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Nongshim (004370 KS /Buy ) Nongshim (004370 KS /Buy ) Implications of 5.5% ramen price hike Food & Beverage Nongshim to increase ramen prices by 5.5% on average; 6.4% price hike for Shin Ramyun (W780 W830) Issue Comment Price hike announcement came amid external difficulties December 16, 2016 Revenue to increase W55-60bn if consumption does not contract Price hikes unlikely to have a significant impact on ramen demand Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Ottogi and Samyang Food to increase ramen prices with a time lag of three to six months [F&B/Tobacco ] Woon -mok Baek Nongshim to hike ramen prices by 5.5% on average +822 -768 -4158 [email protected] Nongshim announced that it would hike the prices of some its ramen items, including its flagship Shin Ramyun product (+6.4% from W780 to W830), on December 20, 2016. The price hikes, which will average 5.5%, will mark the first increases since November 2011 (when prices were raised by 6.2% on average). Price hikes will be applied to 18 out of 28 ramen products. Shin Ramyun will retail for W830 (+6.4%; estimated annual revenue of W420bn in 2015), and Ansungtangmyun (revenue of W100bn) will be hiked 7.1% from W700 to W750. Meanwhile, Neoguri (revenue of W100bn) will be hiked 5.9% from W850 to W900, and Chapagetti (revenue of W120bn) will be hiked 5.6% from W900 to W950. Yukejang cup noodles will see a 6.3% price increase from W800 to W850. Premium products (priced at around W1,500), such as Jjawang (revenue of W40-50bn), Mat Jjamppong (revenue of W20bn), and Budae Jjigae will not undergo price hikes. Nongshim’s annual domestic ramen revenue is expected to come in at at W1.26tr in 2016, with 85% exposure to price hikes (about W1.07tr). Although the 5.5% hike does not appear sufficient, it is still meaningful that Nongshim will raise prices amid difficult conditions. Furthermore, the hikes prove that the company has control over the ramen market (prices and distribution network). Previously, ramen prices were hiked by 8.7% in May 2001, 8.5% in October 2002, 6.5% in December 2003, 8% in December 2004, and 7.4% in March 2007. The company cut prices by 4.5% on average in February 2010 but raised them by 6.2% in November 2011. As ramen prices should increase in line with rising income levels and higher prices for substitutes, we believe the most recently announced ramen price hikes were delayed. Although ramen consumption may contract in the two to three months immediately following the hike, annual consumption is unlikely to decrease since ramen is a staple. Hence, we do not believe that consumption will be overly sensitive to the price hikes. FY (Dec.) 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16F 12/17F 12/18F Revenue (Wbn) 2,087 2,042 2,182 2,213 2,269 2,326 OP (Wbn) 93 74 118 91 100 106 OP margin (%) 4.5 3.6 5.4 4.1 4.4 4.6 NP (Wbn) 88 65 117 198 81 88 EPS (W) 14,532 10,687 19,291 32,612 13,372 14,391 ROE (%) 6.0 4.3 7.4 11.6 4.5 4.7 P/E (x) 17.3 23.6 22.8 10.5 25.5 23.7 P/B (x) 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates December 16, 2016 Nongshim Nongshim’s revenue to be boosted by W55-60bn If ramen consumption does not contract, the price hikes will boost the company’s annual ramen revenue by W55-60bn (5.5% of W1.07tr revenue exposure), which is equivalent to 2.5-2.7% of consolidated revenue (W2.18tr in 2015). Of note, the 7.9% price hike for snacks boosted snack revenue in July. In theory, price hikes for ramen products should drive up operating profit in line with the increase in revenue (W55-60bn annually). However, the company may invest some of the gains from the price hike into SG&A in order to survive fierce competition with Ottogi. As such, we believe the increase in revenue will not be entirely reflected in operating profit. In addition, a potential rise in the US$/W rate (to W1,200) and further increases in raw material prices (flour, palm oil, potato starch, packing materials, soup products, etc.) could also drag down bottom line. Rivals to increase prices with a time lag Nongshim’s price hikes are expected to provoke Ottogi, Samyang Food, and PalDo to execute price hikes on ramen products as well, but with a time lag of three to six months. While competitors may hold off on price hikes in the near term to expand market share, we expect increases to emerge eventually given their importance to long- term profitability Table 1. Price increases for Nongshim’s core products Revenue Previous Revised Increase Increase rate Product (Wbn ) (W) (W) (W) (%) Shin Ramyun 420 780 830 50 6.4 Ansungtangmyun 100 700 750 50 7.1 Neoguri 100 850 900 50 5.9 Chapaghetti 120 900 950 50 5.6 Yukejang 100 800 850 50 6.3 Udon Noodle Soup - 1,700 1,800 100 5.9 Weighted average - 5.5 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 1. Shin Ramyun price trend Figure 2. Shin Ramyun price and GDP per capita (W) (%) (W) (US$) 900 Price (L) YoY (R) 25 900 Price (L) 30000 GDP per capita (R) 750 20 750 25000 600 15 600 20000 450 10 450 15000 300 5 300 10000 150 0 150 5000 0 -5 0 0 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 December 16, 2016 Nongshim Figure 3. Flour PPI and ramen CPI Figure 4. Ramen CPI and processed food CPI (2010=100) (2015=100) (2015=100) 150 Flour PPI (L) 150 110 Ramen CPI Ramen CPI (R) Processed food CPI 100 130 130 90 110 110 80 90 90 70 70 70 60 50 50 50 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5. Nongshim’s ramen ASP Figure 6. Nongshim’s ramen sales volume (W) (%) (mn units) (%) 700 ASP (L) YoY (R) 16 800 Sales volume (L) YoY (R) 20 750 600 12 10 700 500 8 650 0 400 4 600 -10 300 0 550 200 -4 500 -20 00 03 06 09 12 15 00 03 06 09 12 15 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 7. Nongshim’s ramen M/S Figure 8. Ottogi’s noodle product revenue (%) (Wbn) (%) 80 M/S 800 Noodle product revenue (L) 25 YoY (R) 75 700 20 15 70 600 10 65 500 5 60 400 0 55 300 -5 50 200 -10 00 03 06 09 12 15 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research December 16, 2016 Nongshim APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) Nongshim Nongshim (004370) 12/05/2016 Buy 420,000 600,000 11/01/2016 Buy 370,000 500,000 08/17/2016 Buy 430,000 400,000 11/30/2015 Buy 500,000 300,000 11/15/2015 Buy 450,000 09/09/2015 Buy 430,000 200,000 08/17/2015 Buy 400,000 100,000 05/26/2015 Trading Buy 320,000 0 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 11/24/2014 Trading Buy 310,000 Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. Equity Ratings Distribution BuyBuyBuy Trading Buy HoldHoldHold SellSellSell 69.27% 17.07% 13.66% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of September 30, 2016) Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subj ect company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding. Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations.
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