BELARUS choices for the future NATIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2000 This Report hos been produced with tbe organisational and technical support of the UN/UNDP Office in Belarus under the auspices of tbe UNDP project BYE/96/004 Streng- thening tbe System to Prepare National Human Development Reports in the Republic of Belarus». The Report has been compiled by the national experts - economists, sociologists, political scientists, jurists and environmentalists. The views expressed in this publication are exclusive- ly those of the authors and are not necessarily shared by the United Nations, the UN Develop- ment Programme, or tbe organisations with which the authors are affiliated, Tbe authors assume full responsibility for the opinions expressed in this document and the accuracy of tbe data presented in it. This edition is not protected by copyright and may be reproduced without the prior permission of UNDP, providing that the source is acknowledged. Comments and further information can be obtained at the following address: United Nations Office in the Republic of Belarus: 17, Kirov Street, sixth floor 220 000 Minsk, Belarus Tel: (017)2278149 Fax:(017)2260340 E-mail: [email protected] WWW Home Page: http:/www.un.rninsk.by Production and layout: Medium Company Ul Kalinovskogo 53/2 Minsk, Belarus Tel/fax: (017)2653875 E-mail: [email protected] ht tp:/www.rnedium.nsys.by ISBN 985-6644-02-X Design and publishing team: Design: Kalenik, V .L. Style editors (Russian): Gorelik, E. P., Khvoinizkiy, E.G. Computer layout: Gorbacheva, T .V. English translation: Alexander Piskounov English proof-reading: Brian Anderson Foreword Humanity is entering the 21st century, as globalisation is opening new avenues for human development. Every country chooses its own human development path in the new millenium. In Belarus, the Council of Ministers has enacted the Key Objectives of Socio-Economic develop- ment up until 2010. A Socio-economic Development Programme for 2001-2005 is being developed in line with this document. The programme should become an important landmark in the nation's progress towards the ultimate goal of its socio-economic advancement - improving people's health and living standards through balanced and sustainable economic growth, productive employment and higher levels of social support, approaching the international standards. The key objectives set by the Socio-economic Development Programme for 2001 -2005 are as follows: • To create opportunities for sustainable socio-economic development through greater ef- ficiency and better performance of the manufacturing sector; • To increase popular access to goods and services; • To develop the industrial and social infrastructure; • To create a favourable living environment. While working on the nation's development strategy, the government is making every effort to consider the opinions of various social groups. The present Report is an indication of this approach. The Report has been produced by a team of independent experts, who have expressed their own opinions on the country's socio-economic situation and future develop- ment. Their views, therefore, can differ greatly from those of the government, and may not coin- cide with the positions held by the organisations to which they are affiliated. We nevertheless believe that a vivid discussion of human development issues can help resolve many of the nation's problems, promote cohesion within it, and ultimately lead the country towards sus- tainable development in the 21st century. Anatoly Bogdanovich - Project Manager Leonid Zaiko - Scientific Editor Alexei Ilnitsky - Project Coordinator (UNDP Belarus) On-chapter contributors: Anatoly Bogdanovich Leonid Zaiko Oleg Bazhanov Galina Gasiuk Valery Karbalevich Oleg Manayev Yevgeny Medvedev Antonina Morova Svetlana Naumova Irina Novikova Victor Pinigin Yaroslav Romanchuk Ivan Udovenko Olga Shimova Table of contents Introduction (Leonid Zaiko) 8 Chapter 1. Issues of socio-economic development 11 At the dawn of the century and millennium (Anatoly Bogdanovich) 11 A decade of transformation and choice of the nation's socio-economic development path (Yaroslav Romanchuk) 15 Government and civil society - a case for dialogue and mutual responsibility (Valery Karbalevich) 22 The 21st century - new challenges for Belarus (Irina Novikova) 26 Chapter 2. Human development indicators - dynamic and impact 31 Demographic changes and quality of life (Ivan Udovenko) 31 The economic environment - the role of the institutions (Victor Pinigin) 35 Sector dynamics and perfomance (Yevgeny Medvedev) 39 Social policy - tradition and systemic changes (Antonina Morova) 44 Role of science and culture in ostering social changes (Ivan Udovenko) 50 Youth culture (Oleg Manayev) 54 Gender aspects of the Belarusian lifestyle (Svetlana Naumova) 61 The natural and living environments (Olga Shimova) 66 Personal security and crime control (Oleg Bazhanov) 72 Chapter 3. Entering the path of globalisation and integration 78 Belarus and a united Europe (Irina Novikova) 78 A strategy to enter the world community (Leonid Zaiko) 81 Belarus and Russia in the new century (Anatoly Bogdanovich) 85 Chapter 4. Choices for Belarus 88 Stability and reform - a vision for the future (Victor Pinigin) A strategy for Belarus - a social and humanitarian alternative for the next century (Leonid Zaiko) 92 Appendix 112 Economy and society as portrayed by the human development indicators (Galina Gasiuk) 112 List of boxes, figures and tables BOXES 1.1 Sustainable socio-economic development reflecting local conditions and international experience - a strategic choice for Belarus 12 1.2 Market changes in Belarus - myths and reality 13 1.3 Projections for the next five-year period 15 2.1 Reasons for the demographic crisis in Belarus 33 2.2 The need for a new demographic policy in Belarus 34 2.3 Privatisation - lessons for Belarus 37 2.4 Belarusian enterprises are facing financial difficulties 42 2.5 Obstacles to saving 43 2.6 European integration models 49 2.7 Modern cultural policies 52 2.8 Penalties in the new Criminal Code 74 2.9 Courts of the peace 75 3.1 Soviet heritage in Belarus 78 3.2 The balance sheet of the transition period 79 4.1 Where do our opportunities lie? 89 4.2 A working state - the Belarusian model 90 FIGURES 1.1 Human development index and its components, 1990-1999- 14 1.2 Human development index for Belarus and the neighbouring states in 1990,1997 and 1998. 14 1.3 Macrocconomic indicators, 1991-1999. 16 1.4 Agricultural output as % of 1990 18 1.5 Real GDP per capita in 1991 and 1997 by country (as % of the United States) 29 2.1 Births and deaths 33 2.2 Wage statistics for Belarus 38 2.3 Production indices by sector by volume (1995 prices) as % of the previous year 40 2.4 Share of loss-making enterprises in 1999 as % of total 41 2.5 Investments in non-manufacturing and manufacturing sectors 43 2.6 Employment trends in science and research 5^ 2.7 Release of atmospheric pollutants 68 2.8 Mean annual number of recorded crimes from 19961 to 1999, by decades 73 2.9 Crime dynamic, 1991-1999 73 2.10Victimsofviolemcrime, 1993-1999 74 3.1 European trade partners of Belarus in 19995 and 1999 ranked by export share, % 80 3.2 Export outside the CIS by region in 1999, as % of total 80 3.3 National self-identification of the Belarusians 82 3.4 The Western civilisation as viewed by the Belarusian people S3 3.5 The citizen of which country do you consider yourself to be? 84 6 1.1 Direct foreign investments 1J TABLES 1.2 Progress of privatisation, 1991-1999 18 1.3 Agricultural output by product type in public and private sector farms, 1990-1999, thousands of tonnes 19 1.4 Social indicators, 1990-1999 21 1.5 Household incomes and expenditures, 1990-1999, % 22 2.1 Average life expectancy at birth 31 2.2 Mortality by type, thousands 32 2.3 Private enterprise development 38 2.4 Debt incoming to debt outstanding ratio, % 40 2.5 Enterprise solvency 41 2.6 National wealth (excluding land, mineral resources and forests) at December 31 44 27 Public spending as % of GDP 44 2.8 Distribution of subsidies social bcnefits(quintile group ranking by the total amount of subsidies social benefits received) 45 2.9 Social development indicators in Belarus in relation to critical levels 46 2.10 Wage dynamic in Russia and Belaus, 1990-1999 47 2.11 Pension support indicators 48 2.12 Development of cultural institutions 53 2.13 Sociological characteristics of different age groups, % 56-57 2.14Level of trust in key social institutions 58 2.15 Attitude of young people to leading youth associations, % 59 2.16 Damage caused by atmospheric and water pollution relative to GDP JO 4.1 Would you like to live as in...?, % 94 4.2 Which of the following statements do you support the most?, % 95 7 Introduction The National Human Development Report-2000 has a real chance of entering history simply because of the year in which it was published. Many of our contemporaries may say: "Fair enough - the change in millennia does not happen very often". But joking aside, Belarus is in many ways fortunate to live at the turn of a new era. The Socialist experiment is over, but what new type of society is coming to replace it? What should be done in the coming years, and what should not? Throughout history, people have been asking very similar questions. Philosophers insist that it is just the answers that are changing. Perhaps the countries of North America and Western Europe that constitute the 'golden billion' are now in a better position than others. They are enjoying prosperity and economic stability. It will be a long time before Belarus can achieve the same - not before the mid- dle of the 21st century at the very best. This raises one natural question - is it worthwhile for Belarus to repeat the historical evolution of the West, or is there a unique path (hat it should follow to become a role model for the rest? A team of national experts has come together to find answers to these questions and to assess the outlooks for Belarus.