WINTER-SASCOF-1 Current Prediction System/Verification-

Zahid Deputy Director General Climatology Maldives Meteorological Service [email protected]; [email protected] Chennai, India, 14-16 October 2015

1 The Maldives • 99% of Maldives is sea area and 1 % land area.

2 Weather/Climate Observation network Hanimaadho ●5 manned aviation & o synoptic stations over the country (stretching from about 7° N and Hulhule 0.5° S): ● Hanimaadhoo ● Hulhule Kaadedhoo ● Kaadedhoo ● Kadhdhoo ● Gan Weather/Climate Observation network

AWS: 20 Upper air observation : 1 Weather RADAR : 1 Seismometers : 2 Tide gauge : 3 Satellite picture receiving system (CMA): 1 Weather/Climate Observation network

HA. Uligam

HDh.Makunudh HD.Hanimaadhoo Sh. Feevak oo R.Vaadho o

K. Kaashidhoo

K. K. Vabbinfaru Hulhule K. Male’ Adh. Hawai V.Fulidho Rangali i o Hulhule F.Nilandho Dh.Hulhudhelo i

GA.Villingi li GDh.Gadhdh oo Gn.Fuahmulak u S.HHithadhoo S.Hulhumeedho o

S.Gan Climate of Maldives

6 Climate of Maldives Maldives has two seasons: • Wet season (southwest monsoon extending from mid-May to November). • Dry season (northeast monsoon extending from January to March/April) Climate of Maldives… • In these two seasons the temperature variations are very small as they are moderated by the sea (99% of Maldives is sea area) • Hence Maldives experience a maritime climate. Rainfall Climatology

9 Rainfall variability

10 Monthly rainfall

North NE Monsoon: 16%

Central NE Monsoon: 28%

South NE Monsoon: 36%

11 Spatial mean annual rainfall

12 North East Monsoon Rainfall (Jan and March)

13 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall (Jul, Sept and Nov)

14 Extreme rainfall events: rainfall > 50mm

 Showing decreasing trend (no of days with rainfall threshold value of 50mm decreasing)  In all the years and for all the locations at least 2 rainfall events >50mm  Indicates both bad and good news!!! Prediction System

16 Tools used for rainfall prediction

17 Satellite Application

 CMAcast  FY2 E Satellite image  Receive images every 30 min  IR, Vis, Water vapor & 3D images 19 Prediction system  Based on these and other products, we provide 5 day forecast…and seasonal forecast…  We also use IMD, RIMES and WMO lead centre products for issuing seasonal forecast

20 THE FIRST NATIONAL ClimateMONS Service:OON Seasonal FORUM Climate

PredictionJu lyin 2-3 , the2012 Maldives • MMS started issuingFuvahmulak, seasonalMaldives rainfall forecast in 2012 (Monsoon forum: RIMES)

21

Organized by:

Maldives Meteorological Service

Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

3 Climate Service: Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives • Since then every year we issue seasonal rainfall forecast • Last year issued seasonal forecast 3 times

22 Climate Service: Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives • This year, during first National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF: WMO), Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall forecast was shared with stakeholders.

23 Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives: • So far we have not issued seasonal forecast for northeast monsoon season. • However, it is very important to issue seasonal forecast for north east monsoon season. • During this season many islands of Maldives experience shortage of rainwater.

24

Shortage of rainwater Verification

27 2014 Monsoon rainfall prediction

28 2014 Monsoon rainfall (actual)

Monsoon season rainfall (mm) Average 1994-2013 2014 % Change

769.1 699.9 -9.0 29 2014 Monsoon rainfall (actual)  Overall, Maldives monsoon rainfall for the year 2014 was near normal (9 % less rainfall compared to 1994-2013 period average).

30 Southwest Monsoon rainfall for 2015-Maldives

31 32 Hanimaadhoo

Below-normal

Hulhule

Kaadedhoo

Kadhdhoo Above-normal Gan

33  Below normal for northern and central parts of Maldives.

 Above normal for southern parts of Maldives. 34 Consensus forecast for 2015

35 400 Average 1994-2014 2015 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 June July August September

36 2015 Monsoon rainfall (actual)  Overall, Maldives monsoon rainfall for the year 2015 was above normal (18 % more rainfall compared to 1994-2014 period average).  Northern part shows about 24% less rainfall compared to 1994-2014 period average

37 Thank you… 

38 Some photos Seaplane-Largest fleet in the world Thank you

Tourism  Pic of Maldives (beautiful pic) Fisheries Industry