THE GENERAL ELECTION in LONDON an LCA Special Briefing
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THE GENERAL ELECTION IN LONDON An LCA Special Briefing 19 DECEMBER 2019 LCA | THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION IN LONDON | 2 CONTENTS SECTION 1 The view from London – Nothing to see here? ..................................................................................................................3 SECTION 2 The result in seats ..............................................................................................................................................................6 SECTION 3 London vs. UK voteshare 2001-2019 .................................................................................................................................7 SECTION 4 Majorities in London seats held .........................................................................................................................................8 SECTION 5 A-Z of London seats .........................................................................................................................................................10 SECTION 6 About LCA .......................................................................................................................................................................13 London Communications Agency SECTION 1 LCA | THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION IN LONDON | 3 THE VIEW FROM LONDON – NOTHING TO SEE HERE? With only four seats changing hands in London 2. The Tories hang on, barely and the final tally of seats-per-party in the capital Conversely, the Tories, long derided for having ‘lost touch’ no different to 2017, one would be forgiven for with London, maintained their seat count in the capital, and thinking that nothing really changed. The LCA boosted their majorities in 15 of the 21 constituencies they won. team has taken a closer look and found there’s But the party’s ‘London problem’ has not evaporated (not by a long shot) with their vote share in the capital dropping by more than meets the eye. We go through seven key 1% compared to a 1% increase nationally. In any case, Tory points below and consider what this all means for Mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey is unlikely to take much the next (currently scheduled) vote in London – the comfort; the party still has a long way to go to challenge Mayoral and London Assembly election on 7 May. Labour in London, a mission that will fall to its local party associations given the party nationally appears to have turned much of its focus to the North and Midlands. 1.Labour still leads, but doesn’t dominate London Labour still holds 49 of the capital’s 73 constituencies 3.Lib Dems boosted, but not enough and so the ‘red ring’ here has avoided the fate of the ‘red 12 December was a disappointing night for the Lib Dems. The wall’ elsewhere. They did lose one seat to the Tories, the loss of their leader’s seat – and a net loss of one seat nationally ultra-marginal Kensington, though it was close again and the – demonstrated that the gamble on making Remain-no-matter- loss was balanced by a convincing gain in Putney. However, what their single biggest campaign pledge had not worked. In Labour did see its vote share slide by -6.5%, which is not London, they won a seat from the Tories (Richmond Park) only much better than the nationwide figure of -7.8% (see national to lose another (Carshalton & Wallington) which they had held vs London vote share figures on p.7). In the last two General since 1997. The ‘Stop Brexit’ party did increase their vote share Elections the party increased its share in the capital, so this will overall (+4.1%) and in London (+6.1%) but for the Remain party be somewhat worrying to Sadiq Khan six months out from the in a Remain city surely it should have been higher. Siobhan Mayoral election. Benita, the Lib Dem candidate for Mayor, will be wondering how to play the Brexit card through the campaign, especially after 31 January. London Communications Agency LCA | THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION IN LONDON | 4 4. Majorities in seats held tell an interesting tale 5. Defections misfired What insight can we draw from looking at how majorities have In a year which saw 18 MPs leave their parties and join – or shifted in seats that have not changed political colours? The form – others, every single one of them who sought re-election maps and tables on pages 8-12 show how Labour saw its vote on 12 December was unsuccessful. In London, Mike Gapes, share fall in all but six seats it held in London, including Jeremy the former Labour MP who defected to Change UK, lost the Corbyn and John McDonnell’s, though this is admittedly from Ilford South seat (to a Labour candidate) which he had held a high watermark in 2017. Conversely, the Tory vote share fell since 1992. As for the Lib Dems, former Labour (and Change in only about a quarter of their seats and Boris Johnson himself UK) MPs Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna placed second in saw his majority in Uxbridge and South Ruislip boosted despite Finchley & Golders Green and Cities of London & Westminster not being there to campaign! The Lib Dem majorities were respectively whilst former Conservative MP Sam Gyimah boosted in both of the seats they held alongside a notable placed a distant third in Kensington. If the two party system increase of vote share in target seats (Finchley & Golders Green really is too entrenched to allow these renegades in, that (+25%) and the Cities of London & Westminster (+19.6), even doesn’t bode well for Independent candidate for Mayor (and though they fell short of taking them. former Tory) Rory Stewart in May. London Communications Agency LCA | THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION IN LONDON | 5 6. A few musical chairs 7. London poised for demotion? While the vast majority of the 73 seats in London remained With a raft of new seats to their name in the North and in the hands of the same party, we do have 15 new MPs in Midlands, the Conservatives will be determined to consolidate total. Leader of Westminster City Council Nickie Aiken was their gains in these historically Labour heartlands. Promises elected as the new Conservative MP for the Cities of London of investment and devolution in these regions are widely and Westminster; City Hall’s former Deputy Mayor for Housing expected and there is a general sense that London will be James Murray is now Ealing North’s MP; and Deputy Leader painted as the spoilt child who is about to get some long- of Hillingdon David Simmonds was elected MP for Ruislip, deserved tough love. West Midlands Mayor Andy Street (Con) Northwood & Pinner. London Assembly members Florence and Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham (Lab) Eshalomi (Labour, Lambeth and Southwark) and Gareth Bacon have already outlined the issues they want prioritised by (Conservative, Bexley and Bromley) were also successfully central government and Sadiq – as well as his opponents for elected to the Commons, representing the Vauxhall and the Mayoralty – will have to figure out how best to make the Orpington constituencies respectively. Other prominent London capital’s case to a Prime Minister whose attention is clearly politicians pursuing bids for a seat in the Commons were elsewhere. less successful; the leader of Havering Council, Conservative Damien White, failed to take Dagenham & Rainham, though he cut incumbent Labour MP Jon Cruddas’ majority to a wafer thin 293. Outside London, Lambeth Labour Councillor and ceremonial Mayor Ibrahim Dogus failed to hold West Bromwich East for Labour, one of the many seats which fell to the Tories for the first time, but Labour Islington councillor Claudia Webbe was elected for Leicester East. 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