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[ SPECIAL REPORT

Strange Problems in the Wegman Report

A computer scientist discusses the roles of , conspiracies, anti- memes, and intense beliefs in a global-warming denying report.

JOHN R. MASHEY

Discovery of Plagiarism he high-profile “Wegman report” (Wegman et al. Canadian blogger “Deep Climate” un - 2006) strongly criticized the steeply rising “hockey covered plagiarism in the Wegman re - Tstick” temperature graph that was created by climate port in late 2009, accumulating ten pages scientists Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley, and Malcolm of near-verbatim material copied from paleoclimatologist and hockey-stick Hughes and later used in the United Nations Intergovern- coauthor Bradley and others, such as: mental Panel on ’s Third Assessment A cross section of most temperate (IPCC 2001). forest trees will show an alternation of lighter and darker bands, each of The Wegman report was prepared by which is usually continuous around a team led by statistician Edward Weg- the tree circumference. (Bradley 1999, 398) man of George Mason Uni versity at the A cross section of a temperate forest request of U.S. Representatives Joe Bar- tree shows variation of lighter and ton (Republican from Texas) and Ed darker bands that are usually contin- Whitfield (Republican from Tennessee), uous around the circumference of the both strong opponents of the scientific tree. (Wegman et al. 2006, 13) consensus about climate change. The term “coral” is generally applied The Wegman report, presented in to members of the order Scleractinia, 2006 at a hearing of a congressional sub- which have hard calcareous skeletons committee chaired by Whitfield, re - supporting softer tissues. . . . (Bradley peated numerous well-cataloged and 1999, 247) long-debunked anti-science assertions, The term “coral” refers to the biolog- especially those claiming a conspiracy ical order Scleractinia, which have John R. Mashey is a com- among climate scientists. Although rarely hard calcium-based skeletons sup- porting softer tissues. (Wegman et al. puter scientist whose ca- mentioned in peer-reviewed science pub- 2006, 15) reer has extended from lications, the report nevertheless imme- Bell Labs to the Silicon Val- diately became a major source for climate Deep Climate (2010a) posted the en- ley. Many of the wide vari- anti-science articles, blogs, op-eds, and tire ten pages using colored highlight- ety of scientists he has books. The report is also a key to Virginia ing that quickly shows the obvious cut- worked with have used software or hardware he Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s attack and-paste/edit process. helped create. For the past few years he has on the Uni versity of Virginia and Based on Deep Climate’s work, been studying climate science, anti-science, Michael Mann (Russell 2010). That cer- Brad ley filed a plagiarism complaint in and energy issues. tainly resembles a famous witch hunt March 2010 but kept it quiet. Bradley’s (Monty Python 1975). expert work was not only plagiarized

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but also often distorted to weaken or Climate anti-science beliefs are intense plagiarism, but those problems have even invert his own conclusions by peo- enough to generate frequent death grown ever since. Yet Barton still stands ple with zero relevant experience. I then threats against climate scientists. My behind the Wegman report. extended Deep Climate’s research and analysis documents the Wegman report Half of the report’s eighty references added much more in a comprehensive as filled with serious errors, biases, bad were uncited in the text itself, a tactic 250-page analysis of the Wegman re- science, and frequent repetition of long- called “bibliography padding” that is port, “Strange Scholarship in the Weg- debunked anti-science memes. Its min- frequently used by undergraduates to man Report: A Façade for the Climate imal statistics use another’s (incorrect) create an illusion of expertise. Many Anti-Science PR Cam paign” (Mashey computer code (Deep Climate 2010b). references use “grey literature” (not 2010b). USA Today (Vergano 2010a; The Wegman report was promoted peer-reviewed), including the key Vergano 2010b; Vergano 2010c; Vergano by Congressmen Barton and Whitfield source (“MM05x”) of many anti-sci- 2010d) reported that George Mason as “independent, impartial, expert” work ence memes. “MM05x” quotes an arti- University was investigating. Plagiarism by a team of “eminent statisticians.” It cle that appeared not in Science but in experts called the “obvious” was none of those things. Deep Climate the Journal of Scientific Explora tion,a and “shocking.” Some defenders created had unearthed plagiarism (not “expert”) favorite publication of pro-fringe-sci- their own fanciful definitions of the and distortion (not “impartial”), then ence researchers. It is filled with schol- word to deny that plagiarism had taken found that a Barton staffer provided arly looking papers on extrasensory place. Others contended that even if it was plagiarism, the Wegman report’s conclusions were still true. Then some claimed that Bradley himself was a pla- Half of the report’s eighty giarizer, blackmailer, or liar. The debate re mained intense. references were uncited in Pseudoscience, Anti-Science, and Intense Beliefs the text itself, a tactic called In pseudoscience, people promote long- “bibliography padding” that is debunked ideas as scientific (Mashey 2009). Anti-science obscures real science frequently used by via the public-relations and propaganda techniques that were well honed in the undergraduates to create tobacco wars and are sometimes em- ployed by the same people elsewhere an illusion of expertise. (Oreskes and Conway 2010). SI readers are familiar with chaotic, amateur, or amusing pseudoscience ef- forts. Anti-science, in contrast, is well much of the source material to the Weg- perception (ESP), UFOs, reincarnation, funded, professionally organized, and man team (not “independent”). In my inexplicable weight gain in suffocated not amusing: tobacco-industry anti-sci- initial investigation I found another sheep, dog astrology, and other fasci- ence has damaged the health of mil- twenty-five pages with plagiarism, to- nating topics. Most of its articles are lions. Although the Wegman report taling thirty-five when combined with available online (Society for Scien tific contained some pseudoscience, it was Deep Climate’s findings (Mashey Exploration 2010). Occa sionally proper really part of a well-organized twenty- 2010b). Originally intended to be a skeptical debunking papers do slip into year anti-science campaign (Mashey short report, my analysis grew to its print there. 2010a). That campaign offered much current 250 pages as interconnected The Wegman report also referenced evidence of a real conspiracy, in contrast problems in the Weg man report multi- a 1987 article, “Magnetics May Hold to the climate-science opponents’ un- plied. My analysis eventually examined Key to Ozone Layer Problems” by Tom supported claims alleging a conspiracy all ninety-one Weg man report pages Valentine. Its inclusion is ut terly bizarre, by climate researchers. Not all conspir- plus related testimony, publications, and especially in a report criticizing the qual- acies are imaginary—SI readers should actions. “Climategate” started big and ity of review elsewhere. A 1987 ozone assess the evidence before dismissing shrank, despite strong public-relations article was at best irrelevant bibliography conspiracy hypotheses. efforts. The problems with the Weg man padding. The publication in which Pseudoscience beliefs can be strong. report started small with a few pages of Valentine’s article appeared, MAGNETS

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[ SPECIAL REPORT

in Your Future, was an obscure fringe-sci- http://deepclimate.files.wordpress.com/ port plagiarized. USA Today (November 22). 2010/09/strange-scholarship-v1-02.pdf. Available online at www.usatoday.com/weat ence magazine. Valen tine often wrote on Monty Python. 1975. Monty Python and the Holy her/climate/globalwarming/2010-11-21-clim fuelless engines, psychic surgery, and con- Grail. “Witch Scene” available online at ate-report-questioned_N.htm. spiracy theories for the tabloid the Na- www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp_l5ntikaU. ———. 2010c. Climate science critic responds to Oreskes, Naomi, and Erik Conway. 2010. Mer- allegations. USA Today (November 23). Avail- tional Tattler. His bio stated that he was chants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists able online at www.usatoday.com/weather/cl the “Miracle editor.” Later his talk show Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke imate/globalwarming/2010-11-21-climate- often promoted “black helicopter” con- to Global Warming. New York: Bloomsbury report-questioned_N.htm. Press. ———. 2010d. Wegman report round-up. USA spiracies. Never the less, some people re- Russell, Wesley. 2010. RE: Civil Investigative De- Today (November 23). Available online at main unshakeably certain of the Wegman mand No. 3-MM. Available online at http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sci report’s credibility. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginia encefair/post/2010/11/wegman-report- politics/New Mann CID.PDF. round-up/1. A short article cannot convey the Vergano, Dan. 2010a. University investigating Wegman, Edward, David Scott, and Yasmin Said. pervasiveness and strangeness of prob- prominent climate science critic. USA Today 2006. Ad hoc committee report on the “hockey lems with the Wegman report. Skeptics (October 8). Available online at http://conte stick” global climate reconstruction. House En- nt.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/ ergy and Commerce Committee Republicans should read my long report to assess the post/2010/10/wegman-plagiarism-investigat (July 14). Available online at http://republicans claims made here. I expect to update ion-/1. .energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142 my online report (Mashey 2010b) in a ———. 2010b. Experts claim 2006 climate re - 006_Wegman_Report.pdf. few months and will be glad to be in- formed of any honest errors. n References Bradley, Raymond S. 1999. —Re- constructing Climates of the Quaternary, Sec- ond Edition. San Diego, CA: Academic Press/Elsevier. Where can you hear the leading voices of skepticism and science on a weekly Deep Climate. 2010a. Wegman report update, basis? On Point of Inquiry, the Center for Inquiry’s podcast and radio show, part 1: More dubious scholarship in full colour. Available online at http://deepclimate which is now one of the most popular science programs online. .org/2010/07/29/wegman-report-update- Listen for free at www.pointofinquiry.org today! part-1-more-dubious-scholarship-in-full- colour. (Deep Climate has made many posts, but this reference is a good starting point.) Each week, Point of Inquiry brings you incisive interviews, ———. 2010b. Replication and due diligence, Wegman style. Available online at http:// features, and commentary, focusing on the three research areas of the deepclimate.org/2010/11/16/replication- Center for Inquiry: pseudoscience and the paranormal; alternative medicine; and-due-diligence-wegman-style. and religion, ethics, and society. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Sci- entific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 In addition to new shows every Friday, the entire archive of past episodes to the Third IPCC Scientific Assess ment. Edited by J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, et al. can be accessed online at www.pointofinquiry.org. Cambridge University Press. Available online at www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index. Previous popular guests include: htm. Society for Scientific Exploration. 2010. Journal RICHARD DAWKINS | SAM HARRIS of Scientific Exploration past research articles. NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON | ANN DRUYAN Available online at http://www.scientificexpl oration.org/journal/articles.html. and many more! Mashey, John R. 2009. Science bypass: Anti-sci- ence petition to APS from folks with SEPP, Hosted by George C. Marshall Institute, Heartland, CATO. Available online at www.desmog blog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/ 2009 science bypass v3 0.pdf. ———. 2010a. Crescendo to Climategate ca- cophony: Behind the 2006 Wegman report and two decades of climate anti-science. Available online at www.desmogblog.com/ sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/crescendo Chris Mooney Robert M. Price Karen Stollznow climategate caco phony v1 0.pdf. ———. 2010b. Strange scholarship in the Weg- man report: A façade for the climate anti-sci- www.PointofInquiry.org ence PR campaign. Available online at

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