AJT-6 MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler is an Institute Fellow based in Damascus and Beirut studying Lebanese ICWA affairs and Syrian reform. October 23, 2005 LETTERS Dear Peter: Hope you are well. Attached is an Op-Ed piece I have written dealing with the October 21st release of Detlev Mehlis’ report of his investigation into the death Since 1925 the Institute of of Former Lebanese Premier Rafik al-Hariri. If I were a magazine or newspaper correspondent based in Syria and Lebanon, this is what I would have written. Current World Affairs (the Crane- Many questions surround the investigation, which is expected to continue Rogers Foundation) has provided until the end of the year. As Mehlis tries to get to the bottom of this Levantine long-term fellowships to enable mystery, I believe one question remains central to Washington’s policy vis-à-vis outstanding young professionals Syria: Is Bashar al Assad fully in control of Syria? to live outside the United States The idea behind this piece has been on my mind for years, but only fully and write about international surfaced when a confidential but widely distributed version of the Mehlis report areas and issues. An exempt was leaked to me via a friend on October 21. While at first glance it looked like a operating foundation endowed by simple soft copy of the report, a flick of the tracking function in Microsoft Word to the late Charles R. Crane, the “final showing markup” showed something else. There in the margins were the Institute is also supported by document’s final edits. A little navigation of the program showed that UN Special contributions from like-minded Representative Terje Roed-Larsen and the United Nations Office in Vienna (UNOV) individuals and foundations. had apparently made the changes. The corrections were made only a few hours before the report’s release. Also to my surprise, there in paragraph 96 were the deleted names of Bashar’s TRUSTEES brother, Maher al Assad, his brother-in-law and head of Military Intelligence (MI) Bryn Barnard Asef Shawkat, former MI chief Hassan Khalil, former political-security chief Bahjat Joseph Battat Sulieman, and Lebanon’s former Sûreté Général head, Jamil al Sayyid. Mary Lynne Bird As I spent the morning on the phone with friends, trying to help them see the Steven Butler tracked changes as well, it suddenly came to me what a subtle game this had all Sharon F. Doorasamy become. Make no mistake about it: Washington is now trying to crack the Assad Peter Geithner regime wide open. Gary Hartshorn I do not think this is going to go as smoothly as the White House might think. Katherine Roth Kono Syria has the resources and experience to wait it out. But at the same time, a part Cheng Li of me doesn’t blame George W. Bush for pursuing the Assad regime in this way. Peter Bird Martin After all, how can you deal with a president if it’s unclear he is in charge? Why Dasa Obereigner even bother? David Z. Robinson I will send you a copy of the report as well. I know from your editing of my Carol Rose reports that you can navigate the tracking yourself! John Spencer Edmund Sutton Best regards, Andrew HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M. Holt How to deal with Syria: Find out who is in charge Edwin S. Munger nited Nations investigator Detlev do next, it is imperative that Washing- Richard H. Nolte Mehlis’ implication of “senior ton not miss an opportunity to deter- Albert Ravenholt U Lebanese and Syrian officials” in the mine who is worth dealing with in Phillips Talbot Valentine’s-Day Beirut assassination Damascus. of former Lebanese Premier Rafik al Hariri has already set off a firestorm of For nearly five years, I have worked Institute of Current World Affairs debate on how to pressure Damascus to as a journalist and researcher in Syria The Crane-Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street comply with the ongoing investigation. covering the country’s so-called reform Hanover, New Hampshire 03755 U.S.A. As all eyes turn toward Syrian Presi- process. Over dinners with diplomats dent Bashar al Assad and what he will and other foreign visitors both in Beirut and Damascus, one question arises more this committee is in a position to nego- last week in what officials are calling a frequently every year: Is Bashar al Assad tiate with the United States, even as the suicide. truly in control of Syria? sanctions process rumbles forward. Sanctions by themselves could be disas- At least for now, America needs CNN’s Christiane Amanpur even trous, creating chaos when the last thing someone inside the Assad regime with asked Assad the question himself last America needs is chaos in another whom it can deal. But the Assad regime week. Assad’s answer was, “You cannot Middle Eastern country. Multilateral does not necessarily need us. The regime be a dictator and not be in control.” Or pressure will only increase nationalist has plenty of experience surviving can you? Since Bashar came to power sentiments and regime paranoia that sieges, however chaotic. Damascus has in July 2000, everything from the slow will hamstring an already troubled re- been under US sanctions since 1979, and pace of reform to Damascus’ reticence form process. Damascus’ reform pro- has plenty of practice sneaking around to pull its troops out of Lebanon has gram is heavily assisted, if not sustained, them. It also has about $18 billion in cash been blamed on Assad’s weakness vis- by UN and European Union projects. reserves, the equivalent of about three à-vis the “old guard” — regime mem- Increased multilateral pressure on the years’ worth of current imports. Syria’s bers who remain from the 30-year rule regime could politicize Syria’s already Ba’athists are masters of the waiting of Bashar’s father, Hafez. When this be- limited reform space, grinding progress game: Even if Bashar can’t outwit or lief affected relations with the United to a halt. Such a situation needs to be outplay George W. Bush, history shows States — most notably Washington’s avoided at all costs. Syria’s high popu- an Assad can outlast two-term Ameri- demands that Damascus block insur- lation growth rate of 2.85 percent per can presidents. ❏ gents from entering neighboring Iraq — year, combined with pitifully low labor- the United States changed its Syria and capital-productivity, means that policy from one of “constructive engage- current unemployment levels of 11-20% ment” to “constructive instability.” This would increase rapidly — something Dear Reader: An edited version of this has included increased sanctions, pub- that could serve to fuel Islamic radical- article was accepted by the International lic threats and even reported cross-bor- ism in Syria and the region. Herald Tribune on Oct. 27, 2005. der skirmishes along the Iraqi-Syrian – PBM frontier. And most notably, there has So now, instead of simply using the been a conspicuous lack of incentives for Hariri investigation to push Damascus good behavior. to the brink through sanctions and watch the country sink into the abyss, ICWA Letters (ISSN 1083-4281) are Then out of the blue last week, with Washington should give Assad a chance published by the Institute of Current World Affairs Inc., a 501(c)(3) exempt the Mehlis report looming, a high-rank- to prove he is in charge of Syria. It could operating foundation incorporated in ing U.S. official confirmed rumors that offer him a carrot to go along with the New York State with offices located at Washington has offered Damascus a sanctions stick. Allowing the reopening 4 West Wheelock Street, Hanover, NH deal to get it off the hook in Lebanon of the oil pipeline between the Iraqi 03755. The letters are provided free of for its accused involvement in Hariri’s city of Kirkuk and the Syrian Medi- charge to members of ICWA and are assassination in exchange for halting its terranean port of Banias — to see if available to libraries and professional alleged support for the Iraqi insurgency, Assad can keep it operating without researchers by subscription. ending all interference in Lebanese af- acts of sabotage — would be a good fairs and cutting off support for Hizbollah first step in determining the degree to Phone: (603) 643-5548 Fax: (603) 643-9599 and Palestinian groups that reject any rap- which he controls Syria and if the old- E-Mail: [email protected] prochement with Israel. Damascus has guard veil is truly lifting. This would Web address: www.icwa.org reportedly turned down the offer. also help Washington’s troubles in ex- porting Iraqi oil and give Assad and the Executive Director: It is perhaps understandable that Syrian people a material incentive to sta- Peter Bird Martin such a proposal went nowhere, since it bilize its neighbor. And, perhaps most Program Administrator: is unclear that there is anyone in Syria importantly, this would open the door Brent Jacobson with enough authority to in effect re- to a peaceful solution to what is loom- Administrative and Publications write its foreign policy of the last 30 ing as the next big crisis for the US in Manager: Ellen Kozak years. The widely distributed version of the region. the Mehlis report, if accurate, indicates ©2005 Institute of Current World Affairs, just how fragmented this regime might There are some signs that Assad The Crane-Rogers Foundation. actually be. The possibility that the could be in a position to make good on president’s brother and brother-in-law such a deal. Following the Hariri assas- The Information contained in this took it upon themselves to organize the sination in February, it appears that publication may not be reprinted or assassination of a Middle Eastern states- Assad has been consolidating power. republished without the express man shows that, at the very least, Syria Several high-ranking officials were “re- written consent of the Institute of might be ruled by committee. tired” during the Ba’ath Party confer- Current World Affairs. ence in June and Interior Minister Ghazi We need to find out if someone on Kanan, a possible rival to Assad, died