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Children of Austerity CHILDREN OF AUSTERITY Children of Austerity Impact of the Great Recession on Child Poverty in Rich Countries Edited by BEA CANTILLON, YEKATERINA CHZHEN, SUDHANSHU HANDA, AND BRIAN NOLAN Published by The United Nations Children’s Fund and Oxford University Press 1 3 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © UNICEF 2017 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First Edition published in 2017 Impression: 1 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Control Number: 2016950867 ISBN 978–0–19–879796–8 Printed in Great Britain by Clays Ltd, St Ives plc Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city, or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by UNICEF in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of UNICEF. Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables xiii List of Contributors xv 1. Introduction: Scope and Methods 1 Yekaterina Chzhen, Sudhanshu Handa, Bea Cantillon, and Brian Nolan 2. Impact of the Economic Crisis on Children in Rich Countries 8 Yekaterina Chzhen, Brian Nolan, Bea Cantillon, and Sudhanshu Handa 3. Belgium: Creeping Vulnerability of Children 30 Julie Vinck, Wim Van Lancker, and Bea Cantillon 4. Child Poverty during the Recession in Germany 56 Thomas Bahle and Peter Krause 5. The Impact of the Great Recession on Child Poverty in Greece 94 Manos Matsaganis 6. Recession, Recovery, and Regime Change: Effects on Child Poverty in Hungary 118 András Gábos and István György Tóth 7. Children of the Celtic Tiger during the Economic Crisis: Ireland 146 Brian Nolan and Bertrand Maître 8. The Impact of the Great Recession on Child Poverty: The Case of Italy 170 Luisa Natali and Chiara Saraceno 9. The Recession and the Policy Response for Child Poverty in Japan 191 Aya K. Abe 10. Growing up in Poverty: Children and the Great Recession in Spain 219 Sara Ayllón 11. Sweden: Child Poverty during Two Recessions 242 Jan O. Jonsson and Carina Mood vi Contents 12. Impact of the Recession on Children in the United Kingdom 275 Jonathan Bradshaw, Yekaterina Chzhen, and Gill Main 13. USA Child Poverty: The Impact of the Great Recession 297 Christopher Wimer and Timothy M. Smeeding 14. Learning the Lessons: Enhancing Capacity to Protect Children 320 Brian Nolan, Bea Cantillon, Sudhanshu Handa, and Yekaterina Chzhen Index 335 List of Figures 2.1. Annual economic growth (real GDP per capita, annual %) 10 2.2. Real GDP per capita growth (%) peak to trough (2007–2014) 11 2.3. Real GDP per capita (2007=100) 12 2.4. Unemployment rates (2007–2014) 14 2.5. Child poverty rates (2008–2014) in 31 European countries 17 2.6. In-work poverty rates among households with children (2008–2014) in 31 European countries 18 2.7. Proportion of children living in low work intensity households (2008–2014) in 31 European countries 19 2.8. Proportion of children living in materially deprived households (2008–2014) in 31 European countries 21 2.9. Share of children who cannot invite friends round to play from time to time (2009 and 2014) in 27 European countries 22 2.10. Social protection benefits spending as a share of GDP (2005–2013) in 41 countries 24 2.11. Changes in spending on family related benefits as a share of total social protection spending (2005–2013) in 32 countries 25 2.12. Per cent changes in real per capita spending on old age and family benefits (2008–2013) in 32 countries 26 2.13. Changes in effectiveness of social transfers to reduce child and elderly poverty (2008–2014) in 31 countries 27 3.1. Quarterly GDP growth rate (left axis) and GDP relative to 2010 level (right axis), Belgium (2000–2015) 32 3.2. Quarterly unemployment rate, Belgium and neighbouring countries (2005–2015) 33 3.3. Percentage point change in employment rates by age and education, Belgium and neighbouring countries (2008–2010) 34 3.4. Relative poverty risk in Belgium, before, during, and after the crisis (income years 2005–2013) 35 3.5. Anchored poverty risk in Belgium, before, during, and after the crisis (income years 2005–2013) 35 3.6. Severe material deprivation in Belgium, before, during, and after the crisis (survey years 2006–2014) 36 3.7. Child poverty risk by household work intensity, Belgium and neighbouring countries (income year 2013) 39 viii List of Figures 3.8. Share of children and share of poor children by family characteristics: single parents, non-EU household, and highest educational level of the parents, Belgium (2014) 42 3.9. Children living in single-parent households (left panel) and non-EU households (right panel): share and poverty risks over household work intensity, Belgium (income year 2013) 44 3.10. Children living in households with low, medium, or high-skilled parents: share and poverty risk over work intensity, Belgium (2013) 44 3.11. Social spending on active-age persons (under 65) as a percentage of GDP, functional distribution, Belgium (1985–2011) 45 3.12. Absolute child poverty reduction by transfers (excluding pensions), VLWI households, Belgium (income year 2009), per cent 50 4.1. Changes in GDP, Germany (1991–2015) 58 4.2. Unemployment rates, Germany (1993–2014) 59 4.3. GDP, government debt, and social expenditure, Germany (1995–2014) 60 4.4. Impact of short-term work programme, Germany (2005–2013) 62 4.5. Poverty rates, Germany (1994–2013) 63 4.6. (a–d). Trends in income distribution in Germany before, during, and after the Great Recession 64 4.7. Trends in median disposable income and poverty rates, Germany (2001–2013) 66 4.8. Poverty gaps, Germany (2001–2013) 67 6.1. GDP growth and unemployment levels by gender, Hungary (2000–2014) 120 6.2. Development of net and gross real incomes in Hungary (2000–2014, quarterly, as a per cent of the previous year) 121 6.3. Employment rates by gender and education in Hungary (1993–2013) (per cent of population aged 15–64) 122 6.4. At-risk-of-poverty rate among children in Hungary and in the EU (2005–2014), per cent 130 6.5. At-risk-of-poverty rate anchored in 2008 among children in Hungary and in the new EU Member States (2008–2014), per cent 132 6.6. Severe material deprivation rate among children in Hungary and in the EU (2005–2014), per cent 132 6.7. Share of children (left axis) and at-risk-of-poverty rate (right axis) among children by household work-intensity level in Hungary (2005–2014), per cent 136 6.8. Poverty reduction index of social transfers (excluding pensions) among children, Hungary, EU-27, and NMS-12 (2005–2014), per cent 139 6.9. Change in incidence of family allowances over time in Hungary (1992–2014) (share of total family allowances received by the various quintiles, based on person equivalent household incomes), per cent 140 List of Figures ix 6.10. Change in incidence of maternity benefits over time in Hungary (1992–2014) (share of total family allowances received by the various quintiles based on person equivalent household incomes), per cent 141 7.1. Percentage of persons below 60 per cent of median disposable income, by age, Ireland (2007–2014) 150 7.2. Percentage of persons below ‘anchored’ threshold (60 per cent of 2008 median disposable income, adjusted for changes in consumer prices), by age, Ireland (2008–2013) 150 7.3. Percentage of persons reporting material deprivation, by age, Ireland (2007–2014) 158 7.4. Impact of direct tax increases and social welfare reductions on household disposable income, by quintile, Ireland (2008–2012), per cent 163 8.1. Trends in child (0–17) poverty by different measures 2008–2013/2014 175 8.2. Trends in child (0–17) absolute poverty by group (2008–2013) 179 9.1. GDP growth, Japan (1980–2016), per cent 193 9.2. Number of workers by type of employment (Seiki/Hiseiki) (1985–2014) (100,000 persons) 194 9.3. Unemployment rate, Japan, by age (2006–2015), per cent 196 9.4.
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