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Comparing the Success of Developing Professional Hockey Players from the CHL Drafts

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Comparing the Success of Developing Professional Hockey Players from the CHL Drafts Comparing the Success of Developing Professional Hockey Players from the CHL Drafts ADAM WEST & TJ MILLAR Bachelor’s Thesis Sports and Leisure Manage- ment, Vierumäki Campus 2019 Abstract April 23rd, 2019 Authors Adam West & TJ Millar Degree Program Sports and Leisure Management, Vierumäki Campus Thesis Title Number of pages and appendix pages Comparing the Success of Developing Professional Hockey Players from the CHL Drafts 34 + 55 The purpose of this study is to outline the differentiation of success of drafting and develop- ing Professional Hockey Players amongst the three Major Junior Leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) in the CHL. It analyzes three development leagues that help contribute to the Major Junior Rosters; The Alberta Midget Hockey League (AMHL), The Greater Toronto Minor Midget Hockey League (GTMMHL), and The Quebec Midget AAA Hockey league (QMAAA). The three Major Junior leagues select players for their teams via a drafting process. When players hit a certain age, they become eligible to be drafted, and teams select the players they believe are the best available to come play for their team. The OHL and the QMJHL draft their players after their 15-year-old season and are eligible to play for their respective clubs in their upcoming 16-year-old season. The Western Hockey league drafts players after their 14-year-old season but players cannot play for their teams until their 16-year-old season as well. Data was collected from the development leagues (AMHL, GTMMHL, QMAAA) over a 5- year period analyzing players selected in the 3 Major Junior drafts and determining if they: played in the CHL, were drafted to the NHL, played Professional Hockey, and if they played until the age of 20. Then an analysis of burnout and early sport specialization is conducted to investigate factors that could cause an effect in a player’s development. The data shows that players selected in the OHL and QMJHL Drafts are significantly more likely to play Professional Hockey opposed to players selected in the WHL Draft. The analy- sis of burnout and early sport specialization finds that the WHL drafting players after their 14- year-old season may be placing them in age inappropriate environments that could harm their participation and development in hockey. This study concludes that the OHL and QMJHL drafting method of selecting players after their 15-year-old season plays a significant role in producing Professional Hockey Players opposed to the WHL’s drafting method of selecting players after their 14-year-old season. Keywords CHL, WHL, OHL, QMJHL, Draft Age, Burnout, Early Specialization. Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 2 2 Drafting Processes in Sport ................................................................................................... 5 3 Predicting Hockey Success ................................................................................................... 6 4 Burnout ................................................................................................................................ 11 5 Early Specialization in Sport ................................................................................................ 14 6 Research Aims and Questions ............................................................................................ 17 7 Methods ............................................................................................................................... 18 7.1 Data Collection ..................................................................................................... 18 7.2 Statistical Analysis ................................................................................................ 18 8 Results ................................................................................................................................. 20 8.1 Summary .............................................................................................................. 20 8.2 GTMMHL .............................................................................................................. 23 8.3 QMAAA ................................................................................................................. 24 8.4 AMHL .................................................................................................................... 26 9 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 27 10 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 29 11 References ........................................................................................................................... 30 12 Appendices .......................................................................................................................... 35 12.1 WHL ...................................................................................................................... 36 12.2 OHL ...................................................................................................................... 54 12.3 QMJHL .................................................................................................................. 70 1 Introduction At the end of each hockey season hundreds of teenage hockey players hear their names called in one of the three Canadian Hockey League (CHL) drafts; 782 players were drafted in 2016 (eliteprospects) (not including the CHL Import Draft). The three leagues that together make up the CHL are the: Western Hockey League (WHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL). The teams in these leagues put in a lot of time and resources each year into making sure they are se- lecting the best possible players in these drafts. It is believed by many that teams who successfully draft the best players over the long term are putting themselves in the best position to succeed. “The successful identification of talent and the ability to build a solid foundation of players are essential in developing winning athletic programs (Gee, Mar- shall, & King, 2010). Each league has a different region from which to draft, but also dif- ferent drafting rules. They are as follows: WHL: - “The bantam draft allows for the orderly transfer of players to WHL Protected Player Lists (PPL) from the bantam ranks (14 year-olds)” (whl.ca). - “Teams can select eligible players from British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatch- ewan, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Yukon, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.” (onemillionskates.com) OHL: - For the 2018 OHL Draft: “…players born in 2002 and non-overage players that were not carded with an Ontario based midget AAA team from protected OHL territories are eligible for selection in the 15 rounds of the 2018 OHL Priority Selection” (15-year-olds). (OHL Priority Selection Information guide) - “Teams can draft players from Ontario, as well as from the U.S. states Michi- gan, Pennsylvania and New York, and a few other designated U.S. states east of the Mississippi River.” (onemillionskates.com) 2 QMJHL: - For the 2018 QMJHL Draft: 2002 players were eligible to be drafted (15-year- olds). - “In the QMJHL, draftees come from Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, as well as the U.S. region of New England, which includes Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.” (onemillionskates.com) The key difference in the drafting rules between leagues (besides geographical re- gions) is the age of the players each league is drafting. In the OHL and QMJHL they are drafting players after their 15-year-old seasons. CHL players are eligible to start playing in the league at 16 years old so these players are getting drafted in the spring, and then starting the season that fall with their teams. In the WHL they are drafting their players a whole developmental season earlier at the age of 14. These players still need to wait until they are 16 years old to play full time in the league, so the season after they are drafted, they are still going to play Midget level hockey. It is believed going into the study that the OHL’s and QMJHL’s draft method of se- lecting players after their 15-year-old season is more successful for developing CHL and NHL players than the WHL’s method of selecting players after their 14-year-old sea- son. The aim of this study is to determine if there is a difference in: teams successfully building their rosters with drafted players, percentage of CHL drafted players playing in the CHL, and the amount of the sample size going on to play in the National Hockey League (NHL). The research could be valuable to see if there is a gap between the rates at which each league is successfully developing their players to move on to the next level. But to also look into different factors playing into a player’s development such as: predict- ing a player’s future success, early sport specialization, and athlete burnout. The factors being examined to predict future player success are: round selected in the drafts,
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