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Virtual Indicator Exhibition Virtual Indicator Exhibition Virtual Indicator Exhibition Virtual Indicator Exhibition Adjusted Net Saving by Alexandra Sears and Giovanni Ruta, The World Bank What is Adjusted Net Saving? subsistence. Resource dependence complicates the measurement of saving effort because deple- Adjusted net saving measures the true rate of tion of natural resources is not visible in standard saving in an economy after taking into account national accounts. The same is true for pollution investments in human capital, depletion of natu- damages to existing assets. ral resources and damages caused by pollution. Adjusted net saving, known informally as genu- Adjusted net saving overcomes this problem by ine saving, is an indicator aiming at assessing an measuring the change in value of a specifi ed set economy’s sustainability based on the concepts of of assets, excluding capital gains. If a country’s extended national accounts. net saving is positive and the accounting includes a suffi ciently broad range of assets, economic Positive savings allow wealth to grow over time thus theory suggests that the present value of wellbe- ensuring that future generations enjoy at least as ing is increasing. Conversely, persistently nega- many opportunities as current generations. In this tive adjusted net saving indicates that an econo- sense, adjusted net saving seeks to offer policy- my is on an unsustainable path. makers who have committed their countries to a “sustainable” development pathway, an indicator In addition to serving as an indicator of sustain- to track their progress in this endeavor. ability, adjusted net saving has several other ad- vantages as a policy indicator. Adjusted net saving is derived from the standard national accounting measure of gross saving by • It presents resource and environmental making four adjustments: issues within a framework that fi nance and development planning ministries can (i) consumption of fi xed capital is deducted to understand. obtain net national saving; • It reinforces the need to boost domestic (ii) current public expenditure on education is savings, and hence the need for sound added to account for investment in human macroeconomic policies. capital; • It highlights the fi scal aspects of environ- (iii) estimates of the depletion of variety of ment and natural resource management, natural resources are deducted to refl ect since collecting resource royalties and charg- the decline in asset values associated with ing pollution taxes are basic ways to ensure extraction and depletion; effi cient use of environmental resources. (iv) deductions are made for damages from car- bon dioxide and particulate emissions. History of the Indicator Gross national saving – Consumption of fi xed capital = Net National Saving + Education Expenditure The publication of the Brundtland Commission – Energy depletion – Mineral depletion – Net forest report in 1987 introduced a critical new dimen- depletion – Damage form carbon dioxide emissions sion to our conception of economic development – Damage from particulate emissions = Adjusted by raising the issue of sustainability of develop- net saving ment. The United Nations Conference on Environ- ment and Development (the Rio Conference) in The indicator is measured in percentage by 1992 helped to cement this understanding and dividing ANS by GNI. prompted most countries to commit to achieving sustainable development. Achieving sustainable development is at heart a process of creating and The Need for Adjusted Net Saving maintaining wealth. Saving is a core aspect of development. Without Wealth is more than the value of produced assets. the creation of a surplus for investment, there is It includes natural resources, healthy ecosystems, no way for countries to escape a state of low-level and human resources. The measurement of com- 228 Beyond GDP: Measuring progress, true wealth, and the well-being of nations Adjusted Net Saving as percentage of GNI prehensive wealth falls entirely in the realm As part of this reporting effort, the World Bank of integrated economic and environmental ac- launched, Where is the Wealth counting or green national accounting – and of Nations? (World Bank, suggests that expanding our traditional nation- 2006), which offers new esti- al accounting measures of savings and wealth mates of total wealth, includ- could be an important step in guiding policies ing produced capital, natural for sustainable development. resources, the value of human skills and capabilities, and indicators Virtual The idea that saving, or changes in wealth, is updated measures of saving. crucial for sustainability is already present in Blueprint for a Green Economy (Pearce et al (1989)). But it is in Pearce and Atkinson (1993) Challenges that the concept is introduced formally. We should be cautious in interpreting a posi- Indicator Exhibition Virtual Pearce and Atkinson combine published es- tive genuine saving rate. Some important as- timates of depletion and degradation for 20 sets from the analysis are omitted for meth- countries with standard national accounting odological and empirical reasons, which may data to examine true savings behavior. By this mean that saving rates are only apparently measure many countries appear to be unsus- positive. Challenges include: tainable because their gross savings are less than the combined sum of conventional capital • Lack of data (i.e. underground water, land depreciation and natural resource depletion. degradation, fi sh stocks, diamonds) • Lack of methods (i.e. how can we put a value Hamilton and Clemens (1999) provide a theoret- on biodiversity) ical foundation and empirical evidence showing • Measurement errors that levels of saving are negative in a wide range of countries when the environment and natural resources are included in the savings measure. The Path to Sustainability Negative genuine saving is more than a theo- retical possibility, therefore, and the evidence is The following graphs illustrate the directions that many countries particularly in Sub-Saharan Malaysia and Venezuela are taking on the path Africa are being progressively impoverished as a to sustainable development. result of poor government policies. In Malaysia, positive saving has been associat- The World Bank has a 35-year time series of ed with substantial growth leading the country ANS estimates which has permitted empiri- to become an important example of success in cal tests of whether net saving today does in East Asia. In Venezuela, negative saving rates fact translate into future increases in wellbe- have been associated with a poor rate of eco- ing. Ferreira and Vincent (2005) show that nomic growth. Between 1980 and 2006, the this relationship holds if the sample is limited country has experienced one of the slowest to developing countries only; Ferreira et al. growth rates in Latin America. (forthcoming) show that these results can be extended to incorporate the wealth-diluting effects of population growth. Adjusted Net Saving for Malaysia 50 Today, the World Bank publishes two important sources of indica- 40 tors that provide an annual snap- shot of progress in the developing 30 world: The Little Green Data Book 20 and World Development Indicators. These indicators allow us to assess 10 the scope of the problems we face 0 1980 1990 2000 and measure progress in solving them. Both set of publications fea- Gross savings (% of GNI) Adjusted net savings (% of GNI) ture the ANS indicator. Net national savings (% of GNI) 229 19 & 20 November 2007 Virtual Indicator Exhibition Adjusted Net Saving for Venezuela Additional Resources: 50 • Adjusted Net Saving Web Page 40 30 (World Bank) (fi nd everything from tools, 20 papers, and data to manuals) 10 http://go.worldbank.org/3AWKN2ZOY0 0 • For a full set of publications on -10 Green Accounting please visit -20 -30 our Publications Site 1980 1990 2000 Gross savings (% of GNI) Adjusted net savings (% of GNI) Net national savings (% of GNI) * For an Interactive Tool on obtaining the ANS References: for every country, please go to http://go.worldbank.org/7QFHSRIE40 • Ferreira, S. and J. Vincent, 2005. Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development? Economic Next Steps Development and Cultural Change 53(3):737-54. A number of efforts are currently underway to • Ferreira, S., K. Hamilton and J. Vincent, strengthen the measurement of adjusted net (forthcoming). Comprehensive Wealth saving. These include: and Future Consumption: Accounting for Population Growth. • Updating methods to estimate energy and World Bank Economic Review. mineral extraction costs and their evolution • Hamilton, K. and M. Clemens. 1999. over time. This is necessary to correctly mea- “Genuine Savings Rates in Developing sure the value of energy and mineral resource Countries.” World Bank Economic Review, depletion, which constitute a major deduction 13, No. 2, 333-56. to saving and a large source of rents for many • Pearce, D., A. Markandya, E. Barbier. 1989. developing countries. Extraction costs are not “Blueprint for a Green Economy.” usually available and must be estimated using London: Earthscan. scattered data from extractive companies. • Pearce, D. and G. Atkinson. 1993. “Capital Theory and the Measurement of • Adjusting for population growth. While nega- Sustainable Development: An Indicator of tive saving rates are an indication of unsustain- Weak Sustainability.” Ecological Economics ability, positive saving rates may be masking 8: 103-8. a potential source of unsustainabiliy if popula- • World Bank. 2006. Where is the Wealth of tion is growing
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