State of the World, 1984: a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 241 408 SO 015 436

AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; And Others TITLE State of the World, 1984: A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society. First Edition. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. REPORT NO ISBN-0-393-30176-1 PUB DATE '84 NOTE 268p. AVAIL?BLC FROMW. W. Norton and Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Ave., New York, NY 10110 ($15.95). PUB TYPE Viewpoints (120) -- Books (010)

DRS PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS. DESCRIPTORS Conservation (Environment); Depleted Resources; Developed Nations; Developing Nations; EcOnomici; Evaluation; Food; Forestry; Fuel Consumption; Fuels;. *Futures (of Society); Global Approach; International ,Cooperation; International Relations; Natural Resources; Paicy Formation; Recycling; Resource Allocation; Resources; Soil Conservation; Wastes; *World Affairs; *World Pkoblems

ABSTRACT The first of a series of annual reports for policy makers, this publication focuses on evaluating changes in the interplay, between the world's changing.respurce base and the economic system. Following an overview, content is divided into 10 additional chapters covering population stabilization, the world's dependence on oil, soil conservation, forest protection, materials recycling, the economics of nuclear power, the development of renewable energy, the future of the automobile, the world food supply, and economic policy formulation. Each chapter is edited by a specialist in the-field and contains several a:ticles by different authors. Examples of subtOpics considered within each chapter are: zero population growth and national fertility declines (population stabilization); petroleum substitutes and government regulations (bil dependence); acid rain and deforestation (forest conservation); waste paper, aluminum, iron, and steel (recycling efforts); wind,, solar, and geothermal energy (renewable energy); and national priorities and "guns or butter" (economic policy formulation). A list of tables and figures, footnotes, and an index are included. (LP)

*********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * ,* from the original document. * *********************************************************************** cf, STATE OF THE

:s.1?). WORLD .2, 1984 A Worldwat,h InstituteReporton Progress TowardaSustainable Society

PROJECT DIRECTOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OFEDUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OFEDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION Lester R. Brown CENTER (ERIC) TM document has beenreproduced as received from the person ororgamtoton

t901.1bngP It PROJECT ASSISTANT Minor changes have been made toimprove lePa:ductron qualuy Edward Wolf Potnts °Iv** or own** mated latisTdocik mess do sot (womanlyrepresenaotticra/NIE ,... EDITOR posmon Of policy

Linda Starke "PERMISSION TOREPRODUCE THIS MATERIAL INMICROFICHE ONLY SENIOR RESEARCHERS HAS BEEN GRANTEDBY Lester R. Brown r William U Chandler RESOURCES TO THE EDUCATIONAL Christopher Flavin INFORMATION CENTER(E,RIC)." Sandra Pastel

-..W.WNORTON & COMPANY 1 NEW YORK LONDON i

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED is Published simultaneously in Canada by Stoddart Publishing PRINTED IN TUE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA The text alibis book is composed in Baskerville. with ) display type set in Casion. Composition and manufacturing by The Haddon Craftsmen, Inc.- 1 FIRST EDITION

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Brown, Lester Russell, 1939 - State of the World -1981. Includes index. Contents: Overview / by Lester R. BrownStabilizing population / by Lester R. BrownReducing dependence on oil / by Lester R. Brown[etc.] i1. Economic history-1971- Addresses, essays, lectures.2. Economic policyAddresses, essays, lectures.I. Title. HC59.8766 1984 338,9 83-25123

ISBN 0-393-0183S-0 N. ISBN 17= 393-30171-1 PBK. W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue. New York, N. Y. 10110 W.. W. Norton & Company Ltd., 37 Great Russell Street. London WCIB 3NU

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 ..

'3 . WORLDWATCI I INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Orville L. Freeman, Chairman Hazel Henderson UNITEDSTNCES---- , ------UNITED_STATES ., - - Andrew E. Rice. Vice Chairman Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio) Abd -Ei Rahman Khane UNITED STATES ALGERIA Charles M. Cargille Larry Minear ONITED STATES UNI'l ED siwnis Carlo M. Cipolla Walter Orr Roberts ITALY UNITED STATES Edward S. Cornish Rafael M. Sala:. UNITED STATES 11111LIPPINES Mi IMMO) ul Iii lq Lynne G. Stitt PAKISTAN UNITED STATES

11 'OR INSTITUTE STAFF Brian Brown Marianne Hunter Lester R. Brown Jodi Johnson William U. Chandler David Macgregor Christopher Flavin Sandra Poste! Blondeen Gravely Eduard Wolf Susan Hill

OFFICERS Lester R. Brown Blondeeti Gravely PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT Fax GOMM Timothy AtkeSOO TREASURER GENERAL COUNSEL

1 _____ I Contents

List of Tables and Figures ix 4 Conserving Soils, by Lester R. Brown Acknowledgments xiii 53 Foreword xv THE CAUSES Gr SOIL EROSION DIMENSIONS OF TIIE PROBLEM 1 Overview, by Lester R. Brown 1 THE EROSION OF PRODUCTIVITY GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS EROSION'S INDIRECT COSTS THE CHANGING ECONOMIC PROSPECT THE ECONOMICS OF CONSERVING SOIL TIIE SHRINKING RESOURCE BASE THE GOVERNMENTAL ROLE ENERGY-RELATED STRUCTURAL THE GLOBAL BALA/ICE SHEET , ADJUSTMENTS LIVING BEYOND OUR MEANS 5 Protecting Forests, by Sandra Poskl THE DEBT OVERHANG 74 THE FORCES BEHIND DEFORESTATION it 2 Stabilizing Population, by Lester R. ACID RAIN: AN E1WEEGING THREAT Brown 20 ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF DEFORESTATION LESSONS FROM RECENT INITIATIVES POPULATION ARITHMETIC THE PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY COUNTRIES WITH ZERO POPULATION , GROWTH 6 Recycling Materials, byWilliamU. RAPID NATIONAL FERTILITY DECLINES Chandler 95 POPULATION VERSUS ECONOMIC THL VIRTUE OF NECESSITY GROWTH . WASTE PAPER POPULATION /RESOURCE PROJECTIONS RECOVERING ALUMINUM NEW POPULATION INITIATIVES IRON AND STEEL STEPS TO A RECYCLING SOCIETY 3 Reducing Dependence on Oil,by Lester it Brown 35 . 7 Reassessing the Economics of Nuclear SUCCESS STORIES Power, by Christopher Flavin THE CONSERVATION CONTRIBUTION 115 PETROLEUM SUBSTITUTES THE SELLING OF NUCLEAR POWER THE ROLE OF PRICE COUNTING COSTS GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND A U.S. FINANCIAL MELTDOWN INCENTIVES THE OUTLOOK IN OTHER INDUSTRIAL THE OIL INTENSITY OF ECONOMIC COUNTRIES ACTIVITY NUCLEAR PO% 'ER IN THE THIRD WORLD THE OIL PROSPECT 'NUCLEAR POWER'S FUTURE

1 . .. 5 (vni) Contents

8 Developing Renewable Energy,by REAL PRODUCTION TRENDS Christopher Ravin and Sandra Pastel DEPENDENCE ON NORTH AMERICA 136 FOOD SECURITY INDICATOPS FARMING THE WIND A CRISIS OF MANY DIMENSIONS TILE RESORGENCE OF WOOD GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 11 Reshaping Economic Policies,by ELECTRICITY FROMsurn.totrr Lester R. Brown 194 ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENTS A REVISED ACCOUNTING SYSTEM NEW ECONOMIC INDICATORS 9 Reconsidering the Automobile's Fu- ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR FULL ture.by Lester R. Brown 157 EMPLOYMENT THE AGE OF THEAtrroNtoanz EQUITY AND STABILITY THE DECLINE IN PRODUCTION NOW GUNS OR BUTTER EFFECTS OF TIIL PRODUCTION DECLINE PRIORITIES: BACK TO THE DRAWING FUEL EFFICIENCY GAINS BOARD ALTERNATIVE FUEL. PROSPECTS Notes 210 A TIME OF REASSESSMENT Index 240

10 Securing Food Supplies,by Lester R. Brown 175 THE GLOBAL. LOSS OF MOMENTUM THE POPULATION/LAND/FERTIEIZER LINK

6 List of Tables and Figures,

Chapter 1. Overview 1-1 Oil Intensity of World Economic Output. 1950-83 (in 1980 dollars) 3 1-2World Population Growth, 1970 and 1983 5 1-3Basic World Economic Indicators, at Three Oil Price Levels, 1950-43 (in 1980 dollars) 7 1-4 World Depletion of Oil and Topsoil, 1983 9 1-5 The International Terms of Trade Between Wheat and Oil, 1950-83 "11 1-6United States: Gross Federal Debt, Total and Per Person, 1950-84 15 1-7 Interest Payments on External Debt in Relation to Export Earnings of Major Debtor Countries, 1983 17 1-8World Economic and Population Growth at Three Oil Price Levels. 1950-8,3 18

Chapter 2. Stabilizing Population 2-1 Relationship of Population Growth Per Year and Per Century 21 2-2Principal Sources of World Population Growth, by Country, 1983 22 2-3Countries with Zero Population Growth, 1983 23 2-4Thailand: Share of Married Women Practicing Contraception, 1970-81 25 2-5Countries Experiencing a Decline in Per Capita Income, 1970-79 28

Chapter 3. Reducing Dependence on Oil - 3-1 World Oil Consumption. Total and Per Capita, 1950-83 36 3.2Petroleum Consumption in Major Countries, 1960-82 37 30 Fuel Efficiency in New Automobiles in Selected Industrial Countries, 1978 and Targets for 1985 39 3-4Kerosene Prices in Selected Third World Cities. 1981 42 3 -5 Brazil: Alcohol Share of Auto Fuel Consumption, 1970-82 43 3-6 ,World Price of Petroleum, Current and Constant Dollars, 1951-83 ,44 3-7Gasoline Prices in Selected Commies, July 1981 45 3.8Oil Intensity of Gross National Proditct in Major Countries,-1960-82 48

Chapter 4. Conserving Soils 4% . 4-1 Cropping Systems and Soil Erosion 55 4-2Sediment Load of Selected Major Rivers 57 4-3Observations of Soil Erosion in the Third World 61 4-4Estimated Excessive Erosion of Topsoil From World Cropland 62 4.5Effcct of Topsoil Loss on Corn Yields 63

0 (x) List of Tabks and Figures 4-6Effect of Topsoil Loss on What Yields 64 4-7Increase in Fertilizer Needs for Corn as Soil Erodes, Southern Iva 64 4-8Reduction in Yields of Key Crops as Soil Erodes, Southern Iowa 65

4-9Siltation Rates in Selected Reservoirs 66 , 4-10India: Siltation Rates in Selected Reservoirs 66 4-11United States: Conservation Tillage, 1972 -83 68" . 4 . ' Chapter 5. Protecting Forests " 5-1Thal Global Forest Resource Base 75 5-2Projected Annual Deforestation in Tropical Regions, 1981-85 76 5-3Central America: Conversion of Forests to Grazing Land, 1961-78 78 5-4Populations Whose Fuelwood Supplies Cannot Be Sustained, 1980, With Pro- jections for 2000 83 ... 5-5Aunual Production of Sawlogs and Veneer Logs in the Tropics, 1961-79 85 5-6Projected Tropical Forest Resource Base, 1985 90 5-7Establishment of Plantations in the Tropics, 1976-80, With Projections for 1981-85 91 :. 5-8Per Capita Consumption of Wood Products.in Developing Couturies, 1970 and 1980 92 4.

Chapter 6. Recycling Materials . 6-1. United States:Environmental Benefits of Recycling 97 6-2Paper Use and Waste Paper Recycling, Selected Countries, 1978-80 98 6-3Waste Paper Recovery, Selected Countries, 1960 -80 99 6-4Aluminum Use and Recycling, Selected Countries, 1981 104 6-5Aluminum Recycling, Selected Countriei, 1954-81 106 6-6United States: States with Beverage Container Deposit Laws 108 6-7Steel Consumptioff-and Scrap Recycling, Selected Countries, 1980-82 110

Chapter '7. Reatsesking the Economics of Nuclear Power 7-1Worldwide Nuclear Power Commitment, sly End of 1983 118 7-2Projections Made in'1970-83 of 1985 Nuclear Generating Capacity in OECD Countries 126 7-3Estimated Cost of Electricity From New Plants. 1983, With Projections for 1990 On t982 dollars) 134

Chapter 8. Developing Renewable Energy

.., 8-1California: Commercial Wind Farms Installed, by Location, by End of 1985 138 .. 8-2United States: Selected Plants Outside of Forest Products Industry Generating Electricity From Wood 143 . 8:3Worldwide Geothermal Electrical Generating Capacity, June 1983 146 8-4 The Worlds Twelve Largest Photovoltaic Projects, 1983 152

Chapter 9. Reconsidering the Autronobile's Future 9-1World Automobile Fleet, 1950-82 158 9.2World Oil and Automobile Production, 1950-83 160

4 8 7 -_ --- : -PIN ListofThbIes and Figures

9,3United States: Gasoline Service Stations, 1970:-.83 162 9-4United States: Passenger Car Sales by Size, 1970-82 164 9-5Cnited-States:_The Changing New Car. 1975-82 165 9-6Brazil: Esomated Production of Alcohol Fuel From Sugarcane 1970-83, With Projections to 1985 167 9-7United States: Production of Fut.1 Alcohol From Corn, 1980-84 168 9-8Prevalence of Passenger Cars in the Twenty Most Pr pulous Countries, 1981 170

.. Chapter 10. Securing Food Stipples 10-1 World 011 Price and Grain Produclion TrendsrTotal and Per Capita, 1950-83 176 10-2World Grain Production, Total and Per Capita, 1950-83 177 10-3World Grain Production and Fertilizer Use, 1934-38 to 1979-81 179 10-4"The Changing Pattern of World Grain Trade. 1950-83 183 10-5Soybean Exports. Major Exporting Countries, 1960-83 184 10-6Ipdia: Grain Stocks. 1963-83 186 10-7Index of World Food S'ecuriiy, 1960-83 187 48 Countries Experiencing Famine Since 1950 188 10-9World Soil Resources and Excessive Soil Loss, 1980. With Projections to 2000 190 10-10United States: Concessional Grain Exports Under Public Law 480, 1955-82 191 10-11 Allocation Of World Food Programme Emergency Relief, 1963-82 192

Chapter 11, Reshaping Economic Policies 11-1 Income Distribution, Selected Countries 202 11-2World Military Expenditures, 1973-83 (in 1980 dollars) 205 11-3Estimated Diversion of World Resources (0 Military Use, 1980 206

LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1. Overview 1-1 World Exports. 1951-83 18

Chapter 2. Stabilizing Population 2-1Cuba's Cnide Birth Rate, 1950 -82 26

Chapter 3. Reducing Dependence on Oil 3-1 U.S. Residencial and Commercial Use of Petroleum. 19:2-82 39 3-2 Petroleum Used by U.S. Electrical Utilities, 1950-82 41 ... 3-3Oil Intensity of World Economic Output, 1950-83 49 3-4 U.S. and Soviet Oil Production, 1950-83 50 3-5World Oil Production Per Person. 1950-83, With Projections to 2000 51 Ws) List of Tables and Figures Chapter 5. Protecting Forests 5-1 Saw log and Veneer Log Exports, Philippines and Indonesia. 1964-81 86

Chapter 6. Recycling Materials 6-1 World Aluminum Scrap Use, 1955-81 105 6-2U.S. Iron and Steel Scrap Use (as a Percent of Scrap Generated). 1960-82,_ 110

Chapter 7. Reassessing the Economics of Nuclear Power 7-1 Average Generating.Costsfor New U.S. Power Plants, 1983 120 7-2U.S. Nuclear Power Coininitment, 1965-83 123 7-3Expenditures by U.S. Utilities for New Generating Plants, 1970-83 124

Chapter 8. Developing Renewable Energy 8-1.U.S. Residential Wood Use (in Equivalent Barriks of Oil), 1965-81 142 8-2Use of Oil and Wood for Home Heating in Vertits*, 1960181 142 8-3Electricity Generated at World's Largest Geothermal Project, The Geysers, California, 1060-83 147 8-4Animal World Shipments of Photovoltaic Cells, 1975-83 150 8-5Average Market Prices of Photovoltaic Modules.-1975-83 151

Chapter 9. Reconsidering the Autotnobile's Future g A 9-1 Passenget Car Registrations, United States and Rest of World, 1950-82 159 9 -2 World Production of Passenger Cars, 1950-83 159 0-3Production of Passenger Cars, United States and Japan, 1950-83 161 9 -4 Consumption of Gasoline by U.S. Passenger Cars, 1950-82 162 9-5U.S. Automobile Fuel Efficiency, 1950-85 l63 9-6Automobile Registrations, Sweden and Denmark, 1965-82 172 9-7Motor Vehille Production in Pen:, 1965 -81 173

Chapter 10. Securing Food'Supplies 10-1 World Fertilizer Use and Grain Area Per Person. 1950-83 178 10-2U.S. Farm Income, Gross and Net, 192,i0-83 181 10-3U.S. Farm Debt and Net Farm income, 1950-83 182 10-4Grain Production Per Person in Africa, 1950-83 192 Acknowledgments

The idea of a progress report first sur- people inthe project 4facilitatedits faced in a discussion with Larry Rocke- launching. Prominent among these were feller, a trustee of the Rockefeller Broth- Orville Freeman and Andrew Rice, ers Fund, as we were casting about for chairinan and vice chairman respectively projects that could "make a difference." of the Worldwatch-Board of Directors, As we considered this particular possi- who enthusiastically supported the State bility. it became more and more appeal- of the World-1984from the beginning. ing, consistent with the interests of the Besides William Dietel. two other foun- Fund and a logical outgrowth of the In- dation representatives, Scott McVay of stitute's research program. the Dodge Foundation and Anne Firth Qbtaining funding for new projects Murray of the Hewlett Foundation, these days is never easy but in this case strongly endorsed the concept of such a the task was simplified by the willingness report. And finally, the personal interest of Rockefeller Brothers Fund President of George Brockway. board chairman of William Dietel, who was instrumental in W.W. Norton, facilitated speedy publi- theInstitute'sestablishmentseveral cation. years ago, to lead the fundraising effort. Edward Wolf worked' closely with me This relieved me of the duties that so as project assistant from the time the often absorb a project director's time project was launched until the manu- duiing the start-up period, enabling me script went to the publisher. Ted helped to concentrate on producing this first an- with research, served as a testing ground nual edition of the report. Early commit- for new ideas, and reviewed early chap- ments from the Rockefeller Brothers ter drafts. His many skills and commit- Fund, the Winthrop Rockefeller Trust, ment to the project made it immeasur- 'and David Rockefeller, meant the pro- ably easier for me. Authors and readers ject could be launched even while the alike are indebted to Linda Starke, who fundraising effort continued. was for many years editor of the World- In addition to specific project funding, watch Papers, for bringing her excep- the report draws on ongoing Institute tional editorial skills to bear on the proj- research that is supported by several ect. As production coordinator, Linda foundations, including the Geraldine R. also worried about such things as design, Dodge, George W. Gund, William and layout, and proofreading. Flora Hewlett, W. Alton Jones, Edna bozens of outside reviewers have McConnell Clark, Andrew W._ Mellon, helped us strengthen individual chapters and Edward John Noble Foundations, and refine our overall objective. Gerald and the United Nations Fund for Popula- 0. Barney and Erik Eckholm reviewed tion Activities. the entire manuscript at short notice, The personal interest of several 'key and the final copy owes much to their

1 (xw) Acknowledgments comments. hc following people re- sistcd the research for the nuclear en viewed individual chapters or genet-, crgy chapter and helped draft some early ously shared their knowledge and exper- sections of the renewable energy chap- tise: Norman Berg, C. Fred Bergsten, ter, while Paige Tolbert laid the ground- LeonBouvier, Ken Cook, Richard work for the geothermal section before. Curry. Herschel Cutler, Derrell Dc Passe, the report was even begun. From New Harold Dregnc, J. Rodney Edwards, York. Milcna P. Roos used her intimate Martin Enowitz. Scott Fenn, Gail Fin- knowledge of the United Nations system stcrbush, Kathleen Gray, -Tom Gray, to gather research documents, some of Holly L. Gwin, Maureen Hinkle. Howard them unpublished, for several chapters. Hjort. Robert Johnson. Charles Koma- Ile administrative skills of Blondeen noff, George Ledec, Amory Lovins, Paul Gravely, Felix Correll, and Marge Hub- Maycock, Sandie Nelson, Philip Patter- bard helped maintain, an exceptionally son, AndrewRice, Ross Pumfrcy, Rich- stable work environment for the re- ard Rosen, R. Neil Sampson, Alfredo search staff. David Macgregor managed Sfeir- Younis, and Edward Sullivan. to maintain the, flow -of Worldwatch Pa- None of our debts is greater than that pers despite all the extra activity as- to the Worldwatch Institute staff. whose sociated with the report's completion. dedication and efficiency did much to We extend special thanks to visitors to smooth the rough spots on the road to the Institute, among them Gary Hirsh- production. Linda Doherty and Susan berg of the New Alchemy Institute; Hill handled the bulk of the typing and Amory and Hunter Lovins of the Rocky wrestled cheerfully with the countless Mountain Institute; Helena Norberg- idiosyncracies of a new word proc,:ssing. Hodge of the Ladakh Project; and B.B. system. Marianne Hunter pitched in to Vohra, Director of the Ministry of Envi- e,ase the sudden crunch of last-minute ronment in I :dia. In relating their ex- typing and helped proofread the manu- periences they conveyed an enthusiasm script at a critical stage. Brian Brown and and commitment, which assured us not Jodi Johnson jqined us jut when extra only that change is possible, but that it is hands were neided and ktpt the office already well under way. functioning normally. John Foggic as- Lester R. Browns

12 .

, Foreword

This is the Worldwatch Institute's first special ireas of responsibility, such as State of the World report. The intent is UNICEF'S State of the litorld's Children. not merely to describe how things area The United Nations Environment Pro- but to indicate whether they are getting gramme publishes a state of the environ- better or worse. The yardstick by which ment report. The Food and Agricultu e we measure progress is sustainability Organization has been publishing for the extent to which our economic and many years a State of Food and Agriculture social systems are successfully adjusting an the U.N. Fund for Population Activi- to changes in the underlying natural re- ties issues an annual report on popula- source base. tion. The primary focus in State of the World At the national level, some, govern- --1984 is on the interplay between the mentsjapan and Israel, for example changing resource base and the eco- issue annual "state of the environment" nomic system. Recent concern with this reports. In the United States, the Con- relationship was heightened by publica- servation Foundation last year put out tion of The Limits to Growth in 1972 and State of the Environment-1982 in an effort dramatically underlined the following to supplement the diminishing efforts of year by the OPEC oil price hike. The the U.S. Council on Environmental return of famine during the early seven- Quality. Half-a-world away this was par- ties after nearly a quarter-century's ab- alleled by The State of India's Environment sence raised questions about long-term 1982, prepared by the Centre for Sci- food security. These and other issues led ence and Environment in New Delhi. the U.S. Government to undertake a Within the U.S. Government, the De- study of global resource issues facing the partment of Energy issues an Interna- country as it approaches the twenty-first tional Energy Annual and the Department century, which culminated in The Global of Agriculture maintains a steady flow of 2000 Report to the President, published in reports tn the world food situation. 1980. Woridwatch's contributiontothis In an effort to regularly monitor growing dialogue is an attempt to ana- changing conditions worldwide, a num- lyze not only the major developments ber of organizations now issue annual and trends in these specific areas but reports. The International Monetary also the way they relate to each other. Fund, for example, publishes a World The canvas on which this report is Economic Outlook. The World Bank pro- sketched is necessarily broad. Its pur- duces the World Development Report, an pose is not to replace any of the more i annual review ofeconomic conditions in detailed reports, but rather to supple-

developingcountries.SeveralU.N. _ment them and perhaps even to enhance agencies compile yearly reports in their their usefulness by integrating their a

*I 13 (lan) Foreword findings in a broader_analysis. We try to port, we anticipate covering hydro- determine, for example, how the deple- power, solar collectors, alcohol fuels, tion of oil reserves affects the global and methane generation from biological economy, both directly and indirectly. wastes. How will the shift from oil to renewable In general, this first assessment shows energy alter global economic structures? that existing priorities in the use of both How does population growth affect soil fiscal and natural resources are not com- erosion and what effect will erosion have patible with the long-term sustainability on food production? Will population of society. A resumption of the broad- growth eventually be slowed by falling based improvements in the hutnan con- birth rates or by iising death rates? dition that characterized the third quar- These questions may not yet be at the ter of this century will require a shift in top of national political agendas, but we development strategies and a reordering believe they are issues that will shape the of priorities. A major purpose of this re- uman prospect. port is to provide a sense of that needed The State of the World-1984 tries to reordering and of new ways to evaluate measure progress toward sustainability improvements in the human prospect. and determine why some countries are We have tried to design a report that doing better on a given front than oth- will be useful to policymakers. For exam- ers. Is progress due to the play of market ple, in analyzing energy trends we have forces, tax incentives, public education, sought to help national energy planners government regulation, the emergence who are faced with difficult choices. The of a new technology, or intelligent lead- -chapter on nuclear power economics is ership? We try to convey what is working the most comprehensive international ar.d 4;hy. We see the report as a vehicle compilation currently available on the for quickly disseminating news of inno- costs of nuclear power. Unfortunately, vative initiativeswhether itbe Swe- few energy planners have had access to den's national plan to use reverse vend- these international cost data. The dtap- ingmachinestorecycle aluminum ter that charts the reduced dependence beverage containers, Thailand's innova- on oil worldwide enables national en- tive family planning incentives, or Cali- ergy officials to compare their progress Ibritia's policies to spur a massive break- with that in other countries. through in wind electrical generation. One by-product of global assessments The State of the World will not cover the of this sort is the identification of basic same topics each year but rather will deal information gaps. Our effort to analyze with the shifting constellation of issues topsoil loss from erosion indicates that that relate to sustainability. This year, few countries have systematically gath- for example, we have analyzed world- ered data on soil formation and loss on wide soil erosion; next year we may focus their croplands. Although soil is a basic on the conversion of cropland to non- resource, most countries lack the data farm uses. This year we have a detailed needed for its intelligent management. analysis of deforestation and the various The analysis underlying the report is tree planting efforts that are under way. integrated, or what is sometimes de- We may focus next on the condition of scribed as interdisciplinary. We have the world's grasslands, a major source of consciously chosen not to consider is- protein in the human diet. This year's sues exclusively in biological, economic, chapter on renewable energy examines political, or other disciplinary frame- wind power, firewood, geothermal en- works. Rather, we attempt to examine ergy, and photovoltaics. In the 1985 re- issues in all their complexity, much as

.14 Foreword lXV11) policyntakers nuts' consider them. Any- tracts have been signed in some 24 lan- one who has attempted to combine eta- guages. For seventh Worldwatch Papers Itigic and economic analysis understands the number of copies its print in all lan- the difficulties inherent in interdiscipli- guages combined has passed the hun- nary research. Even the starting assump- dred thousand mark. tions of the two disciplines conflict. Sales of Worldwatch Papers and book Where ecologists see specialization as a )yalties have helped put the Institute. a risk, economists are inclined to see it as ,:,,stprofit research organization, in the a virtue. Ecologists see the world in unusual position °learning a large share terms of cycles, such as hydrological and of its financial support. Indeed, these carbon cycles; economists are more earnings and the interest on qVnings likely to see it in terms of continuous saved, which now account for neSrly h:11 exponential growth. Ecologists seek a of the Institute's budget, have provided yield that can be sustained over the long sonic of the funding for this project. term; economists are more interested in The launching of this global assess- maximizing short-term profits. ment represents a natural evolution of Given these differing frames of refiT- the Institute's ongoing research pro- ence, the stumbling blocks in integrated gram on energy, environment, food, research are obvious. Confining re- population, and other global issues. In search on an issue 40 a particular disci- undertaking this progress report, the In- pline is obviously much more comforta- stitute has relied on Its existing informa- ble. Ecologists can wrap themselves in tion-gathering networks, including pub- the principles of ecology and economists lication exchanges with some 70 other bare their economic theories, but inter- research institutes around the world, disciplinary researchers lack such a secu- and an extensive international network rity blanket. They can selectively draw of contactsinagriculture, business. on theory from various disciplines. but demography, economics. energy. envi- when the theories do not mesh they ronment, and science. The Institute has must rely on judginent and occasionally also taken advantage of its location in even on intuition. Washington, D.C., to tap the informa- The tone of this report is not intended tion sources of the U.S. Government, to be optimistic or pessimistic. Neither World Bank, International Monetary unfounded optimism nor undue pessi- Fund. local universities, and other re- mism provide a solid foundation for search organizations. policymaking. Only realism will do. Since this is our first State of the World, III we welcome suggestions on how to make With this proj,t. Worldwatch is re- succeeding editions more useful. Com- sponding further to a strong worldwide ments and queries may be directed ei- demand for policy-oriented interdisci- ther to me or to the authors of individual plinary research, a demand that is re- chapters. flected in sales of the 67 studies-57 Lester R. Brown Worldwatch Papers and 10 booksthat Worldwatch Institute the Institute has published during its 1776 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. first several years. For the first six World- Washington. D.C. 20056 watch books, where arrangements for foreign language editions have been December 1983 largely completed. 74 publishing con-

15 STATE OF THE WORLD 1984

16 , 1

Overview Lesu4er R. Brown

a The news headlines of the eighties de- financial speculation that eventually cul- scribe the worst worldwide economic minated in the Great Depression. Once crisis in half a century. In many countries under way, the Depression seemed to incomes are falling. Record budget defi- feed on itself as international trade de- cits plague national and local govern- clined and countries turned inward, ments on every continent. The external adopting protectionist policies that fur- debts of several countries in the Third ther reduced trade. World and Eas n Europe verge on the Although the economic crisis of the unmanageable. Coiporate bankruptcies eighties is exacerbated by economic mis- in major industrial countries are more management. its roots lie in the deple- numerous than at any time since the tion of resources, both nonrenewable Great Depression. Unemployment and renewable. During the fifties and ratchets upward in both industrial and sixtiesthe world economy steadily developing countries. More countries boosted its use of oil, a finite resource, are threatened with famine than at any putting it on a path that by definition was time in the modern era. not sustainable over the long run. The The belated U.S. economic recovery depletion of oil reserves, and its effect in1983 notwithstanding, the world on world oil prices, is the most immedi- economy is in the worst crisis since the ate threat to world economic stability, Great Depression. There are, however, but the depletion of soil resources by ntajor differences between the thirties erosion may be the most serious long- term threat. The unprecedented dou- and the eighties. The crisis of the thirties bting of world food supplier over the last was almost entirely the product of eco generation was achieved in part by .,.nomic mismanagement during the twen- adopting agricultural practices that led ties, of ill-conceived economic policies to excessive soil erosion, erosion that is that fueled an economic boom until it draining the land of its productivity. went out of control. On both sidei of the After a point agriculture can no longer Atlantic the boom psychology led to be sustained-and the land-is-abandoned: Units of measurement are usually metric unless Sustainability is an ecologic concept common usage dictates otherwise. ,r with economic implications. It recog-

17 1x1 Slate of Me World-1984 nines that economic grin% th and human producing biological systems have spi- well-being depend on the natural re- raled. source base that supports all living sys- Today's -conoznic headlines describe tems. Technology has greatly expanded a world that is finding it difficult to live the earth's human carrying capacity, within its means. Eager to maximize out- most obviously with advances in agricul- put loc.:.iy, we are borrowing. from to- ture. But while the human ingenuity em- morrow, Our economic problems are of bodied in advancing technology can our own making, the product of short- raise the natural limits on human eco- sighted economic policies designed to nomic activity, it cannot entirely remove promote expansion at any cost, of agri- them. A sustainable society is one that cultural policies designed to boost food shapes its economic and social systems output at the expense of soils, and of so that natural resources aud life-sup- failed or nonexistent population poli- port systems are maintained. Today we cies. study the archaeological sites of earlier In our preoccupation with monthly civilisations that failed to do so, deplet- economic indicators we have lost touch ing their soils, mismanaging their irriga- with the environmental resource base on tion systems, or otherwise embarking on which the economy rests. We keep de- an nnsusta;nable development path. tailed data on the stock of plant and I Itamanity's newly acquired capacity to equipment while virtually ignoring the self - destruct with nuclear weapons has condition of soils, the health of forests, added another dimension to the concept and the le% el of water tables. Only when of sustainability. Recent research by U.S. environmental deterioration or resource and So% iet scientists on the climatic and depletion translates into economic de- biological consequences of nuclear mar cline do we seem to notice it. indicates that a successful preemptive nuclearstrike by either superpower would lead to a "nuclear winter." the end of civilization and quite possibly the end of human life on earth. Against GOOD NEWS,. BAD NEWS the backdrop of this new potential for self-destruction, achi%ing sustainability Over the past generation the world has presents unprecedented political and yielded to an excessive dependence on moral challenges.' oil, moved from farming soils to mining Nuclear weapons are not the only ex- them, and begun, co consume the econ- plosive force threatening civilization. As omy's biological support systems. In populations have multiplied. their de- short, the world economy has moved mands has e begun to exceed the sustain- onto a development path that is unsus- able yield of the economy's biological tamable. Although at least some political support systems. In country after coun- leaders and their economic advisors are try these thresholds have been crossed, vaguely aware of this, the effort to return leading to consumption of the basic re- to a sustainable development path is not sources themselves. Deforestation is re- yet well defined. Most national govern- ducing firewood and lumber supplies, ments, lacking a clearly defined sustain- driving up the cost of cooking fuel in able development strategy, are attempt- Third World villages and the cost of ing to "muddle through." As a result, housing everywhere. Overhshing and successes are infrequent, often outnum- overgrazing have become commonplace bered by failures. as human claims on these major protein- Tile essential components of a sus-

18 Overview (3) tainable, developmentstrategyare Table 1-1. Oil Intensity of World straightforward. They include stabilizing Economic Output, 1950 -83 , population, reducing dependence on (in 1980 dollars) oil, developing renewable energy resources, conserving soil, protecting the Oil Used earth's biological support systems, and Per $1,000 recycling materials. The good news is Year of Output that in each case at least a few countries (barrels) are making some impressive progress, 1950 1.33 ptoviding a model for others. The bad news is that in only one area, reducing 1955 1.46 dependence on oil, is the worldwide per- 1960 1.67 formance close to adequate. After several years of h ying to reduce 1965 1.90 dependence on oil, the world finally 2.17 turned the corner in 1979. Since then, 1970 1971 2.21 progress has been 'broadly based, ex- 1972 2.23 ceeding expectations. Oftentimes histor- 1973 2.27 ical turning points are tied to a specific 1974 2.13 event. With oil, the turning point came 1975 2.05 in 1979, when OPEC oil prices rose 1976 2.15 sharply for the second time in six years. 1977 2.16 After peaking in 1979 at 23.8 billion bar- 1978 2.14 rels, world oil consumption has fallen 1979 2.15 sharply in each of the four years since, declining some 14 percent.2 . 1980 2.03 After three decades of rising oil use, it 1981 1.93 was clear by the early seventies that the 1982 1.86 world's growing dependence on a dwin- 1983 1.74 ,dling resource, though convenient, was SOURCES:AMerican Petroleum Institute; Herbert not sustainable. Throughout this period R.Block.The Planetary Rodna en 1980(Washing- oil use per unit of output was rising. Be- ton, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 198t): and tween 1950 and 1973 the oil used per Worldwatch Institute estimates. $1,000 worth of gross world product the development of nuclear power (GWP) climbed from 1.33 barrels to would. surge forward, beginning to ' 2.27 barrels, increasing the oil intensity the void that would be left by oil. But this of economic output by 71 percent. (See was not to be. In 1970 the Organisation Table 1-1.).Durihg the seventies the oil for Economic Co-operation and Devel- used per unit of GWP reached a plateau, opment (OECD) projected that its mem- but after the second oil price rise of the. bersthe Western industrial countries seventies it began a steady decline, fall- plus japanwould have 563,000 'mega- ing from 2.15 barrels per $1,000 of watts of nuclear generating capacity by product in 1979 to 1.74 barrels in 1983, 1985. A 1978 OECD projection foresaw a drop of 19 percent. In this critical area a 1985 generating capacity of just 214,- the world was not only headed in the 000 megawatts, just over one-third the right direction, but making impressive earlier figt:re. A 1983 Worldwatch pro- gains. jection shows a further reduction. to Fallowing the 1973 oil price hike en- 183,000 megawatts, largely because of err/ planners generally assumed that the cancellation of partially completed ...

t 19 .3 Stateofthe World-1984 plants. in the United States. where the Worldwide. over the million homes now industry has been plagued by nightmar- heat water with rooftop solar collectors. ish cost o% el runs. no new reactors hate As oil prices climbed during the seven- been ordered since 1976 and some 87 ties, energy-deficit Third World coun- reactor orders have been c ant sled. Bar- tries, aided by international develop- ring any More new starts.U.S.nuclear ment agencies. turned to hydropower 'towel ma) peak in the early nineties. development with renewed vigor. Both The counts) that led the world into the industrialand developingcountries age of nuclear power may well lead it demonstrated an interest in mini-hydro ont.3 development. a resourcelargely ignored With nuclear power failing the market during the era of cheap oil. And in Brazil test and with serious ett%ii onmental and nearly one-fourth of all automotive fuel meteorological consequences associated used in 1983 came from agriculturally with the expanded use of coal. the world based fuels, principally alcohol distilled isturning to renewable energy re- from sugarcane.6 sources. Although the development or If living standards are to be main- tent wable energy has not received the tained and improved as energy becomes goy ernmetual support it deserves. some more expensive, the systematic recycling in& ideal countries have made spectac- of materials will have to replace the ular gams. In the ,United States. where throwaway economy. Some countries al- forests are %add) underhat%ested or not ready understand this. For example, the harvested at ail firewood now supplies Netherlands and Japan now lead the twice as much delivered energy as nu- world in paper recycling, reusing nearly clear pow er. Public attention focuses-on half the piper they consume. In the the soaring residential use of firewood. United Sates, nine states have passed which has tripled since 1973. !.etit is legislation requiring returnable deposits exceeded by inthistr)'s use of wood and on beverage containers, making it likely wood waste as a fuel.' that over 90 percent of these containers will be returned for recycling and reuse. Worldwide recycling of aluminum has The country that led the world into increased from 17 percent in 1970 to 28 percent in 1981. More important, recy- the age of nuclear power may well cling of this energy-intensive metal ap- lead it out. pears to be poised for sharti gains in the years ahead? On the population front, the news has A dramatic breakthrough in wind elec- been mixed. After peaking shortly be- trical generation is also occurring in the fore1970at about 1.9 percent per year, United States. in California. By the end world population growth has slowed to of 1983 an estimated 4.600 wind tur- 1.7 percent in the early eighties. Unfor- bines were installed in wind farms. 95 tunately this decade-long ebbing of the percent of them built during the preced- growth rate has not been sufficient to ing 24 months. Their collective genera- reduce the actual number added. The ting capacity totals some '300 megawatts annual increase, which was roughly 70 of electricity. enough to satisfy the resi- million per year in 1970. has now edged dential electrical needs of some120.000 up to 79 million. (See Table 1-2.) Until Calfornia ns.5 the rate of world population growth Other renewable energy success sto- slows markedly. improving the human ries are scattered around the globe. condition will be difficult.

20 Ovennew ( 51 . Table 1-2. World Population Growth, and hills, planting in trees an area two- 1970 and 1983 thirds that in rice, the conittry's food staple Although national successes are Annual rare, there are scores of promising local Rate of Annual initiatives. such as in the Indian state of YearPopulation GI on di .Inct ease Gujarat, that must be multiplied many (billion) (percent) (million) times if future firewood needs are to be 1970 :3.68 1.9 70 assured.10 1983 4.66 1.7 79 Soil erosion, as mentioned, has now &ono:I.,: Populaiion Itefo owe Bureau, World Pops. reached epidemic proportions. But no (awn Data Sheet (W.hlusigion. D.C. annual). major country. industrial or developing, has responded effectively to this threat At the national level, however, some to sustainable agriculture. As pressures countries have performed adinirabl). on the land have intensified over the past TwelvecountriesinEuropehave generation, erosion has increased until brought population growth to a halt. close to half the world's cropland is los- More importantly, China, home to '22 ing topsoil at a debilitating rate.' 1 In the percent of the world's people, has re- United States, the crop surpluses of the duced its population growth to just over early eighties, which are sometimes cited 1 nercent pet year. comparable to that in as a sign of a healthy agriculture, are some industrial countries. In a near des- `partly the product of mining soils. perate effortito break the montetittun of With food security, what little good its population growth, China has shifted news there is has been overshadowed by from birth planning and the adoption of the bad. During the early eighties, world birth quotas at the commune or produc- food reserves increased, climbing to tion-team level to the national goal of a their highest level in a decade. Unfortu- one-child family.8 nately, reserves accumulated for the Elsewhere in the Third World, prog- wrong reasonthe lack of progress in ress has been uneven. Ibdia, the other raising the purchasing power and per poptilation giant, appears to be getting capita food consumption of the world's its family planning program back on poor. Since 1973, little progress has track after several years of neglect, but been made in raising food consumption valuable time has been lost. Without de- per person for the world as a whole.19 .cisive action, India's population of 715 While North American agricultural out- million is projected to grow by another put surged ahead during the late seven- bill'it peopleas many as China now ties anti early eighties, that in Africa and hasbefore stabilizing.9 the Soviet Union lagged. In Africa falling The lack of movement toward sustain- per capita food production has, since ability in several other key areas is also of 1970, slowly but steadily dragged that great concern. Efforts to protect the continent into a crisis. Perhaps even world's forests are not faring well. Each more disturbing, the forces leading to year they shrink by an area roughly the this deterioration in Africarapid popu- size of Hungary. in the great majority of lation growth, soil erosion, and underin- Third World countries deforestation is a vcstment in agriculturemay well lead serious matterone with long-term eco- to a decline in per capita food produc- noinic and ecologic consequences. One tion in other regions as well, such as notable exception to this generalization northeastern Brazil, the Andean cotin- iTSouifi Korea. which-has successfully tilei,CetitFil America, Indian sub- reforested its once denuded mountains continent,and the Middle East. -

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(6) State of the World-1984 The widely dispai ate t egional perfor- though poorer and hungrier, are better mances in food production are mirrored armed. in the shift in world grain trade patterns. On another key frontthe threat of More and more countries have become nuclear annihilation there was serious importers, increasing their dependenct; regression. Hard-line posturing by the on the North American breadbasket. In .to superpowers raised concern over 1982, the United States controlled 55 nuclear war to a new high. Many of the percent of world grain exports; Saudi estimated 50,000 nuclearweapons, both Arabia. by comparison, controlled 32 strategic and tactical, are poised for percent of world oil exports. to This launch at the push of a button.16 If ever overwhelming reliance on one region unleashed. this destructive power would for food leaves the world vulnerable to bring civilizatiqn as we know it to an end. North American climatic variability and The one encouraging development din politically inspired export embargoes. this front has been the rising level of public awareness, particularly in Europe and the .United States. Public interest The value of arms imports into the groups, religious organizations. profes- Third World has now climbed sional associations, and business groups above that of grain imports. have joined hands in an effort to reduce the potential for nuclear annihilation. On balance, perhaps the key gain during the early eighties has been this growing, lf the scientific and financial resources understanding of the many threats to the needed to put the world economy on a sustainability of civilization. By this indi- sustainable footing in all these areas are sator, at least, we are gaining. to be mobilized, they may have to come at the expense of the military sector. But during the years since 1979. a period distinguished by a lack of economic progress, the militarization o; the world economy has accelerated, almost as THE CHANGING ECONOMIC though mounting economic stresses PROSPECT were causing political leaders to try to offsetthese insecurities by spending For most of humanity the century's third more on weapons. Between 1979 and quarter was a period of unprecedented 1983,globalmilitaryexpenditures prosperity. World output of goods atid climbed from $554 billion to $663 bil- services expanded 5 percent annually, lion (1980 dollars), an increase of one- tripling in less than a generation. Rapid fifth, and pushed global military expen- growth had become commonplace, built ditures to $145 per person.' 4 into the aspirations of consumers, the Not only do many of the world's scien- earnings projections of corporations, tists devote their skills to devel ping And the revenue expectations of govern- new weapons, but political leads ap- ments. Few stopped to calculate that pear to devote more and more of their even a' 4 percent rate of economic time to military matters. An disap- growth. if continued, would lead to a pointingly, the value of arms imports fiftyfold expansion in a century. And into thelltird_31orIcLhas_now.c bed _ evenfewer considered the pressures this above that of grain imports. is As a re- would put on the earth's resources, both sult, many Third World populations, renewable and nonrenewable.

22 Overview ...../It Cheapenergy. spec the ally 'cheap oil,1' energy abundance h ending has damp- Piste literally Elided this record et° ened the outlook for investors and 'con. nomic expansion; At less than S2 a bar- sumers alike. (See Table I-3.) .rel. oil was so cheap that now. from the Among the sectors most affected by . perspective of tile late twentieth century, the changing oil situation is the oil in- it aPpears to have been almost a free dustry itself. a major part of the world good. It was not only inexpensive. but it economy. As demand fiir oil dropped was versatile and easily transported,: It because of high prices. world economic could be used equally well as a fuel for activity has been reduced by downturns generating electricity or powering main oil production. transport, and refin- chinery or as a chemical feedstock. ing. After increasing by well over 7 per- Cheap oil pushed back_ many of the cent per year frc,m 1950 to 1973, oilpro- traditionairesourceconstraints-on duction _dropped to 2 percent per year growth. In its various forms it was sub- between 073"and 1979._ After the sec- stituted for scarcer resources. Fertilizer ond oil price hike of the 'severities`-it tt.is substituted for cropland. kerosene began todecline. falling sonic 5 percent for firewood. synthetic fibers for natural per year for the next four years. ones, and. as tractors replaced draft ani- Rising oil prices have also slowed the mals, gasoline and diesel fuel for forage growthinworldgrainproduction. and gram. Cheap oil had become a safety (Other factors slowing the growth hi' waive, alleviating pressure on less abun- food output include soil erosion, water dant resources. But as the price of oil shortages, and diminishing returns on began to climb, substitution became fertilizer use.) Although attention has a more costly and the safety tAvebegan to focused on the effects of higher oil prices close. on food production, the effect of escalat- The transition to costly oil has affected ing oil prices om,the world economy has world economic performance both di- also weakened the growth in demand for rectly, and indirectly. Capital require- food. After increasing by 3.1 percent per ments in the energy sector, especially for year from 1950 to 1973, world grain pro- the development of nets energy sources. duction has averaged less than 2 percent have shared. draining capital from other per year ever since. sectors. Rising real energy costs have led Industries that are even more directly , to higher wage demands and general in- tied to oil have been hit still harder by flation. And realization that the age of the changing oil outlook. Of these none

Table 1-3.Bask WorldEconomic Indicators at Three Oil t rice Levels, 1950-83 (in 1980 dollars) Annual Growth Oil !Nice Oil Grain Automobile Gross World Pet sod Per Barrel Pt odtu don Production Production Product (dollars) (percent) 1950-73 2 7.6 31 5.8 5.0 1973-79 12 2.0 1.9 1.1 3.5 1979-83 31 -5.`2 1.01 - 3.0 1.7 'Severedrought in North Affirm.' and Africa and a record Idling of cropland under e S farm programs 'educed the 1983 banes' sell beloo trend. sooct.s: Rated on data from American l'etrolffin . institute. U.S. Departmentof Agriculture. Motor Vehicle Komfacturers Astocmtion. mid U.S. Dep.unitent of Stm. It

23 (81 State of the World-1984 has suffered mote than automobile pro- growth or decline in the basic sectors. duction, the world's largest manufactur- Economic growth in the next several ing industry, Between 1950 and 1973 years, and quite possibly throughout the world auto production expanded by 5.8 rest of this century, is more likely Jo be percent per year. With oil averaging $12 slow than rapid, more likely to average 2 a barrel between 1973 and 1979, the percent per year than the 4-5 percent growth in auto output slowed markedly, that characterized The century's third to just over I percent per year. When the quarter. - world oil price was pushed over $30 in Assessing future economic prospects 1979,the slowdowninproduction is complicated by the difficulty of sepa- growth becatne a decline, with output rating the effects on growth of the falling from 31 million automobiles in changing resource situation, evidenced 1979 to an estimated 27 million in 1983. for example by the 1979 oil price hike, Although this fourear slide is obvi- and the cyclical behavior of the world ously not a (rend to be projected to the economy. In short, is the slow growth of end of the century, it does suggest that the 1979-83 period merely a cyclical the automobile's future is clouded. downturn, as some economists argue, or The effect of higher oikprices on auto- is it the early stage ea transition to a mobile sales is both direct and indirect. future when economic growth will be Most immediately, higher fuel prices dis- much slower? .The analysis underlying courage automobile ownership. But to this report, which assesses the effects of the extent Shat the changing oil situation a broad range of resource constraints on tnintilates Into slower economic growth, world economic growth, indicates it is groilt in the number of potential buy- the latter. ers also slows. Although it is analytically difficult to separate these two effects, they are combining to alter the automobile's future. A decline in the demand for automobile, ripples through the world economy, depressing demand in basic supply THE SHRINKING RESOURCE industries such as steel, rubber. and BASE glass. Companies producing auto parts and machine tools are also adversely Of all the resources that are being de- affected, Downturns in these basic in- pleted, losses of oil and topsoil pose the dustries have contributed to the eco- greatest threats to economic progress nomic growth slowdown in the leading and stability. With reserves of both industrial societies. being steadily depleted, the world is fac- Given the emerging constraints ontjng major economic adjustments that, at growth, particularly in such basic sectors'a minimum, will extend over several as food and energy, the world will have decades, .J great difficulty resuming the rapid eco- Oil reserves are commonly measured nomic growth of the 1950-73 period. at two levels, those that are proven and High-technology industries such as mi- the larger. less precise category of those croelectronics and biotechnology can that are ultimately recoverable. Proven expand dramatically, helping to improve reserves have been physically verified the efficiency of energy use and boost and can be extracted profitably at cur agricultural production, but their rent prices, relying largely on natural growth cannot begin to offset the slower pressure in the oil-bearing structures.

24 'WillP' 0.

Ottriview ( 9 ) Ultimately recoverable reserves include land, there are sonic 3.5 trillion tons of not only an estimate &any additional oil topsoil that can be used to produce food, likely to be discovered, but also any re- If erosion on cropland exceeds new soil serves that can he extracted using the formation by 23 billion tons per year more expensive secondary andtertiary (the rate that is calculated in Chapter 4), -. recovery techniques, which, rely on the topsoil reserves -will disappear in about use of pressure and solyents. Extracting 150 years, only a few decades after the all the estimated 2.1 trillion barrels of exhaustion of ultimately recoverable re- ultimately recoverable oil would require serves of oil. prices well above current ;leve1s.17 There are however, important differ- By the late seventies annual world oil ences in the ways these two basic re- consumption was just under 23 billion sources are being depleted. For exam- barrels per year, nearly 3 percent of ple,itisreasonable to expect that proven reserves of 670 billion barrels. It essentially all the world's oil reserve. 3 will was this wholesale depletion of reserves one day be depleted, but this is unlikely that helped convert the world oil econ- to occur with topsoil because not all the otny from a buyer's to a seller's market world's cropland is stibject, to excessive xi:almost overnight. M the 1983 oil pro- erosion under normal agricultural use. duction level of 18billionbarrels, Yet much of the world's topsoil will be proven reserves of oil would lait 37 lost if steps are not taken to protect it. years. (See Table 1-4.) Applying this A second contrast in the depletion of , same rite to the ultimately recoverable these two basic resources is that the reserves would stretch production out to world is far more aware of oil depletion 114 years, obviously a preferable time anditsconsequences. Governments span. everywhere have responded to the grow- As (he detnand for food has climbed ing scarcity of oil but such is not the case with each passing year, the world has for soil. With only occasional excep- begun _to mine its soils, converting them tions, agricultural and population poli- into a nonrenewable resource. Even in cies have not taken soil depletion into an agriculturally sophisticated country account. In part, the contrasting aware- like the United States, the loss of soil ness of oil and soil depletion is the un- through erosion exceeds new soil forma- derstandable product of differing levels tion on over one-third of the cropland.is of information. The world oil crisis re- Assuming there is still on average seven ceived a great deal of attention largely inches of topsoil on the world's crop- because oil is a widely traded commod- Table 1-4. World Depletion of Oil and Topsoil, 1983 Annual s Rate of Time tesource 1983 Depletion To Deplete (billion barrels) (years) Proven Reserves of Oil 670 18 37 Ultimately Recoverable Reserves 2.100 18 114 of Oil . (billion tons) Reserves of Topsoil on Cropland 3.500 23 152 sonacts: Auicrtran Petroleum Institute. World Emig. Conference.Sunr al Ennio Rommes 1980 (Loudon: 19801. topsoll recedes are Worldly:m.1; insittwe estimates Isce (lamer 4).

25 061 Stateofthe 6World-198-1

ity. With ink's% c outlines being importers. and West Germany, and the United With soil. however, the crisis is a quiet States are the countries most obviously one. Estimates are regularly made for oil affected. One-third of West Germany's ...... --" reserves. adjusting annually both for de- forests show signs of damage, and some pletion through production and new dis- 500 000 hectares of forests in Czecho- coveries. Such a procedure does not slovakia are dead or deteriorating. In exist for world soil reserves. Indeed, not North America there are also signs that until topsoil has largely disappeared and trees are dying and that forest productiv- food shorragescr even famine have de- ity is declining as a result of growing soil veloped does this loss become apparent. acidity. One of the disturbing characteristics of this forest dieback is that by the time th'e problem becomes evident it The depletion. of oil reserves will may he too late to save the trees.20 , In many areas grasslands are disap- make the remaining soil even more pearing under the weight of excessive valuable. numbers of cattle, sheep, and. goats- In the United States the Council on Envi- ronmental Quality reported that one- The effect of price on the depletion of third of U.S.rangeland(excluding the two resources also varies. Higher Alaska) was in fair condition and one- prices for oil raise the amount that can third in poor.2i Long evident in the Mid- be ultimately recovered, but higher dle East and North Africa, the excessive prices for food may simply lead to more- pressures are spreading to Africa south intensive lane use and faster topsoil loss. of the Sahara, to the Indian subconti- And the depletion of oil reserves will lient, and to China, Australia. and Mex- make the substitution of energy for crop- ico. Desertification. the word that de- land niorc difficult, rendering the re- scribes the conversion of productive maining soil even more valuable. ranchland into desert, has become_ part Beyond these key resources of oil and of the international lexicon. soil, a daunting range of renewable sup- Between 1950 and 1976 the world's port systems are deteriorating under grasslands sustained a doubling of beef mounting pressures. As a result of over- 'ou :put, but sincethenthere has been rue cutting and clearing for farming and growth' atall. With overgrazing now grazing, the world's forests are shrinking commonplace,theworld'sherders, by nearly 1 percent per year. Each year farmers, and ranchers are no longer able the forested area of the tropics, where to ekpand their herds apace with world most deforestation occurs, is reduced by population. The result has been 2 steady 11.3 million hectares. and each year the decline in the world's per capita beef demand for forest products increases.19 consumption since 1976 and stagnation Distribution is a key factor. Although in this subsector of the world agricul- there is an abundance of fuelwood in Si- tural economy.22 beria. it might as %dell be on the moon as Fisheries, too, are under excessive far as Fthiopihn villagers are concerned pressure. The world fish catch, which because the oast of transporting fire- had tripled between 1950 and 1970, has wood long distances is prohibitive. increased little since then. Its annual rate A newly recognized threat to the of increase fell from nearly 6 percent in world's forests, particularly those in the 1950-70 to less than 1 percent. The northern tier of industrial countries, is catch from some of the leading fisheries acid rain. Poland, Czechoslovakia, East in the North Atlantic peaked in the late AI.

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Overview (ri) sixties and early seventies and is now The dimensions of this shift are per- only a fraction of what it was 15 years haps best illustrated by the change M the ago. Ev'en recently exploited fisheries. relative prices of grain and oil, both such as those in the Gulf of Thailand. widely traded commodities. Between have reached their limits and begun to 1950 and -1973 a Valid of wheat could decline in the face of the growing world be traded for a barrel of oil. (See Table demand for protcin.23 1-5.) Then.as the price of oil jumped, the In the eyes of some scientists, the loss relationship began to shift. By 1977, it of genetic diversity as plant and animal took 4.4 bushels of wheat to buy a barrel species disappear is the principal threat of oil; in 1982. it took nearly 8. For the to a sustainable society. At the broadest United States, which paid much of its level this consists of the loss of many mounting oil bill with farm products, species of plants and animals as habitats this shift in the terms of trade stimulated are destroyed. Clearing tropical forests. an enormous expansion of agricultural with their richness of flora and fauna, exports. can eliminate countless uncatalogued species that have yet ;v be evaluated for Table 1-5. The International Terms of their potential commercial value. Once Trade Between Wheat and Oil, 1950-83 again. mounting economic demands are leading directly to a resource deteriora- Amount of World Price tion that adversely affects the economic Wheat To prospect, in this case by reducing the Bushel Barrel Buy a Barrel potential for new discoveries and for Year of Wheat of Oil of Oil commercial innovations based on those (dollars) (bushels) discoveries." 1950 1.91 1.71 0.9

1955 1.77 1.93 1.1

1960 1.58 1.50 1.0 ENERGY-RELATED 1965 1.62 1.33 0.8 STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS 1970 1.50 1.30 0.9 1971 1.68 1.65 1.0 Aside from its adverse effect on eco- 1972 1.90 1.90 1.0 notnic growth, the severalfold increase 1973 3.81 2.70 0.7 lit the price of oil during the seventies 1974 4.90 9.76 2.0 contributed to a massive redistribution 1975 4.06 10.72 2.6 of wealth from oil-importing countries 1976 3.62 11.51 3.2 to those that export petroleum. A few 1977 2.81 12.40 4.4 industrial countries-the United King- 1978 3.48 12.70 3.6 dom, Norway, and the Soviet Union- 1979 4.36 IF 97 3.9 have benefited from higher oil prices. 4.70 28.67 6.1 But it has been the members of the Or- 1980 4.76 32.50 6.8 ganizationofPetroleumExporting 1981 1982 4.36 33.47 7.7 Countries (OPEC) and Mexico. all of 1983 4.85 28.50 6.6 which were preindustrial societies, that 50VICCES: international Monetary Fund. Alonihly Ft. gaMed most from the dramatic shift in nannat Seaman 1980 Yearbook (Washington, D.C.: the terms of trade between oil and other 1980) and 1983 Yearbook (Washington. D.C.: products. 1983).

ofe..Aso (121 State of the World-1984 lite same was title for olher countries the fall in oil production was abrupt an 1 -paying for oil with 'agricultural com- swift, oil exports fell even faster. Witli;n modities such as tea, coffee. or sugar. a few years after being lauached, some of During the early seventies, when a barrel the supertankers were u;'1 aiwanese of oil was still priced at $2, it could be shipyards being cut up for scrap metal. purchased with 4 pounds of tea; in 1983, Vast amounts of capital, steel, and en- over 30 pounds were required. For ergy had been wasted buils:ing shipping coffee, 0 - terms of trade went from 4 capacity that would never be usee." pounds in the early seventies to 22 Paralleling the decline in oil produc- pounds in 1983. With sugar, the most tion was a fall in refining. Excess capacity widely exported farm commodity in the resulted not only from the fall in output Third World, the "sugar price" of a bar- but also from the continued construc- rel of oil went from just over 30 to nearly tion of new refineries in oil-exporting 200 pounds during the same period. countries, which sought to maximize In a sense, the terms-of-trade gain for their income by selling less crude oil and the oil- exporting countries is a desirable more refined products. In 1982 alone, result oldie rise in price associated with 67 refineries in the United States and 15 the rapid depletion of an important non - in Europe were closed completely; many renewahle resource. Unfortunately. the others operated at less than full capac- resulting- redistribution of wealth was ity." not only from industrial to preindustrial .As mentioned earlier, outside the oil societies but also funn preindustrial so- industry itself the greatest adjustments cieties that did not have oil to those that occurred in the automobile industry. did. By any measurement, the handful of Nearly one-third of the 780,000 automo- countries that had oil to sell greatly in- bile workers in the United States were creased their slice of the global eco- unemployed by 1980. Both the number nomic pie. It was their short-term re- of autos produced and their design were wardforsharing anonrenewable' changing. Even as production started to resource with the rest of the world. fall, the reins of industry leadership were The OPEC increase in the price of oil shifting from the 'Jnited States to Japan, launched the transition to alternative en- where higher quality, more-fuel-efficient ergy sources, a shift that is restructuring cars were rolling off the assembly lines. the global economy. Some sectors are In 1980, for the first time since automo- shrinking; others are expanding rapidly. bile production began, the United States just as the shift from coal to oil reshaped ,lostits leadership position to Japan, the economic system during the first which produced 7 million cars compared three-quarters of this century, the shift with 6.3 million in the United States." from oil to alternatives will bring pro- As world automobile production fell, found changes in the decades ahead. so did the number of automobile deal- One of the industries most mmedi- ers. In the United States, still by far the ately affected by the oil downturn was worlds largest automobile market, some shipping, whose tanker fleets carry the 2,500 dealers closed their doors during oil to the consuming countries. The in- the two years after the oil price hike of troduction of more-efficient supertank- 1979. And service stations also felt the ers that sparked a shipbuilding boom in crunch. As gasoline consumption in the the late sixty , and seventies also led to United States fell some 13 percent from enormous growth in tattier tonnage at a ifs peak in the late seventies, the number time when production of oil was on the of service stations heeded to handle this prink of filming downward. Although gasoline also declined."

28 (Mime (13) The corollary 01 these sin inking sec- mai fields in the Philippines and New tors oldie economy has been thc expan- Zealand and others are relocating near sion amber industries as the price of oil heavily forested areas or those that are climbed. Energy conservation has be- rich in sunlight. That this process is pro- come a business in its own right: The ceeding most rapidly in the aluminum retrofitting of both residential and busi- industry is not surprising. given the en- ness stniciures in the northern industrial ergy intensityoraluminum production. countries has provided millions of jobs. Conipanies are particularly attracted to The production and export of solar cheap hydroelectricity in sparsely popu- water heaters has also become a major lated regions that are accessible by activity in several industrial countries. In water. Promic.ent among the relocation California. the sale of solar equipment sites are the Brazilian Amazon. Sumatra, reached $400 million in1982. Tlw and remote Canadian locations such as search for alternative sources of energy Goose Bay, Labrador. Within the Soviet in Brazil has ledto a sugarcane-fed alco- Union aluminum production is shifting hol fuel distillery sector. For the first to Siberia, where there is an abundance time in the modern era bicycle sales ex- of hydropower but few people.31 ceeded those of automobiles in key in- Perhaps the most extreme early exam- dustrial countries such as the United ple of the shift of production facilities States. the United Kingdom, West Ger- across national borders is the migration many, and japan.29 of aluminum smelters from industrial As the advantages of recycling scrap countries to the Brazilian Amazon. In- paper, aluminum, and iron and sled vestments in this industry to exploit the have become clear, a thriving interna- enormous hydroelectric potential of the tional trade in scrap has developed. Amazonian Basin have come from Bra- South Korea and Mexico. for example. zilian firms as well as those based in Can- get half their paper from recycling scrap. . ada, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the much of it imported. The highly compel- United States, and West Germany. In hive electric arc sled mills now being contrast to the situation in many indus- built in some industrial countries and trial countries, where aluminum produc- several developing ones rely almost en- tion is falling as plants are closed, Bra- tirely on scrap metal rather than virgin zil's aluminum output is expanding and ore. Worldwide, a vigorous aluminum appears likely to continue to do so as recycling industry has begun to evolve investment plansmaterialize.62Al- since the oil price increases of the seven- though the gradual relocation of the in- ties.30 ternational aluminum industry to sites Dramatic though the falls have been in where cheaper renewable power sources some economic activities and impressive are available will be costly, exploiting re- though the gains have been in others newable energy resources for such pur- since the mid -seventies,the adjustments poses may be essential to the evolution It have only just begun. In a great many of a sustainable economic system, fields, such as renewable energy development, vast growth lies ahead. At this point the economic outlines of a sustainable society are only barely visible. The long-term shift from oil to r new- LIVING BEYOND OUR MEANS ables is leading to a geographic rtnic- turing of global economic act. .ty, . ome As this overview of global ecologic and industries are moving toward gent economic conditions indicates, we are

23 (Li) Ski le of the Worid-1984 living beyond our means, largely by bor- today. Although shifts in the Humboldt rowing against the future. In addition to Current may also have affected the an- the widely recognized deficit financing chovy fishery, there can be little question practiced by governments in an effort to that overfishing contributed to its col- maintain short-term consumption levels, lapse. Tie derision to maximize the the world is engaging in wholesale 11;o. short-term yield has cost Peru heavily in logical and agronomic def eit financing. long-term income, jobs, and foreign ex- As the demand for p ducts of the change." basicbiologicalsystemsgrasslands. forests, and fisherieshas exceeded their sustainable yield, the productive The world is engaging in wholesale resource bases themselves are being consumed. In economic terms, the world biological and agronomic deficit is beginning to consume its capital along financing. with the interest. With biological systems, as with income-earning endow- 'news, this is possible only in the short The adoption of agricultural practices run. that lead to excessive soil erosion is per- In addition to the decimation ofThird haps the most widespread example of World forests for firewood and for Um- living beyond our means. This mounting be: exports described earlier, the de- agronomic deficit is a result of efforts to struction of forests by acid rain and air extract more and more food from the pollution in the northern tier of indus- land with increasingly intensive methods trial countries is another manifestation of cultivation. In many countries the loss of living beyond our means. The failure of productive topsoil has contributed to to invest enough in emission controls for growing food deficits. coal-burning power plants in Poland. Economists convert reported trends Czechoslovakia. West Germany, and the in the value ofoutput into real output by United States is helping keep electricity deflating the numbers to eliminate the costs down but is also destroying forests. effects of inflation. A similar technique is In effect, society is getting cheaper elec- now needed in agriculture, where cur- .tricity in the short run by sacrificing for- rent production is inflated by the use of ests over the long run. practices that cannot be sustained. In the With world fisheries there are innu- United States, for example, soil scien- merable examples of biological deficit tists estimate that17 million of the financing. One of the most dramatic was roughly 350 million acres in crops are the Peruvian anchovy fishery. A study eroding so rapidly that they should be undertaken by U.N. Food and Agricul- withdrawn from production immediately ture Organization marine biologists in and planted to grass or trees to avoid 1970 indicated that the highest yield this losing their productive capacity en- fishery could sustain was 9.5 million tons tirely." Other land that is now planted per year. The Peruvian Government, continuously to row crops can be kept in eager to maximize the immediate return cultivation over the long term only if it is rather than the sustainable yield, permit- converted to rotation cropping, alternat- ted the catch to approach 13 million tons ing corn or soybeans with, for example, per year in the early seventies. The pre- grass or hay. If current U.S. agricultural Jdictable result was the collapse of the output were adjusted for these factors, fishery. The catch dropped to less than 3 then we would know better what our million tons per year where it remains "real" or sustainable output is.

30 Overview (15) Similarly. where water used for irriga- failed to adjust population and eco- tion leads to a declining water table or nomic policies to the changing resource theexhaustion of an underground situation and instead have engaged in aquifer, an alternative series of agricul- deficit financing to maintain consump- tural output data should be developed tion levels. Nowhere is this more evident that would indicate the sustainable out- than in the United States, where the Rea- put. In the U.S. southern plains, for ex- gan administration's budget deficits, ac ample, much irrigation comes from the tual and projected. for 1981 through Ogallala aquifer, an essentially nonce- 1985 will increase the federal debt by an chargeable water resource. The increase estimated $692 billion, raising it from in output that was associated with the $914 billion to $1,606 billion. The Rea- conversion from dryland to irrigated gan deficits will closely approach those farming in this area is a boost that will of allprevious administrations com- last for only a few decades. Indeed, the bined. (See Table 1.6.) Over this period reconversion to dryland farming has al- every man, woman, and child in the ready begun in parts of Colorado, Kan- United States will have incurred an aver- sas, and Texas. age of $2,800 in additional public debt In addition to these biological and $11,200 fcr a family of four." Not only agronomic deficits, the early eighties has has the Unit..Y1 States mortgaged its fu- witnessed w enormous increase in debt, both public and private. Underlying the Table 1.6. United Stater Gross Federal apparent vitality of U.S, agriculture, for Debt, Total and Per Person, 1950414 example, is a soaring debt,burden. Be- Gross Debt tween 1977 and 1983 U.S, farm debt in- Federal Annual Per creased from $100 billion to $215 bil- Year Debt Increment Person lion. This compares with annual net farm income during the early eighties of (billion dollars) (dollars) some $22 billion per 'year." The in- 1950 257 1,691 crease in debt is largely the result of 1960 291 1,616 farmers borrowing against inflated land values. As land prices soared from the 1970 383 1,875 early seventies through 1980, farmers 1971 41(.1 27 1,980 trapped by the cost price squeeze bor- 1972 437 27 2.089 rowed more and more money. But as 1973 468 31 2,216 land prices turned downward after 1980 1974 486 18 2.279 more farmers have been threatened with 58 foreclosure than at any lime since the 1975 544 2.525 88 2.904 Great Depression. 1976 632 1977 709 77 3.226 1978 780 71 3,514 1979 834 54 3,712

1980 914 80 4.024 THE DEBT OVERHANG 1981 1.004 90 4,378 1982 i,147 143 4,955 Perhaps the principal economic manifes- 1983 1,384 237 5,921 tations of our inability to live within our 1984 1,606 222 6.827 means are soaring national fiscal deficits soolices: Reonotole Report of the President and Stalutr and foreign debts. In too many coun- cal ethuart of the ended States 1982-8.1 (Washing- tries,nationalpolitical leaders have ton. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983).

31 061 State of the World-1984 ture, but this huge national debt now come a net :mporter of forest products. hangs like a dark cloud over the world importing some $221- million worth in economy. sure to push interest rates up 1981." Livestock herds are dwindling in in world capital markets for years to some African countries as grasslands de- come. teriorate, depriving them of a traditional Aggravated by the record real interest source of export earnings. For these rates in the United States M-late 1982 countries, and others such as Peru, with and 1983, external debt has continued its heavy loss of fish meal exports, the to expand throughout the Third World. mismanagement of biological systems Indeed. of all the economic problems contributed to a trade deficit. Resource ficing the world in the mid-eighties..depletionwhether boosting the price none seeins quite so intractable as the of oil imports, increasing the need for management of huge external debts in food imports. or depiiving borrowing the Third World and Eastern Europe. By countries of raw material exports the end of 1983. developing countries figures prominently in the worsening owed some $700 billion. The hard cur- debt situation. rency debt of the East European coun- Some oil-exporting countriesalso tries, excluding their ruble debt to the found themselves in a financially precari- Soviet Union, was $53 billion. Together. ous position. Given the extremely low these two groups owed three-quarters of real interest rates during the high infla- a trillion dollars." tion years of 1979 and 1980, 'borrowing Several converging forces contributed seented attractive to these apparently to the record debt levels. The 1973 oil credit-worthy governments. What was price adjustment led to a modest in- not foreseen was the extent the demand crease in borrowing by many oil-import- for petroleum would weaken as a result ing countries. For most oil-deficient of both conservation in importing coun- countries, however, it was not until 1979 triec and the worldwide slowing of eco- that the debt load began its steep climb. nomic growth. The failure to anticipate Close on the heels of this came high in- the drop in exports and oil prices led to terest rates that sharply boosted the cost serious miscalculations in oil-exporting of debt servicing. At the same time the countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, and prolonged global economic slowdown of Venezuela. 1980-83 reduced the volume of Third The difficulty of managing these World commodity exports and in most mounting external debts can be seen in cases their prices as well. a combination the'relationship between the cost of debt that sharply reduced export earnings. servicing and exports. Half to two-thirds The precise contribution of thise of all export earnings are now required sources ofdebt growth varied by individ- merely to pay interest on foreign debt in ual countries. In some.tthe depletion of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, the key resources reduced export earnings Philippines, and Turkey. For the Third or raised import needs. For many Third World generally, one-fourth of export World countries, the loss of topsoil con- earnings are claimed for this purpose. In tributed to the rising demand for food many countries; debt servicing require- imports, Exporters of tropical hard- ments are so large that little foreign ex- wood, such as the Philippines. Thailand, change remains to import essential com and Nigeria. are lo3jng this valuable modities such as oil. food, and industrial source of foreign exchange as wood har- machinery and parts. (See Table 1-7.) vesting exceeds the sustainable yield of Because the debt problem threatens their forests. Indeed. Nigeria has be- the viability of banks in the major Indus-

32 Overvsew (IV Table 1.7. interest Payments on External Debt in Relation to Export Earnings of Major Debtor Countries, 1983

Share Total Estimated of Export External Export Earnings to Country Debt Earnings Pay Interest' (billion dollars) (percent) Brazil 93.5 17.5 64 Mexico 86.6 22.2 47 South Korea 40.3 19.4 25 Argentina 38.5 9.2 50 Venezuela 31.5 12.9 29 Indonesia 28.8 16.8 21 Poland 27.0 10.2 31 Turkey 23.6 5.2 54

, 22.7 5.7 47 Yugoslavia 20.0 10.3 23 Chile 18.7 4.1 54 Thailand 13.5 8.4 19 Peru 12.5 3.7 41 Malaysia .11.3 12.4 11 Taiwan 8.5 27.5 4 Ecuador 7.1 2.1 38 'Assumes tmerest rite of 12 percent. tour debt service, including principal repayment. is of course muchlatger. soottem: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and International Monetary Fund. trial coUturies, it has grabbed the atten- health to the global economy and a re- tion of leaders in the industrial world as sumption of strong growth in interna- few other Third World economic prob- tional trade." Other analysts, including lems ever have. For example, in many those atthe International Monetary instances outstanding loans by major Fund and the Institute for International- U.S. banks to debt-burdened Third Economics, make the same point, in- World countries exceed these banks' dicating that the debtor developing capital assets.99 countries and those in Eastern Europe If a wave of defaults were to engulf the can work their way out from under the 'Third World and some of their loans debt load with a return to a more tradi- were to go bad, U.S. banks would face tional rate of in the world econ- collapse unless rescued by Washington. omy and inworldorld trade 40 At a minimum, the inability of debtors to At issue is whether a rapid rate of repay the principal will reduce capital global economic growth can be sus- available from major banks for new loans tained. Since 1979 the world economy in industrial countries. has expanded at an average of 1.7 per- In the preface to its MOM Deb Tables, cent per year, exactly the same as popu- published in 1983, the World Bank ob- lation growth. This means that on aver- serves that "the resolution of these diffi- age there has been no increase in world culties lies in a restoration of economic output per person. Some countries, of

33 (18) State of the World-1984 course. have registered continuing gains Billion in per capita income, which means that 1Dollars others have experienced declines. 2.000 As discussed earlier, the deptetion of natnralcapital,particularlyoil,has slowed world economic growth. (See Table-8.) When oil was priced at $2 a barrel, the world economy grew at an exceptional 5percent per year,or roughly 3 percent faster than population, allowing for substantial gains in per capita income. From 1973 to 1979. when the price of oil averaged $12 a barrel, the rate of economic growth dropped to 3.5 percent, roughly double the rate of pop- 1951 1969 1970 1480 1985 ulation growth. But since' 1979, when Figure 1-I. World Exports, 195145 the price of oil has averaged $31 per barrel and when other resource constraints commercial banks to continually add to on growth have intensified, the world the current outstanding debt of the economy has barely kept pace with pop- Third World and Eastern Europe. ulation growth. Nor is future growth in international Given the likely continuation of high trade likely to be rapid. According to the oil prices and the growing influence on Intern rtional Monetary Fund, the value long-term growth of numerous other in- of world exports peaked at $1,868 bil- hibitors such as topsoil loss. freshwater lion in 1980 and fell to roughly $1,650 scarcity, grassland deterioration, defor- billion in 1983, a decline of nearly 12 estation, and militarization of the world percen' (See Figure 1-1.) The General economy. long-term world economic Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, mea- growth may not substantially exceed 2 suring toe volume of trade, shows only a percent a year. This certainly'svould not negligible decline in trade for this pe- be enough to help Third World corm- riod. But measured by value or volume, tries work their way out of debt. And, there has been no growth in world ex- given this growth prospect. the eco- ports thus far during the eighties.41 nomic climate is unlikely to encourage Several factors are restricting world Table 1.8. World Economic and Population GrowthatThree Oil Price Levels, 1950-83 Annual Growth Gross World Oil Pricc Gross Produa Period Per Barrel World Product Population Per Person (dollars) (percent) 1950-73 2 5.0 1.9 3.1 1973-79 12 3.5 1.8 1.7 1979-83 31 1.7 1.7 0.0 SOURCESOil price data arc from International Monetary Fund: gross world product data are from Herbert R. Block. As Pk:wary Product on 1980 (Washington. D.C.: U.S. Department of State. 1981) andWorldwatch Instituteestimates. population data are fromUmtcdNations and Worldwatch Insti- tute estimates.

34 Overview (19) trade during the early eighties. such as such a large sector, the localization of the economic slowdown and severe im- energy production will contribute to the port restrictions in debtor countries that overall localization of economic activity. are struggling to improve their trade bal- In combination, these new influences ance. In addition. the slower global eco- on world trade suggest it may be unreal- noinic growth has led many countries to istic to expect it to resume the growth attempt to protect domestic employ- that prevailed prior to 1979. If this is ment and production by adopting pro- true, something more imaginative than tectionist trade measures. But over the the existing :'muddle through" ap- long term it is the declining role of oil in proach is needed if the world is to avoid the world economy that will constrain a decade of economic stagnation. Even growth in trade. Oil, the engine of worse, a continuation of the "muddle growth in world trade for a, generation. through" approach could lead the world is no longer spurring trade expansion as into an unmanageable economic crisis. it once did. The 14 percent fall in world To break out of this mold will require oil consumption since 1979 was ex- leadershipleadership that will almost ceeded by an even greater decline in oil certainly have to come from the United trade, since importing countries cut con- States and the International Monetary sumption more than oil-exporting coun- Fund. Unfortunately, the U.S. Govern- tries did.4? Although the declining de- ment, with its vast budget deficits, is con- pendence on oil lowers trade, levels, it tributing to the crisis rather than ameli- stems from more-efficient use and the orating it. shift to sustainable energy sources, both Better understanding of the origins of of which contribute to economic sustain- the current economic crisis is the key to ability. formulating workable policies. Fortu- As the curtain slowly descends on the naiely there is a growing awareness that age of oil, investments in more energy- conventional economic policies are no efficient technologies, in other fossil longer working and that many or our fuels. and in renewable energy resources economic difficulties are rooted in the are expanding. Of these. only the fossil depletion of the resource base. This fuels, coal and gas. are traded and they heightenedawarenessisnecessary, are not as easily or widely transported as though not sufficient, for the formula- oil. As the world shifts to conservation tion of national population and eco- and renewable resourceswhether nomic policies that will put the world on wood, hydropower, wind energy, geo- a sustainable development path, one thermal energy. or any of the many oth- that will restore a broad-based improve- ersenergy production will become ment in the human condition. more localized. As energy production is

J 2

Stabilizing Population Lester R. Brown

Progress at halting world population scarcities, and a declining standard of growth has been extraordinarily uneven living. during the last decade. Some countries The relationship between population have been highly successful, others com- and economic growth is also changing. plete failures. Some have reached zero When the world economy was expand- population growth without trying. At ing at 4 percent or more per year, the one end of the spectrum are several averagerateof nationaleconomic European countries that have comp- growth was well above that of even the leted the demographic transition and most rapidly expanding population. But whose population growth has ceased. the much slower economic growth of the At the other end are some 34 Third eighties means national rates are begin- World countries whose populations are ning to fall below population growth in expanding at 3 percent or more annu- many of the countries with high birth ally.' rates. The failure of these governments Assessing national population policies to introduce effective population poli- is complicated by the changing criteria des is leading to a broad-based decline of success. Until recently, progress was in living standards. In these circum- defined simply in terms of slowing popu- stances rapid population growth does lation growth, so as to widen the margin not merely slow improvements in in- of economic growth over that of popula- come, it precludes them. tion. During the seventies, however, the inadequacy of this goal became evident. Forestswereshrinking.grasslands deteriorating, and soils eroding. Biolog- ical thresholds of sustainable yield were POPULATION ARITHMETIC crossed in scores of countries. When a biological system is being taxed, even a Over the past decade many people con- modest increase in human numbers can cerned about rapid population growth be destructive. Failing to halt population have cited with some relief the gradual growth before such a critical threshold is decline in the growth rate. Peaking at crossed leads to food shortages, fuel something like 1.9 percent around 1970,

36 Stabehznig Populaidon (21) si annual growth in world population de- dynamics of this growth can be gained dined to 1.7 percent in 1983. Although from analyzing the annual additions of this is encouraging, the rate is not falling various countries. Leading the listis fast enough to reduce the number of India. where there are now over 15 mil- people added each year. In 1970 world lion more births than deaths each year. population increased by 70 million: in (See Table 2-2.) China, which reached 1983 the addition was 79 million' By the the one,hillion mark in 1981, adds 13.3 criterion of sheer numbers, the world- million) people annually. fewer than wide effort to get the brakes on popula- India because of its much lower growth tion growth is falling short. rate. Together. these two demographic There are few areas of public policy in giants account for over one-third of the which a lack of understanding of bask earth's new, inhabitants each year. The arithmetic has hindered effective policy- five leading national contributors to making as much as it has in population. world population growththese two, Few national political leaders seem to plus Brazil. Bangladesh. and Nigeria understand what an annual population constitute nearly half the 79 million an- growth of 3 percent. relatively innocu- nual increment. ous in the near term. will lead to over a Many relatively small Third World century. Political leaders and economic countries have an astounding number of planners often think of a 3 percent new citizens to feed, clothe. and shelter growth rate as simply three times as each wear because their growth rates are much as a 1 percent rate. Although this so high. Nigeria, for example, has 84 is true for one year, it is not true over the million people, less than one-third as longer term. as the rates compound. A many as the Soviet Union; yet each year population growing 1 percent annually there are 2.8 million more Nigerians, will not even triple in a century. but one compated with 2.2 million more Soviets. growing 3 percent annually will increase In the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. nineteenfold. (See Table 2-1.) population is four times that of Mexico's Stopping word population growth re- but the latter grows by nearly 2 million quires bringing the number of births and people a year, whereas the V.S natural deaths roughly into balance. as they al- increase is 1.6 similar situa- ready are in several countries. How far tion exists in Asia: Burma, with only one- the world has to go in this task can be third the population ofjapan, adds more seen in the data for 1983, when an es- people each year. timated 131 million births and 52 million deaths yielded the net increase of some 79 million. A clearer idea of the Table 2-1., Relationship of Population Growth Per Year and Per Century COUNTRIES WITH ZERO Population Population POPULATION GROWTH Growth Growth Per Year Per Century The first country in the modern era to bring births and deaths into equilibrium (percent) (pen ern/ was East Germany, where population 270 growth came to a halt in 1969. It was 2 724 closelyfollowed by West Germany, 3 1.922 whose population stopped growing in +(Pita Worldwatt h Insulin.: 1972. During the decade since, several 37 (22) Stott of the World-I984 Table 2.2. Principal Sources of World Population Growth, by Country, 1983 Annual Annual Country Population Growth Rate Increase (million) (percent) (million) India 330.0 2.1 15.33 China 1.023.3 1.3 13.30 Brazil 131.3 2.3 3.02, Bangladesh 96.5 3.1 2.99 Nigeria 84.2 3.3 2.78 Pakistan 95.7 2.8 2.68 Indonesia 155.6 17 2.65 Soviet Union 272.0 0.8 2.18 Mexico 75.7 2.6 1.97 United States 234.2 0.7 1.64 souoicr.. Population Reference Bureau, 1983 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1983):. China's growth rate es author's estimate based on 1982 census by Chinese Government. other countries-most recentlyItaly. at least a beginning toward the eventual Switzerland. and Norway-have joined stabilizationof world population, a the ranks of the demographic no-growth prerequisite of a sustainable society. countries. Population stabilization was not an explicit national goal in any of these 12 , countries. Declines in fertility flowed By 1983, there were 12 countries, from economic gains and social im- all in Europe, where births and provements. As incomes rose and as employment opportunities for women ex- deaths were in equilibrium. 0. panded, couples chose to have fewer children. The improved availability of family planning services and the liberali- By 1983 there were 12 copntries, all in zation of abortion laws gave couples the Europe, where binhs and deaths were in means to achieve this. Population stabili- equilibrium. (See Table 2-3.) For them, zation in these countries has been the in contrast to the rest of the world, a year result, therefore, of individual prefer- of zero economic growth does not:auto- ences, the product of converging eco- matically lead to a decline in living stan- nomic, social, and demographic forces. dards. With the exception of East Ger- Several other European countries many and Hungary, all are in Wester i could reestablish equilibrium 1ktween Europe. They range from tiny Luxem- births and deaths in a matter of years. bourg to three of the four largest coun- Among these in Western Europe are triesin Western Europe-Italy. the Finland, France, Greece. the Nether- United Kingdom. and West Germany. lands, Portugal, and Spain. In Eastern With the recent addition of Switzerland Europe, Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia to the list. Europe's German-speaking are soon likely to follow East Germany population hasstabilized. Together. and Hungary along the path of popula- these &gen countries contain some 244 tion stabilization, million people. Although this represents Encouraging though it willbewhen only 5.2 percent of the world total, it is these countries reach population stabil-

, 38 Stabilizing eMulation (23) Table 24. Countries With Zero Populition Growth, 1983* Annual Crude Crude Rate of Birth Death Increase (+ ) Popu- Country Rate Rate or Decrease ( ) lation (per1.000 (percent) population) Austria 12 12 0.0 7.6 Belgium 12 11 +0.2 9.9 Denmark 10 11 0.1 5.1 east Germany 14 14 0.0 16.9 Hungary 13 14 0.1 10.7 Italy 11 9 +0.2 56.6 Luxembourg 12 +0.1 0.4 Norway 12 10 +0.2 4.1 Sweden 11 11 0.0 8.3 Switterland I I 9 +0.2 6.5 United Kingdom 13 12 +0.1 56.0 West Germany 10 12 0.2 61.6 Total Population 243.5 1Zero population growth is here defined as within a range of plus or minus 0 2 percent change in population sae per year. SOURCE:Worldwatchinstitute estimates, based on data in United Nations, Monthly Bulltim of Patton. New York. monthly. ity, major gains in raising theshareof births and deaths will come into balance. people in the world who live in a similar as they have in so much of Europe. In situation awaits further fertility declines both countries this will be hastened by in the three largest industrial countries the aging of the population and the con- Japan. the Soviet Union, and the sequent increase in death rates. The sit- United Stateswhich now have annual uation is somewhat less clear for the So- population growth rates of 0.7.0.8, and viet Union, which has a highly fertile, 0.7 percent, respectively. The postwar rapidly, expanding Asian minority. The decline in the Soviet crude birth rate lev- moderate overall Soviet growth rate em- eled of in the early seventies, hovering braces both European republics where around 18 since then. The U.S. birth population growth has ceased and Asian rate, after, declining rather steadily from republics where it expands at typical 1957 until the late seventies. picked up Third World rates. Indeed, some of the slightly during the early eighties. Japan's Soviet republics in Asia have higher birth rate, however, has been falling birth rates than ,some demographically steadily for over a decade and, at 13. is progressive states in India.* Overall, now the lowest of these three.' nevertheless, barring any unexpected With the number of young people en- rises in fertility, it is only matter of time tering their reproductive years now fall- until natural population growth comes ing steadily in both the United States to a halt in these three countries, since and Japan, it is possible to envisage a each has a net reproductive rate well time in the not-too-distant future when below the replacement rate of 2.1-. (24) Stale of the World-1984 RAPID NATIONAL FERTILITY not surprising, but the contrasts between them and the two Caribbean is. DECLINES land cultures are striking. The demographic transition. the shift The four developing countries in Asia, on the other hand, that were among the from high mortality and high fertility to first to lower their birth ratesHong low rates of both, has historically been a Kong (17), Singapore (It), Taiwan (23). slow process. In Western Europe death and South Korea (25)are rather ho- rates and birth rates fell gradually over a few centuries. In countries now in the mogenous in that all are predominantly Sinitic (Chinese-based oj -related) cul- early stages of modernization, the start tures.6 In addition to their common or. of the transition has been much faster. similar ethnic backgrounds, all four are The precipitous decline in mortality of economically vigorous societies moving roughly a generation ago was often com: rapidly along the path to modernization. pressed into a decade or so and usually And they all have had well-designed occurred before the decline in fertility family planning programs, with contra-, had begun. This produced record popu- ceptive services widely available, for at lation increases against a backdrop ofin. least a decade and a half. sufficient,inequitably distributedre- sources, The result was historically unprecedented growth in human numbers, commonly exceeding 3 percent per In 1979 China became the first year. These rates underline the urgency country to launch a one-child fam- of completing the last phase of the ily program. demographic transitionthe decline in fertilityas rapidly as possible. But reducing births is a much more complex Perhaps the most impressive family undertaking than reducing deaths. Mor- planning achievement in the developing tality rates can be brought down quickly world has occurred in China. Family through public health measures and planning was periodically caught up in childhood vaccination programs, where- the ideological crosscurrents of the Chi- as the reduction in birthsrequires nese communist party from 1949 until Changes in values that must then trans- the early seventies, but since that time a late into changes in reproductive behav- sustained national effort has been under ior. way to reduce births. By the mid-seven. As of the mid-eighties hope on this ties the Chinese leadership was urging front springs not so much from the all couples to stop at two children, and in broad global trends as from the sharp 1979 China became the first country to reduction in fertility in countries that launch a one-child family program. represent a wide cross section of cul- By 1980 China had lowered its crude tures, religions, and political systems. birth rate to 20, an achievement many This diversity is evident in the four coun- thought impossible in such a large court- tries in the Western Hemisphere that try still at an early stage of economic de- have the lowest crude birth ratesCuba velopment. Although the 1982 census (14), Canada (15), the United States showed a slightly higher birth rate of 21, (16), and Barbados (17).5 It would be this does not diminish the success em- hard to find two national cultures more bodied in China's remarkable reduction similar than the United States and Can- in fertility from 34 to 20 in only a decade. ada, so their similar fertility levels are This precipitous decline closely parallels

40 Stabilizing Population (25) that in Japan froni 1948 to 1958. when Table 2-4. Thailand: Share of Married the birth rate fell 47 percent. from 34 to Women Practicing Contracer 18' 197041 China's family planning program is distinctive in several ways. To begin Year Percent with, the national leadershy has been -1970 14 deeply involved in designing and sup- 1975 37 porting the program. More than most 1979 50 countries, China has fostered public dis- 1981 58 cussion of the population problem and SOURCE:International Family Planning Perspectives. particularly the effect that continuing September 1980 and June 19844. growth has on future living standar/is. As population policy was integrated into in 1970. Data on annual birth rates are overall economic planning, it led in the not available in Thailand. but various late seventies to the estaGli3hment of fertility surveys taken from 1970pnward birth quotas. The oyerall plan aimed to have measured contraceptive usage. The ensure that targets for raising living proportion of married Thai'-women of standards were met; couples who had no reproductive age who were using con- children were given priority in the quota traceptives -went from 14 percent in allocation. Once births were allocated to 1970 to nearly 60 percent in 1981, a people at the productiNmeam level, level approaching that in industrial soci- peer pressure played a.mportant role eties.. (See Table 2-4.) in assuring compliance. To even con- In 1983, Thailand's birth rate was 26 sider such an ambitious birth control only one point higher than that of progrhm requires, of course, the ready South Korea, which launched its family availability of family planning services. planning program many year's earlier. including abortion. Indeed, it was roughly the same as the From birth planning it was a relatively U.S. rate immediately after World War small step to the provision of economic II. Thailand's achievement isall the incentives to couples who would agree more laudable because its reproductive to have only one child. The one-child revolution has preceded widespread family campaign was not introduced be- economic $levelopment. Central to its cause China's leaders were enamored success is a public education- program with the concept per se, but because the that emphasizes both the economic and buildup in population pressure lift few social advantages of small families and alternatives. Gaining social, acceptance the ready availability of contraceptive of this concept is not easy in a society* services.Its yip:row family planning 'where large families are traditional and program is credited with perhaps 80 per- where, there is still a strong preference cent of the national fertility decline since for sons, particularly in the countryside. 1970. Behind this imaginative program This unprecedented policyinitiative is Mechai Viravaidya, the innovative and puts China one step ahead of other charismatic head of the family planning .Third World countries in trying to halt group.. population growth. Analysts of the That fertility decline On a smaller scale. neighboring Thai- associate the rapid change in reproduc. land's reduction of fertility has also been tive attitudes and behavior with the high impressive.Its 'estimated crude birth degree of social and economic Iride pen- rate of 26 is not yet as low as China's but dence of women. The influence of Bud- it apparently started from a higher level dhism, which does not restrict con-

4 (26) State of the World-1984 traception and is not particularly prona- of therestrictive abortion law was talist, may also contribute to the ready relaxed and, abetted by widespread so- acceptance of family planning. And Bud- cial gains for women and broad-based dhism emphasizes individual responsi- improvements in health care services, bility, which may have created a social the birth rate began a precipitous de- environment particularly receptive to a cline that continued for the next 16 progressive family planning program. years. By 1980 it had fallen to 14. Al- . One of the most rapid fertility declines though the birth rate had been more on record has occurredin Cuba since the than halved, the population growth rate mid-sixties. The country's 1983 crude had seen cut by some two-thirds, to less birth rate of 14 per 1,000, lower than than 1 percent per year.10 that of the United States, is all the more After China, the most populous Third remarkable because it was not the result World country to reduce itsfertility of a concerted national program to sharply is Indonesia, Until the late sixties lowerfertilityand curb population Indonesia was a pronatalist country. Its growth. This recent birth rate decline only population program was one of should be seen, however, in historical transmigration from densely populated. perspective, since Cuba, along with Uru- Java to the sparsely populated outer is- guay and Argentina, experienced a grad- lands. After years of struggling at great ual decline m birth rates in the early cost to move Javanese to these territo- decades of the twentieth century. At the ries, and discovering that the resettle- time of the Castro takeover M 1959 the ment flow was a mere trickle compared birth rate was 28, already well below with the torrent of births, the Indonesian those of most of Lain America. Government shifted its attention to fam- One of the early actions of the new ily planning. Indonesia's national family planning government was to begin enforcing the rather restrictive abot don law that was program was launched in 1969. By 1976, when the World Fertility Survey con- already on the books. This pushed birth ducted a study there, fertility had fallen rates up sharply. to over 35 in 1963. (See substantially in some regionsas much Figure 2-0 In 1964, the interpretation ay. 12 pe:ri-Prtt in West Java to 34 percent Birth in Bali. Indonesia's family planning pro- Rate g; am has been distinguished by strong 40 government support and a highly ac- (Interpretation claimed local approach that goes far be- "of law relaxed) yond the more traditional clinic system. 30-. The direct involvement of the local village leaders as motivators, field workers, (restrictive and even contraceptive distributors has abortion law been central to the program's success,' 20- enforced) By 1983 Indonesia's birth rate had fallen to 32 and its population growth rate was reportedly 1.7 percent per year, well 10- below the nearly 3 percent that existed Sources: Pop. Ref.Bureau; before the program began. 11 Cuban Ministry of Public Health Another Latin American country t i Mexicois the site of one of the most 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 recent fertility reductions in a major Figure 2-1. Cube's Crude Birth Bete, 195042 Third World country. Prior to 1972 the

42 Stabilizing Population (27) official Mexican policy waslikeIn- will: be noted in Chapter 3, this growth donesia'sthe more people the better. was closely tied to an ahundance of President Echeverria's announcement in cheap oil. With the 1973 oil price hike, 1972 that Mexico would launch a family economic growth began to slow. With planning program came as a surprise. At the 1979 increase it slowed further. The that time Mexico's crude birat rate was following four years the world economy 44 and its overall population growth rate expanded less than 2 percent per year. was 3.5 percent annuallyone of the Although these four years are not in highest in the world. Within a decade the themselves enough to constitute a trend, birth rate dropped to 32. Combined with the less favorable resource conditions a death rate of 7, this still resulted in a that contributed to the slower growth population growth rate of 2.5 percent, during this time may also lead to slow v7hich was far too rapid. And there are growth over the long term. remote rural areas where family plan- The Wall .Street Journal, in a survey of ningservices are not yetavailable. European economic analysts at the end Nonetheless the progress of a decade in- of 1982. reported that many expect the dicates that Mexico has at least set the prolonged recession of the early eighties stage for a continuing decline in fertility. to become permanent. In contrast to The challenge now will be limiting birthsii earlier recessions, when recovery trans- over the rest of this Century among the lated into a 4-6 percent growth rate, the enormous number of young people en- Journal noted that these analysts saw tering their reproductive years as a re- European recovery from the current result of the extraoidinarily high birth late cession in terms of a 1-2 percent rate," before the mid-seventies." For parts of the Third World, pros- The countries that have achieved pects are even grimmer. A 1983 assess- rapid national fertility declines repre- ment of Africa's future by the Economic sent a wide variety of cultures. The com- Commission for Africa reported that mon denominators are a committed "the historical trend scenario is almost a leadership and locally designed pro- nightmare." It continued: The potential, population explosion would have grams. Experience to date shows a broad tremendous repercussions on the re- popular interest in planning families and gion's physical resources such as land. a willingness, in some cases an eager- ... At thenational level, the socio-eco- ness, to take advantage of services when nomic conditions would be character- they become available. Each country ized by a degradation of the very essence desiring to reducefertility must of of human dignity. The rural population course design its own program, one that ...will face an almost disastrous situa- is responsive to its values, traditions, and tion of land scarcity whereby whole fami- needs. lies would have to subsist on a mere hectare of land." A World Bank analysis.of Africa's economic outlook described the Commission's assessment as "graphic but realistic."'4 POPULATION VERSUS Given the emerging constraints on ECONOMIC GROWTH growth, particularly in basic sectors such as food and energy. the world is going to Overall, global economic growth during have great difficulty resuming the rapid the third quaner of this century was economic growth of the 1950-73 period. more than double that or population. As Expanding global economic output even

43 I

(28) Stair of the World- -1984 by an average of 2 percent per year may greatest long-term potential for massive tax the skills of economic policymakers. human suffering. Countries with rapid population growth Unfortunately, economic growth has may thus face declines in living stan- already fallen behind population growth dards-unless they quickly reduce their in many countries. The World Bank re- birth rates. ports that per capita GNP declined in 18 Slower economic growth will have an countries from 1970 to 1979. (See Table impact everywhere, but the effect will 2-5.) In a few cases this was caused by vary widely according to national popu- disruption of economicactivityas- lation growth rates. For West Germany sociated with political conflicts and in- or Belgium, which have attained zero stability, but in the great majority popu- population growth, a 2 percent rate of lation growth simply outstripped that of annual economic growth will still raise economic out put. incomes 2 percent each year. For coun- Central to the decline in per capita in- tries such as Kenya and Ecuador, whose come during the seventies in many of the numhers expand at more than 3 percent countries in Africa, a largely rural conti- per year, a 2 percent economic growth nent, was the decade-long decline in per rate will produce steady declines in in- capita food production. The growth in comes and living standards. If an economic growth rate of 2 per- Table 2-5. Countries Experiencing a cent per year becomes the new norm, Decline in Per Capita Income, 1970 -79 then nearly haif the world's people- those living in countries with annual Annual population growth rates of 2 percent or Rate of more-face possible income qtagaation Country Population Decline or decline. Countries where the threat of (million) (percent) falling income isgreatest are those Angola 6.9 -9.6 whose numbers grow at 3 percent or Bhutan 1.3 -0.1 more per year. These 34 countries, al- Chad 4.4 - 2.4 most all in Africa, the Middle East, and Congo 1.5 -0.2 Central America, have a combined pop- Ghana 11.3 -3.0 ulation of 394 million.* Jamaica 2.2 -3.7 Within this group, countries with exportable surpluses ofoil may be tempted 1.ibya 2.9 - 1.6 to neglect population policy, with the re- Madagascar 8.5 - 2.5 sult that their populations will continue Mauritania 1.6 -0.7 to multiply rapidly. sustained by the im- Mozambique 10.2 -5.3 ported resources that petroleum buys. \ icaragua 2.6 - 1.6 Over the long term, however, as oil re- Niger, 5.2 -1.2 serves dwindle and the exportable surplus disappears, they may find them- Sierra 1.eone 3.4 -1.2 Uganda 12.8 -3.5 selves with populations that far exceed Upper Volta 5.6 -1.2 the carrying capacity of local resources. Countries such as Iran awl Nigeria, Zaire 27.5 - 2.6 where oil production and exports have Zambia 5.6 --1.9 Zimbabwe 7.1 -1.7 already peaked, illustrate well the risks that oil-producing countries with rapidly Total 120.6 expanding populations face over the coURcE: World Rank. 1981 World Barth Alias long term. Situations like these have the (Washington. DZ.: 1982).

44 Ma:nil:mg Population (29)

Africa's food supply. ((impale% favorably lion for formulating intelligent popula- with that for the world as a whole, but its tion policies. U.N. projections show increase in human numbers is far more world populanon continuing to grow rapid. Plagued by the fastest population until it reaches I I billion before leveling growth of any cominent in histot*, as off a century or so hence,16 These popu- well as by widespread soil erosion and lation figures are the product of two sets desertification, Africa's food production of assumptionsone explicit and one per person has fallenI I percent since implicit. The explicit assumptions are 1970.16 demographic. They include country-by- Given the prevailing, economic condi- country assumptions about future fertil- tions of the early eighties. the ranks of ity levels. sex ratios, life expectancies, the18 countries with declining per and numerous other demographic varia- capita GNP are likely to swell dramati- bles, If these explicit assumptions hold, cally. In a report published in late 1981 the projected increases in world popula- the World Bank projected a decline in tion will materialize. the average income of 187 million people in 24 low-income countries in sub- Saharan Africa. This is the first time the Africa's food production per per- World Bank has projected a decline in son has fallen 11 percent since living standards for a major region of the 1970. world) 7 As the growth in the production of material goods and services slows, the But population growth does not occur distributionissuemust beviewed in a vacuum. Current projections of against a new backdrop, one unfamiliar world population are based on the im- to this generation. With the changing plicit assumption that the energy, food. growth prospect. pressure to reformu- and other natural resources required to late economic and social policies with support human life are going to be as bask human needs in mind will no doubt readily available M the future as they increase. This task will be far more diffi- .have been in the past. They assume that cult than it was in the era of rapid eco- the production of the major biological nomic growth. with its underlying belief support systemsfisheries, forests. that a rising tide raises all ships. As econ- grasslands, and croplandsthat satisfy omist Herman Daly has perceptively ob- basic human needs for food, shelter, and served, turning our focus to meeting clothing will continue to expand along bask human needs will "make fewer de- with population. It is perhaps unfortu- mands on our environmental resources. nate that population projections are but much greater demands on our inoral done by demographers on their own. resources."18 Projections by an interdisciplinary team of analystsincluding,forexample, agronomists, economists, and ecologists would be more realistic since population growth cannot be divorced from POPULATION /RESOURCE the carrying capacity of local biological PROJECTIONS systems. Continuing increases in human population on the one hand and Existing projections of population and the progressive deterioration of life- resources do not provide a solid fimnda- support systerni,on the other are not

45 A

(I0) State of Me World-1984 compatible over the long term. halted in 1976. World production of oil, The unreality of current population the leading energy resource, peaked in projections can be seen in the numbers 1979. The growth in world grain pto- put fonit for individual countries. Ac- duction, which had been steadily outdis- cording to the World Bank, which uses tancing population since mid - century, slightly lower projections than the U.N. has barely kept pace with population' medium-level ones. the growth ahead growth since 1973. In North America for some countries can only be described food production has continued to out- as phenomenal. India is projected to add strip population growth. But in Africa. as more than another billion people to its mentioned earlier. the reverse is true. 1983 population of 730 million before Since 1970 per capita food production stabilizing at 1.84 billion, while neigh- there has been falling by some 1 percent boring Bangladesh and Pakistan could per year.2' increase from 96 million each at present Faced with this emerging picture of a to 430 million and 411 million respec- new population/resource balance, Presi- tively.If these three countries grow dent Carter was frustrated by the inabil- as projected. the Indian subcontinent ity of U.S. Government agencies to pro- would be lime to 2.7 billion people. vide coherent sets of projections in more than the entire world population in important areas such as energy, water, 1959. The 84 million Nigerians of today and food. This lack of global foresight are projected to increase to 623 million, capability led him to launch the Global more people than now live in all of 2000 study in 1977. Undertaken by the Africa. Mexico would grow from 76 inil- U.S., Council on Environmental Quality lion to 215 million people. roughly the and the Department of State in cooper- size of the current U.S. population. And ation with 17 specialized government thepopulationsof severalCentral departments and agencies, the study American countriesEl Salvador. Gua- examined, among other things,the temala, and Nicaraguawould triple be- consequences of the projected increases fore stabilizing.te Clearly, national and in world population. global resources would be stretched to The Global 2000 study team disccv- the breaking point well before increases ered numerous inconsistencies among of this size materialize. government projections and policies. In Many of the economic stresses afflict- assembling sector forecasts from the ing the world economy during the mid- various agencies, overlapping resource eighties have their origins in chang- claims came to light. The Department of ing population/resource trends. When Agriculture, for example, was incor- world population reached the three bil- porating in its projections water that lion mark in 1960, the per capita produc- the Department of Energy was expecting tion of almost every major commodity to use to launch synfuels projects. The was still increasing. But when world pop- risk of such a lack of coherency in plan- ulation moved., toward four billion, de- ning is that it can lead to resource scar- mands began to approach the sustain- cities, as in the case of water, or to excess able yield of many biological support capacity, as in the case of electrical gen- systems: The world harvest of forest eration. In either , case resources are products began to fall behind popula- wasted. tion growth; 20 years of rapid growth M The Global 2000 Report, the end prod- the world fish catch came to an end; and uct of this Erg effort to project global per capita growth in world beef output economic, environment, and resource

46 Stabele:Ang Populatton 011 trends. observed in an oh-quoted con- ambitious China 2000 study. Japan has clusion that "barring revolutionary ad- organized a Year 2000 Committee to vances in technology. life for most peo- focus on the implications he chang ple on earth will be more precarious in ing global resource outl for the Japa- 2000 than it is nowunless the nations nese economy." ,nited States, un- of the world act decisis eh, to alter cur- fortunately. has Nileto follow through rent trends." Five years have passed on Global 2000. The result has been an tote the study went in press. Unfbrtu- international vacuum as the dominant nately, life is more difficult now for many world economy and traditional world of the world's people than it was then." leader on such matters sit on the side- The only other comprehensive at- lines. failing to provide leadership on tempt to project world trends to the end this critical complex of issues. of the century was undertaken in the One of the first countries to examine mid-seventies by the United Nations. Di- systematically the long-term popula- rected by economist Wassily Leontief. it tion/resource balance was China. As foresaw a rosy economic future for the part of the post-Mao reassessment, Chi- world. The weakness of this undertaking nese leaders projected future population was that it was done almost entirely by size based on the assumption that cou- economists and lacked a solid interdisci- ples would'have only two children. Even plinary foundation. The result was pie- under this scenario, given the country's in-the-sky projections and misleading youthful age structure China would add conclusions about where the world was another 300 or 400 million people be- headed. For example. the U.N. study fore population growth ceased. After postulated for the remainder of this cen- relating these projections to the availa- tury an average agricultural growth rate bility of land, water, energy, and other in the developing world of 5.3 percent, basic resources and to the capacity of the a rate with little foundation in either the economy to provide jobs, the leadership historical experience ofdeveloped coun- concluded that they had no choice but to tries or in current Third World realities. press for a one-child family lest they The authors noted that soil erosion jeopardize their hard-earned gains in liv. would affect future food production, but ing standards." because data was sketchy they chose sim- Elizabeth Croll, China scholar at Ox- ply to ignore it. If agronomists had been ford University, observes that Beijing involved in the project they could at least had concluded that "unless the popula- have estimated erosion's impart on fu- tion to be fed, housed and clothed is re- ture productivity, thus making the produced. the goals of any development jections more realistic apd useful." strategy in China are bound to fail. "2' Concerned with the declines in per The principal difference between China capita production of the basic resources and other densely populated developing that underpin the global economy, sev- countries such as Bangladesh, India, eral individual countries decided to ex- Egypt, Nigeria. and Mexico may be that amine the implications of the Global the Chinese have had the courage and 2000 study for their own national poll- the foresight to make these projections s des. Countries as varied as Japan. Mex- and to translate their findings into public ico. and West Germany have expressed policy. If others took a serious look at interest in the "Global 2000" approach. futurepopulation/resourcebalances, China, well aware of indigenous re- they too might well decide that they source constraints, is undertaking an should press for a one-child family.

47 (32) State of the World-1984

NEW POPULATION care systems and well-designed family planning programs that encourage small INITIATIVES families can bring fertility down even As world population moves toward five without the widespread economic gains billion, the per capita production of that'characterizedthedemographic transition in the industrial societies." many basic commodities is falling. The Making family planning services uni- effort to raise incomes and living man- versally available is the very first step ciards is faltering in many countries, par- that all countries should take. Beyond ticularly where population is growing helping to curb population by prevent- most 'rapidly. The fall in global eco- ing unwanted births,it makes people nomic growth from over 4 petcent annu- aware that they can control their fertility, ally to 2 percent is dividing the world in effect creating its own demand. And into two groups: those where economic because family planning leads to better growth exceeds population growth, and spacing of births, it lowers infant mortal- those where it does not. For one group, ity, which in turn fosters lower fertility, livingstaadards are rising. For the other Although each country represented at they are falling.Onegroup can hope the U.N. Conference on World Popula- that the futurewillbe better than the tion in Bucharest in 1974 agreed that present. In the other. hope is turning to access to family planning services was a despair. basic human right, not all governments The fall in per capita incomes is occur- have followed through. As a result, an ring, almost without exception. in coun- estimated one-third of all couples still go tries that have given little attention to to bed unprotected from unplanned the human side of the populatibn/ pregnancy.ts resources equation. The attention of po- Essential though family planning ser- liticalleaders and the allocation of,vices are, they are not in themselves budgetary resources have both focused sufficient. Data from the World Fertility almost entirely on the supply side, on Survey show the desired family size in expanding output. One consequence of many countries is still four or five chil- this imbalance is that more and more of dren. Although this is lower than it was the growth in output is required to sat- just a few years ago, in some countries isfy the increase in population, with little having this many children would lead to remaining for improvements in per vast populatiortgains that would steadily capita consumption. reduce livinstandards '9 Reducing fer- Where population growth is rapid, tility to the 1el circumstances call for changing economic circumstances call requires public ecation programs that for new population policies. Many devel- inform people about the future relation- oping Countries are stalled in the middle ship between population and resources of the demographic transition discussed and about the economic consequences earlier.If economic growth remains of continuing on the current demo- slow, barely keeping pace with popula- graphic path. More projectionslike tion growth or even (kiting behind it, those done in Beijing are needed. In tra- then high-fertility developing countries ditional countries such as China,' child- cannot count on economic improve- bearing decisions are still influenced by ments to reduce births as they did in the a parental desire to be looked after in old industrial countries. Fortunately, recent age. By emphasizing future population/ experience has shown that countries resource relationships,.vernment offi- with bread-based but inexpensive health cials can shift parents' considerations of 48 Stabilizing Population ( 33 ) childbearing decisims from their own Other countries have designed reward well-being to that of their children. systems to encourage sterilization or the For most Third World coumries, how- use of contraceptives. India. for exam- ever, the provision of family planning ple, was the first government to provide services and public education programs small, one-time payments to men and based on projections will not slow popu- women who were sterilized. In some lation growth quickly enough to avoid a countries such payments are regarded decline M living standards. Govern- more as compensation for lost wages and ments in these countries will need to travel costs than as incentives per se. The reorient economic and social policies to Indian payments in 1983 ranged from lowerfertilityfurther.Traditionally. 311-13, for example, roughly two weeks' government policies that affected popu- wages for rural laborers. In Bangladesh, lation growth encouraged large families. those sterilized receive new clothing --a In most countries, for example, income sari for women and a fungi for men tax deductions and -naternity leaves are plus travel-cost reimbursements avaibble without restriction. Now some Experience shows that such payments conmries are beginn,ng to alter these do make sterilization more popular. In a long-standing policies. For example. 1983 Worldwatch Paper. Judith Jacob- South Korea and Pakistan limit income sen noted thatin Sri Lanka, the number tax deductions to two children. Tan - of sterilization performed in govern- iania, Sri Lanka. and Nepal have gone ment family planning programs in- even further and entirely eliminated tax creased when payments were first intro- deductions for dependent children.'" duced in January 1980. Nine months Several governments restrict mater- later. when payments were increased nity benefits. In the Philippines, they are fivefold to match those offered on pri- limited to the first four births; in Ghana, vate estates, sterilization clinics were Hong Kong, and Malaysia. to three; and swamped. The number of sterilization in South Korea. even more stringent. to performed at one clinic increased from 6 only two. Tanzania, adapting this gen- to 35 a day after the introduction of the eral approach to African family planning payment and rose to 150 a day after the programs' emphasis on child spacing, increase."" provides paid maternity leave to em- Some countries have begun to experi- ployed women only once every three ment with community incentives. A com- years.'1 munity that achieves certain family plan- Sonic governments use accessto ning goals. either measured in terms of education and to public housing or contraceptive usage or in reduction in to low - interest loans for the purchase births, becomes eligiblefor a new of housing as a carrot to encourage school. a village well, a community irri- small families. In China. the certificate gation pump, or even a television set. awarded to couples who pledge to have This approach. being tried in Thailand only one child entitles them to preferred and Indonesia. has the advantage of access to schooling for that child. South mobilizing peer pressure to limit family Korean government employees who size." stop at two can deduct their educational There is an urgent need for data to be expenditures from income tax. In Sin- gathered regularly in this vital arca, to gapore, having no more than two chil- permit continuing evaluations of prog- dren gives couples preferred access to ress and reports to the public. The col- housing. much of which is governmem- lection and monthly publication of birth constructed.ss rates would help measure progress on ea (3;) State of theWorld-1984 this critical front, much as is now the Governments will be forced to settle case with employment, inflation, or the differentet, between private interests, balance of payments. It would also con- sometimes better served by larger fami- tribute to public awareness of the need lies, and the public or social interest, to reduce family size and halt population whichisinvariably better served by growth. smaller families. Reconciling these dif- In many countries, reducing the birth ferences can be extraordinarily complex rate rapidly enough to avoid a decline in and politically costly. Failure, however, living standards will require a Herculean could be catastrophic. The issue is hoiy effort and the constant attention of na- not whetherpopulation growth will tional political leaders. Administratively, eventually be slowed. Will it be hu- successful implementation of population manely, through foresight and leader- progrants may require that responsibil- ship. or will living standards deteriorate ity for them be escalated from a division until death rates begin to rise? The latter in the health ministry, where it com- would certainly reestablish a population monly resides. to a cahinet-level com- equilibrium of sorts, but it would be mittee that regularly reviews the situa- through, high birth and deativ'rates, tion. Unorthodox though this may be. it rather than the low birth and death rates is the level of attention befitting the characteristic' of countriesthat have gravity of the issue. completed The demographic transition. Among the Third World countries In an age of slower economic growth, that hale sticressfulls reduced fertility. impromnents in living standards may no two approaches are identical. But all depend more on the skills of family have invoked national-leaders' commit- planners than on those of economic ment to reduce fertility. the widespread planners. As the outlines of the new eco- availability of family planning services, nomic era become more visible, popula- and a public education program that tion policy seems assured a high place litiks population growth to the long-term on natic 1al political agendas. Too many social interest as well as to benefits for governments have delayed facing the individual families. Several of the more issue for too long. When they belatedly successful countries have often used do so, they may discover, as China has, some combination of economic incen- that circumstances force them to press tives or disincentives to encourage small for a one-child family. families. ... 3

Reducing DependenceonOil Lester R. Brown

If the 7 percent annual growth in global Despite late twentieth century ad- oil consumption that prevailed from vances in mathematics and widespread 1950 to 1973 had continued, the world access to computers, political leaders would have increased oil use from 20.4 and other key economic decision-makers billion barrels in 1973 to just over 40 have a dangerously deficient under billion barrels in 1983. At such a con- standing of exponential growth. If the sumption level unprecedented adjust- oil consumption trend of the century's ments would be required, adjustments third quarter had continued through the that would place great pressure on the fourth, by the year 2000 oil consumption international economic' system. But this would have reached 127 billion barrels. did not happen, because a group of Proven reserves would have been used preindustrial,oil-exportingcountries up by 1990 and before 2005 all ulti- that controlled the lion's share of world mately recoverable reserves would hbve oil .exports decided in late 1973 that, oil been exhausted' was vastly underpriced. To remedy this, By the mid-seventies oil's low cost, they quadrupled its price, sending eco- mobility, and versatility had made it the nomic' shocic waves through the world fuel of choice everywhere. Countries economy and making OPEC a house- that did not produce oil imported it. Al- hold word. though it had become the principal en- The 1973oilpriceadjustment ergy source powering the world econ- checkedtherunawayconsumption omy, and although thegrowing trend, but it was the 1979 increase that worldwide dependence on it was pat- reversed it. As a result of the two price ently unsustainable, few seemed to no- jolts, world oil consumption in 1983 to- tice or take heed. In the United States, taled only 20 billion barrels, not the 40 automobiles were growing larger each billion barrels it might have been.* year and the number of miles they could 51

.), I It

2 (36) State of the World-1984 travel per gallon was dropping ever Table 3.1. World Oil Consumption, lower. Projections of the world auto Total and Per Capita, 1950-83 market through the year 2000 that were Year Per Capita done before 1979 showed Ole kndustry Total easily doubling iti size, erroneously as- (billion barrels) (barrels) sutning that the growth in oil coilsump- 1950 3.9 1.56 tion could continueindefinitely-3\ In retrospect. the world may be heiv. 1955 5.5 2.01 ily indebted to OPEC (the Organization 1960 7.8 2.58 of Petroleum Exporting Countries) for having raised the price of oil. It is easy 1965 11.4 3.40 to criticize the group in the short run. 1970 16.7 4.54 especially the failure of cash-surplus 1971 17.7 4.72 countries to assist more vigorously the 1972 18.7 4.91 poorest oil-importing countries. And it 1973 20.4 5.26 Would be naive to overlook the self- 1974 19:8 5.00 e interest involved in OPEC's move to obtain a better price for the oil of its mem- 1975 19.3 4.80 bers and stretch out remaining reserves. 1976 21.2 5.16 But its oil pricing policy is nonetheless 1977 22.2 5.32 socially constrictive on the whole. With 1978 23.0 5.39 reserves shrinking, a socially responsible 1979 23.8 5.48 policy wouldraiseprices justfast 1980 23.1 5.22 enough to encourage the conservation 1981 22.1 4.91 and deyelownent of alternative energy 1982 21.5 4.70 sources needed to minimize disruption 1983 20.5 .0.40 in the transition to the post-petroleum sotacts. American Petroleum Institute. Basic Pe- era. troleum Data BooA (Washington. D.C.: I983); "Mid- As of 1984. itis hard to argue that the year Reciev and Forecast: 011 and Caufournal, July price of oil began rising soon enough to 25. 1985; Worldwatch Institute estimates. make this smooth transition possible. oil produced in 1970 will never again be Prices of petroleum products like gaso- matched. If so, historians looking back line are still controlled or subsidizedin from the twenty-firsecentury will almost too many countries, slowing the adjust- certainly. see that year as a hinge point in . z ments that energy consumers can make. economic history, a year that signaled Efforts by governments o partly offset the price rise notwithr ling, OPEC's not only the eventual fading of the age of role in raising oil prices will almost cer- oil. but the beginning of the post- tainly be vindicated over time. petroleulin age as well, Given be growth in world population since nnickentury, the rise in per capita consumptionwas somewhat less than at of total consumption. Between 1950 SUCCESS STORIES/ and 1970 the average individual's use of oil climbi.c1 from 1.56 barrels each year Since 1979 world oil consumption has to 5.48 birreli, a gain'of nearly fourfold. fallen 3.3 billion barrels, a 14 percent Since 197,9, however with world oil con- drop. (See Table 3-1.) There is a distinct sumption' declining while the number of possibility that the 22.9 billion bands of people continued to increase. the per

52 I, Reducing Dependence on Oil (37) Capita decline has been precipitous. Fall- try that, try as.it might, has been unable ing nearly 20 percent in four years; t has to reduce oil use. affected every facet of human existence from diets to transportation. The substantial adjustments of the last few years In retrospect, the world may be will continue for decades to come; heavily indebted to OPEC for hav- The 14 percent drop in world oil consumption since 1979 is impressive, but ing raised the price of oil. some countries have contributed far more to the decline than others. (See Table 3-2.) In fact, a few are still expand- Somcwhat surprisingly, the country ing their use of oil. Among the larger with the best record in reducing oil con- economies, the leading Western indus- sumption is the United Kingdom, the trial countries und Japan have been the only major Western industrial country most successful in reducing their oil de- that exports oil. U.K. oil use peaked in pendence. The centrally planned econo- 1973 at 840 million barrels and turned mies have not done as well, The Soviet downward, falling to 606 million barrels Union is the only major industrial coun- in 1982, 28 percent below its high. The

Table 3 -2. Petroleum Consumption in Major Countries, 1960-82' United West UnitedKing- Ger- Soviet Year States dom Fran many Japan Union China India Brazil Mexico "s(million barrels) 1960 3.577 343 204 230 241 869 62 60 99 110

1965 ' 4,201 544 398 MS 6351.318 84 91 120 124

1970 5.366 763 690 88t1,4051.934 226 134 186 182 1971 5,522 .763 748 9531.5262,427 288 IM 204 190 1972 5.975 818 814 1,0071,5912,226 232 154 237 204 1973 6,318 840 883 1,0661,8512,398 409 166 281 223 1974 6,077 781 825 9531.8102359 504 168 303 245

1975 5.957 683 781 9161,6422,727 577 182 318 270 1976 6,373 679 832 9891.7412.792 613 188 354 292 1977 6.727 686 814 1,0371,9092.986 668 201 369 307 1978 6,880 675 792 1,1131.8763,092 661 225 383 336 1979 6.756 704 872 1,1212,0003.132 675 241 431 329

1980 6.277 632 825 9891.8103,252 668 235 423 445 1981 5.826 585 723 8911.680' 638 389 485 1982 5.567 606 712 8841.565 529

Fall From 49

Peak (%) -19-28 -19 -21-22 -5-2-10 ....we Nir sotracts. U.S. Department of Energy. Energy hanrmation Adminiitration. Internal:end Parolettni Ansitust (Washington, DC.. various years) and 1981 Internal:mud Energy Mutual (Washington. DC.: 1982): 1981-82 data arc preliminary estimates by WOridstatch Institute.!Peak year in bold.

I 081 . State of the World -1984 other major Western industrial coun- THE CONSERVATION tries have achieved remarkably similar reductions, ranging from 19' percent in CONTRIBUTION the United Silks and France to 22 per- Oil can be conserved in two waysby centin Japan. Except for France, where consumption turned downward right using it 'more efficiently or by not doing after 1973, the peak year was 1978 or certain things that consume oil. Insula- tiOnpermits a building to be heated (and 1979. cooled) more efficiently. Among thedevelopingcountries Keeping a trends vary. China, an oil exporter, kitchen list of needed groceries, on the began reducing oil consumption in other hand, and thus reducing the fre- 1980; India, an importer, has increased quency of incidental auto trips to the its consumption steadily for the past two grocery conserves oil by not doing decades. Even since the 1973 price in- something that uses it. In this case, orga- crease India's use of petroleum has risen nized information is substituted for gas- over 40 percent. Although per capita oil oline. use in India is only a small fraction of In considering how to conserve oil, that in industrial societies? the wisdom of the world's transportation system, which fostering this growing dependence on depends heavily on petroleum, deserves oil, a dwindling resource, is question- careful attention. And within the trans- able.4 port sector, itis the automobile that- The consumption trends of the two dominates. (The future of the automo- major Latin American countries also bile is discussed in greater detail in contrast. Brazil, which is an oil importer, Chapter 9.) Here it is efficiency that is has reduced its use sharply since 1979. the key, since, except for the Brazilian Indeed, from 1979 to 1981 consumption alcohol fuel program and the South Afri- fell 10 percent. Oil-exporting Mexico, can coal liquefaction program, there is meanwhile, consumes more and more little immediate practical scope for sub- petroleum. In 1982 it burned an almost stituting other fuels for gasoline. unbelievable 59 percent more oil than in ReCognizing this, nearly all industrial 1979.5 Even though Mexico exports societies have established programs and more oil than it consumes, there are goals to raise the fuel efficiency of au- doubts about the wisdom of continuing tomobiles. In 1978, the last year before to raise its dependence on oil given the the second price hike, automobiles com- certain knowledge that its reserves will ing off U.S. and Canadian assembly lines be largely depleted within this genera- required half again as much fuel per mile tion. as those being manufactured in France, The 14 percent fall in world oil con- Japan, Sweden, and West Germany. "--'surription between 1979 and 1983 was Standards set after that by the industrial achieved partly by substituting energy countries with the largest auto fleets from other sources for oil and partly by were designed to boost efficiency by sing all forms of energy more effi- one-tenth to one-third. With the two cie The refiventribution of sub- countries that were manufacturing the Atiition an on varies widely least fuel-efficient cars in 1978, namely by country and by st In some cases the United States and Canada, setting dramatic falls have beeachieved en- the highest goals, there was a conver- tirely as a result of conservation. In oth- gence in fuel efficiency standards among ers they are the result of extensive sub- countries. (See Table 3-3.) Although the stitution. difference's among countries will largely

54 .11 Redwing Dependence on Oil -'!39) Table 3-3. Fite' Efficiency in Nett Automobiles In Seleett. Industrial Countries, 1978 and Targets for 1985 Projetted Gasoline Consumption _Reduction-in-Fuel ___Country_ -1985 Use. 1978-85 (kilometer per liter) (percent) 'Australia 8.5 11.8 -28 Canada 7.6 11.6 -34 France 12.2 13.7 -11 Japan 11.61 12.8 - 9 Swedvi 10.91 -10 United kisigdoni 10.0 11.0 - 9 Unitedptes 7 11.6 -34 West Germany 10.4 11.9 -12 ID.0.1fiff 1970. sotatt.L. Internal:4mA Energy Agency. Avorldwtrter:T Outlook (Parts Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development. 1982). disappear by 1985, the French and Japa- the amount of oil used is heating. In the nese, whose 1978 cars_ were already the, United States, the use of fuel to beat resi- most fut.1-efficient, should still maintain dential and commercial buildings has a narrow letad. fallendramatically,particularly since In 1975.Americanautomobiles 1978. (See Figure 34.) In 1973 the burned roughly half the gasoline con- United States used an average of 2.23 sumed by the world fleet. Raising fuel million barrels of oil daily for residentia' efficiency in the United States is thus a and commercial space heating. By 1982, keyto reducing world dependence on the figure was 1.27 million barrels, a de- petroleum. U.S. gasoline use peaked at cline of 43 percent.? The bulk of this 113 billion gallons in 1978; after three drop was due to conservation, but there decades of continuous growth, con- Million sumption dropped some 13 percent Barrels within five years. Virtually all o'f this was Per Day due to conservationa combination of improved mileage; changes in driving habits, including reduction of less essential driving and the formation of car 2.0 pools; and the lowering of speed limits. In per capita terms the trend was even 15 more striking. falling from 515 to 437- gallons between 1978 and 1982.6 This 0 15 percent decline in gasoline use in a society thought to have a "love affair with the automobile" was not widely an- 0.5 ticipated. And its impact spread far be- sour( Dept Energy yond the auto industry (as will be dis- T cussed in Chapter 9). 1952 1960 1970 1980 1985 The second area in which conserva- Figure 3-1. U.S. Residentiel and Commercial tion has played a major role iti reducing Use of Petroleum, 1952-32

w. ti J .

(40) State of the WorldI984 has been some substitution of other en- oil use, opportunities for energy conser- ergy sources. particularly of natural gas vation may be at least as great- as mire and firewood in residential heating. Effi- industrial world. A 1980 repon from ciency gains have largely stemmed from Energy/Development International con- insulation, overall weatherizing, and the cluded that "conservation, a subject not more efficient management of heating widely discussed in the context of third systems in large buildings. world energy policy, appears to be at impressive though this gain is in the least as promising as all the renewable United States. it would have been even technologies taken together in terms of larger if the country had adopted stih its capacity to replace projected LDC energy efficiency building codes like (less de; _'aped country) oil demand."' those introduced in France or Sweden during the law seventies. As with auto mobile efficiency. heating-fuel efficiency also increased in virtually all Western industrial countries. PETROLEUM SUBSTITUTES Souse gains in conservation can be made quickly7-by reducing speed limits While governments everywhere were for automobiles, for example, or by turn- launching energy conservationpro- ing down thermostats. Others involve grams during the late seventies and early the turnover of existing stock of automo- eighties, a combination of governmental biles. airplanes, or buildings. and take mandates and market forces fostered a much longer. The automobile fleet turns bread substitution of other fuels for oil. over almost completely every 10-12 The substitute fuels, varying by country years. depending on the country and the and even by region within countries, in- durability of the cars. Housing stock clude the other fossil fuels (coal and nat- changesveryslowly, howeverover ural gas), numerous renewable sources decades or generations. Oftentimes ret- of energy, and nuclear power. In some rofitting provides a way to shortcut this sectors, such as electricity generation very slow tdruover. and heating, the substitution of other energy sources was easy; in others, notably transportation, it was difficult to say Inthe United States millions of the least. Perhaps the largest single fuel substi- It mes switched from heating oil to tution was of coal for oil in the genera- w..,od between 1973 and 1983. tion of . lectricity. This was a worldwide shift, driven largely by thewide price gar that opened up between the two fossil A similar situation exists in industry. fuels as the world oil price climbed. &m od efficiency gains can be made After 1979, the energy-equivalent price quickly by modest adjustments in proof coal was only one-third that of oil. cesses, but others occur over time as Even with additional expenditures on equipment is replaced. if the fuel effi- smokestack scrubbers by utilities, coal ciency gains embodied in new equip- invariably a dirtier fuelwas still far ment are great enough. the replacement cheaper.' of capital stock wig accelerate. The switch from oil to coal in electri- Although using substitute, mainly re- cal generation can be illustrated by the newable. fuels in developing county -t changes' in the United States. After a seems the most realistic way to reduce steep, decade -long climb. interrupted

56 Muting Drpendente on Oil (I') only brie fh alto the 1973 oil pine hike. "I he substitution of nuclear power lot US. oil consumption bs electrical utili- oil - generated de( flit us has been wn- ties peaked in 1978 at 1,74 million bar- t cunt Med in a few industrial countries. rels per do. (See Figure 3-2.) II, 1982. namel, those that were he a% depen- II had dropped 61 percentto 680.000 dent on this source of clctricits and that Wads a do.. Within four eais utthtie had expanded their nuclear electrical had tin oil use oser a million hat t els pet generation capacity Oldie major indus- day, accounting foi roughly one -third of ttial «mmries. mils Fiance and Japan the °serail 3 million bat tel per das drop sausfs both triteria. Nuclear elethical in U.S. oil consumption between 1978 generation in West Germany. the United and 1082. Since U.S. nuclear electrical Kingdom, and the United States is ex- generation nu re ased only 2 percent d"r- panding slow Is and ;n the Soviet Union ing tins period, nearh all the mint. in thei e is hide substat.tion of nuclear elec- in oil use tame from the um eased useof ts icit for oil. Even thonAa the long-term coal. lo prospectfor nuleat power is not prom- 'Fo replace oil- generated eletricus. ising because of high costs (as discussed t ()unities have also been turning to h- in Chapter 7), plants that have been droelectunts nuclear power. and 101- undi. construction over the last 10-15 ous renewable sours es (which are dis- sears have been coming on stream re- cussed in :note detail in Chapter 8). As cntly.l2 the price of oil has climbed. the Third A second major area of substitution World has been paructilatly interested has been that of wood for healing oa, Inlh dropowei as a source of additional pan tie Wart, to iesidences. This has been electrical power. Strong!) supportedhs most impressive in the United Slates, the World Bank and other international heie millions of homes swathed iron:, agencies, the des elopmem of do- heating oil to wood between 1973 and power from both large- and small-st ale 1983 to take advantage of the lower fuel projet is has pint veiled hipidissince prices. A national survey in 1911 in- 1973.'1 dicated that 17 million otit of 79 minion U.S. households relied on wood for part on or all of their heating.el. Of these, 6.5 Barrels million relied on wood exclusi%eh. This Pet 1)1% 0 shift. driven b economic considera- .souui to tions. is expected to continue for the plop Imeseable h tine., albeit al a slower 1a. pacc.3 3 People are rehing on wood more in developing countries as well, but for cooking rather than heating. As cities I0 grew and as defOrestation progressed in the "Third Wolk! from the fifties through the seventies, consumers turned to kero- 0 5 sene as a cooking fuel. After the 1979 oil price hike. howes er. the price of kerosene climbed to over $1.00 a gallon almost vers where. In Addis Ababa kero- IOW 191i11 It170 I980 1911 i sene cost S 1.20 iu 1981; in Islamabad. Figure 5.2. Petroleum Used by U.S. Electrical S1.05: and in Santiago, $1.29. (See Utilities. 1950-82 'Fable 3-4.) (42) Stateofthe World-1984 Table 3.4. Kerosene Prices in Selected the Soviet Union is not only turning o Third World Cities, 1981 this fuel domestically but is also expanding rapidly its exports to both Eastern Pore Per and Western Europe. Although the env Gallon country rrently has a rather remark- (dollars) able balance in its national energy bud- Mexico City 024 geteach of the three major fossil fuels New Della 0.73 supplies roughly one-third of total en- Buenos Aires 0 94 ergy consumptionnatural gas is now Islanmbad 1 05 moving into a dominant position. Re- cent Soviet efforts to produce more coal Bangkok 1.10 as a substitute for oil, a valued source of At cra 1 20 foreign exchange earnings, have not Addis Ababa 1.20 been very suct essfel,.l4 Nairobi 1 20 Within the transportation sector, na- Singapore 1.21 tional stcesses in developing substi- Santiago 1.29 tutes for oil-derived fuels have been Manila 1.49 rare. The numerous coal liquefaction, San Salvador 1.58 tar sands, and oil shale projects that were being discussed or launched in the sot Itt.1I. S Depm tenon of Energy. knergy information Atimmestr.otoon. 1981 Inknunional Etietg, late seventies (see Chapter 9) have Anginal (Washington. D C 1982) largely been canceled, abandoned. or put on hold. There are, however, two With these prices, and with annual in- notahle exceptions to this generaliza- comes that frequently average only $200 tion, as mentioned earlierBrazil and per person, the cost of kerosene has South Africa. becotne prohibitive. The demand for Brazil, importing some 85 percent of firewood has consequently increased its oil, launched a concerted effort in sharply. Where firewood has not been 1975 to produce alcohol from sugar- al. ailable, consumers have turned to cow cane. Using a wide range of government dung and crop residues. One unfortu- credits and other subsidies. the world's nate consequence of this particular sub- ;argest producer of sugar has made stitution for petroleum is that the use of steady progress. In 1976 the country straw. leaves, stems. and roots of agricul- produced just over 1 million barrels of tura, plants far fuel reduces the son's alcohol for both industrial and fuel uses, organic matter content, and hence its scarcely 1 percent of its annual gasoline productivity. consumption of 92 million barrels. (See World substitution of natural gas for Table 3-5.) By 1983, industrial alcohol oil Is concentrated in the industrial sec- production had exceeded 34 million tot s of the Soviet Union and in the coun- barrels per year. and alcohol for fuel tries that depend on it for fuel. including displaced 29 million barrels of oil, ac- particularlyPoland, Czechoslovakia, counting for roughly one-fourth of auto- East Germany, and West Germany. Pe- motive fuel consumption. With a heavy troleum production is now declining in external debt, the pressures to reduce oil Romania, once a leading world oil ex- imports will continue in Brazil, giving porter, and apparently leveling off in the the alcohol fuels program further impe- Soviet Union. so the pressure to develop tus. Is oil substitutesis mounting. With the South Africa. mindful of its political world's largest reserves of natural gas, vulnerability at the international level,

55 Reducing Dependence on Oil (43) Table 3-5. Sm& Alco1.. Share of How last the demand for a commodity Auto Fuel Consum;dion, 1970-82 falls as its price rises depends on what economists describe as the price elastic- Alcohol ity of demand. This in turn is infltienced Skirt. by the availability of alternatives, includ- e.si Altohol 6,11rieIota!of 1 ot,11 ing. in the case of oil. the cost of' conser- (million barrel.) (pert elle) vation. For petroleum, the ilmiency of 1970 1.1 61.0 62.1 18 -spot' or shorttertn prices to rise well 1971 15 66.8 68.3 2.2 above the cont:act price for oil during 1972 2.6 73 2 77.8 33 times of international shortages indi- 1973 1,8 87.6 89.4 20 cates the inelasticity of demand in the short gun. 1974 1 1 90.2 91 1 1 The price of oil over the longer term 1975 1.1 92.0 93.1 1.2 houl be seen both in current anu real 1976 1.1 92.3 93.4 1.2 prices-that is, the price after adjust- 1977 4,0 88.7 92 7 4.3 ment for inflation. In current terms, the 1978 9 5 95 3 104.8 9 1 postwar oil price reached a low of $1.28 1979 13.0 986 112.5 12.4 a barrel in 1969 and a high of $33.47 in 1980 16.3 88.1 104.4 15.6 1982. (See Table 3-6.) Yet this greatly 1981 19 1 83 3 102 4 18.7 overstates the real price change because 1982 26.2 85.0 1'12 23.6 this was a period of record worldwide 1983 28.6 inflation. soacts 1970-79 from World Lim. Indoors. Using theInternationalMonetary The Ennio Decade1970-S0 (CatothrK:ge. Atm 1141- Fund's consumer price index (1975 linger Publishing Co .1982).1980-83 froin Journal equals 100) to adjust for inflation reveals ofCommeme, April 5. 1983. and Wordnatch tool. a somewhat different trend,Inreal tote estroutcs tems, the postwar price of oil bottomed has made a sustained effort over the kst in ;970 at $2.09 a barrel. It increased in decade or so to increase its production six Gr the next ten years and reached a of liquid fuel from coal. Highly success high of $16.48 in 1980-almost exactly ful in this regard. it is now obtaining eight tiriP..1 the price in 1970. Adjusting roughly half its automotive fuel from the price of oil for inflation mveals an- coal.t6 otherline:resting,oftenoverlooked trend. Although current oil prices decreased only slightly from 1951 to 1969,, the real price of oil fell by some 61 percent, providing an irresistible economic THE ROLE OF PRICE lure to all countries. bot: industrial and developing. lie effectoil price rises have on demand As a rule, oil-exporting countries have is complicated by the impact of concerns chosen not to raise the domestic price of with security of supply in both the imme- petroleum products to keep pace with diate future and the long run. For some the world oil price. In effect, they are oil users,, the sense of vulnerability dur- snbsidizing their own consumption of oil ing the seventies among those who de- with income from the much higher expended heavily on oil led.to a search for port prices. Among the more extreme substitutes. For others, the dramatic oil cases is Venezuela, which had a retail price hikes spurred the reduction in oil gasoline price in 1981 of 130 a gallon.'? use. Such a low price could lead to an exag- ..

(4-1) Staleofthe World-1984 Table 3-6. World Price of Petroleum, In Canada, too, the price of oil was Current and Constant Dollars. 1951-83 below the world market. But in this case it was much more of a political issue, liar Current' Constants leaving the government reluctant to per- 01011;11.1, per barrel) mit Canadian prices to climb too far. 1951 1 71 5.38- :Vie Canadians have instead adopted a hunpromise that lets oil prices rise, but 1955 1 93 5 0.1 not to the world level." 1960 1 50 :1.71

1965 1.33 2.71 In several countries, the tax on gas- 1970 1 30 0.09 oline now exceeds the cost of the 1971 1.65 2 50 fuel itself. 1972 1 90 2 72 1973 2 70 3.53 1974 9.76 11.06 Some governments have used taxes to 1975 10.72 10 72 discourage consumption of petroleum 1976 11 51 10.35 products, particularly gasoline. In sev- 1977 12.40 10.01 eral countries, including Argentina. Bel- 1978 12.70 9.41 gium, the Netherlands., South Korea. 16 97 11 25 1979 and the United Kingdom, the tax on gas- 1980 28 67 16 48 oline now exceeds the cost of the fuel 1981 32.50 16,38 itself. According to the latest interna- 1982 33,47 , 14.95 tional compilation. South Korea, where 19833 29.60 22.22 gas costs 39.00 a gallon. and Ghana, at 1 For Saudi ATAUll Crock pi ( c41 at ILK 1.1nora $3.63 a gallon. were among the highest lic..th ul.ncti nun% IMF icicle% of minnow pin rs in the world. (See Table 3-7.) bawl on 1975 etpullittg 1(10 ,Prelaninan In the Third World, where kerosene sum I.International Monct,trt Fund, lionthh Ft. two tat Stamm c IWAslungtort. 1) C nionth1.1 consumption often exceeds that of gasoline, governments have attempted to re- Berated dependence on the automobile, strain the increase in prices. Because which would be to the country's detri- kerosene is the principal cooking fuel ment over the long term. and thus a consumer staple for low- Withinimportingcountries,the incomegroups, some governments Carter administration's docisiou to re- (such as in Sri Lanka) have raised the move controls from U.S. oil prices, an- price of gasoline well above the market nounced in April 1979. was certainly the price, using the added revenue to subsi- policy change with the greatest effect on dize the price of kerosene." world oil consumption, Oil price controls were to be phased out over 30 months, although the Regan administration removed, the last of them in Febru- ary 1981. thus compressing the process GOVERNMENT REGULATION into less than two years. This undoubt- AND INCENTIVES edly dramatized the price rise. thus further encouraging conservation and sub- Perhaps the easiest way to reduce depen- stitution. dence on oil would be to permit market

60 Reducing Dependence on Od (45)

Table 3-7. Gasoline Prices in SelectedCountries, July1981 Total (*.outlines Gasoline Gasoline Retail Where 'Fax Countri Retail Prue Tax Pt tee Exceeds Price (dollars) Solidi Korea 1.77 2.29 4 06 X Ghana 357 0.06 3.63 Belgium 1.27 1.44 2.71 x United Kingdont 1.26 1.36 2.62 Sweden 1 39 1.22 2.61 Japan 1 66 0.891 Ken9 1.71 081 2.55 Netherlands 1.24 1.23 2.49 X India . 1.46 0.991 2.45 South Mina 1.26 0.94 2.20 Ethiopia 1.93 0.23 2.18 Argentina (1.52 0.77 1.29 X United Slates 1.12 0.13 1.25 Colombia 0.20 0.61 0.81 X Mexico 0.29 015 0.44 Venezuela 0.12 0.01 0.13 a Plus :1.5 percent % alue-added tax.trim 7 percent % dine-added tax. SOUR(.1. U S. Depe run tin of En erg% Keterto Information Adnnmstrat eon. 19111 Internaitanal enog, .intout1(Washington.DC 1981). forces to make the adjusttnents. but un- conflicting Interests. Builders are inter- fortunately ntarkets are imperfect and ested in minimizing construction costs. often shortsighted in behavior. Their since price is an important marketing shortcomings can frequently be over- tool. Occupants, however, are interested come by government regulations or the in lowering fuel bills. Yet be :ause own- use of financial or fiscal incentives. such ers and renters often change frequently, as the taxes described in the previous their interest in thermal efficiency is not section. These policy tools can be used very strong. Getting governments to es- both to conserve oil and to encourage tablish energy efficiency standards for the substitution of cheaper. sustainable buildings is thus important." sources of energy. The northernmost industrial coun- Many governmental regulations are tries have been particularly active in this designed to increase energy efficiency. area. In 1977. for example, Sweden making it difficult to single out those passed a building code requiring a ther- aimed specifically at increasing the effi- mal efficiency nearly double the national ciency of oil use. One area in which the average of buildings constructed before market does not always perform well is 1970. Although these new standards are in reducing oil use in the residential/ only about 20 percent above the thermal commercial sector. Oftentimes builders efficiency of homes actually being built and potential occupants of buildings, in 1977, they are nonetheless playing an both residential and commercial. have important role in increasing the thermal Cl (.16) State of the World -1984 efficiency of die Hill lotted building stock. This provides consumers with informa- Denmark passed a building code in 1079 tion needed to minimize energy con- that also provided for a far more strin- sumption while responding to market gent thermal efficiency than the stan- signals. dards voluntarily followed by huilders at Sometimes government regulations that time.21 or incentives arc useful when the mar- Because both residential and conuner- ket does not respond quickly enough, cial buildings arc replaced so slowly. so- such as in the transportation sector. In cieties also have att interest in retrofit- addition to the adoption of fuel effi- tingexisting structures.Canaja's ciency standards discussed earlier, most national energy program, adopted in governments of industrialcountries October 1980, includes federal grants of have lowered speed limits for automo- up to $500 to help (rioters insulate their biles. West Germany, where motorists homes. The government of the United staunchly resist such limits, is a notable Kingdom provides grants up to £50 for exception.24 installing home insulation.Another Governments have alsorelied on widely used governmental intervention regulations and financial incentives to to reduce fuel use is the adoption of encourage a switch from oil to less maximum building temperatures in win- scarce, less costly fuels. Australia, for exter and minimums in summer. In some ample, has provided tax concessions to cases, such as in France, these tempera- industry for conversion from oil-fired tures arc mandatory in commercial equipment. Canada's 1980 energy pro- buildings, and government tnonitors gram authorized grants to homeowners periodically check for compliance, In and businesses to convert from oil-fired other countries they arc voluntary but heat to alternatives, The Japanese Gov- widely adhered to; these governments ernment provides low-interest loans for rely on example and exhortation to re- the purchase of solar panels to heat duce oil used for space heating.22 water. And the United States provides The market also fails to raise energy nonrefundable income tax credits up to efficiencyinmultifamilyapartment $4,000 for homeowners who install solar huildings where heating and cooking heating equipment.25 fuel and electricity arc bulk-metered for Brazil. as noted earlier, has perhaps the building as a whole, thus providing gone furthest in encouraging the shut little incentive for individual occupants from oil to alternative energy sources. In to conserve. One remedy for this, which addition to using subsidies to encourage has been adopted by many governments. the substitution of alcohol for gasoline is simply to require that apartment units as an automotive fuel, the Brazilian Gov- be mete§ ed individually. ernment is also encouraging the chemi- Energy efficiency standards can be es- cal industry to switch from petroleum tablished for household appliances as feedstocks to alcohol 26 well as for houses themselves. ht an En- Incentrallyplannedeconomics, ergy Conservation Law passed in Octo- where the market's role is limited, the ber 1979, Japan set rigorous standards multiyeardevelopmentplan itself for refrigerators, air conditioners, and becomes the central instrument-for re- lesser appliances." In some cases a com- ducing dependence on oil. For example, bination of regulation and market forces in the Soviet Union's eleventh Eke-Year can be effective. Some governments sitn- Plan (198I -85), reducing dependence ply require that the energy efficiency of on petroleum depends heavily on the an appliance he clearly stated on a label. substitution of other forms of energy, ---- ., . ' 62 Redwing Dapendence on 0:! 147) especially of mu fear power for oil in of comers anon in the Eastern bloc is ec- thermalelectricalgeneratingplants. onomic reform.29 During this period. nuclear power was to China. on the other hand, is much provide all the growth in electricits in more adept at adjusting the energy mix the European Soviet Union. but its de- quickly. After many years of rapidly ris- velopment is lagging hadly .22 ing oil consumption. the government A most: to Soviet industrial boilet s effectively and rather abruptly resersed on coal is not working well either, largely this trend in 1979 in order to free up oil hecausecoal. productionhasfallen for export. Oil, use is being reduced in below the plan's target every year since China by converting to coal in both elec- 1976. As a result. &MCI dependence on trical generation and in industrial uses.99 oil had not declined at all as of 1981. The experiences of centrally planned While other industrial countries have and market economies demonstrate the mosed vigorously away from oil In elec- wisdom of relying on the market wher- trical generation, it still figures promi- ever possible to reduce energy con- nently in the Soviet Limon. accounting sumption. But one reason market econo- for close to one -fifth of the country's mies, in industrial as well as developing total oil use.29 . countries, have been much more suc- The ponderous Soviet planning bu- cessful in both conserving oil and switch- reaucracy scents particularly ill equipped ing to alternative sources is that they to make quick course corrections or to have been ahle to effectively combine read the changing international scene. those market forces with government Soviet planners placed emphasis on oil- regulations and incentives. intensive technologies and supply agreements just as Western countries were moving away from oil dependence. making the eventual change to substitute fuels even more abrupt. Conservation. too, has proved espe- THE OIL INTENSITY OF ciallydifficultincentrallyplanned ECONOMIC ACTIVITY economies. though the potential and economic rationale for saving energy ap- With oil consumption declining each pear to be as great as in the West. In year since 1979, the world is far less de- contrast to Soviet efforts to phase out pendent on oil today than it was during od, which depend on the government's the late SCV1;11(iCS. Obviously. as CCQ- own plan. conserving oil depends on be I101111C output expands and oil consump- havioral changes by plant managers and tion declines, the oil intensity of eco- individuals, and these in turn depend nomic activity declines even faster. upon exhortation. something to which Ever since the first oil price hike, en- the typical So% let citizen has hecome ergy analysts have focused on changes in rather inured. Desired changes in this this ratio of energy to gross national activity may come only with economic product (GNP). As the world is running liberalization. Czech energy analyst 1st- out of oil but not of energy. the oil inten- On Doboxi. citing a Soviet source that sity of economic activity is particularly "with sharplyrising production and important. The amount of oil required transport costs for additional output. to produce $1.000 of gross national per energy unit. conservation costs little product has varied widely among'couti- more than half as much as new sup- t ries, from a low of roughly one harrel or plies." concludes that the major source less in China and India to a high of five 63 (48) State the 'Siff 1d-1984 bar'rels in the United States at the peak as the United States in reducing the oil of the oil age. (See Table 3-8). Over the intensity of their economic output over past generation the United States has the last several years. The Soviet Union, been by far the world's most oil-inten- however. which has had to rely on eco- sive.economy. using easily twice as much nomic planning to move toward other oil per $1,000 of GNP as Japan, the So- energy resources and onsexhortation to viet Union, or the United Kingdom. decrease oil use, has been remarkably An abundance of low-cost indigenous unsuccessful. Indeed, the oil intensity of oil fostered this U.S. dependence, which Sovieteconomicoutputcontinued the other Western industrial countries climbing through 1980, the last year for and Japan were able to resist because, which data are available. except for the United Kingdom in recent The trends within developing coun- years, they had to impon most of the tries are less consistent. India, which re- petroleum they used, Now this too has lies heavily on coal in its industrial sec- begun to change. Between 1977 and tor, has a relatively low use of oil per 1982 the United States reduced its de- $1,000 of GNP. But its oil intensity in- pendence on oil from just under five bar- creased throughout the seventies, reach- rels per $1,000 of gross national product ing a historical peak in 1979. Although to just under four barrels, followed by a modest downturn in 1980, Othet major Western industrial coun- the Indian performance did not begin to tries and Japan have done at least as well match the decline of one-fifth between Table 3-8, Oil Intensity of Gross National Product in Major Countries, 1960421 United West rotted King- Ger- Soviet l'e.trStates (loot Pr.ma e mans japanUnionGiuliaIndiaBrazilMexico els of oil tbed per $1.000 ol GNP) 1960 4.95 1.82 0 98 0.75 1.11 1.52 0.36 0.38 1.27 2.06 1965 4.60 2.47 1.45 1.50 1.82 1.81 0 38 0.50 1.24 1.67 1970 5.03 3.06 1.93 1.82 2.36 2,05 0.73 0,58 1.33 1.76 1971 5.03 2.98 1.99 1.90 2.45 249 0.86 0.66 1.28 1.77 1972 5.11 3.12 2.04 1.93 2.35 .24 0.95 0.67 1.34 1.77 1973 5.11 2.97 2.10 1.95 2.51 2.25 1.04 0.69 1.39 1.80 1974 4.94 280 1.91 1.73 2.48 2.31 1,23 0.69 1.36 1,87 1975 4.90 2.47 1.80 1.70 2.20 2.42 1.32 0.69 1.35 1.98 1976 4.98 2.37 183 1.74 2.92 2.38 1.41 0.70 1.38 2.09 1977 4.98 2.36 1.74 1,78 2.31 2.46 1,42 0.70 1.38 2.13 1978 4 88 2.95 1.64 1.84 2.16 2.47 1.26 0.75 1.35 2.18 1979 4.69 2.32 1.73 178 2.18 2.48 1.20 0.83 1.42 1.98 1980 4.36 2.12 I .63 1.54 1,89 2.54 1.13 0.78 1.29 2.48 1081 4 91 1982 3 98 'Peak sear in hold. so, act Oil konstomplusit data Irtmt1: S Deportment ol Ettergs. tamp, Wm maim) Adntitustrmion, 1482 Aimed Limp Re my (Washington. I) C.. 1983). GNP clam tio 1980 dollars) from Herbert R itifx Am/km /Wm/ Hi 1980 3 Creolove Pause! 0 C S Dep.trtiocitt of State. 1981)

64 Reduring Dependfnef on (h1 (49) 1977 and 1980 in the oil intensity of (line in the oil intensity of economic ac- China's gross national product. Ironi- Urn.. Since 1979 the fall has heen both cally India. an oil importer, became steady and substantial. dropping oil use more oil-intensive while oil-exporting per $1.000 of gross world product to China was steadily reducing its depen- 1.74 harrels. dence on petroleum. Within Latin America the situation was more predictable. Mexico. a leading oil exporter. raised toil content of its economic output rather steadily, reach-reach- THE OIL PROSPECT ing nearly 2.5 /barrels per $000 of puzduct in J80- --wellabove all the Futureoil consumptionwillhein- Wesrernitfdustrial countries except the fluenced by constraints on supply as well United Sv.tes. Brazil. meanwhile. main- as demand. Supply-side constraints are tained a fairly cieady level ofabout1.3 hoth geological and political. while de- barrels during the seventies. A conibina- mand considerations involve foreign ex- UM Of substitution and conservation change at the national level and purchas- pet inured Brazil to initiate a downturn ing power at the individual level. in the oil content of its economic output On the supply side. production has in 1980. reducing it by an impressive 9 peaked and is declining in a number of from the preceding year. oil-exporting countries. The hig three For the world as a whole, the oil inten- producersthe United States. the So- sityof economic output increased stead- viet Union. and Saudi Arabiaillustrate ily from 1950 to 1973. going from 1.33 the range of production possibilities. harrels per $1.000 of GNP to 2.27 U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 and bands. (See Figure 3-3.) The In° oil declined steadily until the late seventies. price adjustments during the seventies when there was a modest increase. (See launched what seems certaintobe the Figure 3-4.) As a result/of the frenzy in beginning of a long-term historical de- oil drilling and prod4ction associated with the two oil price hikes and the Noels decontrol of oil prices in the United l'eg SUNNI States, production has held steady since Oupin 1978 at 8.6 million harrels per day. a .5 million harrels less a day than in 1970.31 Once thus bolsi of activity associated with rising oil prices has passed. U.S. oil production is expected to resume the decline it started in the seventies. 1 5-...... ,..., The big push in Soviet oil development is historically recent, most of it oc- ip- curring since 1970. The steep growth from 1960 to 1980 reflects the all-out III effort by Soviet leaders to develop their %,00,e1 .10,es Peirolonn Ina, Per ril Ws oil resource. both as a major internal fuel and also as a source of hard-cur- j rency export earnings. Although the 195n 19ho 197(1 1980 19$1 Soviets would like to expand production Figure 3-3. Oil Intensity of World Economic further. the decline in the all-important Output. 195043 rent:ryes-to-production ratio that slowed

5 (50) State of the WorldI984 Million to turn downward within a few years, Barrels Per Dar substantial future output increases are expected in only a few countries, notably 13 .China and Mexico." Oil production declines in some coun- 10- tries, such as the Soviet Union, are due United States to a decline in the reserves-to-production ratio that makes it physically impos- Scotet 5 sible to continue to boost production. Union Elsewhere, notably in some of the members of OPEC., production is being .re- Sourrt. 101 Erstrg, Aglow) duced to suppoi:t the world price of oil at an agreed level. Political lisruptions, 195 0 111i0 1470 1980 1985 particularly in the Middle foss, are also Farm 5-4. U.S. and Soviet Oil Production, influencing production levels: And some 1950.85 governments, such as Saudi Arabia and Norway. are influenced by a "depletion growth in output in the early eighties is psychology," a desire to stretch out the likely to lead to a decline in the late eight- income from oil exports over a longer ies and nineties, barring some unex- period. This attempt to postpone the pected major oil field discovery. It is this day when the wells go dry could steadily difficulty in expanding oil output. com- lower world oil production in the late bined with the failure to increase coal output according to plan, that has led to eighties and nineties. The market impact the Soviet Union's crash progqm to de- of the basically healthy fear of using up velop its vast gas reserves." an irreplaceable resource is hard to Of the major oil producers, only Saudi gauge. But just as the changing market Arabia has enough reserves to markedly psychology drove prices up in the seven- raise output beyond previous peak levels ties, the emergence of a strong depletion if market conditions warrant it. Whether psychology could markedly reduce oil. the Saudis choose to produce at full ca- production below the levels commonly pacity is another matter, however, since projected for the remainder of this cen- they have served as the residual supplier tury. within OPEC and have sometimes single-handedlysupported OPEC'soil price through deep production cuts. The combination of geological, eco- This range of future production pos- nomic, and psychological factors is sibilities also characterizes the situation likely to place end-of-century oil in other oil-producing countries.although more appear to be like the output well below the current level. United States than like Saudi Arabia. For example, production ;n Venezuela has fallen nearly 40 percent from its 1970 All these uncertaintiesarc enough to high of 3.7 million barrels per day. humble even oil experts who attempt to Other major producers experiencing predict tomorrew's production levels. more-recent declines include Algeria. Nevertheless, common sense suggests Iran. Iraq, and Kuwait. With production that to extend petroleum's lifetime, proof the major North Sea exporters, the duction in the near term should fall. The United Kingdom and Norway, projected key question is whether the long-term .,

. 1. 6 Reducing Dependence on Ott , (5i) decline in world output will be gradual petroleum well below the cost of oil pro- and orderly or irregular and disruptive. duced from tar sands in Canada. A Cana: lie combination of geological, eco- dian survey of eight projects that were nomic, and psychological factors is likely originally scheduled to start production to place etid-ol-century oil output well between 1980 and 1990 indicates an av- below the current level. Although a con- erage production cost of $52 per barrel. tinuation of the 5 percent annual decline U.S. oil shale and coal liquefaction proj- from 1979 to 1982 is obviously unlikely, ects designed to produce liquid fuel a further drop, perhaps a total of 15 per- showproductioncostsconsistently cent, between noand the year 2000 above the projected world price 6:ir con- seetns entirely possible, given the output ventional <41 at least through 1990,1 declines now under way in most produc- Beyond price, future oil consumption ing countries. This would put end-of- will be determined by changes in per- century world oil production at 16.3 bil- sonal income. Given the slowdown in lion barrels per year. down from 22.9 global ealitomic growift since 1979, it is billion barrels in 1979. If projected pop- by no means certain that thr affluence to ulation increases also materialize, pro- support oil - consuming habits, whether duction will fall to 2.6 bards per per- in the form of automotive fuel, cooking son. (See Figure 3-5.) In effect, each fuel, or otherwise, will increase apprecia- person will then be using only half as bly. Unless real incomes rise faster than much oil as at the peak of the oil age. the projected rise in real oil prices. the Out thedemand side, the price of oil 'scope for expanding oil consumption will be the dominant influence on con- will be limited. sumption. In its 1983 world oil price At the national level, mounting exter- projections, the U.S. Department of En- nal debts in a number of Third World and East European countries are making ergy's middle scenario projects a rise in it more difficult to import oil on the same the price of oil to $57 per barrel in real scale as in the past. In country after terms in 1990. This projected rise in country where the International Mone- prices still leaves the long-term price of tary Fund has had to intervene with emergency loans and has mediated debt Barrels Per Person rescheduling with private banks, sub- 6 stantial increases in petroleum product prices have been required as a condition of the loans. This is especially true for gasoline in countries such as Brazil and Mexico. Yugoslavia, in order to avert an 4 unmanageable increase in its international debt, introduced gasoline ration- lug. Poland, far in arrears in payments on its international debt, also rations 2 gasoline." As the age of oil slowly recedes, governments everywhere will be faced with Sowers. Awn Parttime, but.; Untied Nations; Worldwakh difficult choices in the use of dwindling supplies. In industrial societies the ques- $ 1950 19(10 19'70 1 80 11;90 2000 tion may eventually become a choice be- Fipte 34, World Oil Production Per Person, tween public and private transportation, 195043, With Projections to t000 with the more efficient rail system ex-

67 (52) State of she Wm Id-1984 panding at the expense 40d-dependent between fuel for private automobiles ,road transport. For many Third World and fuel for cooking, or whether to use countries still in the early stages of de- precious gasoline in cars or in irrigation velopment. the adjustments will come in pumps and tractors. Unless govern- the form of conditions imposed by the ments develop policiesthat channel International Monetary Fund and World scarce oil supplies to the most essential Bank in exchange for continued financ- uses, affluent Motorists could easily ing of development. Increasingly, Third outbid farmers, World governments will have to choose

'-.Ii-I: 4

C 4

Coriserving Soils Lester R. Brown

Between 1950 and 19'75 the world de- than foreign sourcps. mand for grain douhled. spurred by Grave though the loss of topsoil may both population growth and rising afflu- be, it is a quiet crisis, one that is not ence. It will double again by the end of widely perceived. Unlike earthquakes, the century if the projected growth in volcanic eruptions, or other natural population and income materializes. disasters, this humanmade disaster is un- Thisunprecedentedquadruplingin folding gradually. It is not always widely world food demand within 50 years is recognized because the intensification of putting more pressure on many of the cropping patterns and the plowing of world's soils than :hey can sustain, marginal lands that leads to excessive In the face of this continuously ex- erosion over the long run can lead to panding world demand for grain and the production gains in the short run, thus ..ssociated relentless increase in pres- creating the illusion of pros ress and a sures on land. soil erosion is accelerat- false sense of food security. ing. In effect, mounting economic prls- Although soil erosion is a physical pro- sures are degrading the resource base. cess. it has numerous economic conse- Itt 1080 Anson R. Bertrand. a senior quences. affecting productivity, growth, U.S. Department of Agriculture officiai, income distribution, food sufficiency, described the situation in the United and long-term external debt. Ultimately, States: The economic pressureto it affects people. When soils are depleted generate export earnings, to strengthen and crops are poorly nourished, people the balance of payment.;, and thus the are often undernourished as well. dollarhas been transmitted more or less directly to our natural' resp...ce base. As a result, soil erosion today can he described as epidemii. in proportion."' Bertrand's linkage between eco- THE CAUSES OF SOIL nomic pressure and resource deterio- EROSION ration applies el- here aswell; in ,st countries, 'le demand The apparent increase in soil erosion pressures comet sa igenous rather over the past generation is not the result C3 (50 Stair of the florid 198.1 of a decline in the skills of fainters but landslides has bee me an integral part of rather of the pressures on farmers to daily 16..2 produce more. In an integrated, siorld Researc h m Nigeria has shown how food economy, the pressures on land re- much more serious erosion can be on sources are not confined to particular sloping land that is unprotected by ter- countries:theypermeate the entire races. Cassava planted on land of aI world. Many traditional agricultural sy s- percent slope lost an average of 3 metric terns, that were ecologically stable as re- tons per het tat e each year. comfortably cently as mici-century. when there were oelow the rate of soil loss tolerance. On only 2.5 billion people in the world. are a 5 percent slope. however, land planted breaking down as world population to cassava eroded at a rate of 87 tons per moves toward 5 billion. hectare annuallya rate at which a top- Over the millennia. as the demand for soil layer of six inches would disappear food pressed against available supplies entirely within a generation. Cassava farmers devised ingenious techniques planted on a 15 percent slope led to an for extending agriculture onto land that annual erosion rate of 221 tons per hec- was otherwise unproductive while still tare, which would remove all topsoil keeping erosion in check an:I maintain - within a decade. Intercropping cassava lug land productivity. These techniques and corn reduced soil losses somewhat, include terracing, crop rotations. and but the relationship of sod loss and slope fallowing. 'Today. hind farmed through remained the same.3 these specialited techniques still feeds much of humanity. Although these prac.-1 ' aces have withstood the test cif time. they are breaki 4 down in some slum- Much of he decline in inherent soil thins under the pressure of continuously fertilitythat occurs under row rising demand. crops is being masked by advances Iii mountainous regions such as those in technology. in Japan, China, Nepal. Indonesia. and tit . Andean countries, con aruction of terraces historically permi.ted farmers to cultivate steeply sloping land that Throughout the Third World increase would otherwise quickly lose its topsoil. ing population pressure and the ac- Centuries of laborious effort are embod- celerating loss of topsoil seem to go ied in the elaborate systems of terraces laud in hand. Soil scientists S. A. Id- in older settled con cries. Now the grow- Swaify and E. W. Dagier have observed ing competition for cropland in many of that it is in precisely those regions with these regions is forcing farmers tiithe high population density that "farming of slopes at a pace that does not permit the marginal hilly lands is a hazardous ne- disciplined construction of terraces of cessity. Ironically, it is also in those very the sort their ante ,tors built. when pop- regions where the greatest need exists to ulation growth was negligible by com- protect the rapidly diminishing or de- fwison. Hastily constructed terraces on grading soil resources." It is this vicious the upper s-, i.es often begin to give way. cycle, setin motion by the growing These in t.i. n contribute to landslides human demands for food, feed, fiber, that sometimes destroy entire villages, and energy, that makes mounting an exacting a heavy human toll. For many effective resp se particularly difficult:* residents of mountainoui areas in the In other parts'of the world farmers Himalayas and the Andes, fear of these have been able tr, cultivate roiling land' Convening Soliv (551 without losing ex( essn e amounts of top. tolet ante les eh. whereas the higher rate soil IA using crop rotations. I'spa al 01 would lead tti thelostof one inch of these iegions is the nulls% estem tinted topsoil in less than a decade. Much of the States. Miele Linnet s tadimmall used decline in inherent soil lruht that o- longtet icitaiimis 01 ha). pasture. and c under row crops is being masked by tom. Fields planted HI Toss craps. such adsances in technology. particularly bi as coin. are most sus( (pubic to erosion 11* Increasing use of chemical renal/Tr. Bs alternating row (tops with cowl Fallo-wing has permitted tanners to rops Itke ha, the as erage animal rate Of wink the land hoth in semiarid regions soli erosion was kept to a tolerable level. and in the tropics. where nutrients are Not only do crop rotations provide more scarce. In vast semiarid areassue has soil «n et. ben the amount of of gam( Australia, the western Great Plains of matter that binds sod particles together Noi tit America, the Anatolian plateau of remains much higher thanitwould Turke). and the drylands of the Soviet under continuous row (Topping. Unionwhere there is not enough mois- As woo Id demand for U.S, feedstuffs ture to support continuous cultivation. sowed Ale Wm ld War II and as cheap altemat -vear cropping has evolved. mit ogen tenth/et reduced the need for Older tins system land is left fallow with- legumes. Slum an filmier, throughout out a cover crop every (* }ter year to ac- the Midwest the lowei Mississippi Val- cumulate moisture. The crop produced les. and the Southeast abandoned clop in the next smith, draws on two years of mullions to glow coin Or soshealls collected moisture. tintions1). The risks associated with this In some situations this practice would shift ,m cropping !mums have long lead to serious wind erosion if strip- been known. Research undertaken In cropping were not pcacticed simultane- Wow's dting the thirties showed an ously. Alternate strips planted to crops each year serve as windbreaks for the Inc tease in on erosion from 2.7 tons per au t. (1 acre itials 0.4 hectares) annu fallow strips. This combination of fal- all) when land was in a cm (i-uheat- lowing and strip-cropping permitted wheat production to continue in the closer notationt(.19.7 tons per 3er western U.S. Cleat Plains after (tie Dust when the sante land was planted con- Bowl years.5 tinuous!) to cora. (See Table 4-1.) The Rising demand for food has reduced lowei rate is within established erosion ih alert fidloed in kes drsland farming Table 4-1. Cropping System, and regions. As world wheat prices chnihed Soil Erosion sharply during the mid-seventies, U.S. summer fallow land dropped from 17 .1%(1.1ge Amami million hectares in 1969 to i3 million Clopping S stem 1.0%. (pi Son hectares in1974.6 This decline led Kenneth Grant. head of the U.S. Soil (ion /moo Comeevation Soviet., to warn farmers (:rn. wheat. doled 9 7 that severe until erosion and dust bowl thwer I citation conditions could result. He cautioned Coationious wheat 10 larmers against the lure of record wheat Continuous (0111 19.7 prices and short-term gains that would sot in iNI FSlille t. -(.r.opiong In Et.). sactifice the long-term productivity of sun( Control. Mossenni Experniient Si.innotttul Icon 566 1 1936). re prinitll in N.iitothil .gtn &anal their land. 0) 1977. die National Re- Lind% Studs. .seni Pren:rlaiton Pant. on .letirtilluia1 sources Inventory showed that wind ero- Preultittrvill IWdslosigton. I) ( 191401 sion in wheat-growing states such as

1 t 56p Slate of the Wodd-198.1 I otos and (.oiotado fat exceeded the gethet. these two trends hose offset the tolet ce loci...7 gains from the increased use olchomeal Atte same time, the amount of fal, lerttlizer. the adoption of improved % or- lowed land m the Scniet Union was ails) telies. and the expansion of irrigation. being minced Dining the late sixties Cereal s tads .tre no higher than they and carp sennes. the Stmt.'s woe were in the early sixties. cotelstentl%fallowing17-18 mdhon As population pi essure has intensified heciates each seat in the chland le- in tile I is er floodplains of northern '1 hat- glow Rut alto the massne c top shot I- land cner the last few decades. rice farm- fall and heirs % imports of 1972. the 'al- ers base migrated to the nearb% uplands lowed area was t educed bs one-thin!. Ks where dies practice rain-fed cropping. the coil% eighties SOS 10 011'16.11S 14 (4 e Earls migrants adopted a'slash and um nun e land to fallow in an dim t burn" %%stem with a cycle of eight to ten it) lesion. land pto-itunsits.s seats. w:Itich seemed quite stable. As tni- In the now( sstich as pal is of Ali ica grat ton has «mimed. ['owner, the for- south of the Sabato. Venezuela. the Am- est fallow csde has been -tortened to azon liasni. and the onto islands of lit- between two to four sears in mans arc as. &mowfallow nig is used to remote the In analszing thissituation. John M. let ulit% of the soil, lit these oleos more Schiller concluded that"soil erosion MA111'131% al t!St01 ell m segetation than in problems all: becoming c 'earls manifest lite soil. When cultisated and stripped of in some areas and the effect of increased i hen dense % egetatn e «net, soils of the ninon is causing increased flooding in humid tropics gun 1.1s lose then !mins. the low lands and the siltation adorns. A lit iesponse to these conditions, fanners potential's set-, unstable physical, eco- 'lase ohed a system of shifting (tilln.1- nomic, and social situation is do eloping 11011'1 he% cleat and ci op land fot two. in the affected areas.-0 duce. 01 possibly lout seats and then Similar pi essutes on land arc es ident sstematualls abandon it as crop s lads in tiopical Latin America. According to decline. \alma' segetatio I soon takes U.N. Food and Agri( ulture Organization mei the abandoned field. Musing on to tescarchers: **There is abundant evi- !resit tel fat :nets i (eat the process. dm e in c et'tain regions of Venezuela When these cultivators return to their that. with grossing population pressure. starting point alter 20-25 sears. the soil the fallow period is becoming increas- has legality(' enough !et Wits 10 support nigh shorter so that soil fertility is not c top pt oduction icn a lots seals. ionized before recropping. This leads Mounting population piessuies in the to a fill in the organic content and the tropics are lofting shifting culti% atm% to water holding capacity of the soil. Soil shin ten these totation (sties. As tins structure deteriorates and compaction happens, land productivity falls. A 1974 becomes more common ...in other %Volk! Rank studs teported that m Nig- words. with the population of modern el la "tallow periods under slating c uht- mnes, formed% stable. shifting cultiva- %anon base beanie too short to restore tion sssi ems are now in a state of break- lertilits in some areas." In some locales down."11 the in iganal cropping csde of 10-15 Another source of accelerated soil seals has ahead% been reduced tor; erosion in recent seats hos been the shift Sim e 1950. the (Topped area in Nigeria to 'auger farm equipment, particularly in has multiplied 2.5 times as nos land. the Sovtet Union and United States. In lam gels marginal, has been added and the United States. for example. the shift fallow ( %des hose been shortened. fo- to large-scale equipment has often led to CotRerring Soils (571 the abandonment of field tetiai es t on- Although detailed informationion on soil structed uII educe tuntill on sloping el osum all ihe lot al lesel 1s asailable (or lands. In (Inland farming regions. tree (ink .1 few commies. data on the sedi- liiItet belts that interfere with Meuse of ment load of the 'solid's major risers laige.st ale equipment h.nalso been and On the wind-borne mos einem of sod willow& I he enlargement ol fields to os et the oceans do twinkle a broad - atinimodate huge um tots and giant bi slew of soil eiosion at the conti- (mutinies also I Cd11( CS !Mittel .teals that nental 'mei. The mosi remit figures on fuse tradmonalls seised as thetks on mei sediment flow show the world's erosion. major rivers t al rsing !leas% loads of sod Tins nansforination of agricultural to the oceans. Data compiled in 1980 by at tit es has been fueled bs the growing three Chinese st ientists working for the %cod& ide demand lot C.S. feed t rips. Yellow Riser Conservancy ( :onn-lissom' paint-Wads t inn and sat beans. and hs it Beijing nub( ate(' Mat river was earn- the asailabilits of cheap chemical fernh- ing 1.6 billion tons of soil to the of can mi. Demand growth. in turn, has been each sear. (See Table 4-2.) Ilsdrologists amplified In population growth that has estimate that on average one-fourth of hastened the deterioration of traditional the soil lost through erosion in a riser's agriculture to mans countries. As a re- atershed actually makes it to the ocean sult, agt a WM1.11 %%stems throughout the as sediment. The other three - fourths is win Id ate now expet tent mg unsustaina- deposited on footslopes in resers oirs, on ble lesels of soil loss. riverfloodplams or amber low-lying areas. or in the river5ed itself, which often causes channel shifis.13 Close behind the Yellow River, in terms of silt load, is the Ganges of India, DIMENSIONS oF which deposits 1.5 billion tom of soil PROBLEM into the Bas ol Bengal each year. The Mississippi. the largest U.S. river, carries One of the first st ietinsts to assess the dimensions of world soil erosion was g- Table 4-2. Sediment Load of Selected ologist Sheldon Judson. who estimated Major Rivers it 1968 that the amount of nserliorne so 1 sidiment carried into the oceans had Annual nu leased from 9 billion 1011s per sell' Kist 1 Commies Sedmiem Load btlore the inuothienon of agriculture. Mullion metric gracing. and other activities to 24 billion tons) tons per sear..ittdson obsei s c- -Thine Yelkm Chem 1.600 is no question that man's occupant's of G,mpes India 1.455 the land increas s the rate of erosion. Anktion sew' al 363 While that ocitipanon is intense and is Nfroisstpptutted States 300 directed :o the use of land fOr cultoated itt"Add% Burma 299 crops. the different .is one or more Rose India 172 magnitudes glea.' than when the land Mekong se era' 170 is mle, a complete natinal segetaiise 4~141 such as grass or forestHis esti- t(11 att "Kam. mates indicate that humans base become 5 A ttia.01% mid Dmigirt. tall lusion in the t Mint S.% 51.iir ofIlse t.to an important geologic agent. asi aerat- %inertia,' Suttees of Age° ccccc 111. %tut t wit/ ing the Bost id tot) to the (weans, et onall aim/ in th,Irupsel iNfatimon. %%I St 1982)

73 Wit Stateofthe 11'0dd-1984 300 minion tam of soil hits the Gulf of Other governments should follow the Mexico each Year. far less than. the Yel- I.".S. lead and take careful inventories of low or the Ganges. Yet it represents top- their soil resources so as to determine soil from the agricultural heartland and the rate of excessive erosion. Only then is thus a source of major concern for will they have the information needed to 1..S. agronomists. 14 formulate intelligent agricultural and Scientists pace recentlY doe umemed population policies. that Yam amounis of wind-Wine soil are also being deposited in the oceans as sediment. Island-based air sampling sta- The Soviet Union may be losing tions in the Atlantic. along with recent satellite photographs. indicate clearly more topsoil than any other coun- that huge quantities ol soil dust aie try. being tamed ail of Ninth Africa over the Atlantic. Clearly visible from satellites. these huge plumes of fine soil pan- In addition to broad-brush estimates t les from the .n id and desert expanses of of oy exalt soil loss at the continental Noi di Alma at 111114:S create a dense hate lend. the other sources of mole detailed met the eastern Atlantic. Estimates of information on soil erosion from crop- the amout, of .111 to an sod being carried lands include goy ernmental surveys. west in this %%al.. 14IMPIttlilllfoor studies data on sedimentation of reservoirs and between 1972 and 1981. range from flyer sediment loads, reports from re- 100-400 million tons annualh. with the sear( h plots, and the observations of latest report bring at the upper end of agriculturalists. the range.15 I he United States is one of the coun- :% 1983 &sewe irticl reported a sum- tries that has analyzed its soil losses in lai loss of soil from .sia. soil that is detail. In response to the Resource Con- carried eastward over the Pacific. Air seil anon Act of 1977, the Soil Conserva- samples taken at 'the Manna Loa Oh- tion Sere ice undertook an exhaustive in- set t aim t in 11awaii from 1974 through semen) of land use and soil loss. Rased 1982 indicate .1 continuous moyemem on some 200.000 data samplings.it of sod parse les from the Asian main- yielded remarkably detailed information land. kith a peak annual flow consis- on local soil loss throughout the United tenth occurring in March. April. and States. 14%..1 lime that conu ides with a pc, mid Abet the National Resources Inven- ol stiong winds. low ramlall. and plow - tory gathered data on soil erosion. sub- mg in the sennand regions of North sequent analy ses related the rate of soil Asia. Scientists at Mauna Loa can now loss to the tolerable level. a rate that tell when spring plowing starts in North would not impair long-term productiv- ( :hina)" ity. Calculated at front one to five tons Although soil erosion data ale not per acre annually. depending on soil and a% ailable for most t OUIltileS, a rough es- climatic conditions. this figure repre- timate: of the excessive worldwide: loss of sents the maximum level of soil erosion topsoil from croplands is needed. With- that will permit a high !eye! of crop pro - out such an esimiate. assesmuents of the ductivity to be sustained economically world food prospet t ale unrealistic. the and indefinitely. The inventory showed estimate developed in _the following that oser one-third of U.S. cropland was pages is the hot that we can construct losing more than five tons of topsoil per from the information now mailable. acre. In total. the loss of soil at this ex-

74 Conserving SmA (59) cessite rate fiats the t ..St iiiplaial base rossks. 41 p1011111Wilt,soil scientist and di- of 413 million acres totaled 1.53 billion R.( tot of the Ka/akli Institute of Sod tons, with the bulk of it (tinting from less Sciem e. pubhcb chat ged the Ac.tdeiin than one-tenth of the clopland.17 of Agricultural Sciences with neglect of India is one of the few other t ()mulles soil problems. In a broadcast on Moscow to «ffliptle a national estimate of soil radio, Borovsk, argued that Soviet agri- erosion loss. In 1975. bahan agi *cultural c ulnae will he retarded without effective scientists collet ted data On 'owl soil eroe Al management. His warnings have re- sum froin each of the i eseart h stations in c en ed some support at the highest levels the national network maintained In the of Soviet government, with Politburo Indian CouncilforAgricultural Re- member Mikhail S. Gorbachev urging search, Using these figui es, dieses- planners to heed the advice of soil seien- timated that 6 billum inns of soil are tos,19 But in the face of pi essures to eroded from India'st toplands (Null expand linble' ton and reduce the food sear IS From this and (ruin an estimate import deficitnow the world's largest that 60 pert ent of the (upland is erod- sod st ienusts are often ignored and ing ext (vase's, the ex( mise topsoil loss responsible soil management practices ( an be t alculated by subtracting from are cast aside. the total a tolerant e les el of Inc tons per As in the United States, erosion has an e.lus s ields an ex«.ssis e topsoil loss been spurred by the shift to large, heavy Irom Indian *:upland of 4.7 billum tons equipment and the enlargement of pet sear, inure than twit e the i'.S. 'est.'. fields. which eliminated many natural I Inc estimate rests on (.n less data than boundail constraints on erosion of soil does the figure fin the United States but In both ss ind and water. Each year an it is based on infOrmation from agra al- estiamed half-million hectares of crop- twat m alit nos fimuliar with local soils land are abandoned because the% are so and it is mi 1 ()borate(' In dm- silta- severeb eroded in wind that dies are no tion of lisdroelectue re riser longer worth Wining. One scholar of sediment loads, and otht i1...arcct in- Sos let ens wonmenial policiesand di( atom. trends,Thane Gusiarson.observes. I he Sos tetUnion. whit IIhas the -Flits' scars of neglect have left a legacy world's largest t upland to ea. nip be of badis damaged soils."20 losing more 101)5011 than ass other coun- Ahhoagh there are no official figures trs. Although detailed information on on soil erosion, an estimate of Soviet soil the extent of the loss is not as adable. losses based on the local data that are malicious sow( es --nit haling Sostet re- asadable can be «impaied with the situ- search reports. publicstatements In ation in the United States. where de- scientists and gos ernincut officials. and tailed erosion information has been col- the obsei s aeons of s isitors from abroad lected.Two Sos let scientists,P. --nnate the %merits of the problem. Polems es and S. Vashnkosa, writing on Papet s published bs the Sod Elosion environmental protection and agricul- Labor:mill at the Universits of Most ins. ture m a Soviet economics journal in for e;tiiiiple. indicate a ss etc and st ors- 1978. reported that "two-thirds Of the etimg erosion %domain plowed land in the Soviet Union has During the eat Is eighties the olla ial been subjected to the influence of vari- Soviet press carried statements bs sod ous forms of erosion." Knowing the area scientists pleading with the agrit ultural Alec ted in erosion. only the rate of ero- bureaucrats to address the loss of top- sion need be determined to estimate the soil. And in earls 1981, Dr, Vladimir Bo- thud topsoil loss 11

76 i60) State of the WorldI984 Like the United States, the Soviet tare, Missouri lost 30 tons, and Iowa, Union has an extensive dryland farming just over 25 tons.22 area and a substantial irrigated area. The These data and observations suggest European Soviet Union, which accounts it is not unreasonable to assume that So- for a large share of total farm output. has % iet soils are eroding at least as rapidly as moisture levels similar to the U.S. Mid- those in the United States. If onci-third of west. In tertns of rainfall intensit%, to- the land is affected by erosion at the same pognipin, and erodibilit) of pre% aihng rate as in the United States, which may soil pes, nothing indicates that soil be a conservative assumption, the exces- erosion in the Soviet Union would be sive loss of topsoil from Soviet croplands markedly less than in the United States. is nearly 2.3 billion tons per year. Where (topping patterns are concerned. In China, the fourth major food-pro- the So% let Union relies much more hea% - ducing country. river siltation is now a ily on small grains, whereas the United nationally recognized threatone that States relies relatively more on row hasreached dimensions unmatched (lops. stub as corn and soybeans. elsewhere:Dust storms in the north and the siltation of major rivers indicate the heavy soil loss. Observations by outsid- ers who ha.ve been called in to help as- The world is now losing an es- sess soil conditions indicate that the ero- timated 23 billion tons of soil from sion rate in China is at least as great as croplands in excess of new soil for- that in India, where more detailed data mation. are available. A comparison of the load of the Yellow River in China with the Ganges in India indicates the relative Much of the So% iet grain land. how- magnitude of soil loss through erosion e% cr. t cumins bare during the winter and faced by these two population giants. earl spring, when rainfall is heaviest in The Ganges. with a drainage basin of 1.1 team regions of the country. In a paper million square kilometers, carries an an- presented m the United States in 1983, nual sediment load of 1.46 billion tons of P.S. Tregubov of the Dokuchaev Soil In- soil, while the Yellow River, which has a stitute in Moscow reported that land left drainage basin of 068.000 square kilo- in hare fallow to be sown to winter crops meters. (attics 1.6 billion tons of soil to sustained losses that far exceeded the the ocean each year. These numbers tate of new soil formation. lle obsered suggest that the rate of soil loss in China that "spring was found to be the most is substantially greater than in India. For dangerous period because soilsare the purposes of constructing a rough (hat acterited b% fluidit%after snow global estimate, however, it can be as- thawing." to dociunent this. Tregitbov sumed that the erosion rate on China's owl long-term experiments showing a ct (Timid is the same as in India. Given mean annual soil loss on bare fallow of China's smaller croplandarea,this 59 tons per bet tare annuall% in the Baltic means that China's excessive loss of top- Sea shore regions. 46 tons per hectare in soil from its croplands totals 3.3 billion the Rosto% region. and 32 tons per hec- tons per year. tare in the Trans( iiin Asian region. B% For most Third World countries infor- comparison. in the American states with mation on soil erosion is largely indirect, the most severe erosion rates in 1977. such as data on sedimentation of reser- Tennessee lost nearl% 41 tons per hec- % oirs and river silt loads. Other indirect

7G Laiisnite Soils 1611 souk es indude odor motion on t i opland a« ouni fot over half of as food produc- abandonment as a result of se%ere eio. tion, is emanated at 11.8 billion tons pi con and crop reports showmg long- ear. To obtain a rough idea of excessit e term declines in %aids. Among the most soil erosion for the world as a whole. au graphic soures ale reports bt zip it (a- assumption must be made about other lma!scientists.de. elopmenttet Inn- tountries. If the rates of soil erosion for clans. mid other obsertrs. (See I able the test of the world are similar 10 those .1-3,1 of the "big fintr"which is a consort a- Altogether. the excessite loss of top- nte assumption giten the pressui es on soil from cropland in the four major lattd in the Third Worldthen the world loud-produing countries, which have is now losing an estimated 23 billion 52 percent of the world's cropland and tons of soil from croplands tit excess of Table 4-3. Observations of Soil Erasion in the Third World

Comm.. Ohsemation Source Nepal "laical inhabitants ..all concur Matentata &seam!:andfkelopment (Katmandu) that the problem is more severe (Boulder. Col ). 1982 now than a generation ago. Pei ti "Eicisitin'et ectimated to affect .1fountatn ResearchandDevelopment between rit) and 60 percent of (Boulder. Coll. 1982 the surface ell the whole c ountri." Indonesia "Sod erosion is tic:ming an VS Einhics...jakarta. 1976 to (Joao)- et 44ogwai emergent. at Ja.a. a result of overpopulation_ which li.ic led to deforestation and misuse of hillstde areas lo land-htingis fainters Erosion is Iming sast to land at an Alarming rate. much faster than piesent reclamatimt programs can restore it." . Ethiopia "1 here is aik ens ormunental 1.' S. AID Mission. Addis Ababa. nighomaie unloldmg below out 1978 c.c.s Met I 1)1111011 too of topsoil flow hum thiopia's highlands each %ar South Alto a l'he pito nice of Natal. John lianks. Institute of Natmal nu oipmatnig Komulti. is losing Resouices. Natal. 1980 201) indium tons of topsoil autumns." nolnia "Recent aerial photogiaphs base ilelene Rniete (1'.%tc. Institut cis shriven the timid extension of 'lames Etudes c.%ineriqiie deseil-hke c (1(1113011.. !Meted 1)% 14130e. Paris. 1980 wind iosion." Iran ""l he area 01 abandoned t tiltisaled1 bit old Di gne. 1 vs" led) land has doubled in recent I'uneistt. 1971 seats"

7 7 $ 62) Sink ig Me Woid-1981 new soil foi indium. (See I able 4 -'i.) TIM EROSION OF neeatISC of the shortsighted way one- third to one-half of the world's crop- PRODUCTIVITY lands are being managed. the soils on Whens Nr erosion begins toexceed new these lands hat e been con% el led from a sod formation, the 'layer of topsoil mewabie to a nonrenewable resource. becomes thinner. eventually disappear- Assuming an average depth of remaining entirely. As the topsoil layer is lost, ing topsoil of seven inches. or 1,120 tons subsoil becomes part of the tillage layer, per acre, and a total of 3,1 billion act es reducing the soil's organic matter. tilth. of cropland, there are 3:5 trillion tons of and aeration, and adversely affecting topsoil with which to produce food, other structural characteristics that make feed, and fiber. At the current rate of ideal for plant growth. This overall excessive eiosion. the. resource Is being detetiorationin,soit structure is usually depleted at 0.7 percent per year-7 per- accompamed by a reduced nutrient recent each decade. In effect, the world is tention capacity, which lowers produc- mining nincli of its cropland, treating it tivity further. Additional chemical fertili- as .1 depletable iesource. not unlike oil. Whet' most of the topsoil is lost on zer can often compensate for the loss of nutrients. but the deterioration of soil land where the underlying formation structure is difficult to remedy. ((insists ol lock or where the productiv- The effects of erosion on productivity of the subsoil ism° kw to make coin- are not easily measured since they arc %anon mono:mud,itisabandoned. usually gradual and cumulative. In an More commonls. however. land i.vtitni- efforttounderstandtheerosion/ ties to be plowed es en though Iasi of the topsoil has been lost and even productivity relationship better, in 1980 the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture ap- though the plow laver contains a mixture pointed a National Soil Erosion-Soil of topsoil and subsoil, with the latter Productivity Research Planning Com- dominating. Other things being equal. mittee. Among other things, committee the real cost 01 food production on such members began gathering data from laud is far higher than on land whet e the past experiments to establish an empiri- topsoil layer reinams intact. cal foundation for predicting the effect Table 4-4. Estimated Excessive Erosion of continuing soil loss on crop yields and of Topsoil From World Cropland production costs. They reported that when corn was grown continuously on a otal 1.xt essise plot in Iowa from which the topsoil had Comins ('rnpLind Soil Lim been removed, yields were only 20 per- ent of those on a control plot. In an :Kies) ton+) experiment in Missouri, corn yields on a 4.13 1,500 desurfaced plot were 47 percent of those 020 '2.300 on the control plot. In this case, the sub- 346 4.700 soil was a clay loama higher-quality 245 3,300 subsoil than is commonly the case.23 In an experitnent in Fast Texas. cot- rotal 1,024 11,800 ton yields on land with the topsoil Reel of World 1,499 10,900 removed averaged only 32 percent of the control plot's. And in Minnesota. Total 3,123 22.700 yields on severely eroded soils were 501 R(1 Woitholt it iliSliltile roughly two-thirds those on slightly 7a Conersng Sorts (!67 ) et oded sods." A 1979 expeinnent on topoll leduil wheat skids 0.5-2.5 piedmont soils in Geo! gm designed to bushels per acre. In pert euttage terms, meamire the effects of erosion on corn the kiss of an inch i Mum! wheat ields %wick showed thatse% ereh eroded. an as erag of6 percent, exac tls the came moderatel% eicled. and 'winded soils a for corn. (See Table 1-6.1 .fleraged 36. 75. and 92 bushels iepec - All the studies on soil erosion and in eh. On these sods. reseal (Let s es- Loud piodoctunthat Lylescited timated that eat h c entimeter of topsoil showed that the excssiw loss of topsoil lost through water ettrtion 10114 ed the lowered ields measu rabh. although the a% erage torn sield b% 2.34 bushels per extent of sield reduction %ailed. And. as a( te.2 noted. his compilation ofstudies showed Leon IAN, an agi is Whit al engineer a remarkable surtilarit in the effect of w uh the U.S. Dept uncut of Agri( tam e: soil etosum on the steld of wheat. a crop has pros tided probabh the most comps - usual]) grown unda lower rainfall con- hensn e collection of research tesults on ditions. and that of win. usually grown the ffc t 01 soil erosion on land produc- in areas of higher rainfall. Recent. more it% us . (hawing on the work of U.S. soil detailed research on three soil types in sc lentists both within and outside gm - Minnesota shows that the effect of ero- eminent, lAles compared 14 indepen- sion varies with soil type and depth. It dent sninies.-1110II undertaken in the specificall notes that on some deeper Korn belt states. to 'OMURA to. the effects soils. such as the Kenyon soils that are 76 of a loss of one inch of topsoil on corn inches deep. the near-term effects of iields. llis curses found that midi a loss erosion ate negligible.26 For the world reclined ields from a low of 3 bushels as a whole soils of this depth constitute per mite to a high of 6.1 bushels pet a( re. a small share oldie total, an exception to iSee1 able 4-5 ) In percentage touts, the mote is pis 6-8 inches of topsoil the loss of an inch of topsoil reduced found on most cropland. ( inn %lads at these 14 cites bs an aser- Perhaps the most detailed analYsis to age of 6 percent. Results for wheat, date of the long-term effects of soil ero- (hawing on 12 studies. showed a similar sion on land productivity and food pro- relattonlup between soil erosion and duction costs is on undertaken for the land plochictiits. I he loss of an inch of Southern Iowa Conservancy District. Table 4-5. Effect of Topsoil Loss on Corn Yields Yield Redo( Hon Pei 1.11(atom NO ol 10pmn1 Lim Soil De q i pi ion

(hushelfac re) (pet vein) La1Ceti it al. Illmoi :3 7 1i5 Su %get tsilt fish Icotl let. 111111.11ht .0 3 rowlet. Itiookton, and Part Silt loam, Clarinda. Iowa 1.0 51 NI to hall AI Wain t 4 eenfiekl. Iona 3.1 1;3 Shekbs Ai loam , Shenandoah. Iona 11I 5I Mau shall .ill loam Bedlam. Mi... Jo 10 110 Shllo and (1ninth silt loam % Cohinibli. Ohio 3 0 Il.0 Celnia silt loam %Viimier, Ohio 18 83 ( :anlield cull loam sot Kt t % a11011% Ulm) I% i ch.('in I cols LAO. APO%lilit. Hirt l of U Old F1011(111 oil Soli iP)tfclikIi 11%." ioutitai of Nod ow/ ii (11,4 t Wet,: Itit(04NoMriiiIP4.1 /1),( ember 1971

7a9 (64 ) -. State of theorld-1984 Tah le 4-6. Effect of Topsoil Loss on Wheat Yields Yield Keductoon Per Location [nth of Topsoil Lost Soil Description thushels/acre) (percent) f Akron. Colorado 0 5 2.0 Weld silt loam Geary Como. Kam Js 1.3 6 2 (not at adable) Manhatm, Kansas 11 4.3 Smolati silty clay loam Columbus. Ohio 13 5.3 Cropped soil Oregon i.0 2.2 Deep soil Oregon 2.5 5.8 Thin soil Palouse Area. Washington I 0 6.9 (not available) Mn O in I s % AIM'S reports lite(' in I eon Liles. - Postible Elk( is 01 wind Erroon on Soil Pi-odium. lit." Mono! of .Soil awl Wain Comerraitont, Noserober/Detembet 1975, t Conducted by an interdisciplinary team but on the average the severely eroded of three sc lent ists, this analysis assumed soils required 38 percent more fuel for that sod erosion would continue at re- tillage than the slightly eroded soils. ( ent rates. The researchers classified the Soil erosion would not only raise the deg; CC (PI erosion into thiee phases: soils costs of production by increasing the that arc slightly eroded, with no appre- amount of fertilizer and fuel used, it ciable mixing of subsoil and topsoil in would also reduce yields. For corn, a the ploc layer; those that are moderately shift from slight to inoderate erosion eroded. with some mixing of subsoil into would reduce the average corn yield by the plow layer: and severely eroded 16 bushels per acre, while going from soils, where the topsoil is largely gone the moderate to severe category would and the Mow layer is pi edominantly sub- lower yields another 7 bushels per acre. soil. (See Table 4 -8.) Although the soybean In 1974. the base year. 2.1 million of yield decline was much smaller. it was the district's 3.5 million acres of crop- proportionate, since soybean yields are land fell mm one of the three erosion roughly one-third those of corn. t, phases, with the largest acreage being in Although there are little reliable data the moderately eroded category. Assum- ,)ti the effect of soil erosion on land pro- ing a continuation of the same rate of Table 4-7. Increase in Fertilizer Needs erosion, this would also be true for the for Corn as Soil Erodes, Southern Iowa year 2000. But by 2020. the researchers predicted, the largest share would be Change in in the severely eroded category. As Erosion soils prowess from the moderately to Phase Nitrogen Phosphate Potash severely eroded category. the amount (pounds per acre) of nitrogen. phosphorus, and potash Slight to needed to grow corn increases by 38 !) Moderate 10 6 pounds peracre.(See Table4-7.) Closely paralleling this would be an in- Moderate to Severe 30 1 crease in fuel requirements for tillage. 7 writer: Faill Kosenberrs. Russell Knutson. and As erosion proceeds. soils becomc.more Eat y Flamm "Fredming the Effects of Sod De. compact and difficult to till. The actual pinion From Erosion." Puma of Sot' and Water fuel increase ..cried widely by soil type, Cower-mason. miiviiior 1980,

Su Geom./vim; Sods (6gl Table 4-8. Reduction in Yields of Key inns m.s also reduce itngattott. electn- Crops as Soil Erodes, Southern Iowa tal genet:num. and the nasigabdity of ater way s. Ch Mtge Reduction in Yield Per Acii The increase in the amount of me Erosion pled land in the world went hand in Phase tool Sosheans Oats hand with efforts to raise food supplies (bushels) during the third quarter of this century. Might to Often the centei piece of national devel- Moderate 16 opment strategies thioughout the Thud. Moderate World, multipurpose darns represented toSwore 7 3 4 enormous investments and an important wvio.tP.otil Rowoobettl. Rime II Knots and part of the capital stock of new nations. 1,40 "Ptedo mg the Eilett% of Sod th 'typical of these was the Mangla Reser- pletton Rom Erosion,- prima/ of Soil and r Wet voir in Pakistan. The designers of the Controrafton. %a% /June 19140 reservoir projected a hie expectancy for the dam of-at least a century. What they dot traits 101 most «attunes. some in- did not reckon on was the effect of sights um) the relationship can be mounting population pressure on the doused hom these U.S. studies. Given watershed feeding thZ4-.reservoir. A com- the «insolent s 4 If the dec line in produc. hination of the axe and the plow. Ns land- twits across a wide iang of soil types hungry peasants push up the hillsides. is and (reps, it would not be unreasonable leading to a late of siltation that will to assume that .1 similar relationship he- probably fill the reservoir with silt at tu cell sod erosion and land productivity least 28 years earlier than projected. exists m other countries, for the basic (See Table 4-9.) One recent estimate agronomic relationships arc' the same. predicts it will be filled within half a cen- indec d. research on West African soils tury." shows land productisuy there to he even In the Philippines. scores of hydro- more sensitive to topsoil loss than in electric and irrigation reservoirs have North Amerira. "tlw loss of 3.9 inches of been constructed many of them with as- topsoil in West Africa cut corn yields by sistance from international development 52 percent. Yields of cow peas, a legumi- agencies. Here, as in Pakistan. the com- nous crop. were reduced by 38 percent. bination of watershed deforestation and This marked decline may attest to the steep slopes being cleared for cultivation lragilits of tropical soils.27 is Yielding record siltat ion rates. A report of the Agency for International De- velopment on the prospects for the Am-, buklao Dam notes that "the cutting of timher and the subsequent loss of water EROSION'S 1NI)IRECT COSTS retention capacity of land surrounding the reservoir has resulted in massive silt- When farmers lose topsoil they pay for it ing of the reservoir. reducing its useful in reduced coil fertility, hut .unlortu- life from 60 to 32 years."29 muck thet oos of erosion are not One reason, for the excessively rapid ottlined to the tam alone. As soil is car- siltation rates is that multipurpose dams ried front the farm by itinoli it may end are designed by engineers who some- up in local streams; rivers. canals, or in-i- times fail to recognize the impound- gation and hydroelectric reservoirs. The ments they build as part of a watershed, loss of topsoil that reduces land which often drains an area of several 4

1461 State of the World 981 Table 4-9. Siltation Rates in Selected Reservoirs Annual . Time t Siltation To Fill Comm Reset-ow hale With Silt

(metric tons) (years) Egypt A.wan high Dam 139.000,000 100 Pakistan Mang la 3,700.000 75 Philippines Amboklao 5.800 32 Tait/alma Matumbulo 19,800 30 Tanzania Kisongo 3.400 15 use itt t S ttEl-Swatf and EV Dangled. -Rainfall El OSUMI in tilt.! Trup1(3. A State of the An." to Anntitan Sot len of Agrottettot. brit f.Penrob and Comm-yahoo An Mr 7ropso.1 (Madison. Wm.. 1982)-

thousand square miles. The Anchicaya reservoirs of our major and medium irri- Dam in Colombia is a classic exam*. gation and multipurpose projects on Engineet . expresed little concerti with which the community has invested over the siltation problem, e%en though when 100 billion rupees during the last three 8 the pioje< t began farmers were already decades is a particularly serious matter." iading the uppet readies of the water- He notes that siltation rates are now shed that Iced) the dam. Within two commonly several times as high as the (*Als of ihr.tompletion. the dam had A- rate that was assumed when the projects rea& lost a quartet of its storage capac were designed. (See Table 4 -10,) yohra ity because of sillation.30 observes that not only is the life expect- In India. the indirect costs of water- ancy of these projects being severely re- eroded soil ..re summed up "sell by B. B. duced, but "in most cases there will be Volira, Chairman of the National Com- no altertiativt sites for dams once the mittee On Etronmental Planning. He existing ones are rendered useless." A obsert es that the -pi maim e siltation 01 dam site is often unique. Once lost, it gin 500,000 odd ponds and of the 487 cannot be replaced. For India. what is at Table 4-10. India: Siltation Rates in Selected Reservoirs Ratio of Observed to Reset sou Assumed Rate ()1ined Rate Assumed Erosion (in acre-feet) Bliakai 23.000 33.475 1.46 NIanlion 684 5.980 8.74 Matorakshi 538 2,000 3.72 Nuant Sugar 530 8,725 16.46 Pam het 1.982 9,583 4.81 Raitiganvot 1.089 4.366 4.01 rintgalihadra 9,796 41,058 4.19 (lap 7.448 21.758 2.92 sot ma Adapted from S A Eh-Swat and 1. W Dangler.. 'Rainfall Erosion in the Tropics. A State of the Art." in Amen( an Sotto% of Agromum. Jai b000n and Conorynnon at Mr Traps (Madison. Vow )982). .ind t.etiile for Silent e and 1.ton-outflow. 1 Iv Stair of Atha , AIIIIIMATIVIII 1982 (New Della 1982). c Conserving Soils (67) stake, according to Vohs al. "is die loss of this major artery connecting U.S. farms Ite irreplaceable potentialfor imga- with world markets is to continue to (IOW for electricity and for flood control function. that these storages represent."sl Ile hatif countries with soil-silting disasters goes on and on. The 'frames change but the conditions are common Whether m Nigeria. Indonesia, Pakistan, THE ECONOMICS OF or Mexico. the same basic principles of soil physics are at work. When soil on CONSERVING SOIL sloping land is fat need improperly, k be- Recent U.S. studies have rather consis- g;is to move under the impact if rain tently concluded that soil erosion con- and ends tip m pia( es whei e it usually trol is often not economical for farmers. does more harm Alan good. based on strictly dollars-and-cents criteria. The study of southern Iowa soils r- ferred to earlier showed that the short- Soil once used in the Midwest to term cost to farmers of reducing soil grow corn now clogs the Missis- erosion to a level that would not reduce sippi waterways. inherent productivity would be three times as great as the benefits. Narrow profit margins. such as those 'the third major indirect cost of soil confronting U,S. farmers during the erosion is the loss of navigability. Per- early eighties, might well met.,that if haps the most dramatic case* occurs in farmers were to inxest in appropriate die Panama Canal. "Ilie combination of conservation measures their profit mar- deforestation and the phwing of steeply gins would disappear entirely, forcing -doping rand in the '.at -shed area by them to operate at a deficit. They would landless campesinos is leading to an un- then face the prospect of bankruptcy in precednted siJtation of the lakes that the near future. 'Alternatively. they could make up part of the Canal. If the trends continue to follow existing agricultural of the late seventies and early eighties practices and avoid nearterm bank- continue, the capack of the Panama ruptcy. but face the prospect of declin- roy seal to handle shipping will he greatly ing productivity over the long term and rechic oil by die end of tlw century. forc- the eveninal ahandoinnent of land, if not ing; many ocean-going freighters that by this generation then by the next. In have relied on its 10,000 mile shortcut to the absence of a government.;) cost -soar- make the trip.via Cal e Horn.32 ing program similar to those used sc Within die United States, soil once effectively in the past, a farmer's only -," used in dw Midwest to grow corn now choice is whether to go out\ of business clogs the Mississirpi waterways. One of sooneror later. the largest items in the budget of the The economics of irosion control in Army tarps of Engineers is the dredg- the United States has recently become ing of inland waterways. particularly in more attractive With the adoption of new the lower Mississippi River. Vast quanti- mirinium-tillage "ractices. In traditional ties of soil reach the Golf of Mexico to tillage the moldboard plow, the prinCi- become ocean sediment, but substantial pal farm implement, was used to turn amounts are deposited on the way, mak- over all the soil in seedtied preparation. ing larg -scale dredging imperative if With minimum tillage the land is .

e (a t Siam tltrWorld-1981 plond n1 dn. ti admond wa Ci op 1 e.1- Table 4-11. Unted States: Conservation dues are left on the .itrlaYe and reed. ate Tillage, 1972-83 chilled due( tl% into the unplowed land. At eh in %nit herb'( ides pro% tchlig the need enn- Share 01 Comenation Ilamested ui of that niec bald( al4 IIII:1411ill in ei- 1e.te li !age Cloplandt ott.1% did Ihelk.111011)1111%(II he'bitide. enabled minium' tillage in the ante (million at cc.) (percent) %41V.11)411 the Intl 0(1111 11011 111 ( heal) 11172 29 7 10.0 al fertiluei ',emitted lamer. to M.- 1973 43 9 13.7 pen.e null clop rotation containing 1974 6:4 1-1 legume.. :Owe commotth, howvel.ill 1975 5/i 16.7 imminum 1111.-ige nation .trip of land tie tolled %%hew the coin. .o% bean.. of 1976 59 o 17.6 othi. c lop. ale planted. ie:o mg the 1977 70 I) 4).0.2 .pac between the row. undisturbed. 1978 74 8 `22.2 to «veer%e Wel co.t."011.ciott.U.S 1979 852 24 6 !at incl.net e ahead% experimenting 1980 88 5 25.1 ..Mott. I 'Milled 1111.tg 1/1 at HIT% 1981 9.0 27.5 I Ile C.1111 e1('Ill 1982 111 9 31.22 1973 1(1)101w) dn. change. the imita- 14183 125.8 3.1 52 tion. twine rills. de.eloptin inIII'in 14,1h.lieo1 kineoeci itopl,m41. (III tamed h, it. ellc: t sort et o.ion. laud not uorialuatili.Hillside% aged li.ilesled and that tm bent} plowed and c lop t.tilite Tell On h Imp 1.0(4lnuuiau c, (ht Cun.rnetuiti the .tillal e. 'oil 1. plow( ted Itemnn. 1 illagt (Ad, put, the 1983 !wow A ' and tuuofl 1.nine h le... 1 he re.ult is that 21 pc.i en' sari sit I. Ad- tuft to 4n. %Loch l982 end Mardi Immo. adopting minimumtill or no-1111 1983, WorIaluat; Ii Intutuie pia'e. to 4onme fuel ha% e rued that ilie%..ire also comerving their Dpne the encomaging" increase in sod ludn idnal farm(r doing theiroats the use of minimum tillage. there islittle «).t.lh..nefit (all Illation. muld neigh the information to done on its impact on -11))011.111( e ol both ettergl and soil saying. in &tiding whether to adopt the Scvereleroding land. While noting the enecnraging spread of reduced tillare nestpia( II( farming practices. Robert Gray of the Not all and not all .ituations lend thntke. to minimum tillage ".till American lest inland l'rust observes that in' lea."... .oil moraine and .1. .vs .oil (Am mmimum-till and no-till practices should be forsworn on the most severely to tripe r` ( the .pring.. In areas ittC11 a the not them corn belt. the short tickling land, which should not he in gion te.itict thetdap- pi (Auction at all." Preliminary observa- ttott of minimum tollage, Still. the gron oh tions indicate that minimum tillage is in ludo( etl 41( Icage in the United being adopted by the more progressive. bc ietnatkabl %teach.III- innovative farmers and that all too often ang (t% %eat .nice data one( win these ate not the ones on marginal hypo.Ill1972. In that %eat..ilearb 30 lands, which are eroding most severely. trillion an le.t ought% one-tenth of the Nonetheless. the m et

84 1111..Mk

t Ittestr.. x, Scilik i 69 i

the PIM ili V 1 1101 %Ith'1%. iiNed III 01111[ not .1114.1 the p;%%sical appc al .nu e 01 the pal l of (11( %%Of Id. duitigh &de ale 04 land ill lilt shim 4 'nu, not does it sluoc casion.11 [derelict to itFot example. up a: an nuntediatel% ineasin able 14w. 111 die 14,0 So% lelscientists cited earhei. viodin ton% Go.en the °di la< tor. &n- who iepot ted on en% nointiental pond - itwit< mg land %dues. such as inflation UM' and awn 'dune. noted that-4 and the spctilainc natute Of msest- method in which the soil Loci is not mem. the Old is Of sod toN10ii 011 1111(1 tinned, in die ticattnelit of the sod 11.1. .alma. ale simph now% hiltle in die hol 1 been de% eloped {URI lit 'Welt % Biel% Cli Cult i 0Odin eelin Kochi( non in Kataldistan. Intel et lates also and i the e( 0110111- the Alto. in the t cal. in the Lowei kt01 el 01011 40111101I Ile highei inter- Volga and °diet iegum I he% also ill- est 141(5 di e. the les...Holm toe be( mile di( 44441 that the pc4 tallied I.0 in equip- unestmems niilwsoil consd%ation ment nee(' Iloi minimum tillageis let [inutile.. sm 11 as id[.0 that pa% beingmanufactured no dieScold All cod the long id in Indeed. inkiest I 111(111 15 hues haw been so high in the United Some °loci % et.i 61111111,11 et01011 Slates ill (lie e411 1% elgThie 111,11 farmeis <0111101 l 11,1111(111m l% uneconomical in haw stmpl% been 1111.11>le 10 c0i1sidel the t 'lilted States because of the untram- .el 1011N1% 1110N11111 (4111etliN 111.11fill.(' a meled intorno of pi oda. But .m11 Indic a- fono m 'pa% bat I.. lion are that produc boil quotas, Is used in the Stole( Union foi example. ale .11 least as deittictne of sods arilte profit motive:ilde' 110 Scoiet i.ieni. farm manageis ale fudged not lo how elfec- THE GOVERNMENTAL Rol.) Coeh the% contiol soil erosion but l; Althongh 111et lunge, ui aginultmal how iic4 efull% the%fill quofaIn practices needed 10 ( 11P(rext essne soil tVesteidn commies. lainlownerchip. pai- ei osion,i an usuall% be implemented old% lictilar.. within a tannk. bongs %%tilt ii a. F IA farmer. &cuh es. thei (ai e so. eral c email Neil's( of stew al dchip--altliongh reasona wl bringing mount undo This 0111,1011NI k All be coo widen to et 0- contiol iequires g Oetililleill111%01%e- nomic forces. Such a &i d% sense of 111e111.I 0 begin with. main tarins can- stelsaidship c es not exist mo the So% iel not e.d% &tontine %%hobo their eo- t 'mon. sion t exceoe. Measuring the gradual loss of soil 1 opus es scientific technique. al. I egaipment: &Amitting whltei it Farmers adopting minimum-till or I' est esq% e retina es ilif cm 111.111011 011 tol no-till practices to conserve fuel (Tanta io els lot die pal iwidar ooplaPd have discovered that they are also in question. Another i eaon loi woo Innen( in- - conserving their soil: % oh ement is that mdoidual latmos111111 be unable to ;Ilford the consolation practices that are needed. It ma% make Otheis suggest that tliel 01101111(N 4)1 sense loi :.0( 1411. 10 111% es( in soil (onset - et <>mon c onti ol w ill' bet ome c leat when %midi den it I is not ptoltabl im the iropland %alio.. decline as soil eiosion.man idual far filet. Onh go% et ninon can reduce long-term land 1>roductom. t alculate the long to in aggi cgale c ost of nlortiniatek. the 1> 01 It>1>N011 (10d Noll emosioo jou the nation . a whole. t7or State o/ Me World-1981

nu 'tiding off-lai iiia osts sue It .is the silt. the et ()mum( consequences of erosion. dim ed capaut of irrigation iesciunts. A 1'iodtii tzs its index that calcUlates the hsdroelectric reNer% ours. or water tuns- ratio bCtween actual and potential crop Pert ,'steins. yields at various levels of soil loss has 1 he firststep fin gmei :intents in been applied to soils in the major crop; Whew. soil dosion is helloed producing regions of the United States to be a set ions threat is to assess tate- anti is being tested on soils in Nigeria. fulls the extent of soil loss Onls when Mexico. and India. But the usefulness of such an ms min s has been done can all such models will depend on the pains- the needed national cost-beneht calcula- taking collection of years of da'a on tions be made and the appropriate con- many soil types. an effort that has just servation programs desigueo. In India. begun.31 km example. winch has a ciopland base Mobdiiing public support for ade- comparable m to the United States quately funded sod conservation pro- and which has broad estunaks of grams will requut -xtensive public edu- .1)11 loss, it is estimated that a compre cation on the dimensions of the problem Ileums e witonwidt. soil insentors would and its many consequences. Scientific cost smile S.30 million ---a small price in- proof' of the necessity of soil conserva- deed (migrated with the contribution it non us not sufficient. Although soil scien- could make to more intelligentpofucy- tists can chart a national plan of action in detail, as they have in the United States. making. then cannot call forth the political sup- Most governments also need betterni- port needed to fund and administer such Imn'ut.utuon oil the relationship betwera a plan. At thus point, national political soil erosion and laud productisitthan leaders must become involved. th, now lime. The National Soil Ero Perhaps one of the best examples of sionSoil Product's itsReseank Plan - such involvement occurred in the United ning Committee in the United States *ate,. during the thirties when Franklin notes that "such experiments arc cosily D. Roosevelt president and Flency and tune consuming. Yeats of data ate Wallace was svcretar of agriculture. De- needed to es aluate the did is of the gen- spite the fact that the country was in the eral!s slow piocess.'w midst of per haps the worst economic crisis in its history. Roosevelt and Wallace convimed the U.S. Congress to fund In some countries, the expendi- within the Department of Agriculture a tures required simply to stabilize new agencythe Soil Conservatior soils dwarf the total appropriations sicetha would have the responsibu- for agriculture. ny for administering a comprehensive soil conservation program. Roosevelt proudly took credit for the planting of tree shelter belts in the Great Plains.38 "1 he National Research Committee of The ingredient m 'sing from unsuc- the U.S. Sod COIISC1141011 Sersice calls cessful responses to the growing menace milk on the erosion/pi odoctisitrela- of soil erosion is political will grounded tionship its top priontv. A theoretical in awareness. Over the past gradation. modyl called the Erosion-liroductisit scores of countries haw become food- Impac t Calculatoi, deseloped b% the De- deficit but few have linked the shortages partment of Agriculture. is designed to with the depletion of their soil by ero- esalnate both the plissical process and sion. In mans countries people know

86 Conwilltig Soil% 17i I that food In t, es airi rang, bin most THE (iiA)'3AL BALANCE don.; ./101,s (pine 551I%, An under standing that lost soil Ilte.IIIS towel inherent pici SIIEFI' dm mils. :shit h III nun means costlier I he long-term so( ial threat posed IA un- food. Is needed to tin 'thaw a national columned soil erosion raises profound sod comets anon ethic cpwtion of Intel geneunottal (minks. II Iii mans welkin/ottani% linI sot woes out genetation petsists in mining the whet e moo people ate dine' ate and Use soils so that w( Ma% eat. main of out .11 ifI SUbsIsteill e le%O. .1 lack of public :metes( III soil iousenation 11,:s tithe/ children and their 4 hildten ma% go him- tools, Farmers in mans 1 bird World il- grs as a tesult. Agin ultmal econminst lages (ail it lister hide con( eill about the Llovd K. last het of the l'nnersit of Ne- flume when tfeir immediate sin sisal is lnaska obserses that the (plains of out in question.IiiIncha. tepott s B B diet lit the tonsil. sill be "submit:16;11h Vohra. "an infOrmed publw opinion can- lime' and the costs dramatically higher title management of our land and water not , , be wished into existence (net night A }pea' deal of painstaking and tcsources Is not impros ed." He notes patient shot k will lease to be done to SV Pe further that "we must cease to behave as OM the bar kb tg 14 IgItOriill«'. Met ila and if there were no tomorrow. or tomorrow c omplac en( s "11 will be bleak indeed for those who must In much of the %sorbd Codas, olds due spend their lives there."41 willingness of national goseitiment to Perhaps even more troubling than the slime the (OSPs of the needed measures current net loss of an estimated 23 bit- retracing.contourfat ening,NiiIi; hot cons of topoil from the aorld's i rOpplolg.«h etcropping,rotating cropland each ear is the likelihood that cropsfallowing. and planting shelter the process is accelerating as cultivation beltswill induce farmers to fight soil is mended into eve- more marginal co orlon. One Wm Id Batik official oft- areas. In a world where 79 million peo- set ses that ifall the Bank's capital re- ple are being added c.ali sear and where sottices of $9 billion pet %CAI' were de- the great majority of the earth's inhabi- sated to soil consersation,itwould tants want to imp ade their diets. the de- (o'er only a small Ira: lion of the land mand for food continues to climb. push- Alec led Its PrOMOtt an lit some countries. ing farmers onto more teepls sloping the expenditures tecpured siniph to slit- lands. Inhie soils dwarf the tout applopna- Soil el osiou is a 'Ansi( al in (tress but it ;ions hot agt 'culotte. has numerous ecommin consequen«'s %Val= the socialist economies. %hoe for prices. product's ny. income, and ex- landisplIblifh OWow(' and gas .1)- ternaldebt.Laborproductivit: is mems ale duet thisponsible fin the affected m that as soils are depleted qualits of land management, ilwu e is a .through erosion it becomes more diffi- need lot the tiding elites to be edu- cult to raise the ()mini. of that substan- cated about basic agi twoms. t'illess na- tial slime of the world labor force that tional political !cadets locrerstand that works on the eroding land. lit largel a 'MIMI long..eint seciitios depends agrarian societies dm dem 'oration of on lame< inig its implant!,itwill be the resoin cc. base makes n mole chili( tilt difficult to gel the necessais commit- io 'As(' income pet pei son. hit diet. as ment of leadership time and the budge- growth in food output slows. so does ta.s lesources to suppoit an elle: use merallet °noun( outr it.liilai gels «itisers anon pi ow am. 1111.11. lowincome societies with timid

.. 87 172)r - Stair of the World-1984 population growth this can translate nito has e a ssmple-minded sales quota. '42 dm hem% pet capita no Din, as at At each The economic and political pressures has for .1 dozen (Asir es an Africa. to produce more food in the short rim. Oser the longer term, world agricul- with little regard for long-term onse- tut al uade patterns and the mterna- quences, has c permeated the world food nowt debt stint nue will also be altered economs. For Third World countries, .'.s sods ate depleted. (mimics are elle( us e soil comers ation initialises are lotted to tuition food to satish nen pat tieularls&flit-tilt:complicated by emeninal food needs. Stites of Iinnurses fragmented landholdings. The lack of ,i in the I bird Weald .Ind LISICTil Europe technologic all% sophisticated farm pop- laidtheirinternational indebtedness ulation makes the implementation of being,Iggiasatedfurther bs their comers ation tillage a difficult undertak- (11101m dependent e on unpin led food. ing. And Ow loss of topsoil w ill for ce an CIICT Although thew are no national suc- g% - for - topsail substitution as it increases cess stories. (her e are 4xc asumal signs of the need for let tilizet and fuel for tillage. hope. One is the trend toward reduced ()dim things being equal. the less top- tillage in the Uhued Stalest which was soil thew is. the mote energs is needed trigge -d bs farmers' desire to reduce iti produce our food. fuel consumption and operating costs. In eflotts to t misers e soil. the world is Although so far the farmers who are lat mg limit Is 1 he e ate no tiatonal suc- turning to reduced tillage are not usualls cesses. no models that mum t outlines the ones with the most sapidls eroding can emulate In this lespet t. soil «iser- sods. reduced tillage may become an %anon (outlasts shalph with oil (onset - econotnicall attrartivr first line of de- %mon. whole mores of countries ha« fense against erosion. particularly given compiled nupresms let olds III recent the high cost of (instructing terraces seats. Almost (-sets% here dependence and adopting long-term rotations and on petroleum is deducing as itis used other traditional approaches to soil con- mole eflu Rni% But thew is no parallel sers ation. Stabilizing soils that underpin with sod t onsenation. sn though soil the global eonoms will require wide- is .1 tat more essential resource. spread alterations in agricultural prac, I he tc Illumines fin arresting soil ero- tices. including a reevaluation of the role sion are well established. but halting ex- of the plow. The changes in agricultural t essne soul erosion is not a simple mai- practices required to arrest soil erosion tri een for an awn ultmally advanced will not come easily. scowls. U.S. faun plograms user die Another ent °waging development is seats has demonsitated that land can that the international scientific comm. be withheld from production for m0- ails is beginning to respond to the ero- ,1011111 reasons. What is needed now is sion airwi. as evidenced by several the imegi anon 01 militant! set-aside recent conferetuv and specially om- ph/ (es a ith sod comersation needs. As missimied studies. The International imin s atia:sst Kenneth Cook obserses. Congress of Soil Science, which met the Untied States has 'Ito polies to use in New Delhi in 1982. focused on the the good Lind In 1/1 Oct ence to the worst need for a world soils polies.' h earls Indeed. with testi« I to mail him, export 1983, the Soil Conservation Societs of demand to the needs of I...S.1W met s and America convened an international con- their land and to the needs of peoph and ference on soil erosion and conserva- iesources m the c_ 1 eseloping world, ise tion; sonic 145 scientists from around do not Ihoe responsible polies at all. We the wort i r esemed papers. And the

t. 88 ,

Loorterving Null%"u.

Amen( mu So( lets of "lig' (monis te«.101% lat is lot inlimis. .111 la, 1 e( old popula- published 1,10( eedings of an intetna- tion gifm(11 .1nd tamihini .mil elusion. (tonal ssinposnun on soil elusion in the and the absence of an efle( use response tiopu s. 43 to either. combine to ensure that the User the huge' ((Int. soli et oston %ill ( olument sill he at the lot efrom of dos lead to highet food pine,. hungei . (Ind unfolding global (list,. What r, at stake quite possibls pet sistent po( Aet, of fain- t, um meld% the dew:Walton of sod, but toe. Although the soil! emtioine 114, the deghulanon of 1de itself. sse.itheted a sesetalf old in( I ease in the 111,tornls. sod et osion ssa, a 10(41 pi 11 c-ol oil met the pal* decade. It is not plobletn. Indisulual ( is duanon, %hose' %sell equipped to tope %Ilk es en modest food s stem, sere widertnined in earlier *be, 10 the pine of food. tulle, de( hued in isolation. But in the In the Awn( e of sin cessful eflot is to nuegtated global e«nunns of the late mein the loss 01 topsoil. theSot 101elle( Is monied! (emu's. foodlike oil -1, a of et ((slob voll probabls lust be seen in global (ottunodits. 1 he ex( essne los, of Alin 4. itPthe fount 01.1ttile food ,111111- topsoil mis %here uhunatel Ale( is food age, and higliet mot Was tales. parts( tt- pt ii es es (Ts whore. k

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i 5

Protecting Forests SandraTostel

Sustaining the wood's forests presents .1% buy and too scat( e to gather for many of 111.1)01 globalchallenge.IVithe'er thai third of humanity who have no other gi eater demands fat fuels ood and wood source of cooking fuel.Floods and piodm is and lot land to feed `growing droughts that many believe are more se- populations, ['lesson.% 00 finest!, neatly , ere because of deforestation have cost es elm hoe are inneasmg. Inthe Imp- millions in lost crops. cattle. and human it dnspressure is most sisible in the lives. As never before,unmitigated ero- delinestanon Of al least 7.5 million bec- sionof the natural resource base is hav- tales of closed lorest and 318 million ing deal ly visible economic and social hectares of open woodland moth sear costs. ...7 an annual loss the si.... of Austria and Albania combined. At this rate, tropical forests will shrink In 10-15 percent by the year 201)0 In some temperate regions, where the ,THE FORCES BEHIND fin ested area.has been quite stable. an pollutants sinfi as sulfur dioxide. nitro- (... DEFORESTATION gen oxides. and heats mewls are threat- Most numbers describing the world's ening future forest growth and produc- forest resource base and its destruction inns. The ultimate extent and severity are estimates at best. Many countries of this li...1 in lemmas a large question. has e not yet fully catalogued their forest Vet existing circumstantial esidem e of resources and the quality of available inglinion-induced damage now tenders data ,.tries greatly. The most thorough continued Icy els al forest produltisitt study to date of tropical areas was comp- lughlsquestionable in importantre. leted in July 1981 *by the Food and Agri- gums. pai Initials cent sal Europe and culture Organization (FAO) of the eastern Ninth Amei U .1 United Nations) though compreten- Defoiesianon appears in be affecting ski: in scope, the report may be overly not only om natural sistems but our optimistic in light of FAO's obligation to e«momic am: social systems as well. a( cept official figures from national goy.. Fuchs ood is bewuung too expensise to ennui ms. figures that may not be wholly '. 1

90 e Ptak( Singtot rits t75 I atuthit Nonthle55. du moth, whit II tegenetAted burst. Shtubland5. which Mt lulled 1 Olt esp011tltil e nil if; 11 opt- Nu( All .uppolt egetanott no toile:- f ol «ninnies and thelet Itd Ilse Of sett than 5een mewl.. Mt' NO weirl de- elliie midget 5. goe. .1 bug wo toward graded. cutlet be( Aloe of .1 %et% .hors Clot unwitting the t tit trot .i.itti. of Hopi- follow period of et poor .fi «nub- to' lo.' t.fittit non.. that natural fotest It-gem:di is it - Combining FAO e.i ittiote. tot tt 4 PIM 41 moll% unpo.mble,T wpm. with I S Count 11 lot Eit% um- 1 bough f on% et 10n. of lout...timid are memol (built% figure. fto the i.t of the of t int tug e% el%. heir lot g -n ale f le.ii - woe le!%Kids.ttotigh pu lure of the mg of fore 15 takes plate !initial-11 in woad'. lotr.i., Wooded lands of all the trope .. At lewd some of the continu- (. m( About 4.89 billion het totes. ing (maner.%er row. of tropical 4111 area 11101 e 01.01 I r11)1V that HI Mips lost-datum ders from( onfusioh (See table-1.) 01 holtt_1151 oleo 15 met. 41 (I11010011 of lei Ws. FAO. OW 01 (I ".. d J.) (lasd 101 ("Nis. whet the the word includes t (mildw ( !coring 01 bode 11011 nee f 1055 Its pretent5 5111)- 10;et for some ohrna ti. of the 5rounol};lowish of gto.5. Nearl holf land. Not included in their estimates Are thew .ue.s. die In the i mint.. with South other. less ( (mildew forms of alteration d and Centro' Amen( Aof tainting lot (from selecte logging. for example) one-fittattet f)1 the timed lore.ts world- and the gradual degradation from prof - wide..ihoin 25 pttei u 01 die total fm- titre .tic h as i (pratd burning dud met - e.td oleo 1 open wootilatullie.is (II gta/mg. A«-ordnig to FAO. 7.5 million mixed f Ofesi and gto51And twilled In h( idle. Of t losed forest and 3.8 million the (:erratic) to 1 ;..a/11 And the wooded hf tare. of open woodlands arc being .ottitolt of 'Aft If o. "1.0re.t follow- t- cleared each Car. for an annual tropical leiIn Are.t. t leaved for ogrif ohm e atul dknotum rate of I 1.3 million hec- Inal WON slatges Of tegtowth. silt It Arco. tare.. Self test logging is thought to 111.1% Agouti 5uppott .0 tutu tol 01 noniron alter an additional 4.4 million hectares

Table 5-1. The Global Forest Resource Base

Fou e.1 Closed Opel) Fallow and Region 1tuesu 1Vocsil.oml SIB Aland e 1.01.11 limn Iisate.)

1o opt( Al .1 merit .1 67.l 217 316 14212 1 (opt( al Alt It a 217 186 609 1.31 ... es l'ropit al A51.1 305 31 109 445 North .1tairlit .1 170 I 176 646

bil ape 110 29 1 170 l'SSR 78r) 115 15.1 915 Pot ifn .urea 81) 105 / 5 190 r. 101.t1 2.676 1.159 1.055 .890 50114115 t .o swan . itol lloplo.11ii tzifill Iii 141$111.47111 1 11111.1) \.1111.11.1 Faced moil Agin ilium. I n g.onol.o won, bopkd i oorit Awo. /1I orlil P.111t1 34) IRIPItil19811. ( %WWII.% tot ten0.1 $$$$$ og sgolow Joy for earl. to mod-sntocs Ippon town II on boil onmental (.bo.olio Joni ( S Drihotooneno .4 Some. b... mo4iat Ziont ft,poit to dr, Prewlent %ohmic 1 i.1.1ntigton. D C:t' S Gino inherit Polliwog ()flue. 19801 Inuits'. of We clolletno geoigtmolio tooloosiong. tied on ol.r moo soothe.. thy low-so Il'urlItIC lit ..r.epai 4 MIMI ti.% .01 C 1,111114«i. 1611101 1111% 10111111 not wrath 41411 the orgoon.4 tout.

91 176, Nate ofthe Wodt1-198.1 per yai 1)iNoini.in Wet.. at M ItII- lug incomes. the former driving the need Lint on tropical forests and hnniei resi- for agi is uluiral land and wood for en- dent of East Africa. estimates that f on- ergy and shelter. and the latter for forest vet sion of-all typesfrom deforestation products to meet consumer demands. to the lessei hums of de giadationis on With few exceptions: populations in the ender of 20-24 million hemlines pet tropical countries are growing between yea'. %els'. most iment es11111Ile Of 2 and 3.5 percent per year. Conversion (Jelin estal ion of dosed ((nests is 0.`._ trill- of Ii>resdand to cropland is by far the im hectares pi Veal. slightly greater leading direct cause of tropical de(nes- than FAO's figure.' ninon. Such conversion is often neces- Act oi ding to the F,'() study. (ter half sary: Agriculture is clearly the most the 7.5 million het laws 01 dosed 10resi beneficial use of land in some areas. The t !caeca atinnally at e in South and (*.m- tragedy in the tropics is that increasingly oil! America. (See !able 5-2.) Emests thy finest is cleared by landless peasants are dininushing at an equal taw in all ts el h no alternative for a sustainable We- duet. (topical regions of the world at st% le and it is happening either on land abow 0,61 pet( CM per year. 01 the open too infertile to sustain crop production w oodlaiedc. cleared each sear. (i0 percent over the long term or in a manner that ofthe dkiestation Isoccurringin prematurely depletes the land's produc- :Urea. with its large expanses of north- tive capacn y . On %.1Valltia%,1,10%1 01 the te51 takes place Shifting cultivation, which for centu- Iii nopu.il Ameiica On ay mtge. 1158 iies provided a sustainable agricultural ',m em of .111 open woodlands ate lost system. has Woken down with the popu- each teat. If these deforestation late% lation buildup of recent times. Tradi- tionally.lamer, would clear some for- l out mile. tropocal forests and woodlands est. grow croii.. until the soil became too will sin ink by an additional 10 percent bY deficient of nutrients, and then clear a Immo is end. new .nea. returning to the original plot 1VheieyiItis mewling. deltnesta- perhaps 20 years later. By then the land olon is .i clues manifestation of pressure had lain fallow long enough to regain its placed on the natural resource base by lertilitt and could again support crops. the et anomie and social systems it sop- But in many situations population densi- pons. Fundamentally. these pressures ties no longer allow for the 10-20 hec- at e rooted in using populations and i is- tare, of land per person needed to sus- Table 5-2. Projected Annual tain this farming system:1 The land is Deforestation in Tropical Regions. en eiused. additional forests are cleared 1981-85 on soils that cannot sustain crops. and destruction spreads. (:fused Open 1:4 The new pattern of shifting cultivation Ke)oon 1.0t esi Woodlands is destroying fbrests and degrading soils in all tropical regions. The FM) study (million he( Imes) attributes 45 percent of all forest clear- i rola( al Amen( .1 1 34 ' '27 ings to shifting agriculture, though the I tops( 4 .th n a 1 :1 :1 2 r problem varies by region. being the prin- I ei)pi4.il .%.i.1 I8 :3 019 cipal cause of 70 percent of the dosed I olai 7 50 3.81 forest clearings in Africa. nearly 50 per- sot to 11 lletdAnon. food and %got uhon 0) - cent in tropical Asia, and 35 percent in gaill1d0001, hoptral fewi 10.00,0Igiet.sti% Paper tropical America. Areas where defor- 0! 3 clients 19821 i estation is most pronounced are predict-

1 e3 92 Niter hug ta"i% 1 77 ) Al% those while population delositis 10 allc% tate population sttSSs s01114 (S. are high Nine «ninnies of %lest At tit a. «num les, most noitibl%in Asia. ale %%h the population dnsin is dit dealing forested land to e tit otnAge peo- time that Of ant iiiluAlm an legion. ple to migrate to less populatedleroto- at A 0111t1 lot half the tot est losses in I i op- ries.I be Indonesian Cove' innerhas t ,t1 ,Ifiit,t Closed Imes!. in the iegnm been Inoung families from Bah and Java ale diminishing at an annual i ate of be to the less populated islands of 1011filan- osen I and ti pelt rm. and the 1.1( ) re. Mu and StItlinfin. Fotest on these is- putt (1.tinis that the pilitziessnc disap-.. lands ale inindlt bring (le.ned MO 1 (6- pv.11.1114 e of the l thenal flit 4-1 -Is aft 16.1(1 pLit 16(1 tt nil ago( ul. tie of relatneb low .1 Lit I In «nil hen, the (..mief I toti-CAt- ptotim thin, Sunda& . planned «dom- golese finest.. itt Citti.il .11t1t.t, where /anon in NUL% ma is causing «an ersion the population densiit in loiested ,tie,e. of lowland forests to plantations of palm P. less than a tenth that iii %lest .Ifin.i. oil and itiblici ,11) ; air inn %co ( not alb thicatened 1..oses No( kale) ( MIMI t1011 between thew attlage 0.2 pet «lit per %eat.% dloretation and the demands of afflu- nt sot tette.. can be found than in the comrsion of tropical forest to grazing Conversion of forestland to cropland in Centwal America and Brazil. land is by far the leading direct whew cattl -raising offers export earnings thatoulel help redtu- external cause of tropical deforestation. debt. Braid kJ. In L11 the greatest area of trop1( al moist lorest m the world: 280-300 million hectares. triple the hxamples .11)00(1 A it le (1 est'. sue With- aminii in either Zaire .or Indonesia. 10g 10 siof mig '1.'111%411nm, A stud% In the 0% et -10 !tenon of that lies in die ma- 'Indian Institut of Soent (*.Muted ion Basm, where population pressures that met kW the finest hr.se:. in 110M ate Mal MIIIIIMIL The nation's stagger- between 1951 and 1976 were hom ton- _mg!) high foreign debt in recent years. t ei stow. to .tgl it tilfinal Lind. where pfl- now about $90 billion. explains win Bra- timid% die Lindley. woe "encroaching /Mans pots t leW the rich Ainaion forests ; on good finest. to bring the land under ac an asset that can no longer be left cultnation.-6 InI flatland, 30 seals of -unused... Between 1966 and1978. elfin' In the Ronal Foicst Setae e failed sont eight million hectares of Amazon to stop the cm, mu Innen' of shilling lot ?st be( ame cattle tanches." (tiltnatois nu() nottlion lowest.. whew 1.1 Cetin al Amerly giving land more lotest destitution has been on the ot - than doubled between 1961 and 1978. der of 100.000 he( tales pet teat .7 Some while wooded land diminished by 39 50.000landlesspeasant famtliin pet(n. (See Table 5-3.) U.S. demand. I encitiela Ihn been ( leal :lig 85,000 lot heel has fostered considerable con- Iv:times of lotest sae i %cal l` Pei haps % erS1011 of 101 C1.1 to pasture. A little user the most sti dung sue of shifting ago( ul- two decades .tgo. the United states int- tin e' ell( is n m the Pei in tan Andes. as poi teed ooh 2.000 tons of beef. By 1978 landless In mei. push lilt diet toward the beef unpin is bad risen to 100.00 ton Amami plane..InthePhilippines. .111d. althotigh Milt a portion of these Nepal. northeasicin India. and man% tame hom Central Amei i( a. six out of otht at seas. Mt t .ving AJlt if% tifland V. the esen ( (ninnies ,there were sending lotting sinking ( tiltnaiots up forested as tutu h as 85 to 9() percent of their total hillsides" beef exports to the ('niti.1(1 States."

33 (781 Stole of Mr World I984 Table 5-3. Central America: Conversion of Forests to GrazingLand, 1961-78 . Graintg Land 1.'g n est s and %V< ,o(11ands Couturt 1961 1978 Change 1961 1978 (:hange . (thousand het tgrs) (pre tent) (thousand het tat es) + (percent) Costa It it a 969 1.71;4 +82 2.848 1.930, 32 .1 Sal% ador 606 690 +14 230 - 0 100 Gtsaitnal.1 1.039 1.976 + 91) 8.400 4.400 48 110ndut ask 2.006 '2.370 +18 7.100 3.900. -45 Nicardget 1.710 2:820 +65 6.32 4.400 32 4.Panama 899 1.4'30 + 59 41.00 3.200 2 I out! 7.229 1 1.050 +5:3 29.110 17.830 39 sot ret.1Normal %en. " I he 11.nobutget Comet 11u% CentralArno tc.t'. Forests Bet ant North Arocria. 11.mthorgers." :baba°. VW X. No I. 198)

, Mut h of that beef feeds the growing estimated 38 million cubic meters of demands of U.S fast-food outlets. one of wood are converted annually to charcoal the few markets open to leaner beef for the steel industry-." A growing com- hom grass-fed tattle. Fast-food chains mercial market for fuelwood also creates tan °Hetlow .prn ed hamburgers by incentive for "entrepreneurial cutting." using beef wised by low.tost Jabot on Near Nagpur. in central India, where t on% et ted lorsiland in Central Amer- people arc permitted to collect dead ica. Few people are aware of the hull wood in forest reserves for their domes- consequences of each bite into a fast- tic use, trees are apparently being cut food burger, which Norman Myers has illegally and taken to the city for sale." aptly( ailed "the hamburger coirec- Myers has estimated that some 150 mil- tioo."" lion cubic meters of wood are cut for fuel Unlike forest coin ersions for agricul- from tropical closed forests each year. ture and grating land, fnelwood gather- The extent of the resulting degradation : , mg o, final peasants rarely resultsinan of woodlands is not known. In fuelwood- Intl nediate loss of a large block of closed short areas of Africa and Asia, however, forest. But the gradual degradation of people are having to turn to crop resi- open woodlands by fuelwood gatherers dues and cow dung for fue1.17 nim es entual4 produce a sirtual waste- The role of timher harvesting in tropi- land. With fuelwood gathering, as with cal deforestation is difficult to assess. shifting cultiation, it is primary 4' popu- FAO estimates that 210 million *tares lation pressure that has transformed a of closed forest have been logged so far pro tomb sustainabse practice into one and that 4.4 Million hectares of virgin that is gradually destroing the resource forest are opened for logging each year. base." Because of the diversity of tree species in For that one-third of humanity for tropicalforests,commercial loggers whom firewdbd is the primary sour& of generally cut very selectively, taking only cooking hid. demand will increase apace the most valuable species. Cutting in,,,, with population growth. Moreover, the hardwood forests is particutily selec- fuelwood and charcoal needs of au tive, with removals from a first cutting emerging industrial sector are begin- averaging 8-15 cubic. meters per hect- ning to compete with those of fuelwood are. In Southeast Asian forests, where gatherers. In the southeast of Brazil, an there is an unusually high density of

. , 94 t, 1'retteartigFotests i 791

l muffle-m.111%%Arabic spec les.haid- nation's lorests. showed damage in the wood remosals aseiage owl 30 cubic fall of 1982. Just one %ear later. follow- meters. pei hectare.ls But esen though .mg an extensive nationwide survey. mil% 5 pen ern of the flees On a gisen:damage has estimated to cover one- hectaiema% be i 111. the trees are so l lose thirdof WestGermany'sforests. togethi and «rimeoecl b% sines that Whereas 60 percent of the fir trees were logging can destios 30-60 pet 4 ent of the Alerted m Pate 1982. three-quarters of unwantedtrees " Nforetei. duce- them weie suffering the following %ear quat lei s of logged forests aie left un- Damage wits also %nable on four of es cry 'managed at lei the fist cutting. Thus ten spruce trees. which cmer roughly40 without et cimmin 'menthes or regula- percent of West Germansforestlarid.28 tions to em (image moieeflicient use 41nd better care for these loiests. large numbers of trees are destimed for a By 1990 as much as three million retain el% small amount of wood actually hectares of forests may be lost to sold acid rain if Poland proceeds with its present industrialization plans.

ACID RAIN: AN EMERGING In Czechoslovakia. 5:0.000 hectares reportedhare damaged,withtree THREAT deaths widespread in a mountainous for- Acid deposition. «mimonl% called acid ested park near the East German bor- 1 am. is the tom pen to sulfur and ni- dr.21 Another 500,001 hectares are trogen oxides thin are chemnall% nans- affected m Poland. Forest researchers I ormed m the atmosphere and fall 10 in Katowice. close tdIKrakow. say that eanli as at ids in lam. snow at log. or as fir trees are dead oz dying on nearly di %.414 td -feet ming pat tit les.Scientists 180.000 hectares and that spruce trees /lase amassedf OliSidelablee% Mem e in areas around Rybnik and Czesto- riser the past decade that these air pollu- chowa. also in the industrialized south- tants ma% athr set affect the ecosys- ei n region. are completely gone. Envi- tem. the% entN. Although documnta- ronmental scientists warn that by 1990 i10I1 of aculthing lakes in Scandma% ia. as much as three million hectares of for- (ean North Amok a. and Canada is ests ma% be lost if Poland proceeds with not new. esidente Is mounting of acid its present industrialization plans." deposition's se% ere threat to some of the In the United States. detailed docu- ... world's nurst %Area forests. Until re- mentation of systematic forest destruc% 4 end% the link to the health and Kochi( - non has come from research on Camels tnit% of 'mese, was laigel% spec. ulatne. !lump, a peak forested with red spruce and documentation ofsen potential and balsam firs in the Green Mountains t effects was 't(a)«.. Studies Of sick and of Vermont. There. after nearly two thing 'lees m Europe and eastern North decades of study and with the benefit of Am« it a. In owe% ei . Mc leading reseal( h- a, complete inventory of the tnountaitt's et. to pm lot Ili the, link with water segetation. researchers at the University confident e. of Vermont have found that half the 0%er 560.000 he Of forest in spruce trees have died since 1965. More- West Germans. mail 8 percent of the oser. seedling production, tree density, 95 ( 80 1 SlateofMr Wald-198.1 A and basal area !we also been nearly This dramatic change is attributed in halved.23 ' large part to the release of sulfur and Reports on the currentextentandse nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere by )erity of forest damage may belie the the burning of fossil fuels and the smelt tine magmtude of an impending prob- lug of ores. Since forest systems can usu- lem; The prow ess leading from slight to ally benefit from additional quantities of eXICI1SRe daniage appeal: s to unfold ra- nitrogen, sulfur compounds are gener- pidly: Widespread loss of sib er In trees ally considered to be the primary con- had occurred in West Germany within a ( ein. Tbe scientists studying West Ger- fewears after the first signs of damage. many's lowest% found that the needles° of And it it not always easy to recognise the trees in severely damaged forest areas S% tripwire,. Without carelid qbservation contained more sulfur than those in by a well - trained e% e, eat h signs of dam- other areas. Also, damage was greater age may be nerlooked. Memo% el, die on west facing mountain slopes. which pattern of symptoms. such as discolora- are exposed to more pollutants and acid tion and needle loss. may vary among" deposition.22 spe< res. In portions of Europe, sulfur dioxide scientific evidence of acid deposition's emissions from human actisities have link to thus massue forest destruction is doubled since 1950. Excluding the So- thusLIT 111«,sulusne. Indeed, needle viet Union (with estimated emissions of discoloringaridA thinning of tree over 25 million metric tons per year), crowns can be caused by many things: annualsulfurdioxide emissionsin host. drought, wind. attacks by nue( ts northern and central Europe now total on fungi. and even poor lowest manage- nearly 27 million metric tons. Six coun-

... ment practices. But none of these CAUSCS tries account for 80 percent of this total: alone seems to be sullu lent to explain the United Kingdom, East Germany. the PaliCiiIN or forest destruction ob- West Germany. France. CzechoslovaRia. sen ed. As11n of Vermont bota- and Poland. Sulfur dioxide emissions lust !When Vogelmann writes regarding from North Amenca are estimated at the massne spruce deaths on Camels nearly 29 million metric tons per year, !lump, "With many of t' :normal causes with over 80 percent from the United of tree mortality ruled out. suspicions States.28 ha% c turned to one ingredient of our en- Before the advent of air pollution con- % monition that has been introduced in trol strategies, most pollutants emitted the last thiit yearsac.id tain."26 to the atmosphere remained relatively In recent deo ades. the acidity of rain close to their source. Between 1956 and and snow has increased markedly in 1976, however, the average height of-the many locations. In widesprerid areas of stacksatfossil-fueledpower plants eastcin North Amcnca and northern nearly tripled, as higher stacks were seen arid o ential Europe the annual a erage as better dispersers of emissions from phi of preo ipitation .s now between 4 source areas. Pollutants thus began to and 4.5. For comparisod, the pH of un- travel farther before returning to the polluted rainfall is typically no lower earth's land and waters. Also, the longer than 5.6.: lightly acidic from interactions 'the sulfur dioxide was in the atmo- with natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. the more likely it was to be oxi- sphere. Rain and snow in many indus- dized to sulfuric acid.26 trial regions of the world are now 540 The precise mechanism by which acid times more acidic than would be ex- deposition may be damaging trees so expected in an unpolluted atmosph. re.26 tensively is not known. Hydrogen ion 96 Protecting Forests (81) concentration. the measure (1tidily ex- root systetn, a tree becomes less ahle to pressed aspH,affects interactions be- take up moisture and to protect itself tween the soil and living biomass of an front insect attacks and *oughts. The ecosystem in complex and varying ways. forests are also attacked from above by Soil structure and composition. vegeta- heavy metal and gaseous pollutants in- tion type, climate. and elevation arc only tercepted by tree crowns. From the pat- some of the natural determining varia- terns of tree damage he observed in Soil- bles. Yet scientists have uncovered some ing, Ulrich fears that every few years to common effects of increased acidity in every few decades a natural event will soils_ Among the most important is the occur that, because of the accumulated leaching of vital life-supporting nutri- air pollutants. will cause fatal tree dam- ents as the hydrogen ions react with soil age.31 materials and time buffering capacity of Laboratory research at the University the soil is depleted. Both scientific the- of Vermont has shed additional light on ory and observation suggest that re- these processes, providing evidence that duced quantities of nutrients such as cal- acid deposition and heavy metals act cium. magnesium. and potassium may synergistically in stunting the growth of be widespread in vulnerable soils after trees, mosses. bacteria, algae, and fungi. se eral decades or (-omit ics of exposure This research also shows that loss due to to acid deposition. In addition, several acid rain of mycorrhizae. fungi essential stmlies hoe suggested that o soils be- to the health of a forest system, may play come more acidic, aluminum. which is a role in overall forest destruction. Fur- normally harmlessly bound in soil con- ther. analysis of tree cores by these re- stituents, becomes soluble amid toxic.30 searchers lends credence to the link between acid rain and the mobilization of aluminum. The amount of aluminum Areas now witnessing the death of in the wood was relatively constant throughout time first half of the century their lakes may soon be confronted but began rising dramatically in some with dying forests. samples around 1950, about the time acid rain became more pronounced.32 Though fragmented and inconclusive, Dr. Bernhard Ulrich. a biochemist this evidence of acid deposition's effects who has studied damaged beech and on soils and forests can no longer be spruce forests in Soiling. West Germany, ignored. If Ulrich's description is accu- for nearly two decades. has documented rate, areas now witnessing the death of several phases in the acidification of for- their lakes may soon be confronted with est systems. During the early stages. nu- dying forests. His findings offer a grave trients such as nitrogen added to the soil warning: Waiting for declines in forest by acid deposition appear to increase growth as the sign of damage from add tree productivity and growth. Between rain ntay mean recognizing the problem 1967 and 1969, the beech and spruce in its advanced stages, perhaps when the trees he studied showed double the ex- damage is irreversible. pected growth rate. Yet during this pe- Although the amount of forest de- riod of increased growth, adds are build- struction that will be caused by acid ing up in the soil, eventually triggering deposition is a matter of speculation, the leaching of vital nutrients and rend- both scientific researchers and political ering aluminum soluble and toxic. When leaders are recognizing that the risks are the toxic aluminum begins to attack the great. Referring to the potential effects

97 (82) State of the World-1984 of acid ram on Canada's $20-billion 14- mine a more important and sustaining est industry, John A. Fraser. member of resource base. the Canadian Parliament, remarked in October 1982 that "the economic cost of doing nothing is staggering."" And in light of the large wood-volume declines on Vermont's Camels Hump since 1965 ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF and the 57 percent drop in maple seedlings and saplings. Hubert Vogelmanti DEFORESTATION echos this concern; "If such losses in Deforestation has thus far been fostered only a few years are representative of a mainly by pressures to grow crops to general decline in forest productivity, feed increasing populations. WI:ether the economic consequences for the lum- conversion is planned by governments ber industry will be staggering.''39 to relieve food shortages or results from One obvious remedy s to reduce landless peasants seeking to survive, emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides tropicalforeststypically have been to the atmosphere. Without waiting for more solid proof of add rain's link to viewed as an underused asset at best and forest destruction. the West Cerman an obstacle to development at worst. As Bundestag passed legislation in early forests dwindle, however, this view is bound to change. The growing scarcity 1983 aimed at reducing sulfur emissions by a third within ten years. Yet even if of forest products will increase the com- West Germany succeeds in meeting parative value of these forests and the these goals. the reduction of sulfur diox- products and services they provide. ide in its air will be much less, since Signs of scarcity typically take two forms: about half the emissions originate out- shortages and rising real prices. Ulti- side the country. West Germany is also mately, scarcity fosters a shift in the way attempting to mitigate the existing dam- a resource is valued, used, and managed. age by adding lime to soils in damaged Firewood scarcity offers the most visi- areas to counteract the acidity." ble and dramatic example of deforesta- No doubt this link to the world's for- tion's effects. In developing countries ests will heighten the international acid some three-fourths of the wood har- rain debate both within and between na- vested is used for fuel. These countries tions.Italso implies that continued both produce and consume 90 percent growth and productivity of some of the of the world's fuelwood; only one-tenth world's temperate forests can no ' ,nger of 1 percent is exported." Already, fuel- be tacitly assumed. Developed countries wood scarcity is taking a heavy toll on the with energy futures based on fossil fuels developing world's poor. With 90 per- may need to reexamine the wisdom of cent of some national populations rely- their strategies and weigh the costs of ing on firewood as their main fuel, nu- pollution control againstthese new merous local and regional scarcities risks. Moreover, large portions of Brazil, collectively bode a crisis of critical pro- southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, portions. and China have soils relatively suscepti- In many West African and Central ble to acidification.36 As nations in these American cities a typical family may regions establish ambitious industriali- spend one-quarter of its earnings on zation plans. in which fossil fuels typi- fuelwood and charcoal, a proportion cally figure strongly, they must consider comparable to what a family in an afflu- that the means to their ends may under- ent society might spend on housing.

98 Protecting Forests (83) Where wood is gathetedt Awe than of Abidjan jumped from $26 to nearly bought in a market. scarcities mean $250 per cubic meter.(' more time spent collecting wood for the These shortages are bound to worsen family. In some parts of India, a woman in the decades ahead. FAO projects that or child may need to spend two full days by the year 2000, the minimum fuel- gathering a family's weekly supply of wood needs of some 2.7 billion people wood." over hall the developing-world popula- Fuelwood scarcity has fostered a dra- tion projected for that yeareither will matic rise in fuelwood prices in recent not be met on a sustainable basis (a defi- years. Whereas the real price of fuel- cit situation) or will not be met at all (an woodthe price adjusted for inflation acute scarcity.). (See Table 5-4.) The sit- showed no increase between l963 and uation is already a dire one. In 1980, an 1978. it went up by over 25 percent be- estimated 112 million peoplehalf of tween 1978 and 1981. Since link of this them in tropical Atilt awere experienc- commodity enters international markets, ing acute scarcities of fnelwood. Nearly absolute prices and the tre.nds in specific 1.2 billion people-70 percent of them commies may vary considerably. In in tropical Asiawere meeting their Dacca, Bangladesh. the retail price for minimum fuelwood needs only by over- fuelwood was in some years twice that of cutting and depleting their forest re- the average world export price." In In- sources. In all cases. rural people are the dian towns, rising prices are Fast making hardest 11it.42 fuelwood purchases impossible fin- many Wood shortages in some areas are re- residents. Between 1971 and 1980., the ducing incomes and jobs. Basketweavers current-dollar retail price of fuelwood in relying on the bamboo stocks of Tamil Bombay more than tripled.40 Price in- Nadu, at the southern tip of the Indian creases in Africa ate equally telling. peninsula, reportedly now earn 25 per- Fuelwood retailing for less than U.S. $8 cent less than in the early seventies and per cubic meter in 1976 in the Central stiffer periodic bouts of unemployment African nation of Cameroon sold for because of insufficient bamboo supplies. over $44 itt 1981. Most extraordinary Stocks in the Western Ghats forests were was the situation in the Ivory Coast in once thought sufficient to keep local West Africa: Between 1976 and 1980 the paper mills supplied indefinitely. Yet retail price in the coastal commercial city bamboo shortages have forced the in- Table 5.4. Populations Whose Fuelwood Supplies Cannot Be Sustained, 1980, With Projections for 2000

1980 2000 Acute Acute Scamt Region Search }t Debt its or lkiicit (million) Tropical Africa 55 116 535 Tropical Asia 31 832 1,671 Latin America 26 201 512

Total 112 1,179 2.718 illucl%ood cortsumpilun is helot dim requ.m1 to meet stimulant, needs. ?Minimum fricNisoil needs are met, but mils h% oserruning and depleting wood resources souk(;. Vaned Nai,mic Food .isul Agruulturc Organtratum. hopiral Font Remoras. rumors raper 30 (Rome: 1982)

$9 84) Stato of the WorldI984 dustry to operate at 70 percent capacity, threatens the viability of the Panama compared with 90 percent in 1970. and Canal. has worsened both floods and some of the bamboo now comes from droughts and rendered water supplies northeast India and the Himalayas. The less reliable 46 plywood, match, and polyfiber indus- The full effects of deforestation on na- tries in India are also facing shortages.43 tional and international market economies are difficult to predict. With the ex- ceptionoffuelwood,mostforest The cost of repairing flood dam- products are part of complex international trade patterns. There is thus the ages in India below the Himalayan potential both for shortages to echo re- watershed has recently averaged soundingly in faraway regions and for $250 million per year. areas of continued forest abundance to fill in etnerging supply gaps. Yet any changes in regional balances of supply Though rarely valued monetarily, the and demand can shift and alter pressures loss of the ecosystem functions provided on remaining tropical forests. freely by a natural forest entails real eco- Demand for hardwood in the indus- nomic andsocialcosts.Flooding, trial countries for houses, furniture, pan- droughts, and siltation in many parts of els, and other products has risen greatly since mid-century. Attention increas- the world are more severe because of ingly turned to the tropical forests, deforestation. A half billion people in where hapiwoods often comprised over India,Pakistan, and Bangladesh are 90 percent of the timber resource and affected by water runoff from the upper labor costs were comparatively low. Himalayan watershed. Deforestation of Consequently, annual production of Himalayan hillsides has greatly reduced sawlogs and veneer logs, the primary infiltration and the land's ability to retain raw material for wood industries, more water. Rapid runoff during heavy rains than doubled in the tropical regions be- and the resulting soil erosion and silting tween 1960 and 1980. (See Table 5-5.) of rivers sets the stage for massive flood- Tropical Asia consistently dominated ing downstream. The cost of repairing the production picture, accounting for flood damagesinIndia below the half the average annual production in Himalayan watershed has recently aver- the early sixties and 58 percent in the aged $250 million perey ar.44 seventies, over 95 percent of which was In the Philippines, a government re- in hardwoods.47 port blames deforestation for frequent Much of the increased production was flooding, erosion, the silting of rivers, shipped to Japan, North America, and and a loss of water supplies. Silting of Europe. These areas used 13 times more the reservoir behind Ambuklao Dam has industrial hardwood logs in 1973 than in halved the hydropower plant's expected 1950, while consumption in the tropical useful life.45 Haiti's largest hydroelectric regions themselves increased by only 2.5 project may not survive past 1986 be- limes. imports of tropical wood over this cause of silting behind the Peligrec Dam, period increased ninefold in the United and electricity rationing has already oc- States and Europe and nineteenfold in curred in Colombia and Costa Rica be- Japan.48 About three-fourths of Japan's cause of lost reservoir capacity at hy- supply was from Southeast Asia. Much of droelectricfacilities.Deforestation in the tropical hardwood imported to the Panama, besides causing siltation that United States started in Southeast and

100 Protecting Forests (85) Table 5-5. Annual Production of Saw lop and Veneer Logs in the Tropics, 1961791 1061-65 19r4-70 1971-75 1976-79 (thousand cubic meters) Tropical America 22.360 26.420 32,260 42,390 Tropical Africa 10,320 13.660 15.760 16,710 Tropical Asia 32,050 47,020 65.320 80.020

Total 64,730 87,100 113.340 139,120 'FAO now, that thew figures do not Include illegal loggmgs which in some countries may be 30 percem or ;mice of lecorded volumes, sovitt.a. tinted Nations Food and Agriculture Organnatton, Tropwat Forest Ramon% Forestry Paper 30 (Rtinte: 19621

East Asia. often going through Japan for Between mid-century. when exports processing. Tropical hardwoods used in of tropical hardwoods began increasing Westeni F:nrope largely originated in rapidly. and the early seventies, a large West and Central Africa, though in the portion of tropical logs left the produc- late seventies imports from Southeast ing countries in their unprocessed form. Asia increased significantly." In 1973. the primary tropical wood pro- The depletion of forests is reshaping ducers exported nearly half their logs trade patterns in tropical forest products unprocessed; the notable exception was as well as worsening some countries' bal- Latin America. which processed nearly ance of payments. Several long-time ex- 41 its logs and exported little of its forest porters have markedly reduced the products in raw form. Consequently. the amount of hardwood logs sent out of the unit value of forest product exports re- country and now focus more on process- mained comparatively low. Value was ing wood to meet their domestic needs. added in thosedeveloping countries that Some traditionalsuppliersin West processed wood into products such as Africa and Southeast Asiaareas where plywood, particle board, and veneer deforestation hag reached critical pro- sheets for domestic consumption or ex- portionshave nearly eliminated their port. FAO economist S.L. Pringle noted exports of sawlogs and veneer logs." in the mid-seventies that the tropical Ghana's 1981 raw log exports were only countries were failiog to rapture about 7 percent what they were ht 1964; Ni- $3O -50 per cubic meter on logs used for geria's were only 1 percent. Export de- sawnwood or veneer and $40-80 per clines began later elsewhere but were cubic meter on logs used for plywood. If also dramatic: Thailand's log exports in they hat: been able to process the 49 mil- 1981 were only 8 percent and those of lion cubic meters of unprocessed logs the Philippines 15 percutt or their peak exported in 1973, tropical countries amounts in recent years. While some could have gained perhaps an additional countries have increased their exports of $2 billion hi revenne.92 processed wood products and thereby Exports from Japan and the Philip- sustained the total value of their forest pines over the past decade are prime ex- exports. others have not. Nigel ia's twen- amples of this situation. About three- tyfold decline in log exports between quarters of the main industrial wood 1970 and1980,for example. was exports from the Philippines in 1973 matched by a sixteettfold declttte in the were unprocessed logs with a unit export export value of all Its forest products." value of $39 per cubic meter. Panels had

101 06) Stare of the World-1984 a unit export value more titan triple that Mdhon of the logs but represented only 5 per- Cubit Mete =s cent of exports. In contrast, Japanhis- 20 torically a major importer of unprocessed logs from the Philippinesearned Indonesia over $75 million in 1973 from exporting 15-!, just 165.000 cubic meters of wood-based Source. FA() panels. Thus it took close to two million cubic meters of Philippine log exports to 10- bring in as much revenue as the Japanese panels. In response to dwindling forests, rising domestic demands, and comparatively low unit export earnings for raw Philippines logs, the Philippines has decreased exports of all wood products, but espe- daily of unprocessedlogs.Higher- 1964 1970 1976 1982 valued wood-based panels now account Figure 5-1. Sawlog sad Veneer Log Exports, for 32 percent of forest-product export Philippines and Indonesia, 1964.81 earnings, whereas in 1973 they represented just 13 percent. rations' interest in Papua New Guinea, These fiscally appropriate responses where deforestation and logging have may prevent remaining tropical forests not yet occurred on a large scale." from following the route of other. now The picture painted is thus one of over-exploited areas. Indonesia, which shifting pressures within the tropical for- still has 80-100 million hectares of tropi- est resource base and of more active at- cal forest. (roughly half of which is virgin tempts by tropical countries to derive forest), emerged as the leading exporter greater value from remaining resources. of tropical hardwoods in the mid-seven- Given that a raw wood supply of at least ties and undoubtedly helped to fill the 15-30 years is needed to justify invest- gap left by the Philippine cutbacks. (See ment in local wooer processing facilities, Figure 5-1.) In 1980, over 80 percent of countries with substantial areas of tropi- Indonesia's timber exports were still in calforestsremainingand desiring the form of unprocessed logs. greater value from themhave an incen- Apparently realizing that it should get tive to manage their forests on a more more financial mileage from itsvast areas of remaining forest. the Indone- sustainable basis. Ironically, deforesta- sian Government is now strongly en- tion's implications may in this sense help couraging domestic processing of wood. reverse some of the forces that have per- With the aim of completely eliminatilg petuated it. raw log exports by the mid-eighties, strict export quotas were imposed in 1980. George Ledec of the World Rank notes that this measure was instituted despite significant economic obstacles, LESSONS FROM RECENT including protective tariffs applied by INITIATIVES importing countries such as Japan to processed wood products but not to raw Fuelwood shortages, uncontrolled clear- logs. Ledec also notes that Indonesia's ing of trees for agriculture, mining of action has piqued multinationcorpo- timber resources, and the increasing se-

1 02 Prottetiv Forests (87) verityofdeforestation'secological fOrest produce, and 20 percent of the net consequences are fundamentally chang- profit from the harvest in the fifteenth ing perceptions about the role of forests year. With a stake in the profits, families intropicaldevelopment.Initiatives thus have both an incentive to care for spawned by these new perceptions have the trees and a steady income until the in common a new %icy,- of forests not year of harvest. Another component of only as complex systeins in their owr Gujarat's program furnishes farmers right but as natural systems inextricably with free seedlings to be grown on de- linked to the human sy stems that revolve graded and marginal farmland. Each around them. Describing new forestry year these farmers receive 250 rupees efforts in Honduras, Marco Antonio for each hectare they tend, provided that Flores Rodas.. an FAO official and for- at least 70 percent of the trees survive.s6 mer Forestry Manager of the Honduran Despite its successes, social forestry in Corporation for Forestry Development, Gujarat and other areas of India has re- nmes It was intended that the distinc- cently come under severe criticism. Par- tion between forest, industry and peas- ticular concern has been raised about ant should be forgotten since they are promoting the planting of eucalyptus one and the same thing."s4 Putting for- trees. A study in the Kolar district of Kar- estry on a sustainable footing in the de- nataka State by the Indian Institute of veloping countries requires attacking Management found that social forestry the common roots of deforestation's was not achieving its goals and in fact direct causespopulation growth, in many ways was worsening the lot of poverty, landlessness, and the absence the poor people it presumably was de- ofviableoptionsforpeopleand signed to benefit. lmroduction of euca- goy ernments. Both inspiring acrd sober- lyptus encouraged private landholders ing, recent initiatives are focusing alien, to grow trees for sale in the markets, lion on new responses to a rarefy asked thus supplanting traditional community question: forestry for whom and for dependencies and disrupting commu- what? nity development. Although increasing India's western state of Gujarat is fuelwood supplies is a primary goal of widely recognized as haying that coun- social forestry,. eucalyptus has thus far try's most innovative and initially suc- provided little fuel for the villagers. With cessful social forestry program. At its the trees worth 250-300 rupees per ton, core is a plantation effort under which about 80 percent of the eucalyptus slate foresters encourage villages to es- grown in Kolar was sold as raw material tablish plantations on a portion of their for the rayon industry in Harihar. The communal land. Recent features added authors found that the plantations in to the program focus on individual for- Kolar did not help meet rural people's estryinitiatikes,supplementingthe desperate need for fuel and warned that somewhatfalteringprogressmade the firewood crisis may well worsen de- through communityforestry.ss One spite the "impressive" growth of euca- such change includes assigning to land- lyptus plantations in the villages.s7 less families 37.5 hectares of degraded Plantingeucalyptusoncropland forestland to be planted with seedlings makes it more difficult for the poor to at the rate of 2.5 hectares per year for 15 obtain food, income, and other basic years. In return for a commitment of 40 necessities beyond fuel. Although tree days of work per month, each family is planting programs ark ;mended for mar- paid a fixed monthly sum of 250 rupees ginal agricultural land, the area planted and offered free housing material, some to ragia staple millet in rural areas- 103 8S) Stair ofthe Woad-1984 &dialed b1 66 pet cent in the Kolar dis- known as agroforestry, integrates wood trict between 1977 and 1981, as much of and crop production. 'these schemes the area was converted to eucalyptus hold particular promise for areas in Cen- plantations. Ragi prices in the state dou- tral America and the semiarid African bled in the course of two years, partly a Sahel whereaditional farming systems result ofa crop failure in 1980-81 but no have begun to crumble under the pres- doubt also a reflection of the reduced sure of rising populations. Attempts to area in production. Although growing squeete more crops from marginal lands eucalyptus rather titan food crops can have resulted in shortened fallow peri- double or even quadruple a farmer's an- ods, declining soil fertility, and reduced nual income, it deprives landless labor- crop productivity; rising fuelwood de- ers of employment. The Indian Institute mand has spread desertification. authorsestimatethateachhectare Agroforestry projects in a number of shifted from food crops to eucalyptus re- countries are attempting to reverse sults in a loss of 250 days of work per these deteriorating conditions, in the year. Eucalyptus is also replacing native Kordofan region of Sudan, where deser- trees that better met some of the rural tification and firewood shortages are ex- people's basic needs: The loss of Honge tremely severe, efforts have focused on trees, which traditionally provided oil restoring the traditional practice of for lighting, has made local people more growing nitrogen-fixingacaciatrees dependent on expensive and unreliable along with food crops. Turi Hammer, suppIies of kerosene." Even those who designer of the Sudan program, attrib- dispute these criticistns of social forestry utes the willing cooperation of villagers agree that the present form of these largely to this emphasis on rebuilding efforts threatens to widen the gap be- time-tested sustainable land-use prac- tween the rural rich and poor." tices, as well as to their perception that Social forestry as often practiced to the program would supply food and date emerges from these assessments as water along with fuel. Overall, Hammer very much a double-edged sword. Be- states, "the fact that close to 1,000 farm- nefits clearly do accrue, but to whom and ers have actually planted seedlings to- at what social, economic, and envis on- gether with their agricultural crops and mental costs? Are program objectives that many more are in line to join next being met if, rather than meeting rural year's activities shows that the farmers people's bask needs directly, success re- themselvessmall and large, men and lies on benefits trickling down from womenregard the restocking of the those fortunate enough to derive income gum belt through agroforestry as one from supplying eucalyptus wood to the important measure to help secure a safe rayon industry? .These complex ques- livelihood M the area."" tions demand serious attention not only Alleviating pervasive fuelwood short- in India, where forestry programs in ages in the tropical countries requires some 100 districts are planned, but in not only programs to increase wood sup- other countries as well. One thing is plies but also efforts to use existing sup- dear: Measuring the success of social or plies more efficiently, Open fires, which community forestry efforts merely by the waste over 90 percent of the heat they number of seedlings planted, without generate, are still a primary means of concern for what species is planted cooking. In Kelly% where the fuel crisis where, by whom, and for whose benefit, is particularly acute, it takes nine million is insufficient and inappropriate. tons of wood to produce one million Another approach to reforestation, tons of charcoal. Yet without more- t04 hotel-tow Forests (89) efficient stoves, tlus ( hatcoal bittlIS With license from the Philippine Govern- only a 5-10 percent efficiency. Given ment." that 70 percent of the charcoal is used in PlCOP's innovative program encour- cities while 90 percent of Kenya's people ages nearby small farmers to grow trees live in rural areas,itis questionable on their marginal farmland for sale as whether Kenya can afford to use its wood pulpwood ft)r the industry's mills. This in this way, even though it does ease the program, funded in part by the World transport of fuel to urban areas.61 Bank, offers loans to farmers through Although stoves are available that can the Development Bank of the Philip- cut fuel consumption in half, their intro- pines and helps participants to plant and duction has met with limited success. care for the seedlings. The tree grown is Observers have found that rural people albizia, a fast-growing legume especially resist using these stoves because they suitable for manufacturing newsprint. often are not well suited to local social Through PlCOP's extension services, and cultural practices. Researchers at farmers have also been taught ways to the Beijer institute in Sweden, following improve their farming and livestock extensive study of the fuel crisis in tropi- methods. By March 1978, a total of cal Africa, concluded that "efforts to im- 3,400 farmers were growing roughly prove stove design are essentially mis- nine million seedlings on 16,600 hect- guided in that the criteria for design is ares.61 John Spears of the World Bank physical efficiency rather than socil effi- cautions that cash-tree programs such as ciency."61 As with social forestry pro- this are suitable main! when a process- grams in general. working with the local ing plant is located within a reasonable people in the planning And design of distance.Transportationcostspre- technologies to improve their cooking vented small farmers outside a 100 - and heating methods is essential. kilometer radius of the PICOP mill In several countries where logging has from pat.ticipating. Nevertheless, similar contributed to forest depletion. pro- schemes hold promise for other coun- grams have been introduced to protect tries,and tree-farmingprojects are forests from wasteful and unsound tim- being developed near other processing ber practices. One ar,parently successful plants in the Philippines 6s effort in the Philippines integrates local China and South Korea have been processing of pulpwood with an agro- widely lauded for their success in refor- forestry program aimed at stabilizing the esting their countrysides to restore the livelihoods of the shifting cultivators environmentalsupportfunctionsof largely responsible for forest destruc- their degraded lands More countries tion. The Paper industries Corporation are now following suit. The World Bank of the Philippines (P1COP), a 30-year- is funding watershed protection efforts old public corporation, was a pioneer in India, Indonesia. Nepal. the Philip- among tropical countries in developing pines. and Thailand. These projects in- domestic wood processing facilities. By volve not only soil conservation and 1971, PICOP had established pulp reforestation projects but also measures and newsprint mills, a container board to improve irrigation. Rood control. and plant, a sawmill, two plywood mills, a farming and grazing practices so as to veneer plant, and a blackboard plant. create more-sustainable land use sys- PICOP's integrated complex allows it to tems in these areas. An analysis of be- use nearly all the tree species and quali- nefits accruing to farmers from a soil ties of wood found on the 183.000 hec- conservation and forestry program M tares of public land it manages wider Thailand showed that increased crop 105 (90) State of the Wor Id-1984 yields and fuelwood and fodder produc- Table 5.6. Projected Tropical Forest tion would give the project a rate of re- Resource Base, 1985 turn of 13 percentevidence of the real economic value of ecologic restora- Forest Type Area tion.66 (million hectares) Closed Natural Forest 1.163 Open Woodlands 715 t orest Fallow 435 THE PROSPECTS FOR Shrubland 622 SUSTAINABILITY Total 2,935 SOURCE: United Nations Food and Agriculture Or- Sustaining the forest resource base in- ganization, Troptcal Fornt &mows, Forestry Paper volves defining the socially optimal mag- 30 (Rome: 1982) nitudes and mix of wooded landsold- open woodlands; 15 percent, forest fal- growthnatural forest,naturalor artificially regenerated forest, plant?. low; and 21 percent, degraded shrub- dons, and woodlotsthat willboth land. (See Table 5-6.) allow demand for wood products to be Plantations are expected to cover 17 met without depleting the forest capital million hectares by 1985. only 1 percent and preserve the essential nonmarket of all natural forest and open wood- values of the forest ecosystem. Changes lands. Based on estimates of existing now taking place in the structure and plantations and programs planned or composition of tropical forest resources under way, FAO projects that 59 percent resemble those that occurred in the tem of these plantations will grow trees for perate zone in past decades. Increasing industrial wood usesprimarily saw- demands for wood and wood products logs, veneer logs, and pulpwoodwhile have diminished old growth natural the rest will be nonindustrial plantations stocks, bringing demand and available growing trees to provide wood for fuel supplies into closer range. This has fos- or charcoal, nonwood products such as tered a gradual shift away from reliance fruits and gum arabic, or protection of on natural forests toward greater pro- soil and catchment areas. (See Table 5- duction and use of wood from higher- 7,) Industrial plantations are expected to yielding plantations.67 increase at 580.000 hectares per year between 1981 and 1985. 15 percent more that, during the preceding five years. The current rate of planting would Nonindustrial plantations arc projected have to be increased more than 13 to grow by 519.000 hectares per year, a 24 percent rise over the preceding five times to reach the level needed to years.60 meet year MO needs, At this rate of planting. the ratio of tropical areas being deforested to areas being planted with trees will be ten to In most regions of the tropics this one. Some of the deforested areas will transition has begun only recently. The support secondary growth; overall, how- FAO assessment of tropical forests pro- ever. planting will fall far short of com- jects a resource base in 1985 of about 2.9 pensating for deforestation. More im- billion hectares. of which 40 percent will portantisthe extent to which the be closed natural forest; 24 percent, projected mix and productivity of forest

106 Protecting Forests (91) Table 54. Establishmentof Plantations in the Tropics, 1916-80, WithProjections for 1911145 Annual Area Planted Total Area Plantation 1976-80 1981-85 by 1985 (thousand hectares) Industrial Plantations 503 580 9.968 Fast-growing hardwoods 149 214 3,185 Other hardwoods 127 100 2.734 Softwoods 227 266 4.049 Nonindustrial Plantations 418 519 7,039 Fast-growing hardwoods 286 385 5,211 Other hardwoods 90 87 1.310 Softwoods 42 47 518 sovat.t. Untied Nation Food and Agrtculture Orgatiutton. Tropical Forest Resources. Forestry Paper SO (Rome, PM). resources could meet future world needs world in the year 2000. Meeting this tar- on a sustainable basis. Here the picture get would require an eighteenfold in- is sobering, particularly for fuelwood in crease in current planting.69 the developing world. Although no cause for complacency, Given current planting rates. tropical the global picture for industrial wood nonindustrial plantations will cover 14.8 appears bright next to these foreboding millionhectaresinthe year 2000, figures for fuelwood. A team of experts slightly more than twice the area today. assembled by FAO from industries, uni- If the wood from all these plantations versities, and governments estimated were used for fuel, and if each hectare that global resources in the year 2000 annually yielded 20 cubic meters, 296 could supply over 2.5 billion cubic me- million cubic meters of fuelwood would ters of wood on a sustainable basis and be available from plantations in the year that demand under moderate growth as- 2000. Extrapolatingprevailingper sumptions should be about 2 billion capita consumption levels to the year cubic meters. However, the team's pro- 2000. when the developing world's pop- jections pointed to large imbalances in ulation is projected to be 4.86 billion, 'regional demand and supply. Western yields a requirement of 2.19 billion cubic Europe and japan are projected to have meters of fuelwood. Thus fuelwood net trade deficits in the year 2000 of 75 plantations would meet only 14 percent and 118 million cubic meters, respec- of these needs. The current rate of tively, and collectively the industrial planting would have to be increased countries (excluding the Soviet Union more than 13 times to reach the level and Eastern Europe) are expected to needed to meet year 2000 needs. More- need imports totaling 130 million cubic over, since 112 million people lacked meters. Moreover, higher rates of popu- sufficient fuelwood as of 1980, per capita lation and economic growth would in- consumption figures are below what crease demand worldwide, Under FAO's they would be if fuel needs were being high-growth assumptions, demand in met adequately. Indeed, FAO projects 2000 would be about 2.6 billion cubic that 3 billion cubic meters of fuelwood meters, exceeding projected available might be needed for the developing supplies,"

107 (92) State of the World-1984 The FAO team assumed that wood Table 5.8. Per Capita Consumption of from developing countries could fill in Wood Products in Developing Countries, twothirds of the expected 130-millizat- 1970and1980 cubic-meter gap in industrial countries through less-selective cutting of existing Product 1970 1980 Change stocks, logging of less accessible areas. (cubic (percent) and plantations. Based just on estimates meters) of forest area and productivity, the So- Fuelwood viet Union could comfortably supply the and Char«sal 445 .452 + 2 additional50millioncubicmeters Industrial needed to balance the global demand- Wood' .090 .118 +31 supply equation. Of the Soviet Union's Paper and estimated 785 million hectares of for- Paper Board .005 .008 +60 ests, only about half are considered ac- 'Industrial wood 1% the s11111ofindustrial round. cessible for timber operations. Softwood wood. saw ;mood And sleepers. and wood.based taken from these exploitable forests is panels. already thought to he outpacing the sus- sotRc. United Nations Food and Agricultureor- tainable harvest, yet hardwood removals ganization.Repaint' Tables of Praduaton. Prude and are only about one-fourth the estimated Cotisninpiran of Finest Product, NW Economic- Clas.,, sustainable yield of 250 million cubic and Regions Mom: 198'21 meters. Thus while balancing overall afforestation efforts, all presently open numbers, the study team foresees strains to speculation. Indeed, the team con- on supplies of tropical logs, softwood cluded that if world demand reaches the logs, and pulpwood", projected high-growth level of 2.6 bil- Clearly, the practical reality may not lion cubic meters, the additional needed match the on-paper possibility of balanc- wood might come "at a considerably in- ing world wood needs with supplies in creased cost, from the tropical forests of this manner. Export decisions by the So- viet Union and developing countries un- the Amazon Basin and the less accessible doubtedly will be shaped by domestic coniferous forests of Siberia and from goats and policies that may not accord lower quality North American hard- with the needs of wood-short regions. woods. Additional quick-growing plan- And per capita consumption of wood tations in the tropics would also be products in the developing world has needed.'" risen dramatically in recent years. (See Although laced with uncertainties, Table 5-E.) The combination of these these trends clearly portend rising prices trends and Third World population in and greater pressure to log tropica: for- creases will intensify pressures for do- ests. Competition for increasingly scarce mestic use of tropical wood. China was tropical logs between importing coun- assumed by the FAO team to be self- tries and wood-processing industries sufficient in both hardwoods and soft- within the producing countries will also woods over the long term. Yet log ex- raise prices. Use of more species and ports to China from the Minted States grades of wood from tropical forests, as jumped from 210,000 cubic meters in well as of mill residuals for pulpwood, 1980 to 1.28 million cubic meters ill can counterbalance some of these pres- 1982a sixfold increase,72 Chinese im- sures. Yet with an exacerbating fuel- port needs in the future will depend on wood crisis in the develoring world and populationgrowth,industrialization the newly recognized possibility of de- plans, and the success and scale of clines in forest prerit,cmity in some key

108 Protecting Forests (91) temperate regions from add depositin, Lencaena. which has slidwn produc- sustaining an adequate global timber iivities of 30-50 cubic meters per hect- supply will present some hard choices. are, is being planted on thousands of More plantations are clearly a key to II, dares in the Philippines, including meeting future demands. The story of large areas of degraded grasslands. plantations so far in tropical commies is leticaena supplies fiher suited for paper- one of unrealized potential. Eighty-tive making and wood for pulping. as well as percent of the areas u alergoing refor- forage, fuel, and fertilizer. Acacia trees estation are planted with one of three have taken hold on barren spoil dumps types of trees: pities. eucalyptus, or teak. from tin tnitung in Malaysia and helped Many other species may prove more use- to stabilize eroding hillsidesinIn- ful in meeting not only dem: ids for donesia. Foresters have planted over wood but also the varied needs of local 15,000 hectares of degraded land in populations.Initialexperiments with Malaysia with another acacia variety that some little-known tropical legume spe- appears to grow on quite acidic soils. Its cies, for example, are showing great high quality wood offers potential for pi °misc. The characteristics of many sawed timber, furniture, veneer, fire- legumes make them ideally suited to the wood, and .'uircoal as well as pulp and multiplepurposeofrerorestation paper. Fuelwood plantations of callion- efforts. They are natural yonecrs in dra now cover some 200.000 hectares in plant succession, and thus a logical Java, many planted by local villagers who choice for reforesting degraded lands often intercrop these small firewood and controlling erosion. Many species trees with fruit trees and vegetahles.75 can he seeded directly, avoiding the ex- Many other specieslook equally pense and complications of distribution promising. Collectively, they not only frotn nurseries; with their ability to fix hold potential for helping to meet fuel nitrogen, they require little or no fertili- and industrial wood demands, but also zer, Their inherent hardiness suns them may enhance the prospects for a sustain- remarkably to degraded nutrient-poor ahle way of life for rural populations. soil, and 2 variety of climates and envi- Their beauty lies in their apparent ability ronments. A recently puhlished manual to hattle not only deforestation's conse- descrihing 90 different firewood species quencesboth economic and ecologic includes 35 belonging to the legume but its causes as well. If even 10 pei- family.74 cent of the land now in forest fallow were Althoughclearlyoptimisticahout planted with species yielding an average these specks' potential, scientists who of W cubic "meters per hectare, an addi- have introduced and studied them in tional 870 'talon cubic meters could he various locations and conditions are cau- available each year to help meet fuel- tious not to view them as a panacea, wood and other needs. Monoculture plantations, especially of Plantations clearly cannot he the sole introduced spurges, are not without eco- savior of tropical forests. Odd as it may logic risks, and the hardiness of some of sound, further exploitation of natural these species raises the possibility of forests themselves may he a key to their their becoming uncontrolled weeds. An survivalnot traditional exploitation for informed verdict on the real potential timber. but exploitation and sustainahle and consequences of these tropical tree use of the multitude of other products legumes will not be in for perhaps five to this lich resource offers. Citing a host of ten years. Yet results to date are promis- specialty materials valuahl.: to industry ing. including latex. gum, camphor, resins, 109 19.11 State of the World-1984 tannins. and dyesNorman Myers pic- can alter the present course of forest de- tures the possibility of industrial centers struction without the institutions and so- using as raw materials tropical forest cial mechanisms to direct these dollars products harvested on a sustainable to the problem's core. Recent efforts basis with little disturbance of the natu- show that forestry programs are bound ral forest." Ways to exploit tropical for- to fail if they neglect the basic needs of ests' economic potential while preserv- the forest's human dependents. As M.A. ing their essential ecologic functions are Flores Rodas of FAO states, "Once we many, though as yet they are little recog- are all convinced that, in order for the nized or explored. forest to survive, its inhabitants must In most developing countries, the in- survive first, we shall reach the point stitutions, financial capital. and social where both can sure lye:Is mechanisms needed to chart a sustain- Greater emphasis on social forestry. able course for forest resources are not reforestation, and forest preservation yet available. International lending or- engender optimism. Yet the deforesta- ganizations have a vital role to play not tion dilemma still cries for more commit- only in helping define this course but in ment, clarity, and vision. Reforestation providing the technical and financial effons are less than a tenth of what they means by which developing countries need to be to avert a worsening fuel- can embark upon it. The World Bank wood crisis. Dollar commitments for and U.N. lending agencies are now plac- creating and maintaining tropical forest ing increased emphasis on community reserves are woefully inadequate to en- forestry, on projects for ecologic resto- sure that species and gene pools are pre- ration, and on forestry's integral role in served for this and future generations. rural development. Although none of Newinstitutionalmechanismsare the agricultural and rural development needed to generate and wisely channel projects funded by the World Bank be- the billions of dollars needed over the tween 1969 and 1972 included a forestry coming decades to sustain the products component, 17 of those between 1973 and nonmarket values of these forests. It and 1977 did. Over 60 percent of World is neither plausible nor equitable to ex- Bank loans for 1978-80 forestry projects pect the developing countries endowed were geared toward environmental pro- with this resource to shoulder the bur- tection and fuelwood production. FAO's den of its preservation unaided. Tropi- 1982-83 budget for forestry programs cal forests' intrinsic role in maintaining was 30 percent higher than the previous ecologic integrity and biological and ge- year including a 67 percent increase in netic divenity make them global assets projects for rural development.71 warranting a global commitment to their No infusion of dollars, however large, preservation.

10 6 Recycling Materials William U Chandler

Wood, iron, and aluminum, the princi- facturewood, aluminum, andsteel pal materials used in a modern economy. products create severe environmental will serve as basic building blocks of a problems, recycling promotes environ- sustainable future. But their availability mental protection. And solid waste dis- is threatened by the uncertain prospects posal, at $30-100 per ton, represents a for energy, a resource with painfully ob- major budget item for many cities.' Resi- vious constraints.' Simply maintaining dents often react strongly against having current levels of materials production dumps located near their homes, creat- will require prodigious quantities of ening political roadblocks to waste dis- ergy. World steel production alone con- posal. The prospect of achieving a 40 sumes as much energy annually as Saudi percent reduction in slid waste, as some Arabia produces. To raise global per cities have done, offers leaders a tangible capita use of metals to U.S. leA eels would political and economic opportunity. require the energy output of seven Saudi Recycling thus saves energy and ex- Arab ias. or 40 percent of commercial en- pensive raw materials, protects the envi- ergy consumption. Many people still lack ronment, and cuts waste disposal costs. basicmaterialamenitiesmetalfor Despite these advantages, only about water pipes, wood for housingand the one-quarter of the world's paper, alumi- earth's population is still growing. Recy- num, or steel is recovered for reuse. cling, fortunately, can cut the energy re- Nevertheless, certain areas have made quired in materials production by 50 to remarkableprogress.Thesecities, 90 percent and thus help narrow the states, and countries have developed widening inequity between the world's markets for the waste products they col- rich and poor. lect and have facilitated collection in a Throwing away an aluminum beverage variety of ways. Many countries have in- container wastes as much energy as pour- vested in recycling equipment even ing out such a can half-filled with gaso- when locally available scrap has been in- line; failing to recycle a weekday edition sufficient; imports of waste paper, scrap of theWashington PostorLos Angeles Times iron, and aluminum scrap have thus con- wastes just about as much.2 Because pro- tributed to recycling elsewhere. Their ducing and consuming energy to manu- investments have saved capital and en- iii (96) State of the World-1984 el to and have helped nations compete in areas of the world have registered gains. international markets b) reducing debt, Voluntary recycling efforts have brought improving trade balances, and lowering some success, but progress has come the cost of products manufactured for about mainly in response to necessity. export. A large inlet national trade in re- Countries that have increased materials cyclable materials has developed, in fact. recycling have been motivated by three providing a powerful new tool that can main facto's: short supply of raw materi- transform a wasteful world materials in- als, high energy and capital costs for dustry into one that is sustainable. processing materials, and high environ- Wood, aluminum, and iron take prior- mental costs in materials production and ity in recycling because their production disposal. Countries that have not pro- requires large quantities of energy and gressed have generally masked necessity causes major environmental problems. with price controls and trade barriers. Also, their abundance should satisfy de- Those that have succeeded, however, mand for base materials in the foresee- have turned their handicaps to advan- able future. Among resources, however, tage, They have cut both environmental wood takes a special place: It is a fuel, a and economic costs of materials use. building material, the raw material for paper. and a substitute for oil as a feedstock for chemicals production. And it is Recycling half the paper used in renewable. Sustaining the world's for- the world today would meet almost ests, already being depleted faster than they are being renewed, is therefore a 75 percent of the deinimd for new special necessity. Yet progress in recy- paper and would free 8 million hect- cling paper has been slower than that of ares of forest from paper produc- aluminum, and the paper recycling in- don. dustry is much smaller than that of iron and steel. Each material requires different recycling technologies, policies, and mar- Metals recovery reduces pollution. kets. The constraints on recycling may Using coke in iron ore reduction pro- differ from resource to resource, much duces copious quantities of airborne as trade barriers for iron scrap differ particulates, including carcinogenic sub- from tax sttbsidies for timber harvesting. stances such as benzopyrene,4 Recycling RCITIOVIng such obstacles may require iron and steel reduces these particulate action on planes as different as local zon- emissions by 11 kilograms per metric ing boards and international trade com- ton of steel produced. It also cuts coal missions. Each resource, its potential for and iron ore mining wastes by 11,000 recycling, and its special technical and kilogramspermetrictonrecycled. political circumstances tnust be consid- These solidwastes,unless handled ered in turn. properly, can contaminate surface and groundwaters with acid and toxic metal drainage. Recycling aluminum reduces air emissions associated with its production by 95 percent. (See Table 6-1.) Dou- THE VIRTUE OF NECESSITY bling worldwide aluminum recovery rates would eliminate over a million tons Recycling has been an environmental of air pollutants, including toxic fluo- goal for a decade now, but only a few ride.s

112 Rerythag Almenals (97) Table &I United States: Environmental Benefits of Recycling'

Environmental Benefit Paper Aluminum Iron&Steel (percent) Reduction of Energy Use 30-552 90-95 60-70 Reduction of Spoil&Solid Waste 1302 100 95 Reduction of Air Pollution 95 95 30 'Percent reduction m B i US, 10115 of waste, tons of particulates. etc., per ton of material recycled. *Refers to combustion of both commercial energy and wood reseducs.5Morc than a 100 percent reduction is possible because 1 3 pounds of waste paper 13 required to product one pound of recycled paper. If all paper were recycled, the waste reduction, of course, would equal only 100 percent. motets; R.C. Ziegler co al . Impacts of iipgm and Rended Sieel and Alunuman (Washington. P.C.: U.S. En iroinitentai Protection Agent y. 1976), flask Pop Recovery (Paris Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 1979)

Paper recycling helps preserve forests. ered by trees. Mature softwood trees are Paper products use about 35 percent of identified as those over nine inches in the world's annual commercial wood diameter, though this describes a very harvest, a share that will probably ;row youngforest.Intensivelymanaged to 50 percent by the year 2000.6 Al- woodlands will not retain the species di- though a sanguine attitude regarding versity of natural forests and will not be the state of the world's forests has a cer- as resilient against disease and pollution. tain following, there is little reason for Advocates of more intensive harvesting complacency. As documented in Chap- in the United States point out that ter 5, the world's tropical hardwood for- "growing stock" has been cut at rates far ests are expected to decline 10 percent below replacement, but they ignore the by the end of the century. The softwood fact that, as the Wall Street pumar put it, forests of western Russia have long been "these forests are neither deep, nor harvested at unsustainable rates, while dark, nor lovely."9 Much of what is those of central Europe are dying from called forest can neither satisfy human air pollution. The resulting decline in aesthetic needs nor produce commercial wood production will put additional timber. pressure on other forests.' The United Paper recycling can help satisfy addi- States, producer of one-third of the tional paper needs for years to come. world's commercialforestproducts, Only 25 percent of the world's paper is would be expected to take up much of now recycled, though no technical or eco- this slack. But the harvest of mature soft- nomic reasons prevent a doubling of wood forests in the United States has this figure by the end of the century. exceeded replacement forseveral Recycling half the paper used in the decades. Industry - owned forests, in fact, world today would meet almost 75 per- have been cut so heavily that mature cent of the demand for new paper and trees have heen depleted at an annual would free 8 million hectares (20 mil- rate of I to 2 percent, apparently since lion acres) of forest from paper produc- the early fifties.* tion, an area equal to about 5 percent Forests in the United States may not of Europe's woodlands. But projections be as ample as many imagine, however, of the future use of the waste paper re- anti may require additional protection. source are far less optimistic. Franklin U.S. officials define a forest as an area as Associates, a consulting firm specializ- small as one acre that is 20 percent coy- ing in paper recycling, projects that recy- 113 (98) Stateofthe World-1984 cled paper will supply only 28 percent of WASTE PAPER world paper production in the year 2000.10 World waste paper consumption has in- Less well known are the economic be- creased 140 percent since 1965. Paper nefits of materials recy ling. Producing consumption has doubled over the same paper, aluminum, and iron and steel period, however, so the share of paper from secondary instead of virgin materi- recycled has changed only slightly, from alstypically halves investment costs 20 percent in 1965 to 24 percent in and, though varying with the product 1982. Despite this poor record, certain and the country, can cut total costs sig- countries have achieved much higher nificantly. Because energy costs are also rates of paper recycling than others. {See lower, recycled paper can compete fa- Table 6-2.) Moreover, much of this vorably in many markets, depending on progress has been made only in the last the cost of collecting the paper. The ten years. {See Table 64.) total production costs for producing alu- Japan,theNetherlands,Mexico, minunr and iron and steel from scrap in- South Korea, and Portugal lead in waste stead of ore can be 10 to SO percent paper recovery or use. japan in 1980 col- lower. Debt-ridden developing coun- lected almost half the paper used in the tries and their lenders could benefit country. The Netherlands, which has from investing in recycling rather than materials production from virgin ores Table 6-2. Paper Use and Waste Paper and fibers.11 Recycling, Selected Countries, 1978-80 Unfortunately, many nationsindus- Annual Paper trial as well as developingcontinue to Consumption Recovery mask the growing necessity of capturing Country Per Capita Ratel recycling's benefits. They subsidize energy use with price controls, production (pounds) (percent) tax incentives, and the uncontrolled en- Mexico n.a. 50 vironmental cost of producing and using Japan 326 45 energy in materials processing. The full Netherlands 347 43 cost of energy-intensive materials is not Spain 156 40 accurately represented in prices, and the South Korea 87 38 incentive to reduce these posts is conse- Hungary 37 quently diminished. The true cost of en- 132 ergy includes damage to forests from West Germany 346 35 acid rain, to human health from pollu- Sweden 477 34 tion. to human and aquatic populations Italy 205 29 displaced by hydroelectric projects, and 'Brazil 64 29 so on. Solid-waste disposal costs usually Australia 295 28 are paid in general taxes, not by in- United States 580 26 dividuals who create waste, leaving no Canada 417 18 incentive to reduce costs. And export Philippines 22 16 barriers have been erected specifically to Nigeria 7 2 reduce the price of metal scrap, a measure that reduces the incentive to collect World Estimate 80 24 scrap and makes it less available as a sub- 1Waste paper collected as a percent of paper consumption. three ear average. 197840. stitute for primary materials. Countries sointcr.: United Nations Food and Agriculture Or- that lead in recycling have removed gani/ation, Advisory Committee on Pulp and most, if not all, of these masks. Paper. "Waste Paper Data 197840." Rome, 1981. 114 Recycling Materials (99) Table 6.5. Waste Paper Recovery, Selected Countries, 1960-80'

Country 1960 1965 1970 1974' 1980 (percent) Australia n.a 16 n.a. 23 28 Austria 22 25 30 30 33 Canada 16 15 19 18 19 Denmark 21 13 18 28 27 France 27 27 28 31 30 West Germany 27 27 30 32 35 Italy 15 17 21 28 30 Japan u.1 37 39 39 47 Netherlands 34 34 40 46 44 Nnrway 16 20 17 21 22 Spain 25 28 28 32 38 Sweden 26 21 22 28 33 Switzerland 33 33 31 40 35 United Kingdom 28 29 29 28 34 United States n a. 22 21 242 27

Wnrld Estimate n.a. 20 21 24 25 'Waste paper collected as a percent of paper consumption. ?Data for 1975 unavailable. except for the United States. sources: 1960-74 data from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. flask Popo &rover) (Paris. 1979). 1980 data from United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation. Advisory Committee on Pulp and Paper. "Waste Paper Data 1978-807 Rome. 198 t. been a leader in paper recycling for has been promoted by twin necessities. decades, recovered 44 percent of its In addition to being "fiber poor," both paper in 1980.12 South Korea, Portugal. are crowded, land-poor countries with and Mexico doubly contribute to waste populations strongly opposed to waste paper recovery: They have high recovery dumps. These factors together have rates and they import waste paper. driven up both the economic and the po- Why do some countries perform bet- litical costs of u 'sting paper. Importing ter than others? Their admirable per- finished paper was expensive, and the formance has been predictably pro- Japanese passionately opposed dumps moted by necessity. These "fiber-poor" being located near their homes, making countries, without substantial forests it politically costly for leaders to override available for pulpwood harvesting, have residents' protests. The Dutch similarly been pressed by price and scarcity to opposed landfill disposal of municipal conserve waste paper.. This may be waste. Since 20 to 40 percent of Japa- partly a matter of choice for the Japa- nese and Dutch municipal solid waste is nese, since they have forests on their paper, recycling ameliorates waste dis- northern islands that they do not heavily posal proble ms. 14 exploit. South Korea has made great Japan's efforts in recycling have his- strides in reforestation, but still places torical roots but began in earnest in the heavy demand on its forests, especially mid-sixties. Now about 10 percent of for firewood, I s Japan's total municipal waste is recycled, Success in Japan and the Netherlands and efforts to increase this proportion 115 (too) State of the Wm 1d-1984 continue." Collet non of WdS(C materials processing recycles 90 percent of the is done in surprisingly diverse ways, sug- city's garbage." Progress such as this gesting that systems can be made to flows from the legendary discipline of work in any number of circumstances as the Japanese. their proclivity for effi- long as collected waste can be sold for a ciency, and their willingness to cooper- reasonable price. ate and solve problems. The grass-roots One of the first programs in Japan re- information system provided by citizens sulted from the efforts of a private en- works well, apparently as a result of the trepreneur who in 1960 persuaded the incentives provided to groups. The Japa- government of Ueda City to pay him nese make it easy to participate and diffi- a portion of the "avoided costs'' of cult not to participate in paper recycling. landfilling the materials that his firm re- The Dutch have taken a different, cycled. The city has found it preferable though equally successful, approach to to pay a small recycling incentive than to waste paper collection. As in Japan, ne- pay a larger amount for waste disposal. cessity motivated national and local gov- The plan requires residents to separate ernments to encourage recycling: Both refuse into combustible and noncom- fiber resources and land for waste dis- bustible material. Glass is separated by posal have been scarce. The Netherlands hand at the dump and ferrous metal has historically achieved the best paper removed by magnet.16 recycling record in the world, using a Elsewhere in Japan, Hiroshima has few key policies to make the marketplace achieved stunning success: Disposal of work better. For example, the govern- raw refuse has been reduced by 40 ment established the world's first waste percent since 1976. Student clubs, par- exchange, a free brokerage service to ent-teacher organizations, and other match buyers and sellers of waste. The nonprofit groups that organize source government has also attempted to stabil- separation programs and the delivery of ize the typical boom-and-bust cycles waste materials are paid at or above mar- in recyclables by establishing "buffer ket rates, with a subsidy made possible stocks." by savings from avoided landfill fees. In The recycling industry is particularly Fuchi City. a suburb of Tokyo, the local vulnerable to wild cyclical swings in the government purchased recycling equip- market, and the recent recession has ment for the use of a private firm The been the worst since the Great Depres- firm must turn over to the city much of sion. Buffer stocks enable collectors of the revenue earned from sales of recycla- waste paper in the Netherlands to sell to ble materials, but is permitted to keep 20 the government-established fund when percent of any revenues above the costs prices drop below a predetermined of collection and operation of the facil- level. The stock is sold when prices go ity. In a variation of this approach, the up again, and the fund is thereby replen- Shiki district of Tokyo made the initial ished.19 Some economists say this is investment in equipment, but lets a com- costly and sometimes counterproduc- pany earn all its revenues from the sales tive. It is difficult to match its operation of recyclables." with the needs of the market and thus to "We have to change [wasteful] culture avoid undesired market distortions. Yet from the very roots," asserts Munco the approach has been used in both Matsumoto, an official in Machida, "the Japan and the Netherlands, the two lead- garbage capital of Japan." Machida ing nations in paper recycling, and may boasts that its new recycling program of merit further consideration elsewhere." source separation and computerized The Netherlands also strongly pro-

116 Recycling Alalenals (ban motes source separation. though differ- waste may be another's raw material. A ently from japan. which has relied more West German waste exchange founded on awareness, information. incentives. in 1974 has brokered over 20.000 offers and armies of nonprofit organizations. and requests for recyclable materials and The Dutch simply enacted a law requir- has expanded into Austria, Switzerland, ing source separation in all municipali- northern Italy, and France. But ,t., the ties that have contracted for collection of experience in the most successful coun- waste paper. Their success reinforces tries suggests. simultaneously establish- the point that any number of policies Mg markets and encouraging collection ma) be applied to effect recycling once a with various strong measures is impor- society makes it a priority. tanoz Mandatory source separation has recently been applied with success in the United States. Islip, New York. was sued Machida (japan) boasts that its new by the state to halt landfilling, partly because its dump was contaminating un- recycling program of source sepa- derground water and releasing yin)l ration and computerized process- chloride into the air. A court settlement ing recycles 90 percent of the city's required the city to initiate recycling. garbage. Residents may now be fined up to $250 for noncompliance. No major enforce- ment actions have been needed vet. however. because the 50 percent compli- Necessity is the mother of collection, ance rate has exceeded the city's capabil- and uneven distribution of the world's ity to handle recyclables. The collection forest resources provides some nations program has succeeded without costly withlocal abundance despite global investments in sophisticated engineer- scarcity, thereby lessening their pressure ing devices. Residents simply place re- to recycle. But just as wasting gasoline in cyclables in containers. putting glass and an oil-rich country carries an opportu- cans on top and paper underneath. The nity cost in lost export sales, so does tits sorts ferrous material with magnets waste of recyclable paper. If properly and the rest by hand, as in Ueda City, promoted, the new and growing interna- japan.21 tional market for waste paper could pro- "Markets first,collections second" vide a strong incentive to all countries. should be the philosophy of recyclers, International waite paper trade has according to Ronald Rosenson of the grown from almost nothing in the early National Association of Recycling In- seventies to about 10 percent of all waste dustries in the United States. That is, paper collected, or 2-3 percent of all the first priority in materials recycling paper used in the world. The value of policy should be to establish demand for this trade totals some $600 million. de- recyclable products. If markets are es- pending upon volatile market prices.23 tablished. collection will follow. To en- Mexico now produces half its paper courage market development. the Scan- from waste paper. In South Korea, im- dinaviancountrieshavecreated a ported waste provides 40 percent of the cooperative waste ext bane: Sweden. in fiber used in paper production. Almost fact, helps industries with hazardous half of Italy's paper production also de- wastes find buyers who can put the mate- pends on waste, a significant portion of rial to productive use. 'These exchanges which is imported. Canada imports half are based on the principle that one firm's the wage paper it uses.24 This, tinfortu- 117 (to2) Stair of the WorldI984 !lately, is a consequence of the low col- reflect its true economic value. In na- lection rate within its own borders. Most tions where mature softwood forests are other importers have high domestic harvested faster than they are replaced, rates of waste paper collection. The high reducing the rate of harvest would put percentages achieved in japan, the Neth- the price of pulp closer to its long-term erlands, South Korea, and Mexico are all economic value. Forests would thus be the more remarkable considering that afforded greater protection and waste much of the paper they use is exported paper recycling would be encouraged. as packaging for manufactured goods. Paper and wood prices need not increase The United States now dominates the as long as additional quantities of waste international waste paper trade, account- paper are recovered and recycled. ing for 85 percent of net sales. The sig- The U.S. Government could take a nificant expansion of trade between this major step in this direction, since it owns leader and Mexico, South Korea, and half the softwood forests in the country. japan during the seventies can serve as a The U.S. Forest Service directly affects model for development of waste paper the price of pulp by leasing large areas of trade elsewhere. China, India, the Philip- national forests each year regardless of pines, and Thailand could all become market demand. The suspension or large markets for recyclable paper." modification of this practice, coupled Bin obstacles to trade could effectively with a setting aside of more publicly block such development. Though trade owned forests for wilderness and park- in waste paper has so far met with few land, would reduce the environmental serious constraints, several factors have subsidy of the use of virgin pulp and in- kept it below its potential. South Korea, crease the relative attractiveness of waste for example, imposes a 10 percent im- paper. The United States may also find it port fee on waste paper. Because the particularly advantageous to acquire and United States is the main source and protect forests in the Southeast, where shipping rates are extremely favorable wood harvesting is growing rapidly. on this route. the tariff has not deterred The price of waste paper can be stabil- paper exporters. Under less favorable ized by increasing demand for it and by transportation terms, however, tariffs expanding its collection. Higher, more and constraints on licensing imports stable prices would provide an incentive would hinder recycling. Transportation, for commercial collection. Local zoning in fact, has been a serious impediment. ordinances to reduce landfill disposal of Waste paper trade between the United paper wastes, along with broader re- States and Venezuela has been crippled gional or national laws requiring source by high rates, and inadequate rail facili- separation and mandatory collection of ties have hampered trade between the waste paper, will increase supplies and United States and Mexico. Another sig- thus serve to prevent drastic price in- nificant impediment has been unstable creases. Indeed, the greater problem currency exchange rates. High values for will be to maintain demand for waste the U.S. dollar have reduced the coun- paper, International markets will be estry's exports of waste paper.26 sential for this purpose. In addition to encouraging the expan- Waste paper will not be used unless sion of international trade in this re- there is the means to use k, and this im- source, paper recycling can be promoted plies that a marked change is needed in by creating or widening its cost advan- investment strategies in the papennalt- tages over paper made from virgin pulp. ing process. Following World War II, One advantage could be provided by in- most Canadian and U,S. papermakers creasing the price of virgin wood pulp to built mills to exploit virgin pulp. A dlr.

118 Recycling .11atenals (103) ferent type of mill is imputed to produce source rewi et y systems. which burn re- paper from waste. Private companies will fuse to produte energy. But sotne cities be induced to build recycling mills have gone beyond using refuse and want mainly by policies that increase the price to burn paper now being recycled. difference between virginpulp and Akron. Ohio, for example. has built a waste paper. resource recovery plant and has fought In developing confines, however. to control all waste products in the city. using cheap waste paperdomestic Or The plant's creditors successfully pres- importedrather than imported pulp or sured the city to ensure chat all burnable finished paper products has already waste would flow to the facility in order proved economically amain% e. Interna- to increase the revenues generated by its tional development agencies and finan- energy sales. This meant that would-be cial Mstittnions have begun to recognise recyclers collecting old newspapers. cut- the cost-cutting potential of tin estment tings from envelope manufacturers, or in waste paper recycling in the Third corrugated containers from supermar- World. The World Bank contributed al. ketswild be forced to deliver these most $1 million in 1982 to improve the materialstothecity dump tobe efficiency with which Egypt's outcasts burned Y9 As a fuel, waste paper is worth and garbage pickers. the Zebaleen. col- about $20 per ton. while recyclable lect Cairo's wastes. The organization has paper has a value of $40-60 per ton or also supported amultimillion- dollar more. project in Egypt that will recycle papei .27 The Japanese. the Dutch, and others Such investments in developing coun- also widely use incineration and energy tries can lead to higher rates of waste re« :ery, but only after recyclable waste paper collection by creating a ready mar- paper has been collected. These facili- ket. ties can be sized in advance to account Government procurement of recycled for paper removed for recycling. if they paper stitnulates recycling. By law, the are not, however, cities will have a pow- U.S. Gov eminent must purchase paper erful incentiv e to disc urage recycling. made lion' recycledfibers,binthe Many U.S. facilities were planned in the Carter and Reagan administrations have energy crisis atmosphere of the seven- ignored this requiremem The state gov- ties. But as David Brower. founder of ernment of Maryland, however, has Friends of the Earth, said in opposition effectii ely cotnplied with a similar law: to a resource recovery plant in his home Twenty -five percent of the state's paper town, they may. be "a good idea whose is now recycled stoc k.29 The Organisa- time has passed." 90 Some U.S. advocates tion for Economic Co-operation and De- of recycling call for a federal law to pro- velopment also encourages procure- tect recyclers from monopoly control of ment of recy sled paper for its own use as nutnicipalities' wastes. Since the United well as for that of its 24 member nations. States has 34 energy recovery facilities in The use of waste paper as a fuel in the operation, 20 nearing completion. and United States has unfortunately crated many others under consideration in an obstacle to increased recycling. which communities facing shortages of landfill Rodney Edwards of the American space, millions of tons of recyclable 'j.Paper Institute calls "the worst threat to waste paper could soon be "wasted" in paper recycling."this threat is "flow municipal incinerators. control." or government monopoly of Another government constraint on re- the flow of waste materials. 'lite opposi- cycling stems limn the control of energy tion to and cost of landfmlling has drawn prices. The United States, for example. municipal gm ernments to the use of re. controls the price of natural gas. which 119 (1041 Sinkofthe World-1984 ranks second only to waste wood as a These products last many years and so fuel for the U.S. paper industry. As a do not soon yield their metal to recy- result. the industry uses more natural cling. Purchases of washing machines, gas and less waste wood to produce refrigerators, and automobiles in Brazil, paper. Paper prices do not reflect the for example. grew at an annual rate of 24 true energy costs of production, and this percent in the early seventies.st Such in turtt lowers the rate of paper recycling countries, moving from low to high per by decreasing the relative value of waste capita rates of aluminum consumption paper. Because the United States pro- or experiencing high rates of population duces one-third of the world's paper, the growth, can expect somewhat less alumi- government's policy on natural gas num to be available for recovery. But prices in effect reduces waste paper de- many countriessuch as Australia, Can- mand throughout the world." ada, Norway. and the United States have had high per capita rates of aluminum consumption for years yet recycle relatively small amounts. (See Table 6- 4.) Low recycling rates in these countries RECOVERING ALUMINUM Table 6.4. Aluminum Use and Recycling, Substituting aluminum for heavy steel in Selected Countries, 1981 automobiles saves gasoline. Substituting it for glass or for steel packaging saves Aluminum Consumption Recovery energy in trahsportation and may allow Country Per Capita Rates easier, more efficient recycling. Yet primary production, from bauxite, requires (pounds) (percent) 20 times as much electricity as using alu Netherlands 21 42 minum scrap as a metallic feedstock. Italy 27 41 Bauxite and coal must be strip-mined, West Germany 45 33 and rivers are often dammed to generate United States 56 32 hydroelectric power for smelting. Dis- United Kingdom 20 28 carded aluminum containers spoil the environment. Because these problems France 26 27 are serious, and because aluminum will Japan 42 25 play an important role in any industrial Switzerland 34 21 society. aluminuin recycling is essential. Norway 42 20 The world is far from achieving the Sweden 34 19 technical potential for aluminum recy- Australia 41 16 cling. Although some analysts estimate Canada 36 16 that 80percent of aluminum can be recy- Austria 27 15 cled, less than 30 percent of that pro- Brazil 5 13 duced in 1981 came from scrap. Half the Mexico 7 10 recycled aluminum came from industrial Soviet Union n.a. 10 wastesscrap produced in the smelting or cutting and fabrication of finished World Estimate 7 28 products. 'Aluminum collected as a percent of cunsurnp The low worldwide rate of aluminum lion. SOURCES: The Aluminum Associatiun. Inc...4/ums. recycling is caused in part by rapid atm Staksistal limeyfor 1981(Washington. D.C,: growth in the production of durable 1982); U.S. Bureau ur Mines. Antral' Parboolt consumer items such asappliances. 1981 (Washington. D.C.: 1982).

120 Recycling Motenals ( l05) may be due to histoncally low energy mental sensitivity. yet it directly recycles prices. only 4 percent of the aluminum it con- Since energy accounts for 20 percent sumes and exports large quantities of of the cost of producing aluminum from scrap, which brings the total to 20 per- virgin ore, the progress made in recy- cent. Much of Norway's scrap finds its cling during the seventies can be ex- way either directly or indirectly to Italy, plained in part by energy pre( e increases. another sign of the importance of inter- (See Figure 6-1.) Great strides were national trade in recyclables. made in the United States, illustrating 11w Soviet Union. the world's second that modern society can adapt to in- largest aluminum producer, altogether creasing scarcity without sacrificing liv- recycled and exported only 10 percent ing standards. U.S. aluminum recycling as much aluminum as it consumed in has reduced hod: environmental pollu- 1979 or 1980. This low level may be at- tion and the need to construct costly new tributed to the complicated and highly power facilities, thus freeing scarce capi- centralized control of materials produc- tal for use elsewhere in the economy. tion and allocation and to energy price Canadajapan. the Soviet Union, the distortions similar to those caused by United States. and West Germany pro- U.S. price controls during the seventies. duce 60 percent of the world's alutni- These aluminum recovery rates can num. Australia, China. France. Italy, only provide a relative index of how well Norway. Spain. and the United Kingdom a nation has perfornted. The figures in- bring the total to over 75 percent. Italy clude scrap from fabricating mills, which produces half its aluntinum from scrap. undoubtedly overstates progress in each while West Germany and the United major producing country. Nevertheless, the dramatic differences. especially be- States produce one-third of theirs from tween countries with high tales of pro- recycled aluminum. Italy's performance duction and consumption, can be in- is particularly impressive because its per structive. capita consumption has long averaged Just tett years ago the United States less than half that in the United States ranked low inrecycling among the and 60 percent that in West Germany.33 world'smajor aluminum producers. Norway is the world's sixth largest alu- (See Table 6-5.) Subsidized hydroelec- minum producer and the fourth highest tric power and cheap coal kept electricity per capita consumer. The country is prices low. But coal price increases and often cited as an CURIO(' of ctiviron- cost overruns at nuclear power plants in Percent thealuminum-producingTennessee Valley and Pacific Northwest greatly in- 50I Sources: Resources for creased the cost of power and, thus, of the Future; World:much primary aluminum.34 These rising energy costs had a dramatic effect in this field: Recycling grew from 17 percent to 25-...... y..--1 32 percent in ten years 35 U.S scrap consumption jumped 17.7 percent in 1981. The most dramatic change came in aluminum cans. Only 15 percent of aluminum cans were recycled in the United 1955 1965 1973 1985 States in 1972; by 1981, over half were Figure 6-1. World Aluminum Scrap Use, recyck i.35 The United States recycled 1955.81 as much aluminum-can scrap in 1981 as

? ( 106) State of the World-1984 Table 6.5.Aluminum Recycling, Selected Countries, 1954-811

Country 1954 1960 1965 1970 1975 1981 (percent) Fiance 21 19 17 20 03 27 Wot German. 45 39 39 34 30 33 Italy 27 29 33 37 41 41 Japan 19 26 21) 28 15 25 United Kingdom 30 30 36 35 30 28 United Slates 18 16 17 17 26 32

World ES totnatc 19 16 17 17 21 28 ri hese 4oientrees represent 5( percent of %odd alunitnum production Rec)tleng rates represent secondary wow, including strap aluminum consun.ed to both prmar) and secondary production. and net scrap consumption sounces Data through 1970 from Leonard I., Fischman. World 3bsseml Trends andS Stipp() Problems (Washington. . Resources 'Or the Future. 1980). 1975-81 data lrom Alummum Siassaseal Review for 1981 (Washington. M(.: The Aluminum Association, Inc. 1982) the entire continent of Africa produced there." Similarly, opposition halted a in both primary and secondary smelters. dam designed to produce power for alu- This also means, of course, that the minum smelting in Tasmania." These United States threw away more recycla- actions may increase the availability of ble aluminum in the form of beverage affordable aluminum since theywill cans than Africa produced.3' force a more economical use of re- Norway's poor recycling recordis sources. probably due to its abundance of inexpensive hydroelectric power. Although the long-term migration of energy- Only 15 percent of aluminum cans intensive Industrie., to energy-rich countries such as Ni,cway may be a positive were recycled in the United States step toward a sustainable society, in the in 1972; by 1981, over half were re- current era of unattained recycling po- cycled. tential it presents a hidden pitfall.38 Sub- sidies for energy usewhether they come in the form of energy price regula- Desp;:ehigh energy costs, Japan recy- tions, government and development cles only about 25 percent of the alumi- bank financing of hydroelectric facilities, or environmental degradationfrom num it consumes. But per capita alumi- flooding, species extinction, and fuel num consumption was low in Japan until combustionunnecessarilywastere. the last decade. when rates climbed sources. sharply. Much of Japan's "consump- The largely untapped potential of alu- tion," in fact, is shipped out of the coun- minum recycling suggests that many en- try in manufactured products such as au- ergy projects planned around additional tomobiles. The Japanese mainly use primary aluminum production are un- steel cans and glass bottles for bever- necessary. Ten years of environmental ages, and so less aluminum scrap is avail- oppositionto hydroelectric develop- able than in the United States. Yet ment in Norway has restricted expansion Japan's primary aluminum industry has ofprimaryaluminum production seriously lostits abilityto compete.

.122 Insamfs Retycling Mattrutis (107) (Italy's industry is in a similar position. It the total aluminum production of both has tottered on the brink of collapse for West Germany and Italy in 1980 can be several years, and its secondary industry attributed to scrap imports.45 may be the only healthy segment that remains.") Japan generates electricity with oil, so power there now costs more In 1981, the Japanese produced than in most countries. Japanese pri- more aluminum from secondary mary aluminum production,, as a result. has dropped by about 25 percent us er metal than from primary sources. the last ten years. and the industry's losses in 1982 totaled over $500 million. Less than 20 percent of the industry's Yet European scrap smelters pose a pritnary aluminum production capacity. threat to the free trade of aluminum. in fact, is deemed competitive.'" Seeking lower scrap prices, their owners In 1981, the Japanese actually pro- argue for increased trade barriers to reduced more aluminunt from secondary strict scrap exports from their countries. metal than from primary sources. One- A trade publication of the secondary quarter of the scrap processed was im- smelter industry repons that "EEC ported from the United States: bringing !European Economic Community) sec- back parts ofI'4,yotas and Datsuns. as it ondary smelters are. .endeavoring to were. In the meantime. Japan has im- ensure that the export of high value and posed tariffs on imported aluntinutn ettergy-rich raw material is restricted by ingot and has pursued investment in pri- the re-introduction of export quotas." mary aluminum production in seven These quotas were removed by EEC countries. Japan's share in these invest- Countries in 1981 and replaced with a ments assures Japanese companies as less restrictive export licensing system, ntuch pritnary aluminum as the country after which exports of aluminum dou- used in 1982 (872,000 tons).45 bled.46 The importance of trade to the As with waste paper, international growth of recycling is clear. The "mar- trade brings a new and dynamic force to kets first, collections second" strategy the recovery of scrap alminum. Scrap will be defeated by effons to suppress moving across national boundaries in aluminum scrap prices. Similar efforts to 1980 totaled 820.000 tons, representing suppress iron and steel scrap prices have more than 5 percent of world aluminum historically plagued recycling. production. At 369 per pound, the value The importance of recycling alumi- ofinternationallytradedaluminum num cans is also clear., Fully one-quarter scrap amounted to almost $600 million of all U.S. aluminum production goes in 1980.44 into packaging, half of which is beverage Three leading consumers of recycled containers. Mexicans used about 6.5 alueninumltaly. Japan, and West Ger- pounds of aluminum per capita for all manyeach import large quantities of uses, while Americans used 6.7 pounds aluminum scrap. Japan imported as percapitaforbeverage containers much in 1981 as it used ten years earlier. alone." Although packaging can be an With primary production declining as a important means of protecting food and result of oil price increases, secondary other products, unless it is recycled such production in Japan increased 138 per- consumption would not seem to be sus- cent over the last decade, with as much tamable. as ..`0 percent of the increase made possi- The private sector has made com- ble by scrap imports. Twenty percent of mendable progress M collecting alumi-

123 ( io8) State of the World-1984 noun cans or recycling. One of the most Table 6-$. United States: States with exciting innovations in recycling is the Be vesagr Container Deposit Laws "reverse vending machine," a machine Refillable that accepts aluminum cans (rejecting State Bottles Cans ferrous cans, glass. or other unwanted objects), weighs the aluminum depos- (percent teturned) ited, and dispenses money or coupons in Or .gun r 19721 95 92 payntent. One machine in North Dakota l'crinoni :1973) 93 90 reclaimed 109 tons of cans in one year, lltaitie (1078) 93 93 and 20 reverse vending machines in Michigan (1979) 96 96 Denver, Colorado, paid out over Si mil- Iowa (1979) 96 90 lion in an 18 -month period. Sweden Connecticut (1980) plans to build and install an estimated Massachusetts (1983) .111111 .IIMPIP 10,000 reverse vending machines as part Delaware (1983) III MINNI. of an effort to recover 75 percent of the New York (1983) a.. .11 aluminum cans used in the country. This sootcEs: William K. Shlreman, Can and Batik Bills would save 10,000 tons of aluminum an- (Stanford, Calif,: Caltfomia Public Interest Re- nually (500 million cans), as much as search Group and Stanford Environmental Law Sweden imports each year." Society, 19B1): U,S. General Accounting Office. "States Experience With Beverage Container De- In the United States, the Colorado- posit Laws Shows Posstive Benefits." Washington. based Coors Brewery makes a special D.C., December IL 1980. effort to recycle cans: It has a contract with its aluminum supplier that provides posit laws, total litter has been reduced a discount in return for recovered alumi- by 35 to 40 percent by volume, and bev- num: Coors opened eight recyclinr; 1 en- erage container litter by 75 to 86 per- ters in Atlanta, Georgia, even before it cent. No state with a bottle bill has lost sold products there. The company each jobs on a net basis. Though container year collects over 50.000 tons of alumi recycling may reduce jobs in materials num cans in more than 20 states.49 production and container manufactur- Though it is encouraging that Ameri ing, it creates jobs in container collec- cans now recycle 54 percent of the cans tion, transportation, and reprocessing. they use, ccuntries and individue sates In Oregon, the U.S. pioneer in this pol- with container deposit legislation have icy. a net total of 200 jobs were created. made Mika moredramaticgains. In Michigan, the first state to test con- Deposits are now required on all bever- tainer legislation in a densely populated age containers sold in Sweden. Den- urban setting, 4.600 jobs were created. mark. Norway, the Netherlands. and sev- A nationwide beverage container law in eral provinces in Canada. Nine states in the United States would, according to the Unit4.4 States now require such the U.S. General Accounting Office, cre- deposits. and the recent addition of New ate a net total of 100,000 jobs. As an York. the country's second most popu- additional benefit, litter cleanup costs lous state, to this list represents major could be reduced: in Maine, they were progress for recycling. (See Table 6-6.) halved. For all these reasons, almost Return rates of both bottles and cans threequarters of the U.S. population exceed 00 percent in most states where favor container deposit legislation." the programs have been in effect long Promoting the use of aluminum con- enough to be measured, almost twice the tainers in preference to others might ac- U.S. national rate. tually conserve resources. The steel can, In almost all states with container de- when it is tin plated, is so difficult to Recycling Atatenals (109) recycle that even the rec ycling industry draft of its forthcoming "World Alumi- calls it "a can of worms."51 "Tin" cans. num Industry Study," preferring instead which are mostly steel with a thin coating to ask traditional questions about how of tin to prevent corrosion. are not easily much new electric capacity investment recyclable because the tin fuses with the will be required to run primary facili- steel. Most recycled tin cans, in fact. are ties." used as a catalyst in copper production. National governments, moreover. still The metal in limn is a( tually consumed seem interested ntainly in primary alu- in the process and cannot lie recovered. minum production. The response of the The aluminum can. which is readily re- Ministry of International Trade and In- cyclable. could beneficially replace steel- dustry in Japan to the high cost of pri- alloy or bimetal cans. and even glass. mary production there has been to move Both glass production and recycling bro- the industry to developing countries ken glass are energy-intensive processes. with cheap hydroelectric power. and unless a returnable bottle is re-used Secondary aluminum provides an al- at least ten times before being discarded ternative to environmentally trouble- or crushed. it offers no energy savings some additional primary aluminum pro- over recycled aluminum cans Replacing duction. But taking advantage of the the steel and glass now used for food alternative will require investing time containers with alumintun would thus and money in campaigns to enact con- save energy and materials." tainer deposit legislation. an assurance of free trade in scrap. and the introduc- tiott of energy pricing policies that re- Twenty reverse vending machines flect the real economic cost of energy, in Denver, Colorado, paid out over $1 million in an 18-month period.

IRON AND STEEL Continued growth in recycling will depend on both market development and The world steel industry now uses scrap scrap collection. international markets. for 45 percent of its irott requirements, especially in developing countries. could and many countries rate high marks for proside the impetus for increasing col- iron and steel recycling. (See Table 6-7.) lection in countries with high consuntp- Those with some of the best records tion rates. Investments in secondary Belgium and Luxembourg, Czecho- recovery can be encouraged by interna- slovakia, Italy. Spain. the United States, tional lending agencies. by nations that and West Germanyuse scrap for 60 to want to improve their balance of trade, 75 percent of the metal used in steel- by entrepreneurs. and by environmen- making, if steel mill scrap is included.54 talists. International banks could exploit But steel mill scrap basically just recircu- this opportunity to promote environ- lates in the production process. meaning mentally acceptable and economically that these percentages would be only sustainable growth with a technology half as large if only purchased scrap that produces aluminum for half the cap- scrap km.. fabricators and consumers ital of primary facilities with only 5 per- were counted. Post-consumer scrap recent as much energy. The World Bank, covery represents only one-quarter of unfortunately. has apparently all but ig- the iron and steel recycled, and W the nored'tis potential in the late-1983 United States is any indication, only 45 125 (Ito) State of the 1Vorld-1984 Table 6.7. Steel Consumption and Scrap Certain countries appear to have far Recycling, Selected Countries, 1980-82 worse recycling records than others in iron and steel. Among East European Annual Steel Consumption Recovery nations, Czechoslovakia, Poland, East Country Per Capita Rate' Germany, and Hungary consume scrap atrelatively high rates. The Soviet (pounds) (percent) Union, however, ranks as one ofthe low- Belgium.tit. 714 40 est users of scrap in the world, with a rate United Kingdom 715 35 half that of Japan, the United States, or United States 1,120 35 West Germany. Argentina, Brazil, China, Netherlands 723 35 and Yugoslavia consume very low levels Japan 1.387 31 of scrap. Necessity again appears to be at work, for countries with sufficient indig- Poland 1.162 31 enous sou:ces of iron ore do less recy- Czechoslovakia 1.607 30 cling. Spain 514 29 But using iron ore because 1' avail- West Germany 1.210 27 able may be a false economy. Scrap costs Italy 1.010 24 little more than iron ore and can be con- Sweden 1,096 24 verted to steel with much lower capital Brazil 291 21 costs. The most vibrant sector of the India 40 21 U.S. steel industry, in fact, is the "mini- Soviet Union 1,250 17 mill," which includes electric arc fur- China 99 9 naces. These use virtually 100 percent World Estimate 400 25 scrap, compared with 45 percent in open hearth furnaces and 28 percent in basic 'Represents steel scrap collected (excluding steel null scrap and including net exports) as a oxygen furnaces. Use of electric arc fur- percent of steel consumed; threelear average. naces has grown dramatically around the swam: Worldwatch estimates based on U.S. Bu. world, especially in the countries with reau of Mines,Minerals Yearbook. 1981. tot111 the highest recycling rates. The NUCOR (Wasl,mgton. D.C.: 1982).Statuhwal Abstracts. 1983 (Washington. DZ.: U.S. Got-eminent Printing mill in South Carolina exemplifies the Office, 1983), and unpublished data provided by advantage of building a "minimill" with the Bureau International de la Recuperation, Brus an arc furnace: The mill earned a profit

percent of the iron and steel that Percent 100 becomes obsoleteready for recycling Sources: Robert R. Nathan Associates; following consumer useis actually re- hut. of Scrap Iron and Steel cycled each year.s5 (See Figure 6-2.) 75 Moreover, this rate is only half as high as in 1955, when the high rates encouraged by World War II still lingered. 50 One measure ofthe lack of progress in iron and steel recycling, in fact, is the 25 increase in the stock of obsolete scrap. In 1978, the backlog of recoverable ferrous scnip in the United States alone to- i I taled over 600 million tons. Since then, 19_60 1970 1980 1985 it has grown to 680 million tons and is Figure 6 U.S. Iron and Steel Scrap Use expected to grow further.% (m a Percent of Scrap Generated), 196042

126 Recycling Alaienals (in) in 1982 during one of the worst years scrap industry,inwhich the United ever in the steel industry.57 States has the largest stake. In 1980, be- A valuable new iron ore reduction fore the worldwide recession devastated technique.directreductionof iron the scrap business, U.S. scrap dealers (DRD. eliminates coking and reduces en- handled more than $5-billion worth of ergy costs. The pig iron produced by scrap. about 15 percent of which was ex- DRI is even called artificial scrap. Many ported. In 1980, the United States ex- countries. includittg Brazil and Nigeria. ported more than I1 million tons of have adopted this technology. Total cap- scrap worth almost $1.3 billion, for 75 ital costs for direct reduction, however. percent of the world's net international run as high as for conventional steel pro- trade in iron and steel scrap." duction. Despite the advantage of scrap- U.S. steel-makers may have legitimate based production. Braiil still has one of complaints about unfair trade practices the world's lowest rates of scrap utiliza- in some steel-producing nations. West- tion. ern Europe, for example. provides ex- Nigeria has recently moved to elimi- tensive subsidies to steel-makers, many nate its dependence ort imported steel of which are owned in large part by gov- by investing in DRI. At a new mill, di- ernments. These subsidies are not re- rectly reduced iron is mixed .,:;th scrap flected in steel prices and therefore not in four new electric arc furnaces, with only permit unfair competition but also scrap supplying 25 percent of the discourage more-cost-effective produc- charge. The result has been unsatisfac- tion, meaning greater use of scrap." Just tory. however, since the total cost of as the defense of free trade requires the Nigerian steel is $880 per ton compared maintenance of open borders. it also re- with import prices of $315-450. Nigeria quires regulation of unfair trading prac- might instead have collected more of the tices. cars now rusting in junkyards around the Many metals are alloyed with iron to country and processed them in electric increase its strength, resistance to rust- arc furnaces. The cost of scrap-based ing, and ductility. Sorting, separating. steel would probably have been even and reprocessing these alloys has be- lower than the most favorable finished come a sophisticated business. Scrap steel import price and only 25 percent of processors now use shredders, flotation their current production costs." Thus. devices, melting furnaces, and other developing countries with or without equipment to prepare complex mixtures iron ore resources should find electric of scrap metals for recycling. An auto- arc production the technology of choice, mobile. for example. contains not only followed by direct reduction of iron ore. iron and steel but also copper wire and Developing countries and all nations zinc handles. Scrap processors now are not well endowed with scrap may think so proficient that virtually all the zinc in that investing in electric arc furnaces is recycledautomobiles is recovered. unduly risky. History has shown that These skills will have to become even scrap exports have been and could easily more highly developed, however, if recy- again be restricted. American steel-mak- cling of iron and steel is not going to ers have consistently sought to keep result in their contamination by other scrap prices low by lobbying the govern- metals.6' ment to restrict the export of scrap. Such Market development must be the first policies seriously diminish the prospect priority for recycling's promoters. Pro- foriron and steelrecycling.They motion would best be accomplished by threaten the $11-billion world ferrous stimulating investment in electric are

127 (112) Slateof the WorldI984 furnaces and removing tn.& barriers. of. In the first eight months of the pro- The need to conserve energy has been gram's operation, 33,000 car hulks were the greatest impetus to the use of scrap collected, compared with an average because of the quantities of energy em- 20,000 per year before the law." bodied in it. Eliminating subsidies for Though Norway's car deposit and energy production and use should be a Sweden's disposal law have apparently high priority for promoting iron and been successful, they would have been steel scrap recycling markets. unnecessary if there had not been artificial constraints on the scrap market. Sweden has essentially prohibited ex- Norway imposed a $100 deposit on ports of iron and steel scrap since 1927, and Norway permits export of scrap only new cars, refundable with a $50 when the would-be exporter demon- bonus for any car properly dis- strates that no market for it exists in Nor- posed of. way. The result is a greatly reduced mar- ketthatpermitspricefixingand artificially suppressed prices." Norway's Promotion of iron and steel collection iron and steel recycling rate remains will be much more difficult. Beverage substantially below the world average. container deposits help recover steel as On the other hand, Norway produces well as aluminum and glass. More im- iron ore, which in other countries has portantly, as mentioned earlier, they vir- reduced scrapuse." The automobile de- tually eliminate the use of the steel can. posit may have helped offset this factor. This saves resources overall. Flow con- The refund system reduced the cost of trol laws requiring that recyclables flow abandoned automobile scrap collection to publicly owned or backed resource re- and thus encouraged recycling. A similar covery facilities can hurt steel recycling policy could be applied to spur recyding just as much as they hurt paper recy- in iron ore-rich countries such as Brazil. cling. Monopolization of municipal markets for scrap collection diminishes the marketability of scrap by reducing economic incentives for its collection. Norway and Swedenhavebeen STEPS TO A RECYCLING praised widely for what have been called SOCIETY model iron and steel scrap collection policies. In the early seventies, 400,000 As the age of cheap energy fades and as abandoned car hulks littered the Swed- inflation, joblessness, and pollution in- ish countryside. A 1976 law required the tensify, sustaining material living stan- disposal of cars with authorized scrap dards in rich countries and satisfying dealers. In Norway. 50.000 autos had basicmaterial needs in poor ones been abandoned. with 20.000 more each becomes more difficult than ever. Recy- year being junked. Norway followed cling yields back much of the energy and Sweden's example and introduced its capital invested in materials. In this way, own disposal law, but applied a tax recycling conserves energy, fights pollu- rather than regulatory policy. Enacted in tion and inflation, creates jobs, and May 1978, the new law imposed a $100 helps put society on an economically and deposit on new cars, refundable with a environmentallysustainable develop- $50 bonus for any car properly disposed ment path. 128 fiery* Materials ( it 3) The seventies 'moved tyt ling's prat - fallen far short of achieving recycling's ticality and worthiapan and the Nether- potential. The glohal recovery rates of lands collect half their waste paper. Suc- paper, aluminum, and iron and steel cessful progcams in some Japanese cities could be doubled or tripled for each ma- have reduced the amount of land re- terial. But three difficult steps must be quired for waste dumps by 40 per cut. taken to collect recyclable materials and thus saving disposal costs and improving to develop additional ntarkets for them. the environment. Beverage container As a first step, consumers should pay deposit legislation in nine American the full costs of the materials they use. states has pulled recycling rates for bot- The world's forests have been cut faster tles and cans over 90 percent. In addi- than they have been replaced, a practice tion. Maine has cut its litter collection that makes wood cheaper now at the ex- costs in half, and Michigan's economy pense of future generations. Setting has gained a net total of 4,600 jobs. aside additional forest reserves would The development of a dynamic inter- make virgin pulpwood more expensive ttational trade in scrap paper, aluminum, compared with waste paper and would and itott and steel has shown that huge both assure the protection of some for- markets can be created for collected ests and encourage paper companies to waste. South Korea's ability to produce buy waste. As owner ofhalf the softwood 40 percent of its paper from imponed timher in the United States, the U.S. For- waste paper holds out the hope that est Service should consider reducing paper use can be expanded in increas- sales of trees for harvesting as long as ingly literate Third World societies with- waste paper is underutilized. out increasing pressure on forests. And because mills for recycling paper cost half as much to build as those using virgin pulp, recycling can reduce die debts The global recovery rates of paper, of developing t outlines. Large imports aluminum, and iron and steel could of alumistwn scrap by Italy and Japan be doubled or tripled for each ma- have enabled them to sustain industries terial. suffering front the high cost of oil-fired electricity. Spain and Italy have shown that they can compete successfidly in steel markets by using purchased iron The first step also requires a special and steel scrap lot half their production effin t to reduce energy price subsidies. requirements. And the United States, No single factor has increased recycling with nearly S1.3 billion annual earnings more in the last 30 years than the energy from exported scrap iron and steel, has price increases of the seventies. Recy- illustrated the tangible value of collect- cling saves energy, and industries adopt ing waste. it to cut energy costs; but when the price Countries that have inwd toward re- of energy is distorted by subsidies, in- cycling paper. alutninutit, and iron and dustries are less motivated et, recycle. steel have thus enhanced their competi- Titus when societies subsidize energy tive position in international markets. use by providing grants or loans for Recycling will become an even more im- darns and power plants or by applying portant factor in international competi- measures that hold the price of energy tiveness as energy and capital costs in- below replacement costs, they encour crease the expense of producing goods. age environmental degradation. To sub- Despite these gains. the world has sidize energy consumption is to subsi-

129 (11.)) State of the World-1984 daze the "throwaway society." an be applied at national or local levels. The second step toward a recycling These steps will not be taken simply society involves building world markets because they are logical or urgently for scrap paper. aluminum. and iron and needed, but because concerned citizens steel. Wealthy countries restrain the ex- insist that they be taken. Conservation- port of scrap iron and steel and seriously ists, unfortunately, have shown too little inhibit the use of imported scrap in de- interes. in assuring market pricing for veloping countries. The European Eco- energy and free trade of scrap materials, nomic Community, for example, re- though they have much at stake in these stricts scrap trade between its members policies. National and local government and nonmembers. Austria, Denmark. leaders have shown little willingness to and Sweden prohibit essentially all scrap take the difficult step of requiring collec- exports, and the United States continu- tion of recyclable materials, but the ris- ally considers limiting scrap exports. ing costs of litter cleanup and Iandfilling Few countries needing new steel pro- waste are bound to press them to do so. duction capacity will risk reliance on im- Industry leaders M individual countries portedscrap unlessscrap-exporting will increasingly be forced by higher en- countries remove the threat of scrap ergy and raw materials prices to consider "embargoes." recycling or face a future in which they The final step, one that will also re- cannot compete in world markets. duce environmental subsidies, promote The future of all society will be an un- international scrap trade, And soften the easy one if a major portion of the world impact of higher energy pr ices, demands is forced to live with a low or declining the greater collection of wastes. Con- materials standard. Materials recycling tainer deposit legislation can dramati- has become necessary if society is simply cally increase the return of beverage to maintain current living standards. But containers. Incentives, int rmation. or within this necessity lies the opportunity the threat of fines and nor.ollection of to improve the material well-being of all garbage can induce higher returns of re- the world's people, and to do so without cyclable material. A wide variety of poli- great cost to the environment. In this cies, in fact, will stimulate recycling and resides the great virtue of recycling.

130 7

Reassessing the Economics of Nuclear Power Christopher Flavin

The eighties were supposed to be a dec- world is using less than half as much nu- ade of booming construction and copi- clear power as anticipated. Projections ous electricity generation for the nuclear of future use have shrunk even more. power industry around the world. The Estimates for 1990 now show a nuclear Organisation for Economic Co-opera- sector only a third as large as once ex- tion and Development (OECD) pro- pected.' jected in 1970 that its member nations in The largest curtailments have oc- Western Europe. North America, and curred in the United States, where can- Japan would have 563,000 megawatts of cellations of plants have outrun new or- nuclear generating capacity by 1985 ders for nine years, but with only a few approximately half the total generating exceptions countries around the globe capacity these countries now have.' have cut back on their plans. The nuclear Over 100 nuclear power plants a year pipeline is now likely to run dry in most were expected to be built during the countries by the end of the decade. The eighties, many of them in the Third Financial Times Energy Economia, a news- World. letter of the international energy estab- Today, just a decade after some of the lishment, reported in early 1983 that rosiest of these forecasts were made, the "the day when nuclear power will be the world's leading electricity source now Many of the issues in this chapter are discussed in greater detail in Christopher Flavin, Atka, Power. seems to have been postponed indefi- The Market Tea (Washington. D.C.: Worldwatch In- nitely." stitute. December 1983). Nuclear power is plagued by many se-

Iv 131 I (116) StateofMe World-1989 rious issues that remain unresolved. in- in 1951 and a fivemegawatt light-water cluding safety, waste disposal, and nu- plant built by the Soviet Union in 1954.4 clear weapons proliferation. Something The efforts of other countries to de- much simpler, however. is giving the in. velop nuclear power in the fifties were dustry most of its current problems. In hampered by the superpowers' early mo most countries nuclear power is no nopoly of nuclear technologies and fuel longer economically attractive. Years of supplies. Among the governments that cost overruns have destroyed the eco- nevertheless launched substantial nu. nomic underpinnings of many pro- clear power programs were those of grams, and much slower growth in elec- Canada. France, the United Kingdom, tricity use has called into question the and West Germany, each pursuing its need for many nuclear plants now being own approach to nuclear technology. built. All indications are that nuclear Progresft was slow due to the unexpect. power's economic competitiveness con- edly challenging engineering required tinues to deteriorate and could lead to and to the difficulty that all countries had further cutbacks. Indeed, the develop- going from tiny prototypes to commer- ment of nuclear power may come to a cial plants. complete standstill by the late eighties. Private companies showed little interest in spearheading the commercialization of nuclear power, and so it was left to the U.S. Government to go where the Fortune 500 feared to tread. During the THE SELLING OF NUCLEAR fifties, the United States spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a Power Reactor POWER Demonstration Program in which large corporations built a half-dozen prow- Commercial nuclear power has a short type plants. Then a major effort was history. Although the atom was first mounted by the U.S. Atomic Energy fissioned in Germany in 1938, a decade Commission and nuclear equipment and a half later weapons of mass destruc- manufacturers to convince utilities that tion, nuclear submarines, and some im- nuclear costs could be substantially low. portant medical uses of radiation were ered. the only real "fruits" of the nuclear age. Still, utility companies demanded 'a Yet enthusiasm ran high. To many peo- guarantee that nuclear plants would be ple nuclear power seemed the key to the cheaper than the alternatives. In Decem- world's future. It would supply infinite ber 1963 General Electric and the Jersey amounts of energy indefinitely and Central Power & Light Company signed would remove many of the constraints a contract for a "turnkey" nuclear plant under which humanity had struggled for that General Electric would build at a set millennia. price, competitive with the cost of a coal- In the early fifties, both the United fired plant. For the utility there was little States and the Soviet Union greatly ac- financial risk, since it would simply pay celerated their R&D programs to com the agreed bill and then "turn the key" mercialize nuclear power. Many differ- to commence generation when construc- ent reactor designs were tested and tionwas complete.Thismilestone enormous technological strides were agreement was followed by eight similar made. One result was the world's first contracts, effectively launching commer- electricity producing reactors: a small cial nuclear power in the United States.5 breeder plant built by the United States The next stage came quickly. In 1966

132 Brosiessing the Economics of Nuclear Power 017) and 1967. the utilities ordered 51 addi- corned as an alternative to imported oil tionalnuclear plants,signing open- and as a way for developing countries to ended, cost-plus contracts that shifted propel themselves into the twentieth the burden of potential cost overruns to century. Exports of the technology were the utilities and their customers. By the vigorously promoted by the Interna- end of 1967 the United States had 28 tional Atomic Energy Agency of the times as much nuclear power capacity on United Nations and by government insti- order as it had in operation. Four U.S. tutions such as the U.S. Export-Import nuclear reactor vendors competed ag- Bank. Sixteen developing countries had gressively for new orders, and utilities nuclear power programs by the mid-sev- struggled to stay at the forefront of tech- enties. sotne of them nations that still nology. Nuclear power was seen as the relied on fuelwood as their major do- inevitable way to ineet future electricity mestic energy source.9 demand, which was growing at faster than 7 percent a year.6 This "bandwagon" psychology left lit- The development of nuclear powe, tle room for dispassionate analysis of the may come to a complete standstill economics of nuclear power. Utilities had little understanding of these plants by the late eighties. and the much more demanding engineering that would be required. Each new buyer was cited by the reactor By 1973, worldwide nuclear power ca- manufacture's as proof of the economic pacity had risen to 43,000 megawatts, soundness of their claims. The nish to provided by 115 plants. The United nuclear power had become a self-sus- States had half the total capacity and tainingprocessself-sustaining,per- Britain one-eighth. France and the So- haps. but not sustainable indefinitely.7 viet Union each had the equivalent of Beginning in the mid-sixties, U.S. three1.000-megawatt nuclear plants companies assisted by the government's and Canada, japan, and West Germany "Atoms for Peace's program aggres- only two each. But nuclear construction sively marketed nuclear technologies in programs were in full swing in a half- Europe, japan, and some developing na- dozen countries, and a dozen more had tions. More than a dozen countries pur- plans to begin soon. In the peak growth chased U.S. plants or signed licensing years of 1971-74, over 200 plants were agreements to obtain American nuclear ordered worldwide, approximately dou- technology. Today France, Japan. and bling the number of planned reactors. West Germany. which along with the Total capacity was expected to exceed United States plat) a prominent role in 250,000 megawatts by the early eight- the nuclear power industry, all build ies.9 plants based on American designs. With The 1973-74 oil crisis was widely so n the rapid growth of electricity demand as the final guarantee that nuclear power and the relative scarcity of indigenous would be the world's next preeminent energy resources in Europe. there was energy source. Western political leaders little challenge to the notion that the in particular saw nuclear power as the commercialization of nuclear power de- necessary high-techsolutiontothe served a high priority. stranglehold the Organization of Petro- This period was also marked by a leum Exporting Countries had on the oil great expansion of programs in the market. The Nixon administration's Pro- Third World. Nuclear power was wel- ject Independence aimed for nuclear

133 (118) Stage of the World-1984 power to supply haliof U.S. electricity by of 282 commercial plants in 25 countries the year 2000. French Prime Minister provided over 173,000 megawatts of Jacques Chirac undoubtedly spoke for generating capacityenough to supply many political leaders in the aftermath of approximately 9 percent of the world's the oil embargo when in early 1975 he electricity, or 3 percent of total energy. said, "For the immediate future, I mean (See Table 7-1.) In industrial countries for the coming ten years. nuclear energy the share of electricity supplied by nu- is one of the main answers to our energy clear power varies widely, from approxi- needs."10 mately 40 percent in France to 17 per- Today nuclear power supplies much cent in Japan, 13 percent in the United less energy than was expected in the States, 6 percent in the Soviet Union, mid-seventies. But it has grown substan- and zero in such nations as Australia and tially nonetheless. As of late 1983. a total Denmark that have decided to forego Table 7.1. Worldwide Nuclear Power Commitment, by End of 1983' Plants Ordered Plants and Under Total Country Operating Construction Commitment {number) (megawatts) (number) {megawatts) {number) (megawatts) United States 77 60,026 64 70.376 141 130,402 France 31 21.778 31 34.520 62 56.298 West Germany 12 9.806 17 19,516 29 29,322 Soviet Union 34 18,915 11 9,880 45 28.795 Japan 25 16.652 15 12.649 40 29,301 Spain 6 3,820 7 6,801 13 10.621

Canada 12 6.622 12 8.710 24 15.332 United 34 9,273 8 5.115 42 14,388 Kingdom Sweden 10 7,300 2 2.110 12 9,410 South Korea 1 556 8 6,710 9 7,266 Switzerland 4 1.940 3 3,007 7 4,947 Czechoslovakia 2 880 8 3,520 10 4.400

Italy 3 1,285 3 2,004 6 3,289 India 4 804 6 1.320 10 2,124 Belgium 5 3,450 2 2,000 7 5,450 Taiwan 4 3.110 2 1,814 6 4.924 East Germany 5 1,830 2 880 7 2,710 Brazil 3 3.116 3 3,116 Argentina 1 335 2 1,292 3 1.627 Rest of' World 12 5,205 21 14.044 33 19,249 World Total 282 173,587 227 209.384 509 382,971 lPreliminary estimate SovitcE: "The World LIU of Nuclear Power Plants," .Vitekar News. August 1983: Atomic Industrial Forum. "Historical Profile of U.S. Nuclear Power Development." Washington, D.C., March 1983.

134 lleatwsurtg the Economtcs of Nuclear Power 019) this power source altogether. In the next for nuclear power plants had risen 142 three years, about 100 nuclear plants arc percent between 1971 and 1978, or 13.5 scheduledtocommenceoperation. percentannually.Basedonthese which would boost global nuclear capac- figures, Komanoff concluded that total ity by 60 percent, Beyond the mid-eigh- generating costs for a nuclear plant ties, however, the picture is much less would soon exceed those for a coal plant clear. by a wide margin.l? The nuclear industry vigorously disputed these estimates, largely on the grounds that statistical analysis of the recent past was not a reliable predictor of COUNTING COSTS future trends. Since the mid-seventies, however, cost estimates for individual Thirty years have passed since U.S. nu- nuclear plants have doubled every four clear officials were quoted as saying that years, rising faster than prices for gaso- nuclear power would be "too cheap to line, housing, or any other major ex- metes." It WAS an unfortunate claim that penditure. Reactors completed in the the industry now wishes had never been early eighties will cost on average almost made. These words will haunt them $2,000 (1982 dollars) per kilowatt to nonetheless, for they mark the begin- build, over twice as much as coal plants, ning of a sad history of bold assertions And because of the high costs and long and unsupported analysis that led to construction times, thefinancing enormous uncertainly about the actual charges fora nuclear plant are now three cost or economic merits of nuclear times those for a coal plant and add ap- power. Even today it is difficult to find in proximately $500 million to the average any country a ftill and fair accounting of construction bill's the economic status of nuclear power. Cost estimates for nuclear plants in the United States have been rising ever Since the mid-seventies cost esti- since the first commercial plants were mates for individual nuclear plants started in the early sixties. Most of the have doubled every four years. early evidence of economic troubles was ignored by experts who assumed that costs would begin to decline as the technology improved. Utility executives sig- Some projects make these average naled their confidence by ordering 126 figures look like bargains. The Limerick nuclear power plants between 1971 and 1 plant in Pennsylvania is now budgeted the end of 1974enough to increase at $3.4 billion and the Nine Mile Point 2 U.S. generating capacity at that time by plant in New York at between $4.6 bil- nearly half." lion and $5.6 billion. Several recently But construction costs continued to canceled plants would have cost as much rise throughout the seventies, and in as $8 billion each had they been comp- 1981 economist Charles Komanoff pub- leted. Even the few economic "success lished the first detailed assessment of the stories" pointed to by the nuclear indus- increases. Using the utilities' own data, try, such as the Palo Verde plants in Ari- but carefully separating out the effects of zona, have suffered huge cost overruns inflation and the cost of borrowed that would be considered crippling in money, Komanoff concluded that real any other industry. Nuclear economics is (inflation-adjusted) construction costs not for the fainthearted. The annual cost

135 WO State of the World -1984 overruns alone equal the goverimient quent ly cited as a major problem. Care- budgets of many nations." ful analysis of the utilities' own data for Operating costs for nuclear power the 30-odd U.S. plants scheduled for plants, once expected to be negligible, completion in the mid-eighties shows have turned out to be another budget- that the electricity they produce will cost buster. A 1982 study by economists with on average from 10-120 per kilowatt- the Energy Systems Research Group hour (1982 dollars)." found that operation and maintenance 'Phis cost is 65 percent more than coal- costs rose during the seventies at an av- fired power and 25 percent more than erage annual rate of 18 percent. By the oil-fired power, the high cost of which early eighties. the average nuclear plant has often been cited as a major reason cost more than $30 million a year to op- for building nuclear plants. (See Figure erate, enough to add approximately 20 7-L) If all the electricity used by Ameri- percent to the generating cost." cans were to cost as much as that gener- The economics of U.S. nuclear power ated by these new plants, the country's have also been hurt by plants operating utility bills would rise approximately 130 on average at less than 60 percent of their rated capacity rather than the percent.is Enough information is now available 75-80 percent of capacity originally expected. A range of technical problems to show conclusively that new nuclear that have required plants to be run at power plants are no longer cost-effective partial capacity and to shut down fre- in the United States. Even if all the quently for repairs are to blame. Since unique safety and health risks of nuclear two-thirds of the cost of nuclear electric- power were removed and cost escalation ity comes from construction costs that were halted, a U.S. utility planner choos- must be paid regardless of whether the ing between a coal and a nuclear power plant is operating, low capacity factors plant based solely on economic consid- greatly increase the cost of power." erations would have to select coal. In ad- U.S. industry and government studies dition, nuclear power carries financial have been slow to recognize the declin- risks that frighten many utility execu- ing economic competitiveness of nuclear Cetus Per power. Cost estimates for individual Kilowatt-Hour plants continue to miss the mark by a Sourer: Worlduauth wide margin and are commonly adjusted Waste disposal & upward by several hundred million dol- 10 lut 1982 decommissioning lars each year. Industry-wide studies dollars) 111111111Fuel often make selective use of data or Operation and blithely assume that costs will be re- maintenance duced and capacity factors improved. Financing Many studies, failing to distinguish between real-cost trends and the effects of inflation, simply assume thatallin- creases are caused by inflation and high Direct interest rates. construction Yet even government and industry officials are now much less bullish on the economics of nuclear power than they Oil Coal Nuclear once were. In boardrooms and at regula- Figure 7-1. Average Generating Costs for New tory hearings, cost overruns are fre- U.S. Power Plants, 198$

1 36 ReillithiPigthe Economics of Nuclear Power (121) lives. S. David Freeman. a Director of Sussex, who concluded in a 1982 report the Tennessee Valley Authority. which that CEGB estimates for plants already once had the largest nuclear construc- built in the United Kingdom were biased tion program in the United States. con- in favor nuclear power by failing to cluded in 1982: "The cost of nuclear calculate .1'. full value of past capital in- power isn't just high. it's imp:edict:0)1e. vestments. The CEGB. MacKerron No sane capitalist is going tt, build some. found, hart not distinguished clearly be- thin'or which he can't derive a cost/ tween current and constant dollar costs benefit ratio because the cost is unknow- or even between historical figures and able."12 projections.'4 Outside the United States, the eco- J.W. Jeffrey. a retired University of nomic status of nuclear power is more London professor, conducted a thor- eillicult to calculate. In most countries ough economic assessment of British the data base is quite slim due to the nuclear plants and concluded that nu- small rwmber of plants in operation, so clear power is considerably more expen- statistical studies yield limited results. sive than coal-fired power. Although his Furdici i omplic acing the situation is the figures were at first vigorously disputed. fact that most nations do not release the the CEGB was forced in 1983 to recant cost figures for individual nuclear plants many of its earlier claims about the eco- that are essential for solid economic con- nomic superiority of British nuclear clusions. As in the United States, compa- plants. The case for light-water plants is nies and gm ernment agencies strongly still being made, but the tide seems to conunitted to nuclear power selectively have turned against the proposal. Many r ease data. The picture is somewhat observers agree with Jeffrey: "Nuclear tc.orky but appears to show high and power has not been economic, is not eco- growing costs worldwide. nomic and is likely to get more uneco- Fairly good data are available for the nomic in the future."22 United Kingdom, where the goserntnent West Germany has a larger and more is in the midst of a major decision on the successful nuclear power program than future of its nuclear program. The na- the United Kingdom does, but it has tionwide government -owned utility, the sufferedfrom majorcostoverruns Central Electricity Generating Board nonetheless. Official figures compiled by (CEGB). has proposed that the country the country's largest utility show direct begin building a new generation of light- nuclear construction costs rising sixfold water nuclear plants based on the between 1969 and 1982 while coal plant American Westinghouse design. Con- construction costs went up 3.5 times. Yet siderable controversy surrounds the eco- West German nuclear officials still main- nomic soundness of the proposal. The tain that nuclear power has a 30 to 50 CEGB now admits that the country's percent economic advantage over coal most recent gas- cooled nuclear plant power. This claim is now being used as cost twice as much to build as coal-fired justification for a government proposal plants. but it still argues that light-water to order as many as five additional plants plants can be produced at an attractive in the mid-eightiesin a country that price." has only ordered one plant since 1975." CEGB's analytical techniques The price of ro1 is quite high in West have come under attack in the course of Germany. so there is some basis for the lengthy hearings over the program. One claim that nuclear power still has a gen- of the most telling critiques comes from erating cost advantage over coal -fired Gordon MacKerron of the University of power, but itis unlikely that nuclear

137 (1221 State of the ll'orld--1984 power can overcome a capital cost mar- as official figurs indicate, but nuclear gin as large as the one that officials now power in France do s appear to be less admit to: Critics charge that German nu- expensive than coal-fired power. One ca- clear planners have consistently under- veat to bear in mind, however, is that estimated expenses and have used ac- although capacity factors have generally counting methods that do not measure been high and operating costs low, since the full costs. A study by Jurgen Franke 1982 many French plants performed and Dieter Vie !hues of the Freiburg In- poorly, which is likely to raise costs. stitute concluded in 1983 that due to the Only more time and experience will tell rapid escalation of construction ex- how economical France's ambitious pro- penses and interest rates, nuclear elec- gram really is. tricity now costs at least 60 percent more The limited information available for than coal-fired powers* other nations also shows substantial cost France is a key country in making in- increases during the last decade. In ternational comparisons of nuclear eco- Japan, average real construction costs nomics, since the French nuclear con- have gone from $350 per kilowatt in the struction program has an international early seventies to $1,000 per kilowatt in reputation for efficiency and speed. the early eighties (in 1982 dollars) ac- Whereas U.S. nuclear plants take on av- cording to utility industry sources. The erage eight to ten years to build, French official Soviet figures released in the lat- plants go up in less than six. Official est Five-Year Plan report that nuclear French figures published in 1982 show plants are 80-100 percent more expen- real capital costs rising just 43 percent sive to build than coal plants. Data between 1974 and 1981. This works out released by Ontario Hydro, the builder to an annual rate of increase of 5 per- of Canada's CANDU nuclear plants, cent, one-third the rate in the American show that construction costs went from and West German nuclear industries. $400 per kilowatt in 1972 to $1,700 in French planners maintain that nuclear the early eighties, a real rate or tucrease power 1s 20-40 percent less expensive of 6 percent after accounting for infla- than coal-fired power.ss tion. And in India the government now The scanty cost data released by admits that nuclear power is much more French authorities make it difficult to expensive than coal-fired electricity." draw conclusions, and there is no way to verify the official numbers. Most of the figures released are 4ggregate numbers Eighty-seven nuclear plants were compiled by planners with a vested in- canceled in the United States be- terest in the economics of their program. And as no data are available for individ- tween 1975 and November 1983. ual plants, it is impossible to confirm the figures or to correlate them with relevant variables. Also, Electricite de France Comparing nuclear economics inter- (EDF) has run up a debk of $19 billion on nationally in strictly quantitative terms is its nuclear program. It is quite possible a hopeless endeavor. Not only are com- that hidden behind EDI's complex ac- prehensive and reliable data scarce, but counting practices are substantial subsi- constantvariationsininflation,ex- dies for nuclear power.26 change rates, and fuel costs make it diffi- At least in relative terms, however, the cult to apply common standards across French program has been an economic national boundaries. Enough figures are success. The margin may not be as large available, however, to show that cost

138 Reassessing the Etonomics of 1"urlear Power overruns have been most severe in the Thousand United States, West Germany, and the Megawatts United Kingdom. But substantial cost in- 300 creases above inflation appear to have Source: Atom( beennear-universal--eveninsuch Industrial Pons* "model" nuclear countries as France 200 and Japan. This has badly hurt nuclear power's economic standing compared with its most direct competitorcoal- fired power. Perhaps most disturbdig 100 from a long-term viewpoint is that almost everywhere the situation seems to rating worsen over time. Many countries al). numummiutu pear poised to repeat the disappointing economic experience of nuclear power 1965 i970 1975 1980 1985 Figure 7-2. U.S. Nuclear Power Cautraitment, in the United States. J965-83 nuclear generating capacity of 83,000 megawatts. (See Figure 7-2.) This is 30 percent more nuclear capacity than the A U.S. FINANCIAL United States currently has, enough to MELTDOWN meet the electricity needs of any country except the Soviet Union or the United The first signs of trouble for the U.S. States. Meanwhile, U.S. commitments to nuclear industry came justafterits coal-fired plants had a net increase of growth binge of the early seventies. 58,000 megawatts.29 Eleven projects were canceled in 1975 The depth of the nuclear recession in and another 32 from 1976 through the United States is illustrated by the fact 1979. During the same period only 13 that only two plants ordered in the last nuclear plants were ordered. Many en- nine years have not been subsequently ergy analysts argued at the time that this canceled. And in the last several years a was a mid-course correction. a down- number of plants have been scrapped ward blip in nuclear power's healthy, that were as much as 10 or 20 percent growing future. They were wrong. The complete. In 1982 alone, reactors on early eighties have witnessed a massive which $5.7 billion had already been trimming of nuclear power programs by spent were abandoned, bringing the most of the country's utilities. Plans for total bill for such plants to $10 billion. 16 plants were scrapped in 1980; 6 in The only thing that will stop this wave of 1981; and a record 18 in 1982.28 cancellations is the rapidly shrinking list For some utilities the cancellations of facilities that are not at least half-built constituted a major shift in their plans. and, therefore, very costly to give up." TheTennessee Valley Authority Behind the cancellations lie funda- reneged on 12 out of 17 nuclear plants mental changes in the economic condi- it had planned to build and the Public tion of the utility industry. High inflation Service Electric and Gas Company of and interest rates have made it more New Jersey dropped plans for 5 out of 8, difficult to finance long-term, capital- All told, 87 nuclear plants were canceled intensive projects. Electricity demand in the United States between 1975 and growth has fallen from 7 percent per November 1983, with a net loss in future year a decade ago to between 1 percent

139 (124) State of the World1984 and 3 percent today. 'file impact of this As capital outlays soared and electric- sudden shift has been exacerbated by itydemand stagnatedthefinancial me fact that most utilities failed to fore- health of utilities deteriorated steadily. cast it correctly and have altered their The proportion of expenditures that planning several years later than would could be met using cash on hand fell, have been prudent. The long lead times, causing a rapid increase in borrowing large capital requirements, and soaring and stock issuance during a period of cost overruns of nuclear projects have high interest rates and low stock prices. wreaked particular havoc on utilities at- The stock of many companies began tempting to adapt to lower power de- selling at less than book value. Wall mand and uncertain economic condi- Street analysts have become worried tions." about the draining nuclear construction In recent years, nuclear projects have programs of utilities and many recom- become a dominant and damaging part mend against buying stock in such com- of utilities' capital budgets. Annual in- panies. The Merrill Lynch Company has vestment for nuclear construction has gone so Far as to publish lists of plants risen from $2 billion in 1970 to $19 bil- that itbelieves are ripe for cancella- lion M 1982, a fourfold increase even tion." after discounting for inflation (See Fig- Financial constraints have driven utili- ure 7.3.) Whereas nuclear plants re- ties with ongoing nuclear programs to quired only one-third of utilities' expen- great lengths to raise capital. Borrowing ditures for new plants in 1970, by 1982 short-term funds at usurious interest they soaked up two-thirds. And these in- rates and "creative financing" are com- creases have occurred despite the sub- mon. The Consumers Power Company stantial drop in the total U.S. nuclear of Michigan, builder of the troubled commitment since the mid-seventies., Midland nuclear plant. has issued com- The amount now spent each year on nu- mercial paper against the utility's oil. clear construction is more than one- gas. and coal inventories, sold and fourth the annual investment of the en- leased back the company's headquarters tire U.S. manufacturing sector and more building, and borrowed heavily on the than three times that of the automobile Eurodollar markets." When massive industry." emergency transfusions become commonplace, a patient is usually in deep Billion trouble. The inability to finance many Dollars nuclear projects has been the key signal 50 Sown: Edison EkamcMA; to cancel them. The fortunate utilities Amer. Public PowerAuto. are those that have been able to cut their losses and get out early. 20- One company that Investors are par- MI ticularly concerned about is the Long Is- other land Lighting Company (Liko), builder of the 820-megawatt Shoreham nuclear 10- plant in New York. That plant, ordered in 1967, is now scheduled to be completed in 1984 at a cost of $3.4-3.6 bil- iiiiiiliiillifili lion, approximately 15 times the original 1970 1475 1980 1985 budget. The Shoreham plant will gener- Figure 74. Fieeediteres by US. Utilities for ate at most one-third of the utility's elec- New Comrade( Plants, 1970.11$ tricity but its cost exceeds the book value

.140 ReasiessIng the Economics of Nuclear Pourer 1125 ) of Lilco's entire electricity system.. in- home stretch of 1982 like a runner cluding other generating plants, trans- poised in mid-stride." But the positive mission lines, and maintenance facilities. indicators the industry pointed to are the Electricity rates on Long Island are ex- number of plants entering service and pected to double in five years to pay for the power they generateeach of which the plant. If the Shoreham reactor is ever continue to lag earlier projections by permitted to operate, which is now in wide margins. No longer is the industry some doubt, it will yield the most expen- offering firm predictions of when it sive electricity ever produced by a large would stop living off pre-1975 plants central generating station." and start ordenng new ones. Perhaps the most optimistic projection made recently is the Department of Energy's Ribbon-cutting ceremonies for nu- 1982 "mid-case" projection for the year clear facilities now often serve to 2000, which assumes that another 25 nu- inaugurate a brave new world of clear plants will be ordered in the eighties. This projection is probably little higher electricity bills. more than a fantasy however. It is hard to find any serious analyst at this point who expects to see additional nuclear or- Nuclear cost overruns have put many ders before 1990." state utility commissions in a difficult po- The industry's "preconditions" for sition. They are caught between the de- the revival of nuclear power are usually sire to keep electricity affordable for dotninated by regulatory reform, higher consumers and the need to provide utili- electricity rates to pay for the plants ties with enough revenue to preserve being built. and lower inflation and in- their financial health. U.S. electricity terest rates. These issues hardly scratch rates have more than tripled in the past the surface of the industry's problems ten years after being nearly stable during however. The kind of fundamental the previous decade. Much of the in- changes that would really be neededa crease stems from higher fuel prices, but guaranteed reduction in nuclear con- rising nuclear construction costs have struction costs and a major surge in elec- become an increasingly important fac- tricity growthare far less likely. The tor. Ribbon-cutting ceremonies for nu- continuing financial crisis caused by the clear facilities now often serve to inaugu- remaining nuclear projects hardly cre- rate a brave new world of 30 to 50 ates a climate conducive to major new percent higher eltaricity bills, a phe- investment programs. nomenon for which the term 'rate shock" has been coined. In New England itis believed that the twin Seabrook plants could cause rates to more than double." THE OUTLOOK IN OTHER There is no indication of an imminent INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES revival of nuclear orders in the United States. The Atomic Industrial Forum. It is not just in the United States that whichrepresents theU.S. industry, nuclear power faces a less secure future opened a 1982 mid-year press release than was expected just five years ago. with the optimistic assertion that "the Although most governments with major U.S. nuclear power program enters the nuclear programsincluding France,

141 WO Stole of Me World -1984 Japan, and the Soviet Unionremain safety. environmental damage. and cost- strongly committed to nuclear power, effectiveness in licensing hearings and in there is a growing gap between rhetori- the courts. Project delays and cost over- cal and monetary support and the actual runs have been common. Meanwhile, achievements of the nuclear programs. electricity growth rates have dropped Behind the lagging pace lie diminished substantially and the country has been growth in electricity demand and a long under increasing economic pressure, list of technical. economic. and political which makes investment in major capi- problems. tal-intensive projects much less attrac- The total commitment to nuclear tive." power in Europe has risen only 10 per- Only one nuclear power plant has cent since 1978 and almost all the gain been ordered in West Germany since comes from France. The number of Brit- 1975, and eight of those ordered prior to ish and West German projects has risen 1975 are not yet off the drawing boards, slightly, while the numbers in Spain. due largely to political opposition and Swede's. Switzerland. and Italy have ongoing court battles. Only eight plants fallen. The changed outlook is well illus- are currently being built, four of which trated by the Organisation for Economic are at least 80 percent complete and an- Co-operation and Development's 1985 other three half done. The West German nuclear capacity projections. which have nuclear industry suffers from consider- been lowered by nearly two-thirds since able overcapacity as a consequence; 1970. (See Table 7-2.) component manufacturers in particular West Germany had Europe's largest are reportedly losing a good deal of nuclear program until the :ate seventies. money, and many workers have been and it has enjoyed strong support from laid off." the country's leaders. In recent years, With only about 8.000-megawatts however, political opposition in West worth of nuclear plants now under con- Germany has mushroomed.Major struction. West Germany will have less demonstrations have occurred at a num- than half the 45.000 megawatts of capac- ber of plant sites, including one near ity that had been projected for 1990. Hamburg in 1981 that was described by Preliminary approval has been given for the West German Interior Minister as a"convoy" of largelystandardized the biggest police action in the history of plants to be built in the next decade. But the federal republic. Opponents have whether this proposal will survive critics' also been successful in raising issues of argumentsthattheplantsarenot

Table 7.2. Projections Made in 1970-83 of 1985 Nuclear Generating Capacity in OECD Countries

Area 1970 1974 1976 1977 1978 1983 (thousand megawatts) Western Europe 202 175 167 125 84 73 United States 277 260 180 145 100 78 japan 60 60 41 35 18 22 Other OECD 24 18 12 13 12 10

Total 563 513 400 318 214 183 soracts: international Energy Agency. World &orgy Outlook (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co. operation and Development. 1982): Worldwatch Institute estimates for 1983. 142 Reassessing the Economises of Suclear Power (127) needed and would be more expensive that even many of the strongest support- than available alternatives is doubtful. A ers of nuclear power in France now growing number of utility officials are admit that from an electricity demand concerned about the rising costs of nu- standpoint, no additional plant orders clear power. With a 50 percent reserve are needed for at least several years.42 margin in most of the country's utility systems. they have little incentive to wire major new risks.40 Economic realities have proved Unlike West Germany. France is keep- tothe ing close to its ambitious nuclear plans m uch more hazardous of a decade ago. The country already has French nuclear program than polit- $0 nuclear plants in operation and 28 ical opposition. more under construction. France now derives 40 percent of its electricity from nuclear power and is on course to gener- The French nuclear program is also ate 75 percent by 1990. The French nu- becoming a burden on already strained clear program is supported by a strong capital markets. EDF has been forced to central government that allows little op- reschedule debts and borrow extensively position. Both the utility industry and on the Eurobond market to keep con- Framatorr.e (the lead nuclear company) struction going. The director stated in are adjuncts of the state. Moreover, the 1982 that the utility was in its worst nuclear industry is an influential compo- financial condition in $0 years. In 198$ nent of the French national economy, a high-levelgovernment committee and the income and jobs it provides have released a long-term study that con- become a strong political incentive to cluded that France should not order any continue. The staying power of French nuclear power was demonstrated in additional plants until 1987. Recogniz- 1981 when socialist President Mitter- ing the consequences this would have rand came to office calling the nuclear for an industry geared to handle six new program "excessive, even dangerous" orders per year, the government decided and then proceeded with business as usu- instead to reduce nuclear plant ordering al. supporting nuclear power strongly.41 to just two units per year in 1984 and Economic realities have proved much 1985: even this plan provoked warnings more hazardous to the F'rench nuclear of massive layoffs of nuclear workers and program than political opposition. Elec- the possibility that France's small nu- tricity growth has been gradually slow- clearsupplier companies could be ing since the late seventies. and in 1982 forced out of business.42 the government reduced its forecast of The Frenchnuclear program, al- growth in the eighties by 50 percent. though a success politically and in nat.- This means France would have at least row economic terms, has in a sense be- 1$ percent too much generating capacity come the victim of its own achievements. in 1990. Such projections led Electricit6 Its low costs are mostly attributable to its de France to introduce special subsidies large scale and to a dearth of political for electric heating and to set up re- opposition, but these very factors have gional agencies that will encourage in- made it difficult to adjust to a period of dustries to use more power. The decom- rising costs and lower electricity de- missioning of many relativelynew !nand. It will be increasingly difficult for coal-fired plants and the export of elec. the country's leaders to justify ordering tricity are also planned. The upshot is even two plants per year. Although in

143 (,28) State of the War Id--1984 the nineties is will almost certainly be the tion of plants in the Soviet Union began country thatrelics most on nuclear in earnest in the early seventies, and the power. France's full-throttle nuclear ex- nation's nuclear capacity grew from I,- pansion program may have slowed to a 600 megawatts in 1970 to 6,200 mega- sputter by then. watts in 1975 and to 17,500 megawatts The British nuclear program is in a (at 29 plants) in 1983. Nuclear power is ankh more anemic condition. Beyond completely run and controlled by the the 8.500 megawatts of nuclear capacity government and the Communist party, that now supply 13 percent of the coun- which have a tradition of supporting try'selectricity, only another 5,500 - electrification as a foundation of the megawatts worth are under construc- modern economy. State-owned compa- tion. much of which is near completion. nies design and build the plants, and The high cost of the plants built so far government officials determine in their anal the forecasts that electricity demand Five-Year Plans how many reactors will will grow little, if at all, in the next dec- be financed." ade provide ample economic hurdles to The Soviet Union obtained half as 41 revitalised nuclear construction pro- much electricity from its nuclear plants gram. The current Sizewell Inquiry on in 1983 as was expected a decade ago, whether tobuild an American-style and the rest of Eastern Europe has light-water plant will in effect provide a missed its targets by similar margins. verdict on the future of nuclear power in Nuclear power is nonetheless becoming Britain. That plan, which has been an increasingly important energy source severely challengedon economic throughout the Eastern bloc, already grounds, provides the only hope for ad- supplying 6 percent of theSoviet ditional nuclear orders in the near fu- Union's electricity. 12 percent of East ture. Without it, the nuclear industry in Germany's, and 18 percent of Bulgaria's. Britain would soon wit her.44 Official projections call for reactors to Programs in other northern European supply close to a third ,,f the region's countries are quite small and unlikely to electricity by 1990, which would require grow rapidly in the near future. Belgium at least a tripling of nuclear capacity 47 has five operating nuclear plants. Fin- In the past several years the Soviet nu- land four, Switzerland four, and the clear program has concentrated on Netherlands two; only Belgium, how- building the Atommash plant, designed ever, has additional plants being built. to turnout as many as eight standardized Sweden had a major program under way nuclear reactors each year. This un- until 1980, when a national referendum precedented effort at standardization on nuclear power was decided in favor of should in theory help cut project lead discontinuing the program and phasing times and reduce costs. It is also unique out all the country's nuclear plants by in that it is part ofan internationally inte- the year 2010. Although Sweden has grated nuclear program in which com- nine reactors in operation and gets over ponents made in various East European 30 percent of its electricity from nuclear facilities will be used in each plant. The power, only two plants remain under large Skoda facility in Czechoslovakia cotistruction.45 produces turbines, generators, pumps, The nuclea: power programs of the and pipelines. Plants in Hungary, Bul- Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are al- garia, East Germany. and Poland are also most completely independent of those in ilved. It is a strategy that should be in the West, but they have followed a more efficient than having each nation surprisingly parallel course. Construc- build its own plants from the ground up.

1 4 4 Reassessing the Economics of Nuclear Power (129) As with much of the Soviet economy, tricky, and another 13 are under way. the nuclear program is kept under tight The government has ambitious plans to wraps. Published information accentu- expand nuclear capacity sixfold by the ates successes and downplays problems. end of the century, at which point it Many examples have nonetheless would provide approximately half the emerged of technical and organizational country's electricity.* difficulties that have slowed develop- The first nuclear plants in Japan were ment. including labor-management essentially American-designed reactors problems and delays caused by builders licensed from overseas corporations. and suppliers. The nuclear targets in the Major research efforts in recent years current Five-Year Plan are reportedly have tried to establish an indigenous nu- being missed by more than 6,000 mega- clear technology and industry. a process watts. The Atommash facility itself is at that is now largely complete. In fact. least two to three years behind schedule Japan is now considered a leader in reac- and was the site of a major accident in tor technology and has taken the initia- mid-1983.4$ tive in joint ventures with American and Substantial cost overruns on the coun- West German companies to design an try's nuclear plants are conceded by So- advanced light-water reactor. As in other viet Luthorities although there is no evi- industries, Japanese companies appear deace that these have had a direct effect to be positioning themselves to compete on the overall program, which continues in the nuclear export market in case it to enjoy ample political support and revives in the years ahead. proceeds as rapidly as various technical Yet the continued development of nu- and management difficulties permit. The clear power in Japan is not necessarily true test of Eastern Europe's nuclear assured: Political opposition is growing power programs almost certainly lies as the number of communities affected ahead, since the scale of the efforts and by plants increases. Because it is a small the associated financial and technical country with one of the world's highest risks are growing rapidly. Only time will population densities, it is inevitable that tell whether the Soviet approach of mas- nuclear plants are built in somebody's sive centralization and the absence of "backyard," often the site of a valuable political opposition and financial checks fishery or beach resort. The accidental can lead to safe nuclear plants at a rea- release of radiation from at least one nu- sonable cost. clear plant has aroused enormous con- Japan has one of the largest nuclear cern. Also at issue are the frequency of developmen, programs in the world earthquakes, which could severely dam- today. Despite the painful legacy of the age nuclear plants in virtually all parts of atomic bomb and considerable public Japan. and nuclear waste disposal, a fear of radiation, the government has problem that will be particularly difficult made nuclear power the cornerstone of to resolve in such a populous country.50 its energy policies in the last decade. Japan, like other industrial countries, With 117 million people squeezed into has failed to meet its early nuclear goals. an area the size of California and with The target for 1995 has already been re- four - fifths of the country's energy sup- duced by 13.000 megawatts and there plies currently imported, nuclear power are indications that the recent recession is viewed as the only means of rapidly will delay the itudear program further.51 enhancing the country's security. Japan Cost overruns have been a concern to has 25 nuclear plants in operation, sup- Japan's nuclear managers but have not plying 16 percent of the country's elec- yet forced a wholesale reevaluation of 145 tip) State of the WorldI984 the country's nuclear goals. Another Third World countries. If a single power concern is that many Japanese plants plant provides more than 15 percent of have shut down frequently for repairs. a grid's capacity, the whole system will Yet the country's nuclear manufacturers, `crash" if that facility is shut down. its privately owned utilities, and its en- Using these figures, the IAEA estimates ergy officials are determined to forge that only India, Pakistan, South Korea, ahead. The pace at which they do this and Taiwan have grids large enough to will probably be determined largely by install a conventional 1.000-megawatt the operating and safety records of the nuclear power plant. Nuclear manufac- plants and by their success in dealing turers have responded by proposing with the waste disposal problem. "mini-reactors" in the range of 100-500 megawatts. But none is ready yet commercially. The estimated per-kilowatt construction cost for a plant of 200 megawatts is more than twice that of a NUCLEAR POWER IN THE I,000-megawattplant,making them even less attractive economically.s4 THIRD WORLD A deteriorating world economy since During the sixties and seventies, devel- 1980 has also led to a significant trim- oping countries had some of the bright- ming of the Third World's most active nuclear power programs. The capital in- est hopes for nuclear power. which tensity of nuclear power plants makes Third World leaders viewed as a way to them a burden to debt-strapped devel- boost national prestige and reduce crip- oping countries, particularly since much pling oil import bills, Industrial counts y of the money must be spent abroad, governments dispatched experts to pro- draining scarce foreign exchange. Sub- mote the economic merits of nuclear stituting nuclear import bills for oil im- power. In the early seventies, the Inter- port charges is not seen by most Third national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) World leaders as much of a gain. projectedthatdeveloping countries The "miracle economies" of the Far would have 550.000 megawatts of nu- East have made the largest Third World clear capacity by the end of the century commitments thus far. Rapid growth 40 percent more than worldwide oper- and sizable electricity grids in countries ating and planned nuclear capacity in such as South Korea and Taiwan explain 1983.52 why they are likely to have over half of By mid-1983 six developing countries the Third World's nuclear capacity by Argentina.India,Pakistan,South 1990. Taiwan, clinging to an aggressive Africa, South Korea, and Taiwanhad a nuclear expansion program begun in the total of 13 operating nuclear plants. seventies, has four operating plants and Three other countries are building two under construction. The pace slack- plants and several are considering pro- ened in 1982, however, when Taiwan de- grams. Still, the Third World represents ferred several reactors indefinitely be- just 6 percent of the total worldwide cause of economic constraints and a commitment to nuclear pOwer. And slowdown in electricity growth. South since the mid-seventies the nuclear plans Korea has two operating plants and of these developing countries have been seven being built, but it too has decided substantially reduced.ss against new orders in the early eighties. A key obstacle to nuclear development Leaders in these countries are strongly is the small size of electricity grids in committed to nuclear power, but a major

146 Ileasseistrig the Eonorows of Kuclear Power (131) improvement in economic conditions is nuclear plants in the eighties. but its now a prerequisite to building additional efforts are now on hold.58 plants.55 Latin America was a booming market The Philippines once had ambitious for nuclear power in the seventies, but it plans for nuclear power. but the coun- too has fallen on hard times. Argentina try's first plant, sited near an earthquake has had a small plant operating since the fault. suffered major delays and cost early seventies and two more are being overruns while the seismic design was built. Wrapped in the cloak of national- bolstered. Plans for additional ones have ism. Argentina's nuclear program has been scrapped. China has no nuclear enjoyed strong government support, plants. but some of the leaders in Beijing and the country hopes to have six oper- appear quite interested in this energy ating plants by the end of the century. source. Capital requirements have made Crippling debt problems. however, have them cautious about making major cotn- cast doubt on these goals. and anything mitments so far. however, and the coun- beyond the two now being built is un- try has only one small nuclear plant on likely.59 order as of 1983.55 India has the broadest range of nu- dear technology and expertise of any Third World country. lts program is Substituting nuclear import bills largely homegrown and much more infor oil import charges is not seen dependent than those of other develop- by most Third World leaders as ing nations. Four small plants arc oper- much of a gain. atingandanothersixareunder construction. India realistically expects to obtain 10 percent of its electricity Brazil, the world's sixth most popu- from nuclear power by the nineties. The early hopes of the country's nuclear lous country. has one plant complete scientists for this source of energy have and two under construction. The coun- not materialized. however. The plants try planned to have eight plants operat- proved to be expensive and have poor ing by the early nineties, largely relying operating records. Additional orders are on West German technology, but major not foreseen in the near future." technical problems and a lack of capital Among the Middle Eastern countries have rendered these goals meaningless. that once had ambitious plans for nu- Brazil will be lucky to complete the two clear power are Egypt, Iran, and Iraq. now being worked on. Mexico was a late- Each has seen a combination of eco- comer to nuclear power. but as oil reve- nomic and political problems seriously nues soared in 1979 and 1980, the coun- jeopardize its program. Iran's Islamic try's leaders announced plans to build revolution in 1979 killed an ambitious seven plants during this decade. Today and costly effort aimed at installing that vision has been obliterated by the 23.000 megawatts of nuclear capacity by country's debt crsis.6° 1994. Even before the revolution, how- Current plans indicate that develop- ever, critics questioned the size and eco- ing countries will have at most 20.000 nomic viability of the Iranian program. megawatts of nuclear capacity by 1990. Iraq's nuclear program came to a halt in which is only one-seventh as much as the 1981 when Israeli warplanes destroyed IAEA had projected in the early seven- the research reactor that was its center- ties." Yet even these numbers overrate piece. Egypt also considered building the economic viability of nuclear power 147 (1321 State of the World-1984 in developing countries. All the nuclear otlwr nations. FurthPr declines in the sales in the Third World so far were sub- next few ;ears are virtually certain since sidized by industrial country govern- few orders are expected. and many of ments or manufacturers. The day when the 20-30 plants not yet under construc- nuclear plants are sufficiently cost-effec- tion or on which work has been stopped tive that developing countries will buy are candidates for cancellation.. The usu- them at the full price is far off indeed. ally optimistic Nuclear Energy Agency of Beyond these problems lies the more the OECD concluded in 1982 that, fundamental question of whether nu- "There is some risk that the nuclear in- clear power is a wise use of scarce re- dustry will not remain commercially via- sources for a developing country. Nu- ble in a climate of uncertain and variable clear power creates fewer jobs and markets." Markets of any kind are requires more dependence on foreign becoming rare indeed for the nuclear in- companies and governments than does dustry.'! almost any other investment a Third Hard, cold economics is now doing to World nation can make. It is also likely to nuclear power what thousands of hot- serve a small minority who use electricity blooded demonstrators never could. It is while bypassing the majority, who rely slowly,painfully shutting down the on fuelwood and charcoal. Investing in world's nuclear industries. The only rural electrification using small-scale re- countries in which development is pro- newable energy sources or improving ceeding at close to the pace planned a the efficiency of wood cookstoves would decade ago are those where there is no provide far greater benefits. semblance of a market test and where Nuclear power was greatly oversold in nuclear power is pushed single-mind- the Third World. Humanitarian and edly by a strong central government. Pri- profit-seekingmotives became con- vate investors who have a choice and fused, and projects were pushed that had who must bear the financial responsibil- little hope of being economical. Most na- ity for their decisions are steering clear tions would in fact benefit if any projects of nuclear power. not yet built were swiftly canceled. And Important additional costs may fur- beyond the economic issue is the grow- ther tip the economic scales. The dis- ing realization that nuclear power plains posal of nuclear wastes and decommis- are inviting targets for military and ter- sioning of oldplantsarecritical :st attacks in politically unstable re- problems that have yet to be effectively ,.;:.I1S. resolved in any country. Each presents enormous health and safety concerns that could affect societies for generations. Providing remedies will inevitably add to the cost of nuclear power. So far NUCLEAR POWER'S FUTURE waste disposal and decommissioning are "uncounted costs" and their potential Worldwide, nuclear power development size can only be guessed. Official figures hangs by a much thinner thread than generally show the disposal and decom- most policymakers yet realize. The glob- missioning adding 5-10 percent to the alcommitment to building nuclear cost of nuclear power though unofficial power plants has declined by 31,000 estimates range up to an additional 30 megawatts since 1978, as major cancella- percent or more. The degree of concern tions in the United States were not offset over these issues is evident in California: by the more modest orders in some The state legislature there has on eco-

148 Iternsesung the Economics of Nuclear Power (133) nomic grounds banned the building of power plants of any kind. By increasing nuclear plants until there is a national the amount of light delivered by a light program for waste disposa1.65 bulb or the work performed by an indus- Some would argue that even if nuclear trial motor for every kilowatt-hour of power is expensive it is still essential as electricity used, the same energy ser- a replacement for imported oil. Al- vices are gained at less than it would cost though it is true that nuclear power has with a new generating plant.65 helped lower oil imports in some nations Many of today's efficiency investments particularly France and Japanin save energy at a cost of between lv and most countries its contribution has been 2v per kilowatt-hour, which is one-tenth negligible. dwarfed by increased use of to one-fifth the cost of electricity from a coal and energy efficiency. In the United new coal or nuclear plant. Utilities are States oil imports have fallen 50 percent beginning to take advantage of such bar- since 1978. but nuclear power genera- gains. in pan because regulators are al- tion has risen only 5 percent. Today a lowing them to include in the rate base small and shrinking fraction of the the funds invested, say, in home insula- world's oil is used to generate electricity., tion or a more efficient air conditioner, and the oil versus nuclear equation is just as they do investments in new-power largely mo01.64 plants. A 1983 survey of 120 U.S. utilities by the Investor Responsibility Re- search Center found that 75 percent have formal energy efficiency programs. Cold economics is now doing to Collectively the utilities surveyed esti- nuclear power what thousands of mate that improved efficiency will re- hot-blooded demonstrators never duce their need for new generating ca- could. pacity by 30,000 megawatts over the next decade at a cost of $6.6 billion. or less than one-sixth the cost of equivalent power from a new nuclear plant 66 The choice between coal and nuclear These fundamental changes in the power. as usually posed. is not an attrac- economics of electricity are greatly ex- tive one. Coal-caused air pollution has panding the list °futilities' options. This steadily increased in many countries, broader context is likely to determine producing new evidence of health and nuclear power's future. Donald Jordan, environmental damage. Air pollution is president of the Zdison Electric Insti- shortening the lives of millions of peo- tute, said in 1983: "The huge construc- ple, particularly in developing countries tion program we face has damaged our that cannot afford pollution controls. industry and our company. The best Recently, acid rain and the threat of cli- thing for us would be no growth." En- mate change through the greenhouse ergy conservation programs have caught effect were added to the list of coal- on more slowly outside the United related ills and appear much less open to States, but many are now beginning. simple technical fixes. Throughout virtually the entire indus- The world's energy options. however. trial world electricity growth rates have are not limited to a choice between nu slipped from the 6-8 percent annual clear power and coal. The biggest rates of the early sevemief to between 1 change in the utility industry in recent and 4 percent today. In much of north- years has been the new role of"end-use" ern Europe, electricity use could actually energy efficiency as an alternative to new dedine.67 149 (IP) State of the 11'orld-1984 When new generatingcapacityis of nuclear development appears to de- needed, utilities will have many more cline in direct proportion to the degree options than when they last ordered of responsibility and risk the private sec- plants. Promising renewable sources of tor is required to assume. electricityincludesmall-scale hydro- If an overriding national goal is the power, geothermal energy, biomass en- expansion of nuclear power, a centrally ergy, wind power, and photovoltaic solar planned energy program appears best. energy. In addition, cogenerationthe However, providing energy services at combined production of heat and power the least cost and ensuring adequate is a rapidly growing alternative to cen- capital for non-energy investments make tral power plants. The cost of these en- a centralized commitment to nuclear ergy sources today ranges from just power much less attractive. Even rela- below to substantially higher than the tively successful programs are encoun- cost of power from new coal or nuclear tering cost overruns that cannot be plants. But the cost of the new sources is entirely short-circuited via central plan- declining while those of coal and nuclear ning. Many will pay for their "success" are still rising. (See Table 74.) In addi- with high electricity rates and scarce cap- tion, many alternative energy projects ital for years to come. can be built on almost any scale and The broad range of alternatives avail- plans quickly modified if demand shifts, able and the pace at which the utility in- an important advantage given utility dustry is changing make a balanced approach more important thzn ever. Ade- forecasters' poor recordforprojec- tions." quate power at the lowest feasible price is the most sensible overall goal, with an Nuclear power is going to find it hard internal accounting of the environmen- to stay alive in the emerging competitive tal costs associated with each energy economic climate. In the United States source. If nuclear power does not pass most utilities now state openly that they this market test, which it may not, it will do not even consider it in their plans for be replaced by more-appropriate energy new generating capacity for the next sources. decade. In other countries the strength Nuclear power's economic problems Table 7-3. Estimated Cost of Electricity are not about to disappear. Costs con- From New Plants, 1983, With Projections tinue to increase everywhere and high for 1990 (in 1982 dollars) interest rates and tight capital markets are likely to remain, even with a vigorous Elnerp Source 1983 1990 economic recovery. Arguments over the economics of nuclear power are bound (cents per kilowatthour) to grow more heated as cost increases begin to affect electricity consumers di- Nuclear 10-12 14-16 rectly and as nuclear industries, starved Coal 5-7 8-10 for new orders, pressure for more sup- Small Hydropower 8-10 10-12 port. Cogeneration 4-6 4-6 The question now is not whether to Biomass 8-15 7-10 make a few small adjustments to encour- Wind Power 15-20 6-10 age a thriving industry, but whether to Photovoltaics 50-100 10-20 introducefundamental institutional changes and new economic subsidies to Energy Efficiency 1-2 3-5 prop up a dying business. Leaders in socitca worldwatch Institute. many countries will be tempted to mud- Ileastetstag the Economics of Nuclear Power (135) die through, making one decision at a in nuclear power and fail to see clearly time and so wading gradually into a the economic burden it has become.A financial quagmire. This could b. the basicbusinessprincipleholdsthat most costly approach of all. Many utili- money-losing enterprises should not be ties in the United States have dung to continued in an attempt to recover early nuclear projects long after their eco- losses if more promising investment op- nomic rationales had turned to dust. In portunities are available. The this at the end, the plants were canceled, but hand to decide whether nuclear power often several }ears and hundreds of mil- programs have reached this point. Many lions of dollars later than would have nations would benefit by cutting their been prudent. losses and moving on to more-produc- National leaders continue to be ines tive endeavors. merited by the once-great hopes placed

151 8

Developing Renewable Energy Christopher Flavin Sandra &lel

Efforts to develop renewable energy soon joined by research efforts in univer- sources have unfolded at an unprece- sity and corporate laboratories. R&D dented scale and pace since the 1973 oil programs covered everything from ge- embargo. In the early seventies, renew- netic research aimed at developing bet- able energy was in a much weaker posi- ter fuel-producing crops to large solar tionthansyntheticfuels,nuclear demonstration projects built by private breeder reactors, and fusion power, en- companies with government funding. ergy sources in which great hope had Not all the projects met their objectives, been placed and on which much govern- but the successes far outweighed thefail- ment funding had been lavished. The ures and helped pave the way for future many disappointments and delays plagu- progress. ing these heavily funded technologies In the development of any new tech- since the late seventies are warply con- nology thereisa natural evolution trasted by rapid progress made in devel- driven by economic and political developing a wide range of renewable energy opments as well as technical change, sources. New inventions often languish in thelab- Renewable energy development was oratory for years before their commer- stimulated by major new government re- cialpotentialisrecognized,capital search and development (R&D) pro- raised, and markets developed. Several grams in the mid-seventies, which were renewable energy sources are now cross- ing this critical threshold, entering a Many of the issues in this chapter are discussed in greater detail in Dantei Deudney and Christopher stage of explosive growth that will dwarf Flavin,RenewableEnergy. The Power toChoose(New past progress. The momentum estab- York: W.W. Norton & Co.. 1988). lished in the past decade appears suth-

152 Developing Renewable Energy (137) cient to overcome the negative effects of tial. Other major sources. such as hydro- stagnant oil prices, high interest rates, power, methane generators. solar water and diminished government support. heaters, and energy crops. will be dealt with in this report in subsequent years.

Renewable energy sources provide approximately 18 percent of the world's energy, mainly in the form FARMING THE WIND of hydropower and wood fuel. Wind power has moved to the forefront of the renewable energy scene in some Since 1980. nrivate companies have countries in the past few years.2 Al- decisively taktthe lead from govern- though simple wind pumps have been usr 3 for over a millenntenn to lift water ments in the development of renewable for agricultural and household uses. energy. According to International En- wind power development in the early ergy Agency data for 17 industrial coun- eighties has been dominated by a new tries, governments spent $1.2 billion on form of wind power: centralized wind- renewahle energy R&D in 1981 and in- electric systems operated by or for utili- dustry spent $1.4 billion; total annual ties. "Wind farms''clusterings of tur private investment in the actual develop- hires connected to the electric gridare ment of renewable energy in these coun- now generating powet commercially in tries probably approached $10 billion in California and a few other areas. 1983.1 Surprisingly, investments rose Harnessing the wind to generate elec- consistently during the world% ide reces- tricity dates hack to 1890. and wind gen- sion of the early eighties. With the gov- erators were widely used to electrify ernment spending cutbacks, the private farms in the early part of the century. sector is now leading the way in renew- About 20.000 wind whines are used able energy development. today at fire lookouts and remote air- Today. renewable energy sources pro- fields and on isolated ranches ad vide approximately 18 percent of the c tstal buoys, When energy prices world's energy. mainly in the form of hegan rising in the seventies. the wind hydropower and wood fuel. That figure power industry made only fitful progress has risen only slightly since 1973. but at first. Gradually the technology im- more rapid growth is likely in the years proved with the help of government- ahead. The list of itnport ant renewable fundedresearchanddevelopment. energy sources will grow to a half-dozen Aerospace engineers worked to develop or more. Although none of these will be wind machines with blades as long as a a cheap panacea, eliminating the' need jumbo jet's wings and with generating for oil overnight. collectively they ap- capacities as high as 5.000 kilowatts. pear capable of meeting tnany of the enough to supply power to over 1.000 modest additional energy needs that will modern homes. arise during the next decade. The re- At least eight giant wind machines newable energy sources discussed in this have heen erected in the United States.. chapterwind power. wood fuel. geo- and others have gone up in Canada. thermal energy. and photovoltaic solar Denmark. the Netherlands. the Soviet cells--are among the energy sources in Union, Sweden. the United Kingdom, which recent progress has been substan- and West Germany. Success in these

1 ,53 1138i Stat, ofthe World-1984 ellorts has been 'nixed. Some wind ma- Table 8.1. California; Commercial chines have blown over and some gener- Wind farms ;,stalled, by Location, ators have burned outthe usual prob- by End of 1983' lems of a new technologyand efforts Generating arc being made to reduce the cost of the location Machines Capacity wind turbines and improve thei. : iabtl- ity. Employing aerospace designs and (number) (megawatts) computer controls. these giant machines Manion' Pass 2.143 142 require world-class engineering. It will Tehachapi 1 637 102 be several years before they are a viable Mountains coninsercial technology." San Gorgonio 603 34 Meanwhile, business interest in wind Pass power blo.ssomed. A 1981 survey found 14fnjave 150 18 that 110 U.S. utilities had wind energy Salinas Valley 80 4 research programs, and many have in- stalledexperimental machines. 1 he Total 4.613 300 world'sfirstcommercial wer ifarm 'Preliminary estimate. begat; generating power in New Hamp- soritcrs. C.1;tfornta Energ) Commission. "large California Wind Projects Installed in 1981 and shir in 1981, and the first municipal 1982." and "large-Scale California Wind Projects wind farm was installed in Livingston, Planned for 1983.- Sacramento. Calif. unimb- Montana, in 1982.5 lashed. 198 Since 1982, however, all these efforts have been overshadowed by those in complete by the late eighties include 8,- California. Blessedwith mountain 600 wind machines with a generating ca- passes that are ideal wind fiirm sites, this pacity of about 1,500 megawatts.' The state is far and away me world's wind California Energy Commission's goal is farm pioneer. Beginning in the late sev- for the state to have 4,000 megawatts enties, the state governmem conducted installed by the end of the century, thorough wind resource assessments, enough to supply 8 percent of the state's offered generous wind energy :ax cred- electricity. its, and required utilities to buy power Much of the early work in developing from wind farms at a competitive price. wind farms in California is being carried Rapidly rising electricity prices provide out by small innovative firms formed added incentive m a state where utilities specifically to tap this power source. The still depend heavily on oil- and gas-fired companies have contracts with utilities power generation. to supply wind-generated electricity at The result was a wind farm boom that the same price it would cost the utility to some have likened to the California gold get the power from another source. The rtishof 1849. Starting almost from U.S. Windpower Company, one of the snatch. developers installed 900 ma- most successful developers, is one-third chines at 20 separate locations in 1982. of the way toward its goal of providing Surveys indicate that 4,613 wind tur- 60 megawatts of generating capacity for bines with a total generating capacity of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. 300 megawatts will have been installed The small wind energy entrepreneurs by the end of 1983, enough to meet the typicallyraisetheir ownfinancing needs of over 30,000 households. (See through limited partnerships and lease Table 8 -1.) Three-quarters of them we e the land on which the machines are con- installed in 1983 alone. Wind farms now structed. Aided by generous federal and in the planning stage that should be state tax incentives, such firms can invest

1.54 Developing Renewable bulgy (139) in tie.. power solaces Mai mime. will dotted. Laige-scalc assembly-line pro- tv,i develop on their own. For the utili- duction of wind machines should begat ties. the arrangement is an almost risk- soon. putting wind power about where free way of adding a new power source. theautomobileindustrywas when For the investors* a healthy tax ciedii is Hem. Ford introduced the Model T. available, along with revenues from the The resulting machines are likely to be electricity sales. As die technologies im more reliable and less expensive. Gradu- prove and wind-generatedetc.( (nc ti. al!y develop rs are ordering larger wind becomes cost-competitne with comet:- machines and 't may be only a few more 111mA sourcm the ir,.( credits wilt no .ears before trulti-megawatt machines longer be tie( essars.7 are used coinmeirially. Preliminary con- California's wind farms have devel- tracts have been signed to set up such oped so quickly that the wital machine wind farms. industry is still catching up Since the The econo:.nc verdi.1 on wind farms is large machines are not commercial!y in. If well-designed machines are placed ready. developers have relied on medi- at windy sites.. electricity can already be um-sited mimic. with generating ca- generated for as little as 100 per kilo- pacities of between 30 and 100 kilowatts. watt-hour. In parts of 17.alifornia. the So rapid is the growth that more tur- U.S. Midwest, northern Europe. and [inv.% were bath in the United States in many developing countries where wind speeds average at least 12 miles per hour 1982 and 1983 than in the previous ten year: combined. Imported machine.. and where oil-generated electricity is common. wind farms are close to being primarily from the Netherlands and Bel- economically viable now. Studiesin gium, filled the gap and (-urgently supply Europe and the United States indicate 10 percent of California's wind power that later generations of mass-produced market Tbe state is serving as a major machines will be able to produce elec- stimulus to the wind turbine industry tricity at 3-7e per kilowatt-hour, making woildwide.9 them commercially viable without special tax credits. By the nineties wind farms are likely to have an economic ad- Wind farms now in the planning vantage aver coal and nuclear power stage include 8,600 wied machines plants ir. many parts of the world. In the with a generating capacity of about meantime, work is needed to further im- 1,500 megawatts. prove mantle performance and reliability.") The environmental effects of wind machines are a potential constraint on the Modern wind turbines include the lat- future of this renewable energy source. est in transmissions, i omputer controls. '[he availability of inexpensive land far and s.nthetic materials. 'Fite wind farms from housing developments is key to have not been without technical prob- wind farm acceptability. A "farm" gener- lems, however. Man. machines have had ating power equal to a 1,000-megawatt to be shut down temporarily idt repairs, power plant would cover approximately and important lessons continue to be 82 square kilometers of land. Meeting learned? The most basic one is that a California's goal of providing 8 percent simple, rugged wind machine is likely to of the state's generating capacity with hold up the best, and some of the sophis- wind farms requires the placement of he- ticated, efficient designs have been aban- tween 10,000 and 100.000 machines on

155 t Lot State of the World-1984 approximately 615 squire kilometers. vestment risk, tax incentives stimulate Yet this area is just two-tenths of 1 per- the early stages of wind power develop- cent of the state's land. Based on such ment. So far, most government support calculations. countries with ample wind has been funneled into R&D programs, should be able to get 10-25 percent of which are necessary but not sufficient to their electricity from this resource with- create a viable wind farm industry. Wind out infringing on land needed for agri- resource surveys are alsoessential. culture or housing.' 1 Those done in California, for example, Noise and safety are additional envi- revealed an energy source larger than ronmental concerns. Annoying sounds anticipated and were the catalyst for the and inaudible vibrations have caused state's wind farm boom, problems with sonic experimental wind Today economics and politicsmore machines. Residents living near Al- than resource or technical limitsare taniont Pass in California, site of the constraining wind power development. world'slargestprojects, complained In California, the expected boom in about the incessant "swooshing" sound. 1983 was slightly restrained by delays in and their land finally had to be pur- extending the state's renewable energy chased by wind power developers. In tax credit. Oil price declines and the re- 1983, environmentalists fought a pro- sultant lowering of the "buy-back rate" posed wind farm to be located near the that wind developers receive from utili- scenic northern California coast, Proper ties have also slowed the progress. Since land use planning could prevent these mid-1983 wind farming efforts have ac- problems. Wind farms clearly should be celerated, however, and several thou- shed discriminately. and there are plenty sand machines should be installed in the of good locations where conflicts should next few years. Wind power is shaping not arise.'2 up to be a majiir energy success story of California's wind farms have already the eighties. gained worldwide attention and are likely to stimulate similar projects in other countries that can benefit from the technical and institutional lessons of these pioneers. In the Netherlands. the THE RESURGENCE OF WOOD national electricity association is developing a 10-megawatt experimental farm India and the United States, far apart on and plans to be generating 7 percent of the economic spectrum, have ,t least the country's electricity with wind power one thing in common: They now burn in the year 2000. Experimental wind approximately equal amounts of fuel- farms have also been started in Denmark wood. Yet in the United States the ISO and Sweden, and several other northern million tons of fuelwood used annually European countries have similar plans. represents only 3 percent of energy con- One of the most innovative is a British sumption, whereas in India this same plan to create offshore "farms" in the amount supplies one-fourth the coun windy North Sea, supported by plat- try's energy.14 forms anchored to the sea floor." These two countries highlight a strik- Government support is a prerequisite ing dichotomy in world fuelwood use: for the successful early development of overuse in the developing world, where wind power, The advances made in Cali- fuelwood is a necessity in ever shorter fornia would not have been possible supply, and great underuse in the indus- without tax credits. By reducing the in- trial world, where despite its abundance

156 Developing Renewable Energy (141) wood was largely supplanted by other mary energy from wood, nearly all of energy sources in the early twentieth which is used in the forest products in- century. For most Third World resi- dustry. Burning wood for space heating dents, fuelwood is the only viable cook- has been limited to about 3 percent of ing fuel. Oyer 100 million of these peo- Canadian homes, although the residen- ple cannot get enough wood to cook tial wood market is much stronger in their food and over a billion are meeting some eastern provinces where wood fuel needs only by men tilting and dep- supplies are nearer to towns. On Prince !cling their wood resources. (As dis- Edward Island. Canada's smallest prov- cussed in Chapter 5, massive tree plant- ince and the one most heavily dependent ing is the only hope of averting this on oil. about half the rural homes are growing Third World energy crisis over now heated with wood. The govern- the coming decades.) ment's Forest Industries Renewable En- Vet in many industrial countries fuel- ergy Program, begun in 1978 to encour- wood use has only scratched the surface age the wood products industry to 01 itgimential. Millions of tons of wood replace fossil fuels with wood wastes, waste and low-quality timber go unused had such a successful first three years each year in the forest-rich countries of that it was extended through 1986 and North Americ,i and Europe. Now. after a its budget was tripled to $288 million. century-long decline when cheap, abun- Canada's $30-million wood energy re- dant fossil fuels dominated, wood is edg- search program is focused on displacing ing its way back into the energy budgets 10 percent of fossil fuel use by the year of industrial nationi. 2000.17 Sweden, with one of the highest oil imports per capita in the world, has given wood a prominent roIe in its plans India and the United States now for a inure self- sufficient energy future. burn approximately equal amounts Aiming to halve oil consumption by 1990, Sweden plans to get 15 times as of fuelwood. much energy from fuehvood, wood chips, and forest residues as it did in 1980. Adding energy from pulp-mill In the United Stales, the decisions of wastes should bring wood's projected millions of homeowners and scores of 1990 cont ribution 10 12 percent of total companies are sparking wood energy's energy supplies, nearly half oil's share. 11 revival. After falling from 75 percent in the government's plans to reap energy 1870 to 2 percent in 1973, wood's share from tree plantations are even modestly 'If national energy use is now up to 3 successful. wood will replace oil as the percent and climbing, In 1982, indus- leading energy source before the end of tries accounted for 60 percent of wood the century .1'1 Finland, too, is investigat- energy consumption: homes and small ing "energy forests ". -the planting of businesses burned the rest. Although in- willow and other fast-growing, noncom- dustrial wood energy consumption has mercial species mainly on marginal been rising for decades. it is the use by lands. Estimating that wood waste could homeowners that has changed dramati- replace up to 30 percent of its oil im- cally. Since 1973 wood energy use in the ports. Finland has resolved to strive for residential sector has more than dou- 40 percent energy self-sufficiency by Wed.'s Annual sales of residential wood 1990.16 stoves increased ninefold between 1972 Canada derives 3.5 percent of its pri- and 1979 and two million stoves for

157 (:42) State of the World-1984 home heating were purchased in 198i -rntlion alone." Americans collectively burned wrus over 48 million tons of wood in their 25 homes in 1981equal in end-use heating value to nearly 100 million barrels of oil." (See Figure 8.1.) a

Between 1973 and 1981, Vermont residents halved consumption of home heating oil and tripled their burning of wood.

1 1 1960 1970 1980 1985 Figure 8.2. Use of Oil and Wood for Hoene Wood's reentry into the U.S. home Heating in Vermont, 196041 beating market is strongest where the fuel is abundant and where other energy come. Although the pace of fuel switch- sources have risen greatly in price. No ing no doubt will slacken over the com- region hetter exemplifies this than New ing years. if these general trends in oil England. where 80 percent of the land is consumption and wood use continue, forested and where the price of fuel oil wood may rival oil as the states leading the most widely used home heating residential fuel within a decade. fuelhas jumped 240 percent over the Industrial use of fuelwood has long last decade. Between 1973 and 1981, been dominated by the forest products Vermont residents halved their con- industry.,Recentprogresstoward sumption of home heating oil and tri- greater self-sufficiency in this energy- pled their burning of wood.2' (See Fig- intensive industry is impressive. Bark, ure 8-2.) In 1980 alone, $48-million pulping wastes, and wood chips now worth of petroleum was saved and, since supply about half the U.S. pulp and wood is a local energy source. its use paper industry's energyequal to about increased local employment and in- 125 million barrels of oil annually while the solid-wood products industry Million (making plywood, cabinets, pallets, and Barrels so forth) is now about 70 percent self- 100 sufficient. Many of these companies are supplying power to nearby communities 80 and industries. The Scott Paper Com- pany cogenerates 30 megawatts at its Westbrook, Maine, plant and sells the 60 surplus electricity to the local utility. Paper companies in Sweden are obtaining 60 percent of their energy from 40 wood residues; those in Canada, 45 percent. 'Mese figures should keep rising as 1965 1970 19175 197;0 1985 more firms find that extracting energy Figure 8.1. U.S. Residential Wood Use (in from their own waste matter makes eco- Equivalent Barrels of Oil). 196541 nomic sense." bepeloinng Renewable Energy (1431 Wood fuel is now attracting other in- needs and selling between 1 and 2 mega- dustries as well. By late 1985, at least 8 watts of electricity to Consumers Power, projects generating over 10 megawatts the area utility.23 of electricity exclusively from wood will Where conventional fuels are expen- be on fine in non-forest-products com- sise and wood supplies abundant. elec- panies in the United States. (See Table tric utilities are also finding fuelwood an 8-2.) By the end of the decade this num- attractive alternative. A subsidiary of ber will easily exceed 25, Industrial boil- Washington Water Power Company is ers are being fired with scrap from fUrni- nearing completion of a 46-megawatt ture-makers, waste wood from pulp wood-fueled plant in Kettle Falls that an- mills, residues from the forest, wood nually will burn about 450.000 tons of chips from land-clearing operations. as wood waste from surrounding lumber well as harvests from private forests. Chills. Vertnont's Burlington Electric De- Proctor and Gamble spent $30 million to partment, which already has retrofitted convertits large Staten Island, New two 10-megawatt coal units to burn York, plant from oil to wood in 1983 and wood, plans to have a 50-megawatt expects energy sayings of $3 million a wood-fired boiler operating inearly year. Dow Corning Corporation. a lead- 1984. The half-million tons of wood ing tnamdm lure, of silicon products, chips consumed annually will come from begancogeneratingelectricityand privately owned forests within 50 miles steam at its Midland. Michigan. plant in of the city. Ultrasystems, Inc.. of Califor- December 1982. Although the facility inais pioneering the development of can burn wood, oil. natural gas. or coal small electric power plants to be run en- (with modifications), wood is the eco- tirely on forest residues. Two plants that nomical choice for the eighties. Dow will tie into northern California's utility Corning is meeting all its own energy grid are slated for completion over the Table 8-2. United States; Selected Plants Outside of Forest Products Industry Generating Electricity From Wood'

Probe s t Capacity Wood Source Start-up (megawatts) Burlington Electric Dept. 50.0 private foiestland Spring 1984 Burlington. Vermont hat.% ems W.P Energy 46.0 mill residues Fall 1983 Kettle Falls. Washington Dow Corning 22.4 private forestland December 1982 Midland, Michigan harvests Ploctor and Gamble 13.5 industnal waste wood June 1983 Long Beach. California Uhrapower, Inc. 11.0 forest residues September 1984 Burnes. California 1.71trapower. Inc. 110 forest residues September 1985 Westwood. California Proctor and Gamble 10.5 industrial waste wood;June 1983 Staten Island. New York wood chips 'Not inducted arc utilities and miiwoic. blending wood with coal soma: Perional cononimii anon% with math And indiotry ollictalt 159 State of Mr WorldI984 next two )ears and the company plans to that are denser, drier, and thus cheaper develop 20 of these plants nationwide to transport than other wood fuels. Since over the next five years.24 converting boilers from coal to pellets is Wood-fired electricity generation is typicallyquite easy, pellet-producing also being pursued in developing coun- companies sec a large market ahead in tries.In the Philippines, the hearty fueling industries, schools,hospitals, legume tree lencaena (known there as and other institutions, as well as in heat- the ipil-ipil) has been planted on sonic ing homes. At least a dozen plants are 15.000 hectares of shallow. infertile soils now making pellets in North America. to supply wood to power plants through- BioSolar Research and Development in out the island nation. Several of the 17 Eugene, Oregon, and Shell-Canada are plants initially planned are nearing com- jointly building these plants in several pletion and at least two were expel ted to Pacific Rim countries, expecting a siza- be operating by late 1983.. About 1,200 ble market where oil import bills are hectares of letKaella are needed to sup- high.2' ply each 3-megawatt power plant with fuel on a sustainable basis. The trees are planted and farmed by rural families, No longer must a company be sur- many of whom now have steady incomes rounded by forests to fuel its boil- for the first time. Each hectare annually produces wood equal in energy content ers with wood. to 20-25 barrels of oilat one-fourth the price. With about six million hectares (20 percent) of the country's land Burning wood for fuel is not always area now denuded, there is ample room environmentally benign. As demand for and reason to expand these planta- fuclwood continues to rise and emerg- tions.gs ing technologies make logging of small Wood's resurgence as an energy tracts and noncommercial wood more source is owed in large part to new tech- economical, the character and health of nologies of harvesting and processing it forests may change. In the United States, for fuel. Mechanized whole-tree harvest- more than half the commercial forests ing, unlike traditional logging, removes are owned by nearly eight million private not only the commercially valuable bole landowners. Many have never managed of the nee but its leaves and branches as their forests for commercial purposes well. Residues formerly left as slash in but may soon have an incentive to do so. the forest are thus available for fuel. In The 50-megawatt power plant in Burl- just minutes, whole-tree chippers can ington. for example. may double the convert virtually all parts of a tree into wood harvest of northern Vermont. Fuel wood chips that can be easily tran- for Dow Corning's Michigan plant will sported to a waiting wood-fired boiler. come from private forests within 50-75 As shown by Proctor and Gamble's plant miles.27 in Staten Island, no longer must a com- Foresters anticipate both benefits and pany be surrounded by forests to fuel its problems in this situation. On the one boilers with wood. hand. selective thinning and removal of Also. in the last few )CaTS wood pellets old growth could increase the productiv- have increasingly moved from the re- ity of private forests, something that for- search tab to the marketplace. The pat- esters have advocated for some time but ented pelletizing process yields bite- that private landowners had little incen- sited bits of wood (or other biomass) tive to do. Yet whole-tree harvesting

160 beveloping Renewable Energy ('45) technologies will remove more biomass and the extent to which commercial for- from the forest and will encourage more ests come under more intensive manage- clear-cutting. Leaves and twigs have ment. high concentrations of nutrients that, if left in the forest, revitalize the soil. Removing too much biomass could eventually cause declines in forest productivity. As the wood energy market GEOTHERMAL ENERGY grows, these potential effects must be monitored carefully and limits may need DEVELOPMENT to be set on wood removal from some Whereas most renewable fuel sources forests. draw upon the sun's energy, geothermal Like most energy sources. fuelwood is energy comes directly from the earth's not without its pollution problems. Win- vast subsurface storehouse of heat. In- ter mornings in many wood-burning val- tense pressure and the decay of radioac- ley towns are now shrouded in a bluish- tive elements deep within the earth con- gray hate. Wood-stove emissions contain a high percentage of organic tinuously generate heat that escapes through hot springs, geysers, and vol- matter thought to be toxic and carcino- canoes. The world's geothermal riches genic. Wood burning is now regulated in the state of Oregon and in some towns include the area where the mid-Atlantic ridge bisects Iceland, areas around the in Colorado and Montana. In other areas where such pollution is worsening, regu- Mediterranean, the Rift Valley in East lations undoubtedly will be forthcom- Africa, and the "Ring of Fire" that ex- ing. Catalytic converters effectively con- tends around the Pacific Basin. Yet even trol wood pollutants and recoup part of outside these places, which constitute their $80-100 price tag by increasing about 10 percent of the world's land efficiencies by 15-25 percent. Pollution mass, there are abundant lower-temper- controls for industrial wood boilers gen- ature geothermal deposits.29 erally require a smaller capital invest- For millennia people have flocked to ment than a comparable coal plant hot springs, and by the ninth century would. but costs are not insignificant. Icelanders were using geothermal heat Theelectrostaticprecipitator that for cooking. In the Middle Ages several removes virtually all particulates at Dow European towns distributed naturally Coming's plant added 15-20 percent to hot water to heat homes. The 20 coun- construct ion cost S.28 tries tapping this source today for chores Although wood is unlikely to regain a other than bathing cull the energy equiv- place of dominance in the energy bud- alent of 91 million barrels of oil each gets of industrial countries, it is emerg- year. about half in the form of direct heat ing as an important component of the and half as electricity. Although not yet renewable energy picture in many re- a major component of the global energy gions. Neither the forest management budget, this is enough direct heat to problems nor the pollution control chal- meet the needs of over 2 million homes lenges it poses are insurmountable. Be- in a cold climateandsufficient electricity fore the century is out. wood's contribu- for over 1.5 million model n homes." tion to primary energy needs is likely to Heating homes is the widest applica- reach between 7 and 15 percent in sev- tion of geothermal energy today. Since eralindustrialcountries, depending the turn of the century, the residents of upon the success of energy plantations Klamath Falls. Oregon, have drilled ip (146) Stale of the World-1981 more than 400 wells to tap the 40- in industry. In northern Iceland a miner- 110° C water beneath their houses for al-processing plant uses it to remove the space- and domesticwater-heating. moisture from siliceous earth. With 30 Household wells there have exchangers percent lower energy costs, the company that transfer heat from the briny subter- now pockets an extra $1.3 million annu- ranean reservoir to the pure water cir- ally. At Brady's Hot Springs, Nevada, an culating to the house. Using a heat ex- onion dehydration plant using geother- changer conserves the resource. mal energy is saving $300.000 per year, minimizes corrosion. and skirtsthe enough tomotivate the company's problem of wastewater disposal." managers to expand the original plant Where human settlements sit astride and build an additional one." geothermal resources, district heating is Converting geothermal heat to elec- an unbeatable bargain. The most im- tricity allows the captured energy to be pressive example is Iceland, whose im- transported to cities and factories far mense geothermal resources provide from its source. Areas with the high-tem- heat for 75 percent of the population. In perature geothermal water or steam Reykjavik. the capital. nearly all the 112,- needed for electricity generation are 000 residents use heat from two geo- rarer than those suited for direct use. thermal fields under the city and from Even so, today over 130 geothermal another field 15 kilometers away. Visi- power plants with capacities of 0.5-120 tors to this frigid city in the thirties recall megawatts are operating in more than a the pall of coal and wood smoke that dozen countries, and the number is engulfed it in winter. Today the air is growing rapidly. (See Table 8.31 Collec- clear. and heating homes costs one- tively, these plants have a generating ca fourth what it would if fuel oil were used." France. Hungary. the Soviet Table 8.3. Worldwide Geothermal Union, and the United States also have Electrical Generating Capacity, June 1983 geothermal district heating systems in Total place. Power installed Although geothermal technology has Country Plants Capacity advanced far in recent decades, it is still the simplest uses that are the most popu (number) (megawatts) la r. Japan's 1.500 hot-spring resorts are United States 24 1.284 visited by 100 million people each year. Philippines 14 594 for example. and require no drilling. lit- Italy 41 457 tle piping, and minimal capital. Yet it Japan 8 228 would takefivelargeconventional Mexico 10 205 power plants to heat these baths. In New Zealand 14 203 parts of Mexico, people wash clothes with naturally hot water: some Thais and El Salvador 3 95 Guatemalans use it to boil vegetables Iceland 5 41 and make tea. The largest agricultural Indonesia 3 32 application is greenhouse heating: In Kenya 2 30 Hungary. geothermal greenhouses Soviet Union I II cover 70 hectares. while Italy saves China 10 8 $600.000 worth of fuel oil a year by geo- Total 135 3.188 thermally heating several green- souna. Ronald Othppo. Southeastern Massathu houses.33 setts University. privacy Communwalion. &poem. This renewahle resource is also used her 1983.

162 Developing Renewable Energy (147) Megawatts voirs that contain both steam and water. 1200 Plants that tap this less idea! form of geo- Sawa: Paoli( Gas thermal energy are found in at least ten and Electne co countries, though many of the projects are still experimental. One of the most 800-, successful facilities, in Wairakei, New Zealand,hasoperated continuously since the mid-sixties. Electricity generation declined at this 190megawatt plant at first, apparently because water was 400- being extracted faster than it was being replaced. However, generation has stabilized since the mid-seventies.36

I i 1960 1970 1980 1985 Over 130 geothermal power plants Figure 11-S. Electricity Generated at WOrld's Largest Geothermal Project, The Geysers, are operating in more than a dozen California, 196043 countries. pacity of over 3,000 megawatts. The simplest techttology for generating electricity is the dry steam system A major boost to geothermal development will occur when generating plants used at steam-only reservoirs. Four such can use these more abundant geother- systems are in operation: one commer- mal resources. Conventional "separated cial complex each in Italy and the United steam" facilities use the naturally avail- States and two smaller systems in ln able steam alone to run the turbines. donesia and Japan. Electricity genera- More-efficient "double flash" plants dition at these rare, prime sites is mainly a rect hot water brought to the surface to matter of piping the steam to a standard a vessel where pressure is reduced and turbine. The largest complex is one at additional steam generated. A recent in- The Geysers in northern California. novationthe binary cycle plantal. which has been rapidly developed in the lowsefficientelectricitygeneration last decade. (See Figure 8-3.) In 1983, 17 using lower-temperature water (between power plants were providing1,000 150-200' C). Pilot plant tests in China, megawatts of generating capacity for the Japan, and the United States indicate PacificGas andElectric Company that this promising design needs more (PG&E)about 6 percent of the utility's research and operating experience, how- generating capacity. 'Four other develop- e *r. Geothermal cogenerationusing ers are active in The Geysers area, in- the same energy for both electricity gen- cluding the California Department of eration and direct thermal usecan also Water Resources, which uses the geo- increase efficiency.37 thermal energy to pump water into, its Improving the means of locating and state water project aqueducts. Total drilling for geothermal resources would generating capacity at The Geysers from speed the pace of development of this the wells °fail five developers may reach energy source. Many industries and cit- 2.500 megawatts before the century is ies undoubtedly sit atop hidden geother- out.35 mal resources that could provide them More common are geothermal reser- with relatively cheap energy. The dril-

163 (148) State of the World-198-1 ling of wells often accounts for more tus of geothermal resources inhibits de- than half the cost of some geothermal velopment. In most market economies it projects. Exploration and drilling relies makes sense to follow the petroleum on techniques similar to those used In model, giving the private sector primary natural gas development and improve- responsibility for developing geother- mettts should reduce costs. The sophis- mal energy but standardizing leasing ticated remote-sensing techniques de- procedures and charging the industry veloped by petroleunt geologists are royalty fees if the government owns the being adapted to geothermal energy resource." Governments may also need prospecting. This should lower costs, to set requirements on plant size and though by exactly how much is hard to pollution levels to ensure that geother- predict. mal developments do not harm the envi- 111:purities such as salts and silicates. ronment and that they preserve other picked up from subterranean rock by the lattd values. hot circulating water, typically cause One approach to risk-sharing taken in scaling and corrosion at geothermal France, Iceland, and the United States is plants. Moreover, the materials that cor- for the government to reimburse some rode or scale the inside of a geothermal proportion of the cost of exploratory system often become pollution outside wells. In Iceland, an Energy Fund pro- it. Hydrogen sulfide, anoxious gas vides loans to cover 60 percent of ex- found at almost all geothermal sites, is ploration and drilling costs. If the well occasionally concentrated enough to is successful, the loan is repaid at nor- cause lung paralysis, nausea, and other mal bank rates using the proceeds from health problems. Pollution control de- the project.Ifitisdry,the loan vices developed for use on coal plant becomes a cash grant and the project is emissions can remove approximately 90 dropped 4t percent of the hydrogen sulfide, but so Prospects for geothermal energy are far only The Geysers plant in California bright. Its use has expanded more than and a few others use them. As the cost of 10 percent per year since the mid-seven- the devices would constitute less than 10 ties; in the two years leading up to June percent of the overall system, expense is 1983, worldwide capacity rose by 26 per- no excuse for this lapse; geothermal cent. Reliance on this source is likely to plants need not become major polluters. increase five- to tenfold by the end of the Surface water supplies also must be pro- century, with direct heating playing a tected from mercury, arsenic, and other greater role in the industrial countries substattces often dissolved in rot her- and electricity generation being more mal water." important in the Third World." Like all renewable energy sources. Estimates vary greatly on how quickly geothermal energy will not flourish with- the direct use of geothermal heat will out amenable institutions. Governments grow. France, which has low-tempera- could help by conducting broad prelimi- ture geothermal resources below two- nary assessments to indicate where pri- thirds is its land area, aims to have a vate industry should focus its efforts. half-million geothermally heated homes Most countries with major development by 1990. Canada, China, Japan, the So- programs, including the Philippines and viet Union, and the United States could the United States, have begun such sur- also expr ud the direct use of geothermal veys, though few are as extensive as they heat dramatically. Through China's na- might be." Also, the uncertain legal sta- tional exploratory program. approxi-

164 Developing Renewable Energy (149) :irately 2.300 ho spots have been iden- ELECTRICITY FROM tified, and geothermal experts expect 1 country to move rapidly in its devel- SUNLIGHT , _At of direct geothermal heat. Much Solar photovoltaic cells may become one of the Soviet ttnion sits atop low-tem- of the most rapidly expanding energy perature geothermal deposits, and sev- sourcesand one of the biggest growth eral district heating projects are under way.43 itidustriesof the next 20 years. Produc- Geothermal electricity development tion of these cells has nearly quadrupled since 1981. and worldwide sales totaled could add up to 17,000 megawatts by the year 2000five times the current level. approximately $250 million in1983. The United States is likely to account for After a decade of being considered a fu- one-third of this total. Energy analysts in turistic solar energy prospect, photovol- Hawaii estimate that geothermal source, talcs are now entering the commercial could supply 1,000 megawatts of that marketplace with a full head of steatn.46 state's tlectricity by century's endone- Phctovoltaic cells are a product of third or mole ot Hawaii's total projected modern solid -state physics, and they di- electricity supply. Some 20 potential rectly convert sunlight, the world's most sites throughout the islands have been abundant and widespread renewable en- identified. opening up the possibility of ergy source, into electricity. Photovol- an interisland electric cable.44 taic cells are virtually maintenance-free The Philippines has nearly 600 mega- and are made from silicon, the second watts of geothermal generating capacity most abundant element in the earth's today and plans to double this by 1989. crust. The first silicon cells, developed in Eventually geothermal energy will rival the United States in the fifties, were ex- hydropower as that country's largest pensiveseveral hundred times the cost electricity source. Kenya, the only Afri- of conventional electricity sources. But can nation now generating electricity the need for a lightweight and long-last- with geothermal energy. has doubled its ing power source for the space program installed capacity in the last two years. El helped rescue photovoltaics from obscu- Salvador has generakod one-third of its rity. By the late sixties, U.S. companies power from geothermal energy in some were producing enough solar cells to recent years. and Mexico plans to have power virtually all U.S. satellites, provid- 600 megawatts of geothermal capacity ing vital defense, scientific, and research by the mid-eighties.45 services. By any sound reckoning, geothermal As fossil fuel prices ros.. in the seven- energy use will be substantial in the year ties, solar cells became a much more at- 2000, though it will remain concentrated tractive energy source; researchers in in a few areas. Countries such as Iceland several European countries, Japan, the and the Philippines will draw heavily on Soviet Union, and the United States their rich geothermal endowment. And began to develop solar cells for use on as the technology for tapping geother- earth. Major advances in the efficiency mal resources iinpros es and some indus- and reliability of photovoltaic cells have tries relocate to geothernially rich re- been made in the last decade while cts gions, many mere countries will rely on have fallen tc a sman traction of their this renewable resource. It will gradually earlier level. become another strong link ii. a diverse Current uses for solar cells are quite global energy system. diverse. though they have proved most

165 (150) StaleoftheWorldI984 popular in applications bur which con- Megawrita ventional energy sources are itnpractical ul Capacuy or simply not available. A large share of 20 photovoltaic systems are used at remote Sources: Strategies Unhand; communications installations, for water PV Energy Systems, Inc. pumping, and at isolated houses. Other 15 solar cell applications range from porta-

ble modules that are popular on boats 10 and train cabooses to larger systems tor isolated mountain cabins and scientific researchstations. Although most of these are still expensive, particularly since they normally require batteries,

they are usually cheaper than the alter- 1 natives. Also growing in popularity since 1975 1980 1985 1980 are solar-powered hand calculators Figure 8-4. Annual World Shipments of and other portable electronic devices. Photovoltaic Celle, 197543 About 60 million solar calculators were sold in 1083, using over 10 percent of tricity's future role. Solar cells have fol- the solar cells manufactured.47 lowed a remarkable cost curve, with Approximately 60 companies now costs being at least halved every five manufacture solar cells in 20 different years. Although actual average prices countries. The United States still holds have not fallen quite as steeply as U.S. 60 percent of the worldwide market. but energy planners had hoped, they have other nations are gaining ground ra- declined from nearly $20 per peak watt pidly. Japan has the fastest-growing in- in 1977 to $8 in late 1983. (See Figure dustry and now has a 20 percent market 8-5.) Balance-of-system costs add $5-10 share. The rest of the industry is cen- to the cost of a typical photovoltaic sys- tered mainly in Europe, led by France, tem. Commercial solar cells generate KAY. and West Germany. Countries with power for between 50g and $1 per kilo- smaller photovoltaic industries include watt-hour, ten times the typical price of Australia.Belgium,Brazil.Canada, grid electricity in industrial countries.s9 China, England.India.Mexico, the Solar cells are expensive for a number Netherlands. the Soviet Union. Spain. of reasons: energy-intensive processing, and Sweden." Worldwide production of large labor requirements (including the photovoltaics is generally measur..d by meticulous hand-assemhly of cells), and the kilowatts of peak capacity that the extensive supporting components. solar cells can generate. The manufac- Costs will be reduced by half simply by ture of photovoltairs has grown 75 per- developing less-expensive methods of cent annually. from 500 kilowatts of manufacturing the single-crystal silicon peak-power capacity in 1977 to an es- cells that currently dominate the market. timated 18.000 kilowatts (18 megawatts) Similarly, the efficiency of these cells can in 1983over 100 times as much as be raised from 10 percent up to 15 per- when the space program was atits cent. Another cost-reduction strategy is height, (Sec Figure 8-4.) The solar cell to develop any of several promising industry is currently one of the world's next-generationsolarcells,such as boom industries, and so far its growth amorphous silicon, that are likely to be rate shows no sign of slowing.49 cheaper to produce. The main challenge Cost reduction is the key to solar el( is to obtain efficiencies of at least 8-10

16'6 Developing Renewable Energy (15I) tl.S Debtors Besides offering the prospect of in- Per Peak Wan expensive power. placing solar-electric 30 systems on residential and industrial Soarers: Strairgus finluaittd. rooftops allows greater energy indepen- Entrp Svstrau. dence. In addition to the approximately 10,000solar-electricresidencescur- rently in remote areas such as Alaska and 20 the Australian outback, architects and engineers are designing photovoltaic homes connected to electricity grids in modern sububan communities. Excess electricity from residential photovoltaic systems is sold to the local utility. while 10 the homeowner relies on the utility's power when the sun is not shining. Sev- eral photovoltaic homes have been built in the United States in the early eighties and have been successful, albeit quite expensive so far. Communities in all but WV, 1930 1985 the must overcast climates should even- Figure 8.5. Avenge Market Prices of tuaily be able to obtain at least one-quar- Photovoltaic Modules. 1975-83 ter of their electricity from rooftop solar systems." percent using materials that lack the inherently good photovoltaic properties of crystalline silicon. Coinniercial production of amorphous cells began in Japan About 60 million solar calculators in 1982 and in the United States in 1983. were sold in 1983, using over 10 Some analysts think they will sweep the percent of the solar cells manufac- market by 1990.51 tured. Larger manufacturing plants employing more - advanced and less-expensive processes arc scheduled to come on-lit.e The question of which use of solar in 'he next few sears. anti intense inter- electricity will prove most economical national competition for market shares and popular in the future is still open to is already helping to push prices down. argument.Advocates of centralized By 1990, a total solarelectric system will solar power cite the economic advan- cost between $4 and $8 per watt and tages of large photovoltaic systems, generate electricity at a cost of between since one set of power lines and control 150 and 309 per kilowatt-hour. This is devices can serve a large installation. getting close to the price consumers pay The U.S.DepartmentofEnergy for electricity in many parts of the world. financed a number of large photovoltaic including Europe and Japan. Further re- projects in the late seventies, including a ductions are likely after 1990. Sint e the 225-kilowatt solar power project that costs of most electricity sources. includ- provides electricity for the Sky Harbor ing coal and nuclear power, will con- Airport near Phoenix. Arizona. Soleras. tinue to rise. 'olar cells should be a com- the first major photovoltaic project in petitive electricity source in all but a few the Third World. was installed in Saudi areas of the world by the mid-nineties.st Arabia in 1981, It generates 350 kilo-

167 (152) Slate of the Woad-1984 watts of solai poem foi duce vill.igs, Japan began operation of its first solar meeting the' de-men, needs of 3.600 power plant, a 200kilowatt facility. in people.54 (See Table 8-4.) late 1982. Solar panels are still being In 1983 there was a blossoming of added to it, and when it is complete in huge solar -e lectruprojects. The first 1986 it will have a total capachy of I pin ate4funded pitmen oltaic pone: megawatt. Japan's New Energy Develop- plant, built by ARCO Sam, Ins., was ment Organization, the principal funder eompleted in southern Califiirnia in Feb- of this plant, has several other projects ruary 1983, Made possible by the state's in the works, including a 200-kilowatt solar id:: credits, the 1-megawatt project experimental system for a Japanese uni- feeds power lino the lines of the South- versity.56 ern California Edison Company. Edi- The European Economic Community son's CalifOrnia rival in the alternative and individual European countries are energy business, the Pacific Gas and developing 20 photovoltaic demonstra- Electric Company, now has a164- tion projects. The five largest will be megawatt photovoltaic project under completed in 1984.1taly's 1,150-kilowatt w.n. The Sacramento Municipal Utility gover,.ment-fundedDelphosproject District (SMUD) has begun work on a was the world's largest operating plant 109megawatt photovoltaic power plant in1983,In West Germany, a 300 - In lar the world's largestscheduled kilowatt plant is being installed on the for completion by 1994 al a total cost of island of Pellworin by AEG Telefunken, over $250 million. Early in 1983 ARCO the country's leading photovoltaics com- Solar was awarded a contract to company. The project will meet all the power plete the initial 1-megawatt phase of the needs of a recreation center, and excess SMI'D project for $5 a peak wan, a re- electricity will feed into the utility grid, cord low. 1.1 the late eighties, this pro- In 1983, 100-kilowattphotovoltaic ject alone could install as many solar plants were completed in Denmark, cells each yen as were produced world- Greece, and Spain.57 wide. in 1983.55 Although much of the progress made Table 8.4. The World's Twelve Largest Photovoltaic Projects, 1983 I'roje( t Expected or Actual or Swami Location Sire Completion Date (kilowans) Sac raturmo Muni( . Uoilat California 100.000 1994 United Energs Corpoi anon California 20,000 1984 Pacific Gas & Efer. Co. California 10,500 1985 Uniicd Fair' gs Corporation California 10.000 1984 Delphos bah 1,150 1983 ARCO Solar California 1,000 1983

N EDO Japan 1.000 1986 Solent+ Sandi Arabia :!:)0 1981 Al..(; 1 eleftittlken %Vest Germain. 300 1983 U.S. Department of Iiiirro Arkansas 245 198: U.S. 1)epartinent of Ester* Arizona 225 1982 Solarex Maryland 200 1982 sot to I s oildwAtt It tostootr, based on %Anon.% Unirtl's

168 1)rveioping 1?elieleable Eittigt (153)

in phonwohast s so fat has bent ni indus- Pakistan is planning to introduce solar trial countries. the Third World MayAl- crier is icity in 14 villages by 1984.59 wally gain the most from solar electru its Two small U.S. companies, the Spire over the next few decades. Most %Wages Corporation and the Chrottar Corpora- and rural areas in developing countries tion. are helping to create photovoltaic still lack act ess to a steads suppis of de( - industries in the Third World in export- tai,, and in dues power is usual!, ing manufacturing equipment. in early more xpensne than it is in the indus- 1983 Chronat ugned a counact with trial world. The them:: of extending t en- Moroi «) to build a photovoltaic factory. tral grids into the -heart of darkness" The plant. which will be completed in has faded in the face of mounting debts 1984 for $6 million, will manufacture I- and the rising cast of vast networks of megawatt worth of solar cells per year power fines. initially and 20 megawatts of cells atm- Ike most tommon luu its soot t- .111 in .1 firsyears. A number of other in most %Wages toda, is a diesel genera- commies-1.pm Kuwait. and the Phil- um . Btu these are unreliable and expen- ippinesare understandabh impressed snebetween 200 and $1 per kilowatt- and are negotiating with Chronar to pur- hourmans tunes more than !wind chase factories of their own 60 electric n s prices in mdustnal countries. Some countries. including France. the Photottilian ss steins are relanselv United States. and West Germany. sup. ottaintenaine-hee. and if solar t ell prit es port photovohaics through their foreign Tall 50 percent or mutt' m the next he aid programs. Since the mid-seventies 'eats. as expetted. solar power will be Punt e has had major programs under come onotnit al for most sillage elet wa, to install solar-powered pumps and mat% application,. In man, sillages. telesision sets in West Africa. The televi- photos 'than s are alread, an et onomial sion sets. modified to require as little as was to run refrigerators. communica- 20 watts of power. bring educational tions sstems. telesiston sets. lights. and programs to people in remote areas at a nulls. Water pumping is a particularn reasonable ost. The U.S. Agency for In- good use of colar electrit its. since sun- ternational Des ailment installed eight light is usual's available when water is spenall, designed solar-powered vac- most needed. In the 'Iltird World, Just a cine refrigerators at rural health centers few hundred watts of ptiwerminum tile in 1982 and has another dozen small- in industrial nation standards---can pro - scale projects under way." side bash amenities for the first time." One of the more ambitious plans for (4irrentls mei 90 percentofthe plunovollau s is to provide electricity for world's solar t ells are produced in indns- whole sillages. The first experimental ii ial nations. but main developing comp %Wage system was installed on the t.-ies will min begin production. Moat Papago Indian Reservation in Arizona in has e entered the photosoltait s business 1978, Since then its 3.5 kilowatts of cells dining!' joint %emigres Is i.h established have run water pumps. lights. refrigera- tompaniesand at first do onl, pan tif the tors. and communal washing and sewing manufacturing at home. As of ntid -198 :3 machines for the village's 96 residents. there were at least eight t ommercial solar who pieviously had no electricity. A cell companies in the Thud World: a much larger.25-kilowatt system in- half-dozen additional (outlines will soon stalled in a Tunisian village in 1982 is have indigenous industries. Two Brazil- pumping water, providing power for ag- ian companies have joint sesames in ricultural tasks. and meeting household Kenya and India. and the gosernment of needs. Thousands of village solar-elec-

1,69 (154) State of the World-1984 irk systems «mid be in use by 1990. For With more than a dozen renewable en- this to occur. howe%er. governments and ergy sources being explored in a variety international aid agencies must arrange of settings around the world, the occa- innovative financing. One thing they call s;)nal hiled project or neglected oppor- do is so use agricultural extension ser- tunity does not jeopardize overall prog- vices and subsidized loans to encourage ress. In a time of scarce capital and high the use of solar pumps and mills.62 interest rates. spreading the risk inher- Although solar cells are still one of the em in developing new energy sources is mostexpensive renewableenergy clearly a benefit. Modern communica- sources, they are also advancing the tions have permitted the rapid dissemi- most rapidly. Based on recent industry nation of information among research- trends, photovoltaics should begin re- ersandentrepreneurs,accelerating placing most diesel generators and be- renewable energy development far become the largest new source of electric- yond the pace that would have been pos- ity for villages in developing countries sible in a previous era. within a few years. And with utilities tak- This chapter only hints at the literally ing the lead, centralized photovoltaic thousands of technologies and concepts power stations could become a wide- being tested by individuals and compa- spread electricity source in many indus- nies around the world, Joining wind trial regions by the late eighties. By the power, fuelwood, geothermal energy, early nineties, rooftop solar-electric sys- and photovoltaic systems in the progress tems should begin so catch on. of the past decade are small hydro- Worldwideannualproductionof power, passive solar design, active solar photovoltaics is likely to exceed 200 heating, solar-thermal electricity gener- megawatts of capacity by 1990 and pass ation, and liquid fuels from biomass. For 1,000 megawatts b,, the end of the cen- renewable energy, the oil price rises of tury. This will make the photovoltaics the seventies had acatalytic effect, business a $10-billion industry by the stimulating a tremendous surge of inno- year 2000. Total installed solar-electric vation that has far from run its course. capacity will probably be between 5,000 Much of the progress in renewable en- and 10.000 megawatts by century's end. ergyisnot apparent to those who Although this will supply just a small confine their energy studies to the anal), fraction of the world's electricity, it will sis of aggregate energy statistics, where set the stage for widespread introduc- many renewable sources do not yet ap- tion of solar electricity. By the middle of pear at all. (Until recently, for example, die twenty-first century, photovoltaics the U.S, Department of Energy did not may be providing 20-30 percent of the include residential fuelwood use in its world's electricity and serving as a cor- statistical reports, although it ranks as nerstone of a sustainable global power the country's fourth largest heating s%stem.0 fuel.) Yet the progress to date estab- lishes a firm base for development, Even without further oil price increases, many renewable energy sources are economically competitive. ENCOURAGING One sign that renewable energy has DEVF.LOPMENTS come of age is that conferences on the various technologies are now frequented Diversity is a hallmark of the renewable by businesspeople and bankers talking energy developments oldie past decade. about venture capital and "buy-back

I '70 Developing Renewable Energy lr551 rates" as well as le( NM .111 specifications. ahle resources are eroding at a frighten- Newsletters arc published for those m- ing rate M developing countries, and the terested in renewable energy invest- technical expertise and financialre- ment: solar stock indices are available sources needed to adapt or develop new for those who want to keep track of their energy technologies are often lacking. investments. Topflight scientists and en- Mobilising people and channeling avail- gineers are invoked in tnany of the re- able funds to productive use depends on search programs. Renewable energy is a redirection of institutions. The com- losing some of its counterculture image. munity forestry program in South Korea though it is still strongly supported b) and the biogas program in China are two manyenvironmentalists,community examples of how properly harnessed leaders. and consumer groups who favor efforts can accelerate the development renewable energy for its euvirotintental of renewable energy while helping pre- and social advantages. serve a country's resource base. In order to flourish, renewable energy No energy transition unfolds over- development must be integrated with night. Switching from wood fuel to coal existinginstitutions. Only thenwill during the Industrial Revolution took enough trained people and sufficient most countries a century or more, and funding be available for long-term de- several decades were needed for oil and velopment. Oite of the encouraging natural gas to take hold. The key to a trends of the early eighties is the ciea- viable renewable energy-based future is tion of a variety of nongovernmental that the world manage the transition mechanisms tofacilitatethis.Most gradually--phasittg in new fuels before prominent are the "third parts' desel- the old ones run out and simultaneously opers in the United States who construct reshaping economies and societies. The wind farms. wood-fueled power plants. last decade's progress has cleared the and the 1"attd sell the power to utili- way for gradual change. Energy conser- ties. .v tax credits, these outfits vation can continue to provide breathing are 'at ...asing the investment funds room for development of new technolo- available for some renewable energy gies and allow a smooth meshing of resources and are stimulating new indus- newable andconventional energy tries to build and service the equipment. sources during the transition. This his- Dozens of communities around the torical transformation will provide op- world have taken the initiative to de. portunities for creativity and growth for velop their own renewable energy and generations to come. conservation plans. This approach helps Conservative projections compiled by bypass the barriers posed by existing M- Worldwatch Institute in early 1983 indi- stitutions that are reluctant to try some- cate that worldwide use of renewable en- thing differentoften the chief problem ergy will expand at least 75 percent by in getting a new energy source estab- the end of the century." This will be lished. Energy prograins in which in enough to meet half of the world's addi- dividuals assume much of the responsi- tional energy needs by that date and bility for needed changes have generally one-quarter of total energy needs. More proved more successful than those run rapid growth is likely after the turn of the by distant bureaucrats. century as oil supplies dwindle and Most Third World countries already prices riseand as developers take ad- rely heavily on renewable energy but the vantage of the tech'.ological advances difficulties they face in using it on a sus- that will have occurred in the interim. By tamable basis are considerable. Renew- that time. there will be mature industries

171 (156) State of the World-1984 producing wind generators. small hy- ploy ment. new designs for cities. and a droelectric turbines, and methanol dis- revitalized rural sector could all emerge tilleries for world markets. with renewable energy development. With proper management, renewable For individuals and for the environ- energy sources could easily supply as ment the changes could be rejuvenating. much energy as the world uses today be- Because "renewables'' are less polluting fore running up against resource con- than coal, people will breathe easier as straints. Assuming a substantially more energy systems change, as will crops and efficient world with twice the current forests. And renewable energy offers population and several times the current people striving for self-sufficiency the wealth, renewable energy should be able chance to take more direct control of to meet our needs indefinitely. Reaching their energy supply. For many people in that point will be difficult, but given the the Third World, renewable energy de- failed promise of nuclear power and the velopment will bring electric lights, run- fact that fossil fuels are fading rapidly, ning water, and television for the first major reliance on renewable energy time. after the year 2000 may be essential. Renewable energy is no panacea, how- Fifty years from now historians will ever. As various forms of it are devel- look back at the world's heavy reliance oped. land use pressures will intensify on one fuel as an unhealthy anomaly and environmental conflicts ariseal- born of decades of low oil prices. In the ready foreshadowed by disputes over the future, differences in climate, natural relocation of wind farms and the illegal sources, economic systems. and social cutting of fueiwood. Each energy source outlook will determine which energy must be carefully developed and trade- sources are used where. Some countries offs carefully weighed if renewable en- will depend on five or six major sources ergy is to provide the maximum benefits of energytrue energy security. As en- to society. The first step is recognizing ergy supply patterns change. so will that renewable resources area key to the economies and societies. Industries will world's energy future. The record of the tend to locate near large rivers. geother- past decade shows that they deserve a mal deposits. and other "lodes" of re- much higher place on the energy agen- newable energy since these fuels are less das of nations. portable than oil. New patterns of em-

1 72 9

Reconsidering the Automobile's Future Lester R. Brown

In the rapidly changing resource and example, because automobiles require economic milieu of the late seventies not only fuel but land as well. In densely and early eighties the future of the auto- populated China, where land is scarce, mobile has received too little attention. the private automobile is virtually un- The only question seems to have been known. International indebtedness on what the source ' : future fuel supplies an unforeseen scale in the Third World would be. It has been assumed, perhaps and in Eastern Europe is restricting au- too readily, that synthetic fuels could tomotive fuel imports in scores of coun- quickly replace gasoline and diesel fuel. tries. At the individual level, the narrow- Within the auto industry. many being margin of global economic growth lieved it was only a matter of time until over that of population is preventing the the automobile became the centerpiece rise in affluence needed if car ownership of transportation systems everywhere. A is to spread as projected. 1978 study of the world automobile industry projected the world fleet would expand from just under 300 million vehicles at the time to some 700 million by the year 2000, reaching one car for every eight people.' Yet projections THE AGE OF THE such as these are notmaterializing AUTOMOBILE largely because they were based on a narrow information base and a corre- Although early automobile technology spondingly narrow set ofconsiderations, developed more or less apace in West- failing to account for a long list of ern Europe and in North America, it was emerging resource, economic, and polit- in the United States that the new tech- ical constraints. nology firsttook root and flowered. Competition for resources arises. for Henry Ford's ingenious production ap-

173 (358) State of the Mr 1d-1984 proadi. 0011 copied by other manufac- Table 9.1. World Automobile Fleet, turers, led to a rapid spread of automo- 1950-82 biles throughout the United States. In 1900 there were 8.000 registered cars; Year Passenger Cars' by 1930 there were 23 million.2 (n The depression decade of the thirties 1950 414 and the war decade of the forties saw a slowing of growth. Nevertheless. the au- 1953 67 tomotive society evolved much faster in 1960 9° the United States than in Europe. The country was still a relatively young one 1965 130 us cities were young and, unlike those in 1970 181 Europe with their narrow streets, they 1971 194 made room for the automobile as they 1972 207 evolved. And the United States had an- 1973 220 other major advantageus own oil 197.4 236 fields. Although the automobile became a 1973 249 commercially viable means of transpor- 1976 260 tation shortly after the turn of the cen. 1977 270 fury. the great worldwide growth in its 1978 286 use did not occur until after World War 1979 297 H. when oil was priced at $2 a barrel 1980 310 and the world economy was embarking 1981 321 on a quarter-century of unprecedented 1982 331 growth. As recently as 1950 the world 'Registrations as of January 1 of Year limed. fleet ntsntbered only 48 million. (See soma. Motor rattle Manufacturers Associa- Table 9 -1.) In its adolescence, during the two. World Motor rektrte Data Book. 1982 Malan early fifties, the world auto industry was (Demon. MI6.: 19821. producing just under 10 million vehicles Indeed, as recently as 1950 two-thirds of per year. But in 1958 production began a the world's automobiles were owned by steep climb that continued. with only an Americans. (See Figure 9-1.) it was not occasional interruption, until it reached 30 million per year in 1973. At this point until 1968 that the test of the world some 100.000 automobiles rolled ofl the finally caught up. Since th,:n. two-thirds world's assembly lines each working day. of the growth in the fleet has occurred underlining the economic importance of outside the United States.4 automobile manufacturing.2 A vigorous auto industry has emerged in Japan in recent decades. Although automobile manufacturing had scarcely begun in that country in 1960. the indus- In 1980 Japan produced 7 million try grew at a remarkable rate. In 1980 autos, compared with 6.3 million Japan produced 7 million autos, cont Atnericanmade cars. pared with 6.3 million American-made cars. For the first time since the automobile age began. the United States was no During the first half of the twentieth longer the world leaders In contrast to century, auto production and ownership the U.S. industry. Japanese automakers was concentrated in the United States. have been heavily export-oriented, pro-

1 74 &mustering the Automobile's Future (159) Minion ward toward those businesses associated 225 i with car sales and maintenance, itis 200- sometimes referred to as the "industry Rest of of industries?' World

MO-

MO- THE DECLINE IN United Sums PRODUCTION

50- Given the near universality of oil as an automobile fuel. it is not surprising that Source. Motor Vela& the automobile's fate is so closely tied to Manufacturers Assn. the price of petroleum. The oil price 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 hike of 1973 caused a drop in world auto Figure 94. Passenger Car Registrodoss, United production to 25 million in 1975. (See States and Rest of World, 195042 Figure 9-2.) As the price of oil stabilized in the mid-seventies and as the real price ducing cars that could be marketed of gasoline again began to decline. the throughout the world. Their success was demand for automobiles resumed an up- reinforced by the oil price increases in ward climb. By 1978 production reached 1973 and 1979. which greatly strength- 31.8 million vehicles, the highest ever. ened the market for the smaller, more and 1979 nearly matched that level. But fuelefficient Japanese model. This com- after these two backto-back records, bination of fuel efficiency. quality engi- production fell for three consecutive neering. and low price has made Japa- years. There was a slight upturn in 1983, nese cars formidable competitors in though output that year was still some 15 markets everywhere. So formidable, in percent below the peak years of 1978 fact, that by the early eighties the United and 1979.6 States and several European countries were pressing the Japanese to voluntar- Million ily limit their exports. 35 As the seventies began, automobile ownership in the United States and in the industrial countries of northwestern Europe was nearing saturation, a situa- don where the market for new vehicles is 20- dominated by replacement needs. The large, undeveloped markets appeared to be in Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union. and the Third World. where the private to- car was still a cherished status symbol in Sources: Motor Vehkk the late twentieth century. automobile Manufacturers Assn.; WorIchoatch production has emerged as the world's leading manufacturing industry. With 1950 19160 19-70 1980 1985 numerous linkages both backward to- Figure 9.2. World Production of Passenger ward the raw material suppliers and for- Cars, 19504$ 175 (160) State of the World-1984 From 1950 to 1973. when oil cost $2 These advantages, which have given per barrel, oil production increased at Japan the edge in the world auto market, 7.6 percent per year and automobile are going to make it exceedingly difficult production at an almost equally phe- for the United States to regain the lead. nomenal anginal rate of 5.8 percent. (See Within the Third World, growth of the Table 9-2.) The 1973 increase in the oil dynamic Brazilian automobile industry price to $12 markedly slowed the pro- was effectively checked by the 1979 price duction of both petroleum and automo- rise. Although somewhat protected by biles. Six years later, the second oil price its increasing production of sugarcane- hike actually triggered a decline in the based alcohol fuel, Brazil was nonethe- production of both, with the annual less affected by the overall downturn in drop in each case exceeding 5 percent global economic activity. Not only did over the next three years. automobile exports level off, but the se- The decline in global automobile pro- vere internal economic stresses led to a duction since 1979 has not been dis- sharp decline in domestic sales as well.' tributed evenly among the world's prin. Another of the world's most dynamic filial manufacturers. In both the United developing economies, South Korea, States and Western Europe, the falloff' also found itself in difficulty in this sec- wasdisproportionatelygreat.The tor. A latecomer to automobile assem- United Kingdom, with one of the least bly, the Korean industry, with the direct contpetitive industries, was hit hard. In support and encouragement of the gov- this case a long-term decline resulting ernment, had been planning a several- from gradual loss of competitiveness has foldincreasein automobile output been accelerated by the changing auto. within a span of a few years. By 1980, mobile market and rising fuel prices. In however, it was using only 30 percent of Japan, however, production actually in. its total production capacity of 235,000 creased in 1980 and then reached a pia. vehicles per year" Caught in the early teau during the early eighties. In 1981 phase of rapid expansion by the 1979 oil the automobile industry in North Amer- price increase, the country's export-ori- ica was producing at 66 percent of capac- ented industry faced intensified compe- ity. Western Europe was at 79 percent of tition and, in many cases, import restric- capacity, and Japan was at full capacity.? tions in the major markets. Despite its historical lead and the ad- The fall in automobile production vantage of the world's largest domestic since 1979 is only partly due to soaring tnarket. American manufacturers were lbel prices and high interest rates. Also unable to fend off the challenge from the contributing has been the slowdown in fuel.efficient, high-quality. lower priced global economic growth since 1979a Japanese vehicles.(See Figure 9.3.) slowdown to the point where overall Table 9-2. World Oil and Automobile Production, 1950-83 Oil Price Oil Automobile Period Per Barrel Production Product ion (dollars) (percent ambial change) 1959-73 2 7.6 5.8 1973-79 12 2.0 1.1 1979-83 31 5.2 3.0 socuers: :Wyman Petroleum Institute.Bow Nook,* Data Book (WashingtonD.C.: 1983). Motor Vehicle numbs timers Assoc imion. Itor/dMoto* rditik Data Book. 19$2 Edthon(lkiroti: Mitt.: 1982).

176 Itemostdertng the Automobile's Future (161) Million 1978 are numerous and diverse. Coming 10 on the heels of a tripling of world automobile output in less than two decades Unite.1 States' and at a time when rapid growth was projected in world auto sales, the downturn was traumatic, to say the least, especially in the United States. It drove some of the world's largest automobile manu- 5 facturers to the brink of bankruptcy; others survived only by merging. The most immediate social impact was rising unemployment among automobile assembly-line workers. Among the major producers the rise in lost jobs was iSolom Motor Vehtele most pronounced in the United States. ... Mattufait. Aws, After peaking in 1978 at over one mil - -, lion, U.S. auto industry employment de- 1950 19110 1970 1980 1985 dined steadily in each of the next three Figure 9.3. Produrtion of Passenger Cars, years. By 1982 one-third of the work United States and Japan, 1950.83 force was unemployed.0 In some cases, a reduction in the number of shifts in a worldonomic growth barely matches given plant caused the unemployment. that of population. The result is stagnat- In others, plants closed. From 1978 ing per capita income and purchasing through 1981 some 20 U.S. automobile power. Without income gains, the num- assembly plants shut down. Many. such ber of consumers who can afford au- as the Ford plants producing full-sized tomobiles will remain limited. In addi- cars in Los Angeles and in Mahwah, New tion, governmental tax policies in many Jersey. closed permanently.12 countries are discouraging automobile Thousands of small firms supplying ownership. In many Third World coun- parts to the major auto manufacturers tries that do not assemble their own au- were also hit hard. In 1979, the U.S. De- tomobiles, import duties arc used to dis- partment of Transportation estimated couragevehicleownership,10The that the American auto industry spent combination of these economic trends 573 billion on materials, parts, services, dampening consinner demand and gov- and equipment. Of this, some $55 bil- ernmentalpoliciesdiscouragingcar lion was spent in the United States, pro- ownership may prevent a resumption in viding an estimated 1.4 million jobs. As the growth in demand for automobiles a result of the 1978-82 downturn, an es- that has characterized most of this cen- timated half-million jobs were lost in tury. firms that supplied parts and components.13 The ripple effects also reach all the way to the manufacturers of basic automotive raw materials such as steel, rub- EFFECTS OF THE ber, and glass. Each of these industries PRODUCTION DECLINE has been affected both by the reduced vehicle output and by downsizing. With The effects of the four-year, 15 percent the auto industry accounting for close to decline in world auto production since one-quarter of U.S, consumption of iron

177 (162) State of the WorldI984 and steel. and with the average weight of Table 9.3. United States: Gasoline a new car dropping. the demand for steel Service Stations, 1970 -83' fell sharply, further depressing an industry already in the doldrums. Not all the Service Year Stations news is bad. however. because the downsizing in Detroit is generating a demand 1970 220,000 for lighter. stronger. more expensive 1971 220.000 steel. Although the volume of steel sales 1972 226,500 to the automobile industry may be down. 1973 215,900 unit profits are up.11 The amount of rub- 1974 196.100 ber used by the automobile industry has 1975 180.500 also declined, both in new cars and as 1976 186,800 replacement tires on used cars. Projec- 1077 176,500 tions indicate that by 1985 a majority of 1978 172.300 American vehicles will be rolling on 13- 1979 164.800 inch tires rather than the more traditional 15-inch ones.I5 1980 158,500 The stresses of the downturn have 1981 151,200 heen no less severe on the industries at 1982 144,700 the consumer end of the marketing 19832 139.200 chain. The number of U.S. automobile I Docs not include outlet% at convenience stores. dealerships has been gradually declining etc . %here gasoline accounic (or less than half of since 1950 as the larger, more efficient total sales.fPrelittonary. 'Wiwi:: Votional Petroleum Yews Fad Book, 1983 dealers acquire more of the market, but (Chicago: Hunter !publishing Co., 1003). the rateof dealership closingsac- celerated in the early eighties. During Completing the circle of the far-rang- 1978, for example. 144 new-car dealers ing impact of rising oil rices, U.S. gaso- closed their doors; by 1980, this had in- line sales were hurt by falling auto sales, creased to 1,558a near-record de- by the rising fuel efficiency of the cars of cline,I6 the road, and by a decline in miles driven. After increasing from 24.3 bil- pillion Gallons lion gallons in 1950 to an all-time high of 100 83.8 billion gallons M 1978, the amount of gasoline used in passenger cars dropped to 73.7 billion gallons by 1980. After this precipitous fallI2 percent within two yearsthe decline slowed markedly M 1982 at -:d 1983." (See Fig- ure 9-4.) The number of service stations. already affected by a movement toward larger outlets, fell even faster than gasoline sales. Between 1972, when the num ber of U.S. service stations peaked at 226,500, and 1983 over 87,000 stations 1950 11160 19'70 19130 1985 closed, (See Table 9.3.) If the projected Figure 9.4. Consumption of Gasoline by gains in U.S.fleet fuel efficiency mated U.S. Passenger Cars, 195042 alize, more service stations are likely to

178

1 Recoundertug the elutomobt:e's Future (163) go out of business. reducing tbital to Moles perhaps half or less of the 1974 peak. Per Callon A11 in all, the second oil price increase 30 had a far greater impact than the first Federal Standards one. The world auto industry could adjust with a modest effort to the 1973 in- 20- crease, but the 1979 jump that pushed New Cars prices beyond $30 per barrel posed extraordinarily difficult problems. The first kie-e i Average.-'- ---/- price rise could have beet' handled 10- largely by downsizing automobiles and increasing fuel efficiency. The second Sources: Federal Highway Adiiun.; one, however, has forced a general Motor Veluck Maeufact. Assn. reevaluation of the wisdom 41f depend- I ing heavily on cars as a primary source of 1950 1960 11170 1480 1985 mobility. Figure 9-5. U.S. Automobile Fuel Efficiency. 195045 new cars over the next three years even faster than required. The combination of rising fuel prices FUEL EFFICIENCY GAINS and the federal efficiency standards led to a pronounced shift toward small cars. A smooth transition to a sustainable society depends on the far more efficient In 1970, some 37 percent ofall new cars use of liquid fuels. And since close to sold in the Untied States were subcom- one-third of all oil is burned in automo- pacts and --inpacts. Large carsthe biles, designing cars that are more fuel- luxury, scanrd. and intermediate sizes efficient is the key. Worldwide, the ad- accounted for 65 percent. By' 1981 juvalent has thus far been concentrated these proportions had been roughly re- inol.e United States, which at the time of versed, with large cars representing the 19'i6 Automotive Fuel Efficiency Act about 35 percent of sales and small cars accounted for roughly half of world gas 65 percent. (See Table 9-4.) Marked de- ohne consumption. clines in U.S. gasoline prices in 1982 and Between -1950 and the 1973 oil price 1983, however, renewed buyer interest hike, the size and horsepower of the av- in larger cars, and the small-car share of erage U.S. automobile increased stead- sales dropped for the first time since the ily, with the result that overall fuel effi 1979 oil price hike. ciency gradually declined, reaching a To achieve the efficiency called for in low of 13.1 miles per gallcn in 1973.18 the fedet al standards and demanded by (S,.Figure 9.5.) The purpose of the the market, Detroit iindertbok a massive 1916 legislation, which was to apply to downsizing of new tars. The principal each year's new models from 1978 techniques used were weight reduction through 1985, was t Jughly to double the an a shift to smaller...less powerful en- fuel efficiency of American cars. Tbe:i gines. In 1975 the average new car pro- shortly after Detroit had begun the mas- duced in Detroit weighed 3,970 pounds. sive redesign ofmnomobiles required to roughly two tons. Bin by 1982 the aver- achieve the federal standards. the 1979 age weight had dropped to3.001 oil price hike created market conditions pounds, a reduction ofone-fourth in five that raised the average fuel efficiency of years.19 179 (164) State of Me World -1984

Table 9-4. United States: Passenger assure a market for it.20 Car Sales by She, 1970 -82' Other steps to improve fuel efficiency include adopting front-wheel drive and Small Large Total Small-Ca manual transmission and paying greater Year Car. Car. Sales2 Share attention to aerodynamics. As recently (million) (pen ent) as 1977 there were no front-wheel drive 1970 3.1 5.3 8 4 37 vehicles coming out of Detroit. By 1985, 1971 3.9 6.3 102 38 the overwhelming majority of American- 1972 4 2 0.8 10.9 38 made automobiles will have front-wheel 1973 4 9 6.5 1 I.4 43 drive. And manual transmissions should 1974 4.3 4.5 8.9 49 account for 17 percent of all American cars by then.21 1975 16 4.() 8.6 53 Overall,. the1975-82 periodwit- 1970 4.9 5.2 10.1 49 nessed a major transformation of the 1977 5.4 5.8 11.2 48 automobileindustry,onefar 1978 5.7 11.3 49 greater than any since its fledgling stage 1979 5 9 4.7 10.7 56 at the turn of the century. The transfor- 1980 5.7 3.3 9.0 63 mation has been not only in the design, 1981 5 5 3.0 8 6 65 performance. and appearance of the au- 1982 5.0 3.0 8.0 62 tomobile, but of the entire automotive 1"Small" (Argon me lode% sub(ompats. tom. industry and, because of its dominant pat ts and unporo. "large- includes intermediate. role, of the U.S. economy itself. standard, awl loam% (an :Ma. not 4111(1 due to rounding. SOMCE- NiOtor Vail( Matitifactureri Mocta- (too. Moot Mule Farts and Figures '83(Detroit. Renault plans to have a vehicle on Mich . 1983) the market by 1985 that will get 80 The shift to less powerfid, more fuel- miles per gallon on the highway. efficient engines is equally impressive. As recently as 1977, 76 percent of all U.Smanpfacturedautomobiles had Although the shift toward fuel effi- fight-c tinder engines. (See Table 9-5.) ciency was most dramatic in the United Since then. their share of the market has States, it was a worldwide phenomenon. fallen precipitously. averaging 28 per- West Germany, Japan, and the United cent during the early eighties. Mean- Kingdom were al.,o taking steps to in- while. six - cylinder engines have picked crease the fuel efficiency of new automo- up some of 'It was once the eight- biles. In West Germany, automakers ("finder ma ..eq. increasing their market agreed at the time of the 1979 oil price share from one-fifth to one-third. At hike to raise the fuel efficiency of their the most efficient end of the spectrum. new cars by 10-12 percent. In Japan, leg- the number of four-cylinder engines islation was passed that same year set- jumped from less than 10 percent of ting a 32-mile-per-gallon average for the market during the mid-seventies to new cars by 1982, (By comparison, the 41 percent in 1982. In addition to the U.S. standard for 1985 is 27.5 miles per pronounced shift ,owaid four - cylinder gallon.) Mexico belatedly responded to engines, 4.;eneral Motors has a three- the need for greater fuel efficiency by q finder. two-passenger commuter ti chi- banning the manufacture of eight-cylin- de in the wings that it may begin manu- der engines as of November 1984.22 facturing if fuel costs rist enough to Even as governments were raising fuel

1 So Reconsulenng the Automobile's Future (165) Table 94. United Stater The Changing New Car, 1975 -821 A%erar Model Average Number of Cv ',niers Per Engine? Fuel Year Weight 8 6 4 &oilcan% (pounds) (percent) (miles per gallon) 1975 4.058 72 19 9 100 14.7 1976 4.059 60 21 10 100 1(1.5 1977 3.944 76 18 6 100 17.1 1978 3.589 66 24 10 100 18.6 1979 3.485 57 24 19 100 19.0 1980 3,101 32 314 30 100 '21.2 1981 3.099 24 35 41 100 235 198:: 3.001 27 32 41 100 24.6 'Excludes imports.rl otal excludes diesel engines sot licfrA Niourt Veliu he Nlaitirm turas %iiu iation, Mow i chub boa, aid her" '83tlktrtuMoth 1983). Philip Patterson. l' S Department ol hulls. prisme commune( at ))))) . (k tuber 12. 1983 efficiency stamtuds. it became clear that In the United States, the General Mo- cars could be far more fuel-efficient than tors three-cylinder vehicle mentioned they are now_ In the United States. the earlier can get 86 miles per gallon at a Battelle Memorial Institute, one of the steady 25 miles per hour. and 60 miles world's larg. st consulting firms. chal- per gallon on the highway. Although the lenged its engineers to design a four- engineering of this vehicle is largely passenger car that could get 100 miles completed. plans to move the demon- per gallon. Their response was a vehicle stration model into production are un- thatwould weigh justover1.000 certain. pounds: it would have a variable speed In Japan, six of nine automobile transmission with a microprocessor ad- manufacturers are marketing mini-cars. justing engine speed to achieve maxi- with engines of less than ',50 cubic centi- mum fuel efficiency. Using only cur- meters. This is less than half the size of rently available technologies, the the engine in yesteryear's small cars. engineers showed that with a diesel en- such as the internationally marketed gine this automobile could get 100-105 Volkswagen Rabbit, or the Japanese cars miles per gallon. Even with a conven- now marketed in the United States and tional gasoline e' ;Me it could get 80-86 Europe, which have engine displace- tulles per galloti.is ments of roughly 1,200 cubic centime- Individual manufacture! s ,were also ters. tk, moving forward.InFrank:, Renault The Japanese ni ;PI ; .srt roil*?*?rage plans to have a vehicle on the market by tnore than 50 indef. pc- !cation/ or 1985 that will get 80 miles per gallon on roughly double the federal requirements the highway. Across the channel. BL Ltd. for U.S. vehicles in 1985. Weighing an (formerly British Leyland) began mar- average of 1.200 pounds, these vehicles keting a "mini-metro" in late 1980. At a were selling for 32.0004000 in Japan in steady 30 miles per hour, it can get 83 1983. Sales of mini-cars and aim mini- miles per gallon; in variable-speed urban truck equivalents there totalvd 1.3 mil- driving, it can average 41 miles per gal. lion in 1982.25 With thew small, highly Ion. BL plans to market this vehicle onh efficient vehicles already in production, in the United Kingdom and Europc.24 theJapanese are well positioned tt tyke

JR?. (166) State of the World-1984 advantage of the next sat gi in world oil major oil companies developed plans to prices. The combination of economic invest heavily in coal liquefaction during conditions and future fuel price projec- thelate seventies, but unfortunately tions indicates a growing worldwide nearly all these were abandoned because market for thew smaller cars that pro- they were not economical. % ide adequate tramportatton at much Reserves of a second source of liquid lower purchase and operational prices. fueltar sandsin Canada, the United States, Colombia. and Venezuela contain as much petroleum as the oil fields of the Middle East. but the economic and environmental costs of extracting it are ALTERNATIre, FUEL high. Leadership in this field has come from a Canadian r .iisortium that in- PROSPECTS cludes the government and major oil Governments, automobile manufactu companies. A $2- billion commercial fa- ers, and car owners are all keenly inter- cility located in the Athabasca River Basin of western Canada was designed ested in the development of alternative to produce 100,000 barr.:.le of oil per automotive Inds in light of the inevitable day. but thus far has managed to pro- depletion of oil reserves. Although there duce only half that amount,' are many potential sources of automo- Extracting oil from shale deposits is tive fuel beyond the conventional re- even more difficult and costly than observes of oil, progress in developing taining it from tar sands. Some of the them has been limited to a few countries. world's richestoil shale deposits are Prominent among the new fossil fuel found in the western United States, in sources of liquid fuel are coal, tar sands. Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, where and oil shale. Th technology for lique- the oil is tightly locked into rock forma- fying coal was developed by the Ger- tions just beneath the surface. Although mans in the twenties and thirties and several companies, mostly in the oil busi- used extensively during World War 11 tc ness, are interested in exploiting this po- subsinute for imported oil as supplies tential, the possibility for doing so seems were cut off. After the war, however, always to recede as the cost of extraction Wes! Germany quickly returned to refin- continuously rises beyond the current ing imported oil, a much cheaper fuel. world price of oil. As of mid-1983 the As of 1984. only one country. South U.S. Synthetic FuelsCorporation, Africa, is producing liquid fuel from coal launched in1979, has had trouble on a meaningful scale. For political rea- finding commerc:.'ty viable synfuel pro- sons. South Africa has always felt :)artic- jects to fund,te Projects to develop oil Wady vulnerable to ewbargoes by vari- shale, to liquefy and, gasify coal, or to ous ltill suppliers and has accordingly convert peat into liquid fuel have rarely made a strong effort to develop liquid proved worthy of the corporation's sup- fuels from its extensive coal reserves. inn. The first commercial plant began opera- Another potentially important com- tion in 1959, suppling some 10 percent 'racial automotive fuelis electricity. of the countWs automotive fuel. Since Here the constraint is the difficulty of then output has expanded to the point designing an economically feasible elec- where close to half of South Africa's au- tric car. One o f the drawbacks of existing tomotive fuel now comes from liquefied electric autos is limited range, which coal.% Other national governments and suggests they are tatter suited for coin-

112 nernpsulering theelute rnobek's Future (t67) muting and short. hired-route commer- Table 9-6. Brazil. Estimated Prodt 'on of cial applications than for long-distance Alcohol Fuel from Sugarcane, 1976-83, road trips. The basic technoiogy is ap- With Projections to 1985' propriate for various specialized pur- Alcohol poses. such as forlifts in warehouses. Cropland rear Fuel Required' where the fumes from internal combustion engries are unhealthy. or gulf carts. (million (thousand which m. quite light, travel only short liters) hectares) distances. and require little power. The 1970 175 47 cost of periodically replacing the batter- 1971 238 64 ies an electric cars is often prohibitive. 1972 413 112 F.s en though these can be recharged 1971 286 77 daily 'rout conventional electricity out- 1974 175 47 lets. they wear out within a year or two. Nevertheless, the technology does seem 1975 175 47 well suited to countries that have an 1976 175 47 Abundant e of (heap hydroelectricity. 1977 636 172 'Iltemostsuccessful hiologically 1978 1,510 08 based hvitt het lc fuel venture to date is 1970 2,210 597 the development of sugarcane-derived 1980 2.591 700 alcohol Weis in Brazil. At a stage of rapid 1981 1.036 820 industrialization and dependent on isn- 1982 4.165 1.126 ports for 85 percent cif its oil. Brazil has 1983 4.546 !.229 felt vulnerable to soaring oil prices and to supply disniptions. It has attempted 1985 9.173 2.479 to compensate for this by developing in- I Worldwatch Institute etitmates dented from digenous liquid fuel sources. With a published figures and oth(oal projection.. *Crop- poor endowment of fossil fuels but a rel- laial area bated on 1980 cane yields and an alcohol tont ersion rate of 3,700 liters per hectare ative abundance of land. the govern- summer World Energy Indusit v. Thr burp Decade ment decided in 1975 to launch a mas- 1970-80 (Cambndge. Mass . Ballinger publishottg sive alcohol fuels project intended to Go .1982). Journal of Comoseser. April 5. 1983: achieve liquid-fuel self-sufficiency by the Worldwatch Instetute estimates. end of the century, if not before. engines designed specifically to rur on By 1983. Brazil was producing 4.5 bil- alcohol. By early 1981 a majority of new lion liters (nearly 1.2 hiilion gallons) of cars purchased in Brazil had alcohol fuel alcohol motor fuel in some 280 distilleries that dot the couttuysid.. (See Table engines and well over a million hectares 9-6.) Supplying close to one-quarter of (1hectare equals 2.47 acres) were planted to sugarcane for the production 1 .. automotive fuel consumed. these witslleries are supplanting the oil refin- of alcohol. eries on which Brazilians traditionally The United States is the second larg- depended."' Cars run on alcohol both in est alcohol-fuel producer. Although the combination with gasoline and by itself. U.S. Government has abandoned the Initially Brazil exploited the ability of 1985 production goal of 2 billion gallons conventional engines to burn a gasoline- that was established in 197q, some 375 alt ohol mix containing up to 20 percent million gallons of alcohol fuel were pro- alcohol without adjustment. At the same duced in 19'_'3. accounting for 0.5 per- time the government required automak- cent of national auto fuel consumption. ers to begin i.roductng automobiles with Most of this came from corn and is used

183 (168) Stair of the world -1984 as an octane enhances, mixed in small realized, this approach is likely to con- quantities with conventional gasoline. In tinue to dwarf the contribution of alter- agricultural terms, this required 135 mil- native fuels hetween now and the end of lion hushels of corn (nearly 2 percent of the century. a typical U.S. harvest) and 1.3 million acres, which is 0.4 percent of U.S. cropland. (See Table 9.7.) The United States produced about one-fifth as much alcohol fuel as Brazils° A TIME OF REASSESSMENT As indicated, most projections of the In China, which has only one-tenth world automobile fleet have assumed there would be dramatic growth over the of a hectare of cropland per per- remainder of this century. Typical of son, there simply is no room for these is an Organisation for Economic cars. Co-operation and Development study completed in 1979 that projected world automobile ownership would expand at Es entually the relative contrihutions a steady 3 percent per year duringthe of nu reusedfuel efficiency and alterna- eighties and nineties, nearly doubling tne fuels will gradually shift toward the fleet size by the end of the century. David latter as the potential efficiency gains are Bayliss,ttansportplannerforthe wrung out of the automotite system. Greater London Council, has compiled Thus far, however, the adjustment be- the results of 18 studies, all but three of tween the potential excess of worldwide them done in the eighties, that project demand for automotive fuel over the annual automobile sale:,co the year avail.thlesupply has been achieved 2000. The highest projected for that largely through reducing demand rather year is 72 million, in a study completed than through producing new fuels. And in 19-8. This would be more than dou- for some titneto come fuel efficiency ble the peak figure of just under 32 mil- gains will remain far cheaper than devel- lion in 1978 and close to triple the 27 oping alternathe fuels. Indeed, with the million sold in 1983. At the low end of gains in efficiency that have yet to be the spectrum is a 1983 study that pro- Table 9.7. United States: Production of Fuel Alcohol From Corn, 1980-84 Corn Used Areain Fuel foe Fuel Corn for Alcohol Year' Alcohol Fuel Alcohol' Production' '.4"(ti I ot (million (million ;.5- bushels)) acres) ,gallons) 1980 ;. 13 0 14 6 58 11)81 e 33 0.33 I! 83 1982 80 0,76 i Z0 19834 ;t 135 1.2$ 375 11)84$ .' IVO 1.52 440 IFescaf car ei 'g Ottaber 1 of sear shown.'Assumes lield of 105 bushels p& acre.'All fuel alcohol is marketed as gasoholglerelimitiar!. estimate Projection sot acts r iiptiblished data front t'S1)1 Pa nomic Research Service, Worldwatch Institute.

1S4 Ileionsidering the Automobile's Future ( 169 t jested 46 million cars would be sold at with how fuel costs boost foreign ex- the end of the century. an increase of 70 change outlays if the country is among percent over 1983 sales.31 the overwhelming majority that import Even studies done after the 1979 oil oil. At the individual level, fuel costs are price sncrease show continuing substan. an important expense and when they tial growth in the world automobile fleet. rise faster than real int cone they discour- The average of the set of projections age auto use and ownership. And that's summarized by Bayliss anticipates 550 just what they are expected to do. The inillion cars by the end of the century, an cost in real terms has risen markedly increase of nearly four-fifths vs er 1980. os er the past decade and it is projected Associated with this would he growth in o continue to rise throughout the rest of annual sales from about 30 million in this century. Although there may he 1980 to 42 million in 1090 and 56 mil- shortterm declines in world oil prices. lion in the year 2000.32 as in 1983, the long-term trend is dearly Unfortunately, most projections are upward. hased on a mums set of cons entional An autontohile-centered transporta- assumptions that exc hide the many tion sy stem is land-intensive. Parking a factors shaping the automobile's fit. ture. subcompact requires a 10 -by -20 -foot Few, for example. appear to bane ac- plot of land. so a parking lot to accom- counted fulls for the cost of developing modate 200 vehicles requires an acre. In alternative filch. Nor have any pelt se- addition to needing several parking rious consideration to the equity issues spots per automobile, land is required arising as the changing economic out- for streets. roads. and highways. In some lookpermanentlylimitsautomobile densely populated countries there is ownership to a small elite in most «inn- simply not enough land to support a tries in Eastern Europe and the Third fleet of automohiles. In China, for exam- World. ple. which has only one-tenth of a hect- Although initially questions ahout the are of cropland per person. there siniply future of the automohile arose from the is no room for cars. This is one reason sharp increase in fuel costs an 1973. dur- why China. which exports a million bar- ing the following decade numerous rels of oil a day. has virtually no private other factors led go%ernments and in- atnomobiles.33 Other areas unable to de- dividuals to reexamine the role of the s clop a full - fledged auto-centered trans- automobile. These other infinences on portation system because of land short- the auto's future include land availabil- ages include Bangladesh. Egypt. and he ity. the cost of vehicle ownership and island of,Java, where most Indonesians maintenance. the saturation of sonic live. markets, the slowdown in economic Only relatively affluent individuals can growth both globally and in particular afford to purchase and operate an auto- MURALS that void(' otherwise de%elop an mobile. Without awincome well ahose auto manufacturing sector. the extent of the world average. such a costly trans- international indebtedness, urban traffic portation %chicle is just far beyond the congestion and air pollution. and a de- range of consumers. Until recently, it dine in the status tradinonally accorded was widely assumed that income levels" auto ownership. throughout the world would continue to Fuel costs influence the was national rise rapidls lot the indefinite future. thus policymakers as well as potential owners bringing cars within the range of more think about the automobile. At the na- and more people. With the slowdown in tional loci go% ernments are concerned glohal economic growth. howeser, par-

185 11701 StateofMe World-1984 ocularly suite 1979. gams in per capita far from saturation. Mexico. an oil ex- income have been modest. creating few porter. has one car for every 21 people new automobile owners. while Brazil, an oil importer, has one for At the affluent end of the economic every 16. For the world as a whole the spectrum, some national markets are average is 14 people per car, a figure that becoming saturated with automobiles. is a far cry from either 2 people per car The United States. for example. is ap- in the United States of 18,000 per car in proaching market saturation, with more China. than half as many cars as people, So. too. As economic growth slows, so does are other affluent industrial societies. the growth in public revenuesthe very such as K est Germany, France, and monies needed to create the infrastruc- Italy, with an average of one car for every ture of streets, roads, highways, and three people. (See Table 9 -8.) The bridges needed to support automobiles. United Kingdom and Japan are also With national budgetary deficits on the probably nearing the saturation point. rise almost everywhere, public outlays oartly for space reasons. Most Third for such things will be harder to come World countries. on the other hand, are by. Likewise, slower growth will make it Table 9.8. Prevalence of Passenger Cars in the Twenty Most Populous Countries, 1981

Passenger Car People Comas Population Registrations Per Car (thousand) (number) United States 232 121,724 2 Nest German 62 23,236 3 Hance 54 19.150 3 It* 571. 17.696 3 :tilted Kingdom 56 15.438 4

Japan 119 23.660 5 Brazil 128 8.213 16 Mexico 71 3,360 21 Soviet Union 270 8.255 33 Iran 39 1.028 38

TurLes 48 711 68 Philippines 52 550 95 Egypt 45 428 105 Thailand 50 435 115 Nigeria 82 500 164 s Indonesia 192 637 239 Pakistan 1$3 264 352 India 714 930 768 BangIadrilt 93 22 4,227 China 997 55 18..37

World 1,585 320.513 14 sill actsMotor Vehicle Manufacturers Assoc..dion. IVerid Mew rthatle Pala Book1982 Edition(De- (rumMich !Mt,Population ReferenceBureau,i9e1 rtior14 Popul4slion Data Sheet(Washington D C. 19M1) 4- silt/ Rerofmtienng the Automobile's Future (171) more chfinult for the prvate UAW! to pm e of gasoline in mid-1983. by 40 per- aniass capital for investment in new t mu. before die Fund would agree to manufacturing capacity.. especially on provide assistance." the scale needed if sales are to double by 2000.1n commies where fleet expansion is projected. additional capital will be re- Heavily burdened with debt, many quired for investment in dealerships. nations can no longer afford to im- service stations. and repair garages. The growth in international indebted- port oil for an ever-expanding au- ness during the late seventies and the tomobilefleet. early eighties. which reached an astronomical $750 billion during 1983, is concentrated in Eastern Europe and the In an effort to reduce oil in ipons and Third World. in precisely those coun- maintain its international tredit-worthi- tries where the growth in autos is pro- ness. Yugoslavia adopted a nitioning jected to be greatest." Heavily bur- system in 1982 that litnited motorists to dened with deist. many of these nations 13 gallons per month. Poland. which is can no longer afford to import oil for an in arrears in Interest payments on its in- ever-expanding automobile fleet.In- ternational debt and which imports oil. deed. among the conditions often im- has adopted stringent controls on gasp. posed by the International Monetary line use. In tare 1983. gasoline purchases Fund to assist governments with foreign were rationed to 9 gallons per month. exchange deficits is a higher price or tax not nearly enough to permit regular on gasoline. In short. for many countries use." the existing international debt situation. Questions of equity also arise in con- which is likely to dominate national eco- sidering the ['mule of the autontohile. nomic policies and priorities well into Although owning a car is essential to the the nineties. Is not conducive to the continuing evolution of an automohile-cen- existing life-styles of ruling elites in the tered transportation system. Third World, it will becoute more and Countries that export petroleum as more difficult to justify the use of a large well as those that import it are reassess- share of a country's foreign exchange to ing the autoinobilesfuture. Under import fuel, parts. or even new vehicles prodding from the international Mone- themselves. Earlier, when it could be as- tary Fmul to boost federal revenues and sumed thatrapid economic growth reduce domestic oil use. the Mexican would conninw exponentially.itwas Governmentraised gasolineprices reasonahle to think that ;lieu people sharply in 1983. Although the new price who wanted a car would eventualli own of 700 per gallon for regular gasoline (at one. regardless of where they lived. As it the (Mica exchange rate) was still low becomes clear that this is not a reason- by intertiationalstandards.itrepre- able prospect. then the use of the tech sented ck sixfold increase in peso terms nology itself. which is elitist in n4tqfp,. from tilk price at the beginning of 1983. will be increasingly questioned. ' 1.1 1'011141y unpopular though it was, this Yet another constraint on atiloS is raising of gasoline prices closer to world growing urban traffic congestion. Lang a levels helped reserse the trend in oil problem in the countries that first turned consumption. which had grown some 10 to the automobile. it is now a cause for percent per year from 1976 through concern in many Third World cities as 1981. Brazil was also forced to raise the well. Monumental traffic jams that can

187 1172) State of Mt WorldI984 last for hours oit in regularly in Mexico Million City. Lagos. and Bangkok. Ait pollution. 3 too. is a serious problem. particularly in the Third World. Seoul and Mexico City Stealers now reportedly have sonic of the worst air pollution fotid anywhere. largely because of auto emEsions. The combination of traffic congestion, traffic noise, Denmark and air pollution has led many cities to impose restrictions on the use of au- Source: Motor Vehicle tomobiles. These range from increased Manufacturers Assn. bridge tolls, as in Manhattan. to restric- i965 107u 1975 1980 1985 tions on cars carrying onl one person. Figure 94. Automobile Registrations, Sweden as m Singapore. and Denmark, 196542 Even some industrial societies. particularly those that import oil, are begin- At the same time that it is discourag- ning to base second thoughts about the ing automobile ownership, the Danish litture of the automobile. Prominent Government has stepped up investment among the affluent societies that are in public transport, with bus registra- reexamining their attitudes are Denmark tions increasing by over one-third be- and Sweden. For Danes, who pay for tween 1973 and 1981.38 The goal has their imported oil largely with farm pro- been to provide speedy, convenient ducts, the shift in the terms of trade be- transportation that is cheaper than that tween oil and agricultural commodities. provided by automobiles, thus reducing describedinChapter1.has been new car purchases below the number of economically devastating. If the Danish old cars retired. auto fleet continues to grow, further in- Sweden has also acted vigorously to creasing the demand for imported oil, it discourage the growth in automobile could so weaken the economy that a de- ownership.After increasingsteadily cline in living standards might be inevi- from mid-century until 1976, growth in table. to avoid this unhappy possibility. the Swedish auto fleet has stopped, re- Denmark has adopted a number of poli- maining essentiallystaticthrough cies to discourage private automobile 1981.39 It seems likely that over time the ownership, including a high tax on gaso- forces that halted the growth of the auto- line and s:iff parking fees for motorists. mobile fleet will intensify and lead to a In addition, the Danish Government ha4 gradual decline. launched a campaign to educate people At the other end of the income spec- on the national economic dangers of trum, Peru demonstrates rather graph- continuing to rely heavily on private ically the changes that can occur in the cars. As public undorstanding rises, auto outlook for the automobile in the Third ownership has become socially less de- World. Over a decade ago, Peru signed sirable. leading to a decline in the auto- a pact with other Andean countries to mobile fleet, the first national decline on produce automobiles, with each country record. Since 1979, when the Danish au- producing certain of the basic compo- tomobile fleet totaled 1.42 million au- nents and with final assembly being tomobiles. it has fallen to 1.36 million. a done domestically. In Peru, which had drop of home '3 percent.37 (See Figure been manufacturing an average of 17,- 9-63 000 cars per year in the late sixties, this

188 Reromidering the Automobile's Future (173) led to an ma ease to osei 34,000 by sectors as agriculture, renewable energy 1976.4° (See Figure 9-7.) industries, andeducationactivities At this point. several economic prob- that would bet... -. more of the popula- lems brought the growth in production tion. to a halt. Among other things, the col- It is quite possible that at the end of lapse of the country's anchos) fishery the ( entury a number of countries will sharpy reduced the foreign exchange base even fewer automobiles than they available to import oil. Shottly there. l 0 today. Others may join China and after the international Monetary Fund ban the private automobile except in required a sesere restriction in con- special situations. Although some coun- sumer credit as a condition for addi- tries, principally oil exporters, may seek tional loans. lit 1979 the gasoline price to expand their fleets rapidly, others may was doubled. Real incomes us Peril were base second thoughts about investing not increasing during this period. in- heavily in a technology that depends on deed, in some years economic growth a nonrenewable resource. Accordingly, was fading to keep pace with population they may shift their emphasis toward the growth. Between 1976 and 1978. auto- development of rail- and bus-centered mobile production fell to just over 11.. transportation systems. Such a move 000 vein( les. By 1981 it had recovered would also facilitate more-efficient land somewhat, to ()set 20,000 vehicles, but use, itself an issue of widening concern. the future of the nulustis is nonetheless Already, many forward-looking nas in question 41 tional governments are following the There are many reasons to question lead of Denmark and Sweden in devising whether automobile production in Peru policiesto discourage auto.centered will eser be significant. Indeed. does it transport systems. Some are using a gas- make sense for Peru to continue to de- oline tax very effectively for this pur- setup an automobile industry ? It might pose: in several European countries, the fare bow: if it abandoned the automo- tax on gasoline exceeds the value of the bile-t enteredindustrialdevelopment fuel itself. In other countries, where the model and shifted its resources into sm h price of gasoline is set by government either because of a state oil monopoly or 1 hot sand public sector dominance (such as Mex- 411 ico or the Soviet Union), the price of gasoline has been raised to discourage car purchases. A number of Third World countries that import automobiles, such as Kenya. are resorting to a stiff import duty, one that sometimes exceeds the market value of the vehicle. The Interna- tional Monetary Fund, in its attempt to promote international monetary stability, is also urging higher taws on gasoline as a way to supplement market Source Motor EA& Mantspriuteli Ain forces that promote reduced dependence on imported oi1.42 I I I 19 35.70 1971 197 5 198111982 Each country must decide what place Figure 94. Motor Vehicle Production the automobile will occupy in its trans- in Peru. 1965-81 portation system in the post-petroleum

189 (174) State of the World-1984 age, since no two fate exactly the same others may abandon private motor vehi- set of constraints. In some, the affluence cles for reasons of equity. Collectively, needed to become a nation of auto own- these pressures suggest the time has ers may never materialize. Others may come for governments everywhere to lack the foreign exchange earnings to reassess the future of the automobile. import oil to fuel a fleet of cars. Still

So 10

Securing Food Supplies Lester R. Brown

Measured just in terms of output. the Union. output has fallen behind demand past generation has been one of un- over the past decade, making the coun- precedented progress in world agt icul- try the largest grain importer in history. lure. In 19M the woi Id's farmers pro- And in Africa. which has a population of duced 623 million tons of grain. In 1983 512 million and which has to feed 14 they produced nearly 1.5 billion tons. million additional people each year, This increase of neatly 900 million tons food production per person has fallen was all the mot e remarkable because it steadily since 1970. Despite a tripling of m t urred.when there was lade new crop- grain imports since then. hunger has be- land to bring under the plow.' come chronic, an enduring part of the On closer examination this 33-ear African landscape. span breaks into two distinct erasbe- The 1983 drought il North America fore and alter the 1973 nil price increase. and Africa must be considered against Modern agriculture thrives on cheap en- this backdrop. The principal effect of the ergy. and the age of cheap energy came precipitous decline in the North Ameri- to an end in 1973. For 23 a; ears world can harvest was a reduction in stocks and food output expanded at over 3 percent a rise in food and feedstuff prices. In per ye.tr and. although they e was con- Africa, where national food reserves are cern about rapid population growth. virtually nonexistent. the drought trans- there was a comfortable margin in the lated into widespread hunger and, in a growth of food production over that of score of countries. the threat of famine.2 population. Since 1973e however. annual growth has been less than 2 percent and the world's farmers have been stntg- Ong to keep pace with population. The global increase in world food °w- THEGLOBALLossOF pm also obscures wide variations In indi- MOMENTUM vidual geographic regions.In North America. production has steadily out- As the world recovered from World War strippeddemand. generatingever- II, hopes for improvement in world agri- larger export surpluses. In the Soviet culture were high. An accumulating

151 (176) State of the World1984 backlog ofagriculturaltechnologies kilograms. A global average, this figure such as hybrid corn and chemical :ertiliz- embraces countries where yearly grain ers were waiting to be applied on a mas- availability per person averages only 150 sive scale. Between 1950 and 1973 world kilograms, requiring that it all be con- grain production more than doubled, to sumed directly, as well as countries nearly 1.3 billion tons. Although output where it exceeds 700 kilograms and is expanded more rapidly in some regions largely converted into meat, milk, and than m others, all regions shared in the eggs! growth. This rising tide of food produc- Since 1973 attention has focused on tion improved nutrition throughout the the impact of petroleum prices on food world, helping to boost life expectancy supply,but demand has also been in the Third World from less than 43 affected. On the supply side, rising oil years in the early fifties to over 53 years prices have increased the costs of basic in the early seventies.' agriculturalinputsfertilizer, pesti- This period of broad-based gains in cides, and fuel for tillage and irrigation nutritional improvement came to an end thus acting as a drag on output. On ni 1973. After the oil price hike that year the demand side of the equation, escalat- the growth in world grain output slowed. ing oil prices combined with in-con- Situ«. 1973 world grain production has ceived national economic policies have expanded At less than 2 percent yearly, contributed to a global economic slow- barely keeping pace with population. down so severe since 1979 that it has (See Table 10-1.) Although the period brought world growth in per capita in- since the 1979 oil price hike is too short come to a virtual halt. Had incomes con- to establish a trend, $30-a-barrel oil may tinued to rise at the same rate after 1973 well slow growth further. as they did before, prices of food com- In per capita terms world grain output modities would have been stronger, thus ch tsed from 248 kilograms in l950 to supporting a more vigorous growth in 326 kilograms nn 1973, an impressive farm investment and output. Agricul- gam of 31 percent. (See Table 10-2.) tural underinvesitnent in Third World Since then, however. annual grain out- countries has also contributed tthe loss put per person has remained around 325 of momentum, but the central point is

Table 10-1. World Oil Price and Crain Production Trends, Total and Per Capita, 1950-83 Annual Growth Grain Oil Price Grant Production "criod Per Barrel Production Population Per Person (dollars/ {percent) 1950-73 2 3.1 1.9 1.2 1973-79 12 1.9 1.8 0.1 1979-83 31 1.01 1.7 -0.7 'Snerc though' in the Vtitied states and Africa and record idling of cropland under U.S. farm programs redu,ed the 1983 world h,mcet well below vend. thus the slowdown in grain prodoiction is co erstated sot acts. Internanonal Nionviar. Fund-Voorhis Miasmal Sinks* s. sallow issties.1.' S. Department of Agri, ulnae. It'fild Indic" a/ *mull:era, arid hod Pram< hon. 1950-32 unpubtosIecl printout) (Washing- ton. 1) C.: 1983), Vinicd Nations. Aloorthls 801.1111 State.stra, various ',sties

192 Seeunng Food Supplies (177) Table 10.2. World Grain Production, building of the past generation has now Total and Per Capita, 1950-83 subsided. With occasional exceptions, most of the remaining potential projects Grain are more difficult, costly, and capital- Popu Grain Production intensive.6 Year lation ProductionPer Person In some situations, irrigated agricul- (billion) (million (kilograms) ture is threatened by falling water tables. metric tons) The southern Great Plains, where much 1950 2.51 623 248 of the U.S. growth in irrigated area over the last two decades has occurred, pro- 1955 2.74 751 274 v.;des a disturbing example. Irrigation 1960 3.03 845 279 there depends almost entirely on water from the Ogallala Aquifer, an essentially 1965 3.34 920 275 nonreplenishable fossil water reserve. 1970 3.68 1.101 299 As the water table in this vast agricul- 1971 3.75 1.194 318 tural area begins to fall with the deple- 1972 3.82 1.161 304_ tion of the aquifer. the cost of irrigation 1973 3.88 1.268 326 rises. Already some farmers in eastern 1974 3.96 1.222 309 Colorado and northern Texas are converting to dryland farming. For the 32 1975 4.03 1.248 310 counties in the Texas Panhandle, the 1976 4.11 1.360 331 U.S. Department of Agriculture projects 1977 4.18 1.334 319 that irrigation will be largely phased out 1978 4.26 1.461 343 by 1995.6 1979 4.34 1.419 327 A somewhat analogous situation exists in the Soviet southwest, where the exces- 1980 4.42 1.440 326 sive diversion of river water for irriga- 1981 4.50 1.491 331 1982 4.58 1.540 336 tion is reducing the water level of the Aral and Caspian seas. This has many 1983 4.66 1.447 310 long-term negative consequences. in- somas: U.S. Department of Agriculture. World Indica of ilgnadlural and Food Produam, 1950-112 cluding a diminished fish catch and the (unpublished printout) (Washington. D.C. 1983): gradual retreat of the water line from United NationsVox:MO Bulky: of Slaltatts. New coastal cities that depend on it for trans- York. various issues. portation.? Given the strong internal pressures within the Soviet Union to that the rise in oil prices. affecting both produce more food, however, the diver- food supply and demand, has brought sion is continuing. the era of robust growth in world food A second major threat to irrigated ag- output to an end. riculture is the often intense competition Oil is not the only resource whose for water between farming, industry, and questionable supply ischecking the cities. In the U.S. Southwest, the irri- growth in food output. As discussed in gated area is actually declining in states Chapter 4, the loss of topsoil through such as Arizona, where Sunbelt migra- erosion is now acting as a dragon efforts tion is swelling cities that are bidding to produce more food. And the scarcity water away from farmers. In agricultur- of water is also beginning to affect food ally important Maricopa County, which production prospects. Since World War had some 550,000 acres under irrigation II, the world irrigated area has more in the fifties,the irrigated area has than doubled, but the flurry of dam shrunk by more than one-fifth.* Nation-

193 (578) Slate of the World I 984 ally the net area under irrigation is pro- Kilograms jected to continue growing over the rest $0 of the century, but at a more modest rate. New research indicates water scarcities are also emerging in Africa. South Africa, adding 720,000 people each year, is fast running out of new irrigation sites. A 1983report of the President's Council in South Africa identified the scarcity of fresh water as a constraint on that country's demographic carrying capacity.9 The worldwide loss of momentum outlined above will not be easily re- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 stored. Although agricultural misman- Figure 104. world Fertiliser Use and Grain Area Per Person, 195043 agement abounds, particularly in the Third World and Eastern Europe, it has more fertilizers. Even urbanization is not worsened appreciably overthe raising demand, since as people move to years. Nor can the situation be explained cities it is harder to recycle the nutrients by any farmers' loss of :kills. The explain human and household waste. Yet the nation lies in the more difficult circum- combination of rising energy costs and stances facing farniers everywhere. In diminishing returns on the use of addi- the mid-eighties it is far more difficult to tional fertilizer raises doubts that ade- raise world food output at a consistent 3 quate food supplies can be produced in percent per year than it was during the the future at prices the world's poor can fifties or sixties. The cheap energy that afford. permitted farmers to override easily the The central importance of the popula- constraints imposed by the scarcity of tion/land /fertilizer relationship is a re- land, soil nutrients, or water is simply no cent phenomenon. Before 1950 in- longer available. creases in food output came largely from expanding the cultivated area, but with the scarcity of fertile new land and the advent of cheap chemical fertilizer this changed. Between1950and1983world. THE POPULATION/LAND/ fertilizer use climbed from15million to FERTILIZER LINK 114 million tons, nearly an eightfold increase within a generation.19 In effect, as The changingrelationship between fertile land became harder to find, farm- world population size, cropland area, ers learned to substitute energy in the and energy supplies bears heavily on the form of chemical fertilizer for land. Fer- human prospect over the remainder of tilizer factories replaced new land as the this century and beyond. Increasingly, principal source of growth in food pro- the energy used in agriculture will be in duction. the form of chemical fertilizer. As popu- This substitution of energy for land is lationgrows, croplandper person graphically evident; In1950,when world shrinksandfertilizerrequirements population totaled2.51 the har- climb. And erosion that has robbed soils vested area of cereals per person was of nutrients is forcing farmers to use 0.24 hectares. (See Figure 10-1.) As

194 Securing Food Supplies OM growthinpopulationgreatlyout- an increase in irrigation is of little conse- stripped that of cultivated area, the area quence if the nutrients to support the per person fell steadily, declining to 0.15 higher yields are lacking. hectares by 1983. While the amount of The response of crops to the use of cropland per person declined by one- additional fertilizer is now diminishing, third. the fertilizer consumption per per- particularly in agriculturally advanced son quintupled, climbing from just over countries. During the fifties. the applica- 5 kilograms in 1950 to 25 kilograms in tion of another ton of fertilizer on aver- 1983. age yielded 11.5 more tons of grain. (See Table 10-3.) During the sixties, the fertilizer/grain response ratio was 8.3 to 1. While the amount of cropland per By the seventies it had fallen to 5.8. person declined by one-third, the Some countries, such as Argentina and fertilizer consumption per person India, still apply relatively little fertilizer and so have quite high response ratios. quintupled. But worldwide the return on the use of additional fertilizer is on the way down. Although the biological constraints on The hybridization of corn and the fertilizer responsiveness can be pushed dwarfing of the wheat and rice varieties back with continued plant breeding, fur- that have been at the heart of Third ther declines seem inevitable. World agricultural advances over the Fertilizer manufacturing is one of the last two decades figured prominently, of world's major industries. In an advanced course. in the growth in world food out- agricultural country such as the United put. So, too, did the doubling of irri- States, expenditures on fertilizer total gated area. But the effectiveness of all some $10 billion per year.33 Three basic these practices depends heavily on the nutrientsnitrogen, which is obtained use of chemical fertilizer. Without an ad- from the air, and phosphate and potash, equate supply of plant nutrients, high- both mined from underground deposits yielding cereal varieties hold little ad- account for the great bulk of world vantage over traditional ones. Likewise, chemical fertilizer production. The in- Table 10.3. World Grain Production and Fertilizer 1.1ae, 193448 to 197941 World World Incremental Grain Fertilizer Grain/Fertilizer Period Production' Increment Use' Increment Response Ratio (million metric tons) (ratio) 1934-38 651 10 1948-52 710 59 14 4 14.8 1959-61 848 138 26 12 11.5 1969-71 1.165 317 64 38 8.3 1979 -81 1.451 286 113 49 5.8 'Annual average for period. sonnets: 1934-38 data from United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAQ). Production Yearbook (Rome: various years): U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Work! Indues of 40mM:rat and Food Prodteuon, 1950-82 (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1083): FAO, Pet0 1977 Annual Peruluer Renew (Rome: 1078): 1979-81 data from Paul Andrilenas, USDA, private cotnmunica lion, December 1982.

195 (18o) State of the R'orld -1984 dustrial fixing of atmospheric nitrogen lizer, the difficulty in restoring the steady in the form of ammonium nitrate, am- upward trend in per capita grain produc- monium sulphate, urea, or other forms tion of 1950-73 becomes clear, of nitrogen fertilizer is an energy-intensive process. Although natural gas is the preferred fuel and feedstock in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, oil figures prominently in the mining, processing, and REAL PRODUCTION TRENDS transportation of phosphate and potash. High energy prices have begun to shift When measuring growth, economists nitrogen fertilizer production from the adjust current prices for the rate of infla- traditional industrial country producers, tion in order to distill out the real gains such as the United States and some in in production. Something similaris Western Europe, to countries with en- needed in agriculture, where growth in ergy surpluses. Investment in this indus- output is inflated by agricultural prac- try has been particularly attractive to oil- tices that are not sustainable. Such an exporting countries that are flaring adjustment would shed light on the excess gas produced in conjunction with longer-term outlook by distinguishing oil. To the extent that fertilizers are between gains that are real and those manufacturedincountriessuchas that are made at the expense of future Saudia Arabia. Iran, or Kuwait with gas output. For example, as farm commodity that would otherwise be wasted, future prices climbed in the mid-seventies U.S. price increases may be curbed. The So- farmers brought land under the plow viet Union, in a situation similar to the that was not suited to cultivation. By gas-surplus countries in the Middle East, 1977 the Soil Conservation Service had is also investing heavily in nitrogen ferti- identified 17 million acres of land in lizer production capacity.it crops that were losing topsoil so rapidly The distribution of phosphate rock, they would eventually be stripped of all the principal source of phosphate fertili- productive value. The agency recom- zer. poses a particular problem since re- mended that farmers convert this land to serves are concentrated in Florida and grass or forests to preserve its produc- Morocco. With production concentrated tion capacities.is To reach a figure of around the Atlantic but with the world's real, not just current, U.S. agricultural population and future needs for phos- output, the yield from these, 17 million phate mainly in Asia, high transporta- acres, roughly 4 percent of thi U.S. don costsand thus highfertilizer cropland total, should be subtracted prices in Asian villagesare inevitable. from overall output. With population growth projected to Similarly,adjustmentsshouldbe continue, the cropland available per per- made for the output from sloping land son will continue to decline and the ferti- that was once in ecologically stable, lizer needed to maintain consumption long-term rotations of row crops with will continue to rise. At some point, bio- grass and hay but that is now in row logical constraints on crop yields will crops continuously, for topsoil loss in make the substitution of fertilizer for these situations has become excessive. If croplandincreasinglydifficult and American farmers were to take the steps costly. When this is combined with the needed to protect their topsoil, U.S. projected long. term rise in real cost of farm output and exports would be sub- the oil and natural gas used to manufac- stantially less in the short run, but they ture, distribute, and apply chemical fet ti- would be sustainable over the long term.

196 .Seeuring Food Supplies (l81) Elimination of this agronomic deficit Billion through a national soil conservation pro- Dollars gram that reintroduced the traditional practices cited above might also eliminate the troublesome short-term commodity surpluses thatdepress farm prices and income. In addition to agronomic deficits, many of the world's farmers are also in- curring economic deficits. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United States, where net farm income has nar- rowed almost to the vanishing point. Be- tween 1973, when the world oil price began its astronomical climb, and 1982, farmers were caught in a squeeze between depressed commodity prices and the soaring costs for fuel, fertilizer, and equipment combined with high interest 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 rates. Figure 104. V.S. Farm Income, Gram and Net, In 1982, many American farmers sold 195043 their products for less than they cost to produce. The U.S. Department of Agri- to the land's productive capacity. Given culture reported that the average price the economics of the early eighties, buy- received by farmers for broilers in that ing U.S. farmland now with the hope of year was below the cost of production. paying for it from the produce would be Many farmers also sold wheat and corn wishfulthinking.Say,for example, for less than the production cost. For someone had invested in prime mid- many, profit margins had virtually disap- western farmland at $2,000 an acre in peared by 1982. (See Figure 10-2.) Be- 1981 and planted it in corn that yielded tween 1950 and 1982, U.S. farm output 110 bushels per acre. With a mortgage at more than doubled, but net farm income 15 percent, the annual interest payment in real terms (1967 dollars) fell from $19 would be $300 an acre. Yet at the 1981 billion in 1950 to scarcely $6 billion in price of $2.40 a bushel, the total income 1982.14 This precipitous decline oc- froth each acre would have been $264, curred whilethe incomes of other not enough to pay the interest, much Americans were rising steadily. less the principal or any of the produc- Farmers were able to sustain the heavy tion costs. losses of the late seventies and early Nevertheless, it was these spiraling eighties only by going deeply into debt, land values that until 1981 enabled many borrowing against soaring land values. farmers to borrow and to stay in busi- But the boom in land speculation came ness. While net farm income has de- to an end in 1981 and land prices fell the clined markedly, farm debt has soared. following two years. As a result, many As recently as 1973, net farm income ex- farmers suddenly lost their equity and ceeded $30 billion compared with a farm fared bankruptcy. debt of $65 billion, a ratio of roughly Economic conditions fostering specu- one to two. (See Figure 10-3.) By 1983, lation in land have driven land value:, to net farm income totaled $22 billion a lofty level that bears little relationship while the farm debt had climbed to $215

-,; (182) Slate of the Worid-1984 Billion most countries. And it is difficult to mea Dollars su the extent to which farm output has 225 be n inflated in recent years by the 20°-Sower: Council of gr wing indebtedness of farmers. If Economic Advisors Farm the adjustments could be made, how- Debt ever, it seems clear that the real world 150 - food output would be far below current consumption.

100 -

50 - Net Farm DEPENDENCE ON NORTH Income AMERICA With grain. as with oil or any other basic 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 resource, excessive world dependence Figgre Ws. U.S. Farm Debt and Net on one geographic region for supplies is Farm Wow, 195043 risky. As the North American share of world grain exports has increased it has billionclose to ten times income.is surpassed the Middle Eastern share of As farmers have borrowed against the oil exports and made the world more soaring prices of their land and other dependent on one region for its food assets. not only have they supported than ever before. themselves and their families, they have This extraordinary dependence on also suhsidized food consumers every- one geographic region for grain supplies where. Borrowing against the inflated is a historically recent phenomenon and paper value of fat inland has led to artifi- gives North America a politically and cally low food prices in recent years. And economicaily strategic role in the world just as productivity increases cannot go food economy. Many of the world's cit on forever when topsoil is being eroded. ies,particularly those inthe Third borrowing that is unrelated to the real World, are fed largely with U.S. and Ca- value of the land cannot continue indefi- nadian wheat. Much of the world's milk, nitelya lesson many rural banks and meat. and eggs are produced with U.S. farmers are unfortunately learning. If feedgrains and soybeans. farmers are to continue to produce, As recently as the late thirties, West- orices of farm products will need to rise. ern Europe was the only grain-deficit re- Without such an 'increase. the more vul- gion and Latin Am.:nca was the world's nerahle farmers and those who have at- leading grain supplier, exporting some tractive employment options or who are nine million tons per year. North Amer- approaching retirement will stop pro- ica and Eastern Europe (including the ducing. eventually reducing output and Soviet Union) each exported five million tnoving prices upward to a more realistic tons of grain annually. Even Asia and level. Africa had modestexportablesur- Although U.S. data might allow the pluses.16 conversion of current farm output to By 1950, the shift from regional grain real output by adjusting for soil erosion, surpluses to deficits was well under way similar information does not exist for and the outlines of a new world grain 198 SOftMligFood Supplies (183) trade pattern were beginning to emerge. ports. (See Table 10 -5.) Today, with North America's unchal- The reasons for North America's lenged dominance as a grain supplier, emergence as the world's dominant sup- international grain trade bears little re- plier of feedgrains and feedstuffs are seinhlance to that of the thirties. (See many, On the supply side, the United Table 10-4.) States inherited a prime piece of agricul- As NorthAmerican agricultural tural real estate. In contrast to Latin growth gained momentum after World America, where agricultural lands are War H. U.S. and Canadian exports of concentrated in the hands of large had- grain climbed from 23 million tons in enda owners, or Eastern Europe, where 1950 to 138 million tons in 1982, though state farms and collectives dominate, they dropped back t o 122 million tons in U.S. and Canadian agriculture are cen- 1983 as a strong dollar and lethargic tered on the family farm. Although large world economy weakened the buying by international standards, they are powers of other countries. Feedgrains nonetheless family far.ns and have all principally corn, sorgleim, and barley the attendant advantages of a strong link hae made up an ever Erger share of the between effort expended by those work- total. Today, North America is not only ing the land and the rewards of doing so. the world's breadbasket, but its feed bag as well- While the United States was expand- North America is not only the ing its fecdgrain exports, the shipments of soybeans grew evenynore rapidly. Al- world's breadbasket, but its feed though soybeans originated an China bag as well. they have thrived in the United States, doing far better than in their country of origin. They have also found an eco- The restructuring of world grain trade nomic niche in the world livestock econ- over the last generation has resulted in omy, with soybean meal becoming the part from the soil erosion problems dis- principal protein supplement in live- cussed earlier and in part from differen- stock and poultryfeed. Today the tial population growth rates. as a com- United States produceb over 60 percent parison of North America and Latin of the world's soybean crop and ac- America shows. During the late thirties, counts for two-thirds of soybean ex- Latin America had a larger grain export

Table 104. The Changing Pattern of World Grain Trade, 1950-831

Region 1950' 1960 1970 1980 19833 (million metric Inns) Minh America +23 + 39 + 56 + 131 + 122 Latin America + 1 0 + 4 10 3 Western Europe 22 25 30 16 + 2 E. Europe and Soviet Union 0 0 0 46 39 Africa 0 2 5 15 20 Asia 6 17 37 63 71 Australia and New Zeal. + 3 + 6 + 12 + 19 + 9 'Plus sign indicates net exports; minus sign. net imports.'Average for 1948 -52.9Prcliminary. sciences: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Proiforiron Yearbook (Rome: various Years); U.S. Department of Agriculture. Forerga Agneultare Crretdar, August 198S; author's estimates.

199 (184 State of the World-1984 Table 10.5. Soybean Exports, Major oping, import more food than they pro- Exporting Countries, 1960-831 duce; among these are Algeria, Belgium, Costa Rica, apan, Lebanon, Libya, Por- United tugal, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, and Year Slates Brazil Argentina Venezuela. Others that may shortly (million metric tons) move into this category include Egypt, 1960 4,6 Senegal. and South Korea.' This overwhelming dependence on 1965 8.1 0.2 one region, and on one country in par- 1970 16.4 1.1 ticular, brings with it an assortment of 1971 17.0 1.6 risks. To begin with, both the United 1972 15.7 3.1 States and Canada areaffectedby the 1973 18.5 3.6 same climatic cycles. A poor harvest in 1974 21.1 6.0 one is often associated with a poor harvest in the other. When reserves are low, 1975 16.4 8.0 0.2 even a modest fluctuation in the region's 1976 21.0 8.6 0.4 exportable grain surplus can send price 1977 20.5 9.4 1.0 tremors through the world food econ- 1978 26.1 7.6 2.3 omy. 1979 27.7 7.1 3.2 An inadvertentagriculturalpolicy miscalculation can also be costly. This 1980 32.8 8.4 2.9 was amply demonstrated in1983when 1981 27.5 19.0 3.2 miscalculations in the U.S. Department 1982 33.2 11.3 3.0 of Agriculture led to the idling of more 1983 32.5 11.5 2.8 cropland than had been projected, 'Beans pIus bean equivalent of meal. sovacc U.S. Department of Agriculture. Foreign which was followed by a severe drought Agriculture Circulars. June 1981, August 1982. and that further reduced harvests. Within a August 1983. matter of weeks, concerned countries watched the world grain surplus change surplus than North America, but the re- to a potential grain deficit. The U.S. corn gion's more rapid rate of population crop was cut in half,effectivelyeliminat- growth soon changed this. Indeed, if the ing the world feedgrain surplus. A simi- regions had grown at the satne rate since lar miscalculation in1972,when record 1950, North America's population in acreage of U.S. cropland was idled, con- 1983 would be so large that it would tributed to the food shortages of the consume the entire grain harvest, leav- 1972-74period.'® ing little or none for export. And North When food supplies are tight a North America, too, would now be struggling American grain export embargo, to maintain food self-sufficiency. whether economically or politically in- Today the countries with significant spired, can drive food prices upward exportable surpluses of grain can be everywhere outside the region. In1973, counted on the fingers clone hand-the for example, President Nixon embar- United States, Canada, Australia. Argen- goed soybean exports because of short- tina, and France. Of these, the United ages at home. Although this helped curb States accounts for over half and with food price rises within the United States, Canada covers close to70percent of the it worsened inflationary pressures else- to`al. The rest of the world's depen- where. During the same period, Ameri- dence on these supplies varies widely. A can millers and bakers were pressing for few countries, both industrial and devel- restrictions on grain exports, holding

200 Securing Food Supplies ( 185 ) out the prospect of soaring bread prices can food should take heed of the philo- if wheat exports were not restricted. Un- so hical debate emerging within the fortunately, the world market conditions United States about the wisdom of min- that would lead a principal exporter to ing the nation's soils to meet the ever- restrict outgoing supplies are precisely growing world demand, Both agricul- the conditions that are most damaging turalanalysts and environmentalists to importing countries. argue that the country should make whatever adjustments in its agricuitural practices are needed to protect the re- _ Some contend that the current gen- source base. even though this would re- ducetheexportablesurplus. Some eration of farmers has no right to argue that it makes little sense to sac- engage in the agronomic equiva- rifice a resource that has been a source of lent of deficit financing. economic strength since colonial days - - merely to buy a few billion barrels of oil. And some contend that the current gen- In raid July of 1975. the Canadian eration of farmers has no right to engage Wheat Board banned further exports of in the agronomic equivalent of deficit wheat until the size of the harvest could financing. mortgaging the future of gen- be ascertained. Similarly, the United erations to come. The current trend is States, yielding to political pressures fraught with risks, both for those whose generated byrisingdomestic food livelihoods depend on sustained land prices, limited grain exports to the So- productivity and for those in countries viet Union and Poland in the late sum- dependent on food imports that eventu- mer and early fall of 1975. Levied in ally will dry up if the mining of soil con- 1972, in 1974. and again in 1975, such tinues. Even for the importers, reduced supplies in the short term and less pres- restrictions on exports became common sure on North American soils would be when global grain supplies were tight. better than losing the region's export ca- Perhaps more unsettling, these export pacity over the long term. controls were adopted desnite the return to production of the previously idled U.S. cropland. As with oil, exports of grain have been restrictedforpoliticalpurposes.In 1973. the Department of State compiled FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS a "hit list" of 1 hird World countries One of the most useful indicators of the whose U.N. voting records were not world food situation is the food security compatible with U.S. interests so that index, which incorporates both grain they could be denied food assistance. carry-over stocks and the grain equiva- More recently. President Carter im- lent of idled cropland. This combines posed a partial embargo on exports of the world's two basic reserves of food grain to the Soviet Union following its and expresses them as days of consump- invasion of Afghanistan, and President tion, a concept readily understood by Reagan delayed negt:tiattng a new five- policymakers everywhere. The two com- year grain agreement with the Soviet ponents of the index differ in important Union after the imposition of martial law ways. Carry-over stocks, the grain in in Poland.t9. storage when the new crop begins to Countries that rely on North Ameri- come in, are readily accessible and re-

201 (186) State of the World-1984 quire only time for shipping arrange. down to scarcely 5 million tons during ments to be made and for transport. 1973-75, a time of poor harvests. (See Idled cropland, on the other hand, can Table 10-6.) After this harrowing experi- take a year or more to be converted into ence India adopted a target stock level of food by fanners. 21-24 million tons as part of a beefed-up Carry-over stocks are held for the food security system. Bumper harvests most part by exporting countriesthe in the late seventies helped the govern- United States, Canada, Australia, Argen- ment achieve its target, but after stocks tina, and Francelargely as a service to were drawn down to 12-15 million tons importers. Other countries, particularly during the 1979-80 drought, New Delhi large ones such as India, maintain grain has apparently decided for reasons of stocks as well, but these are usually de- cost to maintain a more modest level of signed specifically for their own use. grain reserves. India's grain stocks, typically ranging Maintaining adequate grain stocks is from 11-15 "million tons, were drawn expensive not only because of the cost of grain elevators but also because stored Table 10.6. India: Grain Stocks, 1963-83 grain represents an investment. So when interest rates are high, the cost of carry- Beginning ing grain is also high. And even with the Year' Stocks best of storage facilities there is always (million metric tons) some loss involved, thus adding to the 1963 11.7 cost of maintaining the reserves. 1964 12.2 Over time, for a reserve of grain to be 1965 13.0 adequate it should expand in tandem 1966 14.3 with world consumption. In 1960, for 1967 12.9 example, world reserves of 200 million 1968 14.7 tons were more than ample, represent- 1969 15.5 ing nearly one-fourth of world consumption. In 1983, however, the same stocks 1970 10.5 would represent only one-eighth of 1971 12.5 world grain consumption. A level of 1972 13.9 grain reserves that was adequate in 1960 1973 10.4 would be grossly inadequate in 1983. 1974 9.2 The idled cropland component of the 1975 5.3 food security index consists of cropland 1976 17.3 set aside under farm programs just in the 1977 21.2 United States. Only occasionally have 1978 21.7 other countries intentionally idled crop- 1979 21.3 land and the acreages have usually been negligible. During the sixties and early 1980 15.2 seventies U.S. idled cropland averaged 1981 12.2 close to 50 million acres, enough to pro- 1982 12.7 duce an estimated 60 million tons of 1983* 12.4 grain. (See Table 10-7.) As growth in 'Beginning AprilI of year shown.sPrelirni world food output slowed after 1973, the nary. United States returned cropland to pro- SOURCES: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Foreign tigneultare Ortolan. May t976. July 1982. duction from 1974 through 1977 in an and June 1983: David Salmon and Tom Slayton, attempt to rebuild stocks. Then when USDA, private communications, August 1983. grain reserves began to recover in the

202 Securing Food Supplies (187) Table 10.7. index of World Food Security, 1960 -83

Reserves World Grain CarryOver Equiv. of Stocks of Idled U.S. World Year Grain Cropland Total Consumption (million metric tons) (days) 1960 200 36 236 104

1965 142 70 212 81

1970 164 71 235 75 1971 183 46 229 71 1972 143 78 221 67 1973 148 25 173 50 1974 133 4 137 41

1975 141 3 144 43 1976 196 3 199 56 1977 194 i 195 53 1978 221 22 243 62 1979 197 16 213 54

1980 183 0 183 46 1981 221 0 221 56 19821 260 13 273 66 19832 191 92 283 68 'Preliminary.=Projection. souacts: Reserve stocks from U.S. Department of Agnculture (USDA). Forngn Agnadture Constar. October 1983: cropland idled in the United States data from Randy Weber. USDA. private communi- eatim. August 1983. late seventies, some land was taken out farmers to divert land to nonproductive of production in both 1978 and 1979. uses. The result was the largest diver- With reserves beginning to drop again in sion of acreage in U.S. historyover 70 1979, all land was released for produc- million acres. Combined with a severe tion in 1980. drought in the principal U.S. feedgrain The Reagan administration, wishing and soybean producing areas, this led to to reduce government intervention in a precipitous decline in the feedgrain the marketplace, declined to idle any harvest of over 40 percent. This in turn cropland in 1981 and only a modes reducedtheprospectivecarry-over acreage in 1982, even though world re- stocks to one of the lowest levels in some serves had been rebuilt following two yeats.20 consecutive bumper harvests inthe Whenever gran stocks and the grain United States and a worldwide economic equivalent of idled U.S. cropland drop recession that dampened the growth in below 50 days of world consumption, demand. In 1983, faced with the most grain prices customarily rise and become severe rural depression since the thir- highly unstable. In 1973 and 1974, when ties, the administration overreacted by the index dropped to 50 and 41 days, devising two programs to encourage grain prices were nearly double tradi-

203 (188) State of the World-1984 tional levels. The index again fell below markable respite from famine for a quar- 50 days of consumption in 1980, partly ter of a century. Whenever famine did as a result of drought in the United threaten, the Uttited States intervened States. This time, however, prices were with food aid, even when it required not nearly as volatile as before, perhaps nearly one-fifth of the U.S. wheat crop in part because interest rates were at re- two years in a row. as it did following cord highs, making investors less in- monsoon failures in India in 1964 and clined to speculate in commodities. By 1965.21 late 1983, prices, particularly of feed- By the early seventies, however. food grains, began to rise, largely because of deficits were widening and famine was the unprecedented reduction in the l'.S. unfolding in several African countries grain harvestthe product of govern- and in the Indian subcontinent. (See ment miscalculation and drought. Table 10-8.) Several famines claimed The food security index measures the hundreds of thousands of lives, provid- adequacy of food supplies at the global ing a grim reminder of the fragility of level and thus -the broad potential for food security even in an age of advanced responding to national shortages, but it says nothing about-conditions within In- technology. Most were the product of drought and a failure of international dividual countries. Here the best indica- tor, of course, is the nutritional state of food relief mechanisms. During the late seventies world re- a country'spopulation. Atissueis whether a growing child gets enough serves were rebuilt and, except for strife- food to develop his or her full physical tc.rn Kampuchea, famines subsided and mental potential or whether a only to return in 1983. a year of wide- worker gets enough food to be fully pro- spread climatic anomalies. The capacity ductive. Per capita food availability for a of poor countries with falling per capita country indicates what the national aver food production and deteriorating soils age is, but not whether an individual is to withstand drought and floods has adeqttately nourished. Assessing nutri- lessened. As a r _suit, more countries tional adequacy requires some knowl- than ever before face the possibility of edge of how the national food supply is famine in early 1984. Among the threat- distributed. But a lack of data on distri- ened countries are Bolivia and Peru in bution makes it very difficult to estimate the extent of malnutrition, thus leaving Table 10.8. Countries Experiencing Famine Since 1950 the subject open to continuing debate. The only time a decline in nutritiott Estimated shows up officially is when it is severe Year Location Deaths enough to affect mortality. When this happens a country is facing famine, the 1960-61 China 8,980400 ntost obvious and severe manifestation 1968-69 Nigeria (Biafra) 1,000.000 of food insecurity. Using this criterion, 1971-72 Bangladesh 450.000 inadequate though itis, developments 1972 India 830,000 over the past decade have nt.,1 been en- 1973 Sahelian Countries 100.000 couraging. From the postwar recovery 1972-74 Ethiopia 200.000 years until the early seventies, famine 1974 Bangladesh 330.000 virtually disappeared from the world. 1979 Kampuchea 450.000 Except in China, which now admits to a 1985 Ethiopia 50,000 massive famine in 1960-61. when it was some; Worldwatch Institute estimates derived largely isolated, the world enjoyed a re- from various official and t.r 3fficial sources.

204 .3n-wing Food Supplies (189)

Latin America. and over a !mire 01 «run- economic. demographic. and political tries its Africa. An FAO team of agrono- variables. Some analysts see the food mists assessing the food situation in problem almost exclusively as a popula- Africa in late 198:3 identified 22 coun- tion isst ..., noting that wherever popula- tries where crisis seemed imminent tion growth rates are low, food supplies Angola. Benin. Botswana, Cape Verde, are generally adequate. Others view it as Central African Republic, C'nid, Ethi- a problem of resourcessoil, water, and opia, Gambia. Ghana, Guinea. Lesotho, energy. Many economists see it almost Mali.Mauritania,Mozamhique. Sao exclusively as a result of underinvest- Tonic and Principe, Senegal. Somalia. ment, while agronomists see it more as a Swaziland. Tanzania. Togo. Zamhia, and failure to bring forth new technologies Zimbabwe. The team of experts con- on the needed scale. Still others see it as cluded that four million tons of emer- a distrihution problem. To some degree gency grain supplies would be needed to it is all of these. avoid starvation among the 145 million people living in these countries.22 Since all governments gather mortal- More countries than ever before ity data. though not equally well, it is face the possibility of famine in possible to document these severe food early 1984. shortages. But equally troubling is the numberofpeoplestifki argfrom chronic malnutritionthat vast middle ground between those who arc well In an important sense. the food prob km of the mid-eighties is the result of nourished and those who are starving. resource depletion. The depletion of oil Their numbers are difficult to measure and therefore easy to ignore. Indian reserves. the loss of topsoil through ero sion, and the growing competition for economist Amartya Sen observes that fresh water are central to understanding his government has been able to ignore trends in the world food economy. As this endemic hunger because that hun- world population expands, the shrinking ger has neither led to a run on the mar- cropland area per person and the reduc- ket. and chaos, nor grown into an acute tion in average soil depth by erosion famine with people dying of starvation. combine to steadily reduce the per Persistent. orderly hunger does not capita availability of topsoil for food pro- upset the system." 23 duction. If between 1980 and 2000 there is a 6 percent net increase in cultivated land area and a continuation of recent soil erosion rates, the amount of topsoil per person will fall from 792 tons to 489 ACRISIS OF MANY tons by the end of the century. a decline DIMENSIONS of 38 percent. (See Table 10-9.) Because the energy that farmers substitute for There is no simple explanation of wh, soil lost to erosion is becoming increas Mints to eradicate hunger have lost mo- ingl%costly. production costs every- mentum or why food supplies for some where are on the rise. segments of humanity are less secure In a basic arithmetical sense the food than they were. say. 15 years ago. De- problem is a population problem. If clines in food security involve the con- world population were now growing at 1 tinuous interaction of environmental, percent instead of nearly 2 percent there

205 (19o) State of the World-1984 Table 10.9. World Soil Resources and Excessive Soil Lou, 1980, With Projections to 2000' Excessive Remaining Topsoil Year Population Cropland Soil Loss Topsoil Per Person (billion) (billion acres) (billion tons) (tons) 1980 4.42 3.12 22.6 3,500 792 1985 3.17 23.1 3,385 701 1990 5.28 3.22 23.5 3,270 619 1995 5.73 3-27 23.9 3,150 850 2000 6.20 3.32 24.2 3.030 489 lAssumes a net growth in world cropland area of 6 percent between 1980 and 2000. and an avenge depth of topsoil of 7 inches (or 1.120 tons per acre) in 1980. SOURCE: Woridwatch institute estimates. would still be an ample margin for im- depend on an emergency program to proving diets, as there was from 1950 to slow world population growth. Cur- 1973. As noted, however, the annual rently farmers must produce enough ad- growth in food production has unfortu- ditional food each year to feed an annual nately fallen from the rather comfortable increment of 79 million peoplepeople 3 percent of that period to a rate that who must be provided for in years of barely matches that of population. good weather or bad. Those who see the food problem pri- Meaningful improvements in diet over marily as a distribution problem argue the rest of the century will depend, too, that if all the world's food were equitably on gains in per capita income, particu- distributed among itspeople there larly in the Third World. Unfortunately would be no hunger and malnutrition. those gains are narrowing or disappear- This argument is technically sound but it ing. During the seventies, 18 countries represents a degree ofglobal abstraction in Africa experienced a decline in per that is not very helpful in formulating capita income. In most instances these policies. It would mean, for example, national declines appear to be continu- that much of the world would be even ing in this decade. Unfortunately, the list more dependent on U.S. farmers than of countries where incomes have fallen they are today, failing to realize that the thus far during the eighties is far longer only long-term solution to hunger in than it was in the seventies. most Third World countries is more internal production. And improving distribution is not just a matter of a better Farmers must produce enough ad- transport system or subsidized food dis- ditional food each year to feed an tribution programs. It requires dealing annual increment of 79 million with fundamental sources of political conflict such as land reform and with people. economic policies that encourage employment. Achieving a more satisfactory balance Also on the demand side is the ques- between the world demand and supply tion of how available food supplies are of food requires ammtion to both sides distributed. The most vulnerable seg- of the equation. On the demand side, the ments of society in times of food scarcity success of efforts to upgrade diets may are the rural landless in Third World

206 Securing Food Supphes (191) -- countries. Data collected on famine Table 10-10. United States: Concessional deaths in Bangladesh in 1975, for exam- Grain Exports Under Public Law 480, pie, show death rates among the landless 195542 of 36 per thousand, three times that of Year Qpantity their neighbors who owned three or more acres of land.$ Reducing the size (million tons) of this extremely vulnerable, rapidly 1955 5.4 growing landless popul: 'ion will require far more vigorous (mg) planning and 1960 12.5 land reform programs than most coun- 1965 15.0 tries have so far been able to mount. On the supply side, the scarcity of new 1970 7.8 cropland, the continuing loss of topsoil, 1971 7.3 the scarcity of fresh water, the end of 1972 7.8 cheap energy, and diminishing returns 1973 5.5 on chemical fertilizer combine to make 1974 2.7 expanding food production progres- 1975 3.7 sively more difficult. In addition, food- 1976 4.0 deficit Third World countries are now 1977 7.2 struggling with a heavy external debt 1978 5.9 load that is continuing to mount. For- 1979 5.9 eign exchange scarcities are reducing imports both of agricultural. inputs-and 1980 4.5 of food. In 1983, for example, Brazil, 1981 4.1 staggering under the world's heaviest 1982 3.8 debt load, reduced its imports of fertili- SOURCE: Detrain Rabe. U.S. Department of Agri. zer and other key farm inputs. Scores of culture, private communication. August 1983. other countries are similarly affected.25 At a time when concessional food aid facility in 1981 that would provide short- is needed lore than ever, U.S. programs term supplementary financing to food- are at the lowest level of nearly a genera- deficit Third World countries suffering tion. From their launch in 1954 through from temporary rises in food import the late sixties, U.S. food programs ex- bills.ts panded, reaching a high of 15.3 million In addition to the traditional prob- tons of grain in 1966, Enough to feed 90 lems, political conflicts are creating an million people in its peak years, this aid instability in the Middle East, Africa, and was an important defense against hun- Latin America that makes agricultural ger in many countries. (See Table 10- progress difficult. This new hindrance to 10.) Preliminary estimates for 1983, progress is reflected in the World Food however, indicate food aid shipments Programme's emergency relief efforts. had dwindled to some 4 million tons of The share of emergency food relief grain. Other assistance programs, such going to victims of human-caused disas- as the World Food Programme, have ters (refugees and displaced persons) been developed and expanded, but they has come to dominate the Programme in are small by comparison and cannot recent years, after starting at a relatively begin to offset the U.S. decline. In a modest level. By 1982, less than one- modest effort to enhance food security third of the Programme's resources were in low-income countries, the Interna- devoted to helping the groups who were tional Monetary Fund launched a new the principal recipients in the early

207 092) Slate of the World-1984 years, those affected by drought or Kilograms caught in sudden natural disasters, such 300 as floods or earthquakes. (See Table 10- 1 1.) Other disruptions borne of despera- 200 - tion are cropping up in food-deficit areas. In late 1983, reports from northeastern Brazil described hordes of hun- 100- gry rural people pouring into the towns Source: U.S. Dept. demanding food, water, and jobs. After of Aviaikure the town of Crato was invaded on three 1950 1960 different occasions, merchants began 1970 19180 1985 10.4. Grass Production Per Perms in voluntarily distributing rations of beans, Africa, 195043 sugar, and flour to forestall sacking and looting. Merchants in another town re- so many African countries: record popu- portedly lost some 60 tons of food to lation growth, underinvestment in api- looters." culture, and physical deterioration in the Although droughtandrecession- countryside. Ecologists have for years induced unemployment are leading to warned that mounting population pres- hunger, the long-term forces converging sures in northeastern Brazil leadins to to create these conditions in the Brazil- deforestation and unsustainable agricul- ian northeast are essentially the same as tural practices would turn the area into those that have led to the food crises in a desert. That grim scenario is now unfolding. Table 10.11. Allocation of World Food Trends in Africa since 1970 are a har- Programme Emergency Relief, 1963-82 binger of things to come elsewhere in Sudden Human- the absence of some major changes in Natural Caused population policies and economic priori- Year Drought Disaster' Disaster' ties. After rising from 1950 to 1970, per capita grain production in Africa has de- (percent) clined rather steadily.2s (See Figure 10- 1963-72 44 33 23 4.) The forces that have led to this dedine in Africa are also gaining strength 1973 83 17 0 in the Andean countries of Latin Amer- 54 36 10 1974 ica, in Central America, and in the In- 1975 21 44 35 dian subcontinent. Whether the declin- 1976 30 18 52 ing food production now so painfully 1977 50 31 19 evident in Africa can be avoided else- 1978 25 41 34 where will be determined in the next few 1979 33 10 57 years. 1980 33 5 62 The issue is not whether the world can 1981 22 4 74 produce more food. Indeed, it would be 1982 20 11 69 difficult to put any foreseeable limits on 'Includes earthquakes. floods. etc. the amount the world's farmers can pro- 'Includes refugees. displaced persons. and oth- duce. The question is at what price they ers affected by cwil disturbances. some= World Food Programme.Annual Report of will be able to produce It and how this the Executive Armor on the Development of the Pro- relates to the purchasing power of the gramme 1982(Rome: 1983). poorer segments of humanaty. The envi-

208 Securing Food Supplies (193) ronmental, demographic, and economic of social and economic prioritiesgiv- trends of the seventies and early eighties ing agriculture and family planning the indicate that widespread improvements emphasis they deservewill get the in human nutrition will require major world back on an economic and demo- course corrections. Nothing less than a graphic path that will reduce hunger wholesale reexamination and reordering rather than increase it,

209 11

Reshaping Economic Policies Lester IL Brown

One need not be an economist to sensc derive from more-fundamental short- that we are living in difficult economic comingsoutdated population policies. times. Economic growth over the last inappropriate economic policies, and four years has been less than in any com- misplaced priorities.In all-too-many parable period since the thirties and countries, population policies belong to there have been no gains in per capita another age, a time when rapid popula- income for the world as a whole since tion growth slowed but did not prevent 1979. In countries such as Argentina, improvements in living conditions. Eco- Brazil, Mexico, and Poland. massive ex- nomic policies. too, are a carry-over ternal debt is strangling economic prog- from a past when energy was cheap and ress. resources were abundant. Existing pri- A projection of Brazil's economic fu- orities in the use of public resources ture by Data Resources indicates that the were fashioned in an age when incomes country should be able to pay off its were everywhere on the rise, when more debt, but that doing so means its de- guns did not preclude more butter. pressed industrial output will not regain The preceding chapters make clear its 1980 level until 1990. By this time $7 the extent of resource deterioration, a million Brazilians u ill have been added deterioration that now undermines eco- to the 1980 population of 119 million, nomic performance in many countries. greatly reducing output per capita.! Un- Policymakers often lose sight of the rela- fortunately, this projected interaction tionship between the economic system, between external debt, economic out- whose performance is monitored in put, and population growth is not atypi- great detail, and the resource base on cal. It confronts dozens of developing which it depends. Glowing economic re- countries, large and small. portswith key indicators such as out- The budgetary deficits and external put, productivity, and exports continu- debts that confound policymakers today ally setting new records in the short run Reshaping Economic Policies (195) are possible even as the economic mined. Lacking data on soil erosion, policies that generate them are destroy- governments cannot compute either the ing the resource base. Indeed, one rea- on-farm cost of soil loss or the off -farm son for the bullish indicators might be costs of, for example, hydroelectric res- the consumption of the resource base ervoir sedimentation. This in turn pre- itself, as the discussion of "Living Be- cludes complete cost/benefit analyses of yond Our Means" in Chapter 1indi- soil conservation programs. cates. The need for a oew accounting system i I; now evident. Existing economic in- Glowing economic reports are pos- dicators need to be supplemented by sible even as the economic policies others that distinguish between self- defeating and sustainable growth. Most that generate them are destroying fundamentally. the world needs a system the resource base. of economic accounting that reflects more completely the effects of economic policies on the resource base and, con- Resource accounting could help man- versely, the effect of changes in the re. age other resources intelligently as well, source base on the economy. This sys- Water demands often exceed renewable tem must account for more than the supplies, leading to falling water tables, short-run "bottom line"; it must incor- dwindling river flows, and shrinking porate values that maintain economic lakes. Grasslands are being convened to life. desert in many areas of the world, but there is no effort to relate desertification to excessive livestock numbers and the loss of grazing capacity through overgrazing. And little accurate annual data AREVISED ACCOUNTING on changes in forested areas exist, so in many situations trees are being felled SYSTEM faster than they are regenerating. Many The lack of a more complete economic countries simply do not know when they accounting system has led many govern- begin consuming the resource base it- ments to adopt ill-conceived policies in self. By the time it becomes physically the management and use of resources. It obvious that they ars aping so, it can be has permitted governments to focus on too late to act. production, while largely ignoring the Changes in a few resource stocks are effects on the natural capital that makes carefully monitored at the global level. production possible. In some instances For example, governments annually re- the accounting gap has led to a more or cord the amount of oil produced and less permanent loss of productive capac- newly discovered, making it easy to de- ity. As this report documents, govern- termine changes in reserves. This infor- ments' shortsighted approach can be mation helps policy makers decide how seen in one case after another: topsoil, rapidly the remaining oil reserves should water supplies, grasslands, forests. be exploited. When aggregated at the Few annual accountings of soil forma- global level, the sum of these national tion and soil loss have been attempted, data provides information of great value so national political leaders often do not to decision-makers everywhere, from in- know whether soils are being farmed or dividual consumers to political leaders. 211 (t96) State of the World-1984 At the national level, only Norway ap- In the Third World the primary need pears to have adopted a comprehensive is to identify and measure the resource. resource accounting system. In 1974 the degrading consequences of economic Norwegian Stortinget (Parliament) in- activity. Governments in these coun- structed the Ministry of Envii onment to tries, where "natural capital" is so over- prepare an annual review of natural re- whelmingly important, need to know source stocks, their annual consump- what is happening to soils, forests, grass- tion, and any proposals for their future lands, and water resources. If a desert is use. Work on the methodology for this expanding. for example, policymakers in assessment began in 1975 and a prelimi- the area want to know how fast it is nary study was presented to the Stortin- spreading and what can be done to re. get in 1977. It included an accounting verse the process. both of material resources and of basic Occasionally a country will institute a biological life - support systems. Other detailed accounting system when a re- countries, including Canada, France, source is of particular value or when its Japan, and the Netherlands, have experi- stock is known to be diminishing. which mented with alternative accounting sys- would have potentially serious long- tems but none has progressed as far as term economic consequences. It was Norway in developing a comprehensive precisely these concerns t'slt led the accounting.2 U.S. Congress to pass the Resource Norway's goal in resource accounting Conservation Act in 1977, which re- is to maximize the "social profit" of required the Department of Agriculture to sources and to prevent depletion or deg- conduct a national soils inventory, focus- radation wherever possible. In a United ing particularly on the relationship be- Nations Environment Programme re- tween soil erosion and new soil forma- view of the status of environmental action. The first assessment, in 1977, drew counting, Edward Weiner observes that upon some 200,000 samples from crop- "the concept of 'natural capital' is at the lands across the country and provided heart of the Norwegian resource ac- the most detailed information ever on counting system."3 Its early achitects de- U.S. soils. The survey was repeated cided. probably wisely, not to attempt to again in 1982, but with even greater de- integrate it with 1:te national economic tail. Relying on close to a million individ- accounts, In part this was because the ual samples, it represented the most ex- latter are kept in monetary units, whereas haustiveinventoryofsoilsever resources are measured in physical units. undertaken by any country. The comple- The Norwegian experience illustrates tion of the 1982 assessment provided the value of a modest but realistic ap- U.S, soil scientists with two data points proach to accounting. It also demon- that can be compared to establish long- strat es that each country needs to design term trends .3 its own system. one that is suited to its A resource accounting system pro- particularcircumstances and needs. vides a means of incorporating the costs Japan, for example, a heavily industrial- of "externalities" such as acid rain or ized and densely populated country, has soil erosion into decision - making. The focused on the costs of mitigating envi- goal is more intelligent policymaking ronmental damage, M particular the and a more enlightened public and pri- effects of air and water pollution on vate management of resources. Much human health. South Korea, in a some- more than a resource accounting system what similar situation, has patterned its is needed, of course. for intelligent envi- approach after that of Japan! ronmental and resource management, 212 ReshapingEconomic Policies ('97) but this is a necessary yardstick for mea- various factors of production also call suring a system's effectiveness. for new economic indicators. From the beginning of this century until 1973, en- ergybecameprogressivelycheaper while labor became more expensive. That trend has since been reversed, wit:. NEW ECONOMIC INDICATORS energy costs rising much more rapidly than those of labor. With extensive and As the emphasis in economic policymak- growing unemployment in industrial as ing and planning shifts toward sustaina- well as developing countries, these new bility, the inadequacy of many widely relationships suggest a need to focus used economic indicators becomes obvi- more on energy productivity, specifically ous. As the goal of economic policy is on that of oil, the scarcest fossil fuel. The redefined, new indicators are needed to barrels of oil needed to produce $1,000 measure progress. Central to this new worth of GNP, a measure discussed in definition is Kenneth Boulding's obser- Chapter 3, is a useful way of determining vation that "it is stocks of goods that how well a society is doing in weaning contribute to human well-being while itself from this versatile but dwindling flows contribute to gross national prod- energy source. Similarly, since cropland uct."6 Under the existing national ac- area is essentially fixed, the value of land counting system. the production of is increasing relative to that of labor, shoddy goods that have to be replaced making land productivity relatively more .._ __or repaired frequently _raises the GNP. irnportant,This is to imply that labor whereas a modest additional investment productivity is unimportant; rather it in high-quality engineering that greatly recognizes that raising the productivity ex:ends the lifetime of products lowers of energy and of land increasingly holds the GNP. the key to raising labor productivity. A set of economic indicators designed In a world where the rate of popula- to measure progress toward a sustain- tion growth is often the principal deter- able society should include data, for ex- minant of efforts to improve living con- ample, on the recycling of major re- ditions.data on,population growth sources such as steel, aluminum, glass, become an important measure of prog- and paper. The throwawaysociety ress:. The need here is not for a new indi- evolved when energy was cheap, raw cator but for the more systematic gather- materials were abundant, and there were ing and dissemination of data on birth far fewer people competing for re- rates. Reporting this data monthly, just sources than there are today. Societies as governments already do for employ- failing to realize that these days are over ment and inflation, would remind peo- are likely to pay with a falling standard of ple how much remains to be done in living. The release of monthly data on order to achieve population stability. materials recycling would help highlight As pressures on the global resource the importance of this process for both base intensify, spurring the shift to de- the general public and key decision-mak- velopment strategies focused on basic ers. Such indicators are not particularly needs, indicators other than income may difficult to develop; recycled scrap steel, prove more useful in measuring living for instance, is processed through mills standards. Given the basic need for just as iron ore is and thus can readily be food. particularly in low-income coun- measured. tries, per capita grain consumption or Changes in the relative values of the caloric intake may be more telling men- 213 (198) State of the World-1984 sures of well-being. Indeed, Bangladesh use and a decline in gross national prod- has begun to define poverty not in terms uct, but also to an improvement in the of per capita income but in terms of ca- standard of living. loric intake. In 1980 the government re- Similarly, as planned obsolescence is ported that 85 percent of the people abandoned in favor of high-quality were living below the povertyline. goods emphasizing durability, this too defined as 2,122 calories a day. and 54 could lead to a decline in apparent eco- percent below the extreme poverty level nomic output. Stated otherwise, many of of 1,885 calories.? the practices that have led to such enormous increases in gross national product do not necessarily cot Mate with im- A new set of economic indicators provements in quality of life. In moving keyed directly to basic social needs toward a sustainable society it is quite possible to have a short-term decline in could help guide the effort to create GNP while living conditions are improv- a sustainable society. ing. A new set of economic indicators keyed directly to basic social needs could help guide the effort to create a sustain- In a world where resource scarcities able society. make rapid economic growth more difficult or less desirable. designing development strategies that focus more sped& cally on basic social indicators such as life expectancy or infant mortality may ECONOMICPOLICIES FOR be useful. The Overseas Development FULL EMPLOYMENT Council has devised a Physical Quality of Life Index WQLD based on three social Economic analysts now put rising unem- indicatorslife expectancy, infant mor- ployment and international indebted- tality, and literacyas an alternative to ness at the top of the list of the world per capita income. The profiles devel- economic problems, both having at least oped with this new index suggest that temporarily superseded inflation as an rather high levels of social well-being issue of concern. Unemployment and can be attained at rather modest levels of underemployment have been growing resource consumption, providing an ap- steadily for more than a decade in the propriate development strategy is fol- Third World as more and more young lowed.8 people reach working age. In some de- Progress towards a sustainable society veloping countries the unemployed and requires changes that will reduce the underemployed combined may consti- value of GNP as an indicatorunder- tute a third or more of the total labor scoring the need for new economic in- force. dicators. For example, if the construc- Even Western industrial societies are tion industry begins to incorporate the plagued with rising unemployment. In basic principles of climate-sensitive ar- the United States, the United Kingdom, chitecture, new buildings will require far andseveralcountriesinWestern less energy than existing structures. In Europe, unemployment reached double- effect, architectural design and engi- digit levels in the early eighties. A neering know-how will be substituted for ratchet effect can now be seen in the energy, leading to much lower energy growth of unemployment in these sod- , 214 Reshaping Economic Nimes (199) rites. During recessions unemployment countryside" was achieved by combining increases, while during economic recov- fast-growing pine seedlings from gov- ery the number of unemployed stabilizes ernment-run nurseries, the organiza- or declines only modestly, leaving the tional capacity represented by village- totalnumberof job-seekerslittle levelcooperatives, andseasonally changed. Thus with each economic cycle unemployed labor. unemployment moves higher. In effect South Korea has created a Theoretically the factors of produc- major energy resource, one that will pro- tionland, labor, and capital, which in- vide fuelwood in perpetuity with a mini- cludes energyshould combine in the mal expenditure of funds. Reforestation marketplace in optimum combinations. in this setting amounts to ecologic If a given factor is not fully used, its price rehabilitation. By reducing runoff, for- should drop. But market rigidities such ested lands reduce soil erosion and help as minimum wages and fixed salaries for recharge underground aquifers. South many categories of workers have over- Korea's efforts, which have added to the priced labor relative to other productive country's resource stock and reduced its factors, leaving many people without unemployment, are a model for other jobs. The result is a waste of labor and countries. Maintaining, culling, and har- a less-than-optimum combination of the vesting the planted trees will provide basic factors of production. employment to thousands of villagers Neither national governments nor infor the indefinite future. ternational development agencies have Another activity particularly impor- proved very proficient in devising eco- tant in rural areas is the construction of nomic policies that will take full advan- small dams that can be used for electrical tage of a country's labor force. No gov- generation and for water storage and ir- ernment would consciously idle part of rigation. Small dams, which can be built its energy flow or cavital assets. Putting almost exclusively with hand tools, can money in a mattress would be unthink- also reduce runoff and potential damage able because it would not contribute to from flooding. China, which has some productive capacity or earn interest. And 89,000 small, locally constructed dams yet labor is used as unproductively as with a combined electrical generating money in a mattress as a result of poorly capacity of nearly $,000 megawatts, is conceived economic policies. Govern- the unquestioned leader in thisre- ments can avoid this by systematically sourceful use of labor.9 seeking opportunities to use unem- A closely related effort that can capi- ployed labor to increase a country's en- talize on rural seasonal employment is ergy output, to conserve energy, or to the construction of terraces on hillside increase food production. cropland. As noted in Chapter 4, where One of the more imaginative efforts of population growth is rapid, farmers have this kind is South Korea's reforestation moved up the hillsides so fast that time campaign, which is described in some has not permitted construction of the detail in Chapter 5. In the early seventies terraces needed to stabilize and preserve the government launched a national agriculture on theseslopinglands. effort to replant the denuded hillsides of Mobilizing seasonally unemployed the country, land thatas otherwise use- workers for this task could ensure both less. By the end of the decade, seasonally that soil on this land is retained and that unemployed villagers had planted an rainfall is captured and used to good area in forest that was two-thirds as large effect. as that in rice. This "greening of the In a world where water is becoming

215 (200) Slate of the World -1984 increasingly scarce and a constraint on they would have to import reactors. food production, reducing water loss Another energy source that can be ex- from canals can yield a robust return. ploited largely by indigenous labor is Even in advanced industrial societies biomass, which can be converted into such as the United States or the Soviet methane by using locally built methane Union, irrigation canals are often dug in generators. Every village in the Third the bare earth without the benefit of any World has a certain amount of organic lining. Using stone, brick, or even a layer materialhuman and animal wastes, of plastic can sometimes virtually elimi- household wastes, and crop residues nate seepage, which can siphon off up to that can be converted into methane by 40 percent of irrigation water supplies. an anaerobic digester. These methane In addition to reducing waterlogging. generators extract the methane from or- often a problem in irrigated areas with ganic material while leaving a nutrient- canal seepage, the investment of unem- rich sludge that can be used as fertilizer. ployed labor in this water conservation In effect, methane generators combine effort would also expand the irrigated the production of energy and the recy- area.' ° cling of nutrients, which is certain to become an appealing combination as fertilizer prices continue to rise.'s One of the most promising areas As electricity rates and oil and natural gas prices rise, a prime opportunity ex- foremploymentexpansionis ists to substitute solar collectors for materials recycling. these conventional sources. A concerted worldwide effort to shift to this method of water heating, a move that makes The broad-based effort to develop re- more and more economic sense, would newable energy substitutes provides an create millions of jobs in the fabrication, abundance of job opportunities. The marketing, distribution, and installation shift from gasoline to alcohol as an auto- of solar panels. motive fuel in Brazil illustrates this po- The manufacture and marketing of tential. The increase in cropped acreage more-efficient stoves for cooking in the needed to produce sugarcane for the Third World is another industry ripe for distilleries is a source of direct employ- development. Food cooked on an open ment in agriculture. At the same time the fire uses several times as much firewood, construction of alcohol distilleries in the cow dung, or crop residue as that cooked countryside near the cane fields provides on more-efficiently designed closed a form of industrial employment in the stoves. One advantage of several new countryside. Although petroleum refin- varieties of stoves is that they can be eries need only a handful of workers, al- made entirely from local materigs and cohol distilleries employ many." produced by village-levelindustries. A similar advantage exists in the de- The social contribution, of the reduced velopment of wind power, an energy re- pressures on forests and of additional source that is widely available compared employment would be substantial's with coal or uranium. Turning to the Within the United States, one of the wind rather than nuclear power in the most promising areas for employment Third World also creates manufacturing expansion is materials recycling, which jobs locally since virtually all developing has the advantage of reducing energy re- countries have the industrial capacity to quirements, consumer costs, pollution, produce wind-electric generators, while and materials use. The use of. irgin ores

216 - = Reshaping Etonomit Polities (201) for the production of throwaway con- countries provided national leaders un- tainers and other materials is capital- derstand what needs to be done and and energy-intensive but uses relatively have the political will to carry it out. In little labor. Recycling, by contrast, is a most situations the limiting factor is lahor-intensive activity that requires far imagination and the capacity to orgahize less capital and energy. people at the local level to achieve com- One sector in which all societies can mon social goals, whether the objective increase employment while reducing en- is planting and maintaining a village fire- ergy use is transportation. One of the wood plantation or building a small dam attractions of the 55-mile-an-hour speed to store water and generate electricity. limit in the United States, in addition to the energy and lives it saves, is that it increases employment in both freight and passenger transportation. Another variation on this basic theme of exchang- EQUITY AND STABILITY ing energy for employment lies in the design of public passenger transport sys- As long as the world economy was ex- tems. In some developing countries, panding at 4-5 percent per year the such as Indonesia. the Philippines, and question of how equitably wealth was Turkey. small vans that carry six to ten distributed was largely defused. It was passengers are driven on established assumed that the rising economic tide transportation routes, providing passen- would raise living standards everywhere, ger transport that is easily competitive and in most countries it did. But now with buses in terms of cost but that uses that economic growth has slowed it less energy and more drivers." becomes more difficult to dodge the dis- hi some cases a combination of the tribution issue. initiatives cited above multiplies job op- As economic growth lost momentum portunities. For example, the construc- during the early eighties it fell behind tion of a local water storage pond or res- population growth in many countries. ervoir in a rural community can permit For hundreds of millions of people in- double cropping. In many Third World come levels in 1983 were less than in countries an increase in water supplies 1980, For this segment of global society during the dry season will make year- the exhortations to be patient, that their round cropping possible. In the Philip- lot would improve, are becoming less ac- pines, for example, a new rice-produc- ceptable, As world population moved tion system has developed in areas with from 3 billion in 1960 to 4.6 billion in continuous water supplies. A farmer 1983 it outstripped the growth in many with, say, four acres of land divides it basic commodities on which humanity into small plots that are in rice continu- depends. When the per capita supply of ously except during the few days be- a commodity is stagnant or falling for tween harvest and replanting. Each week the world as a whole, if some people con- another plot is harvested and replanted. sume more, then others must consume With such intensive rotation, the work less. Patterns of income distribution load is distributed evenly throughout the within and among societies must be con- year. Labor is used with maximum effi- sidered against this shifting global eco- ciency and the land yields three or four nomic and resource backdrop. crops of rice annually.ls One common measure of the equity of Mounting unemployment is not inevi- income distribution within a society is table in either industrial or developing the ratio of the income received by the

217 (202) State of the World-1981 wealthiest one-fifth of popuiltion to that come distribution bracket. Within the of the poorest one-fifth. This provides a Third World, India, Bangladesh, and iri means for comparing income distribu- Lanka stand out, with income distrif-u- tion regardless of the level of develop- don ratios of 6 or 7. Other major indus- ment. In the more socially progressive trial countries with somewhat less equi- countries, such as those in Western tableincomedistributionpatterns Europe, the income ratio of the top one- include France (9 to 1), the united States fifth to the bottom one-fifth ranges from (10 to 1), and Canada (11 Ito 1). 4 to 1 to 6 to 1. (See Table 11.1.) Two At the other end of the spectrum are other major industrial societies, Japan countries in Latin America -Ind the Mid- and Australia, are also within this in- dle East. Brazil, which has by far the greatest concentration of wealth of any Table 11.1. Income major country, is at the bottom of the Distribution, Selected Countries' scale, with a ratio of 33 to 1. This explains why Brazil is sometimes described Relationship as "a Belgium and an India" within the of Income same boundaries. For the upper 10 per- of Top One.Fifth cent, or roughly 13 million people, in- Country to Bottom One-Fifth comes are comparable to those in north- (ratio) western Europe: for many remaining Brazilians, incomes and living condi- Finland 4/1 tions are much closer to those in India. Denmark 5/1 Mexico, the second largest country in Japan 5/1 Latin America, also has a highly skewed Netherlands 5/1 income distribution pattern. The weal- Sweden 5/1 thiest one-fifth of its population has an United Kingdon 5/1 income 20 times as great as the poorest Bangladesh 6/1 one-fifth. In Mexico. as in Brazil, this West Germany 6/1 puts the poorest segments of society at a Norway 6/1 meager subsistence level of existence. Sri Lanka 6/1 For governments wishing to adtieve a Yugoslavia 6/1 more equitable distribution of income India 7/1 there are numerous public policy instruments that can be used. One of the most Indonesia 7/1 common, of course, is a progressive in- Spain 7/1 come tax, a principle of taxation that has South Korea 8/1 been widely adopted throughout the Tanzania 8/i world. Education, or more precisely ac- France 9/1 cess to education, can also play an essen- United States 10/1 tial role. To be an effective equalizer, the Malaysia 16/1 educational system must be accessible to Turkey 16/1 all people regardless of their economic Venezuela 18 /I or social standing. Mexico 20/1 When policies to redistribute income Peru S2/1 do not adequately reduce inequalities, Brazil SS/1 governments can turn to the redistribu- 'Data are for latest year available tion of productive assets, relying on land sovitce: World Bank. World Development Report redistribution or employee stock option 1981 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989). plans. In largely agrarian societies, land

218 Reshaping Economic Palm (203) redistribution is often the key to redis- antomobile fleets in the Third World to tri hut ingwealth.Prominent among achieve the near-saturation levels of the those using this device are Japan. South United States or Western Europe. it is a Korea. and Taiwan. countries that im- mistake to invest beavily in an extensive plemented thorough land reform pro- automobile infrastructure that will be- grams as part of the reconstruction fol- nefit only a small fraction of a country's lowing World War II. Other countries. population. Social equity is better served such as the United States, have brought by investing these same resources in an aboutlandredistributionindirectly extensive public transportation system through ittitiatives ouch as the Home- augmented by bicycles, mopeds, and stead Act. Although land reform is often motor scooters. ,Motorized three-wheel the key to both wealth redistribution and rickshas of the sort pioneered in India successful rural development. it is also a could be used as taxis. politically formidable undertaking. Similarly. the selection of medical technologies influences the distribution of health care services. If a country in- vests in a large modern hospital in its It is a mistake to invest heavily in an capital city it will be able to serve a small extensive automobile infrastruc- elite rather well but will lack the re- ture that will hew& only a small sources to provide any medical services fraction of a country's population. at all to the bulk of the population. In the Philippines, for example, a $50-million heart-surgery center has been constructed at a time when many Filipinos The selection of technologies often lack access to even rudimentary health has an indirect impact on the distribu- care. The waste is even greater because tion of wealth. For example. when Pakis- those Filipinos who can afford open- tan was granted a large loan by the heart surgery prefer to fly to the United World Bank to purchase four-wheel trac- States for the operation rather than en- tors of the sort used in Europe and the trust themselves to local surgeons.17 In- United States, the larger farmers, who vesting $50 million in village clinks and were able to afford this equipment, ac- the training of paramedics could mea- quired an advantage. With this tillage ca- surably reduce infart mortality and raise pability many began looking for addi- life expectancy in the Philippines. tional land tu add to their holdings, In many Third World countries there often absorbing smaller farms, whose is a particularly strong bias against rural owners lacked mechanical power. The areas that must be addressed. Urban net effect was a further concentration of areas invariably manage to command the land in the hands of wealthier landown- lion's share of investment in public ser- ers. A more equitable alternative would vices. Development economist Michael have been to use the resout.:es to import Lipton points out that in India, for ex- or domestically manufacture smaller ample, a youngster born in an urban set- two-wheel power tillers of the Japanese ting is eight times more likely to gain variety. an approach that would have aumission to college than one born in a helped smaller farmers remain competi- village.ze Similar contrasts can be found tive. 16 throughout the world in investment in A similar situation exists with trans- basic social services such as education portation planning. Given that there is and health care. not enough oil or other fuel to permit As it becomes clearer that the world

219 (204) Slate of the World-1984 economy is not likely to resume the issue. as Fortner U.S Assistant Secretary rapid growth of the last few decades, the of State C. William Maynes observes, is emphasis in economic policymaking and wheal( r"the eciaomic strainsthat development planning needs to shift to- Third World goveniments areex- ward efforts to satisfy basic needs if liv- periencing ar" proving too great for ex- ing conditions are to improve. The isting political structures to sustain." s0 "basic needs" development strategy In a world experiencing economic concentrates on nutrition, literacy, and stresses 1..ore sevete titan any since the health care. Social planners will need to thirties, political stability may depend on acknowledge that for a person with a ioaf reducing inco..i disparity to a range of bread an additional crust is of little that is morally acceptable and politically value, but for someone who has only a tenable. single crust of bread. a second crust can greatly improve the quality of life. Countries with severely skewed income distribution patterns often lack social cohesiveness, making it difficult to Now GUNS OR BUTTER mobilize for the achievement of specific goals. South Africa is facing this di- The past generation has witnessed an lemma as it confronts a threatening pop- unprecedentedmilitarizationof the ulation explosion. When commenting world economy. Prior to World War II, on a recent governmental commission military expenditures claimed less than I report on projected population growth percent of gross world output. In 1963 in South Africa, Professor David Welsh they consumed 6 percent. In real terms, of the University ofCapetown observed: military expenditures increased some "Reading the somber unemotive facts twentyfold between the early thirties and piled up by the science committee. one early eighties. is made aware that we have a time bomb The militarization of the world econ- ticking away in our midst. If future popu- omy. initially spurred by U.S.-Soviet ri- lations are to control population growth valry, has spread to the developing the old order of racial supremacy and world as well. Increasingly, countries are discrimination, of forced migrancy and seeking security in military power. In poverty. of inadequate housing, and 1983. this translated into global military unequal education will all have to go." expenditures of $663 billion, a sum that Without these social adjustments. the re- exceeds the combined income of the port concluded. it would be virtually im- poorest half of mankind. (See Table 11- possible to bringfertility down fast 2.) This trend threatens society in two enough to avoid a Malthusian catastro- ways. As militarization and moderniza- phe. is tion have proceeded apace over the past Given the grossly inequitable income generation. new weapons have evolved distribution patternsin many Third that possess an unprecedented destruc- World countries, the potential for social tive capacity. Much of this destructive unrest and political unstability is high. potential is vested in some 50,000 nu- This is painfully evident in Africa, where clear weapons, 98 percent of them in the incomes are now falling in so many hinds of the two superpowers.21 countries, and in Latin American coun- The second threat to society from tries with large external debts, where se- militarization is less direct. stemming vere belt tightening measures are re- from the diversion of resources away quired to maintain credit-worthiness. At from pressing social needs. Swedish Un-

22 Reshaping Economic Policies (205) Table 11-2. World Military Expenditures, U.S. initiative that would lessen interna- 1973-83 (in 1980 dollars) tional tensions and permit the Soviets to focus on their internal economic prob- Annual lems. In his missile-freeze speech in Year Expenditures Increase early 1982, President Brezhnev said, (billion dollars) (percent) "We have not spent. nor v;i11 we spend a 1973 474 111. single ruble more for these purposes 1974 488 3.0 than is absolutely necessary." As Soviet 1975 503 3.0 analyst Marshall Goldman notes, this de- 1976 509 1.2 parts from past statements since Soviet 1977 519 2.0 leaders normally omit cost considera- 1978 532 2.5 tions when discussing military matters, 1979 554 4.1 and it may well reflect a Soviet interest in 1980 561 1.2 reordering priorities.24 1981 579 3.2 Although Brezhnev's successor, Yuri 1982 619 6.9 Andropov, has not publicly addressed 19831 663 7.1 this point, the Soviet economy is clearly 'Preliminary estimate by Worldwatch Institute. suffering from the heavy diversion of in- soustcz: Stockholm international Peace Research vestment capital to the military sector. Institute. World kmaatetris and Asmara*. SIPRI One consequence of the heavy Soviet Yearbook 1983 (New York: Taylor & Franck. Inc.. emphasis on military production is that 1983). the Soviet Union is militarily strong and der-Secretary of State Inga Thorsson, agriculturally weak. Now the world's who chaired a U.N. group studying the largest food importer, it depends heavily relationship between disarmament and on grain imports from the United States, development, reports that the study the very country its military buildup is "presents overwhelming evidence that aimed at.26 contemporary military establishments For the United States, the diversion of investment capital to the armsproduc- significantly distort and undermine the ing sector is depriving the remainder of very basis of sustained economic and so the economy of investment capital. One cial development inallcountries."22 consequence is that old plant and equip- Every dollar spent for military purposes ment is not being replaced, leading to a reduces the public resources available decline in the U.S. competitive position for other purposes. Tice implications of in the world economy. The competitive this are most evident at the national advantage in basic industries such as level. Although the United States leads steel and automobiles is shifting toward the world in military expenditures the countries with more modern, more ener- military share of the Soviet economy is gy-efficient plants and equipment. Econ- substantially larger, an estimated 9-10 omist Robert Lekachman observes that percent compared with 6 percent for the "the huge deficit engendered by impru- United States. This drain of resources dent tax cuts and even more misguided from agriculture and the consumer- enlargement of the Pentagon rakeoff goods sector of the Soviet economy is froth the economy have turned the Trea leading to a markedly slower rate of sury into a potential competitor for rela- progress than was achieved as recently tively scarce investment resources and as a decade ago.2s contributed heavily to the skittishness of Conditions within the Soviet Union the financial markets."26 suggest tl.' its leaders will respond to a At the global level, research expendi 221 (206) State of the World-1984 tures devoted to the development of new not conducive to the cooperative ad- weapon systems overshadow the strictly dress of problems. military share of the world economy. An The progressive militarization of the estimated 23 percent of all investment world economy h also beginning to in science attd technology is designed to affect the stability and integrity of the either improve existing weapon sys- international economic system. Weap- tems or develop new ones. (See Table ons purchases have contributed to the 11-3.) burdensome debt with which many Some 500,000 of the world's finest Third World countries are now saddled. scientists and engineers work in military Within the United States, growth in mili- research.27 Given the skill levels re- tary expenditures during the early eight- quired in developing new weapon sys- ies has contributed heavily to the record tems, itis likely that the share of top fiscal deficits. It is certain to keep inter- talent engaged in this destructive field of est rates high in world financial markets endeavor is well above the 22 percent of for years to come, pushing debt-bur- scientists involved overall. Not only do dened 'Third World countries toward.' military expenditure dominate the glob- fault. As of the mid-eighties the greatest al research and development budget, single threat to world financial security but they far exceed the combined re- may be the enormous U.S. fiscal deficit, search funds to develop renewable en- part of it incurred in the name of na- ergy technologies, expand food output, tional security. and improve contraceptives. The economic backdrop to militariza- Costly though these diversions of tion is changing. During the third quar- financial and scientific resources are, ter of this century, the world was able to they may be matched by the claims that have both more guns and more butter. militarization makes on the time of Since 1978, however, world military ex- political leaders. More and more of the penditures have expanded at more than working day of these individuals ap- 4 percent per year in real terms, com- pears to be absorbed in attempts to re- pared with 1.7 percent for the world solve hue' national conflict in one part economy.2e With per capita income for of the world or another. Not only does the world as a whole stagnating since conflict divert the energies of political 1979, increasing the military share of the leaders from other tasks, but the con- gross world product has been possible frontational climate that exists, particu- only by reducing civilian consumption. larly between the two superpowers, is It is this fundamental change in the eco-

Table 11-3. Estimated Diversion of World Resources to Military Use, 1980 Resource Diversion to Military Use Military expenditure 5561 billion 6 percent of gross world product Labor force 50 million workers Land 1 percent of earth's land surface Expenditure on military science and 23 percent of total expenditure on science technology and technology scientists and research workers engaged 22 percent of wodd total in military research some: Worldwatch institute estimates based on data in Inga Thorsson, '"Guns and butter: Can the world he both?." hurrnaholutt Labour &vim July/August 1983.

44,no^ 4 Reshaping Economic Policies (207) nomic backdrop against which resources lar is gaining leverage in many Third are allocated between military and non- World countries as they are forced to military sectors that may force political turn to it for investment capital. If their leaders back to the drawing board in al- economic viability and capacity to ser- locating priorities. vice debt hinges on reducing military ex- That military expenditures could expenditures and foreign exchange outlays pand when the economy is stagnating is for arms imports, the IMF may be able to an indication that the roots of militariza- turn national policies in a more rational tion are deep in the body politic. Ruth direction. Leger Sivard, compiler of the annual World Military and Social Expenditures. notes that "even long established de- Weapons purchases havecon- mocracies, where civilian control of the tributed to the burdensome debt military is a firm tradition, are not im- mune to the effects of the military power with which many Third World they have created in the name of de- countries are now saddled. fense."" Within national governments, departments or ministries of defetrc typically dominate the budgetary pi fl- Yet another possibility is the emer- cess. gence of a strong national political Sivard notes that the arms-producing leader or international figure who has industry is "one of the most prosperous the stature to turn the world away from and powerful industries in the world militarization. An example of this pro- today with unparalleled resources to in- cess on a smaller scale is the way coun- fluencepoliticaldecisions.As sales tries in Western Europe have success- agent for a burgeoning government fully ended generations of enmity and sponsored trade in arms. it takes on im- conflict. In part this is due to postwar portant policy making functions which visionaries such as Jean Monnet who saw determine priorities both at home and in a European community as a solution.s1 foreign countries."se Countering the Exactly how the current worldwide con- military-industrial complex that Presi- flict between the military goals of gov- dent Eisenhower warned about as he was ernments and people's aspirations for a leaving office will not be easy. Only when better life will be resolved remains to be people become aroused in large num- seen. But it seems clear that if militariza- bers is the militarization of the world tion of the world economy continues. economy likely to be reversed. Rising the social costs will be high. public awareness of where current world One glimmer of hope in this field re- military expenditures and policies could sides in Argentina. where the newly lead has translated into some of the larg- elected government, the first nonmili- est political demonstrations and mass tary government in almost eight years, is rallies ever held in Western Europe or planning to reduce military expendi- the United States. New organizations are tures sharply Shortly after his election springing up on both sides of the Atlan- on October 30, 1983, President-elect tic to counter what is perceived to be a Raul Alfonsin announced plans to boost dangerous drift of events. spending on education and welfare by Another possible hope for reversing cutting military spending. Should he the trend toward militarization lies with succeed. he might be followed by other the International Monetary Fund (IMF) governments in similarly dire economic and the World Bank. The IMF in panicu- straits."

223 (208) Stateofthe World-1984 PRIORITIES: BACK TO THE in a position to provide sufficient food for the children of this world."ss DRAWING BOARD Faltering development strategies in The mounting economic stresses of re- the Third World can succeed only if they cent years make it clear that existing are reoriented. Auto-centered develop- policies and priorities are not working ment models borrowed from the industrial countries and left over from the age well. In the absence of a massive reord- ofoil serve the needs of a small minority, ering of prioritiesone that shifts natu- an affluent elite. As Soedjatmoko, an In- ral resources and political energies from donesian and rector of the United Na- the arms race to efforts to brake world tions University in Tokyo, has observed, population growth, to protect the agro- industrial growth needs to be redirected nomic and biological resource systems, toward meeting the needs of the major- and to spur the energy transitioneco- ity.% Such an industrial strategy would nomic conditions will almost certainly focus less on large tractors and more on continue to deteriorate. two-wheel power tillers, less on automo- In many ways the human prospect is biles and more on motor scooters and tied to two transitionsfrom primary bicycles, less on nuclear power plants dependence on fossil fuels to a reliance and more on simple solar water heaters. on renewable energy resources, and To be successful, each country needs to from an equilibrium of high birth and forge its own industrial development death rates to one of low birth and death strategy, one responsive to its particular rates. Completion of the former involves needs and circumstances. a restructuring of the global economy; A successful transition from fossil the latter depends on basic changes in fuels to renewable energy will require a reproductive behavior. far more energy-efficient economy than As things are now going, the human now exists. In the past, developing coun prospect is being shaped by population tries everywhere could simply emulate growth, by the depletion of both renew- the oilcentered energy economies of able and nonrenewable resources, and the industrial countries. Now as they by the arms race. Advances such as bio- begin to move away from petroleum to- technology, microcomputers, and the ward renewables, each country must tai- associated electronicsrevolutionare lor its energy plan to its indigenous ensure to help shape the future, but the dowmentofreplenishable energy dominant influence will be the basic pro- resources. The transition to renewables cesses used to produce energy and food. can endow an economy with a perma- German novelist Gtinter Grass elo- nence that oil-based societies lack. It quently made this point in a lecture: "To could also lead the world away from the be sure, we can make great new discov- existing inequitable, inherently unstable eries with our technological skill and international oil regime because renew scientific abilitywe can split the atoms, able energy sources are locally available see to the end of the universe, and reach in all countries. the moon. But these milestones of Completing the demographic transi human progress occur in the midst of a don to low birth and death ratesis society sunk in a statistically proven bar clearly possible, as a dozen countries barism. All those atom-spiitters, those havedemonstrated. These societies conquerers of space, those who punctu- have eliminated population growth as a ally feed their computers and gather, source of ecological stress and resource store and evaluate all their data; none is scarcity. Not surprisingly, these 12 coun-

224 Reshaping Economic Policies (209) tries with zero population growth have In the simplest terms, we are in a race highly equitable income distributions, to see if we can slow, and eventually halt, all ranking near the top internationally. population growth before local life-sup- Their improvement in economic and so- port systems collapse. And we are in a cial conditions has been so pervasive race to reverse the nuclear anus buildup that tto special effort was needed to before we self-destruct. For many, the bring population growth to a halt. Other threatened decline in living standards majorindustrialcountriesoutside has become a reality. Some countries Europe, such as the United States and have tried to postpone such declines by the Soviet Union, however, have not going heavily into debt. But over the reached zero population growth and do long term, only a basic reformulation of not yet have apolicy for doing so. Within development strategies, including popu- the Third World some countries are lation policies, will save us. Itis no making steady progress in bringing longer a matter of tinkering with priori- down birth rates, but only a few have ties. Only a thorough reordering will do. adequate programs. If these countries The future is both discouraging and are to stop population growth within an hopeful. With whole continents ex- acceptable time frame, vigorous national periencing a decline in living standards leadership and strong incentives for there is ample ground for pessimism. smaller families will be required. Gov- The worldwide loss of momentum in ernments that fail are likely to see their improving living conditions is not en- effortsto improve living conditions couraging. Yet the problems we face overrun by the growth in human num- are of our own making, and thus within bers. our control. On the optimistic side, Given the obvious impact of rapid every threat to sustainability has been population growth on human welfare, it successfully addressed by at least a few is inexcusable that an estimated two- countries. Even without any further ad- thirds of all couples in the Third World, vances in technology every major prob- excluding China, still lack ready access lem can be solved, every major human to family planning services. An es- need satisfied. The issue is not technol- timated fourfold increase in family plan- ogy or resources, but awareness and ning expendituresfrom $920 million politicalwill. Whether the future is to $3,700 millionis needed to make bright and promising or dark and bleak population stabilization a realistic goal. hinges on how quickly we can mobilize This increase of $2,800 million repre- politically to bring about the changes in sents less than two days' worth of global policiesandprioritiesthatcircum- military expenditures at the 1983 rate .35 stances call for.

225 Notes

Chapter 1. Overview ington, D.C.: 1983). Increase in U.S. wood I. impliiations of the phrase "nuclear use is from DOE. Estimates of US. Wood Energy Consumption from 1949 to 1981 (Washington, winter," coined by research scientist Richard P. Turco of R & D Associates. Marina del D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, Ray. Calif., were discussed by Carl Sagan at 1982). the Conference on the Long-Term World- 5. California Energy Commission. "Large wide Biological Consequences of Nuclear California Wind Projects Installed in 1981 War, Washington. D.C., October 31- Novem- and 1982," and "Large-Scale California ber 1. 1983. For the principal conference pa- Wind Projects Planned for1983." Sac- pers. see Science. December 23. 1983. ramento. Calif.. unpublished. 1983. Residen- 2. World oil consumption data arc from tial electrical needs estimated by Worldwatch American Petroleum Institute (API). Basic Pe- Institute. troleum Data Book (Washington, D.C.: 1983) 6. The current status of alcohol fuels in with 1983 estimates by Worldwatch Tnstitute Brazil is reviewed by James Bruce. "Brazil's based on "Midyear Review and Forecast." Oil Alcohol Export Prospects Shrink But Domes- and Gas journal. July 25, 1983. tic Mart Continues Growth." journal of Com- 3. OECD projections of 1985 generating merce. April 5. 1983, and "Brazil's Alcohol capacity are frominternational Energy Project Flourishing." journal of Commerce, Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook (Paris: June 1, 1983: for a more critical review. see Organisation for Economic Co-operation Peter T. Kilborn. "A Switch to Alcohul As and Development. 1982): reactor cancella- Automobile Fuel is Gaining in Brazil." New tions in the U.S. are from Atomic Industrial I'm* Times. November 12. 1983. Forum, Washington. D.C., private communi- 7. For waste paper recovery in the Nether- cation. November 14. 1983. lands and Japan. see United Nations Food 4. This illustration compares the amount and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Secre- of nuclear electricity and firewood purchased tariat. Advisory Committee on Pulp and by end users in 1982, expressed in equivalent Paper. "Waste Paper Data 1978-80." pre- energy units. Nuclear power data and con- pared for 22nd session of Advisory Commit- version factors are from U.S. Department of tee, Rome, May 25-27, 1981: U.S. container Energy (DOE), Energy information Adminis- deposit legislation is .eviewed in William K. tration (EIA), 1982 Annual Energy Review Shireman et al.. Can and Bottle Bills:the (Washington, D.C.: 1983). Wood use esti- CalP1RG-BLS Study Group Report (Stanford. mate is from US. Department of Agriculture Calif.: California Public Interest Research (USDA) and DOE. A Biomass Energy Production Group and the Stanford Environmental Law and Use Plan for the United States. 1983-90. Ag- Society. 1981): for worldwide recycling of ricultural Economic Report No. 505 (Wash- aluminum, see Leonard L. Fischman, World 226 Notes (211)

Mineral Trends and V. S Supply Problems(Wash- Francis. Inc., 1983). Per capita expenditure ington. D.C.: Resources for the Future. 1980) was calculated with world population from and The Aluminum Association. Inc., Mums- Population Reference Bureau,1983 World numStatistical Review for 1981(Washington. Population Data Sheet(Washington,D.C.: D.C.: 1982). l983). 8. For a review of China's population poli- 15. Developing countries imported arma- cies, see H. Yuan Tien. "China: Demo- ments in 1980 worth some $19.5 billion and graphic Billsonaire."PopiationIiii 'kiln(Wash- wheat and coarse grains valued at $19.45 bil- ington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau. lion. Arms import data are from Ruth Leger April 1983). Sivard.World Military and Social Expenditures (Washington. D.C.: World Priorities. 9. Estimate of India's ultimate stationary 1983 1983); grain import data are front USDA, population is from World Bank,World Devel- FAS, Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-28-83. opment Report 1983(New York: Oxford Uni- Washington, D.C.. September 1983. versity Press. 1983). 16. Sivard,World ,Militaryand 10. South Korea's reforestation program Social Expen- ditures is discussed in Erik Fckholm.Planting for the Future: Forestry for HumanNeeds (Washington. 17. For a discussion of the relation of ad- D.C.,: Worldwatch Institute. February 1979); vanced recovery techniques to future oil pro- Gujarat's program is described in Madhav duction levels, see WA,World Energy Outlook; Gadgil, S. Narenda Prasad. and Rauf Ali, for a review of the range of estimates of ulti- ForestManagement anIndia: A Cntecal Review mately recoverable reserves, see Richard (Bombay: Centre for Monitoring Indian H cede, AWorld Geography of Recoverable Carbon Economy, 1982). Resources in the Context of Possible Climatic Change 11. For topsoil loss, see calculations in (Boulder. Colo.: University of Colorado and National Center for Atmospheric Research. Chapter 4. "Conserving Soils." 1983). 12. Based on grain production data for re- 18. Estimate of excessive soil erosion in gions where grainis consumed directly the United States is based on total acreage rather than converted into livestock pro- affected by sheet and rill erosion from USDA. ducts, reported in USDA. Economic Re- Soil andWater Resources Conservation Act 1980 World Indices of Agri- search Service (ERS), Appraisal, Part 11(Washington, D.C.: 1980). FoodProduction culturaland 1930-1982 and acreage in Great Plains states affected by (unpublished printout) (Washington. D.C.: wind erosion from USDA. Soil Conservation 1983). Service. and Iowa State University Statistical 13. Grain export data are from USDA. Laboratory. Basic Statistics 1977 National Re- Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS),Foreign sources Inventory,Statistical Bulletin No. 686 Aviculture CircularFG- 13 -82. Washington. (Washington, D.C.: 1982). RC., April 1982; oil export data are from 19. FAO, Forest Resources Division,Trop- U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.interna- ical Forest Resources,Forestry Paper 30 (Rome: tional Energy Statistical Review(Washington, D.C.: 1982), and British Petroleum Com- 1982). pany. BPStatistical Review of World Energy 20. George H. Tomlinson and C. Ross Sil- (London; 1982). verside',Acid Depositon and Forest Damage-the European Linkage(Montreal, gpe.: Domtar. 14. World military expenditures are from Inc.. 1982). Stockholm International Peace Research In- stitute.WorldAnnaments andDisarmament, 21. Council on Environmental Quality. S1PR1 Yearbook 1983(New York: Taylor & EnvironmentalQuality/982(Washington. 227 (232) Notes D.C.:U.S. Government Printing Office, 30. Imports and recovery of scrap paper in 1983). South Korea and Mexico are discussed in 22. FAO, Production Yearbook (Rome: an- William U. Chandler, Materials Recycling: The nual. various years). Virtue of Necessity (Washington, D.C.: World- watch Institute, October 1983); the electric 23. FAO,YearbookofFisheryStatistics arc furnace isdiscussed in U.S. Office (Rome: annual. various years). of Technology Assessment. Technology and 24. For a review of the value of genetic SteelindustryContpetsuveness(Washington, resources, see "Genes from the Wild," D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, Earthscan Briefing Document No. 36, Earth. 1980). scan. Washington, D.C. , 1983. 31. For the role of Siberia in the Soviet 25. Statistics on the world tanker fleet can aluminum industry, see Theodore Shabad, be found in Shipping Statistics and Economics "The Soviet Aluminum Industry," Row (London: H. P. Drewry, Ltd., monthly); for a Materials Report, March 1983. discussion of shipbreaking, see Roger Viet- 32. James Bruce, "Brazil May Join Top voye, "Scrapping Supertankers.** Ott and Gas Aluminum Producers," Journal of Contmerm formal. February 14, 1983. July 16. 1983. 26. Robert J. Enright, **World Oil Flow, Refining Capacity Down Sharply'. Reserves 33. The collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery is discussed in Erik Eckholm, Losing Increase," Oil and Gas Journal. December 27, Ground: Environmental Stress and World Food 1982. Prospects (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 27. Figure on unemployment in the auto 1976); for statistics on the fish catch in Peru industry is from U.S. Department of Trans- and other countries, see FAO, Yearbook of portation, The 1.".S. ,Automobile Industry. 1980 Fakery Statistics. (Washington. D.C.: 1981); U.S. and Japanese auto production data are from Motor Vehicle 34. USDA. Soil and Water Resources Comer- Nlanufacturers Association. Motet. Vehicle Facts vation Act ( RCA). Summary of Appraisal, Parts I and Figures 82 (Detroit. Mich.: 1982). and 11. and Program Review Draft 1980 (Wash- ington, D.C.: 1980). 28. Data on auto dealers are from U.S. Bu- reau of the Census, Census of Retail Trade 35. Economic Report of the President (Wash- (Washington. D.C.: various years); data on ington,D.C.: U.S. Government Printing gasoline service stations are from National Pe- Office, 1983). troleum News Fact Book (Chicago. Ill: Hunter 36. Ibid. Publishing Co.. 1983). 37. Developing country and Eastern bloc 29. Estimate of solar equipment sales in debt estimates by Worldwatch Institute California is from Jerry Yude!son, Solar Ini- based on various press reports. tiative. Oakland, Calif., private communication, November 11..1983: for alcohol fuels in 38. Nigeria data are from FAO, Country Ta- Brazil, see Bruce, "Brazil's Alcohol Export bles of Production, Trade and Consumption of For- Prospects Shrink," and "Brazil's Alcohol est Products, Africa 1970-1980 (Rome: 1982). Project Flourishing"; the resurgence of the 39. James L. Rowe, Jr., "Latin America bicycle during the seventies is discussed in Loans Taking Toll on Banks," Washington Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Pest, November 6, 1983. Colin Norman, Running on Empty: The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World (New 40. World Bank, World Debt Tables (Wash- York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1979). ington, D.C.: 1983).

4 Notes (213) 41. International Monetary Fund.Monthly Yearbook SpecialIssueHistorical Supplement Financial Statistics 1980and1983 Yearbooks (New York: 1979). (Washington, D.C.: 1980 and 1983); General 8. John Knodel. Nibhon Debavalya. and Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.Interna- Peerasit Kamnuansilpa. "Thailand's Con- tional Trade 1982/ 1983(Geneva: 1983). tinuing Reproductive Revolution," Interna- 42. World oil consumption data are from tionalfamily Planning Perspectives,September API,Baser Petroleum Data Book;world oil trade 1980:Peerasit Kamnuansilpa,Aphichat data are from British Petroleum Company. Chamratrithirung, and John Knodel, "Thai. BP Statistical Review. land's Reproductive Revolution: An Up- date,"International family Planning Perspectives, June 1982. Chapter 2. Stabilizing Population 9. Henry P. David. "Mechai's Way.'People I. Information on growth rates, referred (London). Vol. 9, No. 4, 1982. to throughout this chapter, and other demo- 10. Sergio Diaz-Briquets and Lisandru graphic parameters for international com- Perez. "Cuba: The Demography of Revolu- pansun can be found in Population Refer- tion,"Population Bulletin(Washington, D.C.: ence Bureau,World Population Data Sheet Population Reference Bureau, April 1981); (Washington. D.C.: annual). Henry P. David, "Cuba: Low Fertility. Rela- tively High Abortion," intercom, Population 2. Population growth in recent years is re- Reference Bureau. Washington, D.C., vieed in the United Nations, Department of July/August 1983. Int ationat Economic and Social Affairs (DI .SA).World Population TrendsandPohnes- 11. Terence H. Hull, V.J. Hull. and M. 1981 hlonitoring Report. Volume 1,Population Singarimbun, "Indonesia's Family Planning Story: Success and Challenge." Studies. No. 79 (New York: 1982); 1983 esti- Population Bulletin(Washington. D.C.: Population Ref- mates are from Population Reference Bu- erence Bureau. November 1977); Geoffrey reau.World Population Data Sheet. McNicoll and Masri Singarimbun. "Fertility 3. Population Reference Bureau,World Decline in IndonesiaI: Background and Population Data Sheet. Proximate Determinants." and "Fertility De- cline in Indonesia II: Analysis and Interpreta- 4. Stephen Rapawy and Godfrey Baldwin, tion," Center for Policy Studies Working Pa- "Demographic Trends in the Soviet Union: pers, Nos. 92 and 93 (New York: Population 1950-2000," in Joint Economic Committee. Council. 1982). U.S. Congress.Soviet Economyinthe 1980s: Problems and Prospects(Washington. D.C.: U.S. 12. John S. Nagel. "Mexico's Population Government Printing Office, 1983); Centre PolicyTurnaround,"PopulationBulletin for Monitoring Indian Economy.Baste States- (Washington. D.C.: Population Reference ties Relating to the Indian Economy Vol. 2: States Bureau. December 1978): Jorge Martinez (Bombay: 1982). Manautou. ed..The Dnnographie Revolution in Mexico 1970-1980(Mexico City: Mexican In- 5- Population Reference Bureau.World stitute of Social Security. 1982). Population Data Sheet. 13. Debbie C. Tennison, "Europe is Ad- 6. Ibid. justing to a Long Recession That Some 7. H. Yuan Tien, "China: Demographic Economists See as Permanent."Wall Street Journal, Billionaire."Population Bulletin(Washington. December 2, 1982. D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, April, 14. Economic CommissionforAfrica 1983); United Nations DIESA.Demographic quote and World Bank assessment both from

229 (2141 holes

World Bank.Sub.Suhurate Afnca: ProgressRe- 26. Elizabeth J. Cron, "Production Versus porton Development Prospects and Programs Reproduction: A Threat to China's Develop- (Washington. D.C.: 1983) ment Strategy."World Development,June 15. Population Reference Bureau,World 1983. Population Data Sheet. 27. See,forexample. JohnRatcliffe. 16. U.S. DepanmentofAgriculture "Kerala: Testbed for Transition Theory," (USDA). Economic Research Service (ERS), Populi, U.N. Fund for Population Activities. World indices of Agricultural and Food Production, New York. Vol. 5, No. 2,1978. David 1950-82(unpublished printout) (Washing- Winder, "Literacy-the third world's beacon ton, D.C.: 1983). of hope."Christian Science Monitor,May 12, 1983. and W. Parker Maudlin, "The Determi- 17. World Bank,Accelerated Development in nants of Fertility Decline in Developing Sub-SaharanAfrwa: An Agenda forAction Countries: An Overview of the Available Evi- (Washington, D.C.: 1983). dence,"lnternahonal Family Planning Perspec- 18. Quoted in John Harte and Robert tives,September 1982. Soeolow. eds..The Patient Earth(New York: Holt. Rinehart and Winston. 1971). 28. Author's estimate. based on Bruce Stokes,Filling the Family Planning Gap(Wash- 19. United Nations.Prospects of Population: ington. D.C. :Worldwatch Institute, May Methodology and Assumptions,Population Stud- 1977) and subsequent progress in family ies No. 67 (New York: 1979). planning programs in China and other coun- 20. Estimates of hypothetical stationary tries. populations are from World Bank.World De- 29. Robert Lightbournejr.. and Susheela velopment Report 1983(New York: Oxford Singh. with Cynthia P. Green, "The World University Press. 1983); current-year popula- Fenility Survey: Charting Global Childbear- tions are from Population Reference Bureau, ing,"Population Bulletin(Washington. D.C.: World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau, March 1982); 21. See, for example. Lester R. Brown and Mary Mederios Kent and Ann Larson, "Fam- Pamela Shaw, SixSteps to a Sustainable Society ilySize Preferences: Evidence From the (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, World Fertility Surveys,"Reports on the World March 1982). For oil production trends, see Fertility Survey4 (Washington, D.C.: Popula- Chapter 3 of this report; grain production tion Reference Bureau. April 1982). trend is from USDA. ERS,World indices. 30. Nuray Fincancioglu, "Carrots and 22. Council on Environmental Quality Sticks,"People(London),Vol. 9, No. 4,1982. and U.S. Department of State.The Global 2000 Report to the President, Volume 1(Washing- 31. Ibid. ton. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 32. Pi.chao Chen, "11 M Chinese Opt for 1980). Only One Child Glory Certificate,"People 23. Wassily Leontief et al.,The Future of the (London), Vol. 9. No. 4, 1982; Planned Par- World Economy(New York: Oxford University enthood Federation of Korea,New Population Press, 1977). Policy in Korea: Social and Legal Support for Small 24. Gerald 0. Barney and Associates, Ar- Families(Seoul; 1982): Saw Swee.Hock, Popu lington. Va., private communication, Octo- lotion Control for Zero GrowthinSingapore(Sin. ber 26, 1983. gapore; Oxford University Press. 1980). 25. Tien, "China: Demographic Billion. 33. Figures on current payments in India aire." are from Pravin Visaria and Leela Visaria,

230 Votes (215) "India's Population: Se( und and Grommg." field. Va :National Technical Information Population Bulletin(Washington. D.C.: Popu- Service. 1978). lation Reference Bureau. October 1981); In- 4. Patricia Smith. U.S. Department of En- dian wage data are from Centre for Monitor- ergy (DOE), Washington, D.C., private coming Indian Economy,Basic Statistics:Ban- munication, June 15, 1983. gladesh information is from Michael Jordan. U.S. Department of State. Washington. MC., 5. DOE. Energy Information Administra- private commumcation. January 5. 1983. tion (EIA),1982 / maid Eneigy Review(Wash- ington, D.C.: 1983). 34. Judith Jacobsen, PromotingPopulation Stabilization;IncentivesforSmallFamilies 6 API,Basic Petroleum Data Book;DOE, (Washington, D.C.: Worldleatch Institute. EIA,Monthly Energy Review.Washington, June 1983). D.C.. August 1983: per capita consumption calculated with U.S. population data from 35. For an early review of community in, U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of centives. see Lenni W. Kangas. "Integrated the Census,Statistical Abstract of the (Anted Incentives for Fertility Control."Same,Sep- States.1982-83(Washington, D.C.: U.S. tember 25. 1970: effuns in Thailand are Government Printing Office. 1982). described in Henry P. David. "Incentives, 7. DOE. EIA.1982AnnualEnergy Review. ReproductiveBehavior,andIntegrated Community Development in Asia,"Studies 8. Philip F. Palmedo and Pamela Baldwin, in Family Planning.May 1982; Indonesian The Contribution of Renewable Resources and efforts are described in Hull. Hull. and Sin- Energy Conservation As Alternatives to imported garimbun.'Inclunesia'sFamily Planning Oilin Developing Countries (Port Jefferson, Story." N.Y.: Energy/Developmen, International, 1980). 9. For example. coal delivered to power Chapter 3, Reducing Dependence en Oil plants in 1980 at $28.76 per short ton (con- I. World oil consumption data are esti- taining 21.3 million Btu) had an energy-con- mates of demand for refined petroleum pro- tent cost of $1,35 per million Btu. Residual ducts from American Petroleum Institute fuel oil (#6) at 55.10 per gallon in 1980 and (AP1).Basic Petroleum Data Book(Washington. 5.8 million Btu per 42-gallon barrel carried D.C.: 1983), The 40 billion barrel estimate is an energy content cost of $3,97 per million based on a projection of 7 percent annual Btu. From DOE, EIA,1982 Annual Energy Re- growth in consumption from the 1973 world view. oil consumption of 20.4 billion barrels. 10. DOE. EIA.1982 Annual Energy Review. 2. The projection of hypothetical world oil 11. See Chapter 8, "Rivers of Energy," in consumption is based on the growth rate de Daniel Deudney and Christopher Flavin, Re- scribed in note I; proven reserves of oil are newableEnergy: The Power to Choose(New York: from API, BasicPetroleumDataBook;estimate W.W. Norton & Co., 1983). and World Bank, of ultimately recoverable reserves.is from M. Energy Department, "The Energy Transi- King Hubbert. "World Energy Resources," tion in Developing Countries," Report No. presented to the Tenth Commonwealth Min. 4442, Washington. D.C.. April 15, 1983. ing and Metallurgical Congress, Ottawa, 12. See Chapter 7, "Nuclear Power," in Canada. 1974. International Energy Agency (IEA),World 3, Robert U. Ayres. for Oak Ridge Na- Energy Outlook(Paris: Organisation for Eco- tional Laboratory.WorldwideTransportation/ nomicCo-operationandDevelopment. Energy Demand Forecast: 1975-2000(Spring. 1982).

231 (216) Votes 13. Kenneth E. Skog and Irene A. Waiter- 21. Lee Schipper and Andrea Ketoff. son,Residential Fru !wood Vie in the United Slates: "Home Energy Use in Nine OECD Coun- 1980-81 (Madison, Wisc., Forest Products tr;es, 1960-80,"Energy Policy,June 1983. Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service. U.S. Depart- 22. "Towards a Minimum Oil Economy," ment of Agriculture, 1983). OECD Observer,Lester R. Brown,Buildinga 14. Romanian oil production from DOE. Sustainable Society(New York: W.W. Norton & EIA, International Energy Annual1981(Wash Co. 1981); Information Office, Embassy of ington, D.C., 1982): reviews of Soviet energy France. Washington, D.C.> private communi- consumption patterns and fuel substitution cation, June 2, 1981. strategies arc found in Jonathan B. Stein. 23. "Japan Advances in Diversifying En- "Soviet Energy."Energy Policy.December ergy Sources."Oil and Gas Journal,January 1981. and in Thane Gustafson. "Soviet En- 18, 1982. ergy Policy." and Laurie Kurtzweg and Al- bina Tretyakova. "Soviet Energy Consump- 24. John Vinocur, "Germans Insist on tion: Structure and Future Prospects." both Speed,"New York Times,July I, 1979. in Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Con- 25. "Towards a Minimum Oil Economy." gress,Soviet Economyinthe 1980v Problems and OECD Observer. Prospects (Washington. D.C.: U.S. Govern- ment Printing Office, 1983). 26. Jose Goldemberg. "Energy Policies in Brazil,"Economic and Political Weekly.Febru- 15. Estimates of alcohol production for ary 26, 1983. automotive fuels in Brazil are from World Energy Industry.The Energy Decade1970-80 27. Gustafson, "Soviet Energy Policy." (Cambridge. Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Co., 28. Ibid.; Kurtzweg and Tretyakova. "So- 1982). with estimates for 1980-82 by World- viet Energy Consumption." watch Institute based on data in "Brazil's Al- cohol Export Prospects Shrink But Domestic 29. Istvan Dobozi. "The 'Invisible' Source of 'Alternative' Energy,"Natural Resources Mart Continues Growth," Journalof Commerce. April 5. 1983, and "Brazil's Alcohol Project Forum,July 1983. Flourishing,"Journal of Commerce,June 1. 30. Vaclav Smil, "Energy Development in 1983. China,"Energy Polity,June 1981. 16. Emil Parente. Fluor Corporation. Ana- 31. DOE, EIA, 1982Annual Energy Review; heim, Calif.. private communication. August "Midyear Review and Forecast," Oil and Gas 17, 1983. Journal.July 25. 1983. 17. DOE. EIA. InternationalEnergy Annual 32. IEA,World Energy Outlook. 1981. 33. Ibid. 18. "Towards a Minimum Oil Economy; 34. DOE, EIA, 1982Annual Energy Outlook Progress of Eight Countries," OECDObserver, With Projections to 1990(Washington, D.C.: July 1981. 1983); Canadian survey from IEA,World En- 19. B. H. S. Jayewardene. managing edi- ergy Outlook;"Slow Growth Seen for Syn- tor.Ceylon Daily News. privatecommunica- thetic Fuels."Oil and Gas Journal,May 2. tion. August 27. 1979. 1983. 20. A blueprint for achieving the energy 35. J.C. Barros.Petrobras, New York, efficiency potential of buildings is outlined in N.Y., private communication, October 3. Avraham Shama, "Energy Conservation in 1983; William Orme, Jr.. "Mexico Raises U.S. Buildings."Energy Policy,June 1983. GasolinePrices." Journal of Commerce.April 8. 232 ... Notes (217) 1983; "Yugoslavia Begins Gasoline Ration- 8. USDA, ERS. "World Agriculture Out- ing to Counter Shortage,"Won Street Journal. look and Situation," Washington, D.C., June October 11, 1982; "Poles Facing Further 1983. Cuts in Gasoline,"Journal of Commerce.Sep- 9. Wouter Tim. :germ Optiorufor Long- tember 30, 1983. Term Development(ualtimore. Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, for the World Chapter 4. C stserving Soils Bank, 1974). 10. John M. Schiller et al., "Development 1. Anson R. Bertrand, "Overdrawing the of Areas of Shifting -ultivation in North Nation's Research Accounts,"Journal of Soil Thailand 'Thai-Australia Land Development andWater Conservation,May /June 1980. Project.' " in American Society of Agronomy, 2. The :mpact of land degradation on the Soil Erosion. patterns of daily life is made powerfully clear 11. R. F. W'atters, in in "The Fragile Mountain." a documentary Shifting Cultivation Latin America(Rome: United Nations Food produced by Sandra Nichols and shown on and Agriculture Organization. 1971). the PBS series Nova on October 19, 1982. 3. P. 0. Aina et al., quoted in R. Lal, 12. Sheldon Judson. "Erosion of the Land, or What's Happening to Our Conti- "Effective Conservation Farming Systems for nents,"American Scientut,July/August 1968. the Humid Tropics," in American Society of Agronomy,Sod Erosion andConservationin the 13. Jiang Degi et al., "Soil Erosion and Tropics.ASA Special Publication No. 43 Conservation in the Wuding River Valley" (Madison, wisc.: 1982). (Beijing, China: Yellow River Conservancy 4. S. A. El- Swaify and E. W. Dangler, Commission, April 1980), cited in El-Swaify and Dangler, "Rainfall Erosion in the Trop- "Rainfall Erosion in the Tropics: A Stateof- ics"; U.S. Water Resources Council,The Na- the-Art," in American Society of Agronomy, tion's Water Resources 1975-2000, Volume 2: Soil Erosion. WaterQuantity. Quality andRelated Land Consid- 5. These and other conservation practices erations(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government introduced in the thirties are discussed in Printing Office, 1978). Donald Worster,The Dust Bowl(New York: 14. Ganges data from American Society of Oxford University Press. 1979), especially in Agronomy,Sod Erosion:Mississippi data from Chapter 14, "Making Two Blades of Grass U.S. Water Resources Council,The Nntion's Grow." Water Resources 1973-2000. 6. Figures on summer fallow are from U.S. 15. J. M. Prospero et al., "Atmospheric Department of Agriculture (USDA), Eco- Transport of Soil Dust from Africa to South nomic Research Service (ERS),Economic In- America." Nature, February 12, 1981. dicators of the Farm Sector Production and Effi- fumy Stars us, 1981(Washington, D.C.: U.S. b. Josef R. Parrington et al.. "Asian Dust: Government Printing Office, 1983). Seasonal Transport to the Hawaiian Is- lands,"Science,April 8, 1983. 7. Kenneth Grant, "Eror'on in 1973-74: The Record and the Challenge,"Journal of 17. Data on soil loss from water erosion Soil and Water Conservation,January/Februar are from USDA,The Soil and Water Resources l975., USDA, Soil Conservation Service, and Conservation Act: 1980 Anna:sat, Part/1 (Wash- !ma State University Statistical Laboratory, ington, D.C.: 1980); data on wind erosion are Basic Statistics 1977 National Resources inven- from USDA,National Resources Inventory.The tory.Statistical Bulletin No. 686 (Washing- "excessive" loss of topsoil from wind erosion ton, D.C.: 1982). is probably understated when using the five-

233 (218) .Voles tonper-acre standard because of the slower 27. Research by R. Lal of the International rate of formation of Great Mains soils and the Institute of Tropical 4..culture. lbadan, diminished opportunity to offset productivity Nigeria. cited by El-Swaify and Dangler. losses with additional fertilization. "Rainfall Erosion in the Tropics." Even more pronounced yield reductions are investigated 18. K. G. Teiwani. Land Use Consultants in J. S. C. Mbagwu. R. Las. and T. W. Scott. International. New Delhi. private conimuni. "Effects of Desurfacing on Alfisols and Ul- cation. July 3, 1983: Centre for Science and tisols in Souther:4 Nigeria 1: Crop Perform- Environment. The Slate Of India's Environment ance," unpublished. 1982 (New Delhi: 1982). 28. EI-Swaify and Dangler. "Rainfall Ero- 19. Quoted M Vera Rich. "Soil First." Na, sion in the Tropics." The effects of environ- bre. February 12. 1982. mental degradation on the life span of the 20. Abandoned cropland figure cited is Mangla Reservoir are discussed in Erik Eck- from U.S. CentralIntelligence Agency. holm. Losing Ground: Environinnital Stress and V IS R Agricultural Alfas (Washington. D.C.: World Food Prospects (New York: W.W. Norton 1974: Thane Gustafson. 'Transforming & Co., 1976). Soviet Agriculture Brezhnev's Gamble on 29. U.S. Agency for International Devel- Land Improvement." Public Policy, Summer opment. Environmental and Natural Resource 1977. Management in Developing Countries: A Report to 21. P. Poletayev and S. Yashukova. "Envi- Congress (Washington. D.C.: 1979). ronmental Protection and Agricultural Pro, 30. Eckholm, Losing Ground. duction."nonoinikaSershogoKhozyaystva (Moscow)., November 1978. 31. B. B. Vohra. Land and Water Manage- ment Problem in India, Training Volume 8 22. P. S. Tregubov. "Soil Rainstorm Ero- (New Delhi: Ministry of Home Affairs. 1982). si in and Its Control in the U.S.S.R.." presented to the International Conference on 32. Dr. Frank Wadsworth. "Deforest... in SO Erosion and Conservation. Honolulu. -Death to the Panama Canal," in U.S. De- Hawaii, January 16-22. 1983: U.S erosion partment of State,. Office of Environmental rates are from USDA, National Resources Inven- Affairs. Proceedings of the V .S Strategy Conference tory. on Tropical Deforestation. June 12-14, 1978 (Washington, D.C.: 1978). 23. National Soil Erosion-Soil Productiv- ity Research Planning Cne..mittee. USDA. 33. A comprehensive introduction to the Science and Education Administration. "Soil techniques and advantages of conservation Erosion Effects on Soil Productivity: A Re- tillage is provided M William A, Hayes, Mini- mum Tillage Farming and H. M. Young, No- search Perspective." Journal of Soil and Water Tillage Farming (bound in one volume) Conservation. March/April 198I. (Brookfield, Wisc.: No-Till Farmer. Inc., 24. Ibid. 1982). 25. G. W. Langdale et al.. "Corn Yield Re- 34. Robert J. Gray, American Farmland duction on Eroded Southern Piedmont Trust, statement before the Subcommittee Soils." Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. on Conservation. Credit and Rural Devel- September/October 1979. opment. Committee on Agriculture, U.S. House of Aepresentatives,Washington, 26. W. E. Larson, F. J. Pierce,, and R. H. Dowdy, "The Threat of Soil Erosion to D.C., May 4, 1983. Long-Term Crop Production," Saence. Feb- 35. Poletayev and Yashultova. "Environ- ruary 4. 1983. mental Protection."

234 4 Votes (219) 36. National Sod ErosionSoil Proclisctsv- Science. University of Hawaii at Mama. fty Research Planning Committee. "Soil Ero- Honolulu, Hawaii. Prnceedings of the ASA sion Effects on Soil Productivity." symposium were published in American So- 37. The ErosionProductivity Impact Cal- ciety of Agronomy. Soil Erosion. culator is described in USDA. Soil Conserva- tion Service, National Bulletin No. 450.3.5. Chapter 5. Protecting Forests Washington, D.C., January 17, 1983. The Productivity Index (PI) is descrihed in Lar- I. United Nations Food and Agriculture son. Pierce. and Dowdy, "The Threat of Soil Organization (FAO). Forest Resources Divi- Erosion to Long-Term Crop Production." sion. Tropical Forest Resources, Forestry Paper International work on the PI is being co- 30 (Rome: 1982). ordinated by the International Federation 2. FAO Forest Resources Division. Train- of Institutes for Advanced Study (IRAS) ed Forest Resources; United Nations Environ- program. "Analyzing Biospheric Change." ment Programme, "The Global Assessment Delft. The Netherlands, of Tropical ForestResources,"Nairobi. 38. Roosevelt's personal commitment to Kenya. April 1982. sosI ronservation and particularly to the shel- 3. Norman Myers, Consultant in Environ- terbelt idea is recalled in Richard Strout. ment and Development, "Comments on "Windbreaks: FOR Legacy," Christian Science 'Global Forests' by Roger A. Sedjo and Mar- Monism, February 8, 1982. ion Clawson," Oxford. England. June 1983. 39. B. B. Vohra. "Managing India's Land 4. Norman Myers. Conversion of Tropical and Water Resources," Ministry of Petro- Mout Forests (Washington, D.C.: National leum. New Delln, August 1978. Academy of Sciences. 1980); Robert J. A. 40, Alfredo Sfeir-Younis. Agriculture and Goodland. "Environmental Ranking of Am- RuralDevelopment Department. World azonian Development Projects in Brazil," Bank, private communication. May 26, 1982. Environmental Conservation. Spring 1980. 41, Lloyd K.*:Ischer,discussion com- 5. FAO Forest Resources Division. Tropi- ments. in Harold G. Halcrow. Earl 0. Heady. cal Forest Resources. and Melvin L. Cotner. eds.. Sod Conservation 6. Madhav Gadgil, S. Narenda Prasad, and Policies,Institutions and Incentives(Ankeny, Rauf Ali. Forest Management in India: A Critical Iowa: Soil Conservation Society of America. Review (Bombay: Centre for Monitoring In- 1982). dian Economy, 1982). 42. Ken Co.ok. "Surplus Madness." fourna/ 7. John S. Spears. "Small FarmersOr of Soil and Water Conservation, January/Febru- the Tropical Forest Ecosystem? A Brief Re- ary 1983, view of Sustainable Land Use Systems for 43. Symposia papers of the I 2th Interna- Tropical Forest Areas," presented to Inter- tional Congress of Soil Science, February 8- national Tropical Forestry Symposium, Yale 16, 1982. were published as Desertification and University. New Haven, Cnnn., April 15-16. Soils Policy (New Delhi: Indian Society of Soil 1980; Michael Arnold, "New Approaches to Science. 1982). Proceedings of the Interna- Tropical Forestry: A Habitat for More Than tional Conference on Soil Erosion and Con- Just Trees," Ceres. September/October 1979: servation, January 16-22. 1983. should be John I. Zerbe et al., for Forest Products Labo- available in 1984: abstracts of papers pre.. ratory, U.S. Forest Service. U.S. Department sensed at the conference can be obtained of Agriculture (USDA), Forestry Activities and from the Department of Agronomy and Soil Deforestation Problems in Developing Countries (no Notes (Washington. 1) C.. t: S. Government Prin- 21. George H. Tomlinson and C. Ross Sil- ting Offire. 1980). versides.And Deposition and Forest Damage-the European Linkage(Montreal, Que.: Domtar, 8. Spears. "Small Farmers-Or the Tropi- Inc.. 1982). cal Forest Ecosystetn?" 22. Eugeniusz Pudlis. "Poland's Plight: 9. FAO Forest Rsourres I iv,sion.Tropi- Environment Damaged from Air Pollution t0; Forest Resources.Myers. Courntion ofTropi- and Arid Rain,"Ambw.Vol. XII, No.2, 1983. cal Moist Forests 23. Hubert W. Vogelmann. "Catastrophe 10. Zerhe et al.. ForestryActivities in Develop- on Camels Hump." Natural History. Novem- ing Countries. ber 1982. 1 1. %cm.Conversion of Tropnal Moist For- 24. Federal Minister of Food, Agriculture, ests. and Forestry. "Forest Damage Due to Air 12L' S. Depanment of Slate. Interagenry Pollution." Task Forre on Tropical Forests. The World's 25. Vogelmann, "Catastrophe on Camels Tiopwal Forests:.4Polny. Strategy. and Program Hump." for the United State,(Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing (Mice. 1980). 26. Gene E. Likens et al., "Acid Rain," Snentific Anierwan.Ortober 1979. 13. 11...ers.COMV71111$1 of Tropical Moist For- ests.Norman ht)erc. 1-Limburger Con- 27. Federal Minister of Food, Agriculture, nection How Central Anerira% Forests ik- and Forestry. "Forest Damage Due to Air corne North Amen Ifambnrgers."Ambit). Pollution. "' Vol X. No. 1. 1981 28. Gregory S. Wetstone and Armin Ro- 14 Mers.Conversion of Tropical Moist For- senrranz.AndRainin Europe and North Amer- ests, wa: National Responses to an internationalNob- km(Washington. D.C.: Environmental Law !S. FAO Forest Resourres Division,Tropi- Institute, 1983). cal Forest Resolvers. 29. National Research Council, Commit- 16. Erik Erkholm.Planting for the Future: tee on the Atmosphere and the Biosphere, Forestry for Human Needs( Washington. Atmosphere - Biosphere interactions:Toward A Bet- Worldwatch Institute. February 1979). ter Understanding of the Ecological Consequenres of 17.Myers. Goit..crsiouof Tropical MoistPer- Fossil Fuel Combustion(Washington, D.C.: Na- ms tional Academy Press. 1981). 18. FAO Finest Resources Division. TroPi- 30. National Research Council.Atmosphere- ratForest Resources Biosphere Interactions. 19. Myers. Conwrsibitof Tropical Most For- 31. Bernhard Ulrich, "Dangers for the ms. Forest Ecosystem Due to Acid Precipitation," translated for U.S. Environmental Protection 20. The Federal Minister of Food, Agri- Agency by Literature Research Company, culture. and Forestry, "Forest Damage Due Annandale. Va., undated. to Air Pollution: "the Situation in the Federal Repuhlir of Germany," Bonn. West Ger- 32. Vogelmann, "Catastrophe on Camels Hump." many. November 1982; results of 1983 forest survey are described in "One-Third of Ger. 33. Debate between John Fraser, M.P.. man Trees Hit By Aid Rain,"New Scientist. and John Madigan. U.S. Representative. Ociel rr27, 1983. Washington. D.C., October 25. 1982.

236 MA'S (221) 34. Vogelmann, "Catastrophe on Camels ests: The Resource,, the People, the Threat (Lon- Hump." don: Earthscan, 1982). 35. John J. Metzler, "Germany Battles 47. Myers, Conversion of Tropical Moist For- Acid-Rain Pollution." Journal of Commerce, ests; George Ledec, "The Political Economy April 13, 1983: Dr. Heinz D. Gregor, West of Tropical Deforestation," presented to the German Federal Environmental Agency, dis- Second World Congress on Land Policy, cussion at Acid Rain Panel, Global Tomor- Cambridge., Mass., June 20-24, 1983; FAO row CoalitionConference,Washington, Forest Resources Division, Tropical Forest Re- D.C.. une 2, 1983. sources. 36. Swedish Ministry of Agriculture, Envi- 48. S. L. Pringle, "Tropical Moist Forests ronment '82 Committee, Acidification Today in World Demand, Supply, and Trade." Una- and Tomorrow (Stockholm: 1982). sylva, Nos. 112-113, 1976. 37. FAO, Regional Tables of Production. Trade 49. Myers, Conversion of Tropical Moist For- and Consumption of Forest ProductsWorld, Eco- ests. nomy Classes and Regions: 1970-1980 (Rome: 50, Pringle,"Tropical Moist Forests"; 1982), Alan Grainger, "The State of the World's 38. National Academy of Sciences, Fire- Tropical Forests," The Ecologist, January/ wood Crops: Shrub and Tree Species for Energy February 1980. Production (Washington, D C.: 1980); Fck- 51, FAO YearbooksofForestProducts holm, Planting for the Future. (Rome; 1975 and 1981); FAO, Country Tables of Production, Trade and Consumption of Forest 39, FAO, Forest Resources Division, Forest Products (Rome: 1982). Products Prom 1962-1981, Forestry Paper 38 (Rome: 1982), 52. Pringle, "Tropical Moist Forests." 40. Ibid.; Vandana Shiva, H.C. Sharat- 53. Ledec, "Political Economy of Tropical chandra, and J. Band yopadhyar, Social, Eco- Deforestation"; Indonesian wood processing nomic and Ecological Impact of Social Forestry in plans noted in Unasylva, No, 135, 1982, Kolar (Bangalore: Indian Institute of Man- 54. Ricardo Ortiz, "An Interview with agement, 1981). Marco Antonio Flores Rodas," Assistant Di- 41, FAO Forest Resources Division, Forest rector-General. FAQ Forestry Department, Products Prices, 1962-1981. Ceres, July/August 1981. J. FAQ Forest Resources Division, Tropi- 55. Eckholm. Planting for the Future; Erik cal Forest Resources. Eckholm, I WICEF and the Household Fuels Cri- sis (New York: UNICEF, 1983). 43, Gadgil, Prasad, and Ali, Forest anage- 56. Gadgil, Prasad, and Ali, Forest Manage- mentInIndia ment in India. 44, John Spears, "Preserving Watershed Environments," L'rrasylva, No. 137, 1982. 57. Shiva. Sharatchandra, and Bandyo- padhyay. Social Forestry in Kolar; Vandana 45. NationalEnvironmental Protection Shiva, H. C. Sharatchandra, and J. Ban- Council, Philippine Environmental Quality 1977, dyopadhyay. "Social ForestryNo Solution First Annual Report (Manila: 1977), within the Market," Ecologist, July/August 1982. 46. EarthscanBriefingDocument No. 34A, Earthscan, Washington,D.C., May 58. Shiva, Sharatchandra, and Bandyo- 1983; Catherine Caufield, Tropreai Moist For- padhyay, Social Forestry in Kolar. 237 (322) Notes 59. Prem Shankar jha. "Farm Forestry 71. lbid. Under Attack: Equity Versus Growth."Times 72. "Big Log Sales to China Questionable of India.August 2. 1983. in the Future."Journal of Commerce.June 24. 60. Turi Hammer. "Reforestation and 1983. Community Development in the Sudan." En- ergy in Developing Countries Series. Re- 73. FAO Forest Resources Division.World sources for the Future. Washington. D.C.. Forest Products: Demand and Supply 1990and 2000. September 1982. unpublished. 61. Calestousjuma. "Kenya: The Popula- 74. Noel D. Vietmeyer. "Tropical Tree tion Explodes and Fuelwood Disappears." Legumes: A Front Line Against Deforesta- Unasylva,No. 135. 1982. tion,"Ceres.September/October 1979; Na- tional Research Council. Mangium andOther 62. R. Hosier et al.. "Energy Planning in Acacias of the Humid Tropics(Washington. Developing Countries: Blunt Axe in a Forest D.C.: National Academy Press, 1983); Na- of Problems?."Alibi°.Vol, Xl, No. 4. 1982; tional Research Council.Calliandra: A Versa- Bina Aganval. "Diffusion of Rural Innova- tileSmall Tree for Me Humid Tropics(Washing- tions; Some Analytical Issues and the Case of ton. D.C.: National Academy Press. 1983); Wood-Burning Stoves."World Development. Elbert L. Little. jr.. Common Fuelwood Crops:A April 1983. Handbook for Their Identification(Morgantown. 63. Michael Arnold, "New Approaches to W. Va.: Communi-Tech Associates, un- Tropical Forestry: A Habitat for More than dated). just Trees."Ceres.September/October 1979. 75. Vietmeyer. "Tropical Tree Legumes "; 64. Ibid.; Zerbc et al..Forestry Activitiesin National Research Council, Mangium and Developing Countries. Other Acacias;National Research Council, Cal- /iamb-a; Little,Common Fuetwi d Crops. 65. Spears."SmallFarmers-Orthe Tropical Forest Ecosystem?" 76. Norman Myers. "Stand and Deliver: 66. John Spears. "Preserving Watershed Tropical Moist Forests."IDRC Reports,April Environments,"Unasylva,No. 137. 1982; 1981. Spears. "Small Farmers-Or the Tropical 77. John Spears and Montague Yudelman, Forest Ecosystem?" "Forests ire Development."FinanceandDevel- 67. Roger A. Sedjo "The Potential of US. opment,December 1979; "The FAO Forestry Forestlands in the World Context." prepared Department's Programme of Work and Bud. for Conference on Coping with Pressures on get for 1982-83." Unasylva. No. 135. 1982; U.S. Forestlands. Resources for the Future. Spears, "Small Farmers-Or the Tropical Washington, D.C., March 30-31, 1981. Forest Ecosystem?" 68. FAO Forest Resources Division.Tropi- 78. Ortiz, "Interview with Marco Antonio cal Forest Resources. Flores Rodas." 69. Data for these calculations are from Ibid. and FAO.Regional Tables of Production. Chapter 6. Recycling Materials Tradeand Consumption; the population projec. lion is from Population ReferenceBureau. 1.See John H. Gibbons and William U. 1983 World Population Data Sheet(Washing- Chandler.Energy: The Conservation Revolution ton. D.C.: 1983). (New York: Plenum Publishing Company. 1981). 70. FAO. Forest Resources Division,World Forest Products: DemandandSupply 1990 and 2. The analogy of the beverage container 2000, Foresty Paper 29 (Rome: 1982). was first suggested by energy educator John

238 Notes (223 )

Yegge,, formerly of Oak Ridge Assouated 13. Lester R. Brown,Building A Sustainable Universities, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Sorry(New York. W.W. Norton & Co., 3. William E. Franklin, Marjorie Franklin, 1981). and Robert Hunt,Waste Paper The Future of a 14. Organisation for Economic Co-opera- Resource(New York: Franklin Associates and tion and Development (OECD), Economy In- the American Paper institute, 1982). strumentsinSolid Waste Management(Paris: 4. Some controversy exists regarding the 1981). carcinogenicity of benzopyrene. 15. The Clean Japan Center,Saikurts No (Tokyo: 1983). 5. Derived from R.C. Ziegler et al., "Envi- Chuhiki ronmental Impacts of Virgin and Recycled 16. OECD,Economic InstrumentsinSolid Steel and Aluminum," National Technical Waste Management. Information Service, Springfield, Va.. 1976. 17. Clean Japan Center,Saskurts NoCM- 6. U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, shiki. Wood Use. t' S Competitiveness and Technology 18. Geoffrey Murray, "Putting 220 tons of (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin- garbage a day where ii belongs," Christian ting Office, 198$). Science Monitor,March 10, 198$. 7. See "Wood and Plant Materials,"So- 19. OECD,Waste Paper Recovery(Paris: me,February 21, 1976, National Academy of 1979). Sciences,Renewable Resources forIrsditstral Materials(Washington, D.C.: 1976), Edgar 20. OECD,Economic InstrumentsinSolid Gaertner, "La Mom de la Foret,"Le Monde WasteManagement. Dtplomatique.August 1983, and Chapter 5 of 21. Janet Marinelli, "Recycling's Little this report. Victories,"Environmental Action,April 1982; 8. Marion Clawson, The Economicsof U.S. Richard Hertzberg, "Islip, New York: Where NonindustrialPrivateForests(Washington, Mandatory Recycling Works,"Resource Recy- D.C.: Resources for the Future. 1979). cling(Portland, Ore.), May/June, 1983; Eliza- beth Gallagher, Assistant to the Commis- 9. Thomas E. Ricks, "Timber Firms Mov- sioner of Environmental Control, Islip, New ing to the South As Supplies in Northwest York, private communication, August 12, Diminish,"Wall Street Journal,August 19, 1983. 198$. 22. Richard Hertzberg, "NA RI's Look at 10. Franklin, Franklin, and Hunt,Waste State and Local Recycling Laws,"Resource Re- Paper. The Future of a Resource cycling(Portland, Ore.), November/Decem 11. J. Rodney Edwards. American Paper ber 1982; OECD,Economic Instruments in Solid Institute, New York, private communica- Waste Management;"W. Germany's waste ex- tions, June 1983: Hershel Cutler, executive change expands to nearby countries,"World director. Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, EnvironmentReport, January 30, 1982. Washington, D.C., private communication, 23. Secretariat, FAO Advisory Commit- July 1983. tee, "Waste Paper Data"; Franklin, Franklin, 12. United Nations Food and Agriculture and Hunt,Waste Paper: The Future of a Resource. Organization (FAO), Secretarial, Advisory The value of waste paper trade is estimated Committee on Pulp and Paper, "Waste Paper by using actual unpublished American Paper Data 1978-80," prepared for 22nd session of Institute data for U.S. exports and assuming Advisory Committee, Rome, May 25-27, that 90 percent of gross world trade in waste 1981. paper is American. 239

t ( 224 ) Notes 24. Frankhn, Franklin, and Hunt. Waste 37. Aluminum Association. Aluminum &a- Paper:The Future ofaResource. moralReview for 1981. 25.See Ibid. 38. Brown.Building A Sustainable Society. 26. Franklin. Franklin, and Hunt,Waste 39. Bureau of Mines.Minerals Yearbook, Paper:The Future of a Resource. 1981, Volume III. 27. John M. Bradley. "Cairo's Garbage 40. David Solomon. "Dam blocked in Collectors Get Big World Bank Loan."World Australia's hottest environmental dispute." Environment Report,September 30,1982; Christian Science Monitor,July 6, 1983. World Bank. press release. Washington, D.C.. May 22, 1980. 41. Al Trumer,, "Italy Set To Abandon Its Aluminum Industry,"Journal of Commerce, 28. Representative Ron Wyden (D-Ore- July 21.1982; "Italian Ministry Grants Aid to gon). "Use of Recovered Materials By Fed- Aluminum Industry." journalof Commerce.Au- eral Agencies," fact sheet, Washington, D.C., gust 6. 1982. May 10, 1983, describing H.R. 2867, amend- ing the Resource Conservation and Recovery 42. Aluminum Association,Aluminum&a- Act of 1976. 90 STAT. 2795; Daniel Saltz- moralReview for 1981;Bureau of Mines,Min- man. Legislative Assistant to Representative erals Yearbook, 1981,, Volume III. Wyden, Washington. D.C.. private communi- 43. Bureau of Mines,Minerals Yearbook, cation. August 12. 1983; Marinelli. "Recy- 1981. Volume III. cling's Little Victories." 44. Aluminum Association, AluminumSta- 29. :.dwards. private communications. tistical Review for 1981;Bureau of Mines.Min- 30. Mary Lou Van Deventer. "Whatever erals Yearbook, 1981, Volume 111.The figure of Happened To Recycling?,"Not Man Apart. 360 was the price of "old cast scrap" in April January 1983. 1983. This price is down from 430 in June of 1979. Organisation of European Aluminum 31. U.S. Office of Technology Assess- Smelters.Aluminum Smelters: EuroPe, Japan, ment. Industrial EnergyCse(Washington, USA(London: 1983). D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice. 1983). 45. Aluminum Association.Aluminum &a- toned Review for 1981. 32. Celso Furtado, "Dette exterieure: quel type de renegotiation ?,"Le Monde Diploma- 46. Organisation of European Aluminum ague,August 1983. Smelters. AluminumSmelters. 33. The Aluminum Association, Inc., Mu- 47. Aluminum Association. AmmonSta- llin=Statistical Review for 1981(Washington. tistical Review for 1981. D.C.: 1982). 48. "Reverse Vending Machines,"Resource 34. See William U. Chandler.The Myth of Recycling (Portland.Ore.),November/ TVA; Conservation and Development in the Tennes- December 1982; "Aluminum Recovery? Can seeValley,1933-1983(Cambridge, Mass.: Dol."Sweden Now,February 1982. Ballinger Publishing Co.. 1984). 49. "Community Recycling Update."Re- 35. Aluminum Association.Aluminum Sta- source Recycling(Portland. Ore.), November/ tistical Review for 1981. December 1982. 36. Ibid.; Bureau of Mines, U.S. Depart- 50. William K. Shireman et al.,Can and ment of Interior.Minerals Yearbook, 1981, Vol- Bottle B .s: The CalPIRG-ELS StudyGroupRe- ume 1(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government port(Stanford. Calif.: California Public Inter- Printing Office, 1982). est Research Group and the Stanford Envi-

2 4 0 Setts (225 ) ronmental Law Society. 1981); U.S. General 60. U.S. Office of Technology Assess- Accounting Office, "Statcs Expenerice with ment.Technology and Steel lndtaby Competitive- Beverage Container Deposit Laws Shows ness(Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Positive Benefits." Washington. D.C., De- Printing Office, 1980). cember I I, 1980. 61. "Zinc Die Cast-Autos Are Using 51. "Is Recycling the Tin Can a Can of Less, But Shredders Are Recovering More," Worms?...Phoenix Quarterly,Spring 1977. Phoenix Quarterly.Winter 1983; Leslie R. 52, Suggested by Frank X. McCawley, Parkes, "Metals Face an Uncertain Future." physical scientist, Division of Nonferrous SewScientistJuly 14, 1983; Cutler. private communication. August 11, 1983. Metals. Bureau of Mines. U.S. Department of Interior. Washington. D.C., private commu- 62. C.L. Astedt, 'The Recovery of Car nication. July 14. 1983. Hulks in Sweden." in OECD.Economic instru- 53. This was the central purpose of the mentsinSolid Waste Management; J.Thompson. "World Aluminum Industry Study." accord- "The Recovery of Car Hulks in Norway," in ing to Alfredo Damniert. a principal re- OECD.Economic instruments in Solid Waste Management searcher on the project. World Bank, Wash- ington. D.C.. pnvate communication. August 63. Thompson. "Recovery of Car Hulks in 1 1, 1983. Norway"; Astedt. "Recovery of Car Hulks in Sweden." 54. Derived from Bureau of Mines. Miner- air Yearbook, 1981, Volume 111. 64. William T. Hogan. WorldSteel in She 55. Thisfigure represents automotive 1980s: A Cost of Survival(Lexington. Mass.: scrap as a percentage of an iron and steel Lexington Books. 1983). products scrapped (that is, "becoming ob- solescent") in the United States in the period Chapter 7. Reassessing the Economics of a year. according to an estimate for 1974 of Nuclear Power in U.S. Office of Technology Assessment. Teehmeal Options for Conservation of Metals. Case 1. International Energy Agency.World En- Studies of Selected Metals and Products(Washing- ergy Outlook(Paris: Organisation for Eco- ton. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. nomicCo-operationandDevelopment. 1979). 1982). 36. "Near-Record 21 Million Tons of Fer- 2. International Atomic Energy Agency. rous Discards Added to Scrap Backlog. in the Annual Report for1982 (Vienna: 1983). 1981,"Phoenix Quarterly,Winter 1983; Denis 3. "Nuclear: WorldStatus,"Financial Hayes,Repairs. Raise. Recycling-First Steps To- Times Energy Economist.January 1983. ward a Siutairiable Society(Washington. D.C.: Worldwatch institute, September 1978). 4. Peter deLeon,Development and Diffusion of the Nuclear Power Reactor: A Comparative Anal- .57. LeslieWayne. "The Going Gets (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Tough at the Nucor !Minimal,"New Fork Ws Co.. 1979); Arnold Kramish,Atomic Energy in Times. August 7, 1983. the Sovietrnton (Stanford. Calif.: Stanford 58. Donald Barnett. World Bank. private University Press. 1959). communication. July 14, 1983; Bureau of 5. R. L Perry etal., Development and Com- Mines,Mintrais rearbook, 1981. Volume 111. mercialization of the Light Miter Reactor. 1946- 59. Bureau of Mines.Minerals Yearbook, 1976(Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corpora- 1981, Volume 1. tion, 1977).

241 (226) Notts 6. Atomic Industrial Forum, "Historical Analysis of 1978-1981(Brighton, England: Profile of U.S. Nuclear Power Development." Science Policy Research Unit. University of Washington.D.C..March 1983. Sussex. 1983). 7. Irvin C. Bupp and Jean-Claude Dei ian. 17. These figures are Worldwatch Insti- Light Water Now the Nuclear Dream Dissolved tute estimates based on the construction cost (New York: Basic Books Inc.. 1978). figures described earlier and on operation- and-maintenance and capacitrfactor figures 8. James Everett Katz and Onkar S. Mar- compiledbyEnergySystemsResearch wah. eds..Nuclear Power in Developing Countries Group and Komanoff Energy Associates. Oil (Lexington. Mass.: Lexington Books. 1982). prices are assumed to rise at a 3.5 percent 9. Atomic Industrial Forum, "Interna- annisal real rate beginning in 1986 and to hit tional Survey-Annual," Washington, D.C., 850 per barrel (1983 dollars) by the year various years. 2000. Coal prices are assumed to rise at a 2 10. Quotedin Bupp and Derian. Light percent annual real rate. Generating cost Water figures are levelized costs over the lifetime of a power plant. 11. Atomic Industrial Forum, "Historical Profile." 18. Figure based on a nuclear generating cost of 11 0 per kilowatt-hour that, with trans- 12. Charles Komanoff,Power Plant Cost Es- mission and distribution costs and line calation Neickar and Coal Capital Costs, Regula- losses. comes to a delivered price of 14.30 tion and Economics(New York: Komanoff En- per kilowatt-hour. This compares with a ergy Associates. 1981). U.S. average retail electricity price in 1983 13. Ramesh N. Budwani, "Power Plant of 6.10 per kilowatt-hour, according to U.S. Scheduling, Construction and Costs: 10-Year Department of Energy (DOE). Energy In- formation Administration (EIA), Monthly Analysis."PowerEngineering. Augusi 1982: En- Charles Komanoff, private communication. ergy Review.,Washington, D.C.. September New York, N.Y.. September 19,1983. These 1983. figures were confirmed by Richard Rosen 19. S. David Freeman. "Nuclear Power using the data base of the Energy Systems Isn't Scary-These Reactors Are."Washing- Research Group. Boston. private communi- ton Post.November 28. 1982. cation. September 27, 1983. 20. Central Electricity Generating Board.

14. Cost figures for individual plants were The Case for the Sitwell13Nuclear Power Station compiled from press reports and personal (London: 1982); "British PWR Can Cut communications with utilities by Worldwatch Costs," Nuclear Engineering international.June Institute and are current as of late 1983. All 1982. cost figures are in current dollars unless oth- 21. Gordon Mackerron. "Nuclear Power erwise indicated. and the Economic Interests of Consumers," 15. Richard A. Rosen, "Testimony Before Electricity Consumers' Council. London. the Indiana Public Service Commission," Oc- June 1982; Gordon Mackerron. "A Case Not tober 4. 1982. based on Energy Systems Re- Proven."NewScientist. January 13. 1983. starch Group statistical data. 22. J.W. Jeffery. "The Real Cost of Nu- 16. R. G. Easterling.Statistical Analysis of clear Electricity in the U.K.." EnergyPolicy. Power Plant Capacity Factors Through 1979 June 1982; J.W. Jeffery. 'An Economic Cri- (Washington. D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory tique of the CEGB's Statement of Case for a Commission, 1981): Steve Thomas. World- PWR at Sizewell," University of London. un- wideNuctearPlant Performance Revisited: An published. June 1983.

242 Sates (227) 23. Gunter Marquis, "Experience with 29. Atomic Industrial Forum, Washing- Nuclear Power Plant Investment Costs in the ton, D.C., private communication, November Federal Republic of Germany and Expected 14, 1983, Future Electricity Production Costs." pre- SO. DOE.Nuclear Plans Cancellations: Causes. sented to the International Conference on Costs, and Consequences( Washington, D.C.: Nuclear Power Experience, Vienna. Septeni. 1983). ber 13-17., 1982. 31. DOE, EIA,Monthly Energy Review: 24. Jurgen Franke and Dieter Vielhues. "33rd Annual Electrical Industry Forecast," Das Erode Des Dagen eitontsiroms(Koln. West Eleancal World.September 1982. Germany: Institut Freiburg, 1983). 32. "1983 Annual StatisticalReport," 25, LeonardL.Bennett. PanosM. Electrical World,March 1983; additional data Karousakis, and Georges Moynet, "Review of are from unpublished documents of the Edi- Nuclear Power Costs," presented to the In- son Electric Institute and the American Pub- ternational Conference on Nuclear Power lic Power Association; these numbers were Experience,Vienna,September13-17. compared with capital expenditure figures in 1982; Charles Komanoli. "Nuclear Power U.S. Bureau of the Census,Annual Survey of Costs: American Answers, French Ques- Manufacturers(Washington, D.C.: 1983). tions," Kornanoli Energy Associates, New York. N.Y., 1981; "Even with Increased 33, U. Nesse, "The Effect of Nuclear Ownership on Utility Bond Ratings and Costs, EDF Finds Nuclear Far Cheaper than Yields," Battelle Pacific Northwest Labora- Coal."NuckomesWeek, January 27., 1983. tory, Richland. Wash., February 1982; Leon- 26. "Electricite de France Spent 9.768i1, ard Hyman. "Utility Industry: Congressional lion Francs in 1981,"Nuckorius Week,Febru- Hearings on Nuclear Energy." Merrill Lynch, ary 25. 1982; "EDF Reschedules Debt.''Euro- Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc.. New York, Oc- peon Energy Report,January 21, 1983, tober 26. 1981. 27. Japanese figures are unpublished esti- 34. "Midland Deal Comes Unglued,"En- mates from Central Research Institute of ergyDaily. July 19, 1983. Electric Power industry.,Tokyo, private com- 35. Stuart Diamond, "Shoreham: What munication. August 9, 1983. and an interview Went Wrong?."Newsday,December 6. 1981: with the executive vice-president of Tokyo Ron Winslow, "Lilco's Bid to Spread Nuclear Electric Power Company,Astaweek,August Costs Riles Customers and State Officials." 12, 1983: Soviet figure is from "Comecon Wall StreetJournal, September 1, 1983. Presses Forward While the West Hesitates," Financial Tunes Energy Economist,August 1983: 36. "Economic Factors Engulf Seabrook," A. M. Yu and D. L S. Bate, "'Trends in the Sew YorkTimes,September 12, 1983. Capital Costs of CANDU Generating Sta- 37. Atomic Industrial Forum. "A.I.F,'s tions." presented to the International Con- 1982 Midyear Outlook."pressrelease. ference on Nuclear Power Experience, Washington. D.C.,July 1982; DOE, U.S. Com- Vienna. September 13-17, 1982; Ontario mercialNuckar Power: Historical Perspective,Cur- Hydro, Cost Comparisonof CA.VDV Nuclear rent Status andOutlook(Washington. D.C.: & Coal Fueled Generating Stations(Toronto: 1982). 1982);Indiandataare from Bennett. 38. William Drozdiak, "Greens' Power: Karousakis. and Moynet.,"Review of Nuclear West German Party Forces Nuclear Issue," Power Costs." Washington Post,February 19, 1983; John Ta- 28. Atomic Industrial Forum, "Historical gliabue, "West Germans Clash At Site of A- Profile." Plant." New YorkTunes.March 1, 1981.

243 (228) ,Votes 39. William Walker and Mans Lonnroth, 45. "Nuclear: World Status," Financial Nuclear Power Struggles: Industrial Competition Times. and Proliferation Control (London: George 46. "Comecon Nuclear Industry Set for Allen & Unwin, 1983). Rapid Expansion," European Energy Report, 40. "West Germany: Can a Nuclear 'Con- July 8, 1983; Peter Holt. "Nuclear Power in voy' Run Over Its Opposition?," Business Eastern Europe: Progress & Problems." En- Week, August 9, 1982; information on con- ergy in Countnes with Planned Economies, De- cern within the West German utility industry cember 1981; Tom Sealy. "Comecon Presses is from Florentin Krause. Friends of the Forward," Financial Times Energy Economist, Earth, San Francisco, Calif., private commu- August 1983. nication. September 28, 1983. 47. Sealy, "Comecon Presses Forward." 41. "World List of Nuclear Power Plants." Nuclear News, biannual, various dates; Inter- 48. "Problems Hit U.SS.R. Nuclear Con. national Atomic Energy Agency. Annual Re- struction Industry." European Energy Report, port: Irvin C. Bum "The French Nuclear August 5. 1983; Mark Wood. "Reactor Plant Harvest: Abundant Energy or Bitter Har- Mishap Hinted as by Soviets," 1Vashington vest?... Technology Review, November/Decem- Post, July 21, 1983. ber1980; Mitterand quote from Judith Miller, "Paris Pushes Drive for Atomic En- 49. John W. Powell, "Nuclear Power in ergy: Socialist Government Has Only Slightly Japan," bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May Changed Program Undertaken by Giscard." 1983; "Nuclear Power: What Role in Asia?," New York Times, March 14. 1982. Asiaweek, August 12, 1983. 42. "French Energy: Forecasts Fall." Na- 50. "A Nuclear Power Plant in Japan me, November 1 1. 1982; "Study Group's Springs a Radioactive Leak," World business Call for French Nuclear Retrenchment Sends Weekly, May 11. 1981; Henry Scott Stokes, Shock Waves," NucleonicsWeek, May 19. "For Japan. Sudden Nuclear Misgivings," 1983; "Nuclear Power: Cooling Off," The New York Times, May 17, 1981. Economist. July 30. 1983; "French Planners 51. Powell, "Nuclear Power in Japan." Accused of Cheating." European Energy Re- port. September 30. 1983; "EDF Seeking 52. International Atomic Energy Agency, Maximum Flexibility in Operation of Its Nu- Market Survey for Nuclear Power in Developing clear Units," Nucleonics lVeek, February 17.. Countries: General Report (Vienna: 1973), 1983 53. "World List of Nuclear Power Plants," 43.t'..DF Reschedules Debt," European Nuclear News, August 1983; Jane House. Energy Report, January 21. 1983; "Study "The Third World Goes Nuclear," South, De- Group's Call for French Nuclear Retrench- cember 1980. ment Sends Shock Waves" Nucleonics lVeek; "France Eases Up on Pace of N.Power," 54. Richard J. Barber Associates, LDC Nu- European Energy Report,August 5,1983; clear Power Prospects, 1975-1990: Commercial, "Framatome isBracing for Employment Economic & Security implications (Washington. Problems Beginning in Mid-1984," Nucleonics D.C.: U.S. Energy Research and Develop- Week, November 4, 1983. ment Administration, 1975). 44. Andrew Holmes, "Sizewell Inquiry 55. John J.Metzler, "Taiwan Extends Reveals U.K. Policy Vacuum." Financial Times Quest for Nuclear Power," Journal of Gom- Energy Economist, October 1983: Czech Con- mercr. March 8. 1982; "KEPCO Shelving roy, "Why Britain Does Not Need a PWR," Construction of Nos. 11. 12 Nuclear Power New Scientist. August 19. 1982. Plants," Korea Herald, July 17, 1982. 244 Notes (229) 56. S. Jacob Scheer. "Nuclear Power in the 65. Solar Energy Research Institute. A Philippines." in Katz and Marwah. Nuclear New Prosperity: Building a Renewable Future (An- Power in Developing Countries: Christopher S. dover. Mass.: Brick House. 1981). Wren. "China Is Building Atom Power 66. Douglas Cogan, Generating Energy Alter- Plana." New York Timm September 30. 1982. natives At America's Electric Vtilities (Washing- 57. R. R. Subramanian and C. Rap ton. D.C.: Investor Responsibility Research Mohan, "Nuclear Power in India." in Kaiz Center Inc.. 1983). and Marwah. Nuclear Power in Developing Coun- 67. Jordan quote is from Ibid.: electricity tries: Trevor Drieberg. "India's Nuclear Pro- trendsarefromInternationalEnergy gram Encountering Difficulties." Journal of Agency, World Energy Outlook, and reports in Commerce. November 4. 1982. various newsletters. 58. Katz and Marwah. Nuclear Power in De- 68. Renewable energy cost figures are veloping Countries; House., "The Third World Worldwatch Institute estimates based on var- ;oes Nuclear": Eliot Marshall. "Iraqi Nu- ious sources: see Daniel Deudney and Chris- clear Program Halted by Bombing," Science. iopher Flavin. Renewable Energy: The Power to October 31, 1981; Muriel Allen. "Egypt Re- Choose (New York; W.W. Norton & Co., thinking Plans for Reactors Due to Safety 1983). Fears." Journal of Commerce. May 5. 1981. 59. Jackson Diehl. "Ambitious Argentine Nuclear Development Program Hits Snags." Chapter 8. Developing Renewable En- Washington Post. August 31. 1982. ergy 60. Victoria Johnson. "Nuclear Power in 1. International Energy Agency. Energy Re- Brazil," in Kaiz and Marwah, Nuclear Power in search. Development and Demonstration in the 1E4 Developing Countries; Richard House. "Brazil: Countries, 1981 Review of National Programmes Nuclear Road to the Future Takes a Turn for (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-opera- the Worse." Financial Times Energy Economist. tion and Development. 1982). May 1983; "Mexico Having Difficulty Com- 2. For a detailcd view of wind power depleting Even One Nuclear Unit." Nucleonics velopments in recent years. see Christopher Week, June 23. 1983. Flavin. Wind Power: A Turning Point (Washing- 61. Estimate based on nuclear plants ton, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, July 1951). under construction and operating in mid- 3. Carl Aspliden. U.S. Department of En- 1983. as listed in "World List," Nuclear News ergy (DOE). private communication, une 4. 62. Atomic Industrial Forum, annual press 1981. releases on international outlook. Washing- 4. Grant Miller, "Assessment of Large ton. D.C.. various years; Nuclear Energy Scale Windmill Technology and Prospects Agency. Nuclear Energy and Its Fuel Cycle for Commercial Application." working paper (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-opera- submitted to National Science Foundation. tion and Development. 1982). Washington. D.C., unpublished. September 8. 1980. 63. Ronnie D. Lipschutz. Radioactive Waste. Politics.Technology and Risk(Cambridge. 5. Elizabeth Baccelli and Karen Gordon. Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Co.. 1980); Sally Electric Odd" Solar Energy Activities: 1981 Sur- Hindman. Decommissioning Policies for Nuclear vey (Palo Alto. Calif.: Electric Power Re- Power Plants: A Critical Examination (Washing- search Institute. 1982). ton. D.C.: Critical Mass. forthcoming). 6. American Wind Energy Association. 64. DOE. EIA. Monthly Energy Review. "AWEA Listingof Publicly Announced

245 (230) Notes

Windfarm Projects," Arlington, Va., unpub- and Energy Policy in Sweden," The Swedish lished, August 1983. Institute, Stockholm, January 1980. 7. Donald Marier, "Wind Farms Boom or 16, Vera Rich. "Finland Turns to Wood Bust,"Alternative Sources of Energy,May/June and Peat for Energy," Nature, April 5, 1979. 1983; David Hoffman. "Windfarm Giant 17. H. Swain, R. Overend, and T.A. Led- Planning Even Greater Expansion," Renew. well, "Canadian Renewable Energy Pros- able Energy News,February 1983. pects,"Solar Energy,Vol. 23, 1979, pp. 459- 8. Vaughn Nelson, "State of the SWECS 700; Chris Wood, "Canada's Fuelwood: Out Industry in the United States,"Wind Power of the Bush and Onto the Grate,"Wood'n Digest.forthcoming, 1984; David Hoffman. Energy,January 1981; Brian Toiler, "Ot- "Dutch and Danish Turbines Make Inroads tawa's FIRE Program Expanded, Budget in U.S.."Renewable Energy News,April 1983. Near Tripled to 8288 Million." and "ENFOR 9. Interviews by Christopher Flavin with Research Moving Beyond Inventory Phase," April 1981. various California wind farm developers, pri- Canadian Renewable Energy News, vate communications, September 1983. 18. DOE,Estimates of Wood Energy Consump- 10. Robert Lowe. "Expected Electricity tion. Costs for the U.S. Mod-2 Windmill,"Energy 19. Boor. Allen & Hamilton, Inc., "Assess- Polity,December 1980. ment of Proposed Federal Tax Credits for II. For the details of these calculations Residential Wood Burning Equipment," Be- thesda, Md., August 1979; Housing Industry see Flavin,Wind Power: ATurningPoint. Dynamics, Crofton, Md., private communica- 12. "Dreams Blow Away in the Breeze," tion, August 8, 1983. Washington Post,August 15,1983; Glen Price, 20. Based on 17.2 million Btus per dry ton Farallones Institute, Occidental, Calif., pri- of wood and 5.8 million Btus per barrel of vate communication. September 8, 1983. fuel oil; assumes oil heating is 65 percent 13. "Dutch to Build 10MW Windfarm." efficient and wood heating is 45 percent effi- World SolarMar/lets, March 1982; Bent Sor- cient. DOE,Estimates of Wood Energy Consump- ensen. "Turning to the Wind," American SU-, tion. entist. September/October 1981; Judy Red- 21. Data on wood consumption are from rearm "The ProspectforOcean-Going DOE,Estimates of Wood Energy Consumption; Windmills,"Nature,April 24, 1980. data on oil use are from DOE,State Energy 14. K. Dharmarajan, "IndiaEnergy Sup- Data Report 1960 through 1981(Washington, ply Policy Management,"Natural Resources D.C.:U.S. Government Printing Office, Forum, July 1983; DOE,Estimates of l',S. Wood1983); Mark R. Bailey and Paul R. Wheeling, Energy Consumption from 1949 to 1981(Wash- Wood and Energyin Vermont (Washington, ington, D.C.:U.S. Government Printing D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Eco- Office, 1982), nomic Research Service, 1983). 15. Thomas B. Johansson et al.. "Sweden 22. Alberto Goetzl and Susan Tatum, Beyond Oil: The EfficientJse of Energy," "Wood Energy Use in the Lumber and Wood Science,January 28. 1983; "The Cold. Hard Products Industry,"Forest Products Journal. Facts," Sweden Now, No. 4, 1981; Steven March 1983. and private communication, Moore, "Sweden Readies Forests in Rapid September 1, 1983; Valerie Dow, "Wood Conversion to Bio-Energy," and "Pulp and Electrics--For U.S. Utilities, It's Wait and Paper Lead Swedish Switch to Wood Fuel," See,"Canadian Renewable Energy News,April Renewable Energy News,April 1982; "Energy 1981; Swedish and Canadian data are from 246 Notes (231)

Patricia Adams, "Wood Energy. Rekindling Wall Street Journal, October 4, 1983:, Charles An Old Flame." Energy Probe, Toronto, F.. Hewett and Williani T. Glidden,Jr., Market Canada, March 1981. Pressures to ('se Wood as an Energy Source: Current Trends and a Financia! Assessment (Hanover, 23. R. Davidson, Employee Services Man- ager, Proctor and Gamble, Staten island. N.H.: Resource Policy Center, Dartmouth College, 1982); Canadian Renewable Energy N.Y.. private communication. September 8, 1983; Phillip G. Sworden, Supervisor, Natu- News, December 1980; Office of Technolog ral Resources Department, Dow Corning Assessment, Wood ('se;Sworden, private Corporation, Midland, Mich., private com- communication. munication, August 19, 1983. 29. Average thermal gradient is from Don- 24. Bonneville Power Administration, Bio- ald White, "Characteristics of Geothermal Energy Bulletin (Portland, Ore.), December Resources," in Paul Kruger and Card Otte, 1982; Tim Cronin, Director of Public 'ffairs, eds., Geothermal Energy (Stanford, Calif.: Stan- Burlington Electric Department, Burlington, ford University Press, 1973); maximum tem- Vi.,private communication, August19, perature gradient is from Vase! Roberts, 1983; Robert P. kennel, Vice President for Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, nevelopment, Ultras) stems, Inc., Arlington, Calif.,private communication. April26, Va., private communication, September 7, 1982; the world's geothermal zones are de- 1983. scribed in Erika Laszlo, "Geothe. mai Energy: An Old Ally." /link), Vol. X, No. 5, 1981. 25. Ernesto Terrado, Biomass Speciali.L. 14 orld Rani. Washington, DC, private com- 30. Estimate of current geothermal energy munication, August 17, 1983; Frank H. Den- use is derived from Ronald DiPippo, "Geo- ton. Coosultain. "The Twentieth Century thermal Power Plants: Worldwide Survey of Revolution? Energy from Tree Farms," Phil- July 1981," presented to the Geothermal Re- ippine National Electrification Administra- sources Council Fifth Annual Meeting. Hous- tion. Manila, unpublished, 1982; Ministry of ton, Tx., October 25-29. 1981, and Ronald Energy, "Ten-Year Energy Program 1980- DiPippo, Southeastern Massachusetts Uni- 1989," Manila, Philippines. 1980. versity, private communication, September 1983; "Report of the Technical Panel on 26. Jourdan Houston. "Pelletized Fuels: GeothermalEnergy,"preparedforthe The Emerging Industry," Wood n' Energy. United Nations Conference on New and Re- January 1981; John I. Zerbe, "The Many newable Sort Ts of Energy. Nairobi, Kenya, Forms of Wood as Fuel," American Forests. August 10-21. 1981; Jon Steinar Gudmunds- Octoher 1978. son, Department of Petroleum Engineering, 27. U.S. Office of Technology Assess- Stanford University, private communication. ment, Wood Cse: ('.S Competitiveness and Tech- November 24,, 1981; William W. Eaton, Geo- nology (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government thermal Energy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. En- Printing Office, 1983); Colin High. "New En- ergy Research and Development Administra- gland Returns to Wood," Xatural Histoty, tion, 1975). February 1980; Sworden, private communi 31. Paul J. Leinau and John W. Lund, cation; U.S. Office of Technology Assess- "Utilization and Economics of Geothermal mew, Energy From Biological Processt, rd. , ", S. c) eating in Klamath Falls. Oregon." Technwal and Environmental Analyses 'Washing (kip H it Utilization Center., Oregon Insti- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, .^1 feehnology. Klamath Falls, Ore-, un- 1980). p....iished, fated; the life-cycle cost analy- 28. Eugene Carlson, "Smoke From Wood sisis from John W. Lund. "Geothermal Becomes Big Polluter in Northern U,S.," Energy UGlization for the Homeowner,"

24 7 (232) Notes Gets-Heat Utilization Center. Oregon Insti- parry. "The Ge .- Power Plant Develop- tute of Technology. Klamath Falls. Ore., un- ment." San Francisco. unpublished, March published. December 1978. 26.1982, and private communications, Octo- 32. "Basic Statistics of Iceland." Ministry ber 1983. of Foreign ANairs, Iceland, April 1981; Jon 36. DiPippo. Geothermal Energy as n Source of Steinar Gudmundsson and iludmondur Pal- Elettnoty. mason. "World Survey of Low-Temperature 37. Information on the prospects for dou- Geothermal Energy Utilization," prepared ble flash plants is from David Anderson. Geo- for the United Nations Conference on New thermal Resources Council. Davis, Calif.. pri- and Renewable Sources of Energy. Nairobi. vate communication, June 18. 1982; the Kenya, August 10- 21,198 .; comparison with binary plant design is discussed in DiPippo. oil costs is from "Hilaveita Reykjaviktir " a Geothermal Energy as a Source of Electricity, and government pamphlet desershing Iceland's in U.S. General Accounting Office. Elimina- district heat programs. Reykjavik. Iceland. tion of Federal Funds for the Ileber Project Will undated. Impede Full Development and Cm of Hydrothermal 33. Description of baths in Japan is from Resources {Washington. D.C.: 1982). John W. Lund, "Direct Utilizationthe In- 38. Hydrogen sulfide emissions and con- ternational Scene." Geo-HeatUtilization trol information are described in DiPippo. Center. Oregon Institute of Technology. Geothermal Energy as a Source of Eltancity, and Klamath Falls, Ore.. unpublished. undated; in J. Laszlo, "Application of the Stretford estimates of energy saved by Japanese baths Process for HiS Abatement at The Geysers." and geothermal applications in Thailand and Pacific Gas & Electric Company. San Fran- Mexico is front Gudmundsson and Palmason. cisco. unpublished. 1976; contamination of "World Survey"; information on geothermal surface water supplies is discussed in Di- use in Guatemala is from Kathleen Courrier, Pippo. Geothermal Energy as a Source of Eltanc- Center for Renewable Resources. Washing- ton, D.C., private communication. March rty 1983; greenhouse applications are described 39. For an example of a national resource in Lund, "Direct Utilization," and in Cud- assessment. see L.J. P. Muffler, Assessment of Inundsson and Palmason, "World Survey." Geothermal Resources of the Crafted StatesI9i8 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Geological Survey., 34. Industrial uses in Iceland and New 1979). Zealand are described in Paul J. Lineal. "Geothermal Resource Utilization," pre 40. The legal status of geothermal energy seated to American Association for the Ad- is discussed in "Report of the Technical vancement of Science AnnualMeeting, Panel on Geothermal Energy." Nairobi Con- Washington. D.C.. January 3-8. 1980 the ference. and in Kenneth A. Wonstolen, onion dehydration project is described in Joe "Geothermal Energy: Basic Legal Parame- Glorioso. "Geothermal Moves Off the Back ters," presented to the Geothermal Re- Burner: Part II." Energy Management. Oc- sources Council Fourth Annual Meeting. Salt tober/November 1980. Lake City, Utah. September 8-11, 1980, 35. For a thorough discussion of :he diff- 41. A description of the French program is erent electricity-generating technologies and found in Ministere de l'Industrie du Com- operating experience to dam, see Ronald merce et de l'Artisanat, La Gtothermit en France DiPippo, Geothermal Energy as a Source of Eke- (Paris: 1978); the U.S. program is described tnnty {Washington. D.C.: U.S. Department of in DOE. Division of Geothermal Energy. Enei -qr. 1980); information about The Gey- "Federal CostSharing for Exploration of sers is from the Pacific Gas & Electric Com- Hydrothermal Reservoirs for Direct Appli 248 Notes (233) cations," Washington. D.C.. unpublished, 48. Robert R. Ferber, U.S. Jet Pre. pulsion 1980; information on Iceland's program is Laboratory. Pasadena. Calif.. private com- from Gudmundsson, pris ate communication. munication. November 11, 1982. and Robert April 25. 1982. Johnson. StrategiesUnlimited, Mountain View. Calif.. private communication, Novem- 42, The rate of growth of geothermal generating capacity since the mid-seventies is her 12. 1982, derived from Vasel Roberts, "Geothermal 49. Historical figures are based on Strate- Energy." in Advances in Energy Systems and giesUnlimited.1980-81MarketReview Technology,Vol.1.1978, from DiPippo. (Mountain View, Calif.:1981); the 1983 "Geothermal Power Plants." and from figure is from Maycock, private communica- DiPippo, private communication; projections tion, of future use are based on "Report of the 50 Strategies Unlimited, 1980-81 Market Technical Panel on Geothermal Energy," Review, the 1983 estimate is from Maycock, Nairobi Conferentand on Roberts, "Geo- private. communication. thermal Energy," 51. Efforts to reduce the cost of photovol- 43. France's resource potential and utili. zation goals are from "France and geother- talcs are discussed in Flavin. Electricity from Sunlight. mal power ---a source with enormous potential." Christian Science Monitor, October 1. 52. These figures are Flavin 's estimates 1980; potentials in Canada, China, and the based on private communications with vari- Soviet Union are from Gudmundsson. pn- ous industry analysts. cate communication, November 24, 1981: 53. Steven J. Strong. "Pioneering PV number of hot spots in China isfrom Homes: A Trickle Down or Trickle Up Mar- "China's Growing Geothermal Use," Energy ket?," Photovoltaics The Solar Mean(' Magazine, in Countries with Planned !framing". November June/July 1982; "Residential Retrofits Offer 2, 1979. Enormous Existing Market. New Study De- 44. John W. Shatpe, "Energy Self-Suffi- monstrates," Photovoltaic Insider's Report (Dal- ciency for Hawaii," Seienee. June II, 1982. las. Tex.). May 1982. 45. National plans are from DiPippo, 54. "Major SolarProjects Round the "Geothermal Power Plants." and DiPipPo, World." World Solar Markers. December 1981 private communication: Mexico's plans are "Fre.nel Lens PV Systems Starting Up at dcscrihed in "Report of the Technical Panel Saudi Villages. Phoenix Airport." Solar En- on Geothermal Energy." Nairobi Confer- ergy hilelligenee Report. April 5, 1982. ence: El Salvador figure is from DiPippo. Geo- 55. Descriptions of various projects are thermal Energy as a Source of Eleetnaly from their developers. private conimunica- 46. Worldwatch Institute estimate based lions. September 1983. on shipments of 18,000 kilowatts of cells at a 56. "Japan Earmarks Cash for PV Ven- system cost of approximately 115.000 per tures." World Solar Markets, February 1983., kilowatt. For a more detailed discussion of -Japanese PV Plant Comes on Line." World recent developments in photovoltaics. see Solar Markets. January 1983. Christopher Flavin, Electricity from Sunlight. The Future of Photovoltaies (Washington. D.C.: 57. "Major Solar Projects." World Solar Worldwatch Institute. December 1982). Markets; updates from various trade press re- 47. Paul Maycock, Photovoltaic Energy ports. 1983. Systems Inc., Alexandria. Va., private com- 58. Calestous Juma. "Photovoltaics and munication. November 9. 1983. the Third World: 'reclino-Econotnic Expec-

24 9 (2)4) Notts cations and Po in v Responses," Science Pol- MVMA. WorldMotor Vehicle Data Book, 1982 icy Research Unit. University of Sussex, Edition(Detroit. Mich.: 1932). Brighton. England. unpublished, July 1983, 4. 51VMA,World Motor Vehicle Data Book Thurston,"Heliodinatrica 59. Charles 5.Ih:d. Puts Brazil on Road to Photovoltaic Technol- ogy."Beitewable Energy News.March 198.,. 6. Ibid.; 1983 estintate by Worldwatch In- "Pakistan Gets First of 14 PV Generators." stitute. World Solar Markets.October 1981. 7. U.S. Department of Transportation 60. Officials of Spire Corporation. Bed- (DOT),The U.S. Automobile ,ndiutry. 1981 ford.Mass., and Chronar Corporation, (Washington, D.C.: U S. Government Prin- Princeton. NJ.. private communications. ting Office, 1982). 1983. 8. MVMA,World Motor Vehicle Data Book 61. Description of the French effort is 9. "South Korea: A radical redesign of the from Emile Gouriou. Bureau Yves Houssin, auto industry.'Busineu Week.October 13. Par::,. private communication, September 3, 1980. 1981: information on the U.S. effort is froin 10. See, for example, Richard R. Leger, Louis Rosenhium, Consultant. Ohio, private "Oil -Price Surge Clobbers Less-Developed communication. November 4, 1083. Nations Such as Kenya and Cuts Their Living 62. Bill D'Aiessandro. "Villagers Light the Standards."Wall Street Journal.M'y 30,1979, Way: Solar Cell Power in Gunsight. Ari- and DOT,The t' S Automobile Industry, 1980 zona,"Solar Age,May 1979, "Ambitious 30 (Washington, D.C.: 1981). KW/P PV System to be Completed in Tuni- 11. U S. Department of Commerce.,The sian Village." Insider'sReport(Dal, Photovoltaic U S Automobile Industry. 1982(Washington. las, Tex.). Septetnber 1982. D.C.: 1983). 63. These figures are Worldwatch Insti- 12. DOT.TheU.S.Automobileindustry, tute estimates: for further details see Flavin, 1980 Eltantity front Sunlight 13. DOT,TheU.S. Automobile Industry, 64. Daniel Deudney and Christopher Fla- 1980andThe U.S. Automobile Industry, 1981. vin.Renewable Energy: The Power to Choose (New 'fork: W. W.Norton & Co.. 1983). 14. DOT,Thet'.S.Automobile Industry. 1980.Julius J.Harwood, "Automakers Lighten the Load."Technology Review,July Chapter 9. Reconsidering the Automo- 1981; U.S. Department of Commerce. The bile'sFuture t'S. Automobile Industry, 1982. 1. Robert U. Ayres. for Oak Ridge Na- 15. Mark Potts and Warren Brown. "Auto tionalLaboratory. WorldwideTransporta- Reduction Hits Suppliers."Washington Post, tton/EnergyDemandForecast: 1973-2000 January 9. 1983. (Springfield. Va: National Technical Infor- 16. DOT,TheU.S. Automobile Industry. mation Service,, 1978). 1981. 2. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- 17. Federal HighwayAdministration, tion (MVMA),Mo:or Vehicle Facts and Figures Highway Statutes(Washington, D.C.: annual). '83(Detroit. Mirh.: 1983). 18. Federal HighwayAdministration, 3, Worldwatch Institute estimates of auto- Highway Statistics;MVMA.Motor Vehicle Facts mobile production are based on data from and Figures '83.

1 4 01.1! Soles (235) 19. The Wade weight used here"titer 29. James Bruce, "Brazil's Alcohol Export teal weis;!4"includes the weight of a driver Prospects Shrink But Domestic Mart Conlin. and reel for road testing purposes. Philip Pat. ues Growth,"journal of Commerce,April 5, tenon, Conservation Program, U.S. Depart- 1983. ment of Energy. private communication, Oc 30. 1983 estimate by Worldwatch Insti- tober 12, 1983. tute, based on data from Janet Limey, Eco 20. MVMA,Motor Vehicle PadsanefFigures, nomic Research Service, U.S. Department of Tony Grey, "U.S. two.seater cars may weigh Agriculiirse, private communication, August as little as 1,200 pounds and get 80 miles pa ;5, 1983. gallon."Christian Screw Morisco,October 15, 31. Organisation for Economic Co-opera- 1980. tion and Development,!nterfutures(Paris: 21. DOT,The(*.S.dittomobilt &chatty, 1979); David Bayliss, Transportation and De- 1980 velopment Department, Greater London Council, England, private cc mmunication, 22, John M. Geddes, "German Car Makers September 7, 1983. Set Fuel Cut,"NewFortTones, May1, 1979: Roger Gale. "Japan Gets New Conservation 32. Fora discussion of the assumptions on Law,"The Energy Daily,September 27, 1979; which automobile demand projections are Richard J. Moshe), "Mexico Set to Revamp based, see David Bayliss, "Global Car Own. Troubled Auto Industry,"New l'ork Times, ership in 1990 and 2000 A.D.," presented at Septembm. 15, 1983. the International Policy Forum, liakone, Japan, May 16-20, 1982 (reprinted by the 23. SherwoodL.Fawcett, "The100 Future of the Automobile Program, Massa. M.P.G. Car,"New York Times,November 22, chusettsInstitute of Technolori, Cam- 1981; Repr "sentative Bob Sham an sky, "To bridge, Mass.). Join the Car Race,"NewYorkTimes,February 2, 1982. 33. Peng Feifei, Second Secretary, Em- bassy of the People's Republic of China, pri- 24, "France Launches Thrifty Car."Finan- vate communication, November 9, 1983. cial Times European Energy Report,tune 26, 1981; Rushworth M, Kidder. "Will new, 34. Eliot Janewa), "The Prince of Pessi- 83 m.p.g, car save Britain's king of the mism says the system could topple,"Washing- road?," ChristianSelena Monitor,September ton Post,August 14, 1983 16, 1980, 35. William A. Ormejr., "Mexico Plans to 25. "The tiny cars that women are wild Increase Domestic Fuel Prices," journalof Commerce,October 27, 1983: information on about,"Business Week,February 28. 1983. Brazilisfrom J, C. Barros, Petrobras, New 26. Emil Parente, Fluor Corporation, Ana- York, N.Y., private communication, October heim, Calif., private communication, August 3, 1983. 17, 1983. 36. "Yugoslavia Begins Gasoline Ration. 27. Leonard Lehr. "Canadian Synthetic ing to Counter Shortage." WattStreet Journal, Fuel Project Provides Instructive, and Sober- October 11 1982; "Poles Facing Further ing Lesson for U.S.,"Wall Street journal,De. Cuts In Gasoline,"journal of Commerce, Sep- cember 11, 1979, tember 30, 1983, 28, "Slow growthseenforsynthetic 37, Tom Kennedy, "With so little native fuels,"Or andGas Journal,May 2.1983; "Syn- fuel, Danes stress conservation," Christian thetic fuels bubble set to burst,"NewSnorer, Science Monitor,October 6, 1979; MVMA, December 16, 1982. WealdMotor Vehicle Data Book

251 (236) Notes

38. MVMA. World Motor VehicleData 7. Marshall I. Goldman, The Spoils of Prog- Book. ress (Cambridge, Mass: M.I.T. Press. 1972); 39. Ibid. Dr. John Gribben, "Climatic Impact of Soviet River Diversions," New Scientist. December 6, 40. Ibid. 1979; Grigorii Voropaev and Aleksei Kosa- 41. Dennis R. Gordon, "The Andean Auto re"The Fall and Rise of the Caspian Sea," New Scientist, April 8, 1982. Program and Peruvian Development: A Pre- liminary Assessment," Journal of Developing 8. Arizona Water Commission, Inventory of Areas, January 1982. Resource and (..'ses (Phoenix, Ariz.: 1975). 42. Leger. "Oil-PriceSurge Clobbers 9. Republic of South Africa, Report of the LessDeveloped Nations"; "IMF Study Advo- Science Committee of the President's Council on cates Higher Gasoline Taxes," New York Demographic Trends in South Africa (Capetown: Times, February 24, 1980. The Government Printer, 1983). 10. FAO. FAO 1977 Annual Fertilizer Review (Rome; 1978): Paul Andrilenas, USDA, ERS, Chapter 10. Securing Food Supplies private communication. December 9, 1982. 1. Food production data in this chapter 11. USDA,AgriculturalStatistics 1982 are drawn primarily from US. Department (Washington. D.C. . U.S. Government Prin- of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research ting Office. 1982). Service (ERS). World Indices of Agricultural and 12. USDA. ERS, "Fertilizer Outlook and Food Production. 1950-82 (unpublished Situation," Washington,D.C., December printout) (Washington, D.C.,1983), and 1982. from USDA. Foreign Agricultural Service 13. USDA, Soil and Water Resources Conser- (FAS). Foreign Agriculture Circulars,various vation Act ( RCA), Summary of Appraisal. Parts I commodities. Washington, D.C., published and 1I and Program Report Review Draft 1980 monthly, (Washington, D,C.: 1980). 2. See, for exami..ie, Jay Ross. "Africa: The 14. Economic Report of the Prudent (Wash- Politics of Hunger" (series). Washington Post, ington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing June 25-30, 1983. Office, 1983). 3. Davidson R. Cwatkin. Signs of Change in 15, Ibid. Developing-Comity Mortality Trends: The End of an Era, Development Paper No. 30 (Wash- 16. Lester R. Brown, Man, Land and Food: ington, D.C.: Overseas Development Coun- Looking Ahead at World Food Needs, Foreign Ag- cil, February 1981), riculture Economic Report No. 11 (Washing- ton. D.C.: USDA, ERS, 1963). 4. USDA, ERS, World Indices. 17. USDA, FAS, "Reference Tables on 5. United Nations Food and Agriculture Wheat, Corn and Total Coarse Grains Sup- Organization(FAO),Production Yearbook ply Distribution for Individual Countries," (Rome: annual, various years). Foreign Agriculture Circular FG- 19 -83. Wash- 6. Kenneth B. Young and JerryM. ington, D.C., July 1983. Coomer, Effects of .Vatural Gas Price Increases on 18. Figures on cropland idlediiithe Texas High Plains Irrigation, 1976-2025. Agri- United States are from Randy .Jeber, USDA, cultural Report. No. 448 (Washington, D,C,: Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation USDA, Economics, Statistics, and Coopera- Service, private communication, August 23, tives Service, 1980). 1983,

252 Notes (237) 19. For a discussion ol manipulation of Chapter 11. Reshaping Economic Poli- grain exports for political purposes. see Dan cies Morgan.Merchants ofGram (New York: Pen- guin Books. 1980). 1. Data Resources Incorporated projection cited by Roberti. Samuelson. "Convivi- 20. Weber. private communication. The alit) Mocked Global Debt Realities." Il'ash- grain equivalent of idled cropland is cal- ingtonPost,October 4. 1983. culated assuming a marginal grain yield of 3.1 metric tons per hectare. 2. Fora description t.f Norway's system of natural resource accounting. see Per Arild 21. For a discussion of the demographic Garnasjordet and Petter Longva.Outline of a consequences of famine in China, see H. Splem of Resource Accounts. The Norioegian Expe YuanTien."China:DemographicBil- rience(Paris: Organisation for Economic Co- lionaire,"Population Bu Ikon(Washington. operation and Development. 1980). and Pet- D.C.: Population Reference Bureau. 1983); ter Longva,A System of Maw( Resource U.S. food aid shipments to India are unpub- Accounts(Oslo: Central Bureau of Statistics, lished data on P.L. 480 from Dewain Rahe, 1981); for a comparison of several countries' USDA. FAS, private communication. August experiences with resource accounting. see 31.1983. Tony Friend, "Review of International Expe- 22. Michael deCourcy Hinds. "U.S. Giv- rience in Natural Resource Accounting." ing Peru and Bolivia Millions in Food Aid." presented to the United Nations Environ .Yew YorATimes, June 2, l983; FAO and ment Programme (UNEP). Ad Hoc. Expert World Food Programme Special Task Force. Consultative Meeting or. Environmental Ac- "Exceptional international Assistance Re counting and Its Use in Development Plan- quired in Food Supplies. Agriculture and An- ning. Geneva. February 23-25. 1983 (re- imal Husbandry for African Countries in ferred to in following notes as UNEP Ad Hoc 1983/84." Rome. September 30. 1983. Expert Meeting). 23. Amartya Sen. "How is India Doing ?." 3. Edward Weiller. "The Use of Environ- Ken. ForAReview of Books.December 16. mental Accounting for Development Plan- 1982. ning. presented Jo UNEP Ad Hoc Expert 24. Dr.ColinMcCord."The Com- Meeting. paniganj Project." presented sthe annual 4. Japan's emphasis on pollution and meeting of the American Public Health Asso- other environmental consequences of indus- ciation. Miami Beach. Florida, October 17- trializationis evident in Government of 2 4 1976. Japan. Environment Agency.Quality of the En- 25. USDA, ERS.Latin Amenca World Agri- vironment in japan 1982(Tokyo: 1983). culture RegionalSupplementReview of 1982 and 5. Results of the 1977 inventory are pub- Outlook for 1983(Washington. D.C.: 1983). lisherg in U.S. Department of Agriculture 26. U.S. food aid shipments under P.1.. (USDA). Soil Conservation Service, and Iowa 480 are from Rahe. private communication; State University Statistical Laboratory.Baste International Monetary Fund. Washington. Statistics 1977 National Resources inventory.Sta- D.C.. press release. May 21. 1981. tistical Bulletin No. 686 (Washington, D.C.: 1982). Analysis of the 1982 National Re- 27. Mac Margolis. "Brazil 'dust bowl' 5 sources Inventory, conducted by the Soil times size of Italy,"Christian ScienceMannar. Conservation Service and the Iowa State Uni- August 26, 1983. versity StatisticalLaboratory. should be 28. USDA. ERS. World Indices. available in 1984.

253 (238) Notes

6. Kenneth Moulding. quoted in National tionalRice ResearchInstituteResearch Academy of Sciences.-Energy Chown in a Demo- Paper Series No. 29 (Manila: May 1979). cratic Society (Washington, D.C.: 1980). 16. John P. McInerney et al.. "The Conse- 7. "Critical Moment in Bangladesh." Peo- quences of Farm Tractors inPakistan," ple (London), Vol. 7., No. 4, 1980. World Bank, Washington, D.C.. 1975. 8. The KV is discussed in Overseas De. 17. Lewis M. Simons, "Social, Economic velopment Council. The United States and inequitiesFuelPhilippineInsurgency," World Development 1977 Agenda (New York; Washington Post. September 17, 1977. Praeger Publishers. 1977). 18. Michael Lipton, "Urban Bias: Or Why 9. The development of small hydropower Rural People Stay Poor." People (London). in China is discussed in Robert P. Taylor. Vol. 3. No. 2, 1976. Rural Energy Development in China (Wash- ington. D.C.: Resources for the Future. 19. David Welsh, Professor of South Afri- 1981). can Studies. University of Capetown, quoted in Mike Nicol. "Overpopulation Threatens 10. For an overview of the prospects for South African Lifestyle." World Environment improving irrigation efficiency. see Mark Report, April 30, 1983; Republic of South Svendsen, Douglas Merry, and Wonh Fitz- Africa, Report of the Science Committee of the Presi- weld. "Meeting the Challenge for Better Ir- dent's Council on Demographic Trends m South rigation Management," Horizons (Journal of Africa (Capetown: The Government Printer. the D.S. Agency for International Develop- 1983). ment). March 1983. 20. Charles William Maynes. "If the Poor 11. "Each additional million liters of alco- Countries Go Under, Well Sink With hol distilled creates 45 new jobs." James Them." Washington Post, September 18, 1983. Bruce, "Brazil's Alcohol Project Flourish- ing." journal of Commerce. June I, 1983. 21. Ruth Leger Sivard, World Military and Social Expenditures 1983 (Washington. D,C.: 12. For an introduction to anaerobic di- World Priorities. 1983). gestion technologies. see Andrew Barnett. Leo Pyle, and S. K. Subramanian. Brogan Tech- 22. Inga Thorsson, "Guns and butter: Can nology in the Third World: A Attiltiduciphriary Re- the world have both ?,"' dernational Labour view (Ottawa: International Development Review, july/August 1983. Research Center, 1978). 23. Military shares of GNP are from Si- 13. For efforts to develop appropriate and yard, World Military and Sonal Expenditures. efficient stove designs. see Bina Aprwal, The The effects of military spending on the Soviet Wood Fuel Problem and the Dijrusion of Rural In- economy are reviewed in Gregory G. Hilde- novations (preliminary draft) (Brighton. En- brandt, "The Dynamic Burden of Soviet De- gland: Science Policy Research Unit. Univer- fense Spending." in joint Economic Commit- sity of Sussex. October 1980), tee, U.S. Congress. Soviet Economy in the 1980's: Problems and Prospects (Washington. 14. See Sigurd Grava, "Locally Generated D.C.:U.S. Government Printing Office, Transport Modes of the Developing World." 1983). in National Academy of Sciences. Transpor- tation Research Board, L'reon Transportation 24. Marshall Goldman. "Let'sExploit &mows (Washington. D.C.; 1978). Moscow's Weakness," New York Times, April 15. Y. Morooka, R. W. Herdt, and L. D. 4. 1982. Haws. An Analysis of the Labor-Intensive Continu- 25. For a review of U.S.-Soviet food trade, ous Rice Production System at 1R RI. Intern- see Lester R. Brown, U,S. and Soviet Agricui-

254 Notes (239) lure: The Shifting Balance of Power (Washing- Serge Bromberger, Jean Monne, and the Cnoted ton. D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, October States of Europe (New York: Coward-McCann. 1982). Inc., 1969). 26. Robert Lekachman, "Remedies Avail- 32. Edward Schumacher, "Argentine able. Good Sense Lacking,- Challenge. March/ Leader's First Crisis Will Be Cash," New Fork April 1983. Tunes, November 6, 1988. 27. Thorsson. "Guns and butter.- 33. Gunter Grass. is a New Barbarism Overtaking Our World?," Washington Start 28. Growth in military expenditures is cal- July 13. 1975. culated from data in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, World Armaments and 34. Soedjalmoko. "Political Systems and Disarmament, S1PR1 Yearbook 1983 (New York: Development in the Third World: New Di- Taylor & Francis. Inc..1983); economic rections for Social Science Research in Asia," growth rate is derived from Herbert R. Block, Nirrnailves, Spring 1988. The Planetary Product m 1980: 4 Creative Pause? 35, Needed growth in population expen- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, ditures is from Dana Lewison, "Sources of 1981). and World watch Institute estimates, Population and Family Planning Assistance." 29. Sivard. World Althtary and Social Expen- Population Reports (Baltimore, Md.). January/ ditures, February 1983: the comparison with global military expenditures is based on data from 80. Ibid. Stockholm International Peace Research In- 31. For Jean Monners role in designing stitute, S1PR1 Yearbook 1983, the European Community, see Mary and

255 Index

acacia tree. 88.93 Andean countries. 5. 54 Acadeins of Agricultural Sciences (Soviet Union). 59 Andropov, Yuri, 205 acid ram. X111. 10. 14. 74. 79- 82.98. 196 architecture. climatesensinve, 198 Addis Ababa (Ethiopia). kerosene price in. 41 ARCO Solar, Inc.. 152 AEG elefunken, phounciltale demonstration projects. Argentina 152 Iamb rate decline in. 26 Africa fertilizer use in. 179 oricithiii41 output of, 5. 191-92 foreign (lebt interest in, 16. 194 assessment of fisture. 27 gasoline tax in. 38. 44 deforestation in. 75-6 grain surplus in. 184. 186 desertification in. 10 Iron and steel recycling in. 110 drought of 1983 tn. 175 military expenditures reduced in. 205 economic decline in, 29 nuclear power in. 130-31 fallowing to restore sod in. 56 Arizona, 119. 154. 177 famine relief from UMW' Stales for, 188 arms imports. to Thud World, we military food production fallen in. 24. 175 expenditures (nod shortages acute Mb 75. 189, 192 Army Corps of Engineers. 67 (melts ood price increases in, 83 Asia gram production in. 192 fertilizer in, I8C Income decline in, 190 forested land clearing in. 76-77 lisestock herds dwindling in, 16 fuelwood scarcities in, 83 monalits rate in, 73 soil loss in. 57-62 population explosion and laud in. 5. 27. 30, 192 tropical forests in. 8485 Sahel region. 8$ sod acidification in. 197 Athabasca River Basin. tar sand production. 166 soil erosion in, 5, 72-73 Atomic Energy Commission (U.S.). 116 solar energy tit, 153 Atomic Industrial Forum (U.S.). 125 staid ccccc hies in. 178 Atommash. Soviet nuclear reactor production facility. Agency for International Deielopmcm (AID), 65. 153 128-29 agriculture. underinsestment in. 178, 192 Atoms For Peace program, 117 Agocuhure. 11.5 Department of (USDA). xv. 30, 53. Australia 63. 177. 181. 184 alternate year (Topping In. 55 agroforestn. 88 aluminum production in, 104-05 air pollution desertification in. 10 and automobile's future. 169. 172 grain surplus in, IN. 186 coal cause of. 135 income disinbution ratio in, 202 central strategies, 80. 196 nuclear pow,. in 1983 in. 118 forests deoroyed by, 14, 74 solar cell industry in, 150 alcohol as automatise fuel in Brazil, xvi. 4. I5. 38, 46. lax incentives for conversion from oil tn. 46 167 - 68.200 Austria Algeria. 50. 184 German waste exchange used in. 101 Alfonsin. Pesodentelect Raul. 208 scrap export limos in, 114 Ali amont Pass (California), wind machine noise. 140 automobile. 157-74 aluminum aluminum in. 104 budding world markets for, 114 dealers. 12 cost saving by use, 105 and driving habits in U.S.. 39 iniernatoimal trade II.. 105. 113 engines, 142 location of factories, 13 and fuel efficiency. 38-39. 16244 production versus recycling eon. mu, 4. 13.90, government taxes discourage ownership of. 161 95-6, 105.419 industry in United States, 12. 139. 157. 159 recoserv.115. 104-09. 112, 113-14 Japanese produced, see Japan. automobile in Amazon basin. 13. 56.92 oil conservation and. 12. 3549 Amboklao Dam (Philippines). 65, 84 oil prices and. 15940 American Farmland 'Trust. 68 production of. 8. 159-66, American Paper Institute, 103 recycling of. 112 American Society of Agronomy. 73 site of. 144 Anatolian plater. of Turkey, alternate year cropping automobile supply Industries. effect of higher oil in. 55 prices. 8 Anchicay a Dam (Colombia). 66 Athomouve Fuel Efficieney Ad (U.S.). 163

256 Index (241)

B ali (Indonesia). 26.77 B ulgaria Baltic Sea, soil erosion in region of. 60 nuclear industry in. 128 bamboo, shortages of. 83-84 population staboliration possible. 23 Bangkok. traffic congestion in. In B urlington (Vg. power plant in. 143-44 Bangladesh B urma population growth. contrast to Japan. 21 contrast with China, 31. 169 deforestation of Himalayan hills, 84 California family planning in. 32. 3 3. 191 geothermal energy tn. 147 famine deathsM.191 national nuclear waste disposal program. 132 fuelwood price increases in, 83 solar-electricity in. 152 income distribution ratio in. 202 wind farms. xvi, 4, 137-40 land reform in. 191 wood burning utilities. 141-43 populadow_growth in. 21, 30 California Department of Water Resources, poverty definition. 197 geothermal energy user, 147 Barbados, birth rates in. 24 Californic Energy Commission. I. 138 basic needs development strategy. Camels Hump. acid rain research. 79.81 -82 nutrition/literacy/health care. 204 Cameroon, fuelwood price increases. 83 basic social indicators, focus on life expectancy. 198 Canada Sande Memorial Institute. 164 acid rain's effect in, 79, 81 bauxite. aluminum production from. 105 aluminum production and recycling in. 13. 104. 105 Bayliss, David. 168-69 Amason Basin investment by, 13 beef. 10. 30, 77-78 automobile fuel efficiency standards, 39 Beiser institute in Sweden. tropical Africa stove birth rates, 24 design. 89 container deposit laws, 108 Belgium federal grants for insulation. 46 econont'^ growth on. 28 geothermal heat in future. 148 as food importer, 184 grain surplus In, 183-84. 186 gasoline tax high on, 44 homeowners/business grants for conversion from won and steel recycling in. 109 oil in, 40.47 nuclear industry on. 128 income distribution ratio in, 202 solar cell industry in, 150 national energy program in. 46 wind machine from. I, 139 nuclear power in. 116-17. 122 bensopyrene, from iron ore production. 96 oil price in. 46 Bersrand, Anson R.. 53 Paper companies in. 102. 142 beverage container deposits, 112 we also container solar cell industry in. 150 deposit legislation tar sands in. 44. 166 biocles, 13, 203. 208 waste paper user. 101-02 biological support systems, 2-3. 14-16. 29 wheat in, 182 biological thresholds, and population growth. 20 wind machines erected in. 137 bioniasa. conversion to methane, 134. 154, 200 wood energy in, 141, 142 B ioSolar Research and Development, wood pellet Canadian Wheat Board. exports banned. 184 producer. 144 CANDU, nuclear plants. 122 biotechnology, growth industry, 8.208 car pools. 39 birth and death rates, 197, 207 cars, to automobiles birth rate reduction. to family planning Carter. President Jimmy, 30.44, 103. 185 B 1, Ltd., new car. 165 Caspian Sea, diversion of water for irrigation, 177 Bombay (India). fuelwood price increases. 83 cassava, on atoping land. 54 Borovaky, Dr. Vladimir. 59 catalytic converters, for control of wood pollutants. Nude hill, Iff container deposit legislation Boulding. Kenneth. 197 cante145.ratsing, export money for. 77 Brasil Central America alcohol fuel, 4, 13. 38. 42.46. 160, 167.68.200 agroforestry in, 88 alternative energy sources on. 13 economic growth decline in. 28 aluminum in. IS, 104 food production in. 5 Aniaroman basin investment by. IS forest region. 75, 77 automobile use in. 170-71 fuelwood expense in, 82 automobile industry in. 160 population crises on. 192 cattle raising in. 78 Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) of and chemical industry switch from petroleum, 46 United Kingdom. 121 economic future of. 194 Centre for Science and Environment {India). xv expon earnings and foreign tiebi 'merest on, 16. charcoal. 77, 82 191-92, 1 Chile food crises in. 192 export earnings pay foreign debt interest. 16 production kerosene price. 41 frasdpi;irc°de China gasoline rationing. 51 aluminum production in. 105 income distribution ratios in, 202 automobile in, 157, 169. 173 iron and steel in, 110. 113 biogas program in. 155 nuclear power in. 131 coal use increased in, 47 oil consumption decline, 38, 49 dams in, 66, 199 population growth on, 21, 192. 194 desertification In. 10 sod acidification in. 82 dust storms in, 60 solar cell industry in. 150. 153 family planning in. 24, 25 wood converted to charcoal for sleet industry in. 77 famine in 1980-8I. 188 Breshnev. President Leonid. 205 geothermal heat in. 147. 148 B ritain. ire United Kingdom Global 2000 study in, 31 B rower. David. 103 iron and steel recycling in. 110

257 ( 24 2 ) Index

China (continued/ non and sleet recycling en. 109-10 and log imports from United States. 92 natural gas substituted fur oil. 42 nuclear plants lacking in. 131 nuclear program in. 128 oil consumption reduction in. 38. 47 population stabilization possible. 23 oil exporter. 38. 47 oil production increase in. 50 Dacca (Bangladesh). fuelwood price in in. 83 Population growth in. 3. 18.24. 31-34 Daly. Herman. 29 rerorestramin in. 89 dams. 63. 175. 199 river 5111510M sit. 60 Dangler. E. W . 54 soil acidification in. 82 Data Resources Incorporated. 194 soil Vt0S1011 rate estimates of. 34. 57. 60 death rates. reasons For decline in. 24 solar cell ',whisky In. 150 declining standard of living. tee population waste paper market in, 102 deforestation Chirac. Jacques. 116 and timid economic growth. act. 18 Chronar Corporation. photovoltaic equipment economic effects of. 2. 82-86 exporter. 133 forces behind. 74- 79.82 -83 Clark Foundation. Edna McConnell. XIII in Third World countries. 5. 192 climate change through greenhouse effect. 133 in tropics. 74 closed forests. definition of. 74 Delphos project in Italy. photovoltaic demonstration coal projects. 152 and air pollution, 133 Denmark and consequences of its use. 4 automobile ownership discouraged in. 172 hquefication. 42, 166 container deposit law, in. 308 and nuclear power. 120-33, 139 n uclear power in 1983 in. 118 petroleum solishtute. 4 photovoltaic demonstration projects in. 152 price 111411.4W8 effect aluminum recycling. I0$ public transport system in. 172 prate of an West Germany. 121 scrap export limits in, 114 world trade in. 19 thermal efficiency of buildings standard in. 46 {e.alburnIng industries. retrofitted for wnod burning. wind power in. 137. 140 143 Denver (Colorado). "reverse vending machine" in. coke. in won ore production. 96 log Colorado desertification. 10. 29. 195 dryland farming in. 15. 177 diesel generators. electricity source in villages. 153. oil shale deposits M. 14,6 154 wind /union in. 56 Diesel. William. xiii woodbucmng regulations in. 145 Dobozi. Istvan. 47 Colombia Dodge Foundation. Geraldine R viii silting of hydroelectric resersoirs. Dokuchacv Soil Institute in Moscow. 60 tar sands in. 166 Dow Corning Corporation, 143-45 conservation DIM iron ore reduction technique. 110 and gasoline efficiency. 39 dryland farming. 15 Eastern bloc countries. 47 Dutch. sty Netherlands 'Third World countries. 40 and tillage. 72 earthquakes. and nuclear power plants, 129. 131 Conservation Foundation. Slate of the Entironntelis 1982. East Germany xs acid ram in. 10, 79.80 Consumers Power Company of Michigan. financing iron and steel recycling in. 110 nuclear power. 124 n atural gas substituted-for oil in. 42 container deposit legislattoo. 4. 108-09. 113-14 nuclear power industry tn. 128 contour fuming. soil erosion measures used in. 71 zero population growth in. 23 cooking fuel. cost increase. 2. 78 set also kerosene and Eastern Europe wood automobile in. 157. 159. 169. 171 Coors Brewers. reticles cans. 108 debt problems of. I. 18. 157 corn land ownership in. 183 alcohol fuel base of. 167-68 n uclear industry in. 128 Ceorgia sidds of. 63 recycling iron and steel. 110 grown in topsoildeprised ens tttttt mem. 62.63 set also Europe hybrids in Thid World. 176, 179 Echeverria. President Luis of Mexico. 26-27 and North America feed bag. 184 ecologic restoration. economic value of. 90 as raw crop. 35 Economic Commission for Africa. 27 corn belt states. soil erosion in. 53. 54 economic growth itoporaie tiankruptries. I and automobile's future. 157-174 Costa Rica. 84. 164 and cheap oil. 27 Council On Lnvironmental Quality Maned Stales/. ay. from 1979-83. 194 10. 30. 75 and population growth. 17-18. 31-32. 201-02 cow dung. used instead of firewoed. 42. 78 prospects for. 6-8. 195 Cro11, Elizabeth. 31 relationship to resource base. 194 crop residues. use instead of firewood, 42. 78 for sustainable society, 195 crop minion. midwestern United States. 55. 180 economic slowdown, as restriction nn world trade. 19 crop surpluses. United States. 5. 180 Ecuador. economic growth decline. 28 crop fields. decline in. 61-62 Edison Electric Institute. 133 cropland abandonment. 60-62 Edwards.] Rodney. 103 cropping patterns. 53 EEC,seeEuropean Economic Community Cuba. birth rate in. 24, 26 Egypt Crechoolovalia ferptilityin. 31 acid rain effect in, 10. 79. 80 food importer. 184 coalburning power plants. 14 n o room for cars. 169 258 Index (243) nuclear power in. 131 onechild families. 4, 24. 32-34 paper recycling in. 103 peer pressure for. 33 Eisenhower. President Dwight 0.. 206 public education program for. 34 El Salvador religion and. 25 geothermal energy use in. 149 reproductive behavior and. 180.208 -209 population growth projections. 30 in Sinitic cultures. 24 EISwaify. S A.. 54 sterilization. 33 electric arc furnace. 13. 110 successes. 26 electrical generating plants. substitution for oil. SO. unavailable so Third World couples. 209 47. 134 famine. 1, 163-164. 175 Electricite de France (EDF). 122. 127 farm debt, United Slaws see United States. farm debt electricity in as automotive fuel source. 16647 FAO. we United Nations Food and Agriculture coal-fired versus nuclear. 123 Organization oil substitution for, 40-41 farm debt. United States. 13. 56, 156-57 renewable sources of. 134. 150-154 farm equipment, and soil erosion. 56 -57,59 wane geothermal and wind power farm products, price rise in. 182 emission controls for coal-burning power plants. 14 farmland, see soil conservation and soil erosion employment farmers, convert land to nonproductive use. 189 and renewable energy projects. 156. 200 fertility declines, as economic gains increase. 23.27, economic policies that encourage. 198-201 33-34 see also United Slates. unemployment in fertiliser energy. 11-13 from biomass conversion. 200 conservation. 13. 133-34. 154-56 chemical. 55. 62. 153, 178 costs versus employment costs. 7, 197 diminishing returns from use. 8 future constraints on. 27 manufacture of as major industry. 179 inadequate U.S projections on. SO needs increase with topsoil loss, 72. 178 materials recycling. 98 197. tee also recycling oil price rises and. 176 source Jeterminants. 136 requirements. 178 supply patterns. 156 phodiufas rows Energy Ecomoinus. energy efficiency Finland labels on appliances. 46 energy forests of. 14I standards for buildings. 46 nuclear industry in. 128 Energy Fund. in Iceland for geothermal energy. 148 population stabilisation possible, 23 energy price firewood, see fuelwood controls and paper recycling. 103 Fischer. Lloyd K . 71 reflection of real cost. 94 fisheries. 2. 10. 14.29 regulations. 106 Five Year Plan, in Soviet Union. 122. 128-29 subsidies reduction. 96. 103. 112 flood damage. 84 Energy Systems Research Group. nuclear operation Flores Rados. M.A.. 94 costs, 120 Florida. phosphate fertiliser source. 180 Energy, V.S. Department of. ay, 30.51. 125. 151.,154 food energy-related structural adjustments. 11-13 Agriculture Dept. reports. xi. Energy/Development International. report on consumption of, 5 conservation in Third World. 40 Noire constraints on. 27 erosion. sec soil erosion inadequate U.S. projections on, 30 ErosionProductivity Impact Calculator. U.S. relief efforts. 165 Agriculture Department, 70 Food and Agricultural Organisation. see United eucalyptus, 74-75 Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation Eugene (Oregon). 125 food assistance, denial for political seasons. 185 Europe food production automotive industry in. 158. 160 increase in costs. 53. 191 deforestation from pollutants. 74 -75.97 per capita. 8 electricity cost in. 139 and population growth. 20. 175. 190 gas tax. 172 price of. 10. 176. 193 nuclear power future insecure. 115 117 slowing of 7.28 oil refineries in, 12 and soil erosion. IO. 30-31. 53, me also soil erosion population growth in. 5 food reserves. 5, 161 solar cell research in. 149 food security index, 185-89 steelmakers" subsidies. 1 1 1 food supplies. 175-193 trade slack. 91 Ford pla shutdown, 161 wood in.84, 14I Forest Inaustries Renewable Energy Program European Economic Community (EEC) (Canada). !41 aluminum scrap and. 107 Forest Service of United States. 102. 113 photovoltaic demonstration projects. 152 forested lands, reduce soil erosion. 172 scrap export restrictions of. 114 forests. 2. 5. 7444. 113 exponential growth, 35 acidifying. 10, 14. 79 export embargoes. United States. 6 area changes. 195 Export-Import Bank (U.S.). 117 clearings and shifting agriculture. 76-77 external debt. 1. 15. 53. 167 conversion to grating land, 77-78, 180 demand exceed supply. 10, 14 fallow land, 54-62, 76 exploitation of. 93 family planning fallow defined. 75 abortion. 2 3. 26 heavy metal pollutants threaten, 74.81 access as a basic human right. 3243 management of. 144 availability, of. 23 and population growth. 20 economic incentives for. MN 25, 33 products of, 30:97

259 ( 24 4 ) Index forests (continued) protection of, 5 glassindustries and higher oil prices. 8. 161 residue for deetric power plants, 143 in Japan. 100. 106 resources untaialoguecl. 74 regreling. 108-09. 112. 197 role in tropical development, 86-87. Re else tropical Global2000 study,xv. 30 fore sts GNP. and energy ratio. 48. 198 shrinkage of. 10 Goldman, Marshall, 205 soil crosion and. 172 Ggrorainbachev. 1kb/it S.. 59 in United States. 4 fossil fuels. world trade in. 19, me else coal and natural amount grown in 1983, 175 as carryover stocks. defined. 185-86 fosseuel powcr plants, higher smoke stacks. 35, 80 exports restricted. 185 foundations. or Clark. Dodge. Gund. Jones. Mellon. imports for Third World, 6 Noble. Kockereller Brothers. United Nations Fund and oil price shifts. 7. 11 -IS for Population Activities worldwide demand. 45. 176. 189. 197 Framatome, nuclear power company in France. 127 worldwide production. 7.26. 176 France Grant. Kenneth. 57 aluminum production in. 105 grass, to contain topsoil erosion. 180 automobiles in. 165. 170 Grass. Gilmer, 208 buildings-tempcmure controls in. 46 grassland deterioration, xvi. 14. 18. 195. see also (new efficiency cede in, 40. 46 desertification and sod crosion fuel efficiency of cars in. 38. 39. 165 Gray, Robert. 68 geothermal heating in. 146. 148 grazing. overgrazing. 2. 195 German waste exchange used in, 101 Great Plains of North America. 55. 153 grain surplus in. 184. 186 Greece income distribution ratio in. 202 photovoltaic demonstration projects in. 152 nuclear power in. 41. 116-118, 122-25. 125. 127. population stabilization possible, 23 133 greenhouse effect. 133 oil consumption reduction in. 38 greenhouse heating, geothermal heat for. 146 photovoliaiecs. 133 Gross National Product. are GNP population stabilization possible in. 23 Guatemala resource accounting. 196 geothermal water for cooking. 146 solar cell industry in. 133. 150, 153 population growth projections. 30 sulfur dioxide emissions in. 80 Gujarat (India), forestry program in. 5. 87 Franke.JOrgen. 122 Gulf of Thailand. fisheries peaked. 10 Franklin A ssociates. 97 Gund Foundation, George W.. xiii Frazer. John A.. 82 Gustafson. Thane. 59 Eceeman. °nide. ant Freeman. S David. 121 Haiti. hydropower decreased by siltation. 126 Freiburg Institute. 122 Hamburg. nuclear powcr demonstration site. 109 Friends of the Earth, 103 . "hamburger connection." 78 Fuchi City (japan). paper disposal. 100 Hammer. Turi, 88 fuel, waste paper as. 103-04 Hawaii. geothermal electricity for. 149 fuel efficiency. 40, 163-64. 169, see also automobile health care, basic needs development strategy, 203 fuelwood. xvi. 14. 36, 74. 78. 06, 137. 140-45 heating. 33. 40. 134. 145. steaks coal. electrieity. electricity generation from, 142-43 fuelwood, geothermal. hydropower, kerosene. energy statistics Ignore. 154 natural gas. and nuclear environmental effects of harvesting of. 144-45 herbicides. 68 illegal cutting of. 156 Hewlett Foundation. William and flora. xiii industrial use of, 142-43 Himalayas. landslides in, 54.84 kerosene substituted for. 7 Hiroshima. waste paper disposal. 100 residential use of, 4. 123 Hirshberg. Gary, My shortage of. 4, 20. 82-83. 90-91 home insulation, energy efficiency of. 133 transportation of. 10 Homestead Act, land redistribution. 203 Honduran Corporation for Forestry Development. Ganges River. sedimentation of. 57.60 87 garbage collection. 100. 103 Hong Kong. lower birth rates. 24. 33 gasoline hoc springs, geothermal source. 145 mileage. 34. 162-63 housing. and family planning. 33 saved by aluminum replacing steel, 104-05 Hungary tax to restrict autocentered transport system. 171 geothermal heating in, 146 General Accounting Office (United States). 108 iron and steel recycling in. 110 General Agreement on 'Tariffs and Trade. 18 nuclear program in, 128 General Electric. turnkey nuclear plant, 116 zero population growth. 25 General Motors. three cylinder car. 164-65 hydrogen sulfide. at geothermal sites, 148 Georgia, corn yields on piedmont soils, 63 hydropower. xvi. lvs. 137. 149 geothermal energy, xvi. 13. 154. 145 -49, 154. 156 decreased by siltation. 84 Germany electricity source. 13. 41. 65. 98. 106 acid rain in. 10 more localized energy production. 19 atom fissioning begun by. 116 in Norway. 106 coal liquefaction developed by. 166 in Siberia. 13 see also East Germany and West Germany for Third World r..untries, 4 geysers. geothermal source. 145-48 Ghana Iceland, geothermal heat used in. 145-48 gasoline tax high. 44 import restrictions, restrict world trade. 19 maternity benefits restricted. 33 income distribution, and soil erosion. 53 raw log exporter, 85 income distribution ratio. 201-02 2c Index (245 ) India German waste cachange used in. 101 acidification susceptible soils in. 82 iron and steel recycling in, 109-113 deforestation of Himalayan hills in. 84 nuclear power (inure insecure. 126 family planning in. 5. SS solar cell industry in, 150. 153 famine %ions in and tinned States intervention. waste paper use in, 101 188 zero population growth in, 23 fertilizer use in. 179 Ivory Coast, fuelwood pnce increases, 83 forests in. 5, 76, 84 fuelwood burned in. 81, 140 Jacobsen. Judith, SS grain stocks in, 186 Japan income distribution ratio in. 202 air pollution in. 196 nuclear power in 122, 130, 131 aluminum use in. 105 -07. 109. 113 oil consumption increase in. 38, 48 Amazon Basin investment Ly, 13 population growth In, 21. 27, SO. 192 automobile industry in, 38-39, 107. 158-60, 165 Productivity lndea of soil in, 70 bicycle sales in, IS recycled paper in, 102 birth rate in, 25 rural bias in. 20S car market saturation in, 170 social forestry program in, 88 electricity eons, 106-07, 152 sail conservation in, 59. 70 electricity generation with oil in, 92 soil inventory cost in, 70 Energy Conservation Law in, 46 solar cell energy in. 150, 153 food importer, 184 wood shortages in, 84 ruei efficiency in. I62 -65 World Bank watershed project in. 90 geothermal heating in, 147-48 Indian Council for Agncultural Research, soil loss Global 2000 studyin. SI esiimate. 59 hot springs in, 147 Indian Nahum of Management, social fo y income distribution ratio in, 202 program, 88 iron and steel recycling in, 110 Indian Institute of Science. forest losses in India, 77 Ian.; redistribution ir, 202 Indonesia lightwater reactor project with other countries, 129 community sterilization approach in, 33 nuclear powerir.,41, 115. 123, 125-26, 129, 153 fallowing to resitre soil in, 56 OECD nuclear power prediction about. 3 fertility decline in. 26 oil consumption reduction in, 38, 48, 57 geothermal power plant in, 147 paper recycling .in. 4. 107 reforestation of, 94 pollution effect In, 196 small vans for Ira ,sport in. 200 soil erosion and Auden in. 67 population growth in. 2.2S resource accounting in. 196 terracing for soil erosion in. 54 silicon cell production in. 151 transmigration program to outer islands, 26. 77 unprocessed log exports from. 86 solar cell industry in. 149-50. 151 World Bank watershed project in. 90 solar hot water heater grants in. 46 industrial plantations see plantations solar power plant in, 152 Institute for International Economics, 17 state of the environment report in, xv insulation, 58.40. 46 tariffs on processed wood in. 86 intercroppIng. 54 terracing for soil erosion prevention in. 54 Tate raid° nal-Atomic E nergy Agency (IAEA).117, 130. 151 trade deficit of. 91 International Congress of Soil Science. 72 waste paper recovery leader, 98-102. 103, 115 International Energy Agency. 137 wood imports, 84, 83 International Monetary Fund, ay. 18 lava (Indonesia). 76.95. 169 conditions for continued financing. 52. 171 effrey.J.W.. 121 consumer credit restriction in Peru. 173 ersey Central Power & Light Company, turnkey consumer price index, 43 nuclear plant. 116 domestic oil reduction requirement. 171. 173 Jones Foundation. W. Alton. xiii loans to Third World countries, 51 ordan. Donald, 133 militarization of naiional economies and. 207 udson. Sheldon. 57 shoiterm financing for food import bills, 191 value of world exports, 18 Kalimantan (Indunesia). 77 Investor Responsibility Research Center. 153 Kampuchea, 188 !oWa, corn grown in poor topsoil. 60 Kansas. dryland farming. 15 we Ieucaena tree Karnataka State (India). social forestry, program in. 84 Iran Kazakhstan (USSR). minimum tillage in. 69 reuniter production in. 180 Keay: nuclear power 111. 131 economic growth decline. 28 oil in. 28. 50 geothermal energy. 149 Iraq import duty on cars, 173 nuclear power in. 131 open fires for cooking. 88 oil production decline, 50 solar cell potential. 153 iron, 95-96. i09 -14. 161-62 kerosene, 41, 44, 88 irrigation. 65. 177.200 Kettle Palls (Washingtocl. wood waste burning in. 143 Islamabad (Pakistan). kerosene price in, 41 Klamath Palls (Oregon). u:c of geothermal heat in. Islip (New York). and waste urce separatior., 101 145-146 Israel. ay. 131 Kolar District (India). social ,orestry program. 87 hay Komanoff, Charles, 119 aluminum use in. 105, 113 Kordofan. Sudan. 88 Amazon Basin investment. 13 Kuwait automobile market saturation in, 170 fertilizer production in, 180 gasoline tax. 173 oil production decline. 50 geothermal heating in, 147 photovoltaic negotiations, 153

261 (246) index

Labrador. 13 export earnings pay foreign debt interest of. 14. Lagos (Nigeria). traffic tongesiton in. 172 194 lakes, death of related to forest death. 81 fertility decline in. 26 land gas price rise in. 51. 171. 173 availability and automobiles future. 169 geothermal energy in. 147, 149 prices, and farm debt. 15 Global 2000 study in, 31 reform. 194. 202-03 income distribution ratio in, 202 scarcity and population explosion. 27 nuclear power in. 131 use pressures and renewayle energy. 155 oil consumption increase in. 38 landfill. 100. 102. 103. 113 as oil exporter. 38, 49.50 landownership, and stewardship of land, 69 oil price drop unanticipated in. 16 landslides, due to lack of terracing. 54 population growth projections in. 20-21, 26-27. SO, Latin America external debt of. 203 Productivity Index of soil in. 70 grain export of. 183. 192 scrap recycled in, 13 income distribution in. 202 soil erosion and siltation. 67 nuclear power in. 131 solar cell industry in, 149 political conflicts in. 191 waste paper use in. 13, 99. 101-02 population crises. 26. 184 Mexico City. 172 processed wood exporter, 85 Michigan, container recycling creates jobs in. 108, 113 shortened fallow period. 56 Middle East Lekachman. Robert, 205 dem tificauon of. 10 Lebanon. as food importer, 184 economic growth decline in. 28 Ledec. George, 86 food production in. 5-6 Leontief, Windy. 31 income distribution in, 202 leucaena tree. 93. 144 military expenditures. 5-6. 15. 118, 204-06 Libya, as food importer. 184 milk, produced with U.S. feedgrains. 182 licensing imports. effect on recycling. 102 minimum tillage, limits to, 67 life expectancy, 175, 198. 207 minimum wage, 199 lighowaier nuclear plants, we nuclear plants Ministry of Environment (India), xiv Limerick 1 nuclear plant, 119 Ministry of Environment (Norway). 196 Lands to Grow114. xv Minisiq of International Trade and Industry(Japan), Limon. Michael. 203 1 tioaid fuels. 154. 166 Minnes9ota, 'topsoil erosion in. 62-63 h.eracy. basic needs development strategy. 198, 203 Mississippi River. 57-58. 67 litter, container recycling and cleanup. 108. 114 Missouri, soil erosion. 55. 60. 62 Long Island Lighting Company (Lilco). Shoreham Mitterrand. President Francois, 127 nuclear plant. 124 -25 Monnet, jean, 207 Limns, Amory and Hunter, xiv Montana, woodburning regulations in, 145 Luxembourg mopeds and motor scooters, supplement public iron and suet recycling in. 109 transportation with. 203, 208 aro population growth, 23 Morocco. as phosphate fertiliser source, 180 LykLeon, 63 mortality rates, see death rates mountain regions, and terracing. 54 M 'Aida (japan). garbage recycling in. 100 Murray. Anne, ix machine tool industries, higher oil prices effect on, 8 Myers. Dr. Norman, 76. 78.94 MacKerron, Cordon. 121 Maine. container recycling and liner, 108. 113 Nagpur (India). and tree cutting. 78 Malaysia National Association of Recycling Industries, 101 acacia trees in. 93 National Committee on Environmental Pinning colonization causing forest conversion. 77 (India). 66 maternity benefits restricted, 33 National Resources Inventory (U.S.), erosion data, Mangla Reservoir in Pakistar.. 65 55-60 Maricopa County(Arizona).competition for water. National Soil ErosionSod Productivity Research Ping 1 7 Committee (U.S.), 62, 70 marketdevelopment, f o r steel recycling, 1 1 1 natural gas Maryland, recycled paper law in. 103 exports from Soviet Union. 42 materials recycling, monthly data on. 197 in nitrogen fertilizer industry. 180 Matsumoto.Mune°. 100 as substitute for oil. 40-43 Mauna . oa Observatory (Hawaii). observations of and waste paper recycling. 103-04 atmospheric soil CM. 58 world trade in. 19 Maynes. C. William, 204 Nepal McVay, Scott, ix terracing for soil erosion in. 54 meat, produced with U.S femora's's. 182, sit afro beef forested hillsides used tn. 77 medical technologies, and distribution of health care, no income tax deductions for children. 33 203 World Bank watershed project in. 90 Melton Foundation. Andrew W., xi,: Netherlands Merril. Lynch Company. nuclear plant closing list. 124 Amason Basin investment of. 13 metal scrap, 98 set also iron and steel container deposit laws in. 108 metals recovery. advantages of. 96 nuclear industry in. 128 methane generation from biological waste. xvi, 134. paper recycling in, 4, 100-03 137.200 population stabilization possible in. 28 iethanol distilleries for world markets. 156 resource accounting system in. 196 Mexico. 31 resource recovery in. 10043 aluminum in, 106 solar cell industry in. 150 automobiles in, 164, 170 xr waste paper recovery leader. 98-99. 100-101. 113 desertification in. 10 and farm in. 139-40

262 Index (247)

Ncw Alchemy Institute. Inv Ogallala aquifer, 15, 177 New England, fuelwood use by homeowners in. 142 oil New Energy Development Organization (japan). 152 as automobile fuel. 42. 159, 166 Ncw Guinea, processed wood 111. 86 as chemical feedstock. 7 Ncw Hampshire, wind farm in. 138 conscoation. 38-41 Ncw York. 143 consumption. 35-38, 197 combiner dcp OM laws in, 108 declining role of. 2. 7. 19 nuclear power cost in. 119 decontrol of in United Stabs. 44 New Zealand, geothermal fields of. 13 and economic growth rate. 7. 18 newspaper recycling. 95 and energy productivity, 140, 197 Nicaragua, population growth projections of, 30 food cons and, 7. 176 Nigeria. SI for gumming electricity, 7 cereal yields of, 56 and grain price comparison, 11 erosion on unterraced land in. 54 natural gas substituted for. see natural gas fallowing soil in, 56 and population. 18.50 iron producibln from scrap, 110 price roses for, 43-44, 154. 16142 oil and population policies on. 28 product prices controlled, 36. 42 oil price drop unanticiapted in. 16 production levels falling, 7, 12, 50-51, 80 population growth in. 21 30-31 reduced worldwide dependence. xiv. 3, 35-52 Produciivity Index of soil in. 70 rcierves depletion, xvi. 1,8-9. 189. 195 soil siltation disasters in. 67 substitutes, 40-43 wood exporter 16. 85 versus nuclear. 120. 133 Nine Mile Point 2 nuclear plant, 119 oil shale. 42. 166 n ommen. 55. 64. 81. 179.40 othimponing. versus oll.exporting countries, 12 n urelen oxides, threaten foresos, 74 onechild families. see family planning Nixon. President Richard, 117. 184 Ontario flidro, nuclear construction costs. 122 Noble Foundation, Edward John. mu OPEC NorbergHodge, Helena. xiv price hike, ay. 3. 12. 35-36 North America Saudi Arabia role in. 50 acid rain in. 10, 79 open woodland, defined. 75 agricultural °input. 5, 175 Oregon. elforemasion from pollutants. 74 container re Wing and job creation. 108 export embargo on grain, 184 woodbm.nirig regulations, 145 food production outstrips population growth. 5.30. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and 175 Development (OECD). 3. 103. 115. 126, 132 grain supplier, 6, 18245 Orgllation of Petroleum Expor:ing Countries, ice MOM' power projections of 1970. 115 O',iPEC sulfur dioxide emissions in, 80 overcuiting, 10, 141 tropical Asian hardwood user, 84 overgrazing, 10. 195 wood waste in. 141. 144 Overseas Development Council. l° ie. also United Stases, Canada, and Mexico North Dakota. "reverse vending machine" in. 108 Pacifis Gas and Electric Company. 138, 147. 152 North Sea, wind farm located on. 140 Pacific Northwest of United States, aluminum recycling in, 105 Aluminum in. 104-06 packaging, aluminum for, 106-07 Awromobile deposit law, 112 Pakistan container deposit laws. 108 deforestasion of Himalayan hills. 83 won and beet collection policies, 112 income tax deductions for two children in. 33 oil prices in, 11 nuclear power plants in. 130 oil produnion decline. 50 population growth provetions on, 30 resource accounting symem, 196 soil erosion and siltation 67 aero population growth, 22 solar electricity_ in. 163 Nuclear Ent egy Agency of OECD. 132 Palo Verde(California). nuclear power plain costs. ,Awicar potbr plants 19 capAt.iy in 1973, 117 Panama Canal. 67, 84 construction cons for. 123-24 Papago Indian Reservation. pholovoluits for village decomissioning of. 132 electricity. 153 economics of. 113-35 paper. global recovery rates. 113-14 eletoricity costs and. 119 Paper Industries Corporation of the Philippines future of, 115. 132-35. 136.208 (PICOP). 89 lightwater plann, 120. 129 paper mills, types of, 102-03 opposimon to, 126 paper recycling. 96-98 selling of, 116-18 Peligree Dam (Haiti), situation of, 84 in Soviet Union. 46-47 Pellworm bland (West Germany). photovoltaic substitute for oil, 3, 41, 133 demonstration projects in. 152 target for military attack. 132 Pennsylvania. nuclear power cost, 119 in Third World. 130-32 Peru In United States 119-21 anchovy fishery collapse on, 14, 173 nuclear submariner, 116 automotive manufacturing on, 172-73 nuclear war. 2. 6 forest clearings in Andes. 77 nuclear waste disposal. see waste disposal, nuclear pesticides, and oil price roses. 176 nuclear weapons, 2. 116. 204 petroleum, tee oil NUCOR iron and steel mill. 110 Philippines nutrition. 188. 203 agroforesery on. 77.84, 89. 93 cam.. t earnings pay foreign debt interest in. 16 OECD, see Organisation for Economic Co.operation geothermal energy in. 13. 148. 149 and Development hydroelearb and orrigasion sew:yobs in. 65

263 (248) Index Philippines (conform!) Reagan. President Ronald. 15. 103. 185. 187 maternity benefits re eel in. 33 Renault. 165 medical care in. 203 renewable energy nuclear power plans scrapped in. 130 development of. 136-56 photnvolthic negotiations. 153 locally available. 208 as reyeyclable paper market. 102 nonnuclear sources. 132 rice production system in. 201 resources. 4. 19. 208 transport in small vans in. 200 share of world energy. 137 wood exports. 16. 85 substitute for oil, 40-41. 199 woofired electricity in. 144 set also wind power. fuelwoodegeothermal energy. World Bank watershed project in. 90 and sold cells phosphate. 179. 180 reproductive behavior. isfamily planning photovoltaic solar energy, set solar cells resource accounting. 195-96. 198 Physical Quality of Life Index (PQM). 198 Resource Conservation Act of 1977. 58. 196 plantations. we tree plantations resource depletion, effect on debt, 1, 16. 189 Poland resource stocks, monitored at global level, 195 acid rain effect in. 10, 79, 80 retrofitting of buildings, 13, 40, 45-46 coalburning power planes in. 14 "reverse vending Machine." 108 embargo against, 1B5 Reykjavik (Iceland). heat from geothermal fields. 147 external debt of, 194 Rice. Andrew, viii gasoline rationing in. 51. 171 Rockefeller Brothers Fund, xiii iron and steel recycling in. 110 Rockefeller, David. xiii natural gas substituted for oil in, 42 Rockefeller. Larry, xiii nuc.car program in. 128 RockefellerWintfirop Trust, xiii United States grain exports to, 185 Rocky Mountain Institute. xtv Puleraym P . 59 Romania. pet..ot production declining in. 42 pollution control. *2. 148 Roosevelt, Ps .ent Franklin D . 70 population. 2. 3, 4-5, 20-55. 198 Rosenson, Ronald, 101 arithmetic, 20-23 rotating crops, soil erosion prevention measure, 14. assessment based on Global MO, 31 71 declining living standards and, 20. 29, 197, 201-02 row crops, 14, 55, 156 densiiy and farming hilly land, 54 Royal Forest Service (Thailand). 77 and economic growth, 5.20. 27. 194, 201 -02 rubber. 8, 77, 161 and food output, 175 rural sector. 132. 156. 172, 190-91 And polities, 20. 25. 34, 194 and soil erosion, set soil erosion Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMHD), and sustainability. 3 photovoltaic power plant, 152 tinged Naimoli Fund for Populaiion Adivirics safety. nuclear power problem, 116 report. xi Sahel region (Africa). agroforestry in. 88 popularion/ferithzer and land link. 17840 Santiago (Chile). kerosene price in. 41 population/resource projections. 29-31, 197 Saudi Arabia Portugal energy production in, 95 food importer. 134 fertilizer production in, 180 population stabilization possible in. 23 food importer. 184 %aye fiver recovery leader. 98 oil depletion psychology of, 50 potash. 64. 179 as oil producer, 6.49, 50 poyertr. Bangladesh's definition of, 198 as OPEC member, 50 Power Reactor Demonstration Project (United States). Solera* photovoltaic electricity project in, 151 116 Scandinavia President's Council (South Africa). 178 acidification of lakes in. 79 Prince Edward Island. wood heating replaung oil. 141 cooperative waste exchange tn. 101 Pringle, 35 see also individual countries Proctor and Gamble. 143 Schiller. John M.. 56 and soil erosion, 53 Senn Paper Company. 142 Producroduceicit% may. Index, of actual and potential coop yields. scrap paper. building world markets for, 114 70 Seabrook utility plants, 125 Project Independence. 117-18 Sen, Amartya, 189 protectionist trade measures. 19, 86 Seoul, air pollution in, 172 Public Service Electric and Gas Company of New service stations, decrease In with oil price increase. 12 jersey. 123 shale deposit, oil from, 166 politic 'Tampon. 52. 172. 200 ShethCanada. pelletmaking plants in Pacific countries. puipniill wastes, use of, 141 14 shelterbelos, to prevent soil erosion. 71 rail system. sersus automobile, 51. 173 shipping, and oil price increase, 12 rangeland. see grassland Shoreham nuclear plant. financing of, 124-25 renclable materials. internanonal wade in, 96 shrublands, defined, 75 recycling, 19.94.114 Siberia. 10. 13. 92 advantages of, 95-96. 113 silicon, in solar pliotovoltAie cells, 149 aluminum, xiii, 4, 13, 95-96, 104 -05, 197 Singapore, 24, SS. 172 glass. see glass Sivard. Ruth Leger. 207 iron and steel, 13, 95-96, 197 Sizewell Inquiry (United Kingdom), 128 paper mills and. 102-03 Sky Harbor Airport, photovoltaic electricity for. 151 replaces throwaways. 4, 114. 197 smokestack scrubbers. 40.80 scrap paper, 13, 97-104, 197 social foresiry program, 87 sustainable development strategy. 2-3. 197 Soedjatmoko, 208 voluntary efforts al. 96 soil conservation, 2-3, 53-73. 180-81 refr.gerators. 46. 103, 185. 187 Soil Conservation Service, history of, 55. 58. 70. 180

264 Index (249) Soil Conservation Society of Ammo.. 72 fallowed land reduced in. 56 soil depletion. 5. 9. 177 farm equipment and sod erosion in. 59 soil erosion. 18 fertilize' production in. 180 agronomic deficit of 189 food output fallen behind demand in. 175 assessment needed. xvi. 70. 195 forests of. 97 causes of, 54-57 gas price set by government. 173 costs of. 53, 64-67. 71. 196 geothermal heating in. 147-48 extent of.xvi.5.64 gram imports from United States in. 175. 185. and external debt, 72 205 and fallosving, see fallow land iron and steel recycling in. 105 and food production, Mi. 9. 177 irrigation canals in. 200 governmental role in reversing. am 69. 71. 196 militarily strong. 205 and land productivity. 2. 9-10. 63-65. 71. 72.84 minimum tillage in. 69 and navigability loss. 66 natural gas in. 4'2.50 and new soil formation, 196 nuclear power in. 41. 48. 116-19. 123. 126. 128-29 nutrient loss. 62-64 "nuckar winter" research of, 2 and population_growt h. am 20 od dependence in. 37. 46-47. 4 8 prevention of. 54-4. 7 od production113,11. 49-50 and siltation, 57, 66.67.84 p-troteum production leveling off in. 41. 42 and terracing. 54. 6 9. 71 population growth rate in 21.23, 24. 209 United Nations projections of. 31. 196 Sabena, see Siberia in United States. 9. 14. 30. 72. 196 soil erosion estimates for, 59-00 worldwide. xvi, 10, 71 -73. 196 solar cell industry in, 149-50 soil formation and soil toss reports. xvi. 195-96 substitution for oil by Duties' power in. 48 sml mining. 2.9 -10. 71. 185. 195 sulfur dioxide emissions in. 80 solar wind machines erected in. 137 cells. xvi. 134. 136. 149-54 wood supply of, 91-92 collectors. xvi. 4. 200 soybeans. 64. 182, 183. 184. 187 design. 154 Spain electrical system, 150-51 aluminum production in. 105 equipment sales. 13 iron and steel recycling in. 109 tax credits. 151 Iron and steel scrap user. 114 water heaters. 13, 46. 137. 154, 200. 208 nuclear power future insecure in. 126 solar thermal electricity generation, 154 photos Mime demonstration projects. 152 Soleras, photovoltaic project in Saudi Amiga. 151 population stabilization possible in. '23 solid waste disposal. 95. 96. 99-100 solar cell industry in. ISO source separation. 101-02 Spears John. 89 South Africa corporation.orporation. expor photovoltaic manufacturing coal liquefaction in. 38, 43. 166 equipment. 153 income distribution in. 204 Sri Lanka irrigation sites reduced in. 178 income distribution moo in. 202 nuclear power plants in. 130 kerosene price subsidised by gasoline. 44 population explosion in. 203 no income tax deductions for children. 33 President's Council in. 178 sieriluanon payments in. 33 water scarcity in. 178 State, U.S Department of. 30. 185 South America. closed forest region m. 75 State of Food and Agriculture. xi-xis South Carolina, NUCOR steel mill in. 110 Szon of Me Enerromme1982. xv South Korea. 25 Stale of Indues Envtronnteni.1982. xv automobile assembly in. 160 Skis,of Me World's Children.xv birth rates low in. 24 Staten Island. Proctor and Gamble wootlfired piano, educational deductions for two children in. 33 143 family planning in. 24. 33 steel industry food importer. 184 charcoal used in. 78 forestry program in. 5, 90.99. 155, 196. 199 energy required for, 95 gasoline tax in, 44 higher od prices and. 8, 161 income tax deductions for two children in. 33 scrap use us, 109-10 land redistribution in. 202 sterilization, set family planning maternity helical* restricted in. 33 stoves, for charcoal burning. 82.'200 nuclear power plants in. 130 strip cropping. sod erosion provenston measure, 55. pollution accounting system. 196 recycle scrap in. 13 subsoil. cost of tillage on, 62 waste paper in. 13. 98-99, 101. 102, 113 Sudan. agroforestry in, 88 Southest Asia soutareanr. alcohol distilled from for fuel, see aciekuseeptible soils. 82 alcohol-based fuel lot es ts. 78-79 sulfur dioxide. threat to forests. 74, 80. 82 Southern California Edison Company. 152 Sumatra. 13, 77 Southern lows Conservancy District, soil erosion supertankers, and Aims of oil price increase. 12 study. 63-64 sustainabitity, 1.-3. 11.90 -94. 197, 198 Soviet Union Sweden agricultural outpui in. 5. 175 automobiles in, 38, 172 aluminum production in. 15, 105 building codes. 40 Asian population expanding in, 23 commuter deposit laws in. 108 automobile in. 159 energy efficiency code in. 40 coal production in. 42. 46 hazardous waste exchange in. 101 cropland area in, 59-60 iron and steel collection policies in. 112 demilitarization in, 204 nuclear industry in. 126. 128 (Ryland farming in. 56.60, 177 oil imports high in, 141

265 (250) Index

Sweden levanawd) ICI tans, 109 paper companies use energy from wood residues in. Tokyo, waste paper recycling. 100 142 we also japan "reverse vending machine" in, xvi, 108 topsoil depletion, we soil erosion scrap export limits in. 114 topsoil re serves, in United States. 9 solar cell industry in. 150 transportation thermal efficiency, of buildings standard in. 4546 aluminum use results in cost saving. 104 wind (arm in. 137, 140 elect on recycling. 102 wood use in, 141 employment increase, 201 Switzerland planning, 203 German waste exchange used in, 101 public transport, we public transport food importer, 184 substitution for oil difficult in. 40 nuclear industry in. 126-28 Transportation. U.S. Department of. 161 zero population growth in, 22 tree plantaiions.90-93, 141 synfu 30. 136. 157. see also alcohol as automotive tree planting. xvi. 141, ser also tropical forests fuelel s. irerbarvesimg techniques. 144-45 synthetic fibers, substituted for natural ones. 7 Tregubov, P.S.. 60 Synthetic Fuels Corporation (United Statesf. 166 tropical forests clearing of, 10. 11, 14 Taiwan cropland conversion of. 77 land redistribution in. 202 deforesiaiion of. 10, 74. 78 lower birth rates in, 24 FAO assessment of. 78 nuclear power plants in. 190 global commitment to. 94 Tanzania. family planning measures in 33 hardwood in, 16, 84 tar sands, 42 166 tree plan Tasmania, aluminum production in, 106 plantations of trees. 93 tax credits. 33. 140 we also family planning tropical soils, fragility of, 56, 65, 73 Tennessee. soil erosion in, 60 Tunisian village. photovoltaic system pumps water. Tennessee Valley, aluminum recycling in. 105 154 Tennes3 see Valley Authority. nuclear power cost. 121. Turkey 12 export earnings pay foreign debt interest in. 16 leaning. We Soli erosion small vans for transport in, 200 Texas cotton grown on desurfaced sod tn. 62 Ueda City, Japan, 100-01 dryland farming in, 15. 177 Ultrasystems. Inc.. electric power plants run on forest wind erosion in. 56 residue, 142 Thailand Ulrich, Dr. Bernhard, 81 economic value of ecologic restoration in, 89 underground aquifier, exhaustion of, 15 family planning in. xvi, 25. 33 unemplojtment, 1, 12, 161, 198-201. steals* forest losses in. 77 employment geothermal water for cooking WI, 146 United Kingdom recyclable paper market in. 102 aluminum production in. 105 rice farming in, 56 American designed lightwater nuclear plants in, wood exports. 85 121 World Bank watershed project in. 90 aosion.obik in. 160, 162-65 Third World benefited from higher oil prices in. 11 agricultural undertnvestment by. 176, 178 bicycle sales exceed auto sales in, 13 air pollution in. 172 gasoline tax high in. 44 automobile ownership in, 157. 159. 160. 169, 171 insulation grants sn. 46 commodity export of. 16 nuclear power in. 41. 116-18. 121, 123, 126-28 development strategies tn, 203-09 oil consumption reduced in. 37,47 external debt in, I. 16-18. 157. 191 - 98.204. we alto oil exporter, 39 World Bank oil production decline in, 50 family planning services lacking in, 209 solar cell industry in. 150 fed by North American grain. 6. 182 sulfur dioxide emissions in, 80 food deficit In. 16. 190 unemployment high in. 197-98 forests in. 14. 196 wind farm in. 13T-140 fuelwood used for cooking fuel in. 14. 141 zero population growth in, 23 grasslands in. 196 United Nations hydropower in. 41 community forestry projects of. 94 nuclear power in, 115. 130-32.wealso individual population/resource projections. 29 Countries study by Leonild 31 per capita income in. 190 study group on disarmament and development, 205 population pressure in. 5, 54.209 United Nations Conference on World Population, 32 renewable energy sources in. 156 United Nations Environment Program. xv. 196 resource consequences of economic activity in, 196 United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization soils in. 16. 54, 196 (FAO). ay. 14.56, 83, 85, 87, 90-92, 94,, 189 solar electricity gains for. 153 United Nations Fund for Population Activities, annual United Nations voting record of, 185 report, xiii, xv unemployment in. 198-99 United Nations International Children's Emergency waste paper recycling in, 103, 113 Fund (UNICEF), xv water resources in, 196 United Nations University, Tokyo, 208 weapon purchases in. 6.206 United States wind power ill. 200 acid rain in, 10, 79-80 wood exports. we tropical forests agricultural output value of. 15. 180 Morison. Inga. 204 aleoholfuel production in, 167 throwaway society. 114. 197 aluminum use in, 104-07

266 4 Index (25 I )

automobile fuel efficient! standards in. 314-89 University of London. 121 automobile in. 35-36. 157-73 University of Nebraska. 71 automobile industry employment decline. 12. 203 University of Sussex. 121 banks and Third World deft problems, 17 University of Vermont. Camels /lump research on beef imports in. 10.30. 77-78 and rain. 79-81 beverage containers in. 108. 113 Urals (USSR). minimum tillage in. 69 bicycle *ales exceed auto sales in. 1$ urban traffic congestion. 169. 171-72 coal liquefaction costs in. SI Uruguay. *done in birth rate, 26 coal,burning power plants in. 14 Utah, oil shale deposits in. 167 concessiont food programs in. 191 utilities. financial health of. 41. 123-24 corn crop in. 184 utility) companies. and nuclear power guarantees. crop surplus in. 5-6 -17 eropland idled in, 186 utility industry, and endsse energy efficiency. 133-34 drought in and feedramprices in.187-88 electricity needs in. 123 Venezuela export embargoes in. 8. 185 domestic price of gasoline. 50 family farm in. 183 fallowing to restore 56 farm debt in. 15.67. 181-82 food importer. 183 farm equipment and soil erosion m. 56-57 forest eleatings. 76 farm output and topsoil protection in. 156 oil prize drop unanticipated. 16 feed gram harvest declines in. 188 oil producoon fallen. 50 fertilizer expenditures in. 179-80 tar sands in. 166 forests in. 4. 97. 102 waste paper export to United States, 102 fuel efficiency rise in, 38-39. 16245 Vermont fuelwood burned in. 4. 140 Camel's Hump acid ram research. 79-81 gasoline sales decline in. 12. 16243 wood burning replaers oil. 142-44 geothes mai heat in. 147-48 Vielhues, Dieter. 122 Global 2000 report. 31 Virayaidya, Medial, 25 grain surplus m. 6. 182-84. 186 Vogelmann Hubert, 80, 82 income distribution ratio in. 202 Vohra. xi., 66. 70 interest rates in. 15-16. in also farm debt volcanoes. geothermal source. 145 intervention in famine eonditions. 1118. 191 Volga, minimum tillage in. 69 investment capital to arms-production. 204-05 Volkswagen Rabbit. 165 investment in Amazon Basin. 13 iron and steel recycling in. 100-11 wage demands, rising with higher energy costs. 7 irrigation canals tn. 200 Wairakei (New Zealand). geothermal reservoir. 147 land redistObution under Homestead Act. 203 Well Street _lomat 27. 97 lighwater reactor protect. 129 Wallace. Henry. 70 materials recycling in. 200-01 Washington Water Power Company, 143 military expenditures of, 205 waste disposal. 98-104, 113-14 natural gas price control in. 104 nuclear power problem. 116, 129-30. 133 nuclear power in. '1. 116-119. 123-25. 132 paper recycling as Landfill alternative. 99 oil and grair arisons in, 11 waste paper. 98-104 oil eonsump in on. 38 water oil imports e. astically. 133 competition For, 20. 177, 189 oil production in, 12. 48-49 demands exceed supply, 8, 18. 177-78. 195 oil shale in. 51. 166 inadequate U.S. projections on. 80. 195 population growth rate In. 23. 24, 209 pollution of 196 Pulp and paper industry in. 142 renewable energy for pumping. 147. 153 rangeland condition of in. 10 surface protected from impurities in geothermal recoverable ferrous scrap in, 110-11 water. 148 reduced tillage in. 72 and water table declines, 2. 15. 177. 195 renewable energy third party developers in. 154-55 water pumping. photovoltaic system, 153-54 scrap export in, 111-12 watersned siltation rate. 85, 66, 90 service stations numbers decline in. 12. 162 Weak,. Edward. 196 silicon cell production in. 151 Welsh. Professor David. 204 soil erosion. we sod erosion West German), solar tell industry in, 149-50. 153 acid rain effect in. 10, 79-80 steel industry in. 111. 181 aluminum production in, 104 tax credit for solar heating in. 48, 155 annual economic growth. 28 tax cuts in, 205 automobiles in, 11 38, 165 topsoil reserves in, 9 bicycle sales exceed auto sales in. 11 unemployment in, 1 I. 141. 198-99 coalburning power plaits in. 14. 121 utilities using wind energy research programs in. Global 2ooa study, in, 31 138-39 iron and steel recyeling in. 109-10 waste paper user. 101-04 legisistitm on sulfur emissions in. 82 wind machines in. 137, 154 lighowater reactor project with Japan. 129 wood exports. 92 natural gas substituted for oil in. 42 wood for heating homes iti. 41 nuclear power in. 41. 116. 117. 121-123. 128. 129 wood fuel electricity generation in. 141 photovoltaic demonstration projects in. 152 United States Government population growth in, 23, 28 departments nf. err Agency for International solar cell industry in. 150 Development. Agriculture. Council on waste exchange in. 101 Environmental Quality. Energy, Forest Service. wind machines erected tn. 137 Transportation wheat United States Windpower Company. 138 effect of soil erosion on. 63 University of Capesown. 20$ produced yy U.S.. 65, 182

267 (252) Index wholettee hart s g. 1 f 1-14 Egtplicin garbage collection project. 103 wind decimal generation. mi. 4. 16, v.aiSU %Intl GNP decline due to population pressure. 28-29 fonts hydropower plant detelopment supported. 41 wind energy tax credits. 154 Indonesian wood protesting report. 86 wind farms. 4. 137-40. 133 Nigerian soil fallow. 36 windgenermors. mature wham b. end of ennui.. paper rectcling project en Lippt. 103 155 Paper Industries Corporation of the Philippines wind power. mi. 113-54 {MOP} program, 89 goternment support 140 population projections. 30 an %mid. 200 Men(' trend toward militarization. 208 wind pumps. history of. 137-18 soil moron expenditures required. 71 windIMAM!so 140 tulrSaltatan Africa decline in using standards. 29 wind turbine performance. 4. 137-38. 158 swim purchase in Pakistan. 203 women watershed prince non efforts. 90 employment opportunities for and popula Woad Ikbe Talks, 17 subtlisaturn. 23 World Depelopmene Report, xv social and icon independence and fen rites World 1.0eiolest Oteitemi. xv decline. 23 world exports. no growth in eighties. 17 wood %odd Fertilit. Suryny desired size, 26, 32 burning regulations. 145 world financial serum. and United States deficit. for cooking. we Melt...mil 2181-07 depletion of and sistraitiabiloy. 2 twild food demand. mi. 1. 7. 53. 163 feedstock fur chemical. pioduc , 96 Build Food Programme. 191-92 for fuel. in fuelwood maid grain surplus. U S Department of Agriculture lot shied Amer gt pruritic non. 19. 144 mtscalculat 00000 . 184 pimmting 01. flit. 145 timid Maar, and Soma Expenditures. 207 I ec.41able material.. 95-96 world :Wilco.. expenditures. 205-08 resurgence of. 140-45 world population growth. slowing. 20-21 thoriages of, 83 world trade. restrictions on. 19 ay mb.rittor for oil. 40. 41. 96 Worldwarch institute giantism 441%1. 10 ongoing research. xt used Mr liapei 97-98 ram um Cond.' planning. 33 waste, 4. 140 protection of 1983 nuclear generating capacity. 3 woad - burning boilers. 145 publications ul. wood cookstines. 1St 142. 145 Wwitting. oil shale deposits in. 166 wood pellets. minium-414 use of. 144 wood,botler.mielustrial. pollution control for. 126 Yashuliova, S.. 39 wooded lands. extent Of. 64 Yellow River Consertancy Commission (China). 37 "World Aluminum Industry Stuth." b. World Bank. Yellow Riser. 37 -58. 60 109 Yugosla.ia %odd Bank gas rationing in. 51. 171 aluminum ling ignored. 100 non and steel recycling in. 110 Attica's economic outlook anal.sis 27 casbtrre program, comment. 90 Zaire. 77 c rimming. former. project.. 94 I.ebaleen. Egyptian garbage collectors. 103 conchrions for (maimed financing. 52 zero population growth. 20-23. 208-09

268