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State of the World, 1984: a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

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State of the World, 1984: a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society DOCUMENT RESUME ED 241 408 SO 015 436 AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; And Others TITLE State of the World, 1984: A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society. First Edition. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. REPORT NO ISBN-0-393-30176-1 PUB DATE '84 NOTE 268p. AVAIL?BLC FROMW. W. Norton and Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Ave., New York, NY 10110 ($15.95). PUB TYPE Viewpoints (120) -- Books (010) DRS PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS. DESCRIPTORS Conservation (Environment); Depleted Resources; Developed Nations; Developing Nations; EcOnomici; Evaluation; Food; Forestry; Fuel Consumption; Fuels;. *Futures (of Society); Global Approach; International ,Cooperation; International Relations; Natural Resources; Paicy Formation; Recycling; Resource Allocation; Resources; Soil Conservation; Wastes; *World Affairs; *World Pkoblems ABSTRACT The first of a series of annual reports for policy makers, this publication focuses on evaluating changes in the interplay, between the world's changing.respurce base and the economic system. Following an overview, content is divided into 10 additional chapters covering population stabilization, the world's dependence on oil, soil conservation, forest protection, materials recycling, the economics of nuclear power, the development of renewable energy, the future of the automobile, the world food supply, and economic policy formulation. Each chapter is edited by a specialist in the-field and contains several a:ticles by different authors. Examples of subtOpics considered within each chapter are: zero population growth and national fertility declines (population stabilization); petroleum substitutes and government regulations (bil dependence); acid rain and deforestation (forest conservation); waste paper, aluminum, iron, and steel (recycling efforts); wind,, solar, and geothermal energy (renewable energy); and national priorities and "guns or butter" (economic policy formulation). A list of tables and figures, footnotes, and an index are included. (LP) *********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * ,* from the original document. * *********************************************************************** cf, STATE OF THE ft :s.1?). WORLD .2, 1984 A Worldwat,h InstituteReporton Progress TowardaSustainable Society PROJECT DIRECTOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OFEDUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OFEDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION Lester R. Brown CENTER (ERIC) TM document has beenreproduced as received from the person ororgamtoton t901.1bngP It PROJECT ASSISTANT Minor changes have been made toimprove lePa:ductron qualuy Edward Wolf Potnts °Iv** or own** mated latisTdocik mess do sot (womanlyrepresenaotticra/NIE ,... EDITOR posmon Of policy Linda Starke "PERMISSION TOREPRODUCE THIS MATERIAL INMICROFICHE ONLY SENIOR RESEARCHERS HAS BEEN GRANTEDBY Lester R. Brown r William U Chandler RESOURCES TO THE EDUCATIONAL Christopher Flavin INFORMATION CENTER(E,RIC)." Sandra Pastel -..W.WNORTON & COMPANY 1 NEW YORK LONDON i Copyright @ 1984 by Worldwatch Institute ALL RIGHTS RESERVED is Published simultaneously in Canada by Stoddart Publishing PRINTED IN TUE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA The text alibis book is composed in Baskerville. with ) display type set in Casion. Composition and manufacturing by The Haddon Craftsmen, Inc.- 1 FIRST EDITION Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Brown, Lester Russell, 1939 - State of the World -1981. Includes index. Contents: Overview / by Lester R. BrownStabilizing population / by Lester R. BrownReducing dependence on oil / by Lester R. Brown[etc.] i1. Economic history-1971- Addresses, essays, lectures.2. Economic policyAddresses, essays, lec- tures.I. Title. HC59.8766 1984 338,9 83-25123 ISBN 0-393-0183S-0 N. ISBN 17= 393-30171-1 PBK. W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue. New York, N. Y. 10110 W.. W. Norton & Company Ltd., 37 Great Russell Street. London WCIB 3NU 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 .. '3 . WORLDWATCI I INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Orville L. Freeman, Chairman Hazel Henderson UNITEDSTNCES---- , - -------UNITED_STATES ., - - Andrew E. Rice. Vice Chairman Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio) Abd -Ei Rahman Khane UNITED STATES ALGERIA Charles M. Cargille Larry Minear ONITED STATES UNI'l ED siwnis Carlo M. Cipolla Walter Orr Roberts ITALY UNITED STATES Edward S. Cornish Rafael M. Sala:. UNITED STATES 11111LIPPINES Mi IMMO) ul Iii lq Lynne G. Stitt PAKISTAN UNITED STATES 11 'OR INSTITUTE STAFF Brian Brown Marianne Hunter Lester R. Brown Jodi Johnson William U. Chandler David Macgregor Christopher Flavin Sandra Poste! Blondeen Gravely Eduard Wolf Susan Hill OFFICERS Lester R. Brown Blondeeti Gravely PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT Fax GOMM Timothy AtkeSOO TREASURER GENERAL COUNSEL 1 _____ I Contents List of Tables and Figures ix 4 Conserving Soils, by Lester R. Brown Acknowledgments xiii 53 Foreword xv THE CAUSES Gr SOIL EROSION DIMENSIONS OF TIIE PROBLEM 1 Overview, by Lester R. Brown 1 THE EROSION OF PRODUCTIVITY GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS EROSION'S INDIRECT COSTS THE CHANGING ECONOMIC PROSPECT THE ECONOMICS OF CONSERVING SOIL TIIE SHRINKING RESOURCE BASE THE GOVERNMENTAL ROLE ENERGY-RELATED STRUCTURAL THE GLOBAL BALA/ICE SHEET , ADJUSTMENTS LIVING BEYOND OUR MEANS 5 Protecting Forests, by Sandra Poskl THE DEBT OVERHANG 74 THE FORCES BEHIND DEFORESTATION it 2 Stabilizing Population, by Lester R. ACID RAIN: AN E1WEEGING THREAT Brown 20 ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF DEFORESTATION LESSONS FROM RECENT INITIATIVES POPULATION ARITHMETIC THE PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY COUNTRIES WITH ZERO POPULATION , GROWTH 6 Recycling Materials, byWilliamU. RAPID NATIONAL FERTILITY DECLINES Chandler 95 POPULATION VERSUS ECONOMIC THL VIRTUE OF NECESSITY GROWTH . WASTE PAPER POPULATION /RESOURCE PROJECTIONS RECOVERING ALUMINUM NEW POPULATION INITIATIVES IRON AND STEEL STEPS TO A RECYCLING SOCIETY 3 Reducing Dependence on Oil,by Lester it Brown 35 . 7 Reassessing the Economics of Nuclear SUCCESS STORIES Power, by Christopher Flavin THE CONSERVATION CONTRIBUTION 115 PETROLEUM SUBSTITUTES THE SELLING OF NUCLEAR POWER THE ROLE OF PRICE COUNTING COSTS GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND A U.S. FINANCIAL MELTDOWN INCENTIVES THE OUTLOOK IN OTHER INDUSTRIAL THE OIL INTENSITY OF ECONOMIC COUNTRIES ACTIVITY NUCLEAR PO% 'ER IN THE THIRD WORLD THE OIL PROSPECT 'NUCLEAR POWER'S FUTURE 1 . .. 5 (vni) Contents 8 Developing Renewable Energy,by REAL PRODUCTION TRENDS Christopher Ravin and Sandra Pastel DEPENDENCE ON NORTH AMERICA 136 FOOD SECURITY INDICATOPS FARMING THE WIND A CRISIS OF MANY DIMENSIONS TILE RESORGENCE OF WOOD GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 11 Reshaping Economic Policies,by ELECTRICITY FROMsurn.totrr Lester R. Brown 194 ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENTS A REVISED ACCOUNTING SYSTEM NEW ECONOMIC INDICATORS 9 Reconsidering the Automobile's Fu- ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR FULL ture.by Lester R. Brown 157 EMPLOYMENT THE AGE OF THEAtrroNtoanz EQUITY AND STABILITY THE DECLINE IN PRODUCTION NOW GUNS OR BUTTER EFFECTS OF TIIL PRODUCTION DECLINE PRIORITIES: BACK TO THE DRAWING FUEL EFFICIENCY GAINS BOARD ALTERNATIVE FUEL. PROSPECTS Notes 210 A TIME OF REASSESSMENT Index 240 10 Securing Food Supplies,by Lester R. Brown 175 THE GLOBAL. LOSS OF MOMENTUM THE POPULATION/LAND/FERTIEIZER LINK 6 List of Tables and Figures, Chapter 1. Overview 1-1 Oil Intensity of World Economic Output. 1950-83 (in 1980 dollars) 3 1-2World Population Growth, 1970 and 1983 5 1-3Basic World Economic Indicators, at Three Oil Price Levels, 1950-43 (in 1980 dollars) 7 1-4 World Depletion of Oil and Topsoil, 1983 9 1-5 The International Terms of Trade Between Wheat and Oil, 1950-83 "11 1-6United States: Gross Federal Debt, Total and Per Person, 1950-84 15 1-7 Interest Payments on External Debt in Relation to Export Earnings of Major Debtor Countries, 1983 17 1-8World Economic and Population Growth at Three Oil Price Levels. 1950-8,3 18 Chapter 2. Stabilizing Population 2-1 Relationship of Population Growth Per Year and Per Century 21 2-2Principal Sources of World Population Growth, by Country, 1983 22 2-3Countries with Zero Population Growth, 1983 23 2-4Thailand: Share of Married Women Practicing Contraception, 1970-81 25 2-5Countries Experiencing a Decline in Per Capita Income, 1970-79 28 Chapter 3. Reducing Dependence on Oil - 3-1 World Oil Consumption. Total and Per Capita, 1950-83 36 3.2Petroleum Consumption in Major Countries, 1960-82 37 30 Fuel Efficiency in New Automobiles in Selected Industrial Countries, 1978 and Targets for 1985 39 3-4Kerosene Prices in Selected Third World Cities. 1981 42 3 -5 Brazil: Alcohol Share of Auto Fuel Consumption, 1970-82 43 3-6 ,World Price of Petroleum, Current and Constant Dollars, 1951-83 ,44 3-7Gasoline Prices in Selected Commies, July 1981 45 3.8Oil Intensity of Gross National Proditct in Major Countries,-1960-82 48 Chapter 4. Conserving Soils 4% . 4-1 Cropping Systems and Soil Erosion 55 4-2Sediment Load of Selected Major Rivers 57 4-3Observations of Soil Erosion in the Third World 61 4-4Estimated Excessive Erosion of Topsoil From World Cropland 62 4.5Effcct of Topsoil Loss on Corn Yields 63 0 (x) List of Tabks and Figures 4-6Effect of Topsoil Loss on What Yields 64 4-7Increase in Fertilizer Needs for Corn as Soil Erodes, Southern Iva 64 4-8Reduction in Yields of Key Crops as Soil Erodes, Southern Iowa 65 4-9Siltation Rates in Selected Reservoirs 66 , 4-10India: Siltation Rates in Selected Reservoirs 66 4-11United States: Conservation Tillage, 1972 -83 68" . 4 . ' Chapter
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