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Tortillas on the Roaster

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Tortillas on the Roaster TORTILLAS ON THE ROASTER (TOR) CENTRAL AMERICAN MAIZE-BEAN SYSTEMS AND THE CHANGING CLIMATE FULL TECHNICAL REPORT MAIN AUTHORS: AXEL SCHMIDT, ANTON EITZINGER, KAI SONDER & GUSTAVO SAIN October 2012 TORTILLAS ON THE ROASTER CENTRAL AMERICAN MAIZE-BEAN SYSTEMS AND THE CHANGING CLIMATE FULL TECHNICAL REPORT MAIN AUTHORS: AXEL SCHMIDT, ANTON EITZINGER, KAI SONDER & GUSTAVO SAIN CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS: LESBIA RIZO, BEATRIZ RODRIGUEZ, JON HELLIN, MYLES FISHER, PETER LÄDERACH, FELIX SAN VICENTE, RICKY ROBERTSON ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS THE AUTHORS WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE FOLLOWING PERSONS AND INSTITUTIONS FOR THEIR VALUABLE SUPPORT: ALDEMARO CLARA (CENTA, EL SALVADOR) AURELIO LLANO (INTA, NICARAGUA) JULIO MOLINA (INTA, NICARAGUA) DANILO ESCOTO (DICTA, HONDURAS) JULIO VILLATORO (ICTA, GUATEMALA) JULIO MARTÍNEZ (ICTA, GUATEMALA) SERGE LANTAGNE (PROSADE, HONDURAS) JHALMAR MARADIAGA (CARE PROSADE, HONDURAS) MARCO TREJO (CIAT, HONDURAS) SAMUEL OCON (CIAT, NICARAGUA) VILIA ESCOBER (CIAT, HONDURAS) FILANDER RODRIGUEZ (CIAT, HONDURAS) NEIL PALMER (CIAT, COLOMBIA) WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE HOWARD G. BUFFETT FOUNDATION FOR THEIR GENEROUS FINANCIAL SUPPORT WHICH MADE THIS STUDY POSSIBLE October 2012 Bibliographic reference /AGGROVOC – to be added October, 2012 © Reproduction of this report is permitted with due acknowledgement of its publication as part of the ‘TORTILLAS ON THE ROASTER: Central American Maize-Bean Systems And The Changing Climate’ project led by Catholic Relief Services, involving CIAT and CIMMYT as principal partners, and funded by the Howard G. Buffett Foundation Contents 1 Foreword ............................................................................................................................................. 11 2 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... 13 3 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 14 4 Project goals and objectives ............................................................................................................... 16 4.1 Analysis of climate change impact .............................................................................................. 16 4.2 Targeting of future interventions ............................................................................................... 17 5 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 18 5.1 Current climate ........................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Future climate ............................................................................................................................. 19 5.2.1 Downscaling of global climate models to local level .......................................................... 20 5.2.2 Prediction of future climate (2020s and 2050s) ................................................................. 20 5.3 Ground-proofing and sampling design ....................................................................................... 20 5.3.1 Climate cluster .................................................................................................................... 22 5.3.2 EcoCrop model .................................................................................................................... 24 5.4 Prediction of future crop growth and production ...................................................................... 25 5.4.1 DSSAT - Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer ....................................... 25 5.4.2 Uncertainty using GCM for future yield prediction with DSSAT ......................................... 27 5.4.3 Beans field trials to calibrate DSSAT model ........................................................................ 28 3.4.4 Predict maize yields with DSSAT ......................................................................................... 29 5.5 Identification of impact focus areas ........................................................................................... 29 5.5.1 Areas where maize-bean systems are no longer an option – Hot-Spots ............................ 29 5.5.2 Areas where maize-bean systems can be adapted – Adaptation Areas ............................. 29 5.5.3 Areas where maize-bean systems will be established – Pressure Areas ............................ 30 5.6 Prediction of socio-economic impacts and focus area vulnerability analyses............................ 30 5.6.1 Impact on yield distribution at the aggregate level ............................................................ 31 5.6.2 Impact at the disaggregate level ......................................................................................... 32 5.7 Development of local adaptation strategies ............................................................................... 32 6 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 33 6.1 Downscaled global and regional climate models ....................................................................... 33 6.2 Climate characteristics and predicted future changes ............................................................... 34 6.2.1 Nicaragua ............................................................................................................................ 34 6.2.2 Honduras ............................................................................................................................. 35 6.2.3 El Salvador ........................................................................................................................... 36 6.2.4 Guatemala ........................................................................................................................... 38 6.3 Climate cluster and potential areas of bean and maize with EcoCrop ....................................... 39 6.3.1 Climate cluster .................................................................................................................... 39 6.3.2 Potential suitable areas of beans with EcoCrop ................................................................. 40 6.4 Quantified impacts on bean production systems ....................................................................... 44 6.4.1 Impact on bean production systems simulated by DSSAT (first analysis run) .................... 44 6.4.2 DSSAT results for 8 trial simulations ................................................................................... 44 6.4.3 Specific country results (average of 8 trials, 1st DSSAT run) ............................................... 48 6.4.4 Specific DSSAT country results on maize production ......................................................... 52 6.5 Identified hot-spots, adaptation and pressure areas for bean production ................................ 64 6.5.1 Results for Nicaragua .......................................................................................................... 65 6.5.2 Results for Honduras ........................................................................................................... 66 6.5.3 Results for El Salvador ......................................................................................................... 67 6.5.4 Results for Guatemala ......................................................................................................... 68 6.6 Identified hot-spots, adaptation-and pressure areas for maize production .............................. 68 6.7 Address uncertainty of DSSAT output using multiple GCM (2nd analysis run) ............................ 69 6.8 Socio-economic impacts and focus area vulnerability analyses ................................................. 72 6.8.1 Focus groups and general characteristics of selected focus areas ..................................... 74 6.8.1.1 Main activities and trends ................................................................................................... 74 6.8.1.2 Livelihoods, food and income ............................................................................................. 75 6.8.1.3 Livelihoods and availability of different capitals ................................................................. 77 6.8.1.4 Perceptions of future threats and opportunities ................................................................ 78 6.8.2 Impact on yield distribution at the aggregate level ............................................................ 79 6.8.2.1 Nicaragua ............................................................................................................................ 80 6.8.2.2 Honduras ............................................................................................................................. 81 6.8.2.3 El Salvador ........................................................................................................................... 82 6.8.2.4 Guatemala ........................................................................................................................... 83 6.8.3 Value of aggregate production losses ................................................................................. 84 6.8.4 Impact at the disaggregate level
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