Collingwood Vs. Brisbane

www.footyratings.com Grand Final Applying the power of StatRatingä for AFL match analysis 2003 MCG

Collingwood vs. Brisbane

Head to Head – Collingwood vs. Brisbane

Coll Bris Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Brisbane StatRating™ Round Venue Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2000 9 Gabba 117 146 -29 12.2 8.8 434 781 -347 2001 15 MCG 103 129 -26 13.1 9.0 413 725 -312 2002 8 TD 114 111 3 10.9 9.1 413 640 -227 GF MCG 66 75 -9 13.0 11.2 355 516 -161 2003 4 Gabba 81 95 -14 12.0 11.2 435 446 -12 19 MCG 62 101 -39 12.2 11.6 378 432 -54 QF MCG 66 51 15 14.7 18.7 320 273 48 Average 87 101 -14 12.6 11.4 392 545 -153

Brisbane holds a 5-2 record against Collingwood over the last 4 years, with some sizeable Stats victories in the past. It was not uncommon for Brisbane to post a big StatRatingä Margin against Collingwood in the past, but this year has been very close. Brisbane’s efficiency (Possession per score) has been getting worse over the years, as it started under 9.0 in 2000, and has progressively moved out to around 11.5. Collingwood’s has remained fairly constant in that time, and perhaps this is a sign that Brisbane is not the force they once were. Similarly, the Magpies StatRatingä has remained constant over the past few years, while Brisbane has steadily been coming down. These figures suggest a change in momentum for the Pies, with their only concern being their final score, which has averaged at 69 over the last 4 games.

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Collingwood – Current Form

Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 19 MCG Bris 62 101 -39 12.2 11.6 378 432 -54 20 TD Adel 108 71 37 10.0 16.3 512 302 210 21 TS Syd 99 81 18 9.7 15.3 627 287 340 22 MCG Ess 83 67 16 12.6 12.9 412 364 48 QF MCG Bris 66 51 15 14.7 18.7 320 273 48 PF MCG Port 112 68 44 10.6 11.7 546 342 204 Average 88 73 15 11.6 14.4 466 333 133

The Magpies continued on their march towards September glory with an emphatic 44 point win over Port Adelaide last week. A feature of the Magpies wins since the mid season break has been their ability to shut down the opposition for the first half of each match. The Geelong and Brisbane games were the only time that they allowed the opposition to have more than 6 goals on the board at half time, and with that, they got a scare against Geelong, and lost the game against Brisbane. This definitely seems to be the barometer for the Pies chances during the game, and will provide a point of interest at Half Time during the Grand Final. Their average StatRatingä of 466 is workman like, and their StatRatingä Margin of 133 equates to average winning margin of 28 points on the scoreboard. They certainly rated high against Port Adelaide last week, but not high enough for a peak. Below are games where Collingwood have performed similarly this season.

Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 14 TD Kang 126 50 76 10.4 18.2 512 214 298 15 MCG Freo 99 58 41 14.2 12.3 395 405 -10 16 MCG Rich 131 62 69 10.3 17.7 515 243 272 17 MCG Carl 135 62 73 8.9 10.6 628 482 147 20 TD Adel 108 71 37 10.0 16.3 512 302 210 21 TS Syd 99 81 18 9.7 15.3 627 287 340 PF MCG Port 112 68 44 10.6 11.7 546 342 204

The cells highlighted in Blue represent current playing levels, while the cells highlighted in red show the game result in the following week. The cells in yellow highlight Collingwood’s StatRatingä. Their most current form is in bold at the bottom of the table. The Pies have certainly played well from these levels in the past this season. They have registered 3 wins from as many games this season, with all but the Fremantle game providing a high StatRatingä in the following week. The round 20 game against Adelaide is the most similar to their current form, and they were able to play a good game against Sydney at Telstra Stadium in the following week. They seem to have the right form at the right end of the season, and weather permitting, should post a score line close to 100 points this week

2 Brisbane – Current form

Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 20 Gabba Syd 76 90 -14 10.4 14.1 501 306 195 21 Gabba Geel 123 86 37 12.1 13.3 412 428 -16 22 TD WB 170 86 84 9.2 15.0 761 353 408 QF MCG Coll 51 66 -15 18.7 14.7 273 320 -48 SF Gabba Adel 124 82 42 9.0 13.4 598 382 216 PF TS Syd 100 56 44 9.7 15.3 503 255 249 Average 107 78 29 11.5 14.3 508 341 167

The Lions have come back with a vengeance over the last few weeks to stamp their authority in this competition. Questions were being asked after their 15 point loss to Collingwood in the Qualifying final, and they’ve followed that up with two 7 goal wins in the last 2 weeks. They also have been able to restrict the opposition score line, with Port Adelaide in round 17 being the last team to kick over 100 points against them. Their healthy average StatRatingä margin of 167 equates to roughly 35 points difference between themselves and the opposition teams over the last 6 weeks. Their efficiency over the last 2 weeks is back below 10.0, but unlike 2001 & 2002, they have not been able to maintain these averages this year. Their StatRatingä of 503 against Sydney has been matched twice before this season, and the table below highlights these 2 games.

Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 6 SS Geel 92 78 14 11.1 17.0 502 235 267 7 SCG Syd 79 98 -19 10.3 12.5 507 295 212 13 Gabba Rich 104 61 43 10.9 18.4 503 288 215 14 SUB Freo 72 75 -3 13.3 13.0 347 399 -52 PF TS Syd 100 56 44 9.7 15.3 503 255 249

The figures highlighted in blue represent current playing levels, while the figures in red show the game result in the following week. The cells highlighted in yellow indicate Brisbane’s StatRatingä in the following week. Their most current form is in bold at the bottom of the table. Round 6 and Round 13 are almost perfect matches to compare with Brisbane’s form last week against the Swans, as the StatRatingä is exact, and the opposition StatRatingä and StatRatingä Margins are within a 10% variance. The other similarity between these games is that Brisbane also traveled in the following week as they do this week against Collingwood. On face value, the Lions have lost both of their games when playing at these current levels, which is not the form they would be looking for entering a Grand Final. The 19 point loss in round 7 could have easily have been a win had it not been for some inaccuracy at goal, and they did manage to rate another similar StatRatingä of 507. The round 14 game against Fremantle produced a lower StatRatingä of 347, but the StatRatingä Margin was not far off the mark, and the game could have gone either way. These figures certainly don’t spell doomsday for the Lions, but don’t exactly leap out as winning form either. The point is this is not the ideal form to have coming into the match this week.

3 Collingwood – Form at MCG

Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 1 MCG Rich 94 66 28 10.0 11.2 460 436 24 2 MCG Carl 107 91 16 11.3 10.3 344 555 -211 3 MCG Geel 116 69 47 10.6 12.6 482 342 140 5 MCG Ess 81 147 -66 16.0 9.7 294 580 -286 11 MCG Melb 133 77 56 9.9 10.1 543 512 31 12 MCG Haw 51 84 -33 13.4 11.7 321 436 -114 15 MCG Freo 99 58 41 14.2 12.3 395 405 -10 16 MCG Rich 131 62 69 10.3 17.7 515 243 272 17 MCG Carl 135 62 73 8.9 10.6 628 482 147 19 MCG Bris 62 101 -39 12.2 11.6 378 432 -54 22 MCG Ess 83 67 16 12.6 12.9 412 364 48 QF MCG Bris 66 51 15 14.7 18.7 320 273 48 PF MCG Port 112 68 44 10.6 11.7 546 342 204 Averages 98 77 21 11.9 12.4 434 415 19

Collingwood has managed to win 10 of their 13 games at the MCG this year, with the 3 losses coming from Essendon, Hawthorn, and Brisbane. The 147 point score by Essendon has brought up the average opposition score to 77, which is still a very good effort for the Pies . The Pies have played well at this ground all year, and will definitely be advantaged playing here.

Brisbane – Form at MCG

Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2000 3 MCG Haw 103 110 -7 9.4 10.8 607 604 3 SF MCG Carl 69 151 -82 14.6 9.5 302 589 -288 2001 3 MCG Rich 94 116 -22 11.0 11.1 398 506 -108 15 MCG Coll 129 103 26 9.0 13.1 725 413 312 GF MCG Ess 108 82 26 11.3 13.9 603 378 225 2002 17 MCG Haw 124 68 56 8.7 16.5 630 291 339 GF MCG Coll 75 66 9 11.2 13.0 516 355 161 2003 19 MCG Coll 101 62 39 11.6 12.2 432 378 54 QF MCG Coll 51 66 -15 18.7 14.7 273 320 -48

Brisbane’s form at the home of football is also very good, as they have posted 5 wins from their last 6 games here. Not since round 15 of 2001 against Collingwood have they allowed the opposition to score more than 100 points against them in an awesome display. Their averages in 2003 seemed to have dropped sharply from previous seasons, but both have been against Collingwood. Brisbane have proven in the last 2 years that this ground holds no fear for them, and will not be disadvantaged by playing at this venue.

Brisbane – Consecutive away games

Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2001 3 MCG Rich 94 116 -22 11.0 11.1 398 506 -108 4 TD WB 87 140 -53 11.7 8.9 453 743 -290 7 SCG Syd 112 80 32 9.4 14.3 832 365 467 8 Optus Carl 68 142 -74 14.0 10.7 342 618 -276 20 SUB Freo 138 87 51 9.9 11.4 444 449 -4 21 SS Geel 110 67 43 10.0 11.7 431 462 -31 2002 4 TD WB 94 78 16 11.8 18.3 482 224 257 5 SUB WCE 75 121 -46 10.6 9.3 350 644 -293 17 MCG Haw 124 68 56 8.7 16.5 630 291 339 18 TD Ess 108 71 37 10.7 17.9 506 274 232 21 SS Geel 110 55 55 10.6 15.1 519 312 207 22 AAMI Port 84 90 -6 15.2 11.6 348 397 -48 2003 2 AAMI Port 86 76 10 14.1 11.6 332 422 -90 3 TD Kang 109 109 0 10.2 10.0 560 522 39 6 SS Geel 92 78 14 11.1 17.0 502 235 267 7 SCG Syd 79 98 -19 10.3 12.5 507 295 212 22 TD WB 170 86 84 9.2 15.0 761 353 408 QF MCG Coll 51 66 -15 18.7 14.7 273 320 -48

This stat was brought up last time these 2 teams played, and it was highlighted then that this is when Brisbane is at their most vulnerable. They have now played 9 games over the past 3 years when traveling in successive weeks, and their record is 2 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. This year, they have failed to win when traveling away in successive weeks. They played against Sydney at Telstra Stadium in the Preliminary final last week, and even though they travel to Melbourne this week, they will probably get here a lot earlier than if it was your average home and away game. This may mean that it may not have as much impact, but it’s a stat that cannot be ignored, and not the ideal preparation for the Lions. In 2001 and 2002, the Lions had the luxury of 2 home Finals with a week off in between, before coming down to Melbourne. Their routine was simple; Gabba, week off, Gabba, MCG. This year, their Finals build up has been slightly different. It started in Round 22 when they played the Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome. Their build up looks something like this; Telstra Dome, MCG, Gabba, Telstra Stadium, MCG. That’s 4 away games in 5 weeks, which is a big ask for any side, particularly in Finals.

5 Brisbane – Form coming into 2002 Grand Final

Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2002 16 Gabba Syd 117 79 38 9.3 15.2 603 296 308 17 MCG Haw 124 68 56 8.7 16.5 630 291 339 18 TD Ess 108 71 37 10.7 17.9 506 274 232 19 Gabba WB 105 67 38 9.0 13.0 622 345 277 20 Gabba WCE 136 89 47 9.2 10.9 600 451 149 21 SS Geel 110 55 55 10.6 15.1 519 312 207 22 AAMI Port 84 90 -6 15.2 11.6 348 397 -48 QF Gabba Adel 115 44 71 10.1 15.2 564 296 269 PF Gabba Port 138 82 56 9.2 12.0 623 376 246 GF MCG Coll 75 66 9 11.2 13.0 516 355 161 Average 111 71 40 10.3 14.0 553 339 214

Brisbane’s form coming into last years Grand Final was much better than it is this year. They had won 9 of their last 10 games, and their averages were a lot higher than this year. Their average winning margin has come down from 40 points to 29 points, and their StatRatingä Margin has come down from 214 to 169. This year, they enter the game with a 6-4 win/loss ratio, and taking into account their average winning margin and average StatRatingä Margin, they have gone backwards by approximately 11 points from the side that played in last years Grand final.

Collingwood – Form coming into 2002 Grand Final

Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2002 16 MCG Rich 89 49 40 11.3 19.1 406 193 213 17 SUB WCE 56 114 -58 17.8 10.8 253 511 -259 18 MCG Carl 141 33 108 8.6 19.2 666 156 510 19 MCG Haw 97 105 -8 10.5 9.6 447 550 -103 20 MCG Ess 71 126 -55 11.8 11.4 383 467 -84 21 MCG Stk 77 66 11 12.4 16.3 396 332 65 22 MCG WB 73 114 -41 12.5 11.2 367 580 -213 QF AAMI Port 108 95 13 10.3 10.6 429 549 -120 PF MCG Adel 91 63 28 11.2 16.1 466 273 193 GF MCG Bris 66 75 -9 13.0 11.2 355 516 -161 Average 87 84 3 11.9 13.6 417 413 4

Collingwood’s form coming into last years Grand Final is vastly different from their form this year. They entered the game with a 5-5 win/loss record, which is reflected in their overall average StatRatingä Margin. This year, they have upped their winning margin to 15 points, and their average StatRatingä Margin up to 133 points. Their form coming into this match this year is now 9-1 from their last 10 games, and considering their average winning margin, and their Average StatRatingä Margin, is at least a 22 point better side than the one that fell to Brisbane last year.

6 Final Summary

· Head to Head Contests are 5-2 in Brisbane’s favour. · Collingwood has been able to play well from their current playing levels, with 3 wins from as many games this year. · Brisbane has posted 2 losses from 2 games this season at these current levels, and both have been away games in the following week. . · Both Collingwood and Brisbane’s form at he MCG has been very good in the past, with no side having a clear advantage at this ground. · Brisbane’s form when traveling in successive weeks has played against them over the past 3 years, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. They will play their 4th away game in the last 5 weeks. At these levels, they are vulnerable. · Brisbane’s form coming into the Grand Final was far superior than it is this year. Overall, they are an 11 point inferior side to the one that played in last years Grand Final. · Collingwood’s form coming into the game this year is much better than 2002. Overall they are a 22 point better side that played in last years Grand Final.

Current odds on offer from Sports Bookmakers are

Collingwood $1.90 Brisbane $1.90

You couldn’t get a better game for the last day in September, with both sides being deserved Grand Finalists. Taking into account the previous 6 pages, it seems as though Eddie’s dream of a premiership cup could turn into reality. Collingwood have the right current form coming into this game, and meet Brisbane on very good terms. Brisbane’s current levels are dubious, and although the Grand Final week celebrations come into play, the successive weeks of travel have to be a factor. Four away games in 5 weeks will have to take its toll. The Brisbane Lions have enjoyed home Preliminary Finals in the past 2 years, and come off quite a few interstate trips in this game, while the Pies have had a weeks rest , and have not played out of Melbourne. If there was to be a side that could overcome all these factors, the current Brisbane lineup would certainly fit the bill. They have shown in the past 2 weeks what they are capable of, and would be deserving Premiers if they can beat the odds. They have enjoyed a great time at the Top of the AFL ladder, but perhaps their dominance is starting to wane. Drawing an analogy to the brilliant Essendon side before them, the Bombers were at the top for 2 and half years before falling. 1999 was a great year for the Dons albeit for that horror Preliminary Final against Carlton. In 2000, they were almost unbeatable and duly won the Flag. The first half of 2001 was very good, but the Dons began to fall in the second half of that season. It’s no coincidence that this is when Brisbane started to gain their ascendancy, and blitzed through the second half of 2001 and won the Flag. In 2002 the Lions were virtually unbeatable (sound familiar?) and won the Premiership again. In the first half of 2003 the Lions were in great form, but started to drop off in the second half of the year. Will history repeat it self with Collingwood, which has won 11 of their past 12 games in the second half of the year, to dethrone the current King of the mountain? The stage is set for a great game, and come 5pm on Saturday, we could have a new King…..

RECOMMENDATION: Collingwood again has conditions in their favour to secure victory against Brisbane. With the betting being so close, straight out @ $1.90 should suffice.

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