International Food and Agribusiness Management Review Volume 15, Issue 3, 2012 China's Meat and Egg Production and Soybean Meal Demand for Feed: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections Tadayoshi Masudaa and Peter D. Goldsmithb aSenior Research Analyst, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature 457-4 Kamigamo Motoyama, Kita-ku, Kyoto 603-8047, Japan bAssociate Professor, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana, Champaign 1301 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, Illinois, 61801, USA Abstract China is a large meat and egg producer and correspondingly a large soybean meal consumer. Dual forces affect the derived demand for soybeans; rising livestock production to meet consum- er demand for protein and the shift to commercial feed by the livestock industry. We employ a unique elasticity approach to estimate these dual forces on soybean meal demand over the next 20 years. We then discuss the implications of these forecasts with respect to the modernization of China’s feed industry, land use changes in South America, and the need for yield research to reduce pressure on increasingly scarce land resources. Keywords: meat production; soybean meal; feed demand; elasticity; forecasting; land use Corresponding author: Tel: +217-333-5131 Email: P.D. Goldsmith:
[email protected] +The IFAMR is a non-profit publication. The additional support provided from this issue advertisers, Novus International and GlobalGap help keep us open access and dedicated to serving management, scholars, and policy makers worldwide. 35 2012 International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA). All rights reserved Madusa and Goldsmith / International Food and Agribusiness Management Review / Volume 15, Issue 3, 2012 Introduction Background The “livestock revolution” (Delgado et al.