Amity Journal of Commerce and Financial Review S P Singh

Impact of Organized in Changing Perspective of Unorganized Retail Sector in

SP Singh1 Abstract The retail sector in the current scenario is an emerging part of the Indian economy. The retail revolution has brought many changes and has also opened the door for many players in India and abroad. Indian market has the capacity to absorb a lot of retail players as a small proportion of the pie is still being organized. The retail sector has expanded significantly in recent years. In India, the organized retail sector has only a share of approximately three percent of the overall retail sector, while the largest chunk is doing the unorganized sector. A number of studies show that the organized sector posed a threat to the unorganized sector that is facing a strong degree of organized retail industry rivalry. The organized sector, on the other hand, is a major influence and impact on the unorganized sector. This paper is a humble effort to examine effects of organized retail industry from the various aspects and open areas for further study on the unorganized retail sector.

Keywords: Indian retail market, organized and un-organized retail

1. Indian Retail Market - An Overview:

The Indian retail market is expected to rise from US$790bn in financial year 2019 to US$1400bn by financial year 2024. Traditionally, retail has been a big sector that employs millions of people in India. Retailing in India accounts for over 10% of country’s GDP and 8% of total employment. The unorganized retail sector dominates the Indian retail market; it forms around 93% of the total Indian retail market. The unorganized retail form is characterized by stores owned by a single – family, specific product selling shops, e.g. kirana stores, medicines shops etc.

Organized versus Unorganized Retail

In the developed economies, the organized retail constitutes about 75 to 80 percent of the total retail, while in developing economies the unorganized retail dominates the retail sector. There is big difference in organized retail proportion from 1 percent in Pakistan and 4 percent in India to 36 percent in Brazil and 55 percent in Malaysia (Table – 1). In developed countries the retail outlets like , supermarkets,

1 Assistant Professor, Head, Computer Science Department, Govt. P.G. College, Noida, G. B. Nagar, U.P. 57 | P a g e Volume 2, Issue 2, 2019

Amity Journal of Commerce and Financial Review S P Singh and convenience stores are available commonly while these outlets are just introduced to developing countries. In developing countries unorganized retail continues to dominate over organized retail resulting, the wholesalers and retailers directly purchase the products from manufacturers and agricultural producers and provide them to small shops and unorganized markets. In India the retail sector is dominated by small retailers like general stores, medicine shops, cloth emporiums, shoe showrooms, – beedi centres, kirana stores, local mandi etc. which together form to which we called “unorganized retail” or traditional retail outlets. A number of integrated retailers opened in the last 3-4 years.

Table 1: Total and Share of Organized Retail Country Total Retail Sales Share of Organized Retail (US$ in Billion) (%) USA 2,983 85 Japan 1,182 66 785 20 United Kingdom 475 80 France 436 80 Germany 421 80 India 322 4 Brazil 284 36 Russia 276 33 Korea, South 201 15 Indonesia 150 30 Poland 120 20 68 40 Pakistan 67 1 Argentina 53 40 Philippines 51 35 Malaysia 34 55 Czech Republic 34 30 Vietnam 26 22 Hungary 24 30 Source: Planet Retail and Technopack Advisers Pvt. Ltd.

Table 2 gives the category wise growth of organized as well as total retail sector in India in recent years. In comparison to the growth of total retail of 11 percent compounded annually, the organized retail grew more approximately 20 percent annually. It results in the growth of share of organized retail in total retail from 3.3 per cent in 2003-04 to 4.1 per cent in 2006-07. 58 | P a g e Volume 2, Issue 2, 2019

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In India grocery and meat are the majority retailers and their proportion in 2003-04 dropped by about two-thirds to about 60% in 2006-07 (Table 2). The next important factor is apparel and shoes, which accounted for roughly 7 percent in 2003 – 2004 and it increased to 9 percent in 2006 – 07. The third largest group is non – institutional healthcare, the proportion of which dropped gradually from 9 percent in 2003 – 2004 to 8 percent in 2006 – 2007. After healthcare, the sector of home appliances, the proportion of which increased from 5 percent in 2003 – 2004 to 7 percent in 2006 – 2007. In 2006 – 2007, the category of ornaments accounted for approximately 6 percent of total retail sector in India, growing from 5 percent in 2003 – 2004.

Table 2: Category wise growth of organized as well as total retail sector in India Items 2003-04 2004-05 2005- 2006- 06 07 CAGR (%)

2004-07 India Retail (Rs. In Billion) 1. Food and grocery 7,028 7,064 7,418 8,680 7.3 2. Beverages 212 309 373 518 34.7 3.Clothing and footwear 777 993 1,036 1,356 20.4 4.Furniture, furnishing, appliances 512 656 746 986 24.4 andservices 5.Non-institutional healthcare 950 972 1,022 1,159 6.9 6. Sports goods, entertainment, 212 272 308 395 23.0 equipments and book 7. Personal care 371 433 465 617 18.5 8. Jewellery, watches, etc. 530 610 655 863 17.7 Total Retail 10,591 11,308 12,023 14,574 11.2 Organized Retail (Rs. In Billion) 1. Food and grocery 39 44 50 61 16.5 2. Beverages 11 12 13 16 14.7 3.Clothing and footwear 168 189 212 251 14.3 4.Furniture, furnishing, appliances 67 75 85 101 14.8 andservices 5.Non-institutional healthcare 14 16 19 24 20.0 6. Sports goods, entertainment, 25 33 44 63 37.0 equipments and book 7. Personal care 11 15 22 33 46.9 8. Jewellery, watches, etc. 18 24 33 49 40.5 Total Retail 350 408 479 598 19.5

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Share of Organized Retail in 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 Total Retail (%) Source: CSO, NSSO, Technopark Advisers Pvt. Ltd.

2. Objective of the study:

Retail is one of India's booming industries. But as opposed to organized retail, the share of unorganized retail is quite small. The present study is a humble attempt to study the effect of organized retail on India's unorganized retail sector and open research arenas on India's future retail trends. The Indian Retail Industry is getting more and more dynamic and is ready to compete with the international players in the near future. In the upcoming few years many international retail companies will enter into the Indian market. It will create a big competition in the market which creates lots of job opportunities and also demand of understanding consumer buying behaviour, preferences, demand and taste.

3. Research Methodology:

The present study is quantitative in nature, largely based on a country-wide survey conducted by ICRIER, dividing it into four regions, to study retail status in India and the future of unorganized retail as influenced by the organized retail. The survey was carried out by means of questionnaires, specifically designed by ICRIER for the purpose. Unorganized retailers are being researched in two ways. One is the group of unorganized retailers located near organized retail shops; these are called "treatment samples." Another is the group of those unorganized retail shopkeepers away from the organized shops; these are called "control samples." The two conducted a comparative study using different similar parameters to study the impact of organized retail. To make comparisons, tables, bar diagrams and line graphs were used.

4. Impact of Organized Retail on Indian Economy:

Since 2002 – 2003, organized retail has expanded tremendously in India, and this is correlated with economic growth and the associated increase in consumer buying capacity. Organized retail has started to reach huge market, still its proportion is tiny. With very aggressive expansion plans, most of the big market players have come into retail business. Key retailers of international market are willing to enter into Indian market, and this become possible due to change in foreign direct investment rules of the government. Organized retail has a key role during their period of high growth in 60 | P a g e Volume 2, Issue 2, 2019

Amity Journal of Commerce and Financial Review S P Singh today's developed countries. It has also contributed significantly to the development of developing countries since the early 1990s. Organized retail in poised in the near future to make a mark. The report here gives findings of unorganized retailers all – India survey on the effects of organized retailing.

India’s Planning Commission, in its Approach Paper for the Eleventh Five Year Plan, (2006, pp. 27-8) has noted: “Organized retailing brings many advantages to producers and also to urban consumers, while also providing employment of a higher quality. Organized retailing in agricultural produce can set up supply chains, give better prices to farmers for their produce and facilitate agro-processing industries. Modern retailing can bring in new technology and reduce consumer prices, thus stimulating demand and thereby providing more employment in production.”

Unorganized Market Size: The average size of the sampled traditional retail outlets was 217 sq. Ft. include storage area, garment and fashion shops with an average size of 256 sq. Ft. The size of the kirana store and general stores is commonly 216 sq. Ft. the storage area used.

Table 3: Unorganized Market Size Category Sample Size Average Store Storage/ Total Average Size (Sq. Ft) Godown (Sq.Ft.) Store Area

Grocery and 1,299 200 16 216 general store Textiles and 394 231 25 256 clothing shop Fixed fruit and 151 119 10 129 vegetable seller Total 1844* 200 17 217 *Exclude 155 push cart hawkers from the total sample of 1,999 cases Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Impact on Turnover and Profit: The survey revealed that due to the introduction of structured stores, there comes a negative effect on sales and revenue from the unorganized market. The overall impact was approximately 14% decreased in sales and approximately 15% gain during duration of approximately two years. The decreased in a year in turnover and profit is therefore about 8 – 9 percent (Table 4).

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Table 4: Unorganized Retail: Yearly Turnover and Profit Growth Category Sample Size Turnover Average Age of Annual Growth Growth (%) Organized in Turnover Outlets (%) (Months) North 526 -15.9 19 -10.2 West 525 -23.7 15 -19.0 East 96 -33.0 41 -11.1 South 852 2.4 24 1.2 All India 1999 -13.7 21 -8.0 Category Sample size Profit Growth Average Age of Annual Growth (%) Organized in Turnover Outlets (%) (Months) North 526 -17.1 19 -11.1 West 525 -24.1 15 -19.4 East 96 -44.8 41 -16.1 South 852 -1.0 24 -0.5 All India 1999 -15.3 21 -8.9 Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

After the intervention of organized outlets within first four – five years a negative effect is seen which peter out later (Table 5).

Approximately 49 percent of the unorganized retailers announced a downfall in revenue, while remaining announced either growth (27 percent) or unchanged revenue (24 percent). The number of unorganized shopkeepers with decreased turnover was more in the Eastern (71percent) followed by the West (66 percent) and the North (57 percent) and the South recorded very few (30percent) with declining revenue (Table 6). Approximately 59percent of retailers reported decreased in revenue due to organized retail introduction. It was the strongest in the east (83 percent), followed by the west (62 percent), the south (59 percent) and the north (49 percent).

Table 5: Effect of organized outlets on unorganized retail monthly turnover and profit with time

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Age of North West East South All India Organized Outlets

Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%)

Up to 1 235 -23.3 290 -36.4 0 na 388 1.0 913 -22.8 Year

Above 1 Year up 171 -7.9 148 -16.6 0 na 232 2.2 551 -7.5 to 2 Years

Above 2 Year up 70 -8.2 59 -9.4 27 -7.7 40 -0.7 196 -7.4 to 3 Years

Above 3 Year up 40 -5.2 20 -7.8 50 -14 20 -1.2 130 -8.3 to 4 Years

Above 4 Year up 0 na 0 na 10 -19.6 29 0.9 39 -1.9 to 5Years

Above 5 10 -2.5 8 -6.1 9 -2.6 143 1.2 170 -0.3 Year

Total 526 -11.1 525 -19 96 -11.1 852 1.2 1999 -8

North West East South All India

Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%)

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Age of North West East South All India Organized Outlets

Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Sample Turnover Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%) (Nos.) (%)

Up to 1 235 -20.3 290 -37.1 0 na 388 -4.4 913 -23.5 Year

Above 1 Year up 171 -9.5 148 -15.6 0 na 232 6.1 551 -6.3 to 2 Years

Above 2 Year up 70 -10.5 59 -12.8 27 -13.2 40 0.8 196 -9.9 to 3 Years

Above 3 Year up 40 -6 20 -7.3 50 -13.6 20 -1.3 130 -8.1 to 4 Years

Above 4 Year up 0 na 0 na 10 -26.8 29 -10.7 39 -12.6 to 5Years

Above 5 10 -4.9 8 -6.1 9 -13 143 1.6 170 -0.8 Year

Total 526 -11.1 525 -19.4 96 -11.1 852 -0.5 1999 -8.9 Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Table 6: Retailers with decrease in Turnover (percentage of considered retailers) Items North West East South All India Decrease in 57 66 71 30 49 Turnover Reasons

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Competition 49 62 83 59 59 from Organized Retail Competition 13 6 4 9 9 from Organized Retail All Other 38 32 13 32 32 Factor Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Figure 1: Negative effect of region on unorganized retailers (percent of considered Retailers) Closure of Unorganized Outlets

Not surprising if organized retail existence will lead to closing of unorganized stores. In a survey the retailers have been questioned whether they aware the closing of any simple store due to the existence of organized outlets. Approx. one hundred fifty-one such stores have been reported closed within the period of approx. two years which is approx. 4.2 percent of annual shops closing. In the West, this percentage is somewhere larger at 6.8%, in the North at around 4.5%, in the South at 3.5% and in the East at least at 2.1%. These closure rates are very low in accordance with international standards. data gives a 50 percent closing in four years of operation of low scale shops (Head, 2003). Just 41% of retailers, however, attributed these closures specifically to coordinated retail rivalry. This means that, due to competition from organized outlets, the closing of unorganized retail stores was approx. 1.7 percent yearly. This ranged from an increase of 3.2% in the West to a decrease of 0.4% in the East and 1.5% in the South and 1.6% in the North.

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Fig. 2: Increased Home Delivery Sales (% of retailers reporting Home Delivery)

Fig. 3: Dealing with Competition – All-India

A range of modern technological facilities are recently being used by a subset of conventional retailers and this section will be expanding in the coming time (Table 7). Such as, small retailers ' payments through card, UPI etc. is a new concept which comes due to organized retailers. 10% of these retailers make computerized billing and a further 27% are in the process of utilising it soon. Already, scanning and bar coding is performed by 4 percent and a further 17% expect using it soon. Billing and 66 | P a g e Volume 2, Issue 2, 2019

Amity Journal of Commerce and Financial Review S P Singh stock software is now done with 5 percent, and in the future greater than 19 million will use it. Approximately 10 percent of conventional stores have AC’s and a further 21 percent will install it soon.

Table 7: Technological Facilities in Use by unorganized Retailers (As 5 of Sampled Unorganized Retailers)

Items Currently Available Plan to use in future (Additional) Computerized Billing 10 27 Credit card machine 6 24 Scanning / bar coding 4 17 Computerized accounting / 5 19 inventory control Refrigerant/ freezer/ hot case 36 14 Air Conditioning 10 21 Electronic weighing machine 45 15 Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Table 8: Dealing with Competition by unorganized Retailers (In % Sampled Unorganized Retailers) Item North East West South All-India Would like to change 23 50 39 28 30 business in keeping with modern times Do not have 25 6 22 25 24 resources to change my business Doing this business 32 17 36 23 29 in certain way, I do not see any reason to change Don’t know/ Can’t 20 27 2 24 17 say Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Organized retailers have been spoken about expanding the franchisee partnership to small retailers as a way to help them deal with the negative impact. Surprisingly, unorganized retailers expressed a lack of interest in becoming an organized retailer

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Amity Journal of Commerce and Financial Review S P Singh franchisee. Just 10 percent are willing to take up franchisees on average, and this is hardly 3-4 percent in the East and West, but 18 percent higher in the North.

Fig. 4: Willingness to Become Franchisee of Organized Retailers (% of Sampled Retailers)

Control Sample Survey of Retailers: The above research has shown that, in terms of turnover and income, unorganized retailers have been adversely affected over the past few years. Is this adverse effect confined in the vicinity of organized retailers only to traditional retailers? Further check this, 81 researchers conducted a survey of a group of 805 unorganized grocery stores, fixed fruit and vegetable vendors, and push cart fruit and vegetable vendors ("control sample") away from the organized retailers This was done in four cities, one in each of the four regions (North , East Kolkata, South Hyderabad, and West Ahmedabad). The results of this survey compared to those of typical retailers near organized retailers in the same cities ("treatment sample") are discussed below.

Size and Age of Outlets: The average size and average age of outlets in both samples are identical, as can be seen in Table 9. While there are some variations in each area, the overall store size average is approximately 166 – 167 sq. Ft. the go down included. Likewise, in both cases, the average age of outlets is about nine years.

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Table 9: Average Size and Age of Outlets- Control Sample versus Treatment Sample

City Sample Size Average Size of Store Average Age of Outlet (Sq. Ft.) (Years) Treatment Control Treatment Control Treatment Control Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Delhi 357 363 144 142 10 9 Kolkata 58 60 130 116 14 12 Hyderabad 259 261 171 205 9 9 Ahmedabad 119 121 241 215 6 9 Overall 793 805 167 166 9 9 Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Impact on Turnover and Profit

Table 10 details the comparative position in terms of turnover and benefit in both care and control samples of unorganized retail. The control sample records a total turnover growth of about 2 percent and a profit of about 5 percent over the past year; in the treatment sample, both turnover and profit decreased by about 10 percent per year. This diverse impact is evident in all four cities as between the samples of treatment and control.

Table 10: Impact on Turnover and Profit: Control versus Treatment Sample Treatment Sample Control Sample Average Age % Change Annualized % % Change of Organized Change over the Past Outlets (Years) Year A. Turnover Delhi 1.37 -18.57 -13.92 2.93 Kolkata 3.02 -36.00 -13.74 0.80 Hyderabad 1.97 -2.54 -1.30 4.91 Ahmedabad 1.10 -21.97 -20.19 5.05 Overall 1.65 -16.26 -10.20 2.11 B. Profit Delhi 1.37 -16.29 -12.17 3.54 Kolkata 3.02 -34.77 -13.19 12.10 Hyderabad 1.97 -1.76 -0.90 7.41 Ahmedabad 1.10 -28.46 -26.25 1.5 Overall 1.65 -16.26 -10.30 5.26

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Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

Also observed in the percentage of retailers that reported a decline in sales and income is the dissimilar effect as between the care and control samples. Overall, 50 – 51 percent of unorganized retailers reported a decrease of 83 in turnover and profit in the treatment sample, whereas in the control sample that proportion was only 28-29 percent (Table 11).

Table 11: Proportion of Retailers Showing Fall in Turnover/Profit: Treatment Sample versus Control Sample (in percent) Treatment Sample Control Sample A. Turnover Delhi 57 29 Kolkata 67 32 Hyderabad 31 25 Ahmedabad 64 35 Overall 50 29 B. Profit Delhi 57 29 Kolkata 74 28 Hyderabad 32 24 Ahmedabad 64 33 Overall 51 28 The main reason for this decline was asked of the unorganized retailers who were subject to a decline in turnover and income. In the intervention sample, 50-58 percent of retailers exposed to a decrease in turnover and revenue attributed it to competition from organized retail, while only a 24 – 25 percent attributed it to organized retail in the control sample (Table 12).

Table 12: Reasons for Decline in Turnover/ Profit: Treatment Sample versus Control Sample (% of Sampled Retailers Subject to Decline) Treatment Sample Control Sample A. Turnover 1.Competition from Organized Retail 58 25 2.Competition from Un Organized Retail 12 32 3. All Other Factors 30 43 B. Profit 1.Competition from Organized Retail 50 24

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2.Competition from Un Organized Retail 13 26 3. All Other Factors 37 50 Source: DRS-ICRIER Retail Survey 2007

5. Findings and Conclusion:

In terms of their market size and income, the organized retailers given a negative impact on organized retailers. Unorganized retail has, perhaps as a result of competitive response, maintained levels of employment. With time, the adverse impact on unorganized retailers is declining. Nearness, faith, credit sales, price negotiation, open goods, suitable timings, and home service are the key features which pull the consumers for unorganized retailers. The control sample sees challenges with unorganized retail as the prime cause for sales and profit downfall, whereas treatment sample sees challenges from organized retail as the main cause. Most unorganized retailers lack the resources to improve themselves in terms of technology and infrastructure. The unorganized retailers do not want to close or change their business despite the decline in profits; nor did they want to be the organized retailers ' franchise.

Unorganized retailers need to concentrate on the growth of infrastructure. The unorganized sector should recognize the "Customer is the King" approach as a growth strategy. A fall in earnings is just a temporary phenomenon that can be foreseen. Upgrading technology improves performance, resulting in low prices and increased profits, with a higher consumer base. Indian retailers should come to recognize India's evolving retail landscape and be prepared to cope with organized retail.

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