Part of the Risk Analysis Commons, Science and Technology Law Commons, and the Science and Technology Studies Commons Repository Citation Baruch Fischhoff, Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal , 5 RISK 1 (1994). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the University of New Hampshire – Franklin Pierce School of Law at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002) by an authorized editor of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal* Baruch Fischhoff** Introduction The Search for Acceptability Perhaps the most widely sought quantity in the management of hazardous technologies is the acceptable level of risk.1 Technologies whose risks fall below that level could go about their business, without worrying further about the risks that they impose on others. Riskier technologies would face closure if they could not be brought into compliance. For designers and operators, having a well-defined acceptable level of risk would provide a clear target for managing their technology. For regulators, identifying an acceptable level of risk would mean resolving value issues at the time that standards are set, allowing an agency's technical staff to monitor compliance mechanically, without having to make case-specific political and ethical decisions. For * Support for this research was provided under National Science Foundation Grant SES-8715564. -
Library of Congress Collections Policy Statements: Psychology
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS COLLECTIONS POLICY STATEMENTS ±² Collections Policy Statement Index Psychology (Classes BF and Z7201-Z7204, with some Z8000s) Contents I. Scope II. Research strengths III. Collecting Policy IV. Acquisition Sources: Current and Future V. Collecting levels I. Scope The materials on psychology covered by this statement comprise physical collections in Class BF, with corresponding subject bibliographies in Z7201-7204, and also electronic, microform, manuscript or other formats of material whose subject areas would fall into these class designations. Bibliographies on individual psychologists, in the Z8000s, are also within the scope of this statement. Materials covering psychiatry are regarded as subsets of medicine, in various subclasses of R, since psychiatrists must first acquire M.D. degrees before specializing (see the Medicine Collections Policy Statement). Various topics outside the BF areas have psychological components and are classed within their own overall subject areas, e.g.: Religious Psychology (BL53 within Religion, BL); Educational Psychology (LB1051-1091 within Theory and Practice of Education, LB); Psychohistory (D16.16 within History [General], D); Psycholinguistics (P37 within Philology and Linguistics [General], P), Industrial Psychology (HF5548 within Business Administration, HF5001-6182). Works pertaining to the psychology of individual persons, ethnic groups, or classes of persons are cataloged within those overall subjects in the LC Classification scheme, but are given the topical subdivision “–Psychology” within the Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH) scheme; for example: “Abusive men—Psychology” (often HV6626 within Social Pathology, HV; or RC569.5.F3 within Neurology and psychiatry, RC321-571); “Actors—Psychology” (often PN2058 within Dramatic Representation: The Theater, PN2000-3307); “African Americans—Psychology” (E185.625 within History: American: African American, E184.5-185.98); or “Women—Psychology” (often HQ1206 within Women: Feminism, HQ1101-2030.7). -
Ms. Scott's A.P. Psychology Summer Assignment Due on the First Day Of
Ms. Scott’s A.P. Psychology Summer Assignment due on the first day of class, August 12th. If you have any questions, please email me at [email protected]. Summer Assignment 2019-2020 “You Are Not So Smart” by David McRaney ***Note: you can order this book through amazon.com and many other resources online, but you can also ask your local libraries to get it for you. If you have trouble attaining this book, email me asap because I can assist you with this. Humans like to think that we are rational and logical beings, however decades of research in cognitive psychology has proven otherwise. The book, “You are Not so Smart” by David McRaney explores the failings of memory, how we do things without having a clue why we are doing them, and the narratives we construct and tell ourselves to make us feel better about our choices and decisions. This book is a fabulous summer read for many reasons. First of all, we will be learning about every single concept presented in the book at some point this year. Second of all, each chapter is very short and engaging. Best of all, as you read, your mind will be flooded with memories and personal experiences that connect with the concepts and stories presented in the book. After reading the entire book, please complete these two assignments: 1. There are many very important AP Psychology concepts presented in the book. Complete the attached chart where you define each concept using your own words and provide a specific example from the book or in your own life. -
Cognitive Psychology
COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY PSYCH 126 Acknowledgements College of the Canyons would like to extend appreciation to the following people and organizations for allowing this textbook to be created: California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office Chancellor Diane Van Hook Santa Clarita Community College District College of the Canyons Distance Learning Office In providing content for this textbook, the following professionals were invaluable: Mehgan Andrade, who was the major contributor and compiler of this work and Neil Walker, without whose help the book could not have been completed. Special Thank You to Trudi Radtke for editing, formatting, readability, and aesthetics. The contents of this textbook were developed under the Title V grant from the Department of Education (Award #P031S140092). However, those contents do not necessarily represent the policy of the Department of Education, and you should not assume endorsement by the Federal Government. Unless otherwise noted, the content in this textbook is licensed under CC BY 4.0 Table of Contents Psychology .................................................................................................................................................... 1 126 ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 1 - History of Cognitive Psychology ............................................................................................. 7 Definition of Cognitive Psychology -
Infographic I.10
The Digital Health Revolution: Leaving No One Behind The global AI in healthcare market is growing fast, with an expected increase from $4.9 billion in 2020 to $45.2 billion by 2026. There are new solutions introduced every day that address all areas: from clinical care and diagnosis, to remote patient monitoring to EHR support, and beyond. But, AI is still relatively new to the industry, and it can be difficult to determine which solutions can actually make a difference in care delivery and business operations. 59 Jan 2021 % of Americans believe returning Jan-June 2019 to pre-coronavirus life poses a risk to health and well being. 11 41 % % ...expect it will take at least 6 The pandemic has greatly increased the 65 months before things get number of US adults reporting depression % back to normal (updated April and/or anxiety.5 2021).4 Up to of consumers now interested in telehealth going forward. $250B 76 57% of providers view telehealth more of current US healthcare spend % favorably than they did before COVID-19.7 could potentially be virtualized.6 The dramatic increase in of Medicare primary care visits the conducted through 90% $3.5T telehealth has shown longevity, with rates in annual U.S. health expenditures are for people with chronic and mental health conditions. since April 2020 0.1 43.5 leveling off % % Most of these can be prevented by simple around 30%.8 lifestyle changes and regular health screenings9 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020 OCCAM’S RAZOR • CONJUNCTION FALLACY • DELMORE EFFECT • LAW OF TRIVIALITY • COGNITIVE FLUENCY • BELIEF BIAS • INFORMATION BIAS Digital health ecosystems are transforming• AMBIGUITY BIAS • STATUS medicineQUO BIAS • SOCIAL COMPARISONfrom BIASa rea• DECOYctive EFFECT • REACTANCEdiscipline, • REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY • SYSTEM JUSTIFICATION • BACKFIRE EFFECT • ENDOWMENT EFFECT • PROCESSING DIFFICULTY EFFECT • PSEUDOCERTAINTY EFFECT • DISPOSITION becoming precise, preventive,EFFECT • ZERO-RISK personalized, BIAS • UNIT BIAS • IKEA EFFECT and • LOSS AVERSION participatory. -
Fischhoff Vita 190914
BARUCH FISCHHOFF Howard Heinz University Professor Department of Engineering & Public Policy Institute for Politics and Strategy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 [email protected] http://www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/baruch-fischhoff.html Born: April 21, 1946, Detroit, Michigan Education 1967 B.Sc. (Mathematics, Psychology) magna cum laude, Wayne State University, 1967-1970 Kibbutz Gal-On and Kibbutz Lahav, Israel 1972 M.A. (Psychology) with distinction, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 1975 Ph.D. (Psychology), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Positions 1970-1974 Instructor, Department of Behavioral Sciences, University of the Negev 1971-1972 Research Assistant (to Daniel Kahneman), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 1973-1974 Methodological Advisor and Instructor, Paul Baerwald School of Social Work, MSW Program in Social Work Research, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 1974-1976 Research Associate, Oregon Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon 1975-1987 Visiting Assistant Professor, Dept. of Psychology, University of Oregon, 1975- 1980; Visiting Associate Professor, 1980-1987 1976-1987 Research Associate, Decision Research, a branch of Perceptronics, Eugene, Oregon 1981-1982 Visiting Scientist, Medical Research Council/Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge, England 1982-1983 Visiting Scientist, Department of Psychology, University of Stockholm 1984-1990 Research Associate, Eugene Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon 1987- Howard Heinz University Professor of Engineering and Public Policy and of Social and Decision Sciences (until 2016) and of Strategy and Politics (since 2016), Carnegie Mellon University 2014- Visiting Professor, Leeds University School of Business Selected Awards and Honors 1964-1967 Wayne State University Undergraduate Scholarship 1966-1967 NSF Undergraduate Research Grant (under Samuel Komorita) 1967 Phi Beta Kappa 1969-1974 The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Graduate Fellowships 1980 American Psychological Association Distinguished Scientific Award for Early Career Contribution to Psychology 1985 Harold D. -
Overview and History of Memory Research
M01_RADV4825_02_SE_CH01.QXD 10/16/10 10:41 AM Page 1 CHAPTER ONE OVERVIEW AND HISTORY OF MEMORY RESEARCH Memory is perhaps the most central aspect of human thought. Any question about human behavior, cognition, development, and nature requires an understanding of mem- ory. Our memory makes us who we are, and it is one of the most intimate parts of our- selves. This may be why when we get close to someone, when we want them to know who we are and we want to know who they are, there is a sharing of memories. Many feel that the study of human memory is the closest one can get to a systematic study of the human soul. The aim of this book is to provide you, the student, with a survey and guide to what is known about human memory. As with most courses, there are a number of facts and ideas to learn. However, as any good professor will tell you, the slow accu- mulation of facts is not the main point of course work. The primary aim is to provide you with a deeper understanding and appreciation of some aspect of the world—and, hopefully, yourself. I trust that the ideas presented in this book will be useful in your life after this course is completed. A SMATTERING OF DEFINITIONS Before diving into the subject matter, we need to establish some points. Specifically, we need to define how the terms memory and learning are used. The primary subject of this book is, of course, memory. So what is memory? Well, the problem, and the beauty, of this term is that it has many meanings. -
Baruch Fischhoff: the Importance of Testing Messages Why Governments Need to Test Their Messages on Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Before Disseminating Them
News Baruch Fischhoff: the importance of testing messages Why governments need to test their messages on novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) before disseminating them. Baruch Fischhoff talks to Fiona Fleck. Q: You started studying risk and human behaviour in the 1970s. What sparked Baruch Fischhoff is a psychologist and authority on that interest? the science of decision-making. His research addresses A: I majored in mathematics, with a judgment- and decision-making, with a particular focus secondary major in psychology and then on risk analysis, perception, and communication. He had the extraordinary good fortune to has authored or co-authored over 200 peer-reviewed study and work with pioneers in the field articles and co-authored or edited 11 books. He is the of decision-making, including Daniel Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Paul Slovic, of Engineering and Public Policy and the Institute for and Sarah Lichtenstein. Eventually that Courtesy of Baruch Fischhoff led to the study of the psychology be- Baruch Fischhoff Politics and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon University, in hind judgments and preferences, risk the United States of America (USA). He is also a member analysis, and risk communication. My of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine. professional entry into the field began He received a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and psychology from Wayne in the 1970s when my colleagues and I State University in 1967 and a master’s and doctorate in psychology from the were approached by technologists and Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 1972 and 1975. -
1 Embrace Your Cognitive Bias
1 Embrace Your Cognitive Bias http://blog.beaufortes.com/2007/06/embrace-your-co.html Cognitive Biases are distortions in the way humans see things in comparison to the purely logical way that mathematics, economics, and yes even project management would have us look at things. The problem is not that we have them… most of them are wired deep into our brains following millions of years of evolution. The problem is that we don’t know about them, and consequently don’t take them into account when we have to make important decisions. (This area is so important that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in 2002 for work tying non-rational decision making, and cognitive bias, to mainstream economics) People don’t behave rationally, they have emotions, they can be inspired, they have cognitive bias! Tying that into how we run projects (project leadership as a compliment to project management) can produce results you wouldn’t believe. You have to know about them to guard against them, or use them (but that’s another article)... So let’s get more specific. After the jump, let me show you a great list of cognitive biases. I’ll bet that there are at least a few that you haven’t heard of before! Decision making and behavioral biases Bandwagon effect — the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias. Bias blind spot — the tendency not to compensate for one’s own cognitive biases. Choice-supportive bias — the tendency to remember one’s choices as better than they actually were. -
An Early History of Hindsight Research
Social Cognition, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2007, pp. 10-13 FISCHHOFFEARLY HISTORY OF HINDSIGHT RESEARCH AN EARLY HISTORY OF HINDSIGHT RESEARCH Baruch Fischhoff Carnegie Mellon University The first studies of hindsight bias reflected the confluence of two desires. One arose from being part of the heady early days of Amos Tversky and Danny Kahneman’s heuristics–and–biases research program. As the para- digm evolved, the challenge for the participating graduate students was to find a heuristic to call one’s own or to find a way to elaborate one of the three “classics” (availability, representativeness, anchoring, and adjustment). Maya Bar Hillel and Ruth Beyth–Marom chose the latter route. However, I was still struggling to reconcile the political motives that had brought me to Israel, planning to live in a kibbutz for the rest of my life, with academic life—and its more realistic view of the pace of change in human affairs. For one meeting of the seminar, we read Paul Meehl’s (1973) “Why I Do Not Attend Case Conferences.” One of his many insights concerned clini- cians’ exaggerated feeling of having known all along how cases were going to turn out. To me, this sounded a lot like the exaggerated claims of under- standing political processes that permeated the political discussions to which I had long subjected myself. Those discussions often left me wonder- ing, “If we’re so prescient, why aren’t we running the world?” Psychological research provided an opportunity (and an obligation) to discipline such ob- servations with systematically collected evidence, interpreted in the context of evolving theory. -
Memory for Memory
Memory & Cognition 2001, 29 (6), 789-797 Memory for memory SUSAN JOSLYN, ELIZABETH LOFTUS, AMANDA MCNOUGHTON, and JAYME POWERS University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Participantsread short passages and 1 day later they answered questions via telephone about the pas- sages (text facts) and about the experimental session (event facts). They were telephoned again 6 weeks later and answered the same questions about text and event facts. They also answered new questions about whether they remembered the answers they had givenin the initial telephone interview (recall for prior memory performance). Although participants accurately remembered the majority of past memory successes, they were poor at remembering past memory failures. After being provided with the correct answer and tested again, the participants’ performance improved somewhat, espe- cially for memory failures. This suggests that some errors in recalling past forgetting might have been due to correctly remembering the answer previously given, but failing to realizethat it had been wrong. These findings have implications for a variety of situations in which people are queried about past memory performance. How well do people remember whether they remem- Self-evaluation of general memory abilities is presum- bered something in the past? If someone claims to have ably based on memory for past memory performance. forgotten something until recently, such as childhood Some evidence suggests that self-reported memory abil- sexual abuse (CSA), how accurate is that claim? It is im- ities are not related to scores on subsequent laboratory portant to note that this is a question not about the accu- administered memory tests. This is especially true of racy of the claim of abuse but rather about the accuracy people with memory impairments (e.g., Alzheimer’s), of the claim of forgetting. -
Association for Consumer Research
ASSOCIATION FOR CONSUMER RESEARCH Association for Consumer Research, University of Minnesota Duluth, 115 Chester Park, 31 West College Street Duluth, MN 55812 Emotion, Scientific Reasoning, and Judgments of Scientific Evidence Caitlin Drummond, University of Michigan, USA Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University, USA We examine how consumers’ ability to reason about and emotional reactions to scientific evidence relate to their judgments of it. In an online study, reasoning ability and emotional reactions to controversial research separately predicted understanding of it, judgments of its quality, and trust in the scientists who conducted it. [to cite]: Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff (2018) ,"Emotion, Scientific Reasoning, and Judgments of Scientific Evidence", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 46, eds. Andrew Gershoff, Robert Kozinets, and Tiffany White, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 115-120. [url]: http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/2412349/volumes/v46/NA-46 [copyright notice]: This work is copyrighted by The Association for Consumer Research. For permission to copy or use this work in whole or in part, please contact the Copyright Clearance Center at http://www.copyright.com/. Consuming Science: Knowledge, Acceptance, and Judgements of Scientific Information and Technology Chairs: Nicholas Light, University of Colorado Boulder, USA Philip Fernbach, University of Colorado Boulder, USA Paper #1: A Taxonomy of Opposition to Genetically Modified naturalness, or acceptability in Christian doctrine. These findings Foods suggest that attitudes are based on the moralization of GM foods. Philip Fernbach, University of Colorado Boulder, USA In the third paper, the authors examine how consumers’ ability Nicholas Light, University of Colorado Boulder, USA to reason about—and emotional reactions to—scientific evidence re- late to their judgments.