www.footyratings.com Grand Final Applying the power of StatRatingä for AFL match analysis 2003 MCG Collingwood vs. Brisbane Head to Head – Collingwood vs. Brisbane Coll Bris Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Brisbane StatRating™ Round Venue Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2000 9 Gabba 117 146 -29 12.2 8.8 434 781 -347 2001 15 MCG 103 129 -26 13.1 9.0 413 725 -312 2002 8 TD 114 111 3 10.9 9.1 413 640 -227 GF MCG 66 75 -9 13.0 11.2 355 516 -161 2003 4 Gabba 81 95 -14 12.0 11.2 435 446 -12 19 MCG 62 101 -39 12.2 11.6 378 432 -54 QF MCG 66 51 15 14.7 18.7 320 273 48 Average 87 101 -14 12.6 11.4 392 545 -153 Brisbane holds a 5-2 record against Collingwood over the last 4 years, with some sizeable Stats victories in the past. It was not uncommon for Brisbane to post a big StatRatingä Margin against Collingwood in the past, but this year has been very close. Brisbane’s efficiency (Possession per score) has been getting worse over the years, as it started under 9.0 in 2000, and has progressively moved out to around 11.5. Collingwood’s has remained fairly constant in that time, and perhaps this is a sign that Brisbane is not the force they once were. Similarly, the Magpies StatRatingä has remained constant over the past few years, while Brisbane has steadily been coming down. These figures suggest a change in momentum for the Pies, with their only concern being their final score, which has averaged at 69 over the last 4 games. Get your FREE 2003 AFL Pre-match analysis at www.footyratings.com Collingwood – Current Form Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 19 MCG Bris 62 101 -39 12.2 11.6 378 432 -54 20 TD Adel 108 71 37 10.0 16.3 512 302 210 21 TS Syd 99 81 18 9.7 15.3 627 287 340 22 MCG Ess 83 67 16 12.6 12.9 412 364 48 QF MCG Bris 66 51 15 14.7 18.7 320 273 48 PF MCG Port 112 68 44 10.6 11.7 546 342 204 Average 88 73 15 11.6 14.4 466 333 133 The Magpies continued on their march towards September glory with an emphatic 44 point win over Port Adelaide last week. A feature of the Magpies wins since the mid season break has been their ability to shut down the opposition for the first half of each match. The Geelong and Brisbane games were the only time that they allowed the opposition to have more than 6 goals on the board at half time, and with that, they got a scare against Geelong, and lost the game against Brisbane. This definitely seems to be the barometer for the Pies chances during the game, and will provide a point of interest at Half Time during the Grand Final. Their average StatRatingä of 466 is workman like, and their StatRatingä Margin of 133 equates to average winning margin of 28 points on the scoreboard. They certainly rated high against Port Adelaide last week, but not high enough for a peak. Below are games where Collingwood have performed similarly this season. Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 14 TD Kang 126 50 76 10.4 18.2 512 214 298 15 MCG Freo 99 58 41 14.2 12.3 395 405 -10 16 MCG Rich 131 62 69 10.3 17.7 515 243 272 17 MCG Carl 135 62 73 8.9 10.6 628 482 147 20 TD Adel 108 71 37 10.0 16.3 512 302 210 21 TS Syd 99 81 18 9.7 15.3 627 287 340 PF MCG Port 112 68 44 10.6 11.7 546 342 204 The cells highlighted in Blue represent current playing levels, while the cells highlighted in red show the game result in the following week. The cells in yellow highlight Collingwood’s StatRatingä. Their most current form is in bold at the bottom of the table. The Pies have certainly played well from these levels in the past this season. They have registered 3 wins from as many games this season, with all but the Fremantle game providing a high StatRatingä in the following week. The round 20 game against Adelaide is the most similar to their current form, and they were able to play a good game against Sydney at Telstra Stadium in the following week. They seem to have the right form at the right end of the season, and weather permitting, should post a score line close to 100 points this week 2 Brisbane – Current form Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 20 Gabba Syd 76 90 -14 10.4 14.1 501 306 195 21 Gabba Geel 123 86 37 12.1 13.3 412 428 -16 22 TD WB 170 86 84 9.2 15.0 761 353 408 QF MCG Coll 51 66 -15 18.7 14.7 273 320 -48 SF Gabba Adel 124 82 42 9.0 13.4 598 382 216 PF TS Syd 100 56 44 9.7 15.3 503 255 249 Average 107 78 29 11.5 14.3 508 341 167 The Lions have come back with a vengeance over the last few weeks to stamp their authority in this competition. Questions were being asked after their 15 point loss to Collingwood in the Qualifying final, and they’ve followed that up with two 7 goal wins in the last 2 weeks. They also have been able to restrict the opposition score line, with Port Adelaide in round 17 being the last team to kick over 100 points against them. Their healthy average StatRatingä margin of 167 equates to roughly 35 points difference between themselves and the opposition teams over the last 6 weeks. Their efficiency over the last 2 weeks is back below 10.0, but unlike 2001 & 2002, they have not been able to maintain these averages this year. Their StatRatingä of 503 against Sydney has been matched twice before this season, and the table below highlights these 2 games. Opp Bris Opp Game Possession OPossession Brisbane Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 6 SS Geel 92 78 14 11.1 17.0 502 235 267 7 SCG Syd 79 98 -19 10.3 12.5 507 295 212 13 Gabba Rich 104 61 43 10.9 18.4 503 288 215 14 SUB Freo 72 75 -3 13.3 13.0 347 399 -52 PF TS Syd 100 56 44 9.7 15.3 503 255 249 The figures highlighted in blue represent current playing levels, while the figures in red show the game result in the following week. The cells highlighted in yellow indicate Brisbane’s StatRatingä in the following week. Their most current form is in bold at the bottom of the table. Round 6 and Round 13 are almost perfect matches to compare with Brisbane’s form last week against the Swans, as the StatRatingä is exact, and the opposition StatRatingä and StatRatingä Margins are within a 10% variance. The other similarity between these games is that Brisbane also traveled in the following week as they do this week against Collingwood. On face value, the Lions have lost both of their games when playing at these current levels, which is not the form they would be looking for entering a Grand Final. The 19 point loss in round 7 could have easily have been a win had it not been for some inaccuracy at goal, and they did manage to rate another similar StatRatingä of 507. The round 14 game against Fremantle produced a lower StatRatingä of 347, but the StatRatingä Margin was not far off the mark, and the game could have gone either way. These figures certainly don’t spell doomsday for the Lions, but don’t exactly leap out as winning form either. The point is this is not the ideal form to have coming into the match this week. 3 Collingwood – Form at MCG Opp Coll Opp Game Possession OPossession Collingwood Opposition StatRating™ Round Venue Team Score Score Result per Score per Score StatRating™ StatRating™ Margin 2003 1 MCG Rich 94 66 28 10.0 11.2 460 436 24 2 MCG Carl 107 91 16 11.3 10.3 344 555 -211 3 MCG Geel 116 69 47 10.6 12.6 482 342 140 5 MCG Ess 81 147 -66 16.0 9.7 294 580 -286 11 MCG Melb 133 77 56 9.9 10.1 543 512 31 12 MCG Haw 51 84 -33 13.4 11.7 321 436 -114 15 MCG Freo 99 58 41 14.2 12.3 395 405 -10 16 MCG Rich 131 62 69 10.3 17.7 515 243 272 17 MCG Carl 135 62 73 8.9 10.6 628 482 147 19 MCG Bris 62 101 -39 12.2 11.6 378 432 -54 22 MCG Ess 83 67 16 12.6 12.9 412 364 48 QF MCG Bris 66 51 15 14.7 18.7 320 273 48 PF MCG Port 112 68 44 10.6 11.7 546 342 204 Averages 98 77 21 11.9 12.4 434 415 19 Collingwood has managed to win 10 of their 13 games at the MCG this year, with the 3 losses coming from Essendon, Hawthorn, and Brisbane.