2014 Year in Review: Pushing Out on the Existential Risk Curve in a Global Game of Tetris. David B. Collum Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology Cornell University Email: [email protected] Twitter: @DavidBCollum Background: The Author “I don't write about what I know: I write to find out what I know.” ~Patricia Hampl Every December, I write a Year in Reviewref 1–7 first posted on Chris Martenson’s website Peak Prosperityref 2 with a secondary posting at Zero Hedge.ref 3 What started as a brief introspective shared with a handful of e-quaintances has mutated into a detailed account that has accrued as many as 100,000 clicks. Each year I try to identify themes in events that evolve. As the title suggests, I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows. 1 “If the world seems to be turning ’round faster than ever, you’re not alone. Grab hold of something, it shows no sign of abating.” ~Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management My lack of credentials is absolute—the Paris Hilton of finance—but has not prevented me from being a poseur in the Wall Street Journalref 8 and The Guardianref 9 and on Russia Today,ref 10,11 and a host of podcasts.ref 1 On the heels of a threesome with Bob Lehman and Grant Williams on BTFD.tv following last year's review,ref 12 2014 started with a bang on BTFD.tv in a New Year’s Eve hexabox shared with a trader who cut his chops selling dime bags on street corners and a person who on close inspection appears to trade the trannies.ref 13 Subsequent interviews on Peak Prosperity,ref 14 Wall Street for Main Street,ref 15 Kunstlercast,ref 16 Stansberry Radio,ref 17 and Red Pill Radioref 18 offered more opportunities to Milli Vanilli my way through finance and politics. I shared the podium with T. Boone Pickens and Alex Jones as an invited speaker at the Stansberry Investment Conference: “Boone. I agree with you. That first billion is being a bitch.”ref 19 (I took another swipe at the Roth IRA.) I almost made Rolling Stone, but Matt left me at the altar. (I still can't get that tune out of my head.) As this review is being uploaded to the web, I’m doing an interview with Erin Ade on Boom Bust (Russia Today), which will be posted on YouTube.ref 20 “Risk means more things can happen than will happen.” ~Elroy Dimsen, London Business School 2 Content Footnotes appear as superscripts and contain associated hyperlinks. The whole enchilada can be downloaded as a single PDF here or viewed in parts via the hot-linked contents as follows: Part 1: Background: The Author Content Sources and the Fourth Estate On Conspiracy Theorizing Investing The Economy Bending, Breaking, and Broken Markets Precious Metals Energy Personal Debt, Savings, and Retirement States and Municipalities The Bond Caldera Argentina Versus the Bond Vultures Inflation Versus Deflation Part 2: Wealth Disparity Banks and Bankers AIG The Federal Reserve Baptists Bootleggers Europe Asia China Japan ISIS Russia Ebola Government Clintons Barack Obama IRS Scandal Part Deux Bundy Ranch and Ferguson Militarization of Police Civil Forfeiture Civil Liberties Conclusion Books Acknowledgments Part 3: 3 Links Each review begins with an account of my efforts to get to a financially secure retirement. I continue to cling doggedly to my belief in the Austrian business cycle theory and the need for a hard-asset-rich portfolio despite two consecutive years of decidedly lousy returns. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—just the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm (must see). I am a quote junkie: quotations capture people’s thoughts in their own voices, and they do the intellectual heavy lifting. I try to avoid themes covered amply in previous reviews. Some topics seem to go into quiescence, whereas others move to center stage without warning. Precious metals are a personal favorite. Every year seems to pick up a theme, possibly reflecting the news cycle (although my sources are anything but mainstream). Geopolitics were huge this year. Sections titled Baptists and Bootleggers, Bankers, and the Federal Reserve cover the gamut of human folly. Owing largely to central banking largesse, the system seems to be wound tighter than a golf ball. The third and hopefully final leg of a secular bear market that began in 2000 may be visible—but record debt, bank interventions, low interest rates, and the onset of global currency wars may simply be bricks in the Wall of Worry. Naysayers relentlessly remind us how many terrible things have not happened. All year I kept thinking of a poignant declaration: “Hey guys: It's a dud!” ~Lt. Red Winkle en route to becoming pink mist in Pearl Harbor I finish with synopses of the books that shaped my thinking. You will not find any new releases from Geithner or Clinton: I am selective. Sources and the Fourth Estate “There are people that don’t see the use in Twitter, and I get that. !Who wants to mentally joust with the smartest, most relevant, and most connected people in the world?” ~Tony Greer, Buckingham Research Group Before laying out a heap of content myself, a few comments about sources are warranted. Despite occasional bursts of glory and some serious journalism salted throughout the mainstream media, we have witnessed rot. The only commentary on TV worth expending ATP on is The Daily Show and its spawn. I do not need right- or left-wing propaganda. It is nauseating, especially given that so many reporters and academicians feigning impartiality are said to be on the payroll of political parties.ref 21 The former editor of one of Germany’s main dailiesref 22 admitted to being “bribed by [American] billionaires,” and a CIA operative referred to journalists as “cheaper than a good call girl.”ref 23 The once-illustrious 4 CNBC ratings are now plummeting for a simple reason: it sucks. Simon Hobbs and Steve Sedgwick can put a sock in it. Mandy suggested that “over indebtedness comes from financial illiteracy.” Steve Liesman illustrated it by stating that “debt is the great bridge between working hard and playing hard in this country.” I can feel my IQ dropping. Wayne Rogers of Mash fame hammered a Fox host by noting, “You're a moron because you talk too much, and you don't think through it.”ref 24 Well said, Wayne. @DavidBCollum Ask Fisher why a committee of bureaucrats sets the price of capital. @steveliesman Because the alternative is the vagaries of the supply of gold. My primary sources are an eclectic gaggle of bloggers—guys like Michael Kriegerref 25 and Charles Hugh Smithref 26—and select news consolidators. My actions speak to my enthusiasm for Peak Prosperity.ref 27 The 500-pound gorilla is Zero Hedge—edgy, ahead of the curve, and accurate enough. Newcomers this year include David Stockman's ContraCornerref 28 and a new Internet news network called RealVisionref 29 created by Grant Williams and Raoul Pal. Twitter may or may not be a good investment, but a good Twitter feed is a gateway to the world. You never know what you'll find: “@zerohedge Ha ha, you are such a dickhead . it's wonderful.” ~David Andolfatto (@dandolfa), senior vice president, director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis “I still think we should buy them. He is on your schedule for Dec 15 or 16—we will need to sell him. I have a plan.” ~Anthony Noto (@anthonynoto), CFO of Twitter, struggling to keep tweets and direct messages separate On Conspiracy Theorizing “I’m not going to censor myself to comfort your ignorance.”! ~Jon Stewart 5 These markets are making me a little schizophrenic—like Jerry (Mel Gibson) in Conspiracy Theory—so this blog is really a group effort. But I vehemently denounce those who claim there are no conspiracies and who try to protect their beliefs by labeling the rest of us conspiracy theorists. I could cite famous folks who share my views, but on this one I stand alone: Men and women of wealth and power conspire. Period/full stop. If a market can be rigged, it is being rigged. If numbers can be cooked to advance an agenda they probably are being cooked. It is usually the glib intellectuals—guys like Cass Sunsteinref 30—who denounce conspiracy theories as intellectually childish and those who consider them as diseased. You are trying to shut me up with a pejorative label. I will let one of the iconic educators of our time respond: 6 Investing “You have to decide whether to look like an idiot before the crash or an idiot after it.” ~John Hussman, Founder of Hussman Funds I have changed little in my portfolio since last year. The only consequential change is that I resumed purchasing physical gold after a decade-long hiatus, increasing the total tonnage by approximately 20%.