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January 2019

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January 2019 January 2019 This is the eighth update shedding light on what catches the eye in and around Westminster and its satellite community of advisers, think tanks and hangers on. Some of this may have been captured in the headlines and other stuff. Views my own but an acknowledgement that everyone is working hard in a challenging political environment and bad- tempered world….and one last thing, the first edition of 2019 can’t possibly be a Brexit-free zone. Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA Key Political Dates Theresa May ended 2018 with a staggering 20 hours plus at the dispatch box since the Brexit deal was agreed on November 14. Will she smash this record in the weeks ahead with the PM delivering Monday Brexit statements at the despatch box 6 out of the 7 last sitting Mondays. Talking of broken records, following the Prime Minister’s massive Commons defeat over the Brexit deal, many media outlets reported on the 230-vote Commons defeat was the worst suffered by any British Prime Minister in modern political history. It means May’s place in the history books is now assured, having smashed Labour PM Ramsay MacDonald’s previous record (a 166 vote-defeat back in 1924) by almost 40%. Theresa May will bring her Brexit Plan B to the House of Commons on Tuesday 29 January. All Brexit legislation, including the Second Reading of the Immigration Bill has been halted. The vote, next Tuesday, will mark eight weeks until the UK exits the European Union, with only 30 scheduled House of Commons sitting days left until the end of March to ensure all the necessary legislation has gone through. In policy terms, the dates they require Royal Assent by will differ in a no deal and a deal scenario. The primary legislation list consists of seven bills: • The Trade Bill – completed Commons stages, starting committee stage today • Agriculture Bill – still in first House (Commons), awaiting Commons report stage • Fisheries Bill – still in first House (Commons), awaiting Commons report stage • Healthcare Bill – still in first House (Commons), remaining Commons stages today • Immigration Bill – introduced to the Commons, awaiting second reading • Financial Services Bill – still in first House (Lords), awaiting Report stage • Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill – not yet introduced Already there is talk of the Commons sitting on more Fridays, as well as at the weekends if necessary, and scrapping the February week-long recess. Latest Polling The latest YouGov/Times voting intention survey sees 39% of Britons saying they would vote Conservative (down from 41% ) while 34% say they would back Labour (down from 35%). the Liberal Democrats are on 11% (unchanged) and votes for other parties stands at 16% (up from 13%). When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, the latest poll shows 36% of people prefer Theresa May while 20% favour Jeremy Corbyn. A further 41% answered "not sure". Other polling In other YouGov polling, one in five Labour voters would prefer the Conservatives to remain in Government for now over a general election. New YouGov research shows that, of these outcomes, half of Britons (48%) would prefer the Conservatives to remain in office for now. Only 29% think they should resign and that there should be a new general election, while the remaining 23% don’t know. Unsurprisingly, 87% of those who voted Conservative in 2017 want to see the party continue in office – a mere 5% think they should stand down. While the majority of Labour voters (56%) want to see the government resign and call a general election, one in five (22%) want to see them stay in place. Remain voters are near evenly split – 39% want to see the Conservatives stay, 43% prefer them to go. Leave voters are more emphatic in their support for continuity, with nearly two thirds (65%) backing the party to stay on. Government Appointments Former Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood was appointed a health minister in the House of Lords. Government Resignations Gareth Johnson MP as PPS (ministerial aide) Eddie Hughes MP as PPS Craig Tracy MP as PPS Tom Pursglove MP as Vice-Chair for Youth Former No10 adviser James O’Shaughnessy has stood down as one of the government’s health ministers in the House of Lords. Minister of the Year 2018 Announced as Home Secretary Sajid Javid. Demoted by Theresa May back in 2016, Javid spent two years languishing at DCLG, criticised by colleagues for the business rates debacle and failing to get his house-building plans past No. 10. But his fortunes have been transformed in a whirlwind 2018, when in the aftermath of the Windrush scandal enveloping Home Secretary Amber Rudd he suddenly emerged as everyone’s favourite candidate to replace her. Since his appointment, Javid has stamped his authority on the office, reversing several of Theresa May’s signature policies. He now finds himself as a potential contender to succeed her in No. 10. Backbencher of the Year 2018 Goes to Labour MP and wife of Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper MP. There was no more dangerous place to be in Parliament in 2018 than as a Government Minister before Cooper’s fearsome home affairs select committee, with her forensic questioning and sarcasm. Parliamentarian of the Year 2018 Named as Theresa May. Prime Ministers do not generally spend much time in the House of Commons beyond the weekly ordeal of Wednesday’s Prime Ministers Questions but May has shown some serious mettle with the hours she has spent at the dispatch box. Gender Pay Gap The Prime Minister referred to it as one of the “burning injustices” she pledged to tackle — the gap in pay between men and women doing the same job but recent statistics on special adviser salaries show Downing Street has an enormous gender pay gap. Of the 99 special advisers employed across Whitehall only 25 are women — and they get paid on average 5.7% less than their male counterparts. Downing Street itself is one of the worst offenders. Of the 37 political staff working directly for the prime minister only five are women and only one is part of Mrs. May’s top team. A Cabinet Office spokesman said: “We are working to address the small gender pay gap difference among special advisers.” Labour Land With the Parliamentary Brexit stalemate still ongoing Jeremy Corbyn has finally nudged Labour’s position on a second Brexit referendum. His official Opposition amendment laid on Monday means that the party’s frontbench will for the very first time support in Parliament a set of words that explicitly includes a People’s Vote option for MPs. It 'requires ministers to secure sufficient time' for MPs to debate and vote on two alternatives to no-deal: 'legislating to hold a public vote' or backing Labour’s own 'soft Brexit'. The very carefully worded amendment has been welcomed by some People’s Vote backers as real progress, however incremental. However, at the regular Monday weekly Labour Party meeting at the House of Commons Labour MPs in Leave seats were not happy. Jeremy Corbyn’s closest ally Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, announced on Tuesday that it was “highly likely” Labour will back parliament’s plan to block a no-deal Brexit in Tuesday’s House of Commons vote. John McDonnell praised the “sensible proposal” put forward by Labour MP Yvette Cooper and other cross-party backbenchers to delay Brexit if a deal has not passed the Commons by February 26. “It’s increasingly likely that we’ll have to take that option,” he added. Resignations Former Government Minister and Bury South MP Ivan Lewis has resigned from the Labour Party over Jeremy Corbyn’s failure to tackle anti-Semitism in the party, saying he “could no longer reconcile my Jewish identity and current Labour politics”. Lewis has been suspended from the Labour Party for twelve months over harassment allegations but accuses the party of a “politically motivated delay” to his investigation, claiming that the party had never interviewed him over the complaints and chosen not to move forward with his disciplinary process “for political reasons”. Labour Leaver Fiona Onasanya, the ex-Labour MP found guilty of lying to police to avoid a speeding charge, has compared herself to Jesus and Moses. Under laws introduced in 2015 any prison term, even a suspended one, can trigger a 'recall' petition. This can force a by-election if signed by 10% of voters in her constituency. She has vowed to stay on as an MP despite Labour party withdrawing their support. UKIP Is Nigel Farage preparing for another comeback? The one-time former Ukip leader has stated "If the ball gets dropped on Brexit, I will be back, absolutely. I'll be back in politics and I will give it everything, and if we have to win this battle again, we will win it." New Political Party A new centre party has been a vow to win the next general election. United for Change, founded by the millionaire entrepreneur Simon Franks, wants to create a “true grassroots movement” that will practise politics without tribalism, confrontation, “yelling and finger pointing”. Ryan Wain, its new chief executive, has written “Britain deserves better than this. That is the message United for Change will launch with in 2019. We are committed to bringing together this divided nation and giving whatever it takes to unlock its potential.” Select Committee Review The House of Commons Liaison Committee has launched a major new inquiry into the effectiveness and influence of the select committee system, including its future configuration post-Brexit. The existing departmental select committee system is celebrating its 40th anniversary in June.
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