An epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox has taken on five current global threats. The good news is, he’s optimistic about finding solutions.

Thought Leader Interview: Larry Brilliant

by Karen Christensen

While at university, you attended a presentation by Dr. Martin Those words really resonated with me, and with everybody Luther King Jr. that ‘changed you forever’. How so? who was on the stage that day. All of us went down to Missis- I was a sophomore at the University of at the time, sippi or Alabama that summer to work with Dr. King, beginning a and I was extremely depressed. My father had died a few weeks lifetime commitment to social change. He didn’t just change me before, and five days later my grandfather died. I went back to forever that day, he changed a generation. college and locked myself in my room, refusing to go out. Then I saw an article in the Michigan Daily that Martin Luther King You went on to help eradicate smallpox in the early 1970s. Jr. was coming to our campus. This was 1962, so nobody really Describe what this period of your life taught you about knew who he was yet; but for some reason, I decided to go. optimism. On the day of the presentation there was a major snowstorm In 1969 I graduated from ’s School of – the sort of day when nobody in their right mind goes out; but I Medicine, where I was trained as a surgeon, and right after I did did. When I got to the auditorium – which could hold 2,000 people my internship, I developed cancer of the parathyroid gland. I was – there were only a few dozen students there. Dr. King got up and operated on, and I had plenty of free time while I was healing. SMITH looked at all the empty chairs, and he just laughed and laughed. He Watching the news, I saw that a group of Native Americans had LISA said, “All right, you guys, come on up here,” and we all got up on the taken over Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay. One of the native BY stage and sat around in a circle with him. What was to have been women wanted to have her baby on what she perceived as Indi- an hour-long talk became four or five hours, as he spoke about his an-liberated land, but no doctor would go out there to help. There

dream of a world free of racism in which “we are all in it together.” was no water, no electricity and no health care. I decided to go. ILLUSTRATION

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THE FIVE ISSUES BEING TACKLED BY THE SKOLL GLOBAL THREATS FUND

Climate Change: The climate is changing in ways that jeopardize devastation through floods and landslides. If business-as-usual human security and well being. The global warming trend we are water resource management continues, the global water demand currently experiencing differs alarmingly from past changes in the and supply gap is projected to be 40 per cent by 2030, given the Earth’s climate. This warming is largely driven by human activities projected population and economic growth. Climate variability will such as the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture, and clearing of for- only exacerbate the problem further. ests, which release heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide. The effects of rising temperatures and shifting precipitation pat- Nuclear Proliferation: Nuclear weapons retain the dubious terns are already being felt across the globe. We no longer have distinction of being the fastest way ever devised to kill the most the luxury of treating this as a future problem: climate change is people. The threat of such weapons has been compelling enough with us today and we need to tackle it from a risk management to drive a series of international agreements banning the develop- perspective. This will require aggressive actions to reduce emis- ment of nuclear capabilities. Only nine countries are believed to sions of heat-trapping gases to avoid the risks of the most severe currently have nuclear weapons capabilities. Yet these weapons – impacts, coupled with systems-based approaches to building because of the power they are perceived to convey – continue to resilience to climate variability and change. attract political attention. Iran, with its push to develop fuel-pro- cessing capabilities for what it claims are ‘peaceful nuclear power : Few things hold the power to stop the global purposes’ and what the world believes is for creating nuclear economy in its tracks. A is one of them. In addition to weapons – raises alarms around the globe. The concern is that the high human costs of suffering, pandemics can stop travel and nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists – for whom commerce and create political tension. With globalization and the killing large numbers of people is generally a stated goal. ease of international travel, the potential for pandemics to spread quickly and widely is greater than ever before. H1N1, commonly Middle East Conflict: The Arab Spring raised hopes that a new era referred to as the swine flu, has proven relatively mild in terms of of positive change may be emerging in the Middle East. However, severity, but has spread faster than any previously known influ- there also exists an unusually high risk of conflict and instability, as enza. Envision an influenza with high mortality, such as Avian Flu, the Iranian nuclear crisis remains unresolved, the Israeli-Palestinian spreading at this speed. Tackling pandemics effectively requires conflict enters a new and uncertain phase after the collapse of the four things: good science, good business, international coopera- peace process, and revolutions and uprisings portend prolonged tion, and public awareness. internal disorder, rapid foreign policy realignments and the disin- tegration of the regional security order. In the longer-term, chronic Water Scarcity: Water is required for life, livelihoods and pros- socioeconomic problems related to youth unemployment and food perity. Its variability, both in the absence and presence of water, and water insecurity, exacerbated by climate change, will continue already poses a substantial threat to 40 per cent of the global to challenge even the most stable regimes. Addressing these population. The absence of reliable water is killing millions of peo- threats will require action on multiple fronts, none more important ple per year, threatening food security, disrupting energy supply, than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains the most likely restricting trade, creating refugees, and undermining authority. trigger for large-scale regional conflict. The presence of too much water is a cause of death, poverty, and

After delivering a baby girl, I was airlifted off the island by We really liked living on a bus and being hippies, so a group the Coast Guard and landed back in San Francisco. It seemed like of us decided to buy two buses and drive them from London to every TV station in the world had their cameras in my face, all Katmandu. This took two years, and it was an amazing voyage. of them asking, “What do the Indians want?” Of course, I didn’t Along the way, we heard about an Indian guru named Karoli know the answer, but my picture was on TV , and I got a call the Baba who was ’s guru and had written books about very next day from Warner Brothers asking if I would play the him. My wife Girija and I went up and lived with him for about role of a young doctor in a movie. They said they would give me two and a half years at his ashram in the . Ram Dass, money to start a medical centre on Alcatraz, so I agreed. Danny Goleman, and other seekers were there, and For the next few months, my wife and I lived on a bus that they became life-long friends of mine. travelled from San Francisco to London, and we made a movie, One day, my guru said to me, “It’s time for you to go find your Medicine Ball Caravan, about rock and roll bands featuring the destiny by working for the World Health Organization (WHO) , the Grateful Dead and Jethro Tull; the to help eradicate smallpox.” I had never thought of doing that. shoot ended with a Pink Floyd concert in Canterbury, England. I travelled down to the WHO office in New Delhi. At the time, I

12 / Rotman Magazine Spring 2012 had long hair down to the middle of my back and a beard down to large-scale regional conflict. Basically, we’ve got two peoples my belly, and they kicked me out immediately. I returned to the who both, in their minds, own the same piece of land. The Is- ashram and my guru asked, “Did you get the job?” When I said raelis were given that piece of land by people who didn’t own it no, he sent me back down. I went back 15 or 16 times, each time [the British, Europeans and United Nations]. The politics and trimming my beard, and the last time I went in I had borrowed the ethnic, religious, racial and geographic tensions and the way somebody’s ill-fitting suit. Finally, they hired me. they spill over into the rest of the world make the Middle East I started off as the mascot on the smallpox-eradication team; our biggest wicked problem, although climate change is a very they basically hired me because I spoke Hindi and I could type. I close second. don’t think they even remembered that I was a doctor until I had I approach the Middle East with what I’ve learned in the past been there about six months. I wound up staying with the WHO about peaceful, non-violent resistance, and fostering the spirit for 10 years: I was the second or third person on the Asian region- that we really are ‘all in it together’. I look for the things that all al smallpox eradication team, and I turned off the lights when we sides have in common. In dealing with the Israelis, we’ve agreed were done, so I saw the whole program unfold. that we all want a democratic, secular, transparent and honour- In the 20th century, 500 million people died of this disease, able government; and when dealing with the Palestinians, the so not surprisingly, everyone told us, “This is impossible; you message is that true change can only occur through non-violent, can’t eradicate smallpox.” But over a 20-month period, we made peaceful protest. It doesn’t mean that you accept the situation, over one billion house calls, visiting every single house in but you have to agree to non-violent protest. That doesn’t mean once per month to put a ring of immunity around each person it can’t be powerful. with a vaccination. Of course, I was just one person in a growing Basically, I am trying to put to use all the lessons I learned army – the organization had grown to 150,000 people by then. in the Civil Rights Movement, the Anti-War movement and the We had 500 doctors from 35 countries working with us, includ- smallpox campaign. They have a major element in common: in ing Russians and Americans; this was right in the middle of the each case, it’s about building a national movement and a large- Cold War, but as Dr. King had said, ‘we’re all in this together’. scale program. Instead of fighting against each other, we fought against a com- mon demon. You have said that, “Our system is breaking at the seams, and After you’ve seen hundreds of thousands of children die and our fixes have got to be as systemic as our problems.” What rivers that won’t run because of all the dead bodies in them, you do systemic fixes look like? have truly seen the horror of a Hieronymus Bosch painting. But All the things we depend upon – our economic system, religious then one day, smallpox was conquered: it didn’t exist anymore. involvement in daily life and global governance – are broken. How could a person not be optimistic after that? To fix them, we have to deal with them at a different level. Al- bert Einstein said that the problems we have created cannot be The Skoll Global Threats Fund is tackling five key global prob- solved at the same level of consciousness they were created at; lems (see sidebar). What is the ‘wickedest’ one you are cur- they have to be solved at a higher level of thinking. You have to rently working on? go to the very highest level you can think of – which is a change in I would have to say that climate change and the Middle East are global governance. at the top of the list. The Middle East is the more urgent problem, The institutions we put in place after the Second World War while climate change is the gravest systemic challenge. The Arab – Bretton Woods, the UN Security Council, the World Bank – Spring has raised hopes that a new era of positive change may be are no longer working, and neither is our narrow definition of emerging in the Middle East. However, there also exists an un- capitalism. We all agree that we need to have a vital and vibrant usually-high risk of conflict and instability, as the Iranian nuclear economy that creates jobs and economic prosperity, and capital- crisis remains unresolved, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict enters a ism does that better than any other system; but where in the ‘rule new and uncertain phase after the collapse of the peace process, book’ does it say that a corporation is allowed to give unlimited and revolutions and uprisings portend prolonged internal disor- amounts of money to manipulate a political race so that it can der, rapid foreign policy realignments and the disintegration of create a congress or a senate that votes for things that enhance its the regional security order. profits? We’ve added all these things on to capitalism and we’ve In the longer-term, chronic socioeconomic problems re- held it up as an idol. I tell my friends that I’m less worried about lated to youth unemployment and food and water insecurity, the Second Amendment than the Second Commandment – “do exacerbated by climate change, will continue to challenge even not create a false idol and worship it.” the most stable regimes. Addressing these threats will require Economist Larry Summers once said that Macroeconomics action on multiple fronts, none more important than the Israeli- can solve all the problems in the world except for two: externali- Palestinian conflict, which remains the most likely trigger for ties and market failures. And I would argue that all of the global

Rotman Magazine Spring 2012 / 13 If these are all existential threats, my questions is, Where THE MISSION OF THE SKOLL GLOBAL THREATS FUND are the voices of morality, ethics and religion? Why aren’t these things being discussed in churches and synagogues and mosques What we mean by global threats every week? What does it mean to be a religion if you are ignoring Global threats have the potential to kill or debilitate very large existential threats to civilization? It means that you are not pay- numbers of people or cause significant economic or social ing attention, and in my view, you are missing a calling to help the dislocation or paralysis throughout the world. These threats poorest and most vulnerable amongst us. cannot be solved by any one country; they require some sort of a collective response. Global threats are often non-linear, and are likely to become exponentially more difficult to manage if In an ideal world, how would you like to involve Wall Street and ROTMAN’S we don’t begin making serious strides in the right direction in Bay Street in the work on wicked problems? the next 5-10 years. That is actually one of the things that makes me optimistic. It’s been a long time since I’ve been on Bay Street, but in the Sili- INTEGRATIVE THINKING Cross-cutting focus con Valley, our billionaires are very different from those on Wall We believe global threats share causes, challenges and potentially, Street. It’s part of the culture here to get involved in philanthropy cures. We primarily seek to identify and address complex challenges and wicked problems. It’s not that every time somebody takes a PROGRAM common to multiple global threats. Cross-cutting areas that we company public in the Silicon Valley, they automatically get an believe could help society manage these threats include: injection of ‘we’re all in this together’; but just as in some com- At Rotman, we are particularly intrigued with how successful leaders react • Communication: Promote better understanding of uncertainty and risk at every level of discourse, public to political. munities, you’re not a member of the elite unless you fund an art when faced with complex problems that seem to have no right answer. museum, out here you’re not a fully realized success unless you • Governance: Develop more competent governance, includ- How do some leaders come up with better, more effective and more ing both formal functioning structures as well as formal and are engaged in the big problems of the day. informal networks. Entrepreneurs who have made a billion dollars and are to- innovative solutions than others? • Engagement: Create new coalitions and facilitate better tally uninvolved in the great issues of the day are the exception in coordination of actors of all kinds across multiple sectors, with the tech community, not the rule, and that makes me optimistic. I Rotman’s Integrative Thinking Program is designed to enable you to a special focus on ‘strange bedfellows’. am blown away by the people I get to deal with – people like [Uni- Enable access to and promote transparency in tackle the most complicated problems and build new solutions. Taught • Information: versity of Toronto graduate] Jeff Skoll (BASc ‘87, Hon LLD ‘03), data, processes, and financial flows around global threats to in part by Rotman School of Management dean, Roger Martin, named facilitate informed decision making. Sheryl Sandberg, Marc Benioff, John Doerr, Richard Bran- • Innovation: Promote innovations in models, technology and son, Mark Zuckerberg and my dear friend, the late Steve Jobs. by Thinkers50 as the sixth top management thinker in the world, this approaches (including incentivizing for long-term thinking). These people might fight with each other about business issues, course should not be missed. but they are great people. Without exception, they are looking at Our approach big issues, and that makes me optimistic that philanthropy will We work proactively to find, initiate, or co-create breakthrough change, and will be improved by the skill set – if not the resources ideas and/or activities that we believe will have large-scale – that this new cohort of ‘wealthians’ brings to bear. impact, either directly or indirectly, and whether on cross-cutting issues or individual threats. What is your greatest worry going forward? The test of a rst-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two The stakes are so high now that it isn’t just about one small ca- opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the tastrophe in one part of the world anymore. Greece tried to fail alone, but it couldn’t. We will either succeed together as a civili- ability to function. zation or we will fail together. Every time we point our policy at F. SCOTT FITZGERALD, AUTHOR one crisis and we don’t take a step back to see where it fits in the overall trajectory, we make a big mistake. It isn’t a surprise what we have to do; the question is, will we do it? threats we are dealing with are derivatives of externalities and market failures.

You recently said that “what the world needs is a moral move- ment.” Please explain what you meant. If you take a look at the global threats we’re facing, some of them APRIL 19–21, 2012 SEPTEMBER 20–21, 2012 NOVEMBER 1–3, 2012 are actually existential threats to human civilization. Not on the Toronto, Canada London, UK Toronto, Canada order of a massive meteor crashing into the earth, but they defi- nitely threaten civilization as we know it. Certainly, a pandemic Larry Brilliant is president and CEO of the Skoll Global Threats Fund. A physician, epidemiologist, technologist, author, and the former executive that kills 400 million people would eliminate world commerce; director of ’s philanthropic arm, from 1973 to 1976 he participated in no planes would be in the sky for months, not to mention deal- the successful World Health Organization smallpox eradication program. He FOR MORE INFORMATION AND TO APPLY: has also worked for the WHO and UNICEF on eradication and blindness ing with the rampant death and despair. It would totally change www.rotmanexecutive.com/integrativethinkinglondon www.rotmanexecutive.com/integrativethinking civilization, which makes it an existential risk. The same goes for and volunteered as a physician during several disasters, including the Asian Tsunami and the Bihar Floods. Along with many friends, he funded the SEVA [email protected] [email protected] a nuclear bomb exploded in anger, the effects of climate change Foundation, an international NGO where projects have surgically restored and water shortages and the threats posed by the Middle East. sight to over three million people. +44 (0) 7867 522 002 +1 416 978 8815

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