Wallan Area Network Improvements

VicRoads

Regional Economic Assessment

17 February 2020

Regional Economic Assessment VicRoads

Regional Economic Assessment

Project No: IS255100 Document Title: Regional Economic Assessment Revision: 3 Date: 17 February 2020 Client Name: VicRoads Project Manager: Eoin Richardson Author: Eoin Richardson File Name: J:\IE\Projects\03_Southern\IS255100\21 Deliverables\WANI - Final Regional Economic Assessment Report - 2020 Update.docx

Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Limited ABN 37 001 024 095 Floor 11, 452 Flinders Street Melbourne VIC 3000 PO Box 312, Flinders Lane Melbourne VIC 8009 Australia T +61 3 8668 3000 F +61 3 8668 3001 www.jacobs.com

Document history and status

Revision Date Description By Review Approved

1 31/8/18 Draft Final – For issue Eoin Richardson Matthew De Matthew De Marco Marco

2 26/9/18 Final – For issue Eoin Richardson Matthew De Matthew De Marco Marco

3 17/2/20 Post-Final – Response to Feedback Eoin Richardson Matthew De Matthew De Marco Marco

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Contents Executive Summary ...... 1 1. Introduction ...... 3 1.1 Scope ...... 3 1.2 Project background ...... 3 1.3 Report purpose ...... 6 2. Methodology ...... 7 2.1 Process ...... 7 2.1.1 Determining the regional economic baseline ...... 7 2.1.2 Identification of potentially impacted businesses ...... 7 2.1.3 Analysis ...... 7 2.2 Study area ...... 7 2.2.1 Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs) ...... 9 3. Results ...... 12 3.1 Existing conditions – regional context ...... 12 3.1.1 Headline size of the economy ...... 12 3.1.2 Economic trends shaping the region - Population and Demography ...... 12 3.1.3 Industry composition (GVA) of Mitchell compared to Victoria ...... 13 3.1.4 Business counts and business size ...... 14 3.1.5 Freight sector ...... 15 3.1.6 Tourism economy ...... 16 3.2 Workforce participation and employment ...... 16 3.2.1 Industries of employment by numbers ...... 16 3.2.2 Workforce participation and unemployment rates ...... 17 3.2.3 Occupation types ...... 17 3.2.4 Locations of employment ...... 17 3.2.5 Household income ...... 18 3.3 Summary ...... 18 4. Discussion ...... 20 4.1 Areas of note ...... 20 4.1.1 Wallan Southern Gateway Precinct ...... 20 4.1.2 Hadfield Park ...... 21 4.1.3 Beveridge Intermodal Freight Terminal ...... 22 4.1.4 Proposed North Central Quarry ...... 22 4.2 Aggregate economic impacts ...... 23 4.2.1 Employment impacts ...... 24 4.2.2 Qualitative impacts ...... 24 5. Legislation and Policy ...... 25

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5.1 State level ...... 25 5.2 Local level ...... 27 6. Mitigation Measures ...... 29 6.1 Pre-construction ...... 29 6.2 During construction ...... 29 6.3 Post construction ...... 29 7. Conclusions ...... 30 8. Recommendations ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. 9. Glossary of Terms ...... 32 10. References ...... 33 10.1 Policy Documents ...... 33

Appendix A. Assignment Brief Appendix B. Preliminary Roll Plots – Northern Highway

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Executive Summary

Jacobs has been engaged by VicRoads to undertake an economic impact analysis of the Wallan Area Network Improvements Project (WANI). This report builds on our previously provided broad overview1 and covers existing conditions, qualitative description of expected direct and indirect economic impacts at a regional level and on particular industries and businesses, as well as management and mitigation measures for these impacts.

The WANI Project Planning Study comprises: 1) Improvements to the Hume Freeway / Wallan Whittlesea Road interchange 2) Wallan Whittlesea Road (Watson Street) duplication and Northern Highway / Watson Street intersection improvements 3) The Northern Highway duplication from the Hume intersection to the Watson Street intersection, south of Wallan

At the macroeconomic level, Wallan is one of the fastest growing areas in Victoria in terms of many economic indicators, including population and GRP, and is projected to continue this trajectory over the next 20 years due to its location in relation to Melbourne. The Shire of Mitchell (hereafter ‘Mitchell’) and Wallan in particular are characterised by strong population growth, high levels of employment and above average household incomes. The rapidly growing population in the area will continue to create further demand for the local transport network. Further investment into transport infrastructure may be needed to reduce transportation costs and improve amenity in surrounding areas.

In conjunction with Precinct Structure Plan (PSP) developments, the Wallan Area Network Improvement project would provide infrastructure support for the establishment of the area as well as potentially provide job opportunities in what would be a substantial construction exercise.

Public administration & safety, rental, hiring & real estate services, and construction are the largest contributors to the Shire of Mitchell’s Gross Regional Product (GRP). In terms of employment, construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance are all dominant employers in Wallan and the surrounding areas. Tourism does not currently play a significant role in the region.

These sectors are all dependent on a developed transport system that can efficiently transport goods and people and that also improves amenity in key precincts. These jobs are partly supported by demand created by through traffic in the townships.

At the local level, the Southern Gateway precinct of Wallan is most directly impacted by the duplication of the Northern Highway and Watson Street, and development should proceed with infrastructure support to this area in mind. Improvements to the Hume Freeway interchange will impact on the East Wallan PSP, with freight traffic expected to be a priority in this area due to the future Beveridge Intermodal Freight Terminal (BIFT) in the Northern Freight PSP. Furthermore, new housing developments from PSPs and general development will cause a large increase in residential traffic within the Wallan township.

The Wallan township is located at the northern extent of Melbourne’s Northern Growth Corridor. The Northern Highway passes directly through the town’s centre, whilst the Hume Freeway, the principal freight route between Melbourne and Sydney runs along the eastern side of the township. The Northern Highway provides important arterial access to the northern areas of the state as well as servicing strong residential growth in Wallan, Kilmore and Broadford. The southern section of the Northern Highway has experienced increasing demand in recent years for access employment, retail, health and education services predominately located in Melbourne’s metropolitan area.

1 Jacobs, July 2018

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The business case process has identified a single preferred project option for the Wallan Area Network Improvements; as such, there is no comparison of options in this analysis.

Analysis of macro-economic indicators indicates that the area would, in general, benefit from the Wallan Area Network Improvement projects. The main industries to benefit include manufacturing (particularly exporters) and the freight sector, which would benefit from improved travel times and a boost in integration with the broader Shire of Mitchell and Victorian economy. Depending on traffic reassignment, there may be amenity benefits to residents and therefore local hospitality businesses may be able to capitalise on increased visitor activity in Wallan town centre.

At the local level, improvements to footpaths along Watson Street will improve access to Wallan railway station in the east via active modes, potentially increasing patronage.

Conclusions

• Wallan is one of the fastest growing areas in Victoria, and this is projected to continue over the next 20 years. The rapidly growing population in the area will continue to create further demand for the local transport network. Further investment into transport infrastructure may be needed;

• In conjunction with PSP developments, the WANI would provide infrastructure support for the establishment of the area as well as job opportunities;

• Public administration & safety, rental, hiring & real estate services, and construction are the largest contributors to Mitchell’s GRP.2 In terms of employment, construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance are dominant employers in Wallan;

• Tourism does not currently play a significant role in the region;

• The Southern Gateway precinct of Wallan3 is most directly impacted by the duplication, and development should proceed with infrastructure support to this area in mind;

• Improvements to the Hume Freeway interchange will impact on the East Wallan PSP; freight traffic will be a priority in this area due to the future BIFT in the Northern Freight PSP, but new housing developments will cause a large increase in residential traffic.;

• Improvements to footpaths along Watson Street will improve access to Wallan railway station in the east via active modes, potentially increasing patronage.

Recommendations

• Continue working with Mitchell Shire Council and VPA to ensure alignment with the Wallan Masterplan and surrounding PSPs; • Provide active transport along Watson Street; • Consult landowners who are affected by partial or full acquisition to establish case-specific mitigations; • For businesses that are unaffected by land acquisition, ensure continued access and communication.

2 Mitchell Shire Council Economic and Investment Profile 2018 – REMPLAN, 2018 3 Wallan Masterplan and UDF

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1. Introduction

1.1 Scope

Jacobs has been engaged by VicRoads to undertake a regional economic assessment for the Wallan Area Network Improvements. The objectives of this study are to review the existing local and regional economic conditions and assess the magnitude of economic and business impacts of the preferred option. It should be noted that complementary assessments, such as a targeted agriculture impact assessment and land use impact assessment, are being undertaken by other consultants. Targeted agricultural impact assessments are not required as the area is now rezoned as part of the Precinct Structure Plans lead by the Victorian Planning Authority for residential, commercial and or light industrial use.

The report presents background context and an assessment of the impacts of the project on business and tourism related activities for the Wallan area and wider Mitchell region. As there is only one option under consideration, an Objectives-Based Evaluation Matrix and corridor alignment assessment are not required.

1.2 Project background

This report builds on our previously provided broad overview, and covers existing conditions, qualitative description of expected direct and indirect economic impacts at a regional level and on particular industries and businesses, as well as management and mitigation measures for these impacts.

The Wallan Area Network Improvements Project Planning Study comprises: 1) Improvements to the Hume Freeway / Wallan Whittlesea Road interchange 2) Wallan Whittlesea Road (Watson Street) duplication and Northern Highway / Watson Street intersection improvements 3) The Northern Highway duplication from the Hume intersection to the Watson Street intersection, south of Wallan

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Figure 1-1 Wallan Area Network Improvements – Project Map

The project will be separated into three stages of construction. These comprise the introduction of southerly orientated ramps at the interchange of Watson Street and the Hume Freeway, including upgrades to ramp terminals and overpass approaches. The inclusion of a second bridge structure over the freeway and the upgrade and/or replacement of the existing Watson Street overpass structure. This is followed by the duplication of Watson Street between the western ramp terminal and the Northern Highway, including upgrades to

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signalised intersections. A third stage involving the duplication of the Northern Highway between the Hume Freeway and Watson Street is currently in planning.

At the macroeconomic level, Wallan is one of the fastest growing areas in Victoria in terms of many economic indicators, including population and Gross Regional Product (GRP), and is projected to continue this trajectory over the next 20 years due to its location. The Shire of Mitchell and Wallan in particular are characterised by strong population growth, high levels of employment and above average household incomes. The rapidly growing population in the area will continue to create further demand for the local transport network. Further investment into transport infrastructure may be needed to reduce transportation costs and improve amenity in surrounding areas.

The Northern Highway passes directly through the town’s centre, whilst the Hume Freeway, the principal freight route between Melbourne and Sydney runs along the eastern side of the township. The Northern Highway provides important arterial access to the northern areas of the state as well as servicing strong residential growth in Wallan, Kilmore and Broadford. The southern section of the Northern Highway has experienced increasing demand in recent years for access employment, retail, health and education services predominately located in Melbourne’s metropolitan area.

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1.3 Report purpose

The purpose of this report is to: • Describe existing conditions from a regional context and for the study area • Highlight areas of focus for the regional economic assessment • Recommend future actions This analysis will provide VicRoads with a high-level assessment of the likely impact of the WANI on existing businesses, and mitigations that should be undertaken to protect them. It also describes the economic context of the Wallan area as part of Mitchell and in comparison to Victoria. The study identified whether particular businesses in the core study area have critical structural and or supply chain linkages to other business in the general study area, and assessed the risk of job losses directly (and indirectly) linked to land acquisition, development and on-going operation of the project.

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2. Methodology

2.1 Process

Population and employment statistics for the relevant statistical areas were gathered from online resources including ABS census data, REMPLAN and forecast.id. Businesses potentially affected by the project were identified through Google Maps to locate businesses within the study area, as well as discussion with the client and Council liaison. Impacts will be assessed using the data available at this stage of the project.

2.1.1 Determining the regional economic baseline

Relevant statistics were gathered from the sources above to determine the characteristics of the regional economy in its present state. These include: • Gross regional product • Gross value added • Income statistics • Labour force • Business size and sectors

2.1.2 Identification of potentially impacted businesses

Businesses potentially affected by the project were identified by using Google Maps to locate businesses within the study area with reference to the corridor, as well as consultation with Council and VicRoads. Potential impacts were assessed using the data available at this stage of the project.

2.1.3 Analysis

The estimated impact on operators was calculated based on the alignments and footprints provided by VicRoads, as highlighted in Section 4 of this report. To maximise benefits to the Wallan region, the procurement process should maximise the amount of the supply chain procured in the local area, through using local labourers and materials insofar as possible.

2.2 Study area

As the ABS Wallan Statistical Area 2 covers a much larger area than the Wallan township as the study area is primarily composed of the ABS Wallan State Suburb (SSC). Where data is not available at this level, we have examined the broader Mitchell Local Government Area (LGA).

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Figure 2-1 Study Area – Mitchell LGA

Figure 2-2 Study Area – Wallan SSC

Source: MapData Services Pty Ltd (MDS), PSMA Australia Limited

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The current concept designs for Northern Highway Duplication works are shown in Appendix B (provided separately). The options are as follows: 1. Boulevard treatment of four lanes with a planted centre median, 80km/hr and no land acquisition. 2. Boulevard treatment of four lanes with 4m footpath and 3m cycling path each way, and co-designed amenity and placemaking improvements and a kerbed centre median, 60km/hr and land acquisition for additional carriage way or Bus Rapid Transit option, PSP intersections to be built under ICP (VPA instructions) (Preferred). 2A. Boulevard treatment of four lanes and two Bus Rapid Transit lanes with 4m footpath and 3m cycling path each way, and co-designed amenity and placemaking improvements and a kerbed centre median, 60km/hr, PSP intersections to be built under ICP (VPA instructions). 2B. Boulevard treatment of six lanes with 4m footpath and 3m cycling path each way, and co-designed amenity and placemaking improvements and a kerbed centre median, 60km/hr, PSP intersections to be built under ICP (VPA instructions). 3. Urban highway with six lanes and a planted centre median, 80km/hr.

Note that the roll plots as shown are early draft designs subject to change and show the largest possible area for acquisition. Local impacts and recommended mitigations are based on this estimate.

2.2.1 Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs)

Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs) are high level master plans for whole communities planned to be constructed between 2020 and 2060. PSPs layout roads, shopping centre, schools, parks, housing, employment, connections to transport and generally resolve the complex issues of biodiversity, cultural heritage, infrastructure provision and Council charges.

The Victorian Planning Authority (VPA) is the statutory authority responsible for overseeing the preparation of all precinct structure plans in Melbourne's growth areas and advising the Minister for Planning on their approval. The VPA works in partnership with growth area Councils and VicRoads to complete the planning for Melbourne Growth Areas.

As the Urban Growth Boundary of Melbourne was expanded in 2012 to include Wallan, several PSPs have been proposed for the region, of which Wallan South, Wallan East, Beveridge North West, Beveridge North East and Northern Freight are relevant to the project. However, only Beveridge North West is being developed at the time of this report. It is currently under Council consultation.

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Figure 2-3 Northern Growth Corridor PSPs

Source: Northern Growth Corridor Potential Development Sequencing – Patch Design

The Northern Growth Corridor Sequencing Report provides some preliminary statistics estimating the yield of each PSP. 4 An assumed rate of 70% net developable area (NDA) in each PSP and 16 dwellings per NDA has been used as standard for the overall corridor. Projected population increases are based on persons per household (p/ph). This differs from the VPA standard of 2.8 p/ph but is claimed to be a more accurate reflection of household size within the growth areas.

4 Northern Growth Corridor Potential Development Sequencing – Patch Design/Mitchell Shire Council, April 2016, p. 9

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Based on these figures, a total of 9,332 additional dwellings are forecast for construction in Wallan and its two PSPs by 2060, with a total population increase of 28,930 in that time. Beveridge North-West and North-East are predicted to include 15,508 additional dwellings by 2060, with a corresponding population increase of 48,075.

Table 2-1 Projected dwelling and population increase in project area, 2016-2060

PSP/Area Dwellings Population increase

Beveridge North-West 11,856 36,755

Beveridge North-East 3,652 11,320

Wallan South 3,972 12,313

Wallan East 1,081 3,350

Established Wallan Areas 4,280 13,268

Total 24,841 77,006

Source: Northern Growth Corridor Potential Development Sequencing, Table 2

Development in the Beveridge North-West PSP is projected to begin by 2020 as identified in the Northern Growth Corridor Sequencing Report, with Wallan South commencing by 2030. The report notes that the development of Wallan South along the Northern Highway is predicted to cause the PSP to meet Beveridge North-West by 2040, requiring the construction of the E-14 Transport corridor across Hadfield Road to relieve the Northern Highway. The report also assumes that development of the Beveridge Intermodal Freight Terminal (BIFT) will not commence before 2055; VPA has indicated that DEDJTR intend to bring this forward, but no further information is available at time of writing.

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3. Results This section describes the current economic profile of the study area. Where possible, data is presented at the State Suburb level for Wallan; broader Mitchell LGA and Victorian data is also shown for context. Note that while the area is generally known as ‘Shire of Mitchell’, the LGA is simply ‘Mitchell’. Hereafter, the text will use ‘Mitchell’ to refer to both.

3.1 Existing conditions – regional context

3.1.1 Headline size of the economy

The Gross Regional Product (GRP) of an area is the equivalent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for a particular region. GRP is the amount of the nation’s wealth which is generated by businesses, organisations and individuals working in the area.

REMPLAN data for the Mitchell region is available for GRP. Mitchell contributed approximately $1.8 billion to GRP in 2017 which is 0.45% of Victoria’s total GRP (refer Table 3-1). The GRP for the region has grown at a faster rate than the state average in recent years (42 per cent growth between 2014 and 2018, compared to 20% per cent in Victoria), with 2017 being a period of particularly high growth.

Overall, the region is more volatile in its growth pattern than Victoria, possibly due to there being only a few large contributors to economic output in the region. The project provides an opportunity to support growth in the region’s GRP by improving the productivity of freight supply chains.

Table 3-1 Gross Regional Product ($2018)

Mitchell Victoria Year % change from % change from GRP $bn GRP $bn previous year previous year

2014 1.29 - 337.49 -

2015 1.43 10.6% 350.34 3.8%

2016 1.47 2.9% 360.55 2.9%

2017 1.83 24.5% 406.53 12.8%

Source: Latest REMPLAN data incorporating Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Gross State Product

3.1.2 Economic trends shaping the region - Population and Demography

In the 2016 census, the pre-existing Wallan SSC was divided into the current Wallan SSC (the study area) and the Beveridge SSC. As such, the 2011 census figures are pro-rated by the population ratio of Wallan to Beveridge in 2016 for a more accurate comparison.5

The Wallan SSC comprises approximately 0.2% of Victoria’s population. From a population perspective, Wallan has grown much faster than the average for Victoria between 2011 and 2016, at a rate of over 10% per annum compared to 2% per annum. As the population of Wallan has grown faster than the GRP for the Mitchell region, this reflects its status as a commuter suburb for Melbourne.

5 ABS 2016 QuickStats, Beveridge and Wallan SSCs; 11,074/13,404 = 82.6%

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The Mitchell LGA contains Wallan, Kilmore, Seymour and Broadford, and its population also grew faster than the Victorian average between 2011 and 2016, though slower than Wallan; 64% of this growth occurred in Wallan.

Past population growth statistics are provided in Table 3-2.

Table 3-2 Residential Population 2011-2016

Resident population Population change (2011-2016) Location 2011 2016 Number % Growth

Wallan SSC 7,024 11,074 4,050 57.7%

Mitchell LGA 34,637 40,918 6,281 18.1%

Victoria 5,354,039 5,926,624 572,585 10.6%

Source: ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia: Census of Population and Housing, Total Persons, 2016

The population of Wallan is projected to grow to 32,388 by 2036, an average annual growth rate of approximately 8.1% (Table 3-3). 6 This is once again higher than the growth rate expected in the Mitchell region and Victoria over the same period.

Table 3-3 Population Projections

Estimated resident population Population change (2018-36) Location 2018 2036 Number % Change

Wallan SSC 13,171 32,388 19,217 145.9%

Mitchell LGA 44,882 91,830 47,948 104.6%

Victoria 6,323,606 8,298,926 1,975,320 31.2%

Source: Forecast.id

3.1.3 Industry composition (GVA) of Mitchell compared to Victoria

Wallan comprises approximately 20% of the population of the Mitchell region; as such, its industry composition is slightly different to the average for the area. However, as the largest town in the region by population, it is likely to be closest to the average. Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the value of industry production. It is used to measure the contribution of specific sectors to GRP.

Table 3-4 shows that public administration & safety, rental, hiring & real estate services, and construction are the largest contributors to Mitchell’s GRP. In total, they contribute 51% of the region’s total GVA. In comparison, these sectors constitute 27% of Victoria’s total GVA.

Sectors such as manufacturing and retail trade are dependent on a developed transport infrastructure system to ensure the efficient movement of production inputs and goods. While Mitchell itself has a smaller transport, postal & warehousing sector than average for the state, the Northern Highway and Hume Freeway are important links for interstate and intrastate freight and logistics movements. In addition, the BIFT major intermodal freight terminal is planned for construction in or near Wallan in the future.

6 https://forecast.id.com.au/mitchell/about-forecast-areas?WebID=160 - Wallan https://forecast.id.com.au/mitchell/about-forecast-areas?WebID=100 - Beveridge

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Table 3-4 Gross Value Added ($bn) by Industry (Dec 2017)

Industry Wallan Wallan % Victoria Victoria %

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing $67.62 4.10% $8,159.65 2.10%

Mining $5.00 0.30% $3,448.96 0.90%

Manufacturing $91.49 5.50% $28,490.07 7.50%

Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services $29.02 1.70% $11,816.67 3.10%

Construction $218.34 13.10% $31,599.24 8.30%

Wholesale Trade $29.92 1.80% $16,025.36 4.20%

Retail Trade $70.91 4.30% $18,769.02 4.90%

Accommodation & Food Services $57.97 3.50% $10,576.81 2.80%

Transport, Postal & Warehousing $55.60 3.30% $19,225.10 5.10%

Information Media & Telecommunications $11.72 0.70% $12,933.48 3.40%

Financial & Insurance Services $55.87 3.40% $42,506.89 11.20%

Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services $263.30 15.90% $52,719.56 13.90%

Professional, Scientific & Technical $42.80 2.60% $27,910.04 7.30% Services

Administrative & Support Services $32.96 2.00% $13,346.44 3.50%

Public Administration & Safety $365.33 22.00% $18,102.81 4.80%

Education & Training $111.02 6.70% $23,238.14 6.10%

Health Care & Social Assistance $116.16 7.00% $29,779.85 7.80%

Arts & Recreation Services $11.10 0.70% $3,943.87 1.00%

Other Services $24.32 1.50% $7,189.83 1.90%

Total $1,660.45 100% $379,781.76 100%

Source: Latest REMPLAN data, June 2018

3.1.4 Business counts and business size

The ABS collects and reports the number and size of businesses annually. Local business and industry data for Mitchell is shown in Table 3-5. This is the area that would be most likely to provide local resources to the project. Wallan reflects the characteristics of the region, being made up primarily of small employers. At June 2017, the number of businesses operating in the combined area was 2,933 and of these businesses 99% were small businesses employing less than 20 people.

Over 60% of registered businesses are non-employing (i.e. sole proprietors, or partnerships without employees). Only 1% of businesses in the region employ more than 20 employees, with none employing more than 200. The data suggests there are a small number of manufacturing and construction companies of a reasonable size (which employ five or more staff) that may be able to provide skills and equipment relevant to the project.

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The greatest number of registered businesses is represented by construction (26.4%), agriculture, forestry & fishing (11.8%) and transport, postal & warehousing (10.2%). The disparity in number of businesses versus contribution to GRP suggests that the majority of these businesses have very small turnover. Only 8% of businesses are in sectors that are more reliant on passing trade (retail trade and accommodation & food services).

Table 3-5 Registered businesses and local jobs in Mitchell (2017)

Do not employ 1-19 staff 20-199 staff 20-199 staff Industry Total staff employed employed employed

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 263 79 3 0 346

Mining 4 0 0 0 5

Manufacturing 76 69 8 0 150

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 11 3 0 0 15

Construction 439 328 5 0 773

Wholesale Trade 54 26 3 0 81

Retail Trade 77 85 3 0 162

Accommodation and Food Services 24 65 3 0 95

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 174 127 0 0 300

Information Media and Telecommunications 9 5 0 0 13

Financial and Insurance Services 121 20 0 0 139

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 171 31 0 0 203

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 111 85 0 0 190

Administrative and Support Services 45 36 0 0 87

Public Administration and Safety 9 4 0 0 13

Education and Training 15 20 3 0 38

Health Care and Social Assistance 45 36 3 0 86

Arts and Recreation Services 22 12 0 0 32

Other Services 73 93 0 0 166

Unknown 33 5 0 0 39

Total 1,776 1,129 31 0 2,933

Source: ABS Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, 2013 to 2017, Cat. No. 8165.0

3.1.5 Freight sector

While the data shows that the transportation, postal and warehousing sector (the key direct freight sector, according to ABS) is not dominant within Mitchell, it still accounts for 10% of employment. Sectors such as manufacturing and retail trade benefit from enhanced transport infrastructure that facilitates quicker (and therefore cheaper) supply chains.

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Wallan’s proximity to the junction of two major freight routes makes it more susceptible to high levels of heavy vehicle volume. The Northern Highway passes directly through its centre, whilst the Hume Freeway, the principal freight route between Melbourne and Sydney lies only 1 kilometre east of the township. At present, large freight vehicles result in long queuing along the Northern Highway south of Wallan during the evening peak, and the queue has been observed to extend back on to the slow lane of the Hume Freeway.7 Traffic congestion is considered an impediment to the town’s development.

The North Growth Corridor Plan recognises the potential for additional access onto the Hume Freeway, north and south of the Outer Metropolitan Ring Road. There is a need to ensure that this important national freight route does not become congested with local traffic, but also to provide additional access to the freeway to serve the new homes and jobs proposed.

The existing Watson Street bridge overpass was recently found unsuitable under current SM1600 loading requirements, including availability to High Productivity Freight Vehicles (HPFVs).8 Although there is not a current requirement for HPFVs to access the bridge, the interchange will provide a key access function for the proposed BIFT. Therefore, the replacement or strengthening of this bridge as proposed in the business case is required to accommodate future freight demand. The upgrade of the overpass will improve accessibility between Wallan and East Wallan for movement of freight and workers.

3.1.6 Tourism economy

Tourism in Mitchell Shire is below average for the Hume region and Victoria; the sector is estimated to generate 3.2% of total regional output as of 2016, compared to the wider Hume region which accounts for 6.2% of total output. It is estimated that in 2016, 6.6% of all jobs in Mitchell serviced demand driven by tourists. Tourism accounted for 11.0% of jobs in the wider Hume Region in 2016.9

Wallan serves as a gateway to the Hume region and the Goulburn river in terms of tourism, but Wallan itself is lacking in tourist attractions. A purpose-built, accredited Visitor Information Centre was planned for the town in the Mitchell Shire Council Tourism Strategy 2010-15, but has not been constructed to date. As there is no local public or private tourism promotion group, detailed figures for the sector are currently unavailable.

The Wallan Olde Time Market is held on a monthly basis in Hadfield Park,10 and draws a significant number of day trip tourists to the town. Discussion with Council indicates that these tourists are low-value, limiting their purchases to the market itself.

3.2 Workforce participation and employment

3.2.1 Industries of employment by numbers

Based on ABS Census data, in 2016 the following industries were dominant employers in Wallan: • Construction (12.1%) • Retail Trade (10.6%) • Health Care and Social Assistance (10.3%)

Compare to Victoria, where the industries of greatest employment are health care & social assistance (13.1%), retail trade (10.8%) and education & training (9.1%).

7 Traffic counts provided by VicRoads 8 Wallan Area Network Improvements Interchange Upgrade & Watson Street Duplication, Business Case Submissions, VicRoads 2018 9 Mitchell Shire Council Economic and Investment Profile 2018 – REMPLAN, 2018, pp. 22-25 10 http://www.wallanoldetimemarkets.com/

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Construction, retail trade and health care & social assistance constitute 33% of workers in Wallan, compared to 32.6% of workers in Victoria. In total, retail and accommodation & food services, the sectors most reliant on passing traffic, employ 16.6% of the workforce.

The distribution of workers does not closely match the Wallan GVA distribution, which suggests relatively high GVA per worker values for sectors such as agriculture, forestry & fishing, transport, postal & warehousing, and manufacturing; that is, these sectors produce more economic benefit per worker than the industries that employ the most workers.

3.2.2 Workforce participation and unemployment rates

In 2016, Wallan region had relatively high rates of labour force participation compared with Victoria. Approximately 65.4% of the working aged population participated in the workforce (refer Table 3-6) compared with 62.2% in Victoria. The unemployment rate is slightly higher than the average for the Mitchell area, but the labour force participation rate is also higher. Employment and participation are both higher than the state average.

Table 3-6 Labour Force 2016

Labour force participation Location Employed Unemployed rate

Wallan 5,188 332 (6.0%) 65.4%

Mitchell 18,407 1,112 (5.7%) 60.1%

Victoria 2,736,127 193,465 (6.6%) 62.2%

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2016

3.2.3 Occupation types

Technicians and trade workers are the most common employment type in Wallan (18.7%), followed by clerical and administrative work (15.8%) and professionals (12%). The proportion of skilled workers (managers, professionals and technicians/trade workers) is slightly lower than the Victorian average of 49% at 40.6%.

3.2.4 Locations of employment

Workplace data from the 2016 census is disaggregated to the LGA level. Overall, over 70% of Mitchell residents are employed in the Mitchell area, or the neighbouring LGAs of Hume and Whittlesea, indicating that the area is relatively self-sufficient in terms of employment distribution. To maintain this distribution, infrastructure capacity to support the rapidly growing population will be required over the next 20 years. Employment growth that is planned as part of the PSPs will provide jobs further to the south, these will also need to be supported by robust infrastructure that both services and bypasses Wallan.

Table 3-7 Employment locations

LGA of Usual Work Jobs Percentage

Mitchell (S) 8,024 46.4%

Hume (C) 2,806 16.2%

Whittlesea (C) 1,476 8.5%

Melbourne (C) 1,419 8.2%

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2016

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3.2.5 Household income

Wallan and the Mitchell region both had lower proportions of low income households (less than $600 per week) and higher proportions of high income households (more than $2,000 per week) compared with Victoria. Higher household incomes in the region may reflect the high workforce participation rates and greater employment in industries with relatively high wage rates (e.g. construction).

While personal incomes are lower than the Victorian average, household incomes are above the Victorian average. This may reflect the area’s demographics, e.g. a lot of young singles may be living alone.

Table 3-8 Personal and household incomes (per week), 2016

Personal income Household income

Less than $650 per More than $2,000 per Less than $650 per More than $2,000 per Location week week week week

Wallan 30.1% 4.8% 11.0% 32.1%

Mitchell 44.4% 4.6% 16.7% 27.7%

Victoria 45.9% 7.5% 23.1% 23.9%

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2016

3.3 Summary

The rapidly growing population in the Wallan area will continue to create further demand for the local transport network. Further investment into transport infrastructure is needed to reduce transportation costs and improve amenity in surrounding areas.

The statistics show that Wallan is an economically thriving area, with population growth above that of the region and the state, and this trend is predicted to continue over the next 30 years. The labour force participation rate is high, indicating a young and skilled population, reflected in the low unemployment rate versus the Victorian average. Supporting infrastructure is required to ensure that employment opportunities are available for the growing population.

Construction, retail trade and health care & social assistance are dominant employers in Wallan. These sectors are all dependent on a developed transport system that can efficiently transport goods and people and that also improves amenity in key precincts, and retail jobs are partly supported by demand created by through traffic in the town. Tourism does not play a significant role in the region.

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Table 3-9 Summary of economic and demographic data

Criteria Wallan Mitchell Victoria

GRP change% (2016-17) N/A 24.5% 12.8%

Population growth% (2011-16) 57.7% 18.1% 10.6%

Forecast population growth% (2018-36) 145.9% 104.6% 31.2%

Unemployment rate (2016) 6.0% 5.7% 6.6%

Labour force participation rate (2016) 65.4% 60.1% 62.2%

Personal income >$2,000/week (2016, %) 4.8% 4.6% 7.5%

Household income <$650/week (2016, %) 11.0% 16.7% 23.1%

Household income >$2,000/week (2016, %) 32.1% 27.7% 23.9%

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4. Discussion

4.1 Areas of note

The areas of greatest impact have been identified through discussion with Council, VicRoads, and examination of the site maps. Due to the pre-existing development pattern of the Wallan area, the majority of businesses and other relevant sites directly impacted by the project are located along Watson Street, to the west of Windham Street.

4.1.1 Wallan Southern Gateway Precinct

The western section of the Watson Street project impinges on the northern section of the Wallan Southern Gateway precinct, which is situated on both sides of High Street between Watson Street and Duke Street.11 The project runs directly through High Street, and impacts both intersections.

Figure 4-1 Wallan Southern Gateway Precinct

Source: Wallan Masterplan and UDF, Figure 68

The large lot at the north of the section bordering Watson Street and Wellington Street is noted as a ‘Key Development Site’ in the Town Centre Masterplan, and a commercial structure of three to five storeys is a mandatory design objective to maximise the value of the development.

11 Wallan Masterplan and UDF, p. 92

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Consultation with Council indicates that the owner of the lot has been amenable to partial acquisition of undeveloped land for previous projects, and early engagement is recommended to minimise delays in the project timeline. Assuming that after partial acquisition, the lot remains of sufficient size to support the recommended development, the project should provide improved access to a future site.

Wallan Secondary College constitutes the entire eastern side of the precinct. While the project does not impact on the main buildings of the school, the proposed PAO overlaps two buildings belonging to the school at the corner of Northern Highway and Watson Street, of which one is the headquarters of the Central Ranges Local Learning and Employment Network (LLEN). Stakeholder engagement with the school is recommended to establish the potential impact on their operations and a mitigation strategy.

4.1.2 Hadfield Park

Hadfield Park is situated between the Northern Highway/High Street and Windham Street, and forms the Leisure and Community precinct of the Masterplan. The Wallan CFA and police station are located in the southeast corner of the park, on the intersection of Watson Street and Windham Street.

Figure 4-2 Wallan Leisure and Community Precinct

Source: Wallan Masterplan and UDF, Figure 64

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The CFA building is set back from the road, and the proposed overlay does not require its acquisition. However, stakeholder engagement is recommended to ensure that access is maintained during both the construction and operation phases of the project. The recently constructed police station is set close to the street, and the proposed corridor is very close to the building itself.

As previously discussed, the monthly Wallan Olde Time Market attracts tourists to the town. However, Council indicates that these tourists are low-value, only visiting for the day and limiting purchases to the market itself. This adds little tourism value to the economy due to the lack of overnight stays and restaurant and activity expenditure.

These day visitors also present an issue of unofficial car parking in the park itself and the grounds of the secondary school to the south, as the provision of official parking in the vicinity is limited. It was noted that parking demand does not overflow at any other time of the month under current conditions; however, the project presents a potential opportunity to provide additional parking to meet future demand.

4.1.3 Beveridge Intermodal Freight Terminal

The Watson Street bridge overpass will provide a key access function for the proposed Beveridge Intermodal Freight Terminal (BIFT). Although its timing is unclear at present, Wallan is in a prime location to take advantage of the close proximity of the site which will be located to make effective use of the Melbourne-Sydney rail line.

In addition to the provision of freight handling between road, rail and port, the BIFT would potentially support several industries such as freight logistics, warehousing, truck sales and servicing. The BIFT will also have rail and road connections to the future Outer Metropolitan Ring Road and E6. Watson Street is expected to serve as a key access point for the BIFT.

Council’s Wallan Structure Plan (2015), recently implemented into the planning scheme, shows the BIFT as a section of land to the east of Wallan, and a large area of industrial land to support it.12 However, Plan Melbourne indicates that the project will be further south in the Northern Freight PSP. The Victorian Freight Plan: Delivering the Goods (2018) confirms the existence of the BIFT, but not its exact location or timeline for its construction. VPA suggests that there is a recent political impetus to bring forward the development timeline, but a response to requests for information from DEDJTR is pending.

Increasing property value in East Wallan may force residential development in the area, driving the BIFT site further south. Discussion with Beveridge Williams, the land use consultant for the project, suggests that developers are already purchasing land to this end. Beveridge Williams is currently checking on the existence of any pre-existing planning applications in the industrial land zone between Wallan railway station and Hume Freeway.

4.1.4 Proposed North Central Quarry

Conundrum Holdings Pty Ltd has proposed a quarry to be constructed at 175 Northern Highway, Wallan. It will be situated on the north-eastern corner of the Beveridge North West PSP (adjacent to the Hume Freeway/Northern Highway diverge). The quarry is accounted for in the PSP, as the developer consulted with the VPA during the drafting of the initial plan.

If constructed, North Central Quarry would be the only hard rock quarry within the Northern Growth Corridor. The planning application indicates that traffic from the quarry would use the Northern Highway and the ‘principle freight network’ in the area. As such, it would be a key contributor to freight traffic in the Wallan area.

12 Wallan Structure Plan Part A, Figure 04. Corridor Context Plan

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Figure 4-3 Proposed North Central Quarry

Source: Mitchell Shire Council, Works Authority 1473

The quarry has an approved works authority (WA 1473) but has not received planning approval. A planning application was rejected by Council in 2016, and VPA has indicated that a new application is currently being drafted.

4.2 Aggregate economic impacts

The impact of the project on travel times and freight movements in particular is recorded in a separate cost- benefit analysis, the results of which are shown in the business case.

Based on the statistics in Section 3, the options proposed for the project will have a positive economic impact in the Wallan area. This is predominantly associated with an increased short-term building, construction and labour increase over the delivery period.

The local construction and consultancy industries do not have the capacity to absorb and undertake the construction of the project scope, so a large portion of the benefits will apply at the state and national levels.

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The input multiplier (total value added to the economy per dollar spent) of construction spending for Australian projects is estimated at approximately 2.25, based on the latest available input-output data from ABS. As such, the project will generate a significant economic output.

The benefits that will accrue to the local market is dependent on the proportion of the construction supply chain that is present in the region. Basic and fabricated metals, other non-metallic minerals and renting of machinery and equipment are the most important industries in the supply chain.

4.2.1 Employment impacts

At the desktop level, there is only sufficient data to estimate the high-level employment impacts from the construction of the project itself. However, the infrastructure will support developments that will in turn create further employment, particularly in relation to housing, services and freight.

The initial multiplier effect suggests that every $1 million spent on asset funding creates an average of 3.3 full- time equivalent jobs in construction.13 As such, the project is estimated to create 252 construction jobs over its lifetime, based on the costing provided by VicRoads.

Table 4-1 Employment impacts

Project Case

Economic Impact $76.5m

Jobs created (FTEs) 252

4.2.2 Qualitative impacts

As of June 2017, Wallan has consistently had the highest median house prices in the Mitchell area since 2001.14 Discussions with Council indicate that house and land prices have increased above trend over the previous year, and developers are buying up land in the area for further construction. Improved access to Melbourne will increase these prices further.

The project will also provide opportunities that cannot be quantified at this stage of the project. For example, improved employment and labour market participation in Wallan through improved access to job opportunities in other parts of the region.

Regarding tourism, travel times will improve with the project. This positive outcome would benefit most visitors as they tend to fully rely on road transport to access the Hume region.

The impacts on individual business that rely, to some extent, on through traffic (such as motels, caravan camps, petrol stations and food service outlets) are not readily identifiable due to the particular trading features that characterise each of these individual businesses. However, no existing commercial business should lose trade from the project. As capacity will increase due to the project, these businesses are likely to see an increase in footfall, leading to greater revenue.

The increase in through traffic, particularly freight, is likely to decrease amenity levels in Wallan, which has negative impacts on tourism and related sectors. As Wallan is not a key tourist destination and no official plans exist to increase its market share in this area, this is a minor detriment.

13 The Construction Industry’s Linkages with the Economy – ABS 2007 14 Mitchell Shire Council Economic and Investment Profile 2018 – REMPLAN, 2018, p. 35

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5. Legislation and Policy

5.1 State level

Transport Integration Act 2010

Key aims of the Transport Integration Act 2010 include: • Facilitate access to social and economic opportunities to support individual and community wellbeing • Facilitate economic prosperity • Environmental sustainability • Integration of transport and land use • Efficiency, coordination and reliability • Safety and health and wellbeing

Network improvements are likely to result in a safer and more connected community, and provide greater and equitable access for different road users. The region will become a more attractive place to live and work for locals, whilst others may be more likely to move to and/or invest in the region. It would enable more efficient and effective access to employment and services and for goods transport. They will also result in road user travel time savings and reduced vehicle operating costs, based on modelling results.

The project is considered an important enabler to assist the activation of Wallan. The supporting infrastructure is imperative to the future planning and land use associated with Wallan, and provides greater planning certainty. It will facilitate more efficient and reliable movements of persons and goods at all times.

Victoria – The Freight State DTPLI 2013

The key aims of this policy include: • Long term strategy to improve efficient freight movement • Grow productivity and better local, national or international connections • Victoria’s freight task anticipated to triple between now and 2050

When completed, the project will make significant contributions toward the efficiency, productivity and safety of the principal road corridor in the Hume Freeway along with the Northern Highway.

Regional Network Development Plan - Victorian Government 2016

Goals of the RNDP include: • Building a better public transport network • Putting passengers first • Developing local transport solutions

Watson Street is part or the principal public transport network and provides the only access to the Wallan train station. The upgrade will provide improved access and more reliable connections between bus and train services.

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VicRoads Corporate Plan 2016-2020

VicRoads longer term objectives for journeys include: • Maximise access to residences, employment, markets, services and recreation • Minimise barriers to access to the transport system • Facilitate seamless travel within and between different modes

VicRoads shorter term objectives include: • Deliver more predictable journeys for customers.

Reduced congestion will improve the efficiency of journeys in and around Wallan; improve access to employment and services outside of Wallan; reduce barriers to accessing the Hume Freeway and facilitate seamless travel for vehicles. The project will also improve the predictability of journeys in Mitchell Shire.

Plan Melbourne 2017-2050 - Victorian Government 2017

Plan Melbourne is a long-term plan to accommodate Melbourne’s future growth in population and employment. The Wallan township is located within the northern subregion, which relates to the North Growth Corridor Plan.

According to the report, space in the inner parts of Melbourne is at a premium. Properties are becoming increasingly unaffordable for young buyers. The outer areas of Melbourne offer an alternative, and as they accommodate a growing population, they too require an upgrade of their infrastructure as part of a sustainable solution. Despite its distance from the more populous areas of Melbourne, these communities require the same level of service. The project plays an important role in keeping Wallan attractive to current and prospective residents and businesses.

Growth Corridor Plans: Managing Melbourne’s Growth – Growth Areas Authority (VPA) 2012

The Growth Corridor Plans (GCPs) provide a framework to guide the planning of new communities in each of the growth corridors. Developed and completed over 18 months, the Growth Corridor Plans will help deliver sophisticated new suburbs with great town centres, attractive and affordable housing and jobs close to home.

The Northern GCP will accommodate an additional 260,000 or more people and have the capacity to accommodate at least 83,000 jobs. The plan recognises the potential for additional access onto the Hume Freeway, north and south of the Outer Metropolitan Ring Road. There is a need to ensure that this important national freight route does not become congested with local traffic, but also to provide some additional access to the Freeway to serve the new homes and jobs proposed.

Wallan will require good transport connections to the services and facilities planned in the North Growth Corridor. Additional arterial road connections are identified that would link Wallan and the growth corridor, in addition to the existing Hume Freeway and Northern Highway

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Planning Policy Framework (PPF) DELWP 2018

Relevant objectives include creating a safe and sustainable transport system by integrating land use and transport, and managing the road system to achieve integration, choice and balance by developing an efficient and safe network and making the most of existing infrastructure.

The project will provide additional capacity along Watson Street, improve entry and egress to and from the Hume Freeway, improve safety, and make road corridors more available to future upgrades and enhancements. Mitchell’s Council Planning Scheme is pending translation to the Planning Policy Framework as of February 2020.

Toward Zero 2016-2020 – Victorian Government 2016

Towards Zero refers to the five-year strategy, whereby the State Government will invest over $1bn to make Victorian roads safer. At the end of the five-year period, the State expects to see the number of road fatalities to fall below 200 a year, and aims to reduce serious injuries by 15%.

The Strategy seeks to achieve its target through several actions, including: • Safer roads – addresses deficiencies in our roads, through targeted treatments and upgrades to road infrastructure • Safer speeds – assigning appropriate speed limits consistent with design standards and the road environment • Safer vehicles – ensuring vehicles are maintained properly, tested and consist at least the legal minimum acceptable safety features • Safer road users – ensuring people receive adequate driving training, experience and education. Drivers should be well aware and practice safe driving particularly in regards to speeding, alcohol and drugs and use of devices

The project satisfies the actions of safer roads and safer speed. This will be achieved through the introduction of treatments to separate opposing traffic movements, improve the operation and function of key intersections, and safer access from and into adjoining land uses.

5.2 Local level

The Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities 2010 – 2020

The Lower Hume sub-region has a substantial local economy with the Shire of Mitchell producing close to $25 million in agricultural products annually. Population growth has largely been the result of major residential development in the Shire’s south, particularly at Kilmore and Wallan.

Two major transport corridors, the Hume and Goulburn Valley transport corridors, serve the region as well as the Northern Highway.

The project satisfies two of the strategy’s key directions: • Enhancing integrated planning for mobility; “Develop road transport plans to address the expected increase in population in Lower Hume due to growth pressures from the expansion of metropolitan Melbourne.” • Developing a proficient land transportation network; “Plan to duplicate the Northern Highway south of Kilmore.”

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Top Advocacy Priorities for the Mitchell Community - Mitchell Shire Council 2014

This document outlines the key priority advocacy issues for Mitchell Shire Council. The document explicitly lists the “construction of a full diamond interchange at the intersection of the Hume Freeway and the Wallan- Whittlesea Road, Wallan and arterial roads to service growth areas and the improvement, duplicating and widening of arterials in established areas” as a priority set of projects.

Wallan Structure Plan - Mitchell Shire Council 2015

A clear framework for the future growth from a town around 10,000 people to approximately 50,000. The document comments on the challenges associated with current barriers that result from the operation and function of key road corridors namely the Hume Freeway and Northern Highway. The project will be instrumental in the removal of current barriers and operating issues and will also provide the road network capacity much needed to accommodate the growth of Wallan.

The plan shows the BIFT as a section of land to the east of Wallan, and a large area of industrial land to support it.

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6. Mitigation Measures

6.1 Pre-construction

Due to the desktop nature of this study, mitigation measures for the pre-construction phase of the project will primarily be resolved by stakeholder engagement. As the project in its current form impinges on their premises, Wallan Police Station and Wallan Secondary College should be engaged early and often to ensure that the impact on their operations is minimal. Wallan CFA is also very close to the road reserve and may be directly impacted. Ongoing consultation is maintained with the Wallan Police Station and the Wallan Secondary College. A close collaboration relationship was established since 2018. The discussions will be regularly conducted over the life of the planning investigations and the pre-construction phases of the projects.

VicRoads has advised that DHHS and DET have agreed to relocate the community-based activities temporarily conducted in these buildings to a future business precinct or another location. Advice was sent to invest in equipment that can be used in another future location rather than structural improvements of the buildings that are currently not compliant with regulations compatible with permanent use for after school hours support activities. Compensation details are to be finalised at a pre-construction stage with in-principle support confirmed from the Department of Transport.

6.2 During construction

The maintenance of access to businesses whose primary access points will be impacted by construction works is the key mitigation during this stage. These include: • Aldi Wallan, 13 High Street • United Petroleum Garage, 11 High Street • Wallan CFA, 96-98 Watson Street • Wallan Police Station, 100 Watson Street • Wallan Secondary College, Central Ranges LLEN Building, 93 Watson St While the Aldi supermarket can be accessed via Wellington Street, the adjacent United Petroleum Garage only has access to the Northern Highway. As such, works should be timed to minimise impacts to the service station, and an alternative temporary access should be put in place if required. No other businesses are expected to suffer temporary or permanent severance due to the project.

6.3 Post construction

Post construction impacts on individual business that rely, on through traffic are not readily identifiable as established in section 4.3.2. However, as the project does not reduce through traffic, cause severance or require acquisitions, no existing commercial business should lose trade from the project.

Increasing through traffic, particularly freight, will decrease amenity with corresponding impacts on tourism and related sectors. Though Wallan is not a key tourist destination and no known plans exist to increase its market share, these impacts can be offset by other amenity increasing works.

Al fresco dining is an example of an activity (or business offering) which currently has limited appeal in the highway corridor due to the adverse amenity impacts associated with through traffic; however, this type of business may increase in prevalence if the pedestrian and on-street environment is improved and enhanced with appropriate attention to landscaping and other potential works that build on developing a ‘sense of place’ in the centre and Wallan’s overall highway corridor.

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7. Conclusions

This report presents an assessment of the business impacts of the Wallan Area Network Improvements. The project is consistent with relevant economic policy at the regional and state level. The project would enable greater capacity needed to support planned developments of importance at the local and regional levels.

At the macro level, Wallan is one of the fastest growing areas in Victoria in terms of many economic indicators, including population and GRP, and is projected to continue this trajectory over the next 20 years due to its location in relation to Melbourne.

Mitchell and Wallan in particular are characterised by strong population growth, high levels of employment and above average household incomes. The rapidly growing population in the area will continue to create further demand for the local transport network. Further investment into transport infrastructure may be needed to reduce transportation costs and improve amenity in surrounding areas. Large freight and residential traffic increases are both expected; while the timeline is nebulous for local freight increases, it is guaranteed to remain a key freight corridor for Melbourne

In conjunction with PSP developments, the WANI would provide infrastructure support for the establishment of the area as well as potentially provide job opportunities in what would be a substantial construction exercise.

Public administration & safety, rental, hiring & real estate services, and construction are the largest contributors to Mitchell’s GRP. In terms of employment, construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance were dominant employers in Wallan. Tourism does not currently play a significant role in the region.

Improvements to the Hume Freeway interchange will impact on the East Wallan PSP; freight traffic will be a priority in this area due to the future BIFT in the Northern Freight PSP, but new housing developments will cause a large increase in residential traffic. Improvements to footpaths along Watson Street will improve access to Wallan railway station in the east via active modes, potentially increasing patronage.

7.1 Recommendations

VicRoads has been working with Mitchell Shire Council and VPA to ensure that the improvements harmonise with the Wallan Masterplan and surrounding PSPs. This engagement should continue through the project lifecycle. The project will provide an improved linkage between Wallan and East Wallan, which can be improved upon by the provision of active transport along Watson Street. Landowners who are likely to be affected by the alignment should be consulted by VicRoads to ensure that impacts are minimised. Those owners who are affected by partial or full acquisition will need to be consulted by VicRoads to establish case-specific mitigations. For businesses that are unaffected by land acquisition, continued provision of access and communication with landowners is the only required mitigation during construction.

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VicRoads should consult with owners regarding potential mitigations and trade-offs, consider early purchase applications, request to buy entire lots if making business unviable, and adjust the alignment to avoid major businesses where possible.

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8. Glossary of Terms

Term Definition

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

BIFT Beveridge Intermodal Freight Terminal

CFA Country Fire Authority

FTE Full-Time Equivalent

HPFV High Productivity Freight Vehicle

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GRP Gross Regional Product

GVA Gross Value Added

LGA Local Government Area

LLEN Local Learning and Education Network

NDA Net Developable Area

PAO Public Acquisition Overlay

PSP Precinct Structure Plan

SPPF State Policy and Planning Framework

SSC State Suburb Code

UGB Urban Growth Boundary

VPA Victorian Planning Authority

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9. References

ABS 2016 Census data: http://www.abs.gov.au/census forecast.id – Mitchell Shire and subareas: https://forecast.id.com.au/mitchell/

Mitchell Shire Council Economic and Investment Profile 2018 – REMPLAN, 2018

Northern Growth Corridor Potential Development Sequencing – Patch Design/Mitchell Shire Council, April 2016

REMPLAN Statistics – Mitchell Shire: https://www.remplanlogin.com.au/economy/

Wallan Town Centre Masterplan and UDF: https://engagingmitchellshire.com/wallantowncentreplan

9.1 Policy Documents

Growth Corridor Plans: Managing Melbourne’s Growth – Growth Areas Authority (VPA) 2012

Plan Melbourne 2017-2050 - Victorian Government 2017

Regional Network Development Plan - Victorian Government 2016

State Planning Policy Framework (SPPF) - DELWP 2016

The Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities 2010 – 2020

Top Advocacy Priorities for the Mitchell Community - Mitchell Shire Council 2014

Toward Zero 2016-2020 – Victorian Government 2016

Transport Integration Act 2010

VicRoads Corporate Plan 2016-2020

Victoria – The Freight State DTPLI 2013

Wallan Structure Plan - Mitchell Shire Council 2015

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Appendix A. Assignment Brief

Task Plan: Economic impacts on existing land uses and key industries This task plan covers the economic impact analysis activities associated with the preparation of a Planning Study and informing a future Planning Scheme Amendment. The regional economic assessment report would cover an outline of existing conditions, qualitative description of expected direct and indirect economic impacts at a regional level and on particular industries and businesses, as well as management and mitigation measures for these impacts. Scope: Feasibility stage This involves a desktop study of the economic impacts of proposed route options. Desktop study The desktop study will identify existing conditions for the study area being considered. Key tasks will include: • Determining the economic baseline for the study area – gross regional product and value added, household income, labour force, employment and key industries’ size, revenue and future economic prospects • Assessing the revenue prospects for the area in the base (do nothing scenario) • Identifying the direct, indirect, consequential and cumulative economic impacts of the different route options such as loss of revenue, land acquisition, falls in property values, constraints on activities, and access impacts • Assessing and proposing measures to avoid impacts to affected businesses or compensation and mitigation required to address the impacts • Assessing economic impact risks before, during planning, construction and operation, and proposed mitigations to avoid delay and cost escalation Our analysis of key economic impacts will build on relevant previous analysis, such as documentation on the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass and the Northern Highway Duplication Study, as well as field verification. This analysis feeds into the wider tasks of the feasibility stage as follows: Task 1: Review existing information We will: • Review existing regional economy / business and tourism information from relevant databases and information sources. As part of this assessment, any existing precent structure plans (PSPs) including reporting will be considered • Prepare a map of the study area, clearly showing regional economy / business and tourism enterprises in relation to the proposed corridors • Identify the state and local government planning strategies and policies relevant to regional economy/business and tourism activities in the study area Task 2: Provide a broad overview and identify constraints In conjunction with the Mitchell Shire Council economic development unit, we will analyse: • Regional economy / business and tourism issues • The size and value of businesses and the tourism industry in the region • Identify any constraints within the planning study area Task 3: Assess possible impacts and benefits

Regional Economic Assessment

We will identify and assess the possible impacts and benefits that the project would have on the following businesses: • Highway dependent businesses • Retail and commercial sales • Industry • Tourism dependent businesses including hotel/motel, caravan parks, and tourist attractions Task 4: Identify potential mitigation measures For each of the possible impacts on regional economy / business and tourism enterprises identified through the above tasks, we will recommend potential mitigation measures that would minimise each impact. Task 5: Reporting We will provide a report detailing the results of the above tasks, in alignment with the standards outlined in the tender document. Task 6: Attendance at meetings Jacobs shall attend meetings as required by the client, subject to agreement. These are expected to include: • An inception meeting with VicRoads on-site • A meeting with VicRoads to discuss the contents of the Provider’s draft report at VicRoads Bendigo office • Two contract progress meetings with VicRoads at VicRoads Bendigo office Task 7: Submissions review Jacobs will conduct a review up to 12 relevant submissions received during / after public exhibition of the PSA documentation and prepare appropriate responses, in consultation with VicRoads. Key inputs: • Stakeholder engagement information • Spatial modelling • Cost estimates • Economy.id database • Australian Bureau of Statistics databases • PSP information • Previous documentation Assumptions and limitations: Publically available information from the ABS and other relevant sources. Information will be readily provided by the land use planner and social impact consultant. Key resources: • Deb Neumann (Project Director) • Matt De Marco (Project Manager) • Eoin Richardson (Technical Lead) Value Add: Our economists’ ability to work with various other specialists at Jacobs in identifying and assessing economic impacts will improve outcomes and mitigate time costs.

Regional Economic Assessment

Deliverables: Report The regional economy assessment report will include: • Map of the study area, clearly showing business enterprises in relation to the proposed route options • Overview of the regional economy, key industries, and an estimate of the size and value of businesses in the region • Identification of possible impacts on businesses from the different route options, with potential avoidance and mitigation measures for these • Identification of economic impact risks and potential mitigation measures for these Key outputs • Draft report structure • Draft report • Final report

Regional Economic Assessment

Appendix B. Current Concept Designs – Northern Highway