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Sri Lanka Sri Lanka at a Glance: 2001-02

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Sri Lanka Sri Lanka at a Glance: 2001-02 COUNTRY REPORT Sri Lanka Sri Lanka at a glance: 2001-02 OVERVIEW The People’s Alliance-led (PA) government will be forced to take tough economic decisions to ensure the continued disbursement of the IMF stand- by package and to ensure that a longer-term package is arranged to begin in 2002. However, the main focus of the government will continue to be on organising peace talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, or Tamil Tigers). GDP growth will slow in 2001, but increase in 2002 driven by stronger manufacturing and services growth. High interest rates and low levels of business confidence will lead to investment slowing in 2001. The textile-led export sector will perform relatively strongly in upper-end garments, but will face more competition in low-end production. Inflation will not fall below 8.5% in 2002 as administered price controls are reduced. Key changes from last month Political outlook • The UNP has so far failed to secure the necessary support to force the government to resign, but will continue in its attempts to woo coalition partners of the PA into its fold. Economic policy outlook • The release of an IMF package of SDRs200m (US$258m) is likely to speed the economic reform process and lead to increased disbursements from other funding agencies. Economic forecast • The EIU has raised its forecast for consumer price inflation in 2001 to 11%, as a result of continued administered price hikes and the continuing affect of the currency’s depreciation. • Owing to the increased inflow of funds stemming from the agreement with the IMF, we have lowered our year-end exchange rate forecasts to SLRs93:US$1 at the end of 2001 and SLRs97:US$1 at the end of 2002. May 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-4174 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Sri Lanka 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2001-02 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 13 The political scene 16 Economic policy 19 The domestic economy 19 Economic trends 20 Industry 23 Agriculture 25 Infrastructure 27 Financial and other services 30 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 International assumptions summary 11 Forecast summary 23 Tea production, Jan-Feb 28 Stockmarket indicators 30 Trade balance, Jan-Feb 31 Composition f exports, Jan-Feb 32 Composition of imports, Jan-Feb List of figures 13 Gross domestic product 13 Sri Lanka rupee real exchange rate 19 Inflation, money supply and depreciation 23 Gross domestic product 27 Composite stockmarket index 33 Foreign-exchange reserves and import cover EIU Country Report May 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 2 Sri Lanka EIU Country Report May 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 Sri Lanka 3 Summary May 2001 Outlook for 2001-02 The political climate will remain volatile as the opposition steps up efforts to engineer the fall of the government and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) continues to exploit simmering civil discontent. Preliminary talks between the government and the Tamil Tigers are likely later this year. The granting of an IMF financing facility will compel the government to address the reform agenda. Progress will be made on privatisation, deregulation and labour reform. Monetary policy will gradually be relaxed. A shortfall in privatisation proceeds remains the biggest threat to the government’s borrowing targets. Inflation will rise in 2001 owing to administered price hikes, depreciation of the currency and higher duties and taxes. Economic policy The 2001 budget was essentially short term, aimed at raising revenue and boosting foreign-exchange reserves. Corporate and indirect taxes were raised, but, apart from a curtailment in defence spending, no other meaningful cost cutting measures were announced. The fiscal deficit, which rose to 9.8% (excluding grants and privatisations) of GDP in 2000, is forecast to decline to 8.5% of GDP in 2001. The budget will continue to rely heavily on revenue and privatisation increases to deliver the reduction in the deficit/GDP ratio. The domestic economy Inflation averaged 15.3% in the first quarter of 2001. Monetary policy has been relaxed slightly. The rupee has depreciated by around 5.7% since the end of 2000. Manufacturing output shrank in January. The government has embarked on a campaign to promote growth in the IT sector. Tourist arrivals surged in February and a campaign to boost tourism has been launched. Tea production climbed to record levels in January-February, but was harmed by industrial action in March. The stockmarket has continued to fall. A new index to track sovereign debt has been launched. The government plans to establish a development bank. Sri Lanka’s telephone density has improved and the telecoms sector is to be further deregulated in 2002. The government is to purchase 150 mw of power from private thermal power operators. Foreign trade and A contraction in imports and surge in exports in February helped narrow the payments merchandise trade balance in January-February. Healthy growth in tea earnings propped up agricultural export growth. Imports of food and consumer goods contracted sharply in February. Intermediate goods imports also declined but imports of investment goods rose. Private remittances recorded healthy growth in 2000. Foreign reserves provided just one-and-a-half months of import cover by the end of January, but are expected to improve to three months of import cover following the receipt of IMF balance-of-payments support. Editors: Gareth Price (editor); Kilbinder Dosanjh (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: May 7th 2001 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report May 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 4 Sri Lanka Political structure Official name Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Form of state Executive presidency based on French model The executive President is head of state and exercises all executive powers; elected for a period of six years by universal adult suffrage; may dissolve parliament at will National legislature Unicameral legislature; 225 members directly elected for six years by a system of modified proportional representation Local government Under the 13th amendment to the constitution, passed in November 1987, extensive powers devolved to nine directly elected provincial councils, primarily with a view to meeting Tamil demands for greater autonomy. Elections scheduled for 1998 were postponed, but were held in seven provinces between January and June 1999. Because of the continued conflict, elections in the remaining two provinces remain unscheduled National elections Elections held every six years; next elections due by October 2006 (parliamentary) and December 2005 (presidential) National government Chandrika Kumaratunga won a second term in office in December 1999. The People’s Alliance (PA) won the highest number of seats (107) but had to seek the support of a Tamil and a Muslim minority party to form a fragile coalition government with a combined total of 116 seats Main political organisations Governing coalition—(PA), of which the main components are the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress
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